Before even getting into the potential and the probable when it comes to the Warriors’ part in the 'December to Remember' offseason, there are two questions that must be asked and answered by the decision-makers (not publically, of course):

1. What is the best reasonable result for a team whose three best players are Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and David Lee?
2. Are both the most likely outcome and the best result satisfactory?

Those questions must be at the forefront because if that core cannot deliver satisfactory outcomes as the best three players, the changes must come quickly.

In my eyes, having those guys as the three best on a team means being the lower seed in a first-round playoff series and potentially making the second round as a pure best-case scenario. That standing as the reasonable version of an optimal outcome cannot be satisfactory if this ownership group wants to be taken seriously.

With that said, the ways to improve are to keep those three and improve the players around them, bring in a player good enough to knock one or more of them out of the top three, or change at least one of those players with an eye for increasing overall talent and/or salary flexibility.

In some ways, the biggest problem a Curry/Ellis/Lee foundation has centers around the concept of complements and niches. The idea here is that there are different “roles” that a good team has filled, ideally at all times (meaning there are reserves or other starters that can fill some of them when starters sit). That couples with the complements concept that the players on a team have strengths and weaknesses that make sense with each other AND the system they operate in.

The reigning champs in Dallas exemplify many of these ideas as they had a defensive anchor and lead rebounder (Tyson Chandler), lead scorer and No. 1 crunch time scoring option (Dirk Nowitzki), lead perimeter defender (Shawn Marion), and a scheme that made those players and every other pivotal guy on their deep roster make sense with each other. Therein lies the biggest problem with the Curry/Ellis/Lee triumvirate: what two conceivable starters fill the necessary roles a successful team requires without supplanting any one of the three as a top player on the team?

Luckily, the Warriors carry the burden of sorting out their roster at exactly the right time. The combination of changing rules and some intriguing salary flexibility makes now a time that there can actually be improvements that are both significant and feasible.

The first major change centers on an under-reported component of the “Amnesty 2.0” process. The original Allan Houston rule only allowed teams to take the player’s contract off their tax burden and paired it with a system that let those released players sign for minimum salaries wherever they liked. In a system like that, Andris Biedrins or Charlie Bell would have made sense as amnesty cuts should one have been desired. However, the gargantuan second component is that the players cut with Amnesty 2.0 are not free agents- they go through a waiver process (whose mechanics are unclear as of this writing) where teams under the salary cap can bid on those players with the “winning” bid getting the player at that price. This change coupled with the fact that contacts come off the salary cap AND the luxury tax totally changes the dynamics when it comes to making cuts and potentially signing cut individuals.

As Matt Steinmetz properly pointed out this past week, these changes make David Lee a smart and proactive choice for Amnesty 2.0. Thanks to the structure, the best players to waive under this rule are guys who are overpaid with big contracts yet still have value: the analysis centers on the impact of shedding that player’s full salary from the books (financial flexibility) and the difference between their current salary and what they could get offered in the modified waiver process (pure financial cost of the move). These constraints make Lee a reasonable choice if management believes that they can make better use of his salary cap figure than him. In my eyes, that is a clear cut yes.

The fundamental issue with Lee is that he plays power forward, the definition of a non-premium position when we are talking about players not in the true elite of the league (after all, few would argue that Tim Duncan and Charles Barkley were overvalued). Without being a premium rebounder (tied for 56th in the league in Rebound Rate, 38th among players with more than 20 minutes per game) or a premium defender, Lee cannot make a major impact without being a No. 1 scorer or competently defending opposing Centers a majority of the time. David is a solid basketball player and a good guy, which counts for something and will help him get a higher bid in the Amnesty 2.0 waiver process, yet that does not make him a building block for the Warriors moving forward.

The other issue as it pertains to Lee and the amnesty rule is one of timing. One could argue that the Warriors should wait and get value from Lee before doing the amnesty cut. The problem with this is that in order to maximize their flexibility, the team needs to have their other contractual ducks in a row. As such, any Lee amnesty would need to happen before the 2013 offseason when Stephen Curry is eligible for an extension (since he, Monta, Biedrins, and the rest should make it so the financial benefit of shedding Lee’s deal in its entirety pretty minimal at that point). That leaves this summer and next to make the move.

What makes 2011 better than 2012 for this is the confluence of the rule and the dramatic increase in the salary floor from the last CBA to the current one. Since some teams will be grappling with how to do that in a year with remarkably few quality free agents, teams like Sacramento and New Jersey could be flailing with mandatory additions to salary. The lowered price tag and this need could and should drive up the bid on Lee, thus saving the Warriors money and giving them flexibility to use from this December all the way through the 2012-13 season if they so choose. Since Lee’s prohibitively large contract makes him effectively untradeable, using Amnesty 2.0 sooner rather than later gives Golden State more ways to improve the team for the long term.

Beyond the amnesty issue, the time is now for the Warriors to strike on a few other major pieces. Monta Ellis clearly has a role in the NBA, yet that role is not playing next to a PG who is a primary ballhandler and needs to guard opposing point guards. Beyond that, there are teams that seem to have an affinity for Monta that would allow the Warriors to get value in return. If possible, a deal that centered around Rudy Gay for Monta (with the Warriors contributing some additional pieces or taking some salary) makes the most sense among reasonable options. That said, if the team moves David Lee and uses the corresponding space to get an impactful player at either of the forward spots or Center, it could help reduce the negative effects of a Curry/Ellis backcourt, though I feel like the two do not fit as long-term starters next to each other.

Another interesting option would be to go after Chris Paul, Deron Williams, or Dwight Howard. All are clearly elite players in the league, yet I do not see a clear benefit to taking on either of the PG’s since Curry stays under the Warriors’ control for a meaningful period of time and the difference between Deron/CP3 and Steph should continue to thin as his game improves with experience and coaching. Dwight would be fantastic, no doubt about it. If the team can get him to agree to extend, he would be the dream building block for the squad and I would give up whatever it took to get him. Intriguingly, the Warriors have players who would make sense on a new-look Magic team as well as the cap space (with the Lee move) to take on some bad salaries to sweeten the deal. Unfortunately, it all depends on what Dwight wants since giving up what the Magic want for a short-season rental would be insane.

In most circumstances, now would be the time where I write about exactly what I would do if I were in charge of the franchise. While that may very well come in the next week, it should be fun to see what a legitimately potent front office can do with the hand they were dealt and I sincerely hope that ownership gives them the financial green light to make the impactful changes to make this the squad their fanbase has deserved for decades.