When Reggie Johnson returned to the Hurricanes’ lineup, I thought that Miami might be able to compete for 3rd place in the ACC. But his return has not quite provided the spark I anticipated. The Hurricanes offense is better with Johnson on the floor, but the defense has gotten worse, and the defense wasn’t that good to begin with.

But more than the stats, Miami is a team that just seems to be missing something in execution. Durant Scott and Malcolm Grant are fantastic basketball players. But for the last two years, they never seem to make enough plays in crunch time. Wednesday night’s loss at NC State was a perfect example. Miami’s Shane Larkin made an incredible diving steal in the final 20 seconds. He dove out of bounds, seemed to hover horizontally, and miraculously tipped the ball to Scott. Down one point, Miami had a fantastic chance to win the game. But instead of recognizing that there were now 15 seconds left and that Miami could regroup and get a good shot, Scott was out of control. Scott rushed the ball to the basket, took an off-balance shot, and that essentially ended the Hurricane’s chances.

With a weak bubble, Miami’s NCAA profile is still in the discussion. And they’ve been playing like the 39th best team in the nation with Johnson healthy, so they probably should be on the bubble. But I think Jim Larranaga expected to be able to get a lot more out of this group when he left George Mason last spring.

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pythag

Miami (FL) (without Johnson)

107.6

94.5

6

4

0.7921

Miami (FL) (with Johnson)

112.7

96.7

11

7

0.8276

           

Maryland (without Len, Howard)

105.1

105.6

6

3

0.4863

Maryland (full strength)

105.1

97.1

7

6

0.6929

Maryland (without Howard)

101.3

100.5

2

4

0.5197

On the pre-game talk shows in DC they keep talking about how Maryland is very close to being a great team. I’m not quite buying it. Even when Pe’Shon Howard was healthy and Maryland was at full strength, they were only playing like the 100th best team in the country. I think Mark Turgeon will eventually have Maryland playing at a very high level, but if they make a run in the ACC tournament this year, it should be considered a minor miracle. This team is not that close.

There are so many coach-of-the-year candidates in the Big East that Buzz Williams won’t get consideration. But he has done a wonderful job surviving without Chris Otule and Davante Gardner. Yes, the team’s defense has slipped a little bit without those big men in the middle, but not much.

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pythag

Marquette (At least one)

112.1

89.2

18

4

0.9127

Marquette (No Gardner or Otule)

113.6

92.9

6

2

0.8872

           

Dayton (with Benson)

108.2

95.8

10

4

0.7762

Dayton (without Benson)

115.4

102.5

8

7

0.7717

           

Northwestern (with Mirkovic)

111.6

99.6

12

7

0.7623

Northwestern (without Mirkovic)

123.2

104.0

5

5

0.8499

There is a common thread in the table. With a smaller lineup, the offense gets better and the defense gets worse. Dayton has been a different team without Josh Benson. They aren’t necessarily better or worse, but their games are more high scoring. It is quite possible that Northwestern’s offensive improvement since Mirkovic left the lineup is just a coincidence. Perhaps they were all slumping in January and just got hot in February. But I think the loss of the team’s center is causing at least some of this result. With a 99.8 ORtg, Mirkovic was a black-hole in an otherwise prolific Northwestern attack.

That said, losing a player is never a great thing for a team. Wouldn’t the Cats have wanted Mirkovic on the floor to try and defend Jared Sullinger in the final seconds of Wednesday night’s loss? I don’t know if Northwestern is really an at-large candidate or not. Something tells me the bubble is going to tighten up quite a bit with upsets in the conference tournaments. Northwestern has certainly played better in the last 10 games, playing more like the 30th best team in the nation. But when you can’t finish close games, you make it hard for the committee to put you in the field.

North Carolina is another team to survive an injury without much fanfare. When Dexter Strickland went down, the Tar Heels adjusted by giving more minutes to Kendall Marshall. And on net, that’s good for the offense.

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pythag

North Carolina (with Strickland)

115.4

86.9

16

3

0.9482

North Carolina (without Strickland)

117.2

87.8

10

1

0.9508

           

Oregon (without Joseph)

104.5

95.6

4

2

0.7132

Oregon (with Joseph)

110.2

99.2

16

6

0.7474

           

Colorado St. (without Hornung)

113.4

112.9

3

3

0.5112

Colorado St. (with Hornung)

110.7

98.5

15

7

0.7674 

I have heard some arguments that Oregon deserves extra consideration for the NCAA tournament because Devoe Joseph was missing early in the year. Well, he was missing for six games. Throw out two of their losses, is their Pac-12 resume impressive enough to merit a bid? How does Joseph’s injury compare to that of Pierce Hornung of Colorado St.? Hornung is an unknown to most college basketball fans, but he’s an under-sized rebounding machine. And Colorado St. was horrific without him in the lineup. If Oregon shouldn’t be dinged because Joseph was out for 6 games, Colorado St. shouldn’t be dinged because Hornung was out for 6 games. In my eyes neither team has played like an NCAA team. At full strength, Oregon has played like the 74th best team in the country, while Colorado St. has played like the 66th best. But if you want to put Oregon in because of injuries, don’t forget to argue for Colorado St. too. Finally, I want to end by updating some splits I have shown before:

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pythag

Temple (without Eric)

111.2

99.0

9

4

0.7670

Temple (with Eric)

114.9

94.5

14

2

0.8820

           

Virginia (with Sene)

106.7

83.4

15

2

0.9259

Virginia (without Sene)

103.2

87.5

6

5

0.8440

           

USF (missing players)

100.4

98.9

5

5

0.5363

USF (full strength)

103.5

88.2

13

6

0.8372

           

Cincinnati (no Parker)

98.7

86.4

5

2

0.7978

Cincinnati (no Gates)

117.4

95.3

6

0

0.8941

Cincinnati (full strength)

108.6

92.5

10

7

0.8371

           

Xavier (missing players)

95.0

101.2

1

3

0.3449

Xavier (full strength)

108.4

92.4

17

8

0.8372

Temple is a top 25 team with Michael Eric in the lineup, even if they have struggled over the last two games. Virginia is not a Top 25 team with Assane Sene out.

USF is not elite, but they’ve been around the 36th best team in the country in games when they’ve had their full lineup, and in crazy fashion Cincinnati and Xavier have been very similar when at full strength. Not surprisingly all three have been on the bubble.