Oct 27, 2014 3:56 PM EDT
Rockets' Big Man Rotation
On late Sunday night, the Houston Rockets released Jeff Adrien. While not on par with news like LeBron James heading back to Cleveland, Adrien’s release brought attention to the strange dynamics in the Houston frontcourt. Prior to being waived, you could make the case that Adrien was Houston’s third best big, behind incumbent starters Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones. Yet due to contracts, Adrien finds himself looking for a new team. The leftovers - Donatas Motiejunas, undrafted rookie Tarik Black and Joey Dorsey -- are now left to fill out the crucial rotation spots behind Howard and Jones.
Coming off an underwhelming FIBA tournament, Motiejunas was a mess this October. He posted a preseason PER of 7.88 and was also at fault for more than his fair share of defensive lapses. Part of the struggles could be attributed to the Rockets using Motiejunas as a backup 5 and encouraging more post ups than he will likely see in the regular season. But combined with his 4-of-13 showing on three-pointers, Motiejunas didn’t do anything to justify a rotation spot come Houston’s regular season gams.
Dorsey, signed this offseason after a three years in Europe, didn’t look much better. At 6’7”, Dorsey is something of a Ben Wallace-lite and the Rockets are surely hoping he can fill such a role in the minutes behind Howard. Upon returning from an ankle injury that cost him the first three preseason games, the 30-year-old Dorsey struggled to finish, rebound or impact the game defensively. The ankle injury did keep Dorsey out for the beginning of camp, so with some time to adjust to Houston’s scheme and regain his fitness, Dorsey should be better, but the question is how much?
If Dorsey’s preseason performance doesn’t drastically improve, the next option the Rockets will turn to is likely Black. Coming from out of nowhere, Black impressed with his energy, rebounding and toughness all preseason long. On a younger team with less lofty expectations, Black would be a no-brainer for minutes in an attempt to accelerate the refinement of his game. But this Rockets team is coming off a 54-win season in a loaded West and though Black brings some positive attributes, he’s only 6’8” (though he possesses a wingspan that’s just shy of 7’3”, according to DraftExpress), has an offensive game that’s limited to garbage buckets and is still feeling out the nuances of NBA defense. Black is a potentially a great find for Houston in the long-term, but right now he’s a rookie that’s still trying to find his way in the world’s most competitive league.
There are a few other options the Rockets can possibly sort through as the season wears on. The first being rookie center Clint Capela, who is a virtual unknown at this level because he’s missed all of preseason with a groin injury. The second is shifting rookie small forward Kostas Papanikolaou to the 4, like Houston did with Chandler Parsons at times. But Papanikolaou has also been adjusting to the power and pace of the NBA game and may not be physically capable of holding his own at that spot until a full offseason spent working on his body.
It seems as though with all their roster shuffling hoping to land a third superstar, the Rockets find themselves now with more questions than answers when it comes to an increasingly important part of NBA team-building: depth.
Fire At Will
One of the more fascinating subplots of the recent emphasis on shot efficiency is how spacing-obsessed coaches have handled “shot tweeners” -- players with limited jumpshots thrust into systems that demand their position stretch the floor all the way to the 3-point line. The old rule of development when it came to players like this was that you simply found the range they were most accurate from and limited them to attempts from that far and in. So a lot of coaches simply adjust their system to their personnel even if nowadays it’s been hammered home that 3's are much better than long 2's.
The most brazen conversion attempt happening right now is in Salt Lake City. Trevor Booker and Enes Kanter are currently being thrust into the role of ‘stretch 4’ by new head coach Quin Snyder. Snyder’s system calls for 4-out spacing and lots of ball movement around the perimeter. The problem is that when the ball finds the hands of Booker or Kanter out there, defenses don’t exactly fall over themselves in order to contest the shot. And with good reason as Kanter and Booker have combined to shoot 13 3’s in their career. Yet this preseason, those two have combined to launch 28(!).
Snyder’s system works best when the four players on the perimeter can create maximum room for post ups, pick-and-rolls or drives to the basket. Instead of just accepting what his players current limitations, Snyder (and coaches like Brad Stevens in Boston and Brett Brown in Philly to name a couple more) just tries to jam a square peg in a round hole and hopes it changes shape in the process.
Now there are definitely some underlying factors to this. The biggest one is that all those coaches mentioned are dealing with teams with little or no expectations and currently have the job security needed to watch players develop their perimeter shots on the fly. Monty Williams would probably love to let Anthony Davis get game reps with his 3-point shot, but given his job status depends on New Orleans making the playoffs, that isn’t happening.
Another part of this is the player being challenged to add this shot to his game. Two questions likely need to be addressed before any random player on the roster is told to shoot 3’s for the first time in his career. The first is whether or not that player’s current shooting stroke can handle a shot from further back. Certain mechanics can look funky, but with repetition, they can still be turned into accurate shots from that distance. Some players, like Brandon Bass, may have certain movements in their jumper that mean a drastic shot overhaul (which is a really hard thing to do) would be needed in order to give that player a realistic chance of flirting with league average.
The second question is much more simple, if you give a particular player the green light to test out a new skill in a game, will he work on it diligently during, and more importantly, before and after, practice? There has to be some reciprocity between the coach and player in this situation. If someone like Snyder is giving players like Kanter and Booker the green light to develop this shot on the fly, he should make sure they understand they are required to put in extra work in order to fully take advantage of their newfound freedom.
All this is really just a fun gamble for both the coaches and players in the positions that Snyder, Booker and Kanter are in. If it fails, it will at most cost Snyder a few extra losses for a team that isn’t expected to be in playoff contention. If it works out, Booker, Kanter, Snyder and the Jazz will have hit the jackpot.
Oct 15, 2014 10:26 AM EDT
Our series on candidates for internal improvement on every team in the NBA continues with the Northwest Division, which doesn’t feature markets that have traditionally attracted big-name free agents. In recent years, Carmelo Anthony, Deron Williams and Kevin Love have all departed the division on less than friendly terms. As a result, almost every team in the Northwest has committed itself to building through the draft, with varying levels of success.
The Oklahoma City Thunder represent the gold standard for that model. Not only have they built an elite team almost entirely through homegrown products, they have remained committed to the draft even as they contend for titles. The Thunder have seven different guys on their rookie deals and their ability to take the final step in the playoffs will depend in large part on how well those players can grow into bigger roles over the course of the season.
On the other end of the spectrum are the Utah Jazz, who have six recent lottery picks on their roster but appear no closer to getting out of the basement in the Western Conference. Some have seen their games stagnate as they move into bigger roles while others have struggled to find a role that allows them to maximize their skill-set. Dante Exum might be the future, but he is still a 19-year-old who played high school basketball in Australia last season.
Somewhere in the middle are the Portland Trail Blazers, who shot up the standings last season with a starting line-up better than the sum of its parts and the Denver Nuggets, who are still looking for an identity after dumping George Karl and falling out of the playoffs. The Minnesota Timberwolves, who are in the very beginning of a new rebuilding plan, can only hope that their path looks more like Oklahoma City than Utah in the next few years.
- Oklahoma City Thunder: Steven Adams
The scariest part about where the Thunder go from here is how much room they still have to improve. Over the last three seasons, they’ve been one of the best teams in the NBA while giving Kendrick Perkins 20-25 minutes a game. He has some value as a post defender and a guy who quarterbacks the defense, but imagine if they had a guy with more size and athleticism than Perkins back there who was not a complete non-entity on the offensive end?
Even if Adams never develops a post game, his ability to catch and finish around the rim makes him an upgrade over Perkins. He shot 50% from the field as a rookie, a number Perkins hasn’t matched since his time in Boston. He probably won’t start for another season, but as he improves on both sides of the ball and earns more playing time, the Thunder will be even better than they are now. Where will they be when Adams is at 30-35 minutes a night?
- Portland Trail Blazers: Will Barton
After two seasons on the fringes of the rotation in Portland, Barton could be poised for a breakout year in his third year in the NBA. With Mo Williams gone, there’s room in the rotation for a guard to assume a bigger role on the second unit, which has been one of the biggest weaknesses for the Trail Blazers over the last few seasons. Portland has three young guards on their bench - Barton, CJ McCollum and Allen Crabbe - and one of them needs to step up.
The key for Barton is his outside shot, which improved between his first and second seasons in the league. If he can consistently knock down the 3, his ability to get to the rim and find the open man will give him a leg up on the other two, who are more pure shooters. This is a big year for Barton - if he can’t crack the rotation, he’s probably not long for Portland, as few NBA teams keep second round picks on the end of their bench for four seasons.
- Denver Nuggets: Kenneth Faried
No player had a better summer than Faried, who followed a breakout performance in the World Cup with a $50 million contract extension. The move signals Denver’s commitment to Faried as they try to move forward in the post Karl era. Faried is the only under-25 player slated to have much of a role on the Nuggets roster this season, so their ability to move up the Western hierarchy will depend in large part on how much room he has left to grow.
The key question with Faried is how to build a team around him - is he better off with a shot-blocking center who can protect him on defense or a stretch 4 who can open up the floor for him? Coach K solved the dilemma by pairing him with Anthony Davis, but guys with his skill-set do not grow on trees. If Faried can improve as a perimeter shooter and a defensive player, he will give Brian Shaw more options in terms of how he deploys his frontcourt.
- Minnesota Timberwolves: Gorgui Dieng
After being glued to the bench for most of his rookie season, Dieng exploded in the final few months, taking advantage of an injury to Nik Pekovic to establish himself as a legitimate NBA center. Not only was he a nightly double-double threat, he displayed a skill-set that has been in short supply in Minnesota in recent years - a shot-blocking center who could anchor a defense while also providing quality play on the offensive end of the floor.
With Pekovic likely to be the featured option in a post Kevin Love universe, it’s unclear how many minutes will be there for Dieng. Can he operate as a power forward in a Twin Towers configuration or will he be be siloed into a role as a backup center? One of the big questions for Flip Saunders is whether he can figure out a way to use Pekovic and Dieng together or whether he would be better off flipping one of his C’s to improve the rest of the roster.
- Utah Jazz: Trey Burke
There are a lot of guys who could be featured here, as there a number of talented young players in Utah who haven’t quite figured out who they are in the NBA. None will be more important to the team’s success this season than Burke, the second-year PG who will have to shoulder a huge burden on the offensive side of the ball. Not only will he need to figure out how to score more efficiently, he will have to be able to create easy shots for everyone else too.
As a rookie, Burke shot 38% from the field, struggling with the size and speed of the NBA game. At 6’0 190, he is one of the smallest PG’s in the NBA and he will need to use every bit of his offensive creativity to survive against the longer and bigger defenders he will face on a nightly basis. The key for him is becoming a knock-down shooter - a guy his size will have a hard time surviving in the lane and he has to take advantage of any opening he can create.
May 21, 2014 6:20 PM EDT
The problem with most mock drafts, especially early in the draft process, is the butterfly effect. If just one team in the lottery makes a surprise selection, it causes a chain reaction up and down the board that renders a lot of the previous speculation useless. At this point, I think it’s more useful to look at what each team in the lottery needs and what will be going into their decision-making process. With that in mind, here’s a quick sketch of one way it could go.
1) Cleveland Cavaliers - Joel Embiid
This is from David Griffin’s interview with ESPN last night - “I think we need to get a better fit for our roster. We’ve got an awful lot of talent and we just need to find the pieces that can serve as a conduit to make it gel.” That screams Embiid to me. When you have Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters and Anthony Bennett, the last thing you need is another perimeter player who needs the ball. That core needs interior defense and post scoring, which are Embiid’s two strengths.
2) Milwaukee Bucks - Jabari Parker
If Cleveland takes Embiid, some combination of Parker, Andrew Wiggins and Dante Exum go in the next three picks. It’s hard to go wrong with any of them and when you have multiple elite prospects on the board, you have to look at how they fit with the players already on your roster. In other words, which one makes the most sense playing with Giannis Antetokounmpo? I want an explosive scorer who can stretch the floor next to him, which would be Parker.
3) Philadelphia 76ers - Andrew Wiggins
This would be a great fit for Wiggins, a guy who is more comfortable in transition than playing in the half court at this stage of his career. The one thing I wonder about with Wiggins and the 76ers is that he’s not the pick if you are going by advanced statistics. Here’s the PER of lottery picks from Kansas in the last two seasons - 28.2 (Embiid), 23.2 (Ben McLemore), 21.4 (Wiggins). He’s a guy you take based off the eye test and projecting future ability, not the data.
4) Orlando Magic - Dante Exum
Orlando will be happy to take whoever falls to them, but Exum is the best fit with the players on their roster. At 6’6 195 with a 6’9 wingspan, he’s a big guard who can run point, which would allow him to cross-switch with Victor Oladipo in the backcourt. Taking Exum would free up Oladipo to hound smaller guards on defense and hunt for his own shot on offense. In a best-case scenario, those two would become Orlando’s version of John Wall and Bradley Beal.
5) Utah Jazz - Aaron Gordon
If the draft plays out this way, Utah at No. 5 would be one of the big swing picks in the lottery, as they would have first choice on a run of power forwards. Most people have Noah Vonleh and Julius Randle rated ahead of Gordon, but if they take one of those guys, they would have to go back to the two-post system they went away from this season. Gordon is going to be an incredible pick-and-roll player and he would allow them to play 4-out with Derrick Favors at the 5.
6) Boston Celtics - Noah Vonleh
In this scenario, Boston would have their pick of two fairly similar PF’s in Vonleh and Randle, which could be one of the more interesting debates in this draft. If you are going with the stats and collegiate success, you have to look at Randle, who averaged 15 points and 10 rebounds on 50% shooting and lead Kentucky to the national title game. If you are looking at it from a tools perspective, Vonleh is the better outside shooter and he has much longer arms.
7) Los Angeles Lakers - Julius Randle
I hate to say this about a guy from Dallas, but Randle is the guy I would not want in the Top 7-8 picks. He will put up a lot of stats, but he doesn’t project as a great shooter or a great defensive player and I want my PF to do one of those two things. Given the amount of shots and minutes that could be up for grabs in the Lakers frontcourt, Randle would have a real shot at Rookie of the Year, but I don’t think his ceiling is as high as a lot of these other guys.
8) Sacramento Kings - Marcus Smart
Smart is one of the wild cards in the lottery - there’s a pretty high range of where he could go. It’s hard to see him sneaking into the Top 5 and if he doesn’t go to either the Lakers the Kings, the teams picking after them don’t really need a PG. Smart offers a lot of line-up versatility, as he can play as a SG next to Isaiah Thomas or a PG next to Ben McLemore, but the Kings are an interior defender away from being a solid team, so I wonder if they would reach here.
9) Charlotte Hornets - Nik Stauskas
This seems like the first spot where Doug McDermott could come off the board. Charlotte desperately needs outside shooting and they have the personnel to hide McDermott on defense. However, if they are committed to Cody Zeller at the 4 and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at the 3, Stauskas would be the more logical pick. He’s just as good a shooter as McDermott and he’s a much better passer who has the ability to run the pick-and-roll and create shots for others.
10) Philadelphia 76ers - Doug McDermott
Philadelphia could go in a number of different directions, depending on who they take at No. 3. McDermott, for example, would make a lot more sense next to Wiggins than Parker. Wiggins can defend multiple positions and McDermott can’t defend any while McDermott’s shooting ability would open up the floor for Wiggins and Carter-Williams to attack the rim. I prefer players with more two-way ability, but he could score a lot of points walking into transition 3’s in Philly.
11) Denver Nuggets - Jusuf Nurkic
If Brian Shaw wants to run more offense out of the low post, Nurkic makes a lot of sense. At 6’11 280 with a 7’2 wingspan, Nurkic is a 19-year old who is already big enough to score over most NBA centers. He comes into the league with a pretty solid post game and he moves well for a player with his mammoth size. He’s not getting up and down the court particularly fast, so taking him would represent a complete turning of the page from George Karl’s small ball style.
12) Orlando Magic - Adreian Payne
If the Magic go with a perimeter player at No. 4, they will probably want to look at a front-court player at No. 12. Nik Vucevic is entrenched at center, but he isn’t much of a shot-blocker, so that’s a huge need in terms of how they are going to build their roster. I’m surprised at how far Payne is sliding in some of these mocks. He is a legitimate stretch 4 with elite athletic ability who has the ability to play interior defense and rebound - that’s exactly what Orlando needs.
13) Minnesota Timberwolves - Gary Harris
Minnesota was a perfect example of the problems with fielding a line-up of one-way players. Nik Pekovic, Kevin Love and Kevin Martin are all poor defenders, while Ricky Rubio and Corey Brewer are both poor outside shooters. The result was a group that was worse than the sum of its parts. Harris doesn’t have the upside of a guy like LaVine, but he’s a safer pick who will instantly make the Wolves a better team on both sides of the ball.
14) Phoenix Suns - Zach LaVine
I’m going to put the Suns as the floor for LaVine. They have three first-round picks in this draft, so they will be willing to roll the dice on a guy with as much pure ability as anyone on the board. He didn’t do much in his one season at UCLA, but he’s a 6’5 180 with a 6’8 wingspan, he can jump out of the gym, he has unlimited range on his jumper and he can handle the ball like a PG. LaVine has a chance to be a special player in the type of uptempo system the Suns run.
Feb 21, 2014
The Western Conference is highly competitive this season, but that didn't carry over to a deadline in which Steve Blake was the most important acquisition after the Rockets were unable to cash in their Omer Asik chip.
Nov 10, 2013
C.J. Miles is off to the best start of his career, averaging over 13 points and supplying Mike Brown with a potent shooter to surround Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters and Jarrett Jack. The Cavaliers held an option on the final year of Miles’ deal this season, but exercising it was a formality and he’s cozied into playing part in the team’s core.
Oct 29, 2013
While there are no direct criteria, my non-national teams have to have entertainment value on a game to game basis and fascinating pieces in the form of young talent or new additions. Each of these squads fits that bill and there were a few tough omissions as well.
Oct 29, 2013
The following 30 questions are the biggest issues facing each NBA front office as the 13-14 regular season begins.
Aug 16, 2013
Great drafts for the Rockets, 76ers, Nets, Warriors, Hawks and Grizzlies headline this complete rundown of the 2013 offseason.
Jul 18, 2013
The Jazz broke apart a 43-win team and received nothing in return, but it’s been a fire sale years in the making. Ever since dealing Deron Williams in 2011, they have been quietly rebuilding their roster. In the process, they pulled off the rare double dip: acquiring multiple high lottery picks without sinking to the bottom of the standings.
Jul 10, 2013
Taken with the No. 9 pick in the draft, Trey Burke is believed to be the most NBA-ready point guard in this year’s lottery. The expectations on Burke are high, but he has proven to have leadership qualities in this past year’s Final Four.
Jul 01, 2013
With the 2013 NBA offseason underway, here is a primer on what all 30 teams are facing.
Jun 28, 2013
Breaking down all 30 teams by category of how they fared in the often surprising, never disappointing 2013 NBA Draft.
May 19, 2013
We have seen a whole lot of changes since the pre-Tournament issue of the Lottery Lowdown. March Madness gave us a few players to watch both this year and for 2014 while the Nike Hoop Summit and Combine helped clarify the picture in terms of athletic ability and positional versatility.
Mar 05, 2013
The Jazz have had painful moments this season out of a partial youth movement while competing for the playoffs, and as a rookie, Al Jefferson was a 20-year-old drafted into the same hybrid situation.
Feb 21, 2013
The Kings, Knicks, Rockets, Thunder and Cavaliers have been the most active teams at the deadline over the past decade, while the Spurs, Pistons, Heat, Lakers and Pacers have made the fewest deals.
Dec 24, 2012
With the Jazz in a transition era and Paul Millsap’s contract ending at the end of the season, there’s uncertainty if this is his final season in Salt Lake City. Millsap spoke with RealGM about the direction of the Jazz franchise and his plans for free agency in the summer of 2013.
Nov 01, 2012
While the drop-off from the Heat to the rest of the Eastern Conference is severe, the Lakers, Spurs and Thunder have quick company in the second and third tiers.
Oct 31, 2012
The Jazz have long decided that Raja Bell is out of their plans, to which Bell has responded by saying he’s on board with the organization’s rebuilding plan but just wants to head to a team where he’d be utilized properly.
Aug 19, 2012
The Nuggets, Lakers, Heat, 76ers and Nets were amongst the teams with great offseasons, while the Bucks, Magic, Suns, Knicks, Cavaliers and Bulls were in the bad column. Here's how all 30 teams have fared in the 2012 offseason.
Aug 13, 2012
The Jazz and Thunder have had the most Gold Medalists since the USA began bringing NBA players in 1992, while Duke leads amongst colleges. How do the other 29 NBA teams rank?
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