At a fundamental level, the Golden State Warriors have two basic paths for the 2016 offseason: they can either clear enough space to make a max offer, or function as an over the cap team to take advantage of those benefits.

The foundation

At present, the league estimate for the salary cap is $94 million for the 2016-17 season, but the final number will not be known until the end of the league audit in early July, which is why the July Moratorium happens in the first place.

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green will combine to make $44.1 million with another $11.1 million for Andre Iguodala, $11 million for Andrew Bogut and just $5.8 million for Shaun Livingston. The only other guaranteed money is owed to Kevon Looney ($1.2 million), Damian Jones ($1 million) and immovable dead money to Jason Thompson ($945,126). 

The Warriors also start the offseason with cap holds for restricted free agents Harrison Barnes ($9.7 million) and Festus Ezeli ($5 million). The team can go over the salary cap to sign either of them with Full Bird rights.

The cap space path

A $94 million salary cap estimate means a player with 7-9 years of experience like Kevin Durant, Nicolas Batum or Al Horford would have a starting salary of approximately $26.5 million.

If Golden State wants to sign one of these players with cap space, their total obligations must be no more than $67.5 million. That includes guaranteed salary, cap holds and roster charges for having less than 12 players. Treating the three incumbent All-Stars as givens leaves just $23.5 million for every other non-minimum holdover and that does not include roster charges, which add up with a ton of open spots (they are $543,471 each).

As a practical matter, that still means retaining only one of Iguodala, Bogut and Barnes, as well as either Livingston or Ezeli but not both. If the cap jumps to about $96 million, it could be possible to squeeze in a Barnes, Ezeli and Livingston combination due to Barnes’ lower cap hold but that would be the absolute tightest to make it reasonable.

While reasonable minds can differ, in my eyes this kind of a sacrifice is only worth it for someone of Durant’s caliber. Batum and Horford are both talented but do not push this team over the top for seasons to come and also likely take the Warriors out of the 2017 running, which could be another shot at Durant, or a different member of a more top-heavy free agent class.

Beyond losing valuable contributors, becoming a below the cap team would also require sacrificing other tools that would help create a deeper roster both next season and moving forward. Going from over the cap to under the cap requires forces teams to use a smaller Mid-Level Exception (up to two years starting at $2.9 million versus up to four years starting at $5.6 million) plus the Warriors would lose the Bi-Annual Exception ($2.2 million) and their two trade exceptions ($5.4 million and $3.2 million). Again, giving up those team-building tools would be worth it for Durant but make it even harder to justify anyone lower on the totem pole. 

Over the Cap

Fundamentally, the Warriors working this summer as an over the cap team would be more of a maintenance/retention path, at least in the short term. While the front office could consider moving veterans like Bogut for a reasonable return, there would be no urgency to it and the best offers might come early next season when teams have centers go down to injury. After all, that is how Phoenix got a first round pick for Marcin Gortat and his expiring contract from the Wizards back in 2013. 

The biggest decisions on this path would involve Barnes and Ezeli. While bringing both back helps the team in the short term, the largest consideration has to be further down the road. A reasonable thought process for matching an offer sheet to either would be looking forward one year in the future and figuring out how their contract will look on the trade market at that point.

In 2017, Curry will still have a low cap hold while Iguodala, Bogut and Livingston will all be free agents, meaning it will likely be their last chance to go after high-end talent using cap space. If Barnes and/or Ezeli sign contracts that will look reasonable at that point, Golden State can either keep them at that price or trade them to clear space for Durant, Serge Ibaka, Gordon Hayward or whoever else they are interested in. Going above that line means clearing cap next summer will require giving up an asset and they still owe their 2017 first round pick to Utah for their last salary dump (Biedrins and Jefferson to sign Iguodala in 2013).

For reference, using the current estimate the Warriors have about $47 million to work with in 2017 at the moment but any immovable deals they sign this summer running beyond 2016-17 shrink that number. 

The fortunate part of this decision-making process is that Barnes is a rare enough commodity as a forward who can hit open shots and defend multiple positions that even a max salary should be desirable to some teams. After all, he would have about three years and $72 million left next offseason when max salaries could be $25 million, $30 million and $35 million depending on experience level and most of the players worth those prices will be gone quickly. Barnes will be expensive compared to the bargains Green and Thompson have become but even a somewhat underwhelming campaign should be enough to make him an asset to some teams at $24 million a year in 2017.

Ezeli’s potential contract this summer contains substantially more variance but it could work in the Warriors’ favor. He turns 27 before opening night of next season and has missed 72 regular season games over the last two years, which comes on the heels of sitting out the entire 2013-14 season. It only takes one team to make a big offer sheet and change the calculus but finding that team may be harder than expected.

Staying over the cap also facilitates retaining smaller contributors from this history-making season. Bringing back those veterans willing to take reasonable deals allows the Warriors to use their Mid-Level Exception and Bi-Annual Exception on new talent and opens up use of their small trade exceptions before they expire late in July. The 2017 possibility should make it easier for the front office to say no to long contracts but that should not dissuade ring chasers from coming on board. Some veterans like Mo Speights will take a payday elsewhere but the Warriors should be able to build a deeper team with some additional versatility and shooting on the perimeter.

The rapidly rising salary cap forges two distinct paths that the Warriors can choose between. Fortunately for them, the max-level free agents (i.e. Durant) should announce their 2016-17 teams before Barnes and Ezeli are even allowed to sign offer sheets so the Warriors will have much more information at their disposal before needing to decide.