Apr 17, 2014 8:08 PM EDT
In a society where patience has gone out the window and only instant gratification matters, the poor play of the 2013 rookie class has many ready to write them off entirely. But while there isn’t an Anthony Davis in the bunch, this year’s draft had plenty of good young players who, for a variety of reasons, were not ready to make an immediate impact in the NBA. With so many freshman and sophomores taken in the lottery, the draft is a long-term project anyway.
If you look at this year’s lottery as a whole, one thing stands out. If a team is good enough to contend for a playoff spot, it’s hard for a rookie to get minutes. If a team is bad enough to where they can afford to give rookie a bunch of minutes, he will be putting up inefficient numbers on a bad team. From a statistical perspective, it’s hard for a rookie to be impressive in either situation. Chalk it up as a learning experience for all these guys.
1) Anthony Bennett: Pretty much nothing has gone right for Bennett since he was the surprise No. 1 pick last June. The GM who drafted him has already been fired, while shoulder surgery in the offseason caused him to show up to training camp out of shape. It was hard for him to find minutes on a Cleveland team that thought it was contending for the playoffs, and when he got on the floor, he didn’t do much besides hoist up a lot of shots and play abysmal defense.
The first thing he needs to do is get in better shape, since there aren’t many 6’8 260 forwards in the NBA. He has the talent - in college, he showed a rare combination of explosiveness, ball-handling and shooting ability for a 6’8 guy. The biggest challenge for him is learning how to impact the game without having the ball in his hands. The Cavs guards aren’t moving the ball too much - if you are going to score, you had better rebound, run the floor and move off the ball.
2) Victor Oladipo: Oladipo had a solid rookie season for a Magic team that had nothing but time to develop him. Going forward, the question is whether they commit to developing him as a PG or move him off the ball. While he has the length and athleticism to swing between both guard positions, he averaged only 4.1 assists on 3.2 turnovers as a rookie, an indication of a player not comfortable creating offense for others. Who they draft with their two lottery picks in 2014 will say a lot.
3) Otto Porter: Like Bennett, Porter hit the trifecta for a rough rookie season. He was drafted to a team with playoff aspirations, he had multiple veterans ahead of him on the depth chart and he got injured in training camp. He essentially took a redshirt season as a rookie, which isn’t the worst thing for a 20-year old who needs to put some weight on his frame. Porter has plenty of skill, the question is whether there will be minutes and touches for him in Washington next season.
4) Cody Zeller: The unexpected emergence of Josh McRoberts consigned Zeller to a small role as a rookie, playing 17 minutes a game behind McRoberts and Al Jefferson upfront. Like most rookie big men, Zeller needs to put on weight in the off-season in order to survive in the NBA paint. His 73 percent mark from the free-throw line is a good sign - he needs to be an outside-in 7’0 who plays in the high post and uses the threat of the perimeter jumper to open up the drive.
5) Alex Len: Like a lot of the guys in this year’s draft, Len was the victim of his NBA team exceeding expectations as a rookie. Instead of playing for draft position, the Suns ended up in playoff contention until the last week of the season, leaving little time to develop a raw 20-year-old lottery pick. Len is big (7’1 255), athletic and reasonably skilled and he’s five years younger than Miles Plumlee, which tells you how patient you need to be with young centers.
6) Nerlens Noel: After tearing his ACL toward the end of his freshman season at Kentucky, Noel was never going to have a big rookie season in the NBA. The Philadelphia 76ers took him as a long-term project and kept him off the floor the entire season. Noel showed plenty of promise at Kentucky, but he was also incredibly skinny as well as very raw on the offense. Larry Sanders didn’t start turning the corner in the NBA until he was 24 and Noel is still only 20.
7) Ben McLemore: McLemore wasn’t in Kansas anymore as a rookie, as he went from a featured role in Bill Self’s offense to scraping for shots next to Isaiah Thomas, Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins. He’s got the stroke and athleticism to be an excellent SG in the NBA, but he has a long way to go in terms of shot selection and not too many guys to learn from in Sacramento. Going forward, he needs to focus on defense and moving the ball and the shots will come (hopefully).
8) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Caldwell-Pope got plenty of opportunities in the dumpster fire that was the Pistons season, but he didn’t do all that much with them. With Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith clogging up the paint, Caldwell-Pope had to serve as one of their main floor spacers and he shot only 30 percent from three-point territory. Like the rest of the Pistons, he would benefit from unwinding the logjam upfront and playing with more shooters around him.
9) Trey Burke: Burke broke his finger in the preseason and by the time he returned to the lineup, the Jazz season was essentially over. No rookie in this year’s class walked into more responsibility than Burke, who played 32 minutes a night in Utah and had the ball in his hands most of the time. He made the players around him better - averaging 5.6 assists on 1.9 turnovers as a rookie - he just needs more help on the offensive end from whoever Utah drafts this season.
10) CJ McCollum: Another lottery pick whose rookie season was short-circuited before it got a chance to get going. Damian Lillard and Mo Williams do everything McCollum does but better and the Trail Blazers were contending for a homecourt advantage in the playoffs for most of the season. Williams is likely gone in the off-season, but with Lillard entrenched in Portland, the question is whether McCollum is going to play next to him or be his backup.
11) Michael Carter-Williams: One of the real surprises of this year’s rookie class, Carter-Williams had the 76ers flirting with respectability in the first few months of the season. Once they dumped Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner, leaving Thaddeus Young as the only proven NBA player in the rotation, things got real bad real quickly. No rookie was going to fix that mess and a 6’6 PG with his athleticism and floor vision has a bright future ahead of him.
12) Steven Adams: The Thunder drafted the 20-year-old Adams as a project, so the respectable numbers he gave them as a backup center were a pleasant surprise. He’s a genuinely massive human being with excellent athleticism who isn’t asked to do much on the offensive end. Of course, it also helps to be replacing Kendrick Perkins. Oklahoma City is a notoriously patient franchise - they are probably grooming Adams to be the starter when Perkins contract is up in 2015.
13) Kelly Olynyk: After a dominant showing in Summer League, Olynyk was hit with a taste of reality in the NBA. While he put up good offensive numbers and he rebounded the ball well coming off the bench, he was never really in contention for ROY. The question is how he fits with Jared Sullinger upfront - does Boston need two offensive-minded big men who can’t move their feet on defense? There may not be minutes for them both long-term.
14) Shabazz Muhammad - Like fellow rookie Gorgui Dieng, Muhammad spent most of his first season with the Timberwolves from the bench watching the playoff push. In the limited minutes he did get, Muhammad showed one thing did translate from his UCLA days - this is a guy who knows how to get his FGA’s. Per-36 minutes, he took 17 FGA’s and made them at a 46 percent clip. Muhammad may never be a great defender, but he’ll be getting buckets off the bench for a long time.
Mar 17, 2014 4:29 PM EDT
While RealGM has an excellent database of the draft picks that have been traded between teams, I wanted to put together a summary more focused on the upcoming draft. For the sake of clarity, this version will only deal with the first round.
Atlanta Hawks- Have the right to swap their own pick with Brooklyn’s. At this point, it appears Atlanta will just keep their own and move on.
Boston Celtics- Have their own first and the less favorable of Atlanta and Brooklyn, likely Brooklyn right now. They have a future first from the Sixers as well, but it only goes this year if Philadelphia makes the playoffs. We all know that will not happen.
Brooklyn Nets- No matter what, they lose their pick without getting one in return.
Charlotte Bobcats- Their own first goes to Chicago as long as the Bobcats stay remotely on track (top-10 protected) but they pick up Portland’s unless the Blazers effectively lose out. The lingering question is Detroit- if the pick is 1-8, the Pistons keep it but if it’s 9th or worse it goes to Charlotte. My gut feeling is that once Detroit knows they will not make the playoffs we will see a push to the bottom reminiscent of the 2012 Warriors.
Chicago Bulls- Have their own pick and Charlotte’s unless the Bobcats collapse. The Sacramento pick they acquired in the Luol Deng trade is top-12 protected so it will not come this year.
Cleveland Cavaliers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Dallas Mavericks- One of the more interesting situations in the league. By having top-20 protection on their pick (it goes to Oklahoma City if it falls 21-30 this year), the Mavs could lose their pick if they make the playoffs. Right now, the bottom seeds in the West look to be about even with the 3-4 spots in the East, so it could go either way.
Denver Nuggets- They keep the better of their pick and New York’s, sending the worse one to Orlando.
Detroit Pistons- Keep their pick if it is eighth or better, otherwise it goes to Charlotte. I fully expect them to understand the incentives and lose enough to retain it.
Golden State Warriors- Their first goes to Utah no matter what.
Houston Rockets- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Indiana Pacers- Their pick is going to Phoenix as a part of the Luis Scola trade from last summer.
Los Angeles Clippers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Los Angeles Lakers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Memphis Grizzlies- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Miami Heat- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Milwaukee Bucks- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Minnesota Timberwolves- The pick is top-13 protected, meaning they have to make the postseason or have the best record of any non-playoff team to send it to Phoenix. At this point, it looks like the pick will be No. 13 and thus the Wolves will keep it.
New Orleans Pelicans- Their pick goes to Philadelphia unless it lands in the top-five. It will be hard for the Pelicans to jump enough of the teams “ahead” of them, but they still have a shot of jumping them in the lottery itself.
New York Knicks- They lose their pick no matter what, though the destination could change.
Oklahoma City Thunder- They have their own pick and get Dallas’ first if it ends up between 21 and 30, certainly a possibility.
Orlando Magic- Retain their own pick and get the less favorable of Denver and New York’s selections. This could end up swinging on whether the Knicks can make the playoffs- if they do, the pick falls a few spots to No. 15.
Philadelphia 76ers- They keep their own pick as long as they miss the playoffs (just a formality at this point) and pick up one from New Orleans as long as it falls outside the top five.
Phoenix Suns- They have their own pick and Indiana’s on lock and appear likely to pick up Washington’s since the Wizards should make the playoffs. Minnesota’s pick has top-13 protection, so I expect the Suns to only end up with three this year.
Portland Trail Blazers- Their pick is going to Charlotte unless the Blazers have a truly epic collapse.
Sacramento Kings- Their pick has top-12 protection, so the Kings look like they will keep it even if they rattle off some late-season wins.
San Antonio Spurs- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Toronto Raptors- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Utah Jazz- They have both their own pick and Golden State’s.
Washington Wizards- They will send their pick to Phoenix barring a major letdown.
Feb 03, 2014 1:08 PM EST
Before an unprecedented eight-month return from surgery for a torn left anterior cruciate ligament and into a professional basketball game, Leandro Barbosa remembers sitting in the Boston locker room reeling with devastation, wondering how his body could betray him when those Celtics needed him so desperately without Rajon Rondo.
First major injury of his career, rigorous rehabilitation awaited, and Barbosa asked himself over and over those hours, those days after trainers disclosed his fate: Will I ever make it back to playing basketball – let alone in the NBA – from this?
“I did have doubts,” Barbosa, 31, told RealGM. “Many times. Many times. It was frustrating, and tough too. Rehab is a slow process, and you’ve got to be patient. It was tough for me because I wanted to play, and I couldn’t.”
Barbosa had torn his ACL last February, a staggering blow to a player who had finally begun to find a standing within his new team’s rotation. Adjusting to the Celtics’ schemes took time, but everyone noticed him gathering momentum in an increased role.
Forty points in three games, three consecutive Boston wins, and suddenly, the season ended for Barbosa in Charlotte three games later, the Celtics dumped his salary as part of a trade with the Washington Wizards, and an unrelenting career was placed on hold.
People around Barbosa had remained in his ear, and they stressed one aspect over all else: Stay patient. Barbosa was always known as persistent and constant on the court and energetic away from it. He knew escaping the NBA’s tantalizing product, escaping all its free agency noise, would allow a flourishing recovery, and so he went home to Brazil for the summer.
Five months into Barbosa’s rehab, the shooting, the cutting, already started, and it was only a matter of another month until he regained the most natural of moves. As superstar players applied supreme caution healing from significant knee surgeries, Barbosa was steadfast and sought an unconventional technique – training with Brazilian soccer players, consuming their conditioning exercises.
In his mind, Barbosa believed his knee had been fit to sign in the NBA prior to the season. Problem was no one else believed, too. Teams were unsure, and they wanted to test the legitimacy of this uncanny recuperation.
So Barbosa understood, joined a Brazilian club in November for exposure, and averaged 21 points and shot 48 percent to affirm everyone his knee checked out healthy.
“The Brazil people did a great job and they made a good team for my rehab,” Barbosa says. “The league in Brazil helped me out to lose the scare too. The guys I was working with, they worked really well in my head. They said everything was going to be all right. They calmed me. They did a great job.
“And finally, I was back playing basketball.”
When he looks back, Barbosa recollects his first few steps in the gym after receiving clearance from his doctor. No padding, no ancillary body equipment to protect that knee.
“When the doctor said, ‘You can go and play,’ I just went no brace,” Barbosa says. “When you put a brace, you feel insecure, and that’s not good.”
Nothing changed once he returned to the Phoenix Suns in January, signing for the entire season after two 10-day contracts expired. He’s no longer a Sixth Man of the Year and still lacks sharpness in his jump shot, but the “Blur” hasn’t lost his speed, nor his fluidity for the sport.
Barbosa knows the Suns weren’t always interested in partnering again, and the Los Angeles Clippers and Chicago Bulls had long shown the most intrigue of all, but injury to Eric Bledsoe opened an old door and made the choice simple. Even still, Barbosa is a fan favorite in Phoenix, a remembrance to those run-and-gun contending teams with Mike D’Antoni and Steve Nash and Amar’e Stoudemire.
“Phoenix was the best idea for me,” Barbosa says. “I know the fans love me, and I love the fans. Great city, great organization. The Suns have a good team of rehab, so I thought it was going to be a great opportunity for me, especially for my knee. They’ve been taking care of me well.”
The season had finally been coming together for Barbosa a year ago, a turn of the corner into becoming the lively scorer he’d been everywhere. Except what awaited him was a buckled knee, a season lost, and surgery last March. Out of nowhere, he was in a pro regular season contest eight months later, harmonizing his game and body for the NBA.
Out of his own doubts, Leandro Barbosa is back.
Jan 31, 2014
With tremendous earning potential in the offseason, Eric Bledsoe could very well be motivated by returning as soon as the removal surgery permits, by proving his worth before free agency. No matter: The Suns believe in Bledsoe, and the front office has made clear it will match any offer someone could give him in July.
Oct 29, 2013
The goal here is look at overall long-term value of players by considering age, contract, positional scarcity and of course overall quality, without factors like a player’s connection with a franchise or fit within a specific system.
Oct 21, 2013
While the Western Conference has six teams (Clippers, Thunder, Rockets, Grizzlies, Warriors) in its first tier, the Eastern Conference is a tier of one (Heat) with the Bulls, Pacers and Nets vying for the second tier.
Aug 01, 2013
The treadmill is somehow both more and less common than some might think. While teams tend to fall within the 30-49 win range, as would be expected in such a competitive league, the dreaded never-ending stream of late lottery picks is uncommon.
Jul 27, 2013
Adding Luis Scola to a team that expects to compete for an NBA title over the next few seasons is a nice move, but it becomes even better when you consider the price the Pacers paid for him.
Jul 03, 2013
While it’s far too soon to draw any conclusions about Ryan McDonough, the early returns are very good. For the first time in a very long while, there’s reason for optimism surrounding the Suns.
Jun 27, 2013
Draft day has finally arrived and while everyone pines for the 2014 class already, this one has the chance to be sneaky good in the 'many quality starters' variety.
Jun 26, 2013
In this mock, we include the PER of each player based on the quality of opponent. Even statistics in this context can only go so far, but helps move beyond the possibility of inflation against competition that isn't even close to being NBA caliber.
Jun 23, 2013
Entering draft week in a draft universally labeled as weak preceding the best draft of the decade, few people are talking themselves into falling in love with any specific player as fervently as usual.
Jun 03, 2013
Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams, Rudy Gobert, Otto Porter and Alex Len join Nerlens Noel at the top of our draft board.
Apr 19, 2013
Two playoff teams from a season ago (Mavericks, Jazz) joined repeat lottery clubs such as the Suns, Hornets/Pelicans, Blazers, Wolves and Kings.
Apr 11, 2013
There was only so long Mavericks and Suns could paper over their inability to find and develop young talent. This season, those chickens have come home to roost. With the importance of the draft magnified by the new CBA, both teams have to turn some draft picks into home runs.
Feb 20, 2013
The Rockets were expecting a quiet deadline, but then got the festivities started by acquiring Thomas Robinson in a six-player deal and clearing Marcus Morris for a second round pick.
Jan 27, 2013
We may have reached the natural end-point in terms of how big someone can be and stay healthy over the course of an 82-game NBA season. Bynum and Howard will be unrestricted free agents this summer, while Oden will be looking to make a comeback. In choosing a team, their first priority has to be choosing a franchise with a world-class medical staff.
Jan 17, 2013
What made the Lakers so intriguing this offseason was that they were zigging when most of the NBA was zagging. With Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol upfront, they were gambling they had the size to punish teams with small-ball front-courts on the block, making the Mike D'Antoni hire more puzzling.
Dec 12, 2012
As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0,” we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time.
Oct 09, 2012
While the Lakers and Clippers have title aspirations, the Warriors, Kings and Suns have many issues to resolve before they join their Los Angeles rivals in relevance.
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