NCAA Tournament Day 3

Last week on Twitter I noted that when Fab Melo missed three games in January, Syracuse’s offense struggled more than Syracuse’s defense. And in the Round of 64 against UNC-Asheville, Syracuse once again struggled to score. The Orange did better against Kansas St. in the Round of 32, but Jamar Samuels was missing for KSU so that game is a little tougher to evaluate. But over 5 games, the Syracuse offense has been worse without Melo in the lineup. The following table shows how the rotation has changed without Melo, and which player’s offensive efficiency has changed:

   

Without Melo (5 games)

With Melo (30 games)

Ht

Player

PctMin

Ortg

PctPoss

PctMin

Ortg

PctPoss

6'7"

Kris Joseph

89%

104.6

22%

78%

114.1

22%

6'2"

Scoop Jardine

76%

104.2

25%

59%

104.8

23%

6'4"

Brandon Triche

63%

110.2

21%

55%

111.6

23%

6'4"

Dion Waiters

62%

98.5

25%

60%

119.5

25%

6'8"

James Southerland

62%

121.5

20%

38%

121.8

18%

6'9"

Rakeem Christmas

57%

105.6

14%

24%

102.4

16%

6'8"

CJ Fair

50%

95.8

20%

67%

115.8

17%

6'10"

Baye Keita

41%

110.7

5%

25%

136.5

9%

6'5"

Michael Carter-Williams

2%

   

22%

113.8

18%

7'0"

Fab Melo

0%

   

63%

110.5

17%

-The rotation has really shrunk to 8 players as Michael Carter-Williams isn’t seeing the court at all with Melo out. Carter-Williams had seen his minutes decline all season, but Boeheim has been much more careful with minutes with Melo out.

-Not surprisingly, Fab Melo’s minutes at the center position have mostly gone to Rakeem Christmas and Baye Keita. But while Christmas has risen to the challenge, elevating his production, Keita has not played as well. Jim Boeheim has noted this, and in the last two games Keita has been used much more sparingly.

-James Southerland has also seen his minutes increase, and he has maintained his efficiency with Melo out.

- CJ Fair and Dion Waiters have struggled shooting the ball with Melo out. Both seem to be getting fewer open looks on the perimeter without Melo attracting defensive attention in the paint. Thus I think the real question for Syracuse is whether that is permanent. If Waiters and Fair can return to form offensively, Syracuse will be fine. But if those two continue to struggle shooting the ball, Syracuse’s season will be over.

Syracuse faces Wisconsin in the next round of the NCAA tournament, and on paper that’s a terrible matchup. Not only does Wisconsin have great margin-of-victory numbers, they are the type of team that shouldn’t be bothered by a zone defense. The Badgers love to take three pointers, and they rarely turn the ball over. The Badgers are also a solid rebounding team that can give the Melo-free Syracuse lineup trouble. But one thing to keep in mind is that Wisconsin hasn’t seen a ton of 2-3 zone this season. The Big Ten is mostly a man-to-man conference, and Wisconsin didn’t look sharp late in the game against Vanderbilt when the Commodores played zone.

Aggressive Play Wins Games

Indiana and VCU were tied in the final 20 seconds when Indiana’s Victor Oladipo attacked the basket and had his shot blocked. Then Will Sheehey picked up the ball and calmly knocked down a jumper with a full 11 seconds on the clock to give Indiana the lead. VCU had a wide open look at a game-winning three on the other end, but it rimmed off.

Working through the math, Sheehey’s shot in that late-game situation seemed like the wrong play. It is easy to argue mathematically that Indiana should have backed the ball out and played for the last shot. (I’ll go through my math below.) But as a basketball fan, I loved their aggressiveness. Basketball is fundamentally a game where the most aggressive team usually wins. Passivity is rarely rewarded. And I love it when teams do not wait until the last second of the game-clock to put up their shot. Either in chaos (as was the case with Sheehey’s jumper) or when the defense falls asleep (waiting for a last second shot), early offense can often be the best offense.

Now, mathematically, the shot probably didn’t make sense. By taking that shot, Indiana left VCU with a shot at a three pointer at the other end to win.  Let’s assume VCU only has a 30% chance to make a three at the end, because most of the time it was going to be contested. Then Indiana has a 70% chance to win if Sheehey’s shot goes in.

On the flip side, if Indiana backs the ball out, they probably only have a 30% chance at a game-winning shot (because VCU is going to trap and switch on all screens.) So backing it out, I would say Indiana roughly has a 65% chance to win the game. (Win in regulation, plus win in OT is 30% + 70%*1/2). So knowing Sheehey’s shot goes in, we’re looking at a slight edge for taking the shot, 70% > 65%. But that shot can’t be a 100% shot. In fact, I’d guess it is closer to 60%, and with those odds, Sheehey’s shot was very questionable.

But that is the beauty of sports. It isn’t always about playing the odds. Tom Crean’s team has been better when playing fast than when playing in the half-court. VCU has been great at forcing steals. And sometimes, the basketball play, knocking down the open jumper, is the perfect play at the perfect time.

Other Thoughts

-I feel bad for Buzz Williams losing his voice, and needing to write down notes on the whiteboard on the sidelines, but it was a pretty humorous visual. Some people probably view it as a mark of an over-stressed, overly vocal coach, but I prefer to see it as a manifestation of Buzz’s hard-work.

-Vanderbilt’s John Jenkins was supposed to be the guy everyone wanted taking a three pointer with time running down, but his shot rimmed off and Wisconsin held on to win. Festus Ezeli was also pretty clearly shoved under the basket on that rebound, but if you slow the game down, you could find a bunch of those shoves on replay. That one just happened to occur at a critical moment.

-The officials really seemed to be swallowing their whistle in the Marquette vs Murray St. match-up. I thought things got out-of-hand at times, but for Marquette it was huge that forward Davante Gardner was back and available. When Murray St. took the lead late in the game, Gardner went on a personal 6-0 run, and essentially broke the game open for Marquette. Though he looked like he wasn’t 100% healthy, he was willing to fight on the inside if it meant that his team advanced.

-Finally, Perry Jones III has only 9 points in the NCAA tournament so far, but Brady Heslip hit nine threes and Baylor won even without him having a big game. Kentucky rolled behind Marquis Teague’s career high 24 points, and Ohio St. rolled behind Jared Sullinger. This was perhaps the millionth time this season when Ohio St.’s bench scored zero points.

Expected NCAA Tournament Wins (Excluding Opening Round)

Own: If you lose in the round of 32, your expected wins go to one.  If you win, your expected wins go up.

Other: Other team’s outcomes can also impact your expected wins.

Marg: The margin of victory for all tournament teams can impact your probability. This essentially reflects the daily change in the Pomeroy Rankings.

Sat Winners

Seed

StartSat

Own

Other

Marg

EndSat

Louisville

4

1.69

0.82

-0.02

0.02

2.51

Marquette

3

2.25

0.59

-0.01

0.02

2.86

Wisconsin

4

2.39

0.76

-0.16

-0.04

2.95

Syracuse

1

2.30

0.62

-0.14

0.07

2.86

Baylor

3

2.65

0.50

-0.05

0.02

3.13

Ohio St.

2

3.40

0.55

-0.06

-0.04

3.85

Kentucky

1

3.41

0.55

-0.17

0.03

3.82

Indiana

4

2.31

0.48

-0.16

-0.03

2.60

South Florida

12

1.77

0.00

0.00

0.01

1.78

St. Louis

9

1.58

0.00

0.00

0.01

1.58

Yesterday with Duke and Missouri falling, the “Other” games donated expected wins to a lot of teams.  Today with the favored seeds winning across the board, the “Other” games only served to lower everyone’s expectations.  For example, despite the off-day, Florida St. saw its odds fall since Syracuse, Wisconsin, and Ohio St. all advanced in the East.

Sat Losers

Seed

StartSat

Own

Other

Marg

EndSat

NC State

11

1.39

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.38

Norfolk St.

15

1.08

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.08

Creighton

8

1.42

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.41

Georgetown

3

2.30

0.00

-0.01

0.01

2.30

Purdue

10

1.45

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.44

North Carolina

1

2.97

0.00

-0.02

0.01

2.96

Ohio

13

1.54

0.00

0.00

-0.01

1.53

Kansas

2

2.79

0.00

-0.02

0.00

2.77

Cincinnati

6

1.62

0.00

-0.04

0.00

1.58

Lehigh

15

1.59

0.00

-0.04

0.00

1.55

Michigan St.

1

3.01

0.00

0.00

-0.04

2.97

Xavier

10

1.80

0.00

-0.05

0.00

1.74

Florida St.

3

1.75

0.00

-0.06

0.00

1.70

Florida

7

2.76

0.00

-0.09

-0.01

2.66

Iowa St.

8

1.31

-0.31

0.00

0.00

1.00

Gonzaga

7

1.32

-0.32

0.00

0.00

1.00

VCU

12

1.35

-0.35

0.00

0.00

1.00

Colorado

11

1.36

-0.36

0.00

0.00

1.00

Murray St.

6

1.47

-0.47

0.00

0.00

1.00

Kansas St.

8

1.48

-0.48

0.00

0.00

1.00

Vanderbilt

5

1.61

-0.61

0.00

0.00

1.00

New Mexico

5

1.87

-0.87

0.00

0.00

1.00