Voting for Coach of the Year can be extremely tricky. In the last decade, Mike D’Antoni, Avery Johnson and Mike Brown have been fired twice since winning the award. Since the NBA is ultimately a player’s game, much of a coach’s fate is out of his own hands. At the same time, the media tends to reward the coach of a team that exceeds expectations, even when it’s more the result of a superstar carrying an entire franchise (Brown in Cleveland) or a natural step in the progression of a young team (Scott Brooks with the Oklahoma City Thunder). This season, a number of coaches have done excellent work, but as usual, few can compare with the job Gregg Popovich has done with the San Antonio Spurs.

Popovich, who won the award in 2003 and 2012, is the longest-tenured coach in the NBA. Since taking over the Spurs in 1997, he’s never won fewer than 53 games in a full season. That success starts with Tim Duncan, but it’s not easy to reshuffle a roster around an elite player that many times, especially when you never have the benefit of another high draft pick. As the coach of a small-market team who can’t afford to spend money in free agency, Popovich has learned to play for the present while still keeping an eye on the future. There’s no one better at it, which is why San Antonio has remained a championship contender long after their window should have closed.

The Spurs' gaudy win percentages have remained constant, but the 2013 edition is their best team since 2007. With Duncan aging, San Antonio’s defense slipped steadily in the years following their last championship, culminating in their collapse against the Thunder in the 2012 Western Conference Finals. This season, the emergence of Tiago Splitter and Kawhi Leonard has given them badly needed length and athleticism in their front-court. As a result, their team defensive rating has improved from 10th in 2012 to 3rd in 2013. Their size gives them at least a puncher’s chance against Miami or Oklahoma City in a seven-game playoff series, since both prefer to spread the floor with only one big man.

And while a lot of coaches could integrate Leonard and Splitter into their rotation, few would have had the patience to develop them over such a long period of time. They are the endpoints of a process that began all the way back in 2007. In that year’s draft, San Antonio selected Splitter at No. 28, even though he wouldn’t come over from Europe for another three seasons. Leonard, meanwhile, is exactly the type of skilled and athletic two-way front-court player the Spurs should have been too picking low to acquire. The only reason they could move up to No. 15 in 2011 and select him is that they had done such a good job of developing George Hill, the No. 26 pick in 2008.

San Antonio valued the back end of the draft way before it was the cool thing to do. Even though Hill was somewhat of a project as a 6’2 combo guard coming out of a mid-major school like IUPUI, Popovich thrust him into the fire as a rookie. Over the next three seasons, as his shooting and decision-making improved, Hill became when one of the best backup PG’s in the NBA. So when Indiana was looking for a starting PG to round out their team in in 2011, the Spurs had one ready for them. That’s where Popovich’s ability to see the long-term makes him a great coach: he has a better player in 2013 because he was willing to take the lumps from 2008-2012.

Once he got Leonard, Popovich wasn’t afraid to put him on the floor immediately. That’s an unusual move for a coach in his position. Brooks, in comparison, has stubbornly stuck with Derek Fisher over the last two seasons, even though he hasn’t been a useful NBA player in many years. Logically, a coach willing to roll the dice on a one-dimensional 38-year-old 6’2 shooting guard should be willing to play Jeremy Lamb, the No. 12 pick in 2012. Leonard wasn’t any more ready for the NBA than Lamb; he just had a coach who could identify talent and knew how to get the best out of every player given to him. Leonard was a 25% three-point shooter in college whose become a marksmen (38%) from the deeper NBA line. That rarely happens.

More than any other coach in the NBA, Popovich isn’t wedded to a player’s reputation. Michael Finley, a two-time All-Star, started the 2010 season as the Spurs SG. However, it quickly became clear that he had hit the age-35 wall and Popovich turned to Hill, only in his second season. If Finley had played for the Thunder, Brooks would probably still have him around for his veteran leadership. In contrast, if Popovich coached in Oklahoma City, he would almost certainly play Reggie Jackson a lot more minutes. The same goes for Eric Bledsoe with the Clippers. Not only is it the obvious thing to do from a strategic perspective, it makes them more valuable assets on the trade market.

This season, Popovich has cut the minutes of accomplished veterans like Manu Ginobili, Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw in order to get younger players on the floor. Unlike Vinny Del Negro or Brooks, who often cite “chemistry” as why they can’t make changes to their starting lineup, Popovich is proactively searching for the most effective combinations to put on the floor. You can’t be afraid to hurt guys feelings if you want to win. Popovich started DeJuan Blair for most of two seasons and he’s not even in the rotation anymore. Compare that to how Brooks has leaned on Kendrick Perkins regardless of what the statistics and the eyeball test are telling him.

All of this is possible because Popovich has had the luxury of installing a system over an incredibly long period of time. The Spurs have more continuity than any other team in the NBA, which allows their front office to identify players who could fit specific roles in Popovich’s system. In effect, the great job he’s done coaching from 1997-2012 has made his job in 2013 that much easier. His effect on the roster has compounded over time, which is why it’s nearly impossible for any of his peers to match the job he has done in San Antonio. He’s on the level of a Coach K or a Jim Boeheim in terms of his impact on his franchise, an almost impossible feat for an NBA coach.

By the end of the 120-112 beating they gave the Thunder in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, the San Antonio Spurs looked like the best team in the NBA. While most of the league struggled with injuries and inconsistency following the lockout, San Antonio rolled to their 13th consecutive 50-win regular season despite playing in only 66 games. They took it to another level in the playoffs, ruthlessly dispatching the Jazz and the Clippers before getting out to a 2-0 lead over the Thunder. Oklahoma City had gone 8-1 through the first two rounds, but they seemed to have no answer for the free-flowing ball movement of the Spurs offense, ranked No. 1 in the league.

Then, in a little over a week, it was over. Instead of winning their fifth title in the Tim Duncan era, they were wiped out of the playoffs in the next four games. In Game 4 of the WCF, the Thunder scored 109 points and shot 54% from the field. In Game 5, 108 points on 50% shooting. In Game 6, 107 points on 50% shooting. San Antonio was only a few stops from reaching the NBA Finals and they could not get them. They have continued winning regular-season games with metronome-like consistency in 2013, but they are a different and much better team this season. The Spurs are playing defense again.

The Spurs' defensive collapse last year shouldn’t have come as a surprise. Despite their reputation as a defensive juggernaut, they had quietly remade themselves into a finesse, offensive-minded team. With Robert Horry long gone and Tim Duncan aging, they no longer had the long and athletic big men necessary to field an elite defense. After consistently finishing in the top-3 for most of the last decade, their defense had slipped to No. 10 by 2012. As a result, defeating the Thunder was always going to be an uphill battle. By Game 6 of the WCF, with Boris Diaw starting and only Stephen Jackson and Gary Neal getting minutes off the bench, the Spurs had abandoned any hope of stopping Oklahoma City.

The Spurs' frontcourt is much younger and more athletic this season. Tiago Splitter has emerged as a second 7’0 to play next to Tim Duncan while Kawhi Leonard has taken the sophomore leap and become an excellent two-way SF. As a result, their defense has skyrocketed back into the top-3. Neither Splitter nor Leonard can anchor a defense by himself, but playing them in tandem greatly increases the Spurs team speed and athleticism. Their starting five (Parker-Green-Leonard-Splitter-Duncan) has an eye-popping net defensive rating of 84 points allowed per 100 possessions. Both Splitter and Leonard rate highly on an individual level as well, with nearly identical defensive ratings of 95.8 and 95.6 respectively.

Splitter, a 28-year old center from Brazil, came to the NBA in 2010 after a distinguished career in Europe. An athletic 6’11 240 big man with a 7’2 wingspan, he has above-average quickness for a player his size as well as a good feel for the game. He was expected to be a high-level contributor immediately, but he’s needed two seasons to adjust to the speed of the NBA as well as the demands of the Spurs system. Previously, his minutes were capped because Gregg Popovich did not think he could play with Duncan, given that neither is an elite outside shooter. This season, as Duncan and Splitter have become more comfortable together, they’ve developed the ability to play off of each other, allowing San Antonio to maintain their floor spacing without needing to give heavy minutes to defensive liabilities like Matt Bonner and Diaw.

Leonard, an athletic 6’7 225 combo forward with a 7’2 wingspan, is the most athletic perimeter defender the Spurs have had since Bruce Bowen. A 21-year old from San Diego State, he’s taken a dramatic leap forward in his second season, particularly on the defensive end. His defensive rating has gone from 102 as a rookie to 95.8 this year, an impressive jump which indicates his mind is starting to catch up with his body. Combine that with the ability to space the floor and a high overall skill level and he’s the rare young frontcourt player capable of contributing on both sides of the ball. Most importantly, his combination of size, speed and length gives San Antonio someone who can physically match up with elite combo forwards.

The Big Three and Popovich get most of the headlines for San Antonio, but the play of Splitter and Leonard will ultimately determine their season. The Spurs offense has been a championship-level unit for years; their lack of speed and athleticism upfront has been their Achilles heel since 2007. They had no answer for Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom in 2008, Dirk Nowitzki in 2009, Amar’e Stoudemire in 2010, Zach Randolph in 2011 and Durant in 2012. This season, all roads to a championship go through Oklahoma City and Miami, who are built around the two best players in the NBA, uber-athletic 6’9+ combo forwards capable of playing inside and out and almost uniquely designed to punish weak front-court defenses.

In playing Splitter and Duncan together, the Spurs have bucked the recent trend in the NBA. Floor spacing has become the name of the game, to the point where the Lakers benched Gasol in order to play Earl Clark. The Heat don’t have a single 7’0 who receives playing time, while the Thunder have been most effective when they bench Kendrick Perkins and play Serge Ibaka at the 5. Both Miami and Oklahoma City benefit from going small because it increases the amount of space for Durant and LeBron James to operate, but that’s not an issue for San Antonio, as the machine-like execution of their offense allows them to thrive despite playing two big men who can’t shoot 3’s.

The $64,000 question for the Spurs is whether Splitter’s presence on the floor can dictate matchups in a close playoff game. Last season, when Scott Brooks played Durant at the 4, Popovich blinked first, taking his second big man out of the game and going small with Leonard and Jackson upfront. He might be able to con Brooks into keeping Perkins on the floor by sticking with Splitter, but Erik Spoelstra will almost certainly force Splitter to defend Shane Battier 25+ feet from the basket if San Antonio makes the NBA Finals. That type of matchup swung the 2012 Finals, as Perkins could not punish the Heat when they had Battier guarding him in the low post while Oklahoma City’s conventional lineup could not defend the spread-out Miami attack.

Splitter is much more skilled than Perkins, but he’s hardly a primary offensive option either. However, if his off-ball cuts in the paint and offensive rebounding can force Spoelstra to keep Chris Anderson or Udonis Haslem on the floor, Miami suddenly becomes mortal. In the 2012 WCF, the Spurs tried to beat the Thunder at their own game, with predictably disastrous results. This season, San Antonio has returned to their roots, sacrificing a bit of their offensive efficiency in order to play more defensively-sound lineups that feature two conventional big men. It may not be enough to get them a fifth championship, but it at least gives them a fighting chance, something they haven’t really had in the last few years.

Follow @JonathanTjarks

As we move forward with “Amnesty 2.0,” we will see the fascinating possibilities that the provision brings even as the number of teams and players left dwindles with time. One fun component of the rule is that we know exactly which players are eligible for it and that number can only decrease over time since the players had to have been under contract with the same team before the new CBA. As such, any trades, extensions, or contract expirations thin out the list.

The other thing to remember is that most of the benefit of using the amnesty provision comes from additional flexibility in terms of the salary cap- the only money savings owners get from using it come from any reduction in luxury tax payments and whatever a “winning” team bids for that player on amnesty waivers.

Atlanta Hawks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Al Horford

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Since the team traded all of its long-term contracts (except Horford) and potential candidates like Zaza Pachulia’s contracts expire this summer, the only person left for Atlanta to utilize the provision on is Horford. That seems unlikely.

Boston Celtics

Players Eligible for amnesty: Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Paul Pierce

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. After signing five different players to dollar figures over $5 million for 2013-14 this past offseason, the Celtics took all the incentive out of using the amnesty provision on Pierce in 2013.

Brooklyn Nets- Used amnesty provision on Travis Outlaw (December 15, 2011)

Charlotte Bobcats

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Tyrus Thomas

Most likely amnesty decision: Tyrus Thomas in 2014. As of now, the Bobcats do not have enough salary on the books to necessitate making an amnesty move this coming summer. As such, the most likely play is to keep Tyrus until the summer of 2014 when Ben Gordon’s contract is cleared from the ledger. As of now, Charlotte only has players on rookie deals and Brendan Haywood getting money then, so it could be the right time to strike.

Chicago Bulls

Players Eligible for amnesty: Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Carlos Boozer

Most likely amnesty decision: Carlos Boozer in 2014. The decision has become even clearer now, though the TaJ Gibson extension could push the timeline up a little bit if the Bulls are feeling the pressure financially next summer. However, Boozer’s last year comes the same year that Luol Deng becomes a free agent, so a proactive Bulls team could make some FA/trade noise since they have less money on the books.

Cleveland Cavaliers- Used amnesty provision on Baron Davis (December 14, 2011)

Dallas Mavericks- Used amnesty provision on Brendan Haywood (July 12, 2012)

Denver Nuggets- Used amnesty provision on Chris Andersen (July 17, 2012)

Detroit Pistons

Players Eligible for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva and Greg Monroe

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Charlie Villanueva

Most likely amnesty decision: Charlie Villanueva in 2013. It seemed like a foregone conclusion in 2012 and absolutely has to be done in 2013. I cannot see a tangible benefit to leaving his $8.58 million on the cap for 2013-14.

Golden State Warriors- Used amnesty provision on Charlie Bell (December 11, 2011)

Houston Rockets- Used amnesty provision on Luis Scola (July 13, 2012)

Indiana Pacers- Used amnesty provision on James Posey (December 12, 2011)

Los Angeles Clippers- Used amnesty provision on Ryan Gomes (July 18, 2012)

Los Angeles Lakers

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Metta World Peace, Steve Blake

Most likely amnesty decision: Metta World Peace in 2013. Even though the Lakers continue to need a quality small forward in the worst way, shedding the final year of Metta’s onerous deal seems like the best play. The addition of Chris Duhon makes Steve Blake a slightly greater possibility, but he still appears moveable via trade and provides fair value to the team.

Memphis Grizzlies

Players Eligible for amnesty: Zach Randolph, Rudy Gay, Mike Conley

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Zach Randolph (in 2014)

Most likely amnesty decision: Zach Randolph in 2014. Memphis will eventually need to make a decision on what to do with their core. Having Z-Bo, Gay, Conley, and Marc Gasol on the books through 2014-15 likely means that the team has a choice to make in 2014 unless either Randolph or Gay makes it for them by declining their player option. My gut says that new ownership will cut bait on an expensive $16.5 million final year option for Randolph.

Miami Heat

Players Eligible for amnesty: Chris Bosh, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Mike Miller, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem

Most likely amnesty decision: Joel Anthony in 2014. The reigning champs did not lose a single player from their amnesty list over the past year thanks to roster stability. Mike Miller’s health could end up making him the pick but Joel Anthony’s $3.8M final season stands out since the Heat do not have a veteran shooter locked up for 2014-15 at this time. Look for one of the two of them to be shed then, though.

Milwaukee Bucks

Players Eligible for amnesty: Drew Gooden and Larry Sanders

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Drew Gooden

Most likely amnesty decision: Drew Gooden in 2013. With Beno Udrih expiring at the end of this season, Drew Gooden’s two remaining years are the only reasonable option left for amnesty purposes. Considering Brandon Jennings will get a major pay raise this summer and the Bucks will need any flexibility they can get whether or not Monta Ellis opts out, look for him to go even though the team stands unlikely to benefit in any way other than cap room.

Minnesota Timberwolves- Used amnesty provision on Darko Milicic (July 12, 2012)

New Orleans Hornets

Players Eligible for amnesty: No one

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: No one

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. By trading all three players eligible for the amnesty provision (Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, and Jarrett Jack), the Hornets became the first team to be assured not to use it this time around.

New York Knicks- Used amnesty provision on Chauncey Billups (December 10, 2011)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Players Eligible for amnesty: Kevin Durant, Kendrick Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collison

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision:  Not use it. We will have to see how Sam Presti handles the Kendrick Perkins situation, but my read is that they will not utilize it after either of the next two seasons. Nick Collison would be a slight chance in 2014 if he were not so popular with the team and management.

Orlando Magic- Used amnesty provision on Gilbert Arenas (December 9, 2011)

Philadelphia 76ers- Used amnesty provision on Elton Brand (July 12, 2012)

Phoenix Suns- Used amnesty provision on Josh Childress (July 16, 2012)

Portland Trail Blazers- Used amnesty provision on Brandon Roy (December 15, 2011)

Sacramento Kings

Players Eligible for amnesty: John Salmons, Francisco Garcia, DeMarcus Cousins

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: John Salmons, Francisco Garcia

Most likely amnesty decision: John Salmons in 2013. Since Salmons’s deal is only partially guaranteed ($1M) in 2014-15, the Kings would have some flexibility in the 2013 off-season when Tyreke Evans can be extended and Cousins will be one year away if they cut him loose at that point. Interestingly, that low buyout could also make Garcia the choice if management sees the talent disparity between the two as high enough to warrant the switch.

San Antonio Spurs

Players Eligible for amnesty: Tony Parker and Matt Bonner

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Matt Bonner

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Bonner’s partially guaranteed 2013-14 salary would be a possibility but appears unlikely at best.

Toronto Raptors

Players Eligible for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson, Linas Kleiza, Ed Davis

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: Andrea Bargnani, Amir Johnson

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. Utilizing amnesty on Bargnani would be too big an admission of defeat for management, though theoretically a change at the top coupled with more bad play could change the equation sufficiently to put Il Mago on the amnesty line.

Utah Jazz

Players Eligible for amnesty:  Derrick Favors

Reasonable candidates for amnesty: None

Most likely amnesty decision: Not use it. With only young buck Derrick Favors left as eligible to be amnestied, every conceivable sign points to the Jazz joining the Hornets in August 2013 as teams guaranteed not to use the provision.

Washington Wizards- Used amnesty provision on Andray Blatche (July 17, 2012)