Technically, every NBA draft alters the course of basketball history, but 2011’s was special. Five years later, it presents dozens of significant What Ifs?, from head-scratching disappointments and unexpected superstars to world champions and identical twins. This draft had it all.

But beyond that, and fully understanding that each one of these things is ultimately a total crapshoot, this draft confirmed just how hard it is to predict which league-wide trends will stick and which will dissolve.

Talent is typically the most significant factor when choosing one prospect ahead of another, but the draft can also serve as an insightful examination into the skill-sets that are ostensibly en vogue for teams trying to win both now and later. 

Seeing five years into the NBA’s future is like driving on a pothole-tattered road with two flat tires on a foggy night. But evolution is inevitable, and the overriding priority in today’s league was understandably overlooked back in 2011. Versatile wings who can shoot threes, handle the ball, and guard multiple positions are pearls. If general managers knew then what we know now, the 2011 draft would look very different than this:

1. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers

2. Derrick Williams, Minnesota Timberwolves

3. Enes Kanter, Utah Jazz

4. Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers

5. Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors

6. Jan Vesely, Washington Wizards

7. Bismack Biyombo, Charlotte Bobcats (via Sacramento Kings)

8. Brandon Knight, Detroit Pistons

9. Kemba Walker, Charlotte Bobcats

10. Jimmer Fredette, Sacramento Kings (via Milwaukee Bucks)

11. Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors

12. Alec Burks, Utah Jazz

13. Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns

14. Marcus Morris, Houston Rockets

The omissions are blasphemous. Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and, to a lesser extent, Chandler Parsons and Tobias Harris, weren’t expected to make All-Star teams, win awards or secure max contracts when they entered the draft, but each had a relatively high floor given how desirable their physical tools quickly became. Enes Kanter, Tristan Thompson, Jonas Valanciunas and Bismack Biyombo were all taken earlier, even though their flaws lower their ceilings in a league that now favors perimeter-oriented prowess.

But back then the league had yet to morph into what it’s become: an analytically charged state of continual metamorphosis. Size was more important than space. The Los Angeles Lakers won two titles behind a massive frontline, and one of the best players in the league was a ball-pounding point guard who couldn’t shoot. LeBron James’ Miami Heat were on the cusp of accidentally embracing small ball, but they also had LeBron James.

Here’s how the lottery might’ve played out if that same pool of players were selected right now.

1. Kawhi Leonard, Cleveland Cavaliers

Heading into the 16-17 season, Leonard is the most complete player in the NBA—not just because one Finals MVP is already nestled between two Defensive Player of the Year trophies. From his body type to his skill-set, Leonard is biological weaponry in today’s NBA. He has three-point-contest-contending accuracy—his percentage jumped from 34.9 to 44.3 percent last season—but doesn’t have to rely on his outside shot to overwhelm the competition.

He’s one of the most efficient post-up threats in the league, and just as lethal as Kevin Durant in isolation. At 25 years old, he’s one of the five best players in the world, has more Win Shares per 48 minutes than everyone else in this draft class and is only a few points short of career 50/40/90 shooting splits.

With fingertips that morph into miniature vacuum cleaners whenever a loose ball floats anywhere near by, Leonard is a Vitruvian Man for the 21st century. Right now, Leonard’s only flaw is that he’s too physically imposing, meaning there’s often no need to set teammates up when he’s long, strong and fast enough to create an open shot for himself whenever he wants.

His defense alone is worthy of its own induction into the Hall of Fame.

2. Klay Thompson, Minnesota Timberwolves

Five years after whiffing on the opportunity to snag Thompson, a transcendent shooter who would have been a perfect fit beside Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love, Minnesota’s future somehow looks perfectly fine, thanks to Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Tom Thibodeau.

But having Thompson still would’ve been pretty sweet. Thompson has never shot below 40 percent behind the three-point line in his five NBA seasons. He’s an above-average on-ball defender and provides plenty of space, whether lingering in the corner or coming off a pin-down screen.

He’s tall enough to knock down contested shots but sometimes pulls the trigger a bit too early in the shot clock, or before his feet are set. Those mistakes or forgivable, though, when you’re a top-10 player.

3. Kyrie Irving, Utah Jazz

The 2011 draft’s first overall pick is ultimately a smaller, more creative version of Russell Westbrook. Owner of perhaps the most aesthetically pleasing handle in the world, Irving is slick enough to get wherever he wants, whenever he wants. Sometimes that works in his team’s favor and sometimes it’s poisonous.

But, atrocious defense aside, Irving’s paranormal scoring flair makes him a net positive—even if he’d rather take a low-percentage shot and disengage from his teammates than move the ball and make everybody feel involved.

Irving’s selfishness is both his best friend and worst enemy. But he’s also 24 years old and fresh off one of the most magical individual postseason runs any point guard has had in recent memory.

4. Jimmy Butler, Cleveland Cavaliers

Selected 30th overall, behind Nolan Smith, Chris Singleton, Iman Shumpert, Norris Cole, and several others, Butler’s two-way tenacity is exactly what every team in the league wants.

He doesn’t space the floor as well as Leonard or Thompson, but last year Butler averaged more assists than both of them combined. Butler gets his while still making those around him better. He comfortably defends three positions, is effective finishing around the basket (and initiating contact) and saves his best basketball for the fourth quarter.

Butler checks off several important boxes and he’s one of the best 15 players in the league.

5. Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors

Having a traditional seven-foot center in today’s NBA isn’t a death sentence. Size doesn’t matter as much as it used to, but that doesn’t mean it’s useless.

No, Valanciunas can’t reliably step out and defend ball-handlers outside of the paint. (A big reason why he only cracked the 30-minute barrier 12 times last season.) But don’t go at him one-on-one: Opponents shot just 33.3 percent on post-ups against Valanciunas last year, a terrific number that prohibits the need to send help and force awkward rotations against (the admittedly few) teams with offensively imposing big men.

Valanciunas’ offensive rebounding was a monstrous game-changer in the playoffs before a badly sprained ankle effectively ended his season. He’s a decent option with his back to the basket (usually from the left block) and does a good job freeing guys like Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan from their defenders with bone-crunching screens.

6. Chandler Parsons, Washington Wizards

Pending two knees that allow his best days to still lie ahead, Parsons is a handful. Very few 6’10” players can hold the ball 25 feet from the basket and be a realistic threat to shoot, drive, or pass. Defense is a concern, but as a small-ball four, Parsons creates impossible mismatches for the opposition.

He can serve as a primary or secondary ball-handler, and his decision-making out of the pick-and-roll will be fun to watch on a Grizzlies team that will (hopefully) have healthy Marc Gasol lined up at center.

7. Isaiah Thomas, Charlotte Hornets

When the Celtics get to the playoffs, opposing teams go out of their way to attack the 5’9” Thomas. It’s an undeniable problem, but as the best player and lone All-Star on a 48-win team that couldn’t score when he sat on the bench, Thomas proved to be an indispensable go-to scorer last season.

How? He never took his foot off the pedal. Thomas has unnatural confidence attacking the basket, and no player in the league averaged more drives last season. He’s a dangerous catch-and-shoot threat and on the fringe of being accurate enough to demand the defense’s respect pulling up off the bounce behind the three-point line.

Thomas also isn’t afraid of contact, and maintains his efficiency by living at the free-throw line. (Last year, Thomas’ free-throw rate was higher than Anthony Davis, Paul George, and Kevin Durant’s.) His size isn’t ideal, but any player who routinely forces the defense to trap pick-and-rolls is uber-convenient. Boston is lucky to have him as its starting point guard.

8. Kemba Walker, Detroit Pistons

A slight step down from Thomas, Walker posted his highest field goal percentage last season and it was 42.7. Not great. He makes good decisions and rarely turns it over (relative to how often the ball is in his hands), but Walker can’t be considered above-average at his position until he proves last year’s three-point shooting wasn’t a fluke.

9. Tobias Harris, Charlotte Hornets

An athletic wing who can play small and power forward went from luxury to necessity. If you don’t have one there’s a good chance you can’t win it all. (The Los Angeles Clippers might be the lone exception to this rule.) Even with a suspect outside shot, Harris technically falls into this category (he made 37.5 percent of his threes after Orlando traded him to the Pistons uniform, but it’s probably a blip), and much about his night-to-night production is still a question mark.

Harris only played a quarter of his minutes at the four while in Detroit, but that may very well become his most effective position beside Andre Drummond.

10. Reggie Jackson, Sacramento Kings

Having a point guard who averaged 22.1 points and 7.3 assists per game is great, but Jackson should be a better defender and isn’t quite efficient enough to take the shots he does.

11. Enes Kanter, Golden State Warriors

For big men, it’s hard to log meaningful time in an NBA rotation if you can’t provide some level of competence on the defensive end. Kanter doesn’t start for this very reason, but he earns his money grabbing rebounds and frequently putting the ball in the basket whenever he’s in the paint.

12. Bismack Biyombo, Utah Jazz

Biyombo’s offensive limitations aren’t the worst thing in the world so long as nobody ever passes him the ball when he isn’t launching his body towards the rim. Bigs who can rebound, protect the rim, switch screens, hedge and recover, and provide some vertical spacing, are all a team needs from its starting center right now. Biyombo does all these things reasonably well.

13. Nikola Mirotic, Phoenix Suns

A majority of Mirotic’s points come from behind the three-point line and at the charity stripe. That’s not a bad thing when you’re 6’10” and made 39 percent of your threes last season.

14. Tristan Thompson, Houston Rockets 

Thompson was a stud as Cleveland’s starting center throughout its Finals run, but how much of his success is due to being in a perfect situation? He’s a beast rebounder, but what else is appealing? The ability to switch screens and capably defend quicker guards on the perimeter? Sure, but that only carries so much weight. 

Does he space the floor? No. Can he pass? A little bit, but not really. Can he protect the rim for 82 games as a full-time center? Nah. Basketball is a game of match-ups, and Thompson’s strengths were perfect against the Warriors. But without Cleveland’s shooting and elite talent able to capitalize off his rebounding and energy, Thompson doesn’t bring much to the table.