In this edition, I provide more odds for the early season events. Click here for Part 1 which discussed a possible Louisville vs North Carolina matchup. Click here for Part 2 which discussed a possible Duke vs Arizona matchup.
Great Alaska Shootout, Nov 27-30
|
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Tulsa |
46% |
36% |
12% |
Indiana St. |
54% |
43% |
16% |
Texas Christian |
90% |
21% |
3% |
Alaska Anchorage |
10% |
0% |
0% |
Pepperdine |
28% |
3% |
1% |
Wisconsin Green Bay |
72% |
18% |
9% |
Denver |
22% |
13% |
7% |
Harvard |
78% |
66% |
52% |
Everyone expects Harvard to win this tournament, and they should, but there are other intriguing teams here. Danny Manning played a lot of freshmen at Tulsa last season, and it will be very interesting to see if his squad has made the sophomore leap to relevance. Meanwhile Indiana St. senior point guard Jake Odum desperately wants to take his team to the NCAA tournament, and wins against teams like Tulsa and Harvard would be critical to that goal. Meanwhile I have Denver and Green Bay pegged as the runner-up in the Summit League and Horizon League, respectively. There will be some good basketball played up in Alaska.
Battle For Atlantis, Nov 28-30
|
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Kansas |
92% |
72% |
51% |
Wake Forest |
8% |
2% |
0% |
Villanova |
81% |
23% |
11% |
USC |
19% |
2% |
0% |
Tennessee |
73% |
33% |
11% |
Texas El Paso |
27% |
6% |
1% |
Xavier |
27% |
12% |
3% |
Iowa |
73% |
49% |
22% |
This is a strong field with possibly five NCAA tournament teams, and three other teams that could make the NIT. But Kansas, with Andrew Wiggins, is the overwhelming favorite.
I am surprised at how few people view Iowa as a Top 25 team at this point. There seems to be a big feeling that if you fail to make the NCAA tournament one year, you can’t be a Top 25 team the following season. But Iowa brings all but one rotation player back from the NIT runner-up and a team that was extremely competitive in a brutally tough Big Ten last year.
Regardless of their ranking, this is a big tournament for the Hawkeyes. Early in the year, a veteran squad like Iowa has to pick up quality wins. Iowa certainly doesn’t have more talent than Tennessee, but while the Volunteers will be breaking in a new PG who hasn’t played the position in several years, and trying to rebuild the defense with a returning Jeronne Maymon, Iowa has experience and chemistry. This is the type of event where the Hawkeyes need to use their experience to their advantage.
Old Spice Classic, Nov 28-Dec 1
|
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Purdue |
29% |
20% |
8% |
Oklahoma St. |
71% |
59% |
38% |
Butler |
55% |
12% |
4% |
Washington St. |
45% |
9% |
2% |
Memphis |
96% |
73% |
40% |
Siena |
4% |
0% |
0% |
Louisiana St. |
64% |
19% |
7% |
Saint Joseph's |
36% |
7% |
2% |
The team I am most fascinated to see in Orlando is LSU. Johnny Jones has done a fabulous job recruiting in his short time in Baton Rouge. This season will probably involve a lot of growing pains while the team breaks in some young players, but Jarrell Martin, Jordan Mickey, and Tim Quarterman all have outstanding upside.
Oklahoma St. is the best team, but Memphis gets a much easier first round match-up which makes them the slight overall favorite in the tournament. Siena, despite having one of the best mid-major fanbases in the country, was dreadful last season and is still in rebuilding mode.
I was ready to write Memphis off as a true national title contender this year despite their depth and talent level. That’s because Joe Jackson and Chris Crawford have played a lot of college minutes. We know who they are. They are good, but not super-elite players. They will win a lot of games, but they aren’t consistent enough to take Memphis to the highest level. But the news that Missouri transfer Michael Dixon is eligible intrigues me. Along with Geron Johnson, the four senior guards have a chance to try to duplicate what Missouri did a few years ago when the 4-guard lineup dominated the Big 12. The key to that team was their unbelievable chemistry and unselfishness. If Memphis can duplicate that, this could be a special offense.
Oklahoma St. may be happy to join Memphis with a smaller lineup. All-everything guard Marcus Smart, Phil Forte, and Markel Brown are the presumed back-court starters, but Brian Williams (back after missing all of last season with injury) and Top 100 recruit Stevie Clark will also push for minutes, and Oklahoma St. could match Memphis in going small. Despite a Top 10 ranking, Oklahoma St.’s rotation is very much a puzzle. That makes the Cowboys one of the more intriguing teams to follow early in the season.
The Wooden Legacy, Nov 28-Dec 1
|
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Miami FL |
48% |
9% |
2% |
George Washington |
52% |
11% |
3% |
Marquette |
96% |
80% |
50% |
Cal St. Fullerton |
4% |
1% |
0% |
Charleston |
23% |
4% |
1% |
San Diego St. |
77% |
31% |
12% |
Creighton |
70% |
49% |
27% |
Arizona St. |
30% |
16% |
6% |
One of the problems with all the conference realignment is that teams make commitments to the holiday tournaments years in advance. And so we end up with a situation where the two Big East favorites, Marquette and Creighton could meet before conference play even starts. (Wouldn’t it be funny if Marquette and Creighton played five times this year, twice in conference play, once in this event, once in the conference tournament, and once in the NCAA tournament?)
Perhaps Jahii Carson and Arizona St. can pull the minor first-round upset and prevent that matchup here. Regardless, the matchup between Creighton and Arizona St. should be one of the more exciting offensive games in the early season. With Doug McDermott and Grant Gibbs, Creighton’s offense is always lethal, and Carson will have Arizona St. running and gunning. Meanwhile, with Gregory Echenique graduating Creighton’s defense will be worse. And given Arizona St.’s defensive problems last year, neither team should put up much resistance. There will be a lot of points scored in this one.
Marquette isn’t that much better than Creighton, but the top half of the bracket looks like a cakewalk. Despite dominating the ACC last year, Miami is basically starting over. Most players graduated, Shane Larkin left for the draft, and with the team having little chance at the NCAA tournament this year, transfer Angel Rodriguez didn’t apply for a waiver to play this season.
Corpus Christi Challenge, Nov 29-30
|
Final |
Champ |
Virginia |
87% |
75% |
Southern Methodist |
13% |
7% |
Texas A&M |
65% |
13% |
Missouri St. |
35% |
4% |
SMU and Virginia both have veteran teams which might make their matchup one of the better played holiday tournament games this season. But Virginia is head and shoulders above this field. A lot of people are writing Virginia off because they didn’t make the NCAA tournament last year, but that was only because they played so dreadfully in November and December. Virginia won 11 games in the ACC last year and with all the efficient offensive players back, they have a chance to compete for the ACC title. Anything other than a tournament title here will be a disappointment.
Barclays Center Classic, Nov 29-30
|
Final |
Champ |
Mississippi |
50% |
24% |
Georgia Tech |
50% |
24% |
Penn St. |
27% |
9% |
St. John's |
73% |
43% |
With six former elite high school recruits and three former elite JUCO players, St. John’s might have the most athletic lineup in the Big East. But whether the team has the offensive polish to match its athleticism is a big concern. Last year’s offense ranked only 214th nationally.
Ole Miss will be competitive if Marshall Henderson is in the lineup, but the Rebels lose a devastating amount of talent from last year’s squad without many obvious replacements.
Look for Marcus Hunt and Robert Carter to break out as sophomore stars for the Yellow Jackets this year.
|
Final |
Champ |
Mississippi St. |
46% |
11% |
Santa Clara |
54% |
14% |
South Florida |
32% |
21% |
UNLV |
68% |
54% |
The Mountain West Conference is expected to take a step back this season and UNLV cannot afford to have a slip-up in this “home” event.
Diamond Head Classic, Dec 22-25
|
Semis |
Final |
Champ |
Iowa St. |
67% |
44% |
21% |
George Mason |
33% |
16% |
5% |
Oregon St. |
44% |
16% |
5% |
Akron |
56% |
23% |
8% |
South Carolina |
28% |
10% |
4% |
St. Mary's |
72% |
40% |
26% |
Boise St. |
80% |
45% |
29% |
Hawaii |
20% |
5% |
2% |
A second round matchup between Boise St. and St. Mary’s could be a very important non-conference game for both teams. While the WCC and MWC are often multi-bid conferences, there aren’t always a plethora of Top 100 wins available to schools in those conferences. Winning here could be the difference between being a 2-seed in the NIT and a 9-seed in the NCAA tournament.