Unfortunately for the Golden State Warriors, the Collective Bargaining Agreement works against them in a very real way this summer. The rumors that Dwight Howard has interest in the Warriors can only be construed as incredibly encouraging in terms of the development of the franchise, but acquiring him would be very difficult to accomplish this summer.

One of the new CBA rules that goes into effect this summer limits teams who are paying the luxury tax. In short, there is a salary level above the luxury tax called the apron ($4 million in salary above the luxury tax line) and teams over that line cannot do transactions like signing a player to the full mid-level exception, using the Bi-Annual exception, and starting this year they cannot acquire players via sign-and-trade. That limitation means that a team cannot sign a player and immediately trade them to a team over the apron, not the other way around. On top of that, doing any of these three things turns what usually functions as a soft cap that franchises can go over for times into a hard one, meaning that teams using these transactions absolutely cannot go over the apron for any period of time for any reason that season.

While we do not know exactly where the luxury tax line will be for 2013-14, it stood at $70.307 million last season so the apron was $74.307 million.

At the present moment, if Brandon Rush takes his player option and Carl Landry declines his, the Warriors sit at $71,680,588 with 13 players on the books (Curry, Lee, Bogut, Thompson, Barnes, Green, Ezeli, Rush, Jefferson, Biedrins, Bazemore, Jones and Machado). Even without any money allotted for Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry, the team would have approximately $2.6 million under the apron with a small amount of wiggle room depending on guarantees to the minimum guys. If they acquired Howard via sign-and-trade, the apron number would become a hard cap, so they would effectively need to either shed 2013-14 salary in the sign-and-trade, or fill out the roster with bare bones players.

On top of all that, the Lakers would have to agree to send Dwight to a division rival, which may be dicey in and of itself, but would also require the Warriors to give up some players of value. While the Lakers would ask for Stephen Curry, a deal using either Klay Thompson or Harrison Barnes would likely still be palatable enough to make a trade possible. To balance the salaries Bob Myers would likely have to give up either Andrew Bogut or David Lee (almost definitely Bogut) since Biedrins and Jefferson provide no value beyond their expiring contracts. My best guess at a trade the Lakers would accept is Thompson or Barnes, Bogut, and either Draymond Green or Festus Ezeli for Howard.

Dwight’s maximum salary for 2013-14 stands at $20,513,178 since that is a five percent increase on his current salary. As such, the deal I laid out above (Klay, Bogut, and Festus for Dwight, let’s say) would actually cost the Warriors an extra $3.13 million and put them over the apron without corresponding moves.

Getting Dwight this summer sits within the realm of possibility but it would come at a steep, steep cost unless the Lakers are more generous than expected.

The other factor looming over this whole situation has to be the way the Warriors chose to load up their 2013-14 cap figure. By using the amnesty provision on Charlie Bell’s expiring contract back in 2011, the Golden State front office lost the ability to shed either Andris Biedrins or David Lee’s contract at any point over the next few seasons. Using the amnesty on either would have given the Warriors the flexibility to make a move for Dwight Howard right now without the apron coming into play.

What makes matters even more challenging this summer was the decision to effectively purchase the 2012 draft pick used to select Festus Ezeli for Richard Jefferson’s $11 million contract for 2013-14. Steven Jackson’s deal expires this summer and thus would have become cap space at this point. Switching that move or the amnesty decision would have given the Warriors enough space under the apron to acquire Dwight and retain either Jack or Landry with a little bit left over.

While it would make dramatically more sense to acquire a high-level free agent next summer when the team has cap space, the Warriors conceptually could trade for Dwight Howard this summer even though key decisions made over the last few years created a substantially more difficult path to doing so.

Follow @DannyLeroux

As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0” in July, we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time. One fun component of the rule is that we know exactly which players are eligible for it and that number can only decrease over time since the players had to have been under contract with the same team before the new CBA. As such, any trades, extensions, or contract expirations thin out the list. 

The other thing to remember is that most of the benefit of using the amnesty provision comes from additional flexibility in terms of the salary cap- the only money savings owners get from using it come from any reduction in luxury tax payments and whatever a “winning” team bids for that player on amnesty waivers.

Atlanta Hawks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Al Horford

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Since the team traded all of its long-term contracts (except Horford) and potential candidates like Zaza Pachulia’s contracts expire this summer, the only player left for Atlanta to utilize the provision on is Horford. That is beyond unlikely.

Boston Celtics

Players Eligible for amnesty: Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Paul Pierce

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. After signing five different players to contracts over $5 million for 2013-14 this past off-season, the Celtics took all the incentive out of using the amnesty provision on Pierce in 2013.

Brooklyn Nets

Used amnesty provision on Travis Outlaw (December 15, 2011) 

Charlotte Bobcats

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Most likely amnesty decision: Tyrus Thomas in 2014. As of now, the Bobcats do not have enough salary on the books to necessitate making an amnesty move this coming summer. As such, the most likely play is to keep Thomas until the summer of 2014 when Ben Gordon’s contract is cleared from the ledger. As of now, Charlotte only has players on rookie deals and Brendan Haywood getting money then, so it could be the right time to strike.

Chicago Bulls

Players Eligible for amnesty: Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Carlos Boozer

Most likely amnesty decision: Carlos Boozer in 2014. The decision has become even clearer now, though the Taj Gibson extension could push the timeline up a little bit if the Bulls are feeling the pressure financially next summer. However, Boozer’s last year comes the same year that Luol Deng becomes a free agent, so a proactive Bulls team could make some FA/trade noise since they have less money on the books.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Used amnesty provision on Baron Davis (December 14, 2011) 

Dallas Mavericks

Used amnesty provision on Brendan Haywood (July 12, 2012)

Denver Nuggets

Used amnesty provision on Chris Andersen (July 17, 2012)

Detroit Pistons

Players Eligible for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva

Most likely amnesty decision: Charlie Villanueva in 2013. It seemed like a foregone conclusion in 2012 and absolutely has to be done in 2013. I cannot see a tangible benefit to leaving his $8.58 million on the cap for 2013-14.

Golden State Warriors 

Used amnesty provision on Charlie Bell (December 11, 2011) 

Houston Rockets

Used amnesty provision on Luis Scola (July 13, 2012)

Indiana Pacers

Used amnesty provision on James Posey (December 12, 2011) 

Los Angeles Clippers

Used amnesty provision on Ryan Gomes (July 18, 2012)

Los Angeles Lakers

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Most likely amnesty decision: Metta World Peace in 2013. Since the Lakers have to decide about amnesty during the first week after the July moratorium, they will not have enough information on Kobe’s progress to amnesty him. Furthermore, they would only yield a big benefit if Dwight Howard leaves the Lakers and we likely will not know that at such an early stage in the process. Even though the Lakers continue to need a quality small forward in the worst way, shedding the final year of World Peace's onerous deal seems like the best play. 

Memphis Grizzlies

Players Eligible for amnesty: Zach Randolph, Mike Conley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Zach Randolph (in 2014)

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Shedding Rudy Gay’s big contract means that the Grizzlies do not have to amnesty anyone in order to avoid the biggest costs of the new luxury tax system. At the present time, the only salaries the team has on the books for 2014-15 are Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley Jr, Tayshaun Prince, Darrell Arthur and Tony Wroten. Add in a rookie or two and you still have a workable structure. At this point it feels more likely that Randolph would get traded than amnestied since he would still provide value to the team.

Miami Heat

Players Eligible for amnesty: Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Joel Anthony, Mike Miller

Most likely amnesty decision: Joel Anthony in 2014. The reigning champs did not lose a single player from their amnesty list over the past year thanks to roster stability. Mike Miller’s health could end up making him the pick but Joel Anthony’s $3.8 million final season stands out since the Heat do not have a veteran shooter locked up for 2014-15 at this time. Look for one of the two of them to be shed then, though.

Milwaukee Bucks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Drew Gooden and Larry Sanders

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Drew Gooden

Most likely amnesty decision: Drew Gooden in 2013. At this point, Drew Gooden’s two remaining years are the only reasonable option left for amnesty purposes. Considering Brandon Jennings will get a major pay raise this summer and the Bucks will need any flexibility they can get whether or not they retain either Monta Ellis or JJ Redick, look for Gooden to go even though the team stands unlikely to benefit in any way other than cap room. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Used amnesty provision on Darko Milicic (July 12, 2012)

New Orleans Hornets

Players Eligible for amnesty: No one

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: No one

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. By trading all three players eligible for the amnesty provision (Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Jarrett Jack), the Hornets became the first team to be assured not to use it this time around.

New York Knicks

Used amnesty provision on Chauncey Billups (December 10, 2011)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Kendrick Perkins

Most likely amnesty decision:  Not use it. We will have to see how Sam Presti handles the Kendrick Perkins situation but my read is that they will not utilize it after either of the next two seasons. Nick Collison would have a slight chance in 2014 if he were not so popular with the team and management.

Orlando Magic 

Used amnesty provision on Gilbert Arenas (December 9, 2011) 

Philadelphia 76ers

Used amnesty provision on Elton Brand (July 12, 2012)

Phoenix Suns

Used amnesty provision on Josh Childress (July 16, 2012)

Portland Trail Blazers

Used amnesty provision on Brandon Roy (December 15, 2011)

Sacramento Kings

Players Eligible for amnesty: John Salmons, DeMarcus Cousins

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: John Salmons

Most likely amnesty decision: John Salmons in 2013. Since Salmons’s deal is only partially guaranteed ($1 million) in 2014-15, the Kings would have some flexibility in the 2013 offseason when Evans can be extended and Cousins will be one year away if they cut him loose at that point. With new ownership looking to make a splash, having some extra money this offseason could be useful to the Kings.

San Antonio Spurs

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tony Parker and Matt Bonner

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Matt Bonner

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Bonner’s partially guaranteed 2013-2014 salary would be a possibility but appears unlikely at best.

Toronto Raptors

Players Eligible for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Linas Kleiza, Andrea Bargnani

Most likely amnesty decision: Linas Kleiza in 2013. Utilizing amnesty on Bargnani would be too big an admission of defeat for management, though theoretically a change at the top coupled with more bad play could change the equation sufficiently to put Il Mago on the amnesty line. With that, getting a little bit more space in terms of the apron/tax line would be good for the Raptors if they are unwilling to bite the bigger bullet in the form of Bargnani.

Utah Jazz

Players Eligible for amnesty:  Derrick Favors

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. With only young buck Derrick Favors left as eligible to be amnestied, every conceivable sign points to the Jazz joining the Hornets in August 2013 as teams guaranteed not to use the provision.

Washington Wizards

Used amnesty provision on Andray Blatche (July 17, 2012)

In today’s NBA, there is no shame in being unconventional. We have a league in which the best offensive creator plays forward and the No. 2 seed in the East plays Carmelo Anthony as a power forward. Teams owe it to themselves and their fans to attempt to find the most effective combination of talent regardless of how it fits into the archetype of what an NBA five “should” look like.

Before the Golden State Warriors played the San Antonio Spurs in Game 3 on Friday, Mark Jackson said that “I am reacting to [the Spurs]” when deciding on a starting lineup that included both Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli in Tiago Splitter’s first game on the front line for the Spurs since he sprained his ankle last series. I immediately went “uh oh” because of the lack of recognition that statement showed.

In the words of George Costanza, the Warriors found plutonium by accident, playing true smallball only after David Lee’s injury took him off the floor and forced the coaching staff to stray from the self-created and arbitrary bonds of traditional positional definitions. In the first round, George Karl reacted the wrong way to this change and spent far too long trying to out-small the Warriors even though JaVale McGee did a solid enough job on the floor when the Nuggets did not overreact with two Centers at the same time. By not using his team’s own competitive advantage, Karl and Denver had to try and out-smalling the Warriors which proved next to impossible. The Nuggets got back into the series when the Coach of the Year realized that his talent could play their game better than a reactionary mess afraid of the strengths of his opponents rather than using their own muscle.

Proper spacing (particularly with a four that has legitimate range out to the three-point line) works well against more conventional teams because oftentimes that second big man will be uncomfortable stretching his defense out that far. Kenneth Faried has merits as a defensive player and plenty of energy but having Harrison Barnes out on the perimeter as the man he was supposed to be covering made him look foolish most of the time since he was out of his comfort zone as a defensive player. More importantly, it generated looks for Barnes and the rest of the team because it changed the structure of Denver’s defense both before the action started and the movement in their rotations.

In Game 3 of the second round, this change manifested itself early on. Having both Ezeli and Bogut on the floor together meant the Warriors only had three players who could make even a mid-range shot and it allowed San Antonio to start the game in a comfortable place on the defensive end. Furthermore, Ezeli getting two quick fouls in the first three minutes meant that Mark Jackson would have to be thinking about balancing his centers if Bogut ever got into trouble himself since the rookie backup already had very little wiggle room against one of the savviest big men in the history of the game. With the additional help of a few turnovers and some bad defensive possessions for Golden State, the Spurs ended the first quarter with a nine point lead and the Warriors never led again (though they did tie it in the second half).

In any series, one of the fundamental questions is which team has the advantage when both squads have their “best five” on the floor. While both Ethan Sherwood Strauss and Tim Kawakami have written bold and interesting pieces recently on David Lee’s potential place in that concept in the long term (my own take on that will be written over the next few days), the Spurs have a gigantic advantage when they can play Splitter without facing any major ill effects on the defensive end.

After Game 3, Gregg Popovich talked about how his players “know how to operate” when they can get their standard five out there together and that it feels “comfortable” for them. Even with David Lee on the floor, the Spurs’ starting five beats any normal Golden State five since they do that style better. That does not slight the Warriors- San Antonio had the third-best record in the entire NBA for a reason. Instead of taking their opponents to the limits of their ability and playing the game on their advantage, Mark Jackson and the Warriors ceded the high ground for the false positive of standardization and gave away any semblance of comfort or experience since Andrew Bogut and Festus Ezeli played about 20 seconds together in total during the regular season.

The Warriors still have a chance because they have a tactical strategy that has worked earlier in this series and against a solid Denver team last round. We just have to hope they understand that their only strong chance of winning the series comes from eschewing convention.

Follow @DannyLeroux