The Versatility of Louisville, and the Homogeneity of the Big Ten

I wasn’t shocked that Michigan St. lost to Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen, but I was shocked that the game wasn’t competitive. It was somewhat predictable that Michigan St. would struggle with Louisville’s pressure and turn the ball over, but it was very surprising that the Spartans were unable to exert their will on the interior. Michigan St. forwards Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix have improved dramatically this season, and I fully expected one of them to be the most physical player on the floor. Instead, they combined for 3 of 10 shooting, and were a non-factor. As I noted when the tournament started, Michigan St. had played better against NCAA tournament teams than anyone in the country. But on this night, they looked unprepared for what Louisville threw at them.

There were a number of stories this week about how Michigan St. studies more game-tape than anyone in the NCAA tournament. (I’m not sure whether that’s true. I have also heard that Buzz Williams is relentless in his game preparation.) But as the game unfolded, I began to ask myself what Michigan St. would have learned in their film study. Who are the Louisville Cardinal this year? Were they a team that depended on Peyton Siva? He struggled and they played well anyway. Which lineup should you expect? Louisville players have been in and out of the lineup this year due to injury.  For example, Wayne Blackshear has been back from injury and while he has been playing minimal minutes, you had to prepare like he would be a factor in the game. Plus who do you guard on the perimeter? Louisville players aren’t afraid to take deep shots, even if they aren’t great shooters. Pitino has coached his players to never be afraid to take an open three. And right on cue the enigmatic Jared Swopshire, who had made just three 3’s on the season, made two buckets from beyond the arc. Kyle Kuric was shut down, but Swopshire’s shots were daggers. Sometimes all the film study in the world can’t prepare you for a team that has an amoeba of an identity.

One of the refrain’s from Rick Pitino the last few years is how valuable it is to play in the Big East. A lot of people hate the mega-conference and its lack of repeated rivalries. Most of the time, you only play an opponent once on the season. But as Pitino has said on numerous occasions, by playing more teams, you see more differences in styles. And he truly believes those differences in styles prepare you for post-season play. Syracuse plays a dangerous zone and punishes you in transition. Marquette is relentless taking the ball to the basket and drawing fouls. Georgetown will punish you with back-cuts if you aren’t disciplined. But even if you are disciplined, Notre Dame will punish you by making shots late in the shot clock. West Virginia tries to crush you on the offensive glass with extreme physicality. Cincinnati uses defensive ball pressure to take you out of your half-court sets. Seton Hall is incredibly effective at grabbing steals. UConn is fantastic at blocking shots. DePaul plays at such a fast-pace that they hope you get rattled. South Florida plays at a snail’s pace and hopes you can’t get any momentum.

And as Louisville showed in the Big East tournament, they are quite content to play any of these styles. They ran with Marquette and won, and played a brutal defensive game with Cincinnati and won. After over 30 years, there isn’t a style Pitino is afraid to play. Yes, Michigan St. had a physical imposing front line. But Louisville had seen that before. And all Gorgui Dieng did was respond with 7 blocks on the interior.

Conversely Michigan St. has not exactly seen a lot of full-court pressure in the Big Ten this year. (And I’m not just talking about picking players up full-court, I’m talking about players jumping out on passes near half-court.) Louisville forced a couple of key turnovers halfway through the second half that brought the margin to 11 points and those full-court opportunities essentially sealed the game.

And this is exactly why the news that Shaka Smart is not coming to Illinois should be disappointing to Big Ten fans. For better or worse, an equilibrium has been reached in the Big Ten. To win, you have to play relentless man-to-man defense and always get back in transition. But since almost every team does that, the best offensive strategy is to conserve possessions and embrace a perimeter-oriented-attack.

Slow pace, man-to-man defense, lots of jump shots, few turnovers – almost every Big Ten team embraces a significant portion of that philosophy. It is a brilliant strategy. It helped the Big Ten to the top RPI in the nation this year, and when executed well, it is almost unstoppable.

But is there not value in variety? Would Michigan St. not benefit from seeing a Mike Anderson or Shaka Smart led team a couple of times a year? Would the Spartans not benefit from seeing a team employ a full-time zone defense? Thank goodness that Iowa and Indiana have embraced a faster pace, but the Big Ten desperately needs more variety.

You might assume that as an Illinois alumni, that I am sad that Shaka Smart passed on the Illini offer. I’m not sure that’s true. I’m not sure full-court pressure would work in a conference where Matt Painter, Bo Ryan, and Bill Carmody have taken turnover free basketball to another level. But basketball is at its best when there are differences in styles. And the Big Ten desperately needs a few different looks. It might not have swung the Michigan St. vs Louisville game.  Perhaps Louisville just played better. But in the long-run, I think it matters.

(For the record, my personal choice for the Illinois job would be BYU’s Dave Rose, but I haven’t heard him mentioned anywhere and I don’t believe he is a likely candidate.)

Badger Heartbreak

Wisconsin was clearly more prepared for Syracuse’s zone defense than Vanderbilt’s zone defense last week, but an elite zone defense will always throw surprises at you. At least twice the Badgers had the ball in the corner and thought they had an open post feed. But they weren’t aware that in that situation the Syracuse defender on the opposite side of the court cheats and jumps the post-man. Wisconsin didn’t have a ton of turnovers in the game, but the ones they had hurt.

Jim Boeheim clearly believes that no team can stay hot from three point range which is why you will never shoot Syracuse out of a zone. Once or twice a year it usually backfires, (I am recalling the Seton Hall game last year), but not very often. And even though Wisconsin hit 14 threes in the game, they didn’t exactly blow the game open with their hot shooting. You knew they would eventually need a few inside baskets to win, and those just weren’t forthcoming. Wisconsin had just 10 points in the paint in the game, and while they had a fabulous chance to win, Boeheim’s gamble paid off. You will rarely beat the Orange if you only score 10 points in the paint.

Syracuse had to welcome the return of CJ Fair’s offensive game in the victory. Fair had been struggling from the field, and if he did not key a first half run where Syracuse scored 7 FGs in a row, the Orange would not have advanced.

Ohio St. vs Cincinnati

Against Texas in the first round, Cincinnati attacked with its ball pressure immediately. They knew they could rattle the young Texas guards and they pounced. But sometimes Mick Cronin is hesitant to be aggressive early. Against Georgetown in the Big East tournament he was concerned about Georgetown’s passing ability and he laid back in the first half. But he dialed up his ball-pressure in the second half and Cincinnati rallied to beat the Hoyas in double overtime.

And on Thursday, Cronin appeared to utilize that delayed pressure strategy again. Cincinnati came out fairly passive in the first half and fell behind. But the team started jumping passing lanes early in the second half and within moments an 8 point deficit was a 3 point lead.

But that’s when Aaron Craft took over. There has been some talk lately that Aaron Craft is a little over-rated. Big Ten coaches say there are other quality defenders and Craft somehow got this inflated defensive reputation. But with Cincinnati pressuring the ball, he showed he could do it as well as anyone in the country. Craft personally grabbed 6 steals, and the Buckeyes forced 18 turnovers while blowing the game open. The Buckeyes beat the Bearcats at their own game.

Marquette vs Florida

Marquette was not a great shooting team this year, but they have been fabulous at getting into the lane and drawing fouls. And as things worked out, Florida turned out to be a horrible matchup. First, the Gators had the quickness to keep Marquette’s best players in front of them. Marquette got a few inside looks, but the team was forced to take too many jump shots, and they simply couldn't make them.

Second, the Gators are rarely going to foul you and give you free throws. And the Golden Eagles got to the line just 18 times in the game. For a team that lives at the free throw line, that wasn’t enough. Marquette shot horribly and could not overcome the poor shooting by getting to the line.

Expected Wins in NCAA Tournament

Own: If you lose in the Sweet Sixteen, your expected wins go to two. If you win, your expected wins go up.

Other: Other team’s outcomes can also impact your expected wins.

The big winner on Thursday might have been Kentucky.  Their potential Final Four opponent will now either be a Florida team that they’ve defeated three times this season or a Louisville team they beat in December. Michigan St. wasn’t unstoppable, but they seemed like a more likely candidate to give the Wildcats problems in New Orleans. But if Michigan St. really was dangerous, Florida gains the most from the “Other” games.

I actually find it fairly impressive that Kentucky still has the second most expected wins given that they are still in the Sweet Sixteen while a team like Syracuse has already advanced to the Elite Eight.  But Syracuse’s half (the right side of the bracket) is loaded with elite teams.