For a vast majority of the season, I thought this Denver Nuggets team stood out as a real contender in the Western Conference. Their excellent depth meshed perfectly with their aggressive style of play and a mile high home court advantage, creating a team that would be extremely difficult to take down in at least three of the tilts in a seven game series. Even as their system began to work better, injuries to Danilo Gallnari (who will not play in the series) and Kenneth Faried (who likely will play but may sit out the earliest games) change how they will work as a postseason team.

The other major factor here comes in the form of their opponents. In halfcourt sets, the Warriors’ organizing philosophy has been to try to deny teams scoring chances at the rim and giving up three point shots. That manifested itself in Golden State yielding the most three-point attempts in the entire league per game (23.8) and the fourth-least attempts at the rim per game (also 23.8). The second figure becomes more impressive because the Warriors were third from the bottom in the entire NBA when it comes to turnovers. Since turnovers often yield looks at the rim in transition, they had to do even better in halfcourt situations to offset those figures.

Against many teams, building a defense with the release valve being three-pointers (often open ones) can be devastating. The corner three is the second-best shot in basketball behind shots at the rim and teams who know and game plan for Golden State can make sure that these looks go to the best players. However, the Nuggets as presently constituted do not have the personnel to exploit the Warriors’ defensive weakness and in fact could be victimized by it.

This season, five different Nuggets attempted 2.9 or more threes per game- Gallinari, Corey Brewer, Andre Iguodala, Ty Lawson and Wilson Chandler. Of that group, Chandler was the only one to shoot better than 40 percent while Lawson and Gallinari shot 36.6 percent and 37.3 percent, respectively. Finally, Iguodala converted only 31.7 percent of his looks while Corey Brewer shot an abysmal 29.6 percent from deep. In fact, Corey Brewer was the third-worst of any player who attempted more than 250 threes this season, behind only Alexey Schved and Monta Ellis. Iguodala was fourth-worst.

With Gallinari out of commission for the season, this means that the group of players taking the shots the Warriors will give them contains as many bad shooters as good ones coming off a regular season where the poor gunners attempted more threes both total and per minute than the better shooters. Denver’s offense will require more discipline than they showed at any point during the regular season, including their improved performance over the final month.

Golden State would also be wise to understand Denver’s strengths and attempt to take them away from the Nuggets. Unlike nearly every NBA team, Denver can get quality minutes at the Center position every minute of every game thanks to Kosta Koufos and JaVale McGee. Both are good defensive players that can impact the opposing offense in different ways. However, by shifting around personnel the Warriors have the capability of neutralizing this strength. While the combination of David Lee and Carl Landry has plenty of defensive problems, they each have the ability to stretch the floor which must be respected by opposing bigs. Playing them together would get either Kosta or JaVale out of their comfort zone and leave both those players and the system susceptible to penetrators and unusual screen actions. Andre Iguodala in particular is an excellent defensive player but spending some time each game taking away the core of the Nuggets’ D would work incredibly well for the Warriors, particularly while Andrew Bogut is less than 100%.

The Warriors also need to be aware of Denver potentially putting Andre Iguodala or Corey Brewer on Stephen Curry since their length will cause him some problems and they each have enough lateral quickness to largely stay with him during sets. Exploiting those situations will require using two swingmen (like Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes) rather than Jarrett Jack because the bigger players can exploit Ty Lawson or Andre Miller more than Jack can. Golden State should also use substitutes to maximize their opportunities when George Karl plays Miller and Lawson together because their collective limitations in terms of size, shooting, and defense can be exploited.

One final reason I am picking the Warriors in this series is George Karl. He has done a fantastic job this season (I had him second for Coach of the Year) and has had an admirable career. However, his teams have consistently underperformed in the playoffs. Since the 2001-2002 season, Karl’s teams have made the playoffs nine times and have advanced beyond the first round once. Furthermore, despite having three division champions, since he became the Denver head coach nine seasons ago the average number of wins per playoff series for his team sits at 1.9. That 1.9 wins per series includes a trip to the Western Conference Finals with Melo- without that run the Nuggets have average 1.3 wins per playoff series with all first round exits.

My best guess of how this goes down is that the Warriors sneak one of the first two in Denver, then get both wins at Oracle, lose Game 5 in Denver and then take the series at home in Game 6. The Nuggets have done a superb job this season but may have run into exactly the wrong team while not having their full arsenal.