RealGM Analysis
In the original three-way trade that would have sent Chris Paul to the Lakers, the New Orleans Hornets would have received a package of Lamar Odom, Luis Scola and Kevin Martin for their departing franchise player.
When David Stern, in his capacity as the acting owner of the Hornets, vetoed this trade for what he dubbed “basketball reasons”, he was widely mocked. His reasoning looked even more suspicious when a predictably bizarre Comic Sans-tinged rant from Dan Gilbert emerged, with the owner of the Cavaliers petulantly demanding that the Lakers not be allowed to acquire another star.
However, in light of the new rumors surrounding Paul’s ultimate destination, Stern may end up being proven correct.
With the Lakers out of the picture, Paul is reportedly favoring the Los Angeles Clippers. And what the Clippers have to offer, in particular the Minnesota Timberwolves’ unprotected first-round pick this season, is far more valuable than any group of veterans New Orleans would have received from Los Angeles and Houston.
Good NBA teams are built around the identity of their best player. Orlando has a roster full of one-dimensional three-point shooters because they have Dwight Howard to protect the rim. Chicago plays a bunch of defensive-minded role players because Derrick Rose can carry their offense single-handedly against most NBA teams.
That’s why there’s no point to trading a superstar for a collection of solid veterans. The team you assemble, without a real identity, isn’t going anywhere. If the original trade had gone through, the Hornets would have had a starting five of Jarrett Jack, Kevin Martin, Trevor Ariza, Lamar Odom and Emeka Okafor.
That’s a decent group, but they would have very little depth behind them. They wouldn’t be in the same class as any of the top eight teams in the new-look West -- Oklahoma City, Dallas, the Lakers, Memphis, Portland, San Antonio, the Clippers and the Pau Gasol-led Rockets. The Hornets would be a .500 team with an outside shot at the playoffs and no real hope for internal improvement.
In a league where losing is rewarded with high draft picks, the worst thing to be is consistently mediocre. A franchise that loses 60 games and gets a top pick is in better shape than a franchise that loses 40 games, as the 40-win one continually watches teams who finish worse acquire the best young players in the draft.
All New Orleans has to do is look at the plight of their most desperate trade partner -- the Houston Rockets. In 2009-10, they finished ninth in the West, but were jumped in the standings last season by a young and rapidly improving Memphis Grizzlies team. After finishing ninth again in 2010-11, they will likely be passed this year by the Clippers, led by a third-year power forward (Blake Griffin) and a fourth-year shooting guard (Eric Gordon).
Next year, their most likely challenger will be a Sacramento Kings team that features Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins; the year after, it will probably be a Utah Jazz team with a front-court led by Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors. The Jazz, who sunk quickly to get high draft picks after trading Deron Williams rather than trying to stay competitive, are a perfect model for how to rebuild after losing a star.
And while New Orleans could plausibly spin off Martin, Scola and Odom for younger players, if that’s the end goal, there’s no reason to add an additional layer of trades in dealing Paul. Because so much of the roster is built around him, dealing the All-NBA point guard for prospects would ensure the team sinks to the bottom of the standings, guaranteeing at least a top-4 pick in what’s projected to be one of the deepest draft classes in a decade.
The Hornets drafted Paul with the No. 4 pick in the 2006 draft, and the draft is the only realistic way for a small-market franchise to acquire that type of elite talent. In dealing Paul, they should ask themselves this question: do I want to be drafting between No. 10-15 over the next two seasons or between No. 1-5? Which path is more likely to return New Orleans to relevance?
That’s why dealing him to the Clippers for a package built around raw second-year players Eric Bledsoe and Al-Farouq Aminu and the Timberwolves’ unprotected first-round pick (which Kevin McHale rather amusingly gave up as the price for turning Sam Cassell into Marko Jaric) is so compelling.
Minnesota won 17 games last season even with Kevin Love playing at an All-Star level. The additions of Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams aren’t likely to lift them too far out of the basement, and their only other high-ceiling young players are the enigmatic duo of Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph, neither of whom “fit” well with Love and Williams.
A Hornets line-up whose best veterans were Ariza, Jack and Okafor, meanwhile, would struggle to win more than 20 games in a normal season. In essence, even more than Bledsoe or Aminu, the most important assets New Orleans would acquire from the Clippers would be two top eight picks in 2012 -- their own and Minnesota’s.
As it stands now, there are at least eight top 6’8+ prospects in the 2012 draft pool -- UNC’s Harrison Barnes and John Henson, UK’s Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones, UConn’s Andre Drummond, Baylor’s Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller and Kansas’ Thomas Robinson. Hit on two of those eight players and you have one of the most intriguing young rosters in the NBA.
Of course, not all prospects work out. There’s still a gamble you don’t draft well, but you’re giving yourself a chance to have a championship-caliber core, or at the very least one capable of 50+ wins. That’s a barrier a core of Odom, Scola and Martin is unlikely to crack.
In an ideal world where the Clippers were forced to find a new owner, they would have a very easy time being sold, even if they were in a much smaller market. Any franchise with two max-caliber stars like Griffin and Gordon is going to be extremely valuable, no matter where they are located.
David Stern is looking to find an owner willing to keep the franchise in New Orleans, which was one of the league’s smallest markets even before Hurricane Katrina. The Saints will always be first there, and an area that has lost one-third of its population since 2006 might not realistically be able to support two professional franchises.
With Paul out the door, the likeliest way for the Hornets to stay is to get lucky and find a star in one of the next two drafts. The trade with the Lakers would have ensured they had little chance to get one, a proposed trade with the Clippers could get them three.
While there’s no way to know what Stern’s motivations actually were in blocking the Lakers trade, there were legitimate “basketball reasons” for his decision.
When David Stern, in his capacity as the acting owner of the Hornets, vetoed this trade for what he dubbed “basketball reasons”, he was widely mocked. His reasoning looked even more suspicious when a predictably bizarre Comic Sans-tinged rant from Dan Gilbert emerged, with the owner of the Cavaliers petulantly demanding that the Lakers not be allowed to acquire another star.
However, in light of the new rumors surrounding Paul’s ultimate destination, Stern may end up being proven correct.
With the Lakers out of the picture, Paul is reportedly favoring the Los Angeles Clippers. And what the Clippers have to offer, in particular the Minnesota Timberwolves’ unprotected first-round pick this season, is far more valuable than any group of veterans New Orleans would have received from Los Angeles and Houston.
Good NBA teams are built around the identity of their best player. Orlando has a roster full of one-dimensional three-point shooters because they have Dwight Howard to protect the rim. Chicago plays a bunch of defensive-minded role players because Derrick Rose can carry their offense single-handedly against most NBA teams.
That’s why there’s no point to trading a superstar for a collection of solid veterans. The team you assemble, without a real identity, isn’t going anywhere. If the original trade had gone through, the Hornets would have had a starting five of Jarrett Jack, Kevin Martin, Trevor Ariza, Lamar Odom and Emeka Okafor.
That’s a decent group, but they would have very little depth behind them. They wouldn’t be in the same class as any of the top eight teams in the new-look West -- Oklahoma City, Dallas, the Lakers, Memphis, Portland, San Antonio, the Clippers and the Pau Gasol-led Rockets. The Hornets would be a .500 team with an outside shot at the playoffs and no real hope for internal improvement.
In a league where losing is rewarded with high draft picks, the worst thing to be is consistently mediocre. A franchise that loses 60 games and gets a top pick is in better shape than a franchise that loses 40 games, as the 40-win one continually watches teams who finish worse acquire the best young players in the draft.
All New Orleans has to do is look at the plight of their most desperate trade partner -- the Houston Rockets. In 2009-10, they finished ninth in the West, but were jumped in the standings last season by a young and rapidly improving Memphis Grizzlies team. After finishing ninth again in 2010-11, they will likely be passed this year by the Clippers, led by a third-year power forward (Blake Griffin) and a fourth-year shooting guard (Eric Gordon).
Next year, their most likely challenger will be a Sacramento Kings team that features Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins; the year after, it will probably be a Utah Jazz team with a front-court led by Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors. The Jazz, who sunk quickly to get high draft picks after trading Deron Williams rather than trying to stay competitive, are a perfect model for how to rebuild after losing a star.
And while New Orleans could plausibly spin off Martin, Scola and Odom for younger players, if that’s the end goal, there’s no reason to add an additional layer of trades in dealing Paul. Because so much of the roster is built around him, dealing the All-NBA point guard for prospects would ensure the team sinks to the bottom of the standings, guaranteeing at least a top-4 pick in what’s projected to be one of the deepest draft classes in a decade.
The Hornets drafted Paul with the No. 4 pick in the 2006 draft, and the draft is the only realistic way for a small-market franchise to acquire that type of elite talent. In dealing Paul, they should ask themselves this question: do I want to be drafting between No. 10-15 over the next two seasons or between No. 1-5? Which path is more likely to return New Orleans to relevance?
That’s why dealing him to the Clippers for a package built around raw second-year players Eric Bledsoe and Al-Farouq Aminu and the Timberwolves’ unprotected first-round pick (which Kevin McHale rather amusingly gave up as the price for turning Sam Cassell into Marko Jaric) is so compelling.
Minnesota won 17 games last season even with Kevin Love playing at an All-Star level. The additions of Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams aren’t likely to lift them too far out of the basement, and their only other high-ceiling young players are the enigmatic duo of Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph, neither of whom “fit” well with Love and Williams.
A Hornets line-up whose best veterans were Ariza, Jack and Okafor, meanwhile, would struggle to win more than 20 games in a normal season. In essence, even more than Bledsoe or Aminu, the most important assets New Orleans would acquire from the Clippers would be two top eight picks in 2012 -- their own and Minnesota’s.
As it stands now, there are at least eight top 6’8+ prospects in the 2012 draft pool -- UNC’s Harrison Barnes and John Henson, UK’s Anthony Davis and Terrence Jones, UConn’s Andre Drummond, Baylor’s Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller and Kansas’ Thomas Robinson. Hit on two of those eight players and you have one of the most intriguing young rosters in the NBA.
Of course, not all prospects work out. There’s still a gamble you don’t draft well, but you’re giving yourself a chance to have a championship-caliber core, or at the very least one capable of 50+ wins. That’s a barrier a core of Odom, Scola and Martin is unlikely to crack.
In an ideal world where the Clippers were forced to find a new owner, they would have a very easy time being sold, even if they were in a much smaller market. Any franchise with two max-caliber stars like Griffin and Gordon is going to be extremely valuable, no matter where they are located.
David Stern is looking to find an owner willing to keep the franchise in New Orleans, which was one of the league’s smallest markets even before Hurricane Katrina. The Saints will always be first there, and an area that has lost one-third of its population since 2006 might not realistically be able to support two professional franchises.
With Paul out the door, the likeliest way for the Hornets to stay is to get lucky and find a star in one of the next two drafts. The trade with the Lakers would have ensured they had little chance to get one, a proposed trade with the Clippers could get them three.
While there’s no way to know what Stern’s motivations actually were in blocking the Lakers trade, there were legitimate “basketball reasons” for his decision.
