The Heat and Mavericks are at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to history, style, and composition.

The Heat are largely an isolation team, with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade being two of the best in the game as individual scorers. Miami goes as they go, and while there is a considerable drop off from Chris Bosh to their 4th best player, this formula has led them to a 12-3 record in the playoffs.

Contrastingly, the Mavericks have a legitimate superstar in Dirk Nowitzki, and flank him by committee, legitimately running nine deep.

Picking the winner of this series based on the performance of LeBron and Dirk may be accurate, but is also a given; if these players fail to perform for their teams, the series will be decided. In the same vein, it is safe to assume that LeBron and Dirk will keep doing what they’ve been doing, and carry their teams to the best of their abilities. With that said, the player that the Heat need to put up big numbers to claim this series is Chris Bosh.

As has been said before, Bosh is the X-factor. Most contending teams have two All-Stars; what make the Heat special is that they have three. So far in the playoffs, the Mavericks have managed to neutralize teams with two All-Stars on the defensive end. Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol were done in four games, while Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were eliminated in five.

This pattern of dominance should continue if the third star of the Heat doesn’t contribute in meaningful ways. Bosh not only needs to successful defend Nowitzki in stretches, but needs to knock down his open shots, and get his numbers. If Bosh is hitting his shots means Tyson Chandler being drawn away from the basket, leaving a much easier path to the basket for Wade and James. Bosh misfiring on the other hand will allow for the Mavs frontline to collapse hard and contest at the rim. With the teammates that he has, Bosh doesn’t even need a dominant series; he just needs a good one. 

The X-factor for Dallas isn’t a single person, but their center position. The play of the Tyson Chandler/Brendan Haywood tandem will be a huge determinant in how this series goes for the Mavs. Despite their loss, the Chicago Bulls defended the Heat as well as they could have in the final minutes of Game 5. Even though LeBron and Wade hit their shots, any and every NBA defense would rather watch those two pull up for jump shots rather than slashing to the basket. With that said, Miami’s strength is doing just that; attacking the rim. While Jason Kidd, DeShawn Stevenson, and Shawn Marion will do their best to keep the Heat superstars from pulling off highlight after highlight, it will be up to Mavs centers to offer strong help defense and challenges.

Miami has yet to face a team with two starting caliber centers who are 7-feet, long, and intimidating. Chandler and Haywood need to limit Bosh, dominate Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem, Jamaal Magloire, and any other player who logs minutes at the center position, while defending the paint against Miami’s perimeter players.