RealGM Analysis
The small forward position doesn’t have much depth in this draft class but it’s strong at the top, with three players having some (even if small) potential of developing into stars down line.
Duke’s Brandon Ingram is the youngest and the best shot maker, which is why he is expected to go second overall. Cal’s Jaylen Brown started the season in contention to go in the top three but wasn’t put in the best position to succeed and didn’t improve at all. But he’s shown enough glimpses prior to getting there that some hope that star potential is still there. Meanwhile, Saint Joseph’s DeAndre Bembry has shown the sort of shot creation chops that fuels the 1% chance he might be the next Jimmy Butler (the late first success story, not the same type of player).
Rounding up the top five, Baylor’s Taurean Prince and Bayern Munich’s Paul Zipser could be the sort of wingmen teams are looking for as their fifth-sixth best players in a rotation – which is valuable considering the range they are expected to be drafted.
Let’s dive into the specifics.
Brandon Ingram
Ingram is one of the two best prospects in this draft due to his shot making while standing at six-foot-nine, which is an appealing package.
The 18-year-old lacks explosiveness to get by people in isolation and turning the corner out of the pick-and-roll but has a decent handle and fluidity to go side-to-side to create separation one-on-one and pull-up from mid-range. He can stop on a dime and rise with great balance, getting his shot off comfortably over just about any defender thanks to his length.
That’s also the case off the catch, where Ingram excels up to elite status. His mechanics are clean, he elevates with great rhythm and his release is quick. Ingram hit 41% of his 195 three-point shots, not only spotting up on the weak-side as a floor spacer but also flashing the ability to shoot on the move – coming off pindown screens and even working as the screener on pick-and-pops.
He fully extends himself, which together with his length leads to a high release point in his shot that makes it tough for opponents to contest effectively. Ingram can also take advantage of that ability to shoot over defenders by taking smaller wings into the post. His lack of strength has hurt him in a couple of matchups, with opponents pushing him out of deep position, and he is not looking to get physical with power moves but a couple of bumps is all he needs to create enough separation for a short turnaround pull-up that often tends to be a good look.
By midseason, Ingram had shown the ability to get to the rim by relying on a nifty spin move that it made tough for defenders to contain his momentum, displaying impressive coordination moving in tight spaces, and finish with explosiveness elevating out of one foot.
But that aggressiveness pursuing the rim declined in the second half of the year and Ingram looked less capable of attacking length at the basket with burst against tougher competition. According to hoop-math, he shot 58.8% at the rim last season, with such attempts accounting to just 25% of his shot selection. His slight 195-pound frame doesn’t invite much contact, resulting an anticlimactic average of 5.5 foul shots per 40 minutes.
Another undeveloped area of his skill-set is creating for others. Ingram was put in the pick-and-roll with some regularity at Duke but didn’t showcase particularly impressive passing skills. His height gives him a good vantage point against traps and doubles, but he mostly looks to attack the middle of the floor or pull-up from the mid-range against standard coverage.
Ingram is a willing passer in transition and when the defense collapses in a way that makes it hard to miss someone open, but has not shown much in the way of passing instincts for now – assisting on just 11.2% of Duke’s scores when he was on the floor, according to our stats database.
But the biggest concern surrounding his ability to reach elite status regards his defense. Ingram was a minus on that end, with the exception of a few sporadic efforts, and his presence alongside Grayson Allen (another weak link) even forced Mike Krzyzewski to have them guarding in zone a whole lot more than in previous years.
He defends flat-footed, quite often not getting in his stance. His closeouts are also an issue, as opponents have been able to go around him off the dribble and attack the basket with a lot of ease.
Ingram’s fluidity and length is supposed to make him an asset to guard multiple positions but that’s definitely not the case right now. He can’t defend smaller players, unable to get low and navigate over ball-screens. And he can’t guard bigger players while his frame doesn’t develop, lacking size and physicality to hold ground in the post and box out under the defensive glass.
Jaylen Brown
Brown is one of the best athletes in this class; six-foot-seven, 225 pounds, seven-foot wingspan, fluid running up and down the court, and able to jump off the floor in a pinch.
He can handle and finish at the rim with explosiveness on a straight line in space; in transition, the secondary break, attacking closeouts and going north and south in the pick-and-roll. Through such instances, Brown took 42.7% of his shots at the rim and converted them at a 61.6% clip, according to hoop-math. His large frame invites a lot of contact, resulting in 9.2 foul shots per 40 minutes.
Also of note is the fact that he has flashed the ability to take smaller players into the post from time-to-time, something Joe Johnson (a wing of similar physical profile) showed can be a tremendous asset if well developed. Brown can’t make turnaround, fade-away jump-shots very well yet but shows decent footwork to get around his man while lowering his dribble and lay it up at the rim.
Brown is a battering ram.
His skill level is not as impressive, though.
He is a lousy shooter, both off the catch and off the dribble – missing 70% of his 100 three-point shots and 70% of his 113 two-point jumpers, an issue made worse by his horrible shot selection. Every shot Brown takes looks different, whether the issue is the release, the balance or the footwork.
Cal didn’t provide adequate space for him when he handled the ball from the perimeter in the half-court, often playing a seven-footer and Ivan Rabb together. But Brown’s poor decision making against a set defense, often driving into a crowd, and his poor recognition of people left open are on him – represented by his terrible 0.64 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Then there is the matter of his defense. Brown has the strength, the length and lateral quickness to become an elite defense – one who offers switch-ability and optionality, as he’s proven able to hold ground in the post and box out bigger players.
But he was not that sort of impact player at Berkeley. Other than rebounding, Brown didn’t translate his athleticism into actively helping finish possessions. Despite his ability to leap off the ground in a pinch and his positioning defending close to the basket by playing many of his minutes as a small-ball power forward, Brown blocked just 22 shots in 34 appearances. Moreover, all that length has not yet resulted in him shutting down passing lanes and he has not defended with active hands guarding on the ball, recording just 27 steals all season.
Taurean Prince
Much like Brown, Prince also has an impressive physical profile, an undeveloped skill level and question marks with regards to his defense.
But while there are people who believe there is a chance Brown can become a shot creator in time, holding out hope for his superstar potential, no one feels the same about Prince, which is why he’s expected to get drafted 10 or 15 spots lower.
Prince even did a little of pull-up shooting out of straight isolations, post up work and passing out of dribble penetration at Baylor but his handle isn’t much, his decision making in traffic is suspect, he’s never shown particularly adept skills as a passer and can’t get by anyone off the bounce.
Prince projects as a weak-side guy in an NBA offense and there’s good reason to believe he will productive in that role. He’s not the sort of shooter who can come off staggered screens, set his feet and let it fly but proved himself a reliable open shot shooter spotting up in the corners – nailing 37.7% of his 299 three-point shots over the last two seasons.
Prince has long strides to attack closeouts on straight line drives and a nice touch to finish around length on non-dunk finishes, converting 64.5% of his 110 shots at the rim last season – according to hoop-math. He can also use his athleticism to make himself a target for lobs diving to the rim when his man lapses focus.
Defensively, Prince also projects as the prototype wing who can offer switch-ability picking up smaller and bigger players thanks to his physical tools; six-foot-eight height, six-foot-11 wingspan, 220-pound frame, strength to contain dribble penetration through contact and hold ground in the post, lateral quickness to defend in space.
But there is very little evidence Prince can translate his combination of size and athleticism into impact play on that end because of the zone system he was a part of at Baylor.
DeAndre Bembry
The reason why Bembry has some star potential is due to his ability to create shots for himself and others in the half-court.
He doesn’t have an explosive first step but can go side-to-side with a bit of a juke move to create some separation to pull-up from mid-range or create an opening to get to the basket, showcasing nice coordination in tight spaces and an excellent touch on non-dunk finishes – converting 69.1% of his 123 shots at the rim last season, according to hoop-math.
Bembry handled in pick-and-roll quite a bit and proved able to make reads on the move, creating high quality looks for his teammates. His height helps him see over the defense in traffic and he has touch on his passes, assisting on 24% of Saint Joseph’s scores when he was on the floor over the last two seasons – according to our stats database.
Aside from playing on the ball, Bembry offers the flexibility of being used as a weak-side threat. His three-point percentage declined over each of the last three seasons (31.2% on 385 attempts in the aggregate) but he’s proven able to be at a minimum a capable open shot shooter.
Defensively, Bembry can’t contain dribble penetration through contact but has lateral quickness to stay in front and a six-foot-nine wingspan to contest mid-range jumpers and attempts at the rim. He offers switch-ability, as he’s proven able to guard smaller players, though not bigger players despite his 207-pound frame.
Aside from the concerns over his shooting, Bembry is expected to go late in the first round because of his average athleticism and skepticism over whether the level of competition he played against at the A-10 conference offers enough certainty his shot creation can translate to the pro level.
Paul Zipser
Much like Prince, Zipser also projects as a weak-side player in an NBA offense, lacking much dynamism playing on the ball or shooting on the move.
He’s developed into a reliable open shot shooter, though. Zipser nailed 41.7% of his 115 three-point shots playing for Bayern Müenchen last season, according to our stats database. His release is a bit methodical and he doesn’t get much elevation off the ground but he fully extends himself and has length, which results in a high release.
Zipser is very athletic on a straight line; in transition, attacking a closeout, catching-and-going off a live dribble. And he can play above the rim as a target for lobs, cutting down the baseline on the weak-side, aside from showing nice touch on non-dunk finishes.
On the other end, Zipser possesses the combination of size and athleticism to potentially develop into a good defender of players his own size, though it’s unclear how much switch-ability and optionality he’s going to offer at the NBA level.
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