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2014 First Round Picks (Which Teams Own The Picks?)

While RealGM has an excellent database of the draft picks that have been traded between teams, I wanted to put together a summary more focused on the upcoming draft. For the sake of clarity, this version will only deal with the first round.

Atlanta Hawks- Have the right to swap their own pick with Brooklyn’s. At this point, it appears Atlanta will just keep their own and move on.

Boston Celtics- Have their own first and the less favorable of Atlanta and Brooklyn, likely Brooklyn right now. They have a future first from the Sixers as well, but it only goes this year if Philadelphia makes the playoffs. We all know that will not happen.

Brooklyn Nets- No matter what, they lose their pick without getting one in return.

Charlotte Bobcats- Their own first goes to Chicago as long as the Bobcats stay remotely on track (top-10 protected) but they pick up Portland’s unless the Blazers effectively lose out. The lingering question is Detroit- if the pick is 1-8, the Pistons keep it but if it’s 9th or worse it goes to Charlotte. My gut feeling is that once Detroit knows they will not make the playoffs we will see a push to the bottom reminiscent of the 2012 Warriors.

Chicago Bulls- Have their own pick and Charlotte’s unless the Bobcats collapse. The Sacramento pick they acquired in the Luol Deng trade is top-12 protected so it will not come this year.

Cleveland Cavaliers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Dallas Mavericks- One of the more interesting situations in the league. By having top-20 protection on their pick (it goes to Oklahoma City if it falls 21-30 this year), the Mavs could lose their pick if they make the playoffs. Right now, the bottom seeds in the West look to be about even with the 3-4 spots in the East, so it could go either way.

Denver Nuggets- They keep the better of their pick and New York’s, sending the worse one to Orlando.

Detroit Pistons- Keep their pick if it is eighth or better, otherwise it goes to Charlotte. I fully expect them to understand the incentives and lose enough to retain it.

Golden State Warriors- Their first goes to Utah no matter what.

Houston Rockets- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Indiana Pacers- Their pick is going to Phoenix as a part of the Luis Scola trade from last summer.

Los Angeles Clippers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Los Angeles Lakers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Memphis Grizzlies- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Miami Heat- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Milwaukee Bucks- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Minnesota Timberwolves- The pick is top-13 protected, meaning they have to make the postseason or have the best record of any non-playoff team to send it to Phoenix. At this point, it looks like the pick will be No. 13 and thus the Wolves will keep it.

New Orleans Pelicans- Their pick goes to Philadelphia unless it lands in the top-five. It will be hard for the Pelicans to jump enough of the teams “ahead” of them, but they still have a shot of jumping them in the lottery itself.

New York Knicks- They lose their pick no matter what, though the destination could change.

Oklahoma City Thunder- They have their own pick and get Dallas’ first if it ends up between 21 and 30, certainly a possibility.

Orlando Magic- Retain their own pick and get the less favorable of Denver and New York’s selections. This could end up swinging on whether the Knicks can make the playoffs- if they do, the pick falls a few spots to No. 15.

Philadelphia 76ers- They keep their own pick as long as they miss the playoffs (just a formality at this point) and pick up one from New Orleans as long as it falls outside the top five.

Phoenix Suns- They have their own pick and Indiana’s on lock and appear likely to pick up Washington’s since the Wizards should make the playoffs. Minnesota’s pick has top-13 protection, so I expect the Suns to only end up with three this year.

Portland Trail Blazers- Their pick is going to Charlotte unless the Blazers have a truly epic collapse.

Sacramento Kings- Their pick has top-12 protection, so the Kings look like they will keep it even if they rattle off some late-season wins.

San Antonio Spurs- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Toronto Raptors- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Utah Jazz- They have both their own pick and Golden State’s.

Washington Wizards- They will send their pick to Phoenix barring a major letdown.

The Third Contract

While justifiable and collectively bargained, the last two CBAs possess a few particularly interesting processes that have huge effects on decision-making. Some of these, like the Chandler Parsons situation (where the Rockets can pick up his super cheap team option and allow him to be Unrestricted in 2015 or decline it to have him Restricted this summer] and the repeater luxury tax get plenty of ink. However, one of the more interesting impacts comes from a more abstract place and deserves more attention.

In today’s NBA, most players have very little control over their destination for their first two contracts. The first typically comes by being drafted so the athlete has almost zero say in where he ends up. For high level players in particular, the gigantic disincentives in terms of financial security have meant that only Ben Gordon (not risking as much because a max deal was not on the table) has declined extending and spent two seasons in peril in exchange for unrestricted free agency.

These factors combine to create a fascinating set of circumstances when the second contract ends, as the best players have spent 7-9 years in the NBA (likely in the same city) and are just entering their primes in most cases. After having all that time with zero say, a vast majority of them enter the free agent market because the current extension rules are not favorable for young players due to limitations on contract length.

As such, the league sees high-level players able to be truly wooed for the first time in their professional careers with dramatically weaker disincentives to leave and a new CBA that makes sign-and-trades a less useful proposition. The combination of complete freedom and years of team control means that the third contract typically marks the first time we really get to know what a player wants in the short and long-term.

LeBron James and Chris Bosh used their third contract to join forces with Dwyane Wade and have reached the NBA Finals  in every season since The Decision.

Dwight Howard spurned the Lakers to make the Rockets a new Western Conference contender.

Ten years ago, Kobe Bryant publicly flirted with the Clippers before returning to the Lakers.

The third contract carries so much intrigue because as much as we think we know about NBA players, they never have the choices available to them earlier in their careers. There are plenty of valid reasons for someone to select their next location: team quality, connections with their current team, a good front office and/or coach, and a nice city to live in often carry weight in these circumstances. That said, each and every individual values those factors in different ways and can see the same landscape meaningfully differently. Thanks to a confluence of events from David Kahn not putting a five-year deal on the table for Kevin Love to opposing teams being restricted to offering four-year offer sheets, the next few summers will be full of tantalizing young talent finally gaining the freedom to go where they want.

Summer of 2014

All-Star snub Kyle Lowry looks to capitalize on a big season by being an unrestricted free agent for the first time.

Luol Deng and Emeka Okafor will also experience free agency for the first time since their second contracts were six-year deals grandfathered into the new CBA.

Rudy Gay has the choice of entering this class or the next one thanks to his big player option.

Astonishingly, Andrew Bogut would have joined this UFA first-timers group had he not signed an extension with the Warriors over the summer. Bogut has never been a free agent of any type in the NBA and will not be until 2017 with 12 years of service at that point.

While some people are already saying he may be close to done, Danny Granger gets an asterisk since he was a free agent this week but will have his first summer on the open market. 

Summer of 2015

While Kevin Love generates the most headlines, the third contract group for 2015 runs incredibly deep. Likely Defensive Player of the Year Roy Hibbert joins 13-14 DPOY Marc Gasol on the unrestricted market assuming Hibbert declines his player option.

If those three All-Star bigs were not enough, Brook Lopez has a player option as well and could leave Brooklyn if the team disappoints between now and then. His twin brother, Robin, will be in this class too, which could be something to watch considering their close relationship. In case this group needed another big, Robin’s current teammate LaMarcus Aldridge can select his team as well and should generate major interest around the league. You can add in DeAndre Jordan as the cherry on top.

Thanks to a five-year extension under the old CBA, Rajon Rondo will hit unrestricted free agency for the first time in 2015.  Rudy Gay, another member of the 2006 draft class, joins the group if he picks up his player option this summer. Philadelphia forward Thaddeus Young can add himself to the mix if he declines his option year while Arron Afflalo could be here as well if he declines his fifth year player option.

Finally, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin will have a more normal free agency after back-loaded contracts as RFAs landed both of them in Houston while Wesley Matthews gets his chance after a “poison pill” deal put him in Portland two years before Daryl Morey got his two.

Summer of 2016

Kevin Durant gets the top of the marquee (as he should) but this strong group also includes Joakim Noah, Noah's Florida teammate Al Horford, and Mike Conley. Incredibly, Dwight Howard could be gunning for his fourth contract the same summer since he signed a deal with Houston that made his fourth season a player option.

Interesting starters like Ryan Anderson, Nicolas Batum, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Brandon Jennings and Eric Gordon (if he picks up his option) could join the party too.

Summer of 2017

Likely the first group of players to become UFAs under the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, Thunder teammates Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka and former teammate James Harden headline a group that includes Derrick Rose (get healthy!), DeMar DeRozan, Tiago Splitter, Taj Gibson, Jrue Holiday, George Hill, and Tyreke Evans.

We should see a vast majority of these players hit true unrestricted free agency since the current CBA limits the length of non-rookie extensions to three years after the end of their existing contract. Since these individuals should be good enough to get four or more, I fully expect them to maximize their potential security and enjoy getting wooed for the first time as professionals. This shifted reality could lead to the power dynamics in the league changing more frequently than under previous agreements and make July 1 a much more interesting time each year.

Top-60 Players In NBA Today (Considering Everything)

For years now, I have wanted to do a piece evaluating NBA players on their value using a different rubric than the other quality entries out there. Rather than focusing on single season expectations like NBA Rank or a larger picture like Bill Simmons’ omnipresent Trade Value series, the goal here is look at overall long-term value without factors like a player’s connection with a franchise or fit within a specific system.

With a hat tip to Dave Cameron’s Trade Value pieces on Fangraphs, this logic parallels a “Fantasy Draft” in the NBA 2K or Madden series where all of the players with their current contracts get thrown into a big pool and selected by the whole league with blank rosters at the outset.

What I considered when making the list:

Player quality: How good a player is now as where they could be moving forward. Teams win championships with MVPs and top tier talent is the most valuable commodity in basketball, especially with individual max contracts. Truly elite players also typically translate into at least regular season success. For guys currently younger than their peak, their ceiling and the likelihood of reaching that ceiling matter a great deal. Versatility and longevity were major factors as well.

Player age: Since everyone on this list is a good basketball player, how much total value they will contribute to their teams comes more in both duration of success rather and degree. This factor takes older high quality players like Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowitzki out since there are similarly good players who will have longer remaining careers.

Contract: Since the NBA has a salary cap, luxury tax and Collective Bargaining Agreement to shape how teams can be built, the financial commitment to each player means a great deal. While the years and total dollars matter significantly, it is hard to understate the importance of “team control” through Restricted Free Agency since it allows a franchise to retain a player unless he undertakes extraordinary measures. For example, Dwight Howard and Andre Drummond will likely be free agents the same summer, yet Detroit can keep Drummond as long as they are willing to match any offer. Houston would love the same opportunity.

Positional value and scarcity: I value primary scorers, elite defenders and primary ballhandlers more than just about anything else on the floor because of how hard they are to find. True centers get pushed up as well because of how few of them are left in the league and the reverse is true for power forwards that cannot defend another position.

Durability/Injury Status: Players must be on the court in order to contribute. As such, a guy being more or less likely than others to miss meaningful time was considered in the process.

What was not considered when making this list:

Any specific connection between player and team: Certain players have higher or lower values for specific franchises due to their history with the franchise or the surrounding area (like Derrick Rose in Chicago or Kobe Bryant with the Lakers).

Effect selecting or not selecting a player would have on management’s reputation: One of my biggest gripes with Simmons’ consistently strong Trade Value column comes from players making it higher on the list since a GM would not trade them since it would make them look bad. Darko on the Pistons years ago and Andrea Barngnai under the Colangelo regime stand as classic examples.

For the record, only players currently on NBA contracts were considered for inclusion so Andrew Wiggins, Julius Randle, Dante Exum and company must wait until 2014.

60. Eric Bledsoe (PG, 23 years old, 1 year / $2.6m + RFA): An elite athlete even by NBA standards, Bledsoe has one more year to convert that physical potential into dominance on the floor. His defense should come along well even without much of a safety net in Phoenix while his shot creation and distribution still need plenty of work.

59. Taj Gibson (PF, 28 years old, 4 years / $38m): A rare commodity as a strong defensive power forward who is capable on offense. Coming into the league at 24 means that Gibson’s first big contract will carry him all the way to his 32nd birthday, which carries both positives and negatives in terms of this exercise since it covers his best years, but means his value may be reduced by the time he comes off the books.

58. Patrick Beverley (PG, 25 years old, 2 years / $1.7m + RFA): Like teammate Chandler Parsons, some of Beverley’s appeal comes from his insanely manageable contract. With two years remaining and restricted free agency on top of it (with full Bird rights, no less), adding a player who can be both productive and inexpensive makes a ton of sense. While some may say he has a lower upside than other PG’s, Beverley still has plenty of room to grow and has been effective on both sides of the ball, a genuinely rare combination at the position.

57. Carmelo Anthony (PF/SF, 29 years old, 1 year / $22.4m): On the short list of the best offensive players in the entire league and No. 6 on my theoretical MVP ballot last season, Carmelo gets hurt by the combination of his porous defense, incredibly high salary, and likely descent from his physical peak. As Zach Lowe noted recently, a full max contract for Carmelo after this season would likely make him the highest paid player in the entire league during his early thirties. He will provide value in the immediate but it comes at a heavy cost.

56. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (SF/SG, 20 years old, 3 years / $16.2m + RFA): If he can develop a reliable jumper from any distance, Kidd-Gilchrist could become one of the best swingmen in the entire league. The question is whether he can put that together because otherwise he has too many limitations to become a truly elite player. Love his defensive potential and willingness to be a cog in a successful team.

55. Dennis Schroeder (PG, 20 years old, 4 years / $7.5m + RFA): An excellent performance at the Nike Hoop Summit propelled the German prospect into the first round of the 2013 Draft, though not all the way into the lottery. He performed at a high level in a quality international league at just 19 and did a very good job against elite talent in the pre-draft process. Getting his jumper on track would make Schroeder even tougher to handle on pick and rolls and create new lanes for teammates. Seeing him as starter-quality at PG within two seasons makes him a necessary inclusion with his contract and potential.

54. Nikola Pekovic (C, 27 years old, 5 years / $60m): Finally getting the lucrative contract he was looking for allows us to look at Pekovic with a more certain vision of his future. Being a great offensive rebounder allows Pekovic to create more scoring opportunities and he puts an absolute beating on his opponents in the paint each game. That kind of physical presence helps give Minnesota an identity and gives a little more leeway to their perimeter players.

53. Paul Millsap (PF, 28 years old, 2 years / $19m): A change in scenery and big man teammates may finally give us a better idea of how good Paul Millsap can be. Signing such a cheap contract helps since so many of his power forward brethren are getting expensive deals.

52. LaMarcus Aldridge (PF, 28 years old, 2 years / $30.4m): With two All-Star selections and greater notoriety, it feels like Aldridge finally gets the appreciation he deserved years before. A capable scorer and solid rebounder, it would be great to see LMA take a step up in one phase of the game to earn a spot in the elite at his position as he enters his prime.

51. Andre Iguodala (SF/SG, 29 years old, 4 years / $48m): Four months older than Carmelo Anthony, Andre Iguodala benefits from having a skill set that should age pretty well and a locked in contract at a fair price. I am excited to see how he meshes with a Golden State core that has so many potent offensive players and could benefit from a versatile and dedicated defender.

50. Chandler Parsons (SF, 25 years old, 2 years / $1.5m or 1 year / $927k + RFA): The player with the second most interesting contract situation in the entire league has already shown his value as a complementary scorer and underrated passer. Having one or two more seasons at a ludicrously low salary makes him one of the best bargains in the entire NBA.

49. Omer Asik (C, 26 years old, 2 years / $16.7m): Such a compelling player because he has been an elite rebounder and defender while providing very little other than rebounding on offense. His unusual three-year contract looks even better now since the seasons equal out for bookmaking purposes after the Bulls did not match. At only 26, Asik still has time to work on his free throws and maximize the opportunities he creates as an offensive rebounder.

48. Chris Bosh (PF/C, 29 years old, 1 year / $19m): While we generally understand that LeBron James will elect to become a free agent by opting out of the final two years of his deal, I do not have the same certainty when it comes to Chris Bosh. For the record, Bosh could pick up one or both of the next two seasons at a combined value of $42.7 million. An All-Star big man and a crucial piece of Miami’s success, Bosh’s embracing of playing further away from the hoop has made him both more effective and less valuable in a more traditional system.

47. George Hill (PG, 27 years old, 4 years / $32m): Like Mike Conley, George Hill finally had a year where he put his good things together and showed what his prime could look like. Hill has plenty of room to grow as a playmaker and having strong surrounding talent should help that process. It would be great if he could reduce his turnovers, which have stayed shockingly consistent after his rookie season.

46. Damian Lillard (PG, 23 years old, 3 years / $10.8m + RFA): Last season’s Rookie of the Year needs to show that he has more potential than most older rookies. While he did beautifully on offense last year, his defense needs a ton of work. Fortunately, that kind of development happens with some frequency for young players in the league so he can be a key part of Portland’s rosy future.

45. Ty Lawson (PG, 25 years old, 4 years / $48m): A key player on Nuggets’ teams that have made the playoffs in each of his four professional seasons, Lawson became the engine of George Karl’s offense. He was able to generate assists and points even when saddled with swingmen (and Andre Miller) with limited scoring ability in half-court sets. Following Mike Conley’s lead and getting better on D while continuing the offensive barrage marks the best chance he has of getting to the next level as a contributor.

44. Victor Oladipo (SG, 21 years old, 4 years / $21.5m + RFA): The second pick in this year’s draft has shown a fascinating set of skills during his time at Indiana and could have even more depth to his game based on his surprising assist totals in Summer League and the early pre-season. Oladipo’s defense and energy allow him to be a pest and contributor from the get go while his offense continues to improve.

43. JaVale McGee (25 years old, 3 years / $34m): After two years with stronger rebounding, McGee fell off a little bit last season while continuing to be a monster at blocking shots. Improving as the roll guy in pick and roll situations and shooting better than 60 percent from the line would be useful developments since he appears to be quite limited as an offensive player.

42. DeMarcus Cousins (C, 23 years old, 5 years / $66.9m): Before his poorly timed extension, I had Cousins at 33 on this list because of his immense potential and the possibility of him being a game-changing Center [link]. Signing his new contract transferred the risk from Cousins to the Kings, making him less valuable under this approach.

41. Klay Thompson (SG/SF, 23 years old, 2 years / $3.4m + RFA): Potentially underrated because of Stephen Curry’s remarkable play during the stretch run last season, Klay Thompson is an excellent complementary offensive player due to his shooting. Making 40% of threes while attempting more than 6 per game has only been done by eleven players in the last decade, putting Thompson in interesting company. His defense should come along and could be helped in a big way by pairing with Andre Iguodala for a few seasons.

40. Enes Kanter (C, 21 years old, 2 years / $10.2m + RFA): Despite being 20 years old for most of the regular season, Enes Kanter was the sixth-best offensive rebounder in the entire NBA last year. While that may appear to be an aberration, he was 11th the season before so it appears to be a legitimate strength in his game. At this point, getting better at turning those boards into points would be a huge step since they yield so many easy looks. He should get better defensively over the next few seasons as well.

39. Kosta Koufos (C, 24 years old, 2 years / $6m): After starting his career as a young, raw big man prospect who looked to be a better scorer than defender, Kosta Koufos was a top-30 rebounder last year and top-10 in the lockout year while providing value on defense and scoring at a nice clip. Starting his sixth season on his fourth team, it can be difficult to remember that Koufos is only four months older than new teammate Ed Davis who gets plenty of ink on his potential moving forward.

38. Iman Shumpert (SG, 23 years old, 2 years / $4.3m + RFA): Despite missing 60 games in his two seasons, Shumpert has shown an interesting combination of skills that make him a valuable piece as a surprisingly weak position. His quality defense shines through even on the Knicks and making 40 percent of threes last season show the potential to be a “3-D” contributor with the potential to become a more complete offensive player.

37. Derrick Favors (PF/C, 22 years old, 5 years / $55m): Instead of getting paid after we find out how well he does in an increased role this season, Derrick Favors already got his big extension from the Jazz. His tantalizing potential made that a reality. Despite increasing his Rebound Rate and FT% each of his three seasons, now would be an excellent time for Favors to become truly destructive and establish himself as either a power forward or a center defensively. That clarification will help Utah and everyone else determine his best role as he develops.

36. Tiago Splitter (C/PF, 28 years old, 4 years / $36m): I cannot figure out if 28 seems too young or too old for Splitter. He has only played three years in the league and has done an excellent job hitting the ground running. After a year of adjusting to playing next to Tim Duncan, Splitter earned his fair extension by continuing to rebound well while also reducing his turnovers in a meaningful way. A little uptick on the boards or from the field could improve his standing among the big men in the league.

35. Ed Davis (C/PF, 24 years old, 1 year / $3.2m + RFA): After playing nearly 25 minutes per game his rookie season, Davis’ minutes have gone down each season despite his improvement on the court. Naturally, some of this stems from factors out of his control like being traded to Memphis though it shows the underutilized potential in his game. A solid scorer and respectable rebounder who feels more like a C than a PF at the moment.

34. Bradley Beal (SG, 20 years old, 3 years / $14.5m + RFA): We see many talented players make a jump after their rookie seasons thanks to having already made the adjustments on and off the court and growing more familiar with what it takes to be a pro. If Beal builds off the second half of his rookie season that largely coincided with John Wall’s return to health, he could be a special supporting talent incredibly quickly. Scoring 16.5 points per game on 47 percent shooting and 45.5 percent from three during that stretch shows what Beal can be. At just 20 years old, Beal is the second-youngest player on this list to have played in an NBA game and possesses the handles and passing ability to become far more than just a shooter.

33. Greg Monroe (C/PF, 23 years old, 1 year / $4.1m + RFA): Finally having playoff-caliber surrounding talent should make a quality passing big man like Monroe an even better player. It would be great to see him improve on both generating free throws and making them once he gets to the line even though shooting them in the low 70’s for a big is not too shabby. With just one season left on his rookie deal and Restricted Free Agency looming, Monroe should have all the motivation he needs to have a monster season.

32. Andrew Bynum (C, 26 years old, 2 years / $24m): Bynum sits at the top of a group of young big men with question marks because he has already shown that he can produce at an elite level. His strange injury history and behavior stuff hurts him but the quality of play he has shown on the floor (particularly at such a young age for a big man) makes him the one I would be most interested in rolling the dice on, particularly with such little guaranteed money.

31. Ricky Rubio (PG, 23 years old, 2 years / $9m + RFA): Already an elite passer at just 23 years old, Ricky Rubio needs to convert more of his own scoring opportunities to keep defenses on the toes while improving on defense in order to enhance his value to his teams. A three-point shot or better finishing at the basket would make a world of difference.

30. Mike Conley (PG, 26 years old, 3 years / $26.7m): After coming into the league extremely young for a PG, Conley finally put it all together in a strong 12-13 campaign. His defense helped make Memphis even tougher to score against while his offense continued to impress. If Conley can continue to improve from here, he could push his way into the larger discussion of the best young talents in the league.

29. Harrison Barnes (SF, 21 years old, 3 years / $9.8m + RFA): After dropping in the draft because of his disappointing collegiate performance, Barnes had a rookie season that showed his potential even if he cannot become a lead scorer or lock-down defender against NBA talent. Shooting 35.9 percent from deep in his first year with the longer three-point line bodes well for how Barnes can adapt to the professional game.

28. Nerlens Noel (C/PF, 19 years old, 4 years, $14.3m + RFA): My No. 1 rated player in the 2013 draft class actually got more valuable by falling all the way to the sixth pick even if he may miss this season. That drop took a little under $10 million off of his four-year deal. Noel can be a difference-maker on defense immediately while developing on offense.

27. Al Horford (C/PF, 27 years old, 3 years / $36m): A surprisingly consistent player considering how most players develop over the course of their career- his third, fourth and fifth seasons had nearly identical WS/ 48 (which takes out factors like Minutes Played which have varied for Horford). I would love to see him play with a quality point guard, or a more collaborative elite scorer since either could bring out new wrinkles of his game.

26. Blake Griffin (PF, 24 years old, 5 years / $95m): A great player who falls a little because of his gigantic contract and questions surrounding how he will develop his game. A power forward without range on his jumper creates problems for spacing and Griffin simply has not made that a weapon in his offensive arsenal four years into his NBA career. Being a strong but not transcendent rebounder helps quite a bit and his elite athleticism provides a base for the improvement that should come.

25. Kenneth Faried (PF, 23 years old, 2 years / $3.6m + RFA): One of the most underrated players in the league over the past two seasons. Simply put, his rookie year was special and he had some great flashes during a sophomore campaign marred somewhat by injury. Even though the power forward position has become more stacked in recent seasons with players like Love, Griffin and Aldridge, Faried stands out because of his combination of excellent rebounding, competent offense and solid defense. Having that package with two more years on a super cheap deal and then Restricted Free Agency helps propel him over more expensive players of a similar caliber.

24. Tony Parker (PG, 31 years old, 2 years / $25m): The oldest person on this list, Tony Parker combines magical play with a very nice contract. In fact, he is young and crafty enough to play for years to come as long as his body acquiesces.

23. Larry Sanders (C, 24 years old, 5 years / $47.1m): Already a strong defender and rebounder, LARRY SANDERS! may be hurt this season by the downgrade at point guard from Brandon Jennings to Brandon Knight. While Jennings’ willingness to pass left much to be desired last year, it may be hard for Knight to get the ball to Sanders in the best spots for him to succeed on that end. Regardless, SANDERS! is an impact player on defense who can be the anchor on a defense with a reasonable long-term contract.

22. Roy Hibbert (C, 26 years old, 2 years / $29.2m): If we see the Hibbert that battled in the playoffs rather than the one from most of the regular season, he could become a game-changing player on a truly great team. A potential candidate for Defensive Player of the Year last season due to his role in Indiana’s team success on that end, Hibbert should be both more aggressive and more efficient on offense to help carry more of the scoring load on the Pacers.

21. John Wall (PG, 23 years old, 6 years / $87.5m): Even though getting the max felt like an inevitability for John Wall despite his injury history, locking him up to a five-year full max contract still carries plenty of risk. Expanding on his phenomenal second half of the 12-13 season could firmly put Wall into the conversation of best young PG’s in the league even without a reliable long-range jumper. He has turned his biggest weakness into a neutral point at a young age and has a great sense of how to run an NBA offense while getting his teammates engaged.

20. Jonas Valanciunas (C, 21 years old, 3 years / $11.9m + RFA): Over the course of the coming season, we could see Valanciunas make the biggest jump of any player already in the Top 25 of these rankings. Valanciunas has plenty of skill and the athleticism to make opposing centers struggle on both ends of the floor. At this point, we just need to see his potential turn into even better production in real NBA games.

19. Serge Ibaka (PF/C, 24 years old, 4 years / $49.4m): At this point, Ibaka stands as the closest to complete of the young power forwards in the league. His defense garners plenty of attention and praise while his offense has come along the past few seasons. Last season, Ibaka was the best shooter on the Thunder from 16-23 feet while attempting about the same amount of those shots as Kevin Durant.

18. Jimmy Butler (SG/SF, 24 years old, 2 years / $3.1m + RFA): With another year of proving himself, Butler could very well end up in the conversation with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George a little later on the list. He has immense potential as a defender and exactly the right coach to maximize his abilities on that end, yet improving his offense offense will likely end up making Butler a more central player in the league down the line.

17. Brook Lopez (C, 25 years old, 2 years / $30.4m): For a player with a pretty well established niche and reputation, Brook Lopez did an excellent job showing he can be an all-around player instead of just a scorer. Improving both his block rate and rebound rate in the same season indicates the potential to alter the game on defense and getting lessons from Kevin Garnett may accelerate that process.

16. Dwight Howard (C, 27 years old, 3 years / $64.4m): In 10-11, Howard put together a simply fantastic season and propelled Orlando into the fourth seed in the Eastern Conferene at just 25 years old. Just two years after that point, we have to see if Howard can return to that form on a team similarly well-suited to maximize his talents. Playing with an elite scorer in a system where he can thrive should tell the world definitively whether D12 belongs in the discussion of elite big men for their time.

15. Kevin Love (PF/C, 25 years old, 2 years / $30.4m): Despite leaving plenty to be desired on defense both through the eye test and statistics, Love has been a fantastic player when healthy the last few seasons. An incredible rebounder and prototypical power forward offensively in today’s NBA means Love can play a major part on an elite team. Having an opt-out after next season hurts his value a little since he can elect to head wherever he likes as an Unrestricted Free Agent in 2015.

14. Joakim Noah (C, 28 years old, 3 years/$36.7m): Playing in the shadow of Derrick Rose has led to some lack of admiration for the impact Joakim Noah has on games. He plays excellent defense at the most important position on the floor for that while also contributing as a scorer and rebounder. His reasonable contract and consistency of production (even when hurt!) puts him at the head of this group of big men

13. Kawhi Leonard (SF, 22 years old, 2 years / $4.7m + RFA): Likely the centerpiece of the next iteration of the San Antonio Spurs, Leonard brings defensive talent and effort to make life insanely difficult for opponents while also rebounding at a quality clip for a swingman. Improving his ability to create for himself and others would help Leonard become a transcendent player and even more deserving of building around instead of being one of the best supporting pieces in the league.

12. Chris Paul (PG, 28 years old, 5 years / $107m): The best Point Guard in the world, CP3 falls down the list a little because I am absolutely terrified of his knees. Long-term excellence separates elite talents at this point in the list and the risk associated with his injury history makes Paul a little less valuable than the amazing players ahead of him.

11. Marc Gasol (C, 28 years old, 2 years/$30.7m): The best two-way big man in the league last season and Defensive Player of the Year contender should still have plenty of years of productive play as long as his body cooperates.  Also keep in mind that Gasol, Joakim Noah, Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic were all born in 1985. There are not many guys in the league right now that could make every team better immediately regardless of roster composition and Gasol features prominently on that list. Moves down a little bit because of his age and lack of time under team control.

10. Paul George (SF/SG, 23 years old, 6 years / $93.3m): Already an impressive defensive player and the frontrunner to become the league’s best perimeter stopper as he gets older, Paul George needs to develop more on offense to move into the superstar tier. Totally deserving of his max extension as long as his game progresses like it should at just 23.

9. Stephen Curry (PG, 25 years old, 4 years / $44m): The best shooter in the league right now (possibly ever) finally starts the contract extension he signed last summer after a stirring playoff run. Being an impossible cover makes him an even more dangerous distributor since teams cannot afford to lapse. His underappreciated defensive instincts should allow the Baby-Faced Assassin to build on last year’s success and become a lynchpin for seasons to come.

8. Kyrie Irving (PG, 21 years old, 2 years / $12.6m + RFA): While already a strong offensive force as a primary ballhandler and scorer, Irving has the physical tools to make a Rose-esque leap on defense with a head coach that can get it out of him. Still ludicrously young and improving, Irving has another two seasons on his rookie deal and then team control through his mid-twenties.

7. Andre Drummond (C, 20 years old, 3 years / $8.3m + RFA): Even with only 10 NBA starts under his belt, Drummond earned this high of a spot because of his combination of insane potential and ridiculously cheap contract. Since blocks and rebounds were both recorded, only three players have ever grabbed at least 21 percent of possible rebounds and blocked at least six percent of the shots they faced: Marcus Camby in 05-06, Greg Oden in 09-10 (when he only played in 21 games) and Andre Drummond last season. That’s it. Even moving those lines down to 20 percent and 5.5 percent adds in a strong group including Ben Wallace (2x), Dikembe Mutombo (3x), Shaq and Dwight Howard (2x). Achieving that with so much room to grow on offense makes Drummond a special talent worthy of this place on the list.

6. James Harden (SG, 24 years old, 5 years/$80m): After an eye-opening final season in Oklahoma City, Harden showed that he could make a huge impact with a heavier load and weaker surrounding talent in Houston last year. His herky jerky offensive game makes him a brutal cover and he has become excellent at both getting to the line and making those free throws. Any increase in skill or effort on defense would be another huge positive for a guy with so much remaining potential.

5. Russell Westbrook (PG, 24 years old, 4 years/$64.8m): An argument can be made for Russell Westbrook being the most underappreciated elite player in the NBA today. He has the physical tools and intensity to be an impactful player on defense and provides a chaotic positive force on offense. At only 24 on Opening Day, Westbrook has plenty of time to work out the kinks in his game and become an even better facilitator.

4. Derrick Rose (PG, 25 years old, 4 years / $77.8m): A guarantee of a return to his pre-injury form would potentially jump Rose to the third spot considering how good he was during his MVP season. Rose’s combination of defensive ability, offensive capability, and the desire to improve puts him at a higher level than any other young point guard while he still has plenty of room to grow into an even better player. A richer contract than most of the players ahead of him along with the injury uncertainty puts him just outside the top ten for the time being.

3. Anthony Davis (PF/C, 20 years old, 3 years/$18m + RFA): Out of all of the unfinished big men who are strong on one side of the floor, Anthony Davis has the best chance of becoming an all-around force. His late growth spurt helped give him a deeper offensive skill set and should allow him to fit in the stereotypical power forward role on offense. While he should be able to handle most interior players defensively, Davis may end up being a different kind of elite defensive player than anchors like Ben Wallace and Dwight Howard due to his slimmer build.

2. LeBron James (SF/PF, 28 years old, 1 year/$19m): Unequivocally the best player in the world right now. LeBron ends just out of the top spot because his opt-outs after each of the next two seasons combined with a proven willingness to leave his current franchise for a better overall situation make him substantially more risky for a franchise than the next guy.

1. Kevin Durant (SF, 25 years old, 3 years/$57m): At times last year I caught myself watching Durant in awe and then realizing that he still should be ahead of his prime seasons as a basketball player. Durant has become a phenomenal offensive talent who already can be efficient despite carrying a large portion of the load on that end. Any improvement on defense makes him a deadlier player and even easier to build a championship team around.

2013-14 NBA Season Preview

While the Western Conference has six teams (Clippers, Thunder, Rockets, Grizzlies, Warriors) in its first tier, the Eastern Conference is a tier of one (Heat) with the Bulls, Pacers and Nets vying for the second tier.

The Misses Of The 2010 NBA Draft

There are seven first-round picks from 2010 not currently on an NBA roster (Aldrich, Henry, Babbitt, Brackins, Elliott Williams, Damion James, Dominique Jones, Lazar Hayward). At this point in free agency, all would be happy to play for the minimum.

The NBA's Mediocrity Treadmill Since 84-85

The treadmill is somehow both more and less common than some might think. While teams tend to fall within the 30-49 win range, as would be expected in such a competitive league, the dreaded never-ending stream of late lottery picks is uncommon.

2013 NBA Mock Draft (Final Edition)

Draft day has finally arrived and while everyone pines for the 2014 class already, this one has the chance to be sneaky good in the 'many quality starters' variety.

2013 NBA Mock Draft (Wednesday/Quality Of Opp. Edition)

In this mock, we include the PER of each player based on the quality of opponent. Even statistics in this context can only go so far, but helps move beyond the possibility of inflation against competition that isn't even close to being NBA caliber.

2013 NBA Mock Draft (Draft Week Edition)

Entering draft week in a draft universally labeled as weak preceding the best draft of the decade, few people are talking themselves into falling in love with any specific player as fervently as usual.

2013 NBA Draft Board

Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams, Rudy Gobert, Otto Porter and Alex Len join Nerlens Noel at the top of our draft board.

The Eliminated (First Round Teams)

The Lakers, Clippers, Nets, Rockets, Nuggets, Hawks, Celtics and Bucks were the first eight teams eliminated from the playoffs and in this edition, we look at their main questions heading into the offseason.

No Bad Drafts, Just Bad Drafters

One of the weirder aspects of NBA draft coverage is the groupthink mentality that quickly emerges and downplaying the quality of a draft class seems to be a pastime for many “NBA insiders.” Far too often, teams deal away first round picks thinking the guaranteed contract that comes with it is a burden rather than an asset.

How GMs Escape Proper Scrutiny

NBA teams hold coaches to a stricter standard than they do general managers, yet a coach can only be as good as the players his front office gives him.

2013 Amnesty Primer

As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0,” we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time.

NBA's Aging Curve

Ten-year NBA veterans should have the respect basketball fans for what they have accomplished in their careers, but that doesn’t mean they no longer have to prove they are worthy of minutes. In fact, it’s the exact opposite. The burden of proof should be on the veteran to show he’s capable of overcoming the aging curve.

Atlantic Division Preview

The Knicks, Nets, Raptors and 76ers should all be improved in 12-13, which could put the Celtics' five season Atlantic Division winning streak on the line.

The Choices of James Harden

If James Harden wants to know what his future will look like depending on whether he remains with the Thunder or signs a max deal elsewhere, all he has to do is look at the careers of Joe Johnson and Manu Ginobili.

Grassroots Basketball Since 'The Last Shot'

Grassroots basketball has changed dramatically in the 18 years since “The Last Shot”, a book about Stephon Marbury and several of his Lincoln High teammates was published. Summer league teams and All-Star camps, in their infancy in 1994, are now the main avenue for even low and mid-major players to be identified by college coaches.

2012-13 NBA Power Rankings

The Heat, Thunder and Lakers appear to be a cut above the remainder of the NBA, but how do the 27 other teams rank?

The Dwight Trade Orlando Needs To Seek

In dealing Dwight Howard, the Orlando Magic should look for a package similar to the one David Stern got the New Orleans Hornets for Chris Paul: a star-caliber talent, a high draft pick and no long-term salary obligations.

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