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The Eliminated (First Round Teams)

These eight teams extended their seasons with a first round playoff series, but their offseason begin sooner than they were hoping following their elimination.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Big Questions:

- Which of their free agent guards do the Bucks want to bring back?

- Which of their free agent guards will give them the best chance to re-sign him?

- How much more do they need to add to a big man rotation with Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova and John Henson?

Notable Free Agents:  Brandon Jennings (Restricted), Monta Ellis (Player Option), JJ Redick (Unrestricted), Samuel Dalembert (Unrestricted), and Mike Dunleavy (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: Having all three main guards in varying levels of free agency puts the Bucks in a strange situation. They have the ability to match with Brandon Jennings, but have to deal with a pure open market for both JJ Redick and Monta Ellis assuming the latter opts out.

I fully expect Jennings to either get a big offer or even sign the one-year tender and have zero idea whether Milwaukee would match even a near-max offer sheet. While Jennings clearly has plenty of talent, it feels like a hard argument to make that he can be the best player on a team that can advance at least one round in the playoffs. Jennings can be a key part of a great team, but likely not as the primary building block. Similarly, Redick and Ellis profile perfectly as players who will get overpaid if money is their primary objective in free agency. I could easily see Redick taking less to go to the right place and Ellis needs to go to an organization that values him and makes sense for his skills long-term. Since we do not know what either wants in their next destination, it feels like a shot in the dark to predict where they end up.

Beyond the guards, I love the core of Sanders, Ilyasova, and Henson particularly considering they all have at least one more season on their current deal. The looming extension for Most Improved candidate SANDERS! puts Milwaukee in a strange situation in terms of future cap space since he will get a meaningful pay raise and there are so many other unknowns in the franchise.

Boston Celtics

The Big Questions:

- How much longer does Kevin Garnett want to play?

- Will we see a full strength Jared Sullinger for most of 2013-14?

- Can Fab Melo become a rotation player for next season?

Notable Free Agents: None

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (traded 2nd Rounder to Portland)

The Lay of the Land: With so much money committed to their existing roster, Boston would have to make trades in order to look substantially different next season. The addition of Rajon Rondo at some point will give their depth a boost but the biggest lingering question is how much longer Garnett wants to play. While we have the same question about Paul Pierce, it would be awfully hard for this team to make much noise without Garnett until they get a talent infusion because of how their talent is structured.

Fortunately, Boston has a compelling group of young-ish players that can make this team much deeper if they are healthy and improve. Players like Fab Melo and Jared Sullinger can combine with Jordan Crawford and Avery Bradley to make teams sweat and give the elder statesmen some much-needed support. We will just have to see if they can deliver, especially before Rondo returns.

Atlanta Hawks

The Big Questions:

- Can they figure out a way to get Dwight Howard?

- Should they give Josh Smith the contract some team will be dumb enough to offer him?

- Will Jeff Teague get a surprising offer from Atlanta or anyone else?

Notable Free Agents: Josh Smith (Unrestricted), Jeff Teague (Restricted), Ivan Johnson (Unrestricted), Devin Harris (Unrestricted), Kyle Korver (Unrestricted), and Zaza Pachulia (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder, Houston’s 1st Rounder, Own 2nd Rounder, Houston’s 2nd Rounder

The Lay of the Land: Despite having Al Horford and Louis Williams on the books long-term, Atlanta may have the potential for the most major turnover in the entire league. Even though Dwight Howard did not look like himself this year and we have to have some trepidation that the new normal for him will be lower than it was before his back injury, he would be a franchise-changing addition. Assuming he ends up elsewhere, the Hawks have tough decisions with both Josh Smith and Jeff Teague. Each has talent and can be a nice player on a good team but could also be offered far too much to make them worth keeping. Since Horford is a good player on a fair contract, Atlanta can be patient if the market gets too crazy on their free agents.

Atlanta did a nice job playing the RFA market to get Josh Smith on his current deal, but it feels unlikely that they will be able to repeat that success with Teague. Utah in particular could end up with cap space and a glaring need at the position that Jeff can use to leverage a nice offer. On Smoove, we just have to find out if any team is dumb enough to offer him the money he wants.

Brooklyn Nets

The Big Questions:

- Can they find a taker for Kris Humphries’ soon to be expiring contract?

- Will Andray Blatche take a pay cut to stay in Brooklyn?

- Will CJ Watson pick up his player option?

Notable Free Agents: Andray Blatche (Unrestricted) and CJ Watson (Player Option)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (own 2nd Rounder traded to Minnesota)

The Lay of the Land: With the huge amount of money the Nets spent last offseaosn to build their team, this one will be one built on smaller moves that could still have a major effect on the team’s ceiling. Even though Kris Humphries is overpaid and plays a non-pivotal position, we could see a team take him to shed a longer-term deal because of the quality free agent class in 2014 or the huge luxury tax consequences of the repeater tax. Assuming Prokorov is willing to foot the huge bill, adding another starter to this team would be a gigantic boon for their potential to be a factor in the East for years to come.

On the depth side, both CJ Watson and Andray Blatche played last season on minimum salaries and have a chance to get paid more elsewhere. While the team has Tyshawn Taylor as a potential Watson replacement, no one stands out as a good fit to get Blatche’s role should he head for greener pastures. His statements seem to indicate a willingness to stick it out with Brooklyn, but we will have to see if that turns out to be the case when the money is on the table.

Houston Rockets

The Big Questions:

- Can they get another max talent to join the team?

- If not, do they keep their cap space for 2014 or improve the team now?

- Even without getting a better talent at the position, would the team move Jeremy Lin for a reasonable offer?

Notable Free Agents: Francisco Garcia (Team Option)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Phoenix’s 2nd Rounder (Own 1st and 2nd Rounders held by Atlanta)

The Lay of the Land: Houston has 15 players under contract for next season and still has plenty of cap space to make a major impact. Furthermore, each and every player they have signed presently has a contract that makes them more of an asset than a liability. That kind of flexibility means Daryl Morey could make some unbalanced trades in terms of salary, talent or both. Unfortunately, the five dimes for a dollar trades are some of the hardest to make in the entire league because the exchange rate for elite talent is often much higher than that.

On top of everything else, the Rockets' front office can elect to roll over their money to next summer by either standing largely pat or by using their space to pick up assets from teams looking to get under the cap or tax for next year. With so many resources and an insane amount of flexibility, now should be the time for Houston to move up a few notches in the Western Conference pecking order.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Big Questions:

- Will Dwight Howard re-sign?

- Will Metta World Peace take a pay cut to stay on the team?

- Can they retain Earl Clark?

Notable Free Agents: Dwight Howard (Unrestricted), Earl Clark (Unrestricted), Devin Ebanks (Unrestricted), Metta World Peace (Player Option), and Darius Morris (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 2nd Rounder (own 1st Rounder held by Cleveland)

The Lay of the Land: Dwight Howard and the uncertainty that constantly surrounds him like Pigpen on Peanuts has another chance to choose his home for the next few seasons. While the Lakers are the best option financially and promotionally, the age and inflexibility of the Lake Show could make him consider other options or even the maddening possibility of a one-year deal to become part of the 2014 free agent class. Without any insight into his decision-making process, I know better than to speculate on what Dwight will do.

Contrary to what some members of the media have written or said recently, all amnesty decisions for the 2013 offseason must be made in the first week after the end of the July moratorium. That means the Lakers' brass will not have enough time to know about Kobe Bryant’s status for next season with any meaningful clarity.

With that in mind, the only other reasonable option for the amnesty provision is Metta World Peace. While that makes sense because of the luxury tax burden on top of his salary, I could see the Lakers telling World Peace that picking up his player option means the end of his time with the Lakers due to the potential amnesty and indicating that the only way he sticks with the team would be to take a pay cut but a longer deal. I have no idea if he would take that or roll the dice on the amnesty waiver process (where a return to Houston would be a possibility) so that stands out as another unanswerable question. 

Los Angeles Clippers

The Big Questions:

- Will Chris Paul stay with the Clippers?

- Is there any chance we see CP3 take a one-year deal?

- Will Chauncey Billups return for another run with the team?

Notable Free Agents: Chris Paul (Unrestricted), Chauncey Billups (Unrestricted), Lamar Odom (Unrestricted), Matt Barnes (Unrestricted), Ronny Turiaf (Unrestricted), and Ryan Hollins (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (own 2nd Rounder held by Detroit)

The Lay of the Land: No single decision affects the future of a franchise more than Chris Paul’s. As the best player to ever play for the organization and a key recruiter of their potent depth, losing Paul would decimate the team until Donald Sterling sells. After Paul makes his choice, the team will have a chance to figure out what they want to do with Eric Bledsoe. He could be a key piece on a deep run next season, but the Clippers will not have the financial flexibility to retain both Bledsoe and Paul. The trade market would contain many suitors though I am sure they will try to use the fact that the team cannot retain both as leverage to lower the asking price.

Beyond those two, the Clippers actually have most of their key players locked up for next season. The only main cogs of A Tribe Called Bench up in the air are Matt Barnes, Lamar Odom and Chauncey Billups. Each would be nice to retain but also are replaceable as long as CP3 stays in town. I fully expect Lamar Odom to re-sign considering the rough go he had the last time he left Los Angeles.

Denver Nuggets

The Big Questions:

- What does Andre Iguodala want long-term? Will he opt out?

- Will Denver retain Corey Brewer or fill his niche with one of their young players?

- Do the Nuggets want to combine any assets to build a smaller, stronger core?

Notable Free Agents: Andre Iguodala (Player Option), Corey Brewer (Unrestricted), and Timofey Mozgov (Unrestricted)

2013 Draft Picks Held: Own 1st Rounder (own 2nd Rounder held by Phoenix)

The Lay of the Land: After the devastating series loss to Golden State, there will be plenty of pressure for the Nuggets to make bigger structural moves if possible. Thanks to the contracts inked with JaVale McGee and Ty Lawson in 2012, Denver does not have a ton of long-term cap space even if Andre Iguodala opts out and heads elsewhere. Iguodala still stands as a key piece since his perimeter defense can really help this team while they do not always need big offensive nights from him in order to win. Thankfully for the Nuggets, McGee, Lawson, Koufos, Gallinari, Chandler, Miller, Fournier and Faried are all signed for at least two more seasons so they will be a deep and potent team for years to come. However, that depth could also be used to try and add a higher level player who can make Denver a more dangerous team in crunch time and the playoffs. Since that likely would come in a trade, we will have to wait and see what the market would be for players like Wilson Chandler and Evan Fournier.

Where The Lakers Go From Here

On Sunday, in his first game without Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard had 26 points, 17 rebounds and 3 blocks on 9-15 shooting. With the Los Angeles Lakers needing a win over the Spurs to stay alive in the playoff race, Howard outdueled Tim Duncan in the type of one-on-one post battle rarely seen in the modern NBA. He didn’t have quite the lift or mobility of his days with the Orlando Magic, but it was closer to what most expected when he came to Los Angeles. Given the inconsistent way Howard and the Lakers have played, it’s hard to know what to expect from them on Wednesday, when they could be in another win or go home scenario. Nevertheless, no matter what happens, there’s room for optimism for a team with a 6’11+ center capable of a 26/17 game.

Unless something dramatic happens in the final week of the regular season, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. If the Lakers make the playoffs, it’s hard to see them making much noise against Oklahoma City, even if they had Bryant. Ignore the vast differences in record and point differential and the matchups are still terrible. Oklahoma City has two 6’10+ post players capable of banging with Howard and Pau Gasol and a 6’7+ perimeter stopper (Thabo Sefolosha) who would have made Kobe work for his points. On the other side of the ball, the Lakers don’t have the perimeter speed to bother Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook. Sending Steve Blake or a hobbled Steve Nash out to face Westbrook is like feeding a Christian to the lions.

Looking back now, the preseason expectations for the Lakers seem a bit foolish. They were an extremely top-heavy team with little depth and no continuity. Howard, coming off major back surgery, was the only one of their starting five in his twenties. With so much age on the floor, the Lakers needed a still hobbled Howard to be Superman, at least on the defensive end. Maybe things would have been different if everyone had been healthy, but it shouldn’t have been a huge surprise that Kobe (34), Nash (38), Gasol (32) and Metta World Peace (33) all missed significant time, especially considering how many minutes they had to play. It’s no coincidence the Knicks, the oldest team in the NBA, were also rocked with injuries.

But while the injuries to their top players may have been unavoidable, their lack of depth wasn’t. The Lakers team speed on the perimeter has been a glaring issue for three years, since Jason Terry and J.J. Barea steamrolled them out of the playoffs in 2011. Strangely enough, a franchise that had no problem racking up a $100 million payroll began pinching pennies when it came to upgrading the back end of their rotation. Chris Duhon and Steve Blake were solid pros in their day, but there’s no excuse for carrying two guards in their 30’s with PER’s under 12. Mitch Kupchak could have found better role-playing perimeter players in Europe, the D-League or under a couch cushion.

Regardless of what happens to their star players this offseason, upgrading their bench should be a priority. With so many offensive weapons already in place and a stable of competent big men, all the Lakers need are a “3-and-D” players at PG, SG and SF. Even without a first-round pick, they shouldn’t be too hard to find. After all, L.A. could have had Patrick Beverley, Alan Anderson and Chris Copeland for nothing at various points in the last two years. The talent pool for professional basketball players worldwide is at an all-time high; there are a number of players in Europe who could help the Lakers right now. Ignoring them in favor of aging veterans with NBA experience is akin to a starving man not picking up a $100 bill lying on the ground.

Of course, the first priority will be re-signing Howard to a max contract. While several other teams could make a run for him, it’s hard to imagine him leaving the Lakers. Star players rarely leave the biggest stage in their sport, whether it’s the Lakers, the New York Yankees or the Dallas Cowboys. If Howard went to Dallas or Atlanta, he’d be taking less money to play for a worse team in a smaller market. His reputation has taken a tremendous hit in the last two seasons, but he’s already reached rock bottom in L.A. If he wins a championship all will be forgiven and there’s no better place to do it than with the Lakers.

Re-signing Howard would push their payroll north of $90 million, which is why talk of amnestying Kobe Bryant is a red herring. Even without his $30 million salary on the books, the Lakers would still be over the salary cap, so it wouldn’t give them much more flexibility. From a strictly financial perspective, it’s hard to imagine a 35-year old shooting guard coming off an Achilles injury being worth the price the Lakers will pay for him, even if he does come back earlier than expected. It will be up to Jim and Jeanie Buss to determine whether the $80 million they could save in luxury tax penalties will be worth the massive PR hit.

Either way, the Lakers can’t afford to make too many changes in 2013, not with the summer of 2014 right around the corner. Right now, Steve Nash is the only player on the books and he could easily retire after his age-39 season. If they re-sign Howard and don’t take on any long-term salary, L.A. could make a hard push for some combination of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony or Dirk Nowitzki. Kevin Love, who played college basketball at UCLA and may be looking for a new home, could be available as well. The rules are different for a team in Los Angeles, New York or Miami; those are the three markets where clearing out cap space is actually a viable long-term strategy.

The Lakers will have to make some hard decisions on Kobe, Pau and Earl Clark, but they won’t make or break the franchise. No matter who is around him, if Howard can be as dominant as he was in Orlando, L.A. could be a title contender next season. Even if he never fully recovers, which is always a possibility for a guy with 10 NBA seasons under his belt, a 28-year-old center who can average 20/10 and contribute on both sides of the ball is an excellent start to a rebuilding effort. In an increasingly perimeter-oriented league bereft of great centers, Howard is the one player who can stand in LeBron’s way. That’s why, after all the dust clears from an incredibly tumultuous season in L.A., Howard is still the great “known unknown” for both the Lakers and the NBA.

Inability To Establish Pau Gasol Haunts Lakers' Lost Season

MILWAUKEE – Nine games away from the ultimate bust of a season or an inevitable first-round playoff elimination, the Los Angeles Lakers’ defense still straggles along without much urgency. A playoff berth within reach, and Lakers players continue jogging back on defense, listless, and have far too many turnovers and breakdowns in execution to sustain their offense. The closer the Lakers get to the playoffs, the more this season begins to appear like a lost year, and they keep making the game increasingly difficult on themselves.

For as much as injuries have decimated the Lakers, and they’ve been repeated blows, there has been a large failure to establish Pau Gasol within the offense. Here’s a perennial All-Star, a player who doesn’t need to prove his worth after being the second option on two straight championships, and yet touches come and go for Gasol and he’s been in more pick-and-rolls than ever this season.

The Lakers have tried to force-feed Gasol at times since his return last week from a torn plantar fascia, but it has been superficial faith. Gasol has admitted his benching out of Mike D’Antoni earlier in the season affected him, and why should anyone – much less the Lakers – be surprised? With Gasol, his psyche has always been about trust, about the confidence in him from people around the team, and that can’t be faked.

Maybe Gasol came back from the plantar fascia injury too soon, running up and down the court hobbled for stretches of Thursday’s 113-103 loss to the Bucks. The Lakers made a concerted effort to go to Gasol to start the second half and midway through the fourth quarter and it worked efficiently for a bit – Gasol scoring three of the team’s four baskets, including a smooth fadeaway jumper over Ersan Ilyasova, in a third-quarter stretch.

The gameplan to use Gasol’s mismatch on Ilyasova didn’t last, however, and the Lakers soon got back to the careless style that has been damaging for them. Larry Sanders feasted off their weak interior defense all night and was clearly the best big man on the court, dropping 21 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. Yes, on a night when Kobe Bryant had to be crutched out of the Bradley Center, this would have been the game to slow down offensively and utilize Gasol.

“For the most part, it’s good for us to slow games down, especially on back to backs where energy is not very high,” Gasol said late Thursday night. “We need to do whatever it takes to slow the game down to control the game. … Sometimes, we have to go away from Kobe and move the ball to the other side.”

Except the Lakers have essentially had Bryant be their first and second option on most nights. Since Gasol’s return, he and Bryant have spent game stoppages talking to each other, taking their time walking back to the Lakers’ bench to point out what was going so wrong: mostly, careless turnovers by both Bryant (six) and Gasol (four) due to a lack of knowledge about where the other was positioned on offensive possessions.

These aren’t disputes. If there’s anyone who still trusts and pushes Gasol, it’s Bryant. But rather, those two have been trying to formulate plans to resurrect some chemistry they’ve seemed to lose at some point in the past two seasons – when the rise of Andrew Bynum and arrival of Dwight Howard respectively stunted Gasol’s presence within the offense.

“It’s been a long year, there’s no doubt about it,” Gasol said. “Lots of ups and downs.”

As D’Antoni made clear, the Lakers feel they have to come as close to winning out as possible in their last nine games beginning Saturday against the Sacramento Kings. “I don’t think we’re playing with fire, but you could see guys run out of steam, some guys slower,” the coach said. Yet the fact that the Lakers have been decimated by injuries wasn’t out of the realm of possibility when this veteran team was put together.

Coming off the court after playing a post-up session with Robert Sacre on Thursday night, Gasol signed autographs for fans, when one Lakers fan asked him whether the team can move up in the Western Conference. Gasol smiled and sighed, telling the fan he hoped so. Now, the Lakers are barely ahead of the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks for the eighth spot, their health, seed and old faith in Gasol dwindling away.

Big Men Injuries

We may have reached the natural end-point in terms of how big someone can be and stay healthy over the course of an 82-game NBA season. Bynum and Howard will be unrestricted free agents this summer, while Oden will be looking to make a comeback. In choosing a team, their first priority has to be choosing a franchise with a world-class medical staff.

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What made the Lakers so intriguing this offseason was that they were zigging when most of the NBA was zagging. With Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol upfront, they were gambling they had the size to punish teams with small-ball front-courts on the block, making the Mike D'Antoni hire more puzzling.

How GMs Escape Proper Scrutiny

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The Reality Of Point Guard Defense

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2013 Amnesty Primer

As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0,” we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time.

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Current Players Below The JoJo White Threshold

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Andrew Bynum Unleashed

Andrew Bynum instantly makes the 76ers relevant, and with a team built around him, he’s a darkhorse contender for the 12-13 MVP Award. Furthermore, they may be the only real threat the Heat will face as they will be unable to play their new-age- small-ball frontcourt against Bynum.

How Dwight Howard Instantly Improves The Lakers

The new-look Lakers are the team best equipped to copy the Mavericks formula of 2011. The Heat were beaten by a group better than the sum of their parts; what happens when those parts are Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard?

Grading The Deal: Dwight To Lakers In Most Important NBA Trade In Over 30 Years

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2012-13 NBA Power Rankings

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The Dwight Trade Orlando Needs To Seek

In dealing Dwight Howard, the Orlando Magic should look for a package similar to the one David Stern got the New Orleans Hornets for Chris Paul: a star-caliber talent, a high draft pick and no long-term salary obligations.

Grading The Deal: Steve Nash To The Lakers

The impact of Steve Nash on the Lakers will be enormous, in terms of title contention, Kobe's pursuit of the all-time scoring title and also what happens with Dwight Howard.

Great Drafts, Bad Drafts And All Drafts In-Between

Whle the Pistons, Blazers, Bobcats, Nets, Thunder and Bulls headline the 'Great Drafts', the caboose of 'Bad Drafts' is comprised of the Cavaliers, Suns, Bucks, Wolves, Heat and Knicks.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 4.0 (Draft-Day Edition)

The Andre Drummond/Perry Jones effect on this draft before we make sense of picks seven through 30 just hours before a flood of draft-day trades shreds every mock.

2012 NBA Mock Draft, Version 3.0

The 2012 NBA Draft is a week away and nothing is certain beyond Anthony Davis going to the Hornets with the first overall pick even though several scenarios are beginning to crystalize.

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