Some people complain that the NBA’s draft lottery does not help the worst teams to get better. But I dislike the lottery because most of the time it is another piece of bad news on the calendar. For the vast majority of teams and their fans, there is going to be disappointment. The 4th worst record in the league “falls” to the 6th pick, the 6th worst record in the league “falls” to the 7th pick, and so on. Even when a team holds its position, the fans view it as a loss because they did not jump up to the top. Sure, there are a handful of big winners. And perhaps the big winners help sell tickets. But almost everywhere, the day after the draft lottery the fans are complaining that the local team does not have any luck. 

(By the way, this must be the only context where newspapers run stories about the bad luck of not winning the lottery. You would never see the headline: “Bob Mitchell in Santa Fe, New Mexico did not win Powerball for the 530th consecutive week.”)

Irritating a bunch of fans every year does not seem like a smart policy, but the lottery exists to reduce late-season tanking. It supposedly lowers the incentive for teams to lose games on purpose to get a better draft pick. This is particularly important in a sport where a single player can have such a large impact on a team’s success. But even with the lottery you still see numerous star players sitting out with injuries in April. And the perception is that the lottery does not work that well. There must be a better way. Bill Simmons has suggested one remedy, a late season tournament among the bottom eight teams in each conference for the final playoff spot. In Simmons’ system even bad teams would have something to play for late in the year.

But there are clearly other options too. One idea would be to take the league standings on January 1st, and use those for draft order. Even bad teams hope for a good start to the season and a chance to make the post-season, because that sells more tickets. So no team could afford to tank on purpose in December. And the teams that are bad on January 1st should be roughly the same teams that are bad at the end of the regular season. Some people would complain if a team improved after January 1st and still got a top pick. But isn’t that what we want the bad teams to do? Don’t we want them to try to get better? And there could be worse things for the NBA to do than give a star player to a team on the rise. With the January 1st proposal, there could still be tanking just before the cut-off date. But you could randomize the date each year so teams would not know when to lose games. 

Of course, one of the beautiful things about college basketball is that tanking is never optimal. Winning helps recruit better players, not losing. Even bad teams have an incentive for that late season upset. That surprise late win might convince recruits that the program is headed in the right direction. It is one of the great things about the college game.

Speaking of the college game, it is probably time to evaluate some of the players in the draft. I’ll have more to say in the next month, but here are a few early musings on the projected early picks. One thing I’ve learned from watching years of college basketball is that what college basketball fans see is completely different from what NBA teams see. Let’s see how the college fans’ perspective differs:

Kyrie Irving, Duke – It is nice to know that a player that was injured and barely played is viewed more favorably by the NBA than all the productive players and four-year winners. You have to give it to Irving for showing his one-on-one talent in the NCAA tournament, but he has yet to demonstrate that he can run a team yet. That seems like a critical component of a point guard, but I guess he can learn that later.

Derrick Williams, Arizona – An absolute offensive monster that dominated in the Pac-10. Some people felt like he did not take enough big shots, and that he should have been even more aggressive. But he was hard not to love. 

Enes Kanter, Kentucky – Again, how can a player that was declared ineligible and never played college ball be viewed more favorably than the rest of the nation? Well, he’ll always have his Undertaker entrance at Kentucky’s Midnight Madness.

Brandon Knight, Kentucky – He is supposed to be the next in the line of John Calipari point guards, but I think he is more like former Chicago Bull Ben Gordon than current Chicago Bull Derrick Rose. He is quite willing to rise to the occasion and make the big shot, but I’m not sure he really makes his teammates better. The NBA scouts say Knight is trending upward and will be substantially better in another year. But John Calipari seemed pretty adamant that his stock would not be higher with another year in college. Why the disagreement? I think Knight would have had to share time at point-guard next year if he stayed at Kentucky, and that would have been bad for his development.

Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State – Leonard had to declare for the draft because the vast majority of the San Diego State rotation is graduating. If you are Leonard, why take the risk that you struggle on a team without much talent next year? I would have loved to see if he could still dominate with opponents focusing on only him.  But it is certainly not in his best interest to take that gamble.  He was the best player on a 3-loss team, but we still do not have a good handle on how good he can be.

Kemba Walker, UConn – Walker is the player that all college fans love. He took a very young team with low expectations and led them to a national title. The fact that he is substantially behind Kyrie Irving in all projections is why college fans shake their heads at the NBA draft. 

Tristan Thompson, Texas – Thompson’s pure aggressiveness made him a star at Texas. He loved to crash the offensive glass and get to the line. But DeJuan Blair was probably the most aggressive college player in a decade, and he has learned that the NBA post players are a lot stronger. It is hard to see Thompson doing better than Blair in the short run.

Thompson, Kanter, Irving – it is all about potential. And that’s why we watch college basketball for the joy.