Shooting guard is probably the deepest position in this draft class, with a few guys likely to go in the second round who could potentially develop into high impact rotation players down the line. But much like point guard, there is very little superstar potential, with Mega Leks’ Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot as the only guy who has shown flashes of a fully-rounded skill-set.

As far as the other four guys in the top five go, Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield and Kentucky’s Jamal Murray should earn NBA paychecks for a long time thanks to their abilities to make lots of shots, but how much they’ll truly matter will depend on the teams they get to play for and what types of shots are created for them. But their defensive and athletic limitations make it hard to imagine them ever developing elite status.

Anadolu Efes’ Furkan Korkmaz is a bet that will take several years to properly evaluate and Syracuse’s Malachi Richardson is almost just as much of a shot in the dark, having flashed the tools and the skill level of the sort of wing teams look for these days but who doesn’t play with a whole lot of intelligence or focus at this point.

Let’s dive into the specifics of each player.

Buddy Hield

Hield is a polarizing figure in some ways.

The 22-year-old from the Bahamas was the best player in college basketball last season, leading Oklahoma to the Final Four and impressing many with his ability to shoot the ball from any spot on the floor.

He’s also a favorite of those who value character particularly high. According to RCSI, Hield arrived at Norman as the 111th-ranked prospect in his high school class, without much hype over his chances to ever reach the pro level. From that point on, he improved every year and is now expected to go in the top 10.

Hield’s top skill is his ability to shoot very well from deep range at a high volume, which is in high demand in this era of the NBA. He is an excellent spot-up gunner – exhibiting great balance elevating off 1-2 footwork, compact mechanics and a quick release. Hield has proven able to hit these shots not only out of standstill position but also in transition and relocating to an open spot around the perimeter off an offensive rebound, aside from making one-dribble pull-ups out of side dribbles to escape closeouts.

He nailed a jaw-dropping 45.7% of his 322 three-point shots last season, at a pace of 9.8 three-point attempts per 40 minutes. That’s remarkable accuracy at a really appealing rate.

Some people have likened his style of play to JJ Redick’s, probably due to the similarity in body composition but I don’t think that’s entirely accurate at this point. Hield has flashed the ability to come off baseline and side screens, set his feet and let it fly but nothing compared to the sort of sprinting from side-to-side around staggered screens at full speed the way Redick does. Maybe he is capable of doing such a thing but that’s not the way he was utilized at Oklahoma.

The skepticism over his status as a top 10 pick regards his ability to do pretty much anything else.

Hield has enough ball-handling, a little hesitation move, a somewhat effective crossover and a well-coordinated step-back routine to create enough separation to pull-up from long range when he’s tasked with creating a shot late in the clock. And he’s proven absolutely able to hit these shots at a pleasing rate as well, nailing 46 unassisted three-pointers last season – according to hoop-math.

But he is not any sort of asset to create on the ball for himself or others on a consistent basis. Hield’s handle is not strong enough to withstand pressure and he’s mostly shown to be a one-speed guy running pick-and-roll. The more he dribbles, the less likely Hield is to create a good shot. He lacks the quickness to turn the corner, craftiness to generate high quality looks from mid-range and burst to attack length at the rim with explosiveness, though he did show nice touch on non-dunk finishes when he’s managed to beat the opposing big to the goal on straight-line drives – converting 64% of his 184 shots at the rim last season. He’s also consistently struggled to put teammates in scoring position, lacking court vision on the move – posting 12% more turnovers than assists over his four years at Oklahoma.

There’s also skepticism over whether he can defend at even an average level. Hield has average measurables for a shooting guard – possessing a six-foot-five, 212-pound frame with a six-foot-nine wingspan. Those are good enough tools to reasonably expect him to develop into at least a “zero” defender (doesn’t help but doesn’t hurt) in time, though that’s not necessarily the case yet, since Hield has lapsed focus on quite a few instances defending off the ball.

But the problem is he does not add much optionality, lacking the lateral quickness for a coach to feel comfortable having him defend opposing point guards around ball-screens and the length needed to make a true difference guarding bigger wings. That said, I do think he might offer some switch-ability, picking up less threatening true big men on switches, as he does put in the effort in one-on-one instances and posted above average defensive rebounding rates over the last two seasons – according to our stats database.

Hield is, therefore, not the perfect prototype wing for this era - one that is prioritizing guys with the optimal combination of length and lateral quickness in order to guard positions up and down and, aside from hitting open threes, also able to run side pick-and-roll in a pinch and pass on the move in order to keep the offense moving.

Hield is, however, a sick shot maker and I think that’s why he’s ultimately rated as a top 10 guy in this draft. Seems ridiculous when written like this but making shots matters a lot. It’s why Devin Booker and Kristaps Porzingis were able to come in and contribute right away.

That obviously doesn’t mean Hield has no bust potential, though. As we’ve seen with guys like Nik Stauskas, Doug McDermott and Jimmer Fredette, the ecosystem a shooter like that (zero on defense at best, dependent on others to get shots) is in can be the difference between sticking around a rotation, sticking around the bottom and sticking around the league at all.

Jamal Murray

Much like Hield, Murray’s top skill is also his outside shooting. His stats were not as jaw-dropping but his 40.8% efficiency on 277 three-point shots at a rate of 8.7 attempts per 40 minutes was also very impressive.

He displayed some of the same skills as a gunner, able to hit shots on the move – in transition, running to the ball on dribble-handoffs and coming off staggered screens out of floppy sets.

Murray isn’t as prolific rising off the bounce, though. His mechanics on catch-and-shoots are excellent; he dips for rhythm very quickly, elevates in balance and has a quick compact release. But he pulls the trigger from a relatively low point, just over his forehead, which hasn’t mattered much with people closing out to him but has made it difficult for him to get his shots off comfortably with an opponent on his hip.

And that opponent was almost always on his hip because Murray is not particularly quick attacking off the dribble, made evident by the ecosystem he was a part of at Kentucky. That team could not space the floor adequately, often playing two post men and non-shooter Isaiah Briscoe together. In that context, Murray was exposed as unable to create enough separation to pull-up from midrange effectively or get to the rim in straight isolations and out of ball reversals. According to hoop-math, attempts at the basket amounted to just 20% of his shot profile.

But in the few instances he was put in the pick-and-roll or had the aid of catching-and-going off a live dribble, Murray proved himself a viable threat to penetrate the lane. His finishing at the basket was a mixed bag, as he even flashed some explosiveness to attack the rim with power on straight-line drives and elevating out of one foot on a few occasions but didn’t look as athletic dealing with size in traffic in many others – though he did showcase a nifty floater to shoot over length from the in-between area.

As a passer out of dribble penetration, Murray is good but not great. He can recognize weak-side shooters and garbage men at the dunker spot left open by the defense collapsing against his drives. I think his thoroughly unimpressive 12% assist-rate and 0.94 assist-to-turnover ratio were mostly consequences of his role as an off-ball threat. But even when he had the opportunity to run offense for the Canadian National Team at the 2015 Pan American Games and the World Team at the 2015 Nike Hoop Summit, Murray was more likely to create a shot for himself than others.

Some teams are probably flirting with the idea of having Murray play point guard for significant portions of games. That could be fine if he got to play in an environment like the one CJ McCollum enjoys in Portland (with a well-spaced floor and constantly put in the pick-and-roll or attacking closeouts) or work out very poorly if they just put him in an island and can’t open up driving lanes any better than Kentucky.

That’s as far as offense goes, at least. On the other end, having Murray defend opposing point guards should be a non-starter. He can’t get low enough to defend in a stance and lacks the lateral quickness to keep pace with the speed demons that play that position.

The problem is that Murray also doesn’t have the length (six-foot-six wingspan) to be a particularly effective defender against wings, compounded by the fact he generally doesn’t play with much energy or physicality as well. On top of it, he’s not especially adept at forcing turnovers or an above average contributor in the defensive glass.

Not only he’s unlikely to add any sort of value on defense due to his physical limitations, Murray will probably need to be actively hidden in order not to compromise the system around him at the pro level.

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot

Luwawu-Cabarrot is the one shooting guard in this draft who has shown some potential of becoming a true superstar someday down the line. However, he is expected to get picked late in the lottery because he alternated flashes of spectacular brilliance with maddening indiscipline playing for Mega Leks in the Adriatic League.

At his best, the 21-year-old Frenchman is everything you would want in a wing for this era of the NBA:

• he is equipped with a six-foot-seven, 205-pound frame and a seven-foot-one wingspan;
• he’s proven able to attack length at the rim with explosiveness elevating out of one foot in transition, the secondary break and on straight-line drives out of the pick-and-roll or blowing by closeouts;
• he showcased nice court vision reading the defense from the perimeter when the opponent showed hard on the pick-and-roll to keep him out of the lane and touch to deliver scoring opportunities for his teammates on the money, assisting on 16.2% of Mega Leks’ scores when he was on the floor last season – according to our stats database;
• he nailed 36% of his 176 three-point shots, at a pace of seven attempts per 40 minutes – with smooth mechanics off the catch;
• he can get low in a stance defending on the ball, keep pace stride by stride with smaller players in space, use his length to contest shots effectively and pitch in on the defensive glass at an above average clip.

Luwawu-Cabarrot is perfect.

Except for all the times that he isn’t:

• often losing the man he's responsible for defending on the weak-side;
• regularly predetermining ahead of time what he is about do on a play without taking the defense into account - resulting in the many times where he drove into a crowd and had the ball stripped from him in traffic or had his defender contain his dribble penetration because he was not thrown out of balance by the ball-screen or the dribble move and threw up a garbage shot off the bounce (averaging a very sad 0.66 point per possession on 204 plays in isolation and pick-and-roll last season, according to research by Draft Express);
• constantly taking asinine risks on crosscourt passes against a set defense, posting a sky-high 17% turnover-rate and a displeasing 0.97 assist-to-turnover ratio as consequences.

The argument could be made that all of the weak points in Luwawu-Cabarrot’s game are fueled by the freedom he was given to stretch his wings at Mega Leks and that once his playing time becomes dictated by a ratio of smart play-dumb play, he’ll cut down on his mistakes. That’s possible.

But if all that dumb decision making is imprinted in his DNA by now, Luwawu-Cabarrot will forever be one of those guys who disappoint you by being a lot more interesting in theory than in reality.

Furkan Korkmaz

647 minutes. That’s the playing time Furkan Korkmaz logged in 56 appearances for Turkish giant Anadolu Efes last season. The reason is simple: the 18-year-old teenager is not yet physically developed to earn a consistent spot in the rotation of a team that is seeking wins, and lots of them.

Korkmaz has a skinny 185-pound frame in the context of his six-foot-eight height. Lacking any sort of strength and physicality, he’s a massive liability on defense at this point of his development. Korkmaz can’t contain dribble penetration through contact, gets bullied in the post and doesn’t contribute with steals or defensive rebounds. 

He also hasn’t managed to play with much force on offense either, lacking burst to get by his man in isolation and turning the corner out of the pick-and-roll. Korkmaz has showcased rather impressive athleticism throwing down some impressive dunks in workouts and in the Turkish League All-Star Game but does not play that way in actual games at this point, never getting to the rim in the first place and then never displaying any explosiveness attacking rim protection with power in the few times he does get there.

But Korkmaz is assured to get drafted in the first round due to his combination of height and skill level.

In the pros, he’s only been a weak-side shooter, though a damn good one – converting 40.8% of his 181 three-point shots over the last two seasons. Korkmaz doesn’t get much elevation off the ground but fully extends himself and has good length, so he can get his shots off comfortably against a contest. His mechanics are also excellent, dipping the ball for rhythm and turning his body in the air.

But in the junior ranks, Korkmaz also proved himself capable of shooting on the move and, more importantly, creating for himself and others off the dribble. As mentioned above, he can’t blow by anyone and his handle isn’t all that solid but it’s decent enough for him to go side-to-side in straight isolations and snaking the pick-and-roll to generate mid-range jumpers. Korkmaz also flashed the ability to pass out of dribble penetration relatively well, as his height allows him to see over the defense in traffic.

Drafting him represents a 50-50 proposition. He’s proven himself to be a sick shooter but if his body doesn’t develop, he’s probably unplayable at the NBA level. But if it does (keep in mind he’s about turn 19) and makes it more reasonable for him to be hidden on defense, all of a sudden you have a tall shooting guard who provides flexibility on offense – and those tend to get drafted a lot higher than where Korkmaz is projected to go next week. 

Malachi Richardson

Richardson went under the radar for most of the season as a first year player on a team that didn’t impress a whole lot and ended up the 10th seed in the tournament.

Then Syracuse reached the Final Four, Richardson applied for the draft to take advantage of the new rules that allowed him to get feedback from the league before make a final decision and now he’s expected to be drafted midway through the first round.

He’s a similar player to Luwawu-Cabarrot, alternating flashes of extremely appealing play with stretches of behavior that is not conducive to team success.

In his best moments, Richardson displayed the ability to maintain his balance through contact and finish against size at the rim, use his seven-foot wingspan to contest shots and shut down passing lanes, nail catch-and-shoot three-point shots in rhythm and make the pocket pass out of the pick-and-roll.

But he was far more prone to taking terrible pull-ups early in the shot clock and playing lazy defense within a system that already didn’t prepare him particularly well for the pros. Despite having a nice shooting stroke, Richardson hit just 35.3% of his 224 three-point shots and 22.5% of his 102 mid-range jumpers – according to hoop-math, consequences of his discouraging shot selection. And Syracuse allowed fewer points per 100 possessions without him on the floor, according to our stats database.

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