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10-Year NBA Win Rank Snapshot

A 10-year season-by-season Win Rank snapshot for an NBA franchise creates an insightful visual narrative.

Toronto Raptors: The quick rise of the 06-07 season ended up becoming an aberration of the Bryan Colangelo/Chris Bosh tenure. The Raptors were never able to become a contender with that roster and they have begun their climb all the way up to 11th this season without a franchise superstar, making Masai Ujiri’s job more difficult and more intriguing.

Brooklyn Nets: The Jason Kidd and Vince Carter trades set the Nets rapidly down to the bottom of the NBA and a costly roster around Deron Williams has brought them back into the top half. A continuation of their M-shaped trajectory is probable due to the nature of constructing a roster via trades and free agency instead of the draft.

New York Knicks: The Knicks haven’t had a top-5 finish since 96-97 and only did the arrivals of Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony brought the Knicks out of the twenties, where they’d been in all but one season since 2002. Re-signing Carmelo probably puts them on the M-shaped path of the Nets, while pulling together a better draft pick and multiple max contract slots in 2015 would almost certainly lead to a more sustainable way forward.

Boston Celtics: Since he’s done it before, Danny Ainge appears to again be quickly letting the Celtics get very bad with the hope of getting very good in very quick fashion. The Celtics nearly snuck into The Finals in 2012 despite finishing 10th in the NBA in the lockout-shortened season, but the fairly consistent decline of Pierce/Garnett/Allen is clear in this graph.

Philadelphia 76ers: Sam Hinkie inherited a team visibly on the NBA’s infamous mediocrity treadmill and the decision to begin a full-blown rebuild makes more sense in how badly the previous models were working. The 76ers have had just two top-10 finish since 90-91, as both the Charles Barkley and Allen Iverson eras were unsuccessful in building workable title contenders around future of Hall of Famers.

Indiana Pacers: On the mediocrity treadmill coming out of the Jermaine O’Neal/Ron Artest era, the Pacers very unexpected entered the NBA’s elite with the rise of Paul George and Roy Hibbert, two players not expected to become this good going into the draft.

Chicago Bulls: Squandering their position coming out of the Eddy Curry trade with the Ben Wallace signing and the preference of Tyrus Thomas over LaMarcus Aldridge or Brandon Roy in the short-term, the Bulls shot back up to the NBA’s best with the lottery win for Derrick Rose along with the decision to hire Tom Thibodeau. The Joakim Noah part of the Curry trade is what saved the Bulls from crashing back to the NBA’s bottom third following Rose’s injuries.

Cleveland Cavaliers: The departure of LeBron James in 2010 serves as the first of several L-shaped dives. The Cavaliers’ drop from 7th to 13th after they reached The Finals in 2007 was a stronger indication of the limitations around LeBron in hindsight than we realized when they had the best record in the NBA in 08-09 and 09-10. Despite drafting first overall twice in three seasons and fourth in two of them, there is a lot of work on the roster that needs to be done before they return to the top half of the NBA.

Detroit Pistons: The Pistons were good and then they weren’t very quickly, dropping from 2nd in 07-08 to 17th in 08-09 with the Iverson for Chauncey Billups trading proving disastrous in the short-term that season and the signings of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva with the created cap space mimicking the result in the long-term.

Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks have been moderately up but mostly down since Don Nelson’s departure in the late eighties. With just one top-10 finish since 1989, the Bucks have been consistently average until this 15-win season.

Miami Heat: The Shaquille O’Neal/Dwyane Wade run was always going to be a short one, but the speed of the fall exceeded expectations. Wade was trapped in mediocrity before the arrivals of LeBron and Bosh in 2010.

Washington Wizards: The supposed glory days of Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler looks far more modest in hindsight with 12th-15th finishes in those four seasons before injuries hit. The Wizards have been on the Thunder Model since John Wall’s arrival, but they appear to be a James Harden short with Otto Porter being their final high pick before becoming a playoff team.

Charlotte Bobcats: The Bobcats were unable to parlay successive seasons of high picks into more than a team with the 15th best record in the NBA and improving beyond 16th this season will be equally challenging without a pick in this class.

Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks escaped an eight-year run in the NBA’s cellar by jumping onto the mediocrity treadmill. Even as Danny Ferry as stripped significant portions of the roster, the Hawks have remained a playoff team somehow.

Orlando Magic: The Magic climbed steadily as Stan Van Gundy figured out how to construct a system around Dwight Howard, but they didn’t have enough young pieces to make it sustainable. When Howard was traded in 2012, the Magic predictably bottomed out altogether as part of the Thunder Model.

Los Angeles Clippers: The Brand/Cassell/Kaman run was a quick rise and fall for Mike Dunleavy, but winning the lottery in 2009 for Blake Griffin and trading for Chris Paul very quickly propelled the Clippers to the NBA’s elite strata with improvement each of their three seasons together.

Golden State Warriors: The 2007 and 2008 Warriors, built around Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson and a young Monta Ellis, were high on entertainment but just slightly above average in wins. The Warriors missed the playoffs in 2008 and then fell back to the bottom third of the NBA when Davis left for the Clippers. A healthy Stephen Curry and a better overall roster gave the Warriors a quick climb to the NBA’s top-10 in each of the past two seasons.

Phoenix Suns: The first year of the graph coincides with the arrival of Steve Nash in which they had the best record in the NBA. The bounce back season in 09-10 from 13th to 5th was the final chance for Nash, as the departure oStoudemire that offseason sent them down to the bottom half.

Sacramento Kings:  The Kings were a top-8 team from 00-01 until 04-05 and this graph shows the quick fall to the bottom of the league where they have been stuck without winning a lottery to draft the type of franchise cornerstone that can turnaround the franchise.

Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers have the most ‘what goes up must come down’ looking graph in the entire NBA. When Shaquille O’Neal was traded in 2004, they dropped to 21st, but quickly returned to 10th in 05-06 and the Pau Gasol trade/Andrew Bynum development made them elite again.

Oklahoma City Thunder: When the Thunder Model is referred to, this is what it looks like in terms of wins. The Ray Allen/Rashard Lewis Sonics fell swiftly from a great 04-05 season to 21st in 05-06 and Sam Presti put his foot on the drowning core. Three bad seasons followed for Kevin Durant, which is even more remarkably bad in hindsight considering how great he’s become, and then their meteoric rise to a perennial top-5 team.

Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers shot up from 24th to 16th to 7th with the Brandon Roy/LaMarcus Aldridge core before injuries derailed their chance at joining the elite. The Damian Lillard/Terry Stotts arrival prevented the Blazers from needing to bottom out and trade away Aldridge.

Minnesota Timberwolves: We’re missing the L-shape franchise player departure we have seen from other clubs since this graph doesn’t include the Wolves’ 03-04 season in which they finished 2nd in the NBA in wins. Kevin Love has brought the Wolves out of the very bottom of the NBA, but several bad drafts has the team weighed down to mediocrity.

Denver Nuggets: The departure of Carmelo didn’t hurt the Nuggets in the short-term, but the absence of an All-Star talent in this past injury-filled season exposed some of the roster construction issues.

Utah Jazz: The Jazz executed a quick rebuild out of the Malone/Stockton era around Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko, but they were a little short of ever reaching the top-5 despite making the 2007 Western Conference Finals. The Jazz fully embraced the youth movement this season by letting Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap walk.

San Antonio Spurs: Extend this out to 89-90 and the graph is even more impressive. The Spurs have been 10th or better every season except of course 96-97 when David Robinson was injured. The Spurs have been a top-5 team in wins in 18 of those 25 seasons. The gold standard in every way.

Houston Rockets: The Thunder Model will continue to be more frequently imitated, but the Rockets Model will be interesting to study should Dwight Howard and James Harden reach The Finals in one of the next three seasons. The Rockets never dropped below the middle of the NBA coming out of the Yao Ming/Tracy McGrady era, but they were able to construct a well-balanced team around two of the top-10 players in the league.

Memphis Grizzlies: The L-shape appears again with the Gasol trade in 06-07, but the rise back up to the top-10 is quick due to the Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph acquisitions.

Dallas Mavericks: The Dirk Nowitzki/Mark Cuban partnership has only produced one title, but it looks a lot like a slightly lesser version of the Gregg Popovich/Tim Duncan Spurs. The drop from 5th to 14th and 17th following the championship was part of a short-term plan for a long-term rebuilding with the hopes of landing Howard and Williams, but they’ve successively pieced it back together with undervalued assets like Monta Ellis.

New Orleans Pelicans: Chris Paul gave the then-Hornets a rapid turnaround, yet it proved unsustainable with an uncertain ownership and injury issues. Anthony Davis gave the Pelicans the chance to replicate the Thunder Model, but Dell Demps has been instructed to accelerate the timeline with costly moves for Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans.

Indiana's Hometown Floor General

It’s a cold morning on the campus of UMass-Boston in early March. All is well for the Indiana Pacers, who have had their shootaround moved to Dorchester because of a Boston Bruins game. The only question heading into the night’s game against the Boston Celtics is whether or not George Hill will play. 

Hill, the starting point guard by label only, landed awkwardly on his shoulder in a win over the Milwaukee Bucks two days earlier. He attempts several jumpers and discusses plays with Frank Vogel on one side of the court, while Indiana’s big men gather on the other end. He seems healthy enough, but the training staff will soon decide to keep Hill on street clothes as a precaution.

The decision makes sense given that the Pacers went into the March 1 game at 44-13, two games ahead of the Miami Heat for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Hill also sits the next day at home against Utah Jazz, but Indiana still wins both games.

As shootaround winds down a handful of players are still hoisting shots, but Hill strolls over to take a seat. After a few reporters gather information about his shoulder and status, it is proposed to the six-year veteran that a story is been written centered around him.

“On me? Why me? I’m not the guy here; you want to talk to Paul [George] or Lance [Stephenson],” Hill responds.

The truth is, while the Pacers have two All-Stars in George and Roy Hibbert, the front office and coaching staff have constructed a roster and put together a game-plan with a team-centric approach. Paul George was an MVP candidate early in the season and averages 21.7 points, but Indiana has five players averaging at least 10 points and eight shot attempts (six if you include Andrew Bynum).

“George is very low-key, but he’s a big character too,” Hibbert said of his teammate. “Don’t let him fool you though, he’s a funny dude, but he’s incredibly selfless.” 

Hill has seen his shot attempts decrease over the last year in conjunction with Stephenson’s improvement, but has still been the most efficient offensive player on the floor for the Pacers, who have struggled on that end. He has the highest oRTG (115) among rotation players, while Indiana ranks in the bottom third (103.8) overall.

George, Hibbert, Stephenson and even David West may garner more national attention, but Hill is vital to Indiana’s chances of upending Miami in the postseason.

“That’s who he is and that’s kind of who our whole team is,” Vogel said when told of how Hill reacted a lengthy-interview request. “We have a ton of team-first guys and guys that don’t want the individual spotlight. They want to be part of a true team. If it’s a difference-maker when you have evenly talented teams, how well you come together and show positive culture and chemistry. George is definitely one of our leaders in that regard.” 

The Pacers, despite their recent struggles, have cemented themselves as one of the best teams in the NBA and they should remain so for at least the next few years. Hill, who signed a five-year, $40 million deal in July 2012, has done wonders to help organization on and off the floor.

Hill, who was born and raised in Indianapolis, has helped bring fans back to Bankers Life Fieldhouse, which was nearly abandoned in the years immediately following the sub-.500 finishes and off-court issues that plagued the team in mid-to-late 2000s. His workmanlike approach and clean-cut lifestyle appeal to the club’s working class fans.

“I grew up during the Michael Jordan days, so he was one of the players that I looked up to and watched, but at the same time I was a huge fan of the Pacers,” he said. “I really couldn’t afford to get tickets or things like that, but I always kept tabs on them as far as watching them. I’d see them in public and certain places. When I was able to go to games, I certainly rooting for them.” 

Hill went on to star at Broad Ripple High School, where he earned 11 total letters in basketball, baseball and soccer. As a senior, he led the state in scoring (36.2), the fifth-best average in the history of the basketball-crazed state.

When the time came for Hill to choose a college, he put his family over the spotlight, committing to IUPUI so he could be closer to his ailing great-grandfather despite an offer from Indiana. The Jaguars were 61-30 in his three seasons (he was forced to redshirt in 2006-07 because of an injury). He left IUPUI fifth on the college’s all-time scoring list despite leaving with a year of eligibility remaining. Hill remained at IUPUI despite the unfortunate passing of his great-grandfather soon after he made his verbal commitment. He had a chance to change his mind, but passed on greener pastures yet again. 

“It was the commitment I gave coach [Todd] Howard and coach [Ron] Hunter,” Hill said of his decision to remain at IUPUI. “I gave them my word that I would start my career there and help try to put IUPUI on the map. I feel like things happen for a reason, so I stuck with my decision and it turned out well.” 

Hill, who is a few classes shy of his degree, has a lot of basketball left in him, but having that diploma in hand is a goal that rivals winning an NBA title on his list of desires. 

“I have 12 credit hours that I have to finish,” he told me. “I’ve been talking to the dean of the school about coming up with different plans that best fit my schedule and best fit their schedule to get my degree. That’s one of my goals in life.” 

IUPUI helped propel Hill to the NBA, but The Summit League isn’t a huge breeding ground for basketball talent. Before Nate Wolters landed with the Milwaukee Bucks this season, Hill had been the only alum of the conference in the NBA for decades. 

“Going to IUPUI, they always said ‘you never can make it to the NBA from there, it’s a small school,’ and things like that. I’ve always been a guy that likes to be the underdog. No one can tell me I can’t do something; I’m going to try to prove them wrong,” Hill explained. 

“In the NBA, it doesn’t matter where you are, if you can play they’ll come and find you. Knowing that and me being close to Conseco [Fieldhouse, now Bankers Life], I’d go down there and meet with guys like Ron Artest and play with them during the summer. That was one avenue that allowed me to open doors. People could see me playing with them at open gyms. I knew if I just continued to do what I had to do, I’d be fine.” 

Hill was rewarded for his loyalty and conviction. Despite being projected by some as mid-second round pick and being completely left off the board on other mock drafts, the San Antonio Spurs selected Hill with the 26th overall pick in 2008.

In three seasons as Tony Parker’s backup, Hill averaged 9.9 points, 2.4 assists and 2.4 assists in 24.6 minutes over 231 games. He also started 55 games for the Spurs, who gave him the ability to gain valuable postseason experience. In 20 playoffs games with San Antonio, Hill saw increased minutes and boosted his numbers accordingly -- 11.4 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists.

“How to be a winner and a positive teammate,” Hill said when asked what he learned from his time with the Spurs. “How to conduct myself on and off the court. There are things that I learned there that I’ve carried with me to this day. They’ve helped make me a better player here in Indiana.”

Hill spent the summer prior to the 2010-11 season working on his point guard skills with Spurs shooting coach Chip Engelland and assistant Chad Forcier. The duo pushed him to the brink physically, while suggesting that he work on both his three-point and teardrop shot. After hitting just 32.9% of his threes as a rookie, Hill has hovered around 37% since. He hasn’t been an elite shooter with the Pacers, but a consistent one nonetheless. Over the last three seasons, his basic shooting percentages haven’t deviated by more than a tenth of a percent.

“Everybody has to play to their strengths and who they are. He wasn’t raised through grammar school and everything as a pure point guard, a setup guy,” Vogel said when asked about the label of ‘point guard’. “He’s a score-first guy, but he’s pretty good at setting people up too. He’s a good leader. He runs the point guard position for us in his way and does a good job of it.”

Looking to fortify the roster with a respected, seasoned player, Larry Bird and then-general manager David Morway swung a deal with the Spurs for Hill on draft night in 2011. The Pacers selected Kawhi Leonard with the 15th pick for San Antonio and shipped him southwest for Hill. Less than three years later, the trade has been a rare win-win. 

Popovich called Hill that night to inform him of the trade. When the coach had a hard time communicating with one of his more-trusted players, Hill knew his time with the Spurs had come to an end. 

“I do things in the summers for little kids, as far as camps and things like that, and I was actually going to a radio show to promote an event I was having when I got the call from Pop,” Hill remembered. “When he actually couldn’t talk easily with me, I knew something was up.” 

Hill was headed home, which made the news a little bit easier to digest, especially for his family. 

“They were very excited to have me come back home where it all started. I get to play in front of my family and friends in the city I grew up in, it’s something that you can only dream about. It was probably one of the happiest days of their lives,” Hill said with a smile. 

He was heavily involved in the community during his three years in Texas, but the trade that brought him back to Indianapolis has allowed Hill to give back to the community that helped make him the player and man he has become. He has help fund and create several leagues and tournaments for the youth of Indianapolis. Hill also supports young dancers (G3 Steppers), veterans (Wish for Our Heroes) and the fight against poverty (Kids Against Hunger). 

Along with Paul George, Hill formed the G2 zone, which rivals Hibbert’s Area 55 as the loudest section at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. His presence in the community has been a breath of fresh air. 

“That’s something I build on. I said when I made it to the NBA; I would give back to the community and be a positive role model in my community, which is on a downfall right now as far as homicides and things like that,” Hill said. “I’m trying to be an outlet for kids and ensure them that no matter where you come from, or where you are, anything can happen if you put your mind to it. Since my rookie year I’ve be working on that. I started my AAU program -- George Hill Rising Stars -- and I’m on the board for Wish for Our Heroes and going to Haiti with Kids Against Hunger.”

The Pacers were on the upswing when Hill arrived, having ended a four-year playoff drought the preceding spring when they gave the Chicago Bulls all they could handle in the first round, but they really took off during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season. Since Hill was acquired and West signed, Indiana was won 17 playoff games. If they are able to cure their late-season woes in time for the postseason, they’ll add to that impressive total. 

“When I first got here Larry said he wanted to revamp this team and bring in high-character guys,” Hill said. “He wanted guys that wanted to be here, wanted to turn a program around and wanted to win. Knowing that, that he believed in me I’ve told him I won’t let him down, I’ll try to be the best player that I can on the court and the best guy off of court by leading and showing the young guys how to be professional.”

Hill is a good free throw shooter, but he doesn’t get to the line often. This season, almost half of his shot attempts have come from behind the three-point line. That appears to be by design. 

“He’s a floor general for us. He spreads the floor and makes the right play every possession,” Paul George said. “He’s probably one of the best defenders at his position as well, so he’s tied to what this team is all about.” 

Hill isn’t having the best offensive season of his career, but the Pacers need him to score or facilitate to help an offense that has sputtered lately. After averaging 98.5 points through the All-Star break (52 games), the Pacers are scoring just 92.9 points in 26 games since.

Indiana scores 4.6 more points per 100 possessions with Hill on the floor than they do when him on the bench. He’s also underrated defensively, using his huge wingspan to hamper opposing guards.

“He’s solid for us, and always makes play for us,” West said. “He’s been holding steady at the point guard position. He does his job and does it well. We need him.” 

The Pacers have known all along that they need Hill, but that has never been more apparent than now. He won’t receive any votes for an individual award, unlike many of his teammates, but that’s just fine with Hill, who would rather blend into the surroundings than find himself at the forefront. 

“I don’t do this for attention,” he said. “I just do this because I love it and I want to win. I never do anything for personal gain and to flaunt it. That’s why I said ‘Why me?’ I’m just a low-key guy at the bottom. I just want to help this team win.”

2014 First Round Picks (Which Teams Own The Picks?)

While RealGM has an excellent database of the draft picks that have been traded between teams, I wanted to put together a summary more focused on the upcoming draft. For the sake of clarity, this version will only deal with the first round.

Atlanta Hawks- Have the right to swap their own pick with Brooklyn’s. At this point, it appears Atlanta will just keep their own and move on.

Boston Celtics- Have their own first and the less favorable of Atlanta and Brooklyn, likely Brooklyn right now. They have a future first from the Sixers as well, but it only goes this year if Philadelphia makes the playoffs. We all know that will not happen.

Brooklyn Nets- No matter what, they lose their pick without getting one in return.

Charlotte Bobcats- Their own first goes to Chicago as long as the Bobcats stay remotely on track (top-10 protected) but they pick up Portland’s unless the Blazers effectively lose out. The lingering question is Detroit- if the pick is 1-8, the Pistons keep it but if it’s 9th or worse it goes to Charlotte. My gut feeling is that once Detroit knows they will not make the playoffs we will see a push to the bottom reminiscent of the 2012 Warriors.

Chicago Bulls- Have their own pick and Charlotte’s unless the Bobcats collapse. The Sacramento pick they acquired in the Luol Deng trade is top-12 protected so it will not come this year.

Cleveland Cavaliers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Dallas Mavericks- One of the more interesting situations in the league. By having top-20 protection on their pick (it goes to Oklahoma City if it falls 21-30 this year), the Mavs could lose their pick if they make the playoffs. Right now, the bottom seeds in the West look to be about even with the 3-4 spots in the East, so it could go either way.

Denver Nuggets- They keep the better of their pick and New York’s, sending the worse one to Orlando.

Detroit Pistons- Keep their pick if it is eighth or better, otherwise it goes to Charlotte. I fully expect them to understand the incentives and lose enough to retain it.

Golden State Warriors- Their first goes to Utah no matter what.

Houston Rockets- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Indiana Pacers- Their pick is going to Phoenix as a part of the Luis Scola trade from last summer.

Los Angeles Clippers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Los Angeles Lakers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Memphis Grizzlies- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Miami Heat- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Milwaukee Bucks- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Minnesota Timberwolves- The pick is top-13 protected, meaning they have to make the postseason or have the best record of any non-playoff team to send it to Phoenix. At this point, it looks like the pick will be No. 13 and thus the Wolves will keep it.

New Orleans Pelicans- Their pick goes to Philadelphia unless it lands in the top-five. It will be hard for the Pelicans to jump enough of the teams “ahead” of them, but they still have a shot of jumping them in the lottery itself.

New York Knicks- They lose their pick no matter what, though the destination could change.

Oklahoma City Thunder- They have their own pick and get Dallas’ first if it ends up between 21 and 30, certainly a possibility.

Orlando Magic- Retain their own pick and get the less favorable of Denver and New York’s selections. This could end up swinging on whether the Knicks can make the playoffs- if they do, the pick falls a few spots to No. 15.

Philadelphia 76ers- They keep their own pick as long as they miss the playoffs (just a formality at this point) and pick up one from New Orleans as long as it falls outside the top five.

Phoenix Suns- They have their own pick and Indiana’s on lock and appear likely to pick up Washington’s since the Wizards should make the playoffs. Minnesota’s pick has top-13 protection, so I expect the Suns to only end up with three this year.

Portland Trail Blazers- Their pick is going to Charlotte unless the Blazers have a truly epic collapse.

Sacramento Kings- Their pick has top-12 protection, so the Kings look like they will keep it even if they rattle off some late-season wins.

San Antonio Spurs- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Toronto Raptors- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.

Utah Jazz- They have both their own pick and Golden State’s.

Washington Wizards- They will send their pick to Phoenix barring a major letdown.

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