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The Eliminated (First Round Teams)

These eight teams extended their seasons with a first round playoff series, but their offseason begin sooner than they were hoping following their elimination.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Big Questions:

- Which of their free agent guards do the Bucks want to bring back?

- Which of their free agent guards will give them the best chance to re-sign him?

- How much more do they need to add to a big man rotation with Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova and John Henson?

Notable Free Agents:  Brandon Jennings (Restricted), Monta Ellis (Player Option), JJ Redick (Unrestricted), Samuel Dalembert (Unrestricted), and Mike Dunleavy (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: Having all three main guards in varying levels of free agency puts the Bucks in a strange situation. They have the ability to match with Brandon Jennings, but have to deal with a pure open market for both JJ Redick and Monta Ellis assuming the latter opts out.

I fully expect Jennings to either get a big offer or even sign the one-year tender and have zero idea whether Milwaukee would match even a near-max offer sheet. While Jennings clearly has plenty of talent, it feels like a hard argument to make that he can be the best player on a team that can advance at least one round in the playoffs. Jennings can be a key part of a great team, but likely not as the primary building block. Similarly, Redick and Ellis profile perfectly as players who will get overpaid if money is their primary objective in free agency. I could easily see Redick taking less to go to the right place and Ellis needs to go to an organization that values him and makes sense for his skills long-term. Since we do not know what either wants in their next destination, it feels like a shot in the dark to predict where they end up.

Beyond the guards, I love the core of Sanders, Ilyasova, and Henson particularly considering they all have at least one more season on their current deal. The looming extension for Most Improved candidate SANDERS! puts Milwaukee in a strange situation in terms of future cap space since he will get a meaningful pay raise and there are so many other unknowns in the franchise.

Boston Celtics

The Big Questions:

- How much longer does Kevin Garnett want to play?

- Will we see a full strength Jared Sullinger for most of 2013-14?

- Can Fab Melo become a rotation player for next season?

Notable Free Agents: None

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (traded 2nd Rounder to Portland)

The Lay of the Land: With so much money committed to their existing roster, Boston would have to make trades in order to look substantially different next season. The addition of Rajon Rondo at some point will give their depth a boost but the biggest lingering question is how much longer Garnett wants to play. While we have the same question about Paul Pierce, it would be awfully hard for this team to make much noise without Garnett until they get a talent infusion because of how their talent is structured.

Fortunately, Boston has a compelling group of young-ish players that can make this team much deeper if they are healthy and improve. Players like Fab Melo and Jared Sullinger can combine with Jordan Crawford and Avery Bradley to make teams sweat and give the elder statesmen some much-needed support. We will just have to see if they can deliver, especially before Rondo returns.

Atlanta Hawks

The Big Questions:

- Can they figure out a way to get Dwight Howard?

- Should they give Josh Smith the contract some team will be dumb enough to offer him?

- Will Jeff Teague get a surprising offer from Atlanta or anyone else?

Notable Free Agents: Josh Smith (Unrestricted), Jeff Teague (Restricted), Ivan Johnson (Unrestricted), Devin Harris (Unrestricted), Kyle Korver (Unrestricted), and Zaza Pachulia (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder, Houston’s 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder, Houston’s 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: Despite having Al Horford and Louis Williams on the books long-term, Atlanta may have the potential for the most major turnover in the entire league. Even though Dwight Howard did not look like himself this year and we have to have some trepidation that the new normal for him will be lower than it was before his back injury, he would be a franchise-changing addition. Assuming he ends up elsewhere, the Hawks have tough decisions with both Josh Smith and Jeff Teague. Each has talent and can be a nice player on a good team but could also be offered far too much to make them worth keeping. Since Horford is a good player on a fair contract, Atlanta can be patient if the market gets too crazy on their free agents.

Atlanta did a nice job playing the RFA market to get Josh Smith on his current deal, but it feels unlikely that they will be able to repeat that success with Teague. Utah in particular could end up with cap space and a glaring need at the position that Jeff can use to leverage a nice offer. On Smoove, we just have to find out if any team is dumb enough to offer him the money he wants.

Brooklyn Nets

The Big Questions:

- Can they find a taker for Kris Humphries’ soon to be expiring contract?

- Will Andray Blatche take a pay cut to stay in Brooklyn?

- Will CJ Watson pick up his player option?

Notable Free Agents: Andray Blatche (Unrestricted) and CJ Watson (Player Option)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (own 2nd Rounder traded to Minnesota)

The Lay of the Land: With the huge amount of money the Nets spent last offseaosn to build their team, this one will be one built on smaller moves that could still have a major effect on the team’s ceiling. Even though Kris Humphries is overpaid and plays a non-pivotal position, we could see a team take him to shed a longer-term deal because of the quality free agent class in 2014 or the huge luxury tax consequences of the repeater tax. Assuming Prokorov is willing to foot the huge bill, adding another starter to this team would be a gigantic boon for their potential to be a factor in the East for years to come.

On the depth side, both CJ Watson and Andray Blatche played last season on minimum salaries and have a chance to get paid more elsewhere. While the team has Tyshawn Taylor as a potential Watson replacement, no one stands out as a good fit to get Blatche’s role should he head for greener pastures. His statements seem to indicate a willingness to stick it out with Brooklyn, but we will have to see if that turns out to be the case when the money is on the table.

Houston Rockets

The Big Questions:

- Can they get another max talent to join the team?

- If not, do they keep their cap space for 2014 or improve the team now?

- Even without getting a better talent at the position, would the team move Jeremy Lin for a reasonable offer?

Notable Free Agents: Francisco Garcia (Team Option)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Phoenix’s 2nd Rounder (Own 1st and 2nd Rounders held by Atlanta)

The Lay of the Land: Houston has 15 players under contract for next season and still has plenty of cap space to make a major impact. Furthermore, each and every player they have signed presently has a contract that makes them more of an asset than a liability. That kind of flexibility means Daryl Morey could make some unbalanced trades in terms of salary, talent or both. Unfortunately, the five dimes for a dollar trades are some of the hardest to make in the entire league because the exchange rate for elite talent is often much higher than that.

On top of everything else, the Rockets' front office can elect to roll over their money to next summer by either standing largely pat or by using their space to pick up assets from teams looking to get under the cap or tax for next year. With so many resources and an insane amount of flexibility, now should be the time for Houston to move up a few notches in the Western Conference pecking order.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Big Questions:

- Will Dwight Howard re-sign?

- Will Metta World Peace take a pay cut to stay on the team?

- Can they retain Earl Clark?

Notable Free Agents: Dwight Howard (Unrestricted), Earl Clark (Unrestricted), Devin Ebanks (Unrestricted), Metta World Peace (Player Option), and Darius Morris (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 2nd Rounder (own 1st Rounder held by Cleveland)

The Lay of the Land: Dwight Howard and the uncertainty that constantly surrounds him like Pigpen on Peanuts has another chance to choose his home for the next few seasons. While the Lakers are the best option financially and promotionally, the age and inflexibility of the Lake Show could make him consider other options or even the maddening possibility of a one-year deal to become part of the 2014 free agent class. Without any insight into his decision-making process, I know better than to speculate on what Dwight will do.

Contrary to what some members of the media have written or said recently, all amnesty decisions for the 2013 offseason must be made in the first week after the end of the July moratorium. That means the Lakers' brass will not have enough time to know about Kobe Bryant’s status for next season with any meaningful clarity.

With that in mind, the only other reasonable option for the amnesty provision is Metta World Peace. While that makes sense because of the luxury tax burden on top of his salary, I could see the Lakers telling World Peace that picking up his player option means the end of his time with the Lakers due to the potential amnesty and indicating that the only way he sticks with the team would be to take a pay cut but a longer deal. I have no idea if he would take that or roll the dice on the amnesty waiver process (where a return to Houston would be a possibility) so that stands out as another unanswerable question. 

Los Angeles Clippers

The Big Questions:

- Will Chris Paul stay with the Clippers?

- Is there any chance we see CP3 take a one-year deal?

- Will Chauncey Billups return for another run with the team?

Notable Free Agents: Chris Paul (Unrestricted), Chauncey Billups (Unrestricted), Lamar Odom (Unrestricted), Matt Barnes (Unrestricted), Ronny Turiaf (Unrestricted), and Ryan Hollins (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (own 2nd Rounder held by Detroit)

The Lay of the Land: No single decision affects the future of a franchise more than Chris Paul’s. As the best player to ever play for the organization and a key recruiter of their potent depth, losing Paul would decimate the team until Donald Sterling sells. After Paul makes his choice, the team will have a chance to figure out what they want to do with Eric Bledsoe. He could be a key piece on a deep run next season, but the Clippers will not have the financial flexibility to retain both Bledsoe and Paul. The trade market would contain many suitors though I am sure they will try to use the fact that the team cannot retain both as leverage to lower the asking price.

Beyond those two, the Clippers actually have most of their key players locked up for next season. The only main cogs of A Tribe Called Bench up in the air are Matt Barnes, Lamar Odom and Chauncey Billups. Each would be nice to retain but also are replaceable as long as CP3 stays in town. I fully expect Lamar Odom to re-sign considering the rough go he had the last time he left Los Angeles.

Denver Nuggets

The Big Questions:

- What does Andre Iguodala want long-term? Will he opt out?

- Will Denver retain Corey Brewer or fill his niche with one of their young players?

- Do the Nuggets want to combine any assets to build a smaller, stronger core?

Notable Free Agents: Andre Iguodala (Player Option), Corey Brewer (Unrestricted), and Timofey Mozgov (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (own 2nd Rounder held by Phoenix)

The Lay of the Land: After the devastating series loss to Golden State, there will be plenty of pressure for the Nuggets to make bigger structural moves if possible. Thanks to the contracts inked with JaVale McGee and Ty Lawson in 2012, Denver does not have a ton of long-term cap space even if Andre Iguodala opts out and heads elsewhere. Iguodala still stands as a key piece since his perimeter defense can really help this team while they do not always need big offensive nights from him in order to win. Thankfully for the Nuggets, McGee, Lawson, Koufos, Gallinari, Chandler, Miller, Fournier and Faried are all signed for at least two more seasons so they will be a deep and potent team for years to come. However, that depth could also be used to try and add a higher level player who can make Denver a more dangerous team in crunch time and the playoffs. Since that likely would come in a trade, we will have to wait and see what the market would be for players like Wilson Chandler and Evan Fournier.

The Real Legacy Of Rasheed Wallace

After playing only four minutes on an injured foot in the New York Knicks' final regular season game, Rasheed Wallace retired on Wednesday. One of the most talented and controversial players of his generation, he was still effective at 38, 20 years after he appeared on the national scene at North Carolina.

Along with Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Chris Webber and Dirk Nowitzki, Wallace redefined the power forward position and revolutionized the game. But while he was as talented as his four contemporaries, he's the only one won't wind up in the Hall of Fame. Wallace never cared much for his image or his legacy, which is why, paradoxically enough, he became such a beloved countercultural figure.

There were very few things Wallace couldn’t do on a basketball court. At 6’11, 230 with exceptionally quick feet and a rumored 7’4 wingspan, he was a defensive prototype. He had the strength to battle the best low-post scorers on the blocks, the quickness to move in space and the length to protect the rim. He had all the tools on the offensive side of the floor too: an excellent post game, complete with a turnaround jumper that was essentially indefensible and the ability to stretch the floor out to the three-point line. His versatility on both sides of the ball and his understanding of the game made him the perfect teammate, capable of playing any role his team needed.

If there was a criticism of the way he played, it was that he wasn’t selfish enough. Despite being an overwhelming force on the low block, he shied away from dominating the ball, preferring to play a more team oriented game and often floating out to the three-point line. Even though he could create his own shot against anyone, he never averaged more than 20 points a game. His lack of aggression on the offensive end can be seen his number of free throw attempts. While Dirk, Webber, KG and Duncan all had seasons with more than six a game, Wallace’s career high was a little over four. He wasn’t as suited to being a primary offensive option as his peers, but when he was dialed in, his versatility allowed him to have a similar impact on a game.

In many ways, Wallace was ahead of his time. His fascination with the three-point shot drove many fans and analysts crazy, but it’s the ideal place for a big man to be on offense. The modern game is built around spacing the floor, with coaches in the NBA and the NCAA searching everywhere for a “stretch 4” who can drag his defender out of the paint. The problem comes on the other end of the floor, as most jump-shooting big men can’t play defense. Wallace was a stretch 4/5 who doubled as one of the best defensive big men in the game. MVP candidates are the only players more valuable than that. It's the same reason why Chris Bosh, not Dwyane Wade, is the second most indispensable player on the Heat.

It’s no coincidence Wallace won everywhere he went. The only year he missed the playoffs was his rookie season, when he played with Webber (!) and Juwan Howard (!!) on an underachieving Washington Bullets squad that was quickly broken up. By 22, he was one of the key players on the legendary “Jail Blazers” squads in Portland, where he began to develop the “rebel without a cause” reputation that followed him throughout his career. Seven years later, he wound up with the Detroit Pistons, where he teamed with Ben Wallace to form one of the most fearsome defenses in NBA history. He finished his career with stops in Boston and New York, where he was still a key player on two elite teams, even in his late 30’s.

Few players had more near misses than Wallace. The Jail Blazers came this close to knocking off the Shaq/Kobe Lakers in 2000, blowing a 15-point lead in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. The Lakers went on to win the next three NBA titles while the Blazers were quickly dismantled after the public grew tired of their off-court shenanigans.

In 2005, a year after Wallace got his revenge on L.A. as the missing piece for the Pistons, they lost to the Spurs in a classic 7-game series in the NBA Finals. In 2010, Wallace was the third big man for the Celtics who lost to the Lakers in another 7-game Finals that went right down to the wire. A couple bounces are all that separate Wallace from four titles.

All that, however, has been overshadowed by the way he carried himself both on and off the court. In terms of records that will never be broken, his 41 technical fouls in 00-01 is up there with Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak and Wilt Chamberlain’s 100 point game. With the NBA now suspending players after 16 technicals, no player will ever be able to carry on such a long-standing feud with the officials. Perhaps the best testament to Wallace’s talent was his ability to thrive despite so openly thumbing his nose at the sport’s power structure.

That’s where Wallace angered so many basketball traditionalists. Rather than using his immense talent to make himself the very best basketball player he could be, he used it to give himself the freedom to be the type of player he wanted to be. Wallace was such a good player that he could afford to view the game from an entirely different perspective, disregarding the basic norms of being a professional. He openly used recreational drugs, disrespected people in power and spoke his mind. Depending on your own personal view of the world, that made him either a hero or a villain. What made Wallace such a fascinating character is that he didn’t really care either way.

If a player doesn’t care about his image, there’s nothing the media can do to him. These are things he actually said, in reference to the NBA drafting kids out of high school: "They don't know no better, and they don't know the real business, and they don't see behind the charade," Wallace told The (Portland) Oregonian. "They look at black athletes like we're (expletive deleted). It's as if we're just going to shut up, sign for the money and do what they tell us ... As long as somebody CTC, at the end of the day I'm with them. For all you that don't know what CTC means, that's 'Cut the Check.” Wallace, quite literally, said anything he wanted too. He was good enough of at basketball to get away with it.

Wallace had the ability to be a Hall of Famer. He could hold his own against anyone in the NBA at his position; no one played better post defense on Tim Duncan. Circumstances never quite worked out for him, but it doesn't seem that he's all that bothered by it. The greatest players are supposed to play for their legacy, as if securing a place in Bill Simmons’ Hall of Fame pyramid should be their main goal. But why should a player spend his whole career worrying about how it will be viewed when he’s 60? Hopefully, he won’t spend his entire middle age re-fighting the battles of his youth. Rasheed Wallace was the A student happy with a B+. What’s the difference? He understood all the grades are pointless anyway.

Grading The Deal: Celtics Trade For Jordan Crawford

The Boston Celtics ended up completing a trade a few hours before Thursday’s deadline, but no member of the Big Three was involved. Boston sent Leandro Barbosa and Jason Collins to the Washington Wizards for Jordan Crawford.

Barbosa, who tore his right ACL earlier this month, proved to be a nice trade chip with an affordable, expiring contract. There were whispers that the Celtics were floating Fab Melo in talks, but it was clear that Ernie Grunfeld didn’t want any future salary commitment.

Collins also has an expiring contract, while Crawford carries a $2.16 million salary for 2013-14 and can be issued a qualifying offer of $3.2 million in 14-15. It was expected that the Celtics would re-sign the Brazilian Blur, but Danny Ainge now will have some work to do with close to $72 million already committed for next season.

The Wizards essentially dealt Crawford for two bodies and a small amount of cap savings. Barbosa is still waiting for his MCL to calm down before undergoing surgery on his ACL and Collins will have Emeka Okafor, Nene and Kevin Seraphin ahead of him on the depth chart. The move accomplished two things for Grunfeld -- ridding himself of the somewhat enigmatic Crawford and saving more than $2 million next season. Washington now has a little more than $65 million committed to 11 players (including Trevor Ariza’s $7.7 million player option and the $7.8 million amnestied deal of Andray Blatche).

There may have been underlying issues between Crawford and Washington, but it’s somewhat surprising that they couldn’t turn him into some sort of tangible future asset. However, the Wizards have relied on better ball movement since John Wall returned from injury and a one-on-one player like Crawford simply doesn’t fit with that scheme. That made it clear the 24-year-old wasn’t a fit now or going forward.

Grunfeld himself mused that he couldn’t get much in return for Crawford, but in actuality he should have been able to land at least a late second-round pick. I mean, wouldn’t Melo (a project big man due $1.3 million next year) be at least something? Crawford has been an average NBA player over the last two seasons (at the very least in terms of PER).

Grade for Washington: D+

Ainge didn’t make a big splash, revealing that he feels the Celtics can make a run come playoff time. That’s not guaranteed. With 28 games left, surpassing Atlanta for the sixth seed is really all that Boston can hope for at this point -- and the likelihood of that happening diminished when the Hawks held onto Josh Smith. The Bucks, 76ers and Raptors are all hoping to leapfrog the Celtics down the stretch. They have just 12 home games remaining and five games against the four teams they’ll be battling for positioning.

This deal was a classic give-and-take for the front office. They added a potent bench scorer, but had to further deplete the frontcourt in the process. My expectation is that Ainge will search for a buyout/free agent big man to sign for the final two months of the season. If they don’t do so soon, Chris Wilcox will be in for increased minutes. We will also see a smaller lineup featuring Jeff Green at the four.

Crawford should improve an anemic offense that averages just 102.2 points per 100 possessions, better than only five other teams. He has averaged .511 points per minute since he was a first-rounder in 2010. Playing with a second unit in need of an offensive punch, Crawford will have plenty of shot attempts and certainly won’t pass them up.

The Celtics share the basketball extremely well. Without Rondo, only Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are averaging more 9.3 shot attempts per game. Crawford was playing bench minutes for Washington before he fell out of favor and shot 11.8 times.

Crawford has never and will never shoot the basketball with great accuracy, but improved selection would increase his percentages. He’ll need close to 10 shots to flirt with double figures. That’s fine with Crawford, but Doc Rivers might have other ideas. His poor percentages are a direct result of poor selection. He can finish around the rim and is a decent outside shooter, but is hitting just 34% of his long twos this year. He doesn’t shoot substantially better from three-point range (35%), but at least that shot is a more efficient one.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Crawford should get better shots in Boston’s post-Rondo injury offense, but there is risk involved. The ball typically stops with Crawford, which could hinder movement. As mentioned above, his penchant for isolation offense is the reason he fell out of Randy Wittman’s rotation. 

Defense isn’t Crawford’s strong suit, but the Celtics should be able to hide him when possible. He’s undersized for a shooting guard, which doesn’t help, but an injection of effort would make up that. Rivers and Garnett have transformed poor defenders into adequate ones several times, which is promising, but doing so with Crawford might be worthy of mention on their resumes.

Grade for Boston: B+

The worst case for the Celtics here is that Crawford can’t earn minutes and becomes the ninth man off the bench. With Barbosa injured, that’s essentially the package they sent to Washington. Crawford carries future salary obligations, but his contract is very tradable.

Some will cringe, but if Crawford meshes well they could shop Courtney Lee this summer. He is set to make $5.2 million next season and with Rondo expected to return healthy, a four-guard rotation of Rondo, Avery Bradley, Jason Terry and Crawford would be undersized but feature enough defense to account for Crawford’s offensive mindset.

No Bad Drafts, Just Bad Drafters

One of the weirder aspects of NBA draft coverage is the groupthink mentality that quickly emerges and downplaying the quality of a draft class seems to be a pastime for many “NBA insiders.” Far too often, teams deal away first round picks thinking the guaranteed contract that comes with it is a burden rather than an asset.

2013 Amnesty Primer

As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0,” we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time.

Garnett's Role In LeBron's Inception

If Kevin Garnett hadn’t forced the owners to drastically alter the NBA’s salary structure, a super-team with stars in their 20’s wouldn’t have been possible. Most of all, all those years Garnett wasted with Minnesota were a vivid example of the price of loyalty for any future superstar contemplating free agency.

Ray Allen's Departure Still Lingers For Celtics

It’s always going to be a make-or-miss league, Doc Rivers repeated late Saturday, and the void left in these Celtics by losing the greatest shooter of his era in Ray Allen is becoming more and more revealing.

Atlantic Division Preview

The Knicks, Nets, Raptors and 76ers should all be improved in 12-13, which could put the Celtics' five season Atlantic Division winning streak on the line.

2012-13 NBA Power Rankings

The Heat, Thunder and Lakers appear to be a cut above the remainder of the NBA, but how do the 27 other teams rank?

Grading The Deal: Heat Burn Celtics, Sign Ray Allen

Ray Allen will sign a contract with the Heat that will be worth a fraction of what he could have been able to sign with Boston, which tells you everything you need to know about how much he wanted out.

The Good And Bad Of Boston Re-Signing Kevin Garnett

Bringing back Kevin Garnett means the Celtics aren’t going to endure a significant transformation this summer.

Great Drafts, Bad Drafts And All Drafts In-Between

Whle the Pistons, Blazers, Bobcats, Nets, Thunder and Bulls headline the 'Great Drafts', the caboose of 'Bad Drafts' is comprised of the Cavaliers, Suns, Bucks, Wolves, Heat and Knicks.

Perna's Draft Night Review

On Washington's transformation, the Austin Rivers mess, USA vs. International, Damion Lillard anointed at point guard, Boston's back-to-back picks and how Meyers Leonard fits with Portland.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 4.0 (Draft-Day Edition)

The Andre Drummond/Perry Jones effect on this draft before we make sense of picks seven through 30 just hours before a flood of draft-day trades shreds every mock.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 3.0

The 2012 NBA Draft is a week away and nothing is certain beyond Anthony Davis going to the Hornets with the first overall pick even though several scenarios are beginning to crystalize.

How To Identify Prospects Likely To Over/Under-Achieve

There are two core reasons why players outperform their pre-draft expectations, while there are two main paths for prospects to underachieve.

Celtics Set For Major Offseason Changes

Danny Ainge has three paths to select from in what will be his most critical offseason since he acquired Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in 2007.

LeBron Turns In Epic Performance To Force Game 7

The adulation LeBron James receives for carrying the Miami Heat to a 98-79 win over the Boston Celtics in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals may last less than 48 hours, but it’s absolutely deserved nonetheless.

Five Key Elements Of The Eastern Conference Finals

The Heat are at the top of their game right now, starting with James and Wade, and they have the blueprint to beat Boston in the playoffs after doing so a season ago. Ultimately, there are too many if’s, too many must’s, for the Celtics to advance.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 1.0 (Pre-Lottery Edition)

While every team in the lottery can bring their Anthony Davis jersey if they win the first overall pick, the gap between Thomas Robinson, Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Andre Drummond is extremely narrow for me and highly intriguing.

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