A lot has been made in the past few weeks about how these playoffs symbolize a changing of the guard in the league. Such talks are premature, as the Dallas Mavericks, one of the oldest teams in the league will battle the Oklahoma City Thunder in their bid to represent the Western Conference in the finals for the first time since 2006.

Aside from the fact that both teams employ superstar forwards, and start defensive minded shooting guards, these teams don’t have many things in common. The Thunder are extremely young, while the Mavericks have a single starter under the age of 30. The Thunder are trying to continue their growth in their second playoff appearance since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City, while the Mavericks are trying to make their 11th straight playoff appearance result in rings. Ultimately, these differences should factor into what should be a great series.

The key on offense for Oklahoma City will be their shot distribution, and ability to get in the paint. The Mavericks will likely do everything they can to keep the ball out of Durant’s hands; any game in which Westbrook has more field goal attempts than Durant will likely swing in the Mavs’ favor. It will be up to Westbrook to ignore a personal mismatch every time down the floor, in order to get his teammates involved. Secondly, while the Mavericks defense has dramatically improved, they still struggle with teams that attack off the dribble. Anytime Kidd, Terry, or Barea are on the floor, the Thunder should look to penetrate the lane. This is something they should be able to do on a consistent basis, and will result in foul trouble for Chandler, Dallas’ defensive anchor, or open shots for their shooters once the Mavs are forced to collapse.

The defensive strategy for Oklahoma City sounds fairly simple in theory, but will be very difficult to maintain in practice. The Thunder will undoubtedly give Nowitzki a number of different looks, but to little or no avail. Nowitzki is going to get his numbers regardless of who the Thunder throw at him. With that in mind, the Thunder should try to take everyone else out of the game. It is no secret that Nowitzki is the only Maverick who can create for himself. In short, if the Thunder play solid man to man defense, and stay at home on guys like Terry and Peja, they should be able to find success in their matchups. 

In the same vein, Dallas needs to put the Thunder in situations where they are forced to react. Look for a lot of pick and roll action with Nowitzki setting screens for either Terry or Barea, resulting in a great look for Nowitzki if the defense switches, or Terry and Barea getting into the lane for an easy layup if the defender sticks on Nowitzki. Also, don’t be surprised if you see the Kidd to Chandler alley-oop at a more frequent rate in this series; Kendrick Perkins is great at showing on picks, but lacks the mobility and athletic ability to stay with Chandler once he slips it. Finally, Dallas needs to continue their unparalleled execution on this end of the floor in order to remain a dominant force in these playoffs. This means continuing to do all the little things the right way: making crisp passes, making the extra pass, setting hard screens, getting the right timing on these screens, etc. If they are successful in maintaining this execution, they should continue to get good looks for Peja, Terry and the rest of the gang, which usually translates to wins.

While guarding Durant is no easy task, the Mavs stand a better chance than the Thunder do at guarding Dirk. Expect to see Marion, Stevenson, and even Brewer at times to take their shot at him. If their past matchups are any indication, look for Kidd to give Westbrook plenty of space, tempting him to shoot. The advantage for the Mavs is that this means that Durant isn’t getting his touches, and that the Thunder aren’t getting into their offensive sets. Also, look for Chandler and Haywood to aggressively help off of Perkins and Collison to meet Westbrook and co. at the rim; this should work in the Mavericks’ favor as neither Oklahoma City big man is athletic, or has a great touch around the basket. 

In closing, while this series may not have the flare of its Eastern Conference counterpart, it features teams led by two of the most offensively talented players in the league. Expect a competitive series, with high-quality basketball. Ultimately, I predict the Mavericks in 6.

While the Thunder will likely be the class of the Western Conference within a few years, these Mavericks are a team on a mission. Fielding a veteran team led by a previous league MVP, and multiple former all stars that have come so close, but have never had the chance to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy, this team realizes that this year might be their last shot at winning it all. In the end, their experience, depth, and momentum will carry them into the NBA finals.