Apr 17, 2014 8:08 PM EDT
In a society where patience has gone out the window and only instant gratification matters, the poor play of the 2013 rookie class has many ready to write them off entirely. But while there isn’t an Anthony Davis in the bunch, this year’s draft had plenty of good young players who, for a variety of reasons, were not ready to make an immediate impact in the NBA. With so many freshman and sophomores taken in the lottery, the draft is a long-term project anyway.
If you look at this year’s lottery as a whole, one thing stands out. If a team is good enough to contend for a playoff spot, it’s hard for a rookie to get minutes. If a team is bad enough to where they can afford to give rookie a bunch of minutes, he will be putting up inefficient numbers on a bad team. From a statistical perspective, it’s hard for a rookie to be impressive in either situation. Chalk it up as a learning experience for all these guys.
1) Anthony Bennett: Pretty much nothing has gone right for Bennett since he was the surprise No. 1 pick last June. The GM who drafted him has already been fired, while shoulder surgery in the offseason caused him to show up to training camp out of shape. It was hard for him to find minutes on a Cleveland team that thought it was contending for the playoffs, and when he got on the floor, he didn’t do much besides hoist up a lot of shots and play abysmal defense.
The first thing he needs to do is get in better shape, since there aren’t many 6’8 260 forwards in the NBA. He has the talent - in college, he showed a rare combination of explosiveness, ball-handling and shooting ability for a 6’8 guy. The biggest challenge for him is learning how to impact the game without having the ball in his hands. The Cavs guards aren’t moving the ball too much - if you are going to score, you had better rebound, run the floor and move off the ball.
2) Victor Oladipo: Oladipo had a solid rookie season for a Magic team that had nothing but time to develop him. Going forward, the question is whether they commit to developing him as a PG or move him off the ball. While he has the length and athleticism to swing between both guard positions, he averaged only 4.1 assists on 3.2 turnovers as a rookie, an indication of a player not comfortable creating offense for others. Who they draft with their two lottery picks in 2014 will say a lot.
3) Otto Porter: Like Bennett, Porter hit the trifecta for a rough rookie season. He was drafted to a team with playoff aspirations, he had multiple veterans ahead of him on the depth chart and he got injured in training camp. He essentially took a redshirt season as a rookie, which isn’t the worst thing for a 20-year old who needs to put some weight on his frame. Porter has plenty of skill, the question is whether there will be minutes and touches for him in Washington next season.
4) Cody Zeller: The unexpected emergence of Josh McRoberts consigned Zeller to a small role as a rookie, playing 17 minutes a game behind McRoberts and Al Jefferson upfront. Like most rookie big men, Zeller needs to put on weight in the off-season in order to survive in the NBA paint. His 73 percent mark from the free-throw line is a good sign - he needs to be an outside-in 7’0 who plays in the high post and uses the threat of the perimeter jumper to open up the drive.
5) Alex Len: Like a lot of the guys in this year’s draft, Len was the victim of his NBA team exceeding expectations as a rookie. Instead of playing for draft position, the Suns ended up in playoff contention until the last week of the season, leaving little time to develop a raw 20-year-old lottery pick. Len is big (7’1 255), athletic and reasonably skilled and he’s five years younger than Miles Plumlee, which tells you how patient you need to be with young centers.
6) Nerlens Noel: After tearing his ACL toward the end of his freshman season at Kentucky, Noel was never going to have a big rookie season in the NBA. The Philadelphia 76ers took him as a long-term project and kept him off the floor the entire season. Noel showed plenty of promise at Kentucky, but he was also incredibly skinny as well as very raw on the offense. Larry Sanders didn’t start turning the corner in the NBA until he was 24 and Noel is still only 20.
7) Ben McLemore: McLemore wasn’t in Kansas anymore as a rookie, as he went from a featured role in Bill Self’s offense to scraping for shots next to Isaiah Thomas, Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins. He’s got the stroke and athleticism to be an excellent SG in the NBA, but he has a long way to go in terms of shot selection and not too many guys to learn from in Sacramento. Going forward, he needs to focus on defense and moving the ball and the shots will come (hopefully).
8) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Caldwell-Pope got plenty of opportunities in the dumpster fire that was the Pistons season, but he didn’t do all that much with them. With Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith clogging up the paint, Caldwell-Pope had to serve as one of their main floor spacers and he shot only 30 percent from three-point territory. Like the rest of the Pistons, he would benefit from unwinding the logjam upfront and playing with more shooters around him.
9) Trey Burke: Burke broke his finger in the preseason and by the time he returned to the lineup, the Jazz season was essentially over. No rookie in this year’s class walked into more responsibility than Burke, who played 32 minutes a night in Utah and had the ball in his hands most of the time. He made the players around him better - averaging 5.6 assists on 1.9 turnovers as a rookie - he just needs more help on the offensive end from whoever Utah drafts this season.
10) CJ McCollum: Another lottery pick whose rookie season was short-circuited before it got a chance to get going. Damian Lillard and Mo Williams do everything McCollum does but better and the Trail Blazers were contending for a homecourt advantage in the playoffs for most of the season. Williams is likely gone in the off-season, but with Lillard entrenched in Portland, the question is whether McCollum is going to play next to him or be his backup.
11) Michael Carter-Williams: One of the real surprises of this year’s rookie class, Carter-Williams had the 76ers flirting with respectability in the first few months of the season. Once they dumped Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner, leaving Thaddeus Young as the only proven NBA player in the rotation, things got real bad real quickly. No rookie was going to fix that mess and a 6’6 PG with his athleticism and floor vision has a bright future ahead of him.
12) Steven Adams: The Thunder drafted the 20-year-old Adams as a project, so the respectable numbers he gave them as a backup center were a pleasant surprise. He’s a genuinely massive human being with excellent athleticism who isn’t asked to do much on the offensive end. Of course, it also helps to be replacing Kendrick Perkins. Oklahoma City is a notoriously patient franchise - they are probably grooming Adams to be the starter when Perkins contract is up in 2015.
13) Kelly Olynyk: After a dominant showing in Summer League, Olynyk was hit with a taste of reality in the NBA. While he put up good offensive numbers and he rebounded the ball well coming off the bench, he was never really in contention for ROY. The question is how he fits with Jared Sullinger upfront - does Boston need two offensive-minded big men who can’t move their feet on defense? There may not be minutes for them both long-term.
14) Shabazz Muhammad - Like fellow rookie Gorgui Dieng, Muhammad spent most of his first season with the Timberwolves from the bench watching the playoff push. In the limited minutes he did get, Muhammad showed one thing did translate from his UCLA days - this is a guy who knows how to get his FGA’s. Per-36 minutes, he took 17 FGA’s and made them at a 46 percent clip. Muhammad may never be a great defender, but he’ll be getting buckets off the bench for a long time.
Mar 17, 2014 4:29 PM EDT
While RealGM has an excellent database of the draft picks that have been traded between teams, I wanted to put together a summary more focused on the upcoming draft. For the sake of clarity, this version will only deal with the first round.
Atlanta Hawks- Have the right to swap their own pick with Brooklyn’s. At this point, it appears Atlanta will just keep their own and move on.
Boston Celtics- Have their own first and the less favorable of Atlanta and Brooklyn, likely Brooklyn right now. They have a future first from the Sixers as well, but it only goes this year if Philadelphia makes the playoffs. We all know that will not happen.
Brooklyn Nets- No matter what, they lose their pick without getting one in return.
Charlotte Bobcats- Their own first goes to Chicago as long as the Bobcats stay remotely on track (top-10 protected) but they pick up Portland’s unless the Blazers effectively lose out. The lingering question is Detroit- if the pick is 1-8, the Pistons keep it but if it’s 9th or worse it goes to Charlotte. My gut feeling is that once Detroit knows they will not make the playoffs we will see a push to the bottom reminiscent of the 2012 Warriors.
Chicago Bulls- Have their own pick and Charlotte’s unless the Bobcats collapse. The Sacramento pick they acquired in the Luol Deng trade is top-12 protected so it will not come this year.
Cleveland Cavaliers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Dallas Mavericks- One of the more interesting situations in the league. By having top-20 protection on their pick (it goes to Oklahoma City if it falls 21-30 this year), the Mavs could lose their pick if they make the playoffs. Right now, the bottom seeds in the West look to be about even with the 3-4 spots in the East, so it could go either way.
Denver Nuggets- They keep the better of their pick and New York’s, sending the worse one to Orlando.
Detroit Pistons- Keep their pick if it is eighth or better, otherwise it goes to Charlotte. I fully expect them to understand the incentives and lose enough to retain it.
Golden State Warriors- Their first goes to Utah no matter what.
Houston Rockets- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Indiana Pacers- Their pick is going to Phoenix as a part of the Luis Scola trade from last summer.
Los Angeles Clippers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Los Angeles Lakers- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Memphis Grizzlies- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Miami Heat- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Milwaukee Bucks- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Minnesota Timberwolves- The pick is top-13 protected, meaning they have to make the postseason or have the best record of any non-playoff team to send it to Phoenix. At this point, it looks like the pick will be No. 13 and thus the Wolves will keep it.
New Orleans Pelicans- Their pick goes to Philadelphia unless it lands in the top-five. It will be hard for the Pelicans to jump enough of the teams “ahead” of them, but they still have a shot of jumping them in the lottery itself.
New York Knicks- They lose their pick no matter what, though the destination could change.
Oklahoma City Thunder- They have their own pick and get Dallas’ first if it ends up between 21 and 30, certainly a possibility.
Orlando Magic- Retain their own pick and get the less favorable of Denver and New York’s selections. This could end up swinging on whether the Knicks can make the playoffs- if they do, the pick falls a few spots to No. 15.
Philadelphia 76ers- They keep their own pick as long as they miss the playoffs (just a formality at this point) and pick up one from New Orleans as long as it falls outside the top five.
Phoenix Suns- They have their own pick and Indiana’s on lock and appear likely to pick up Washington’s since the Wizards should make the playoffs. Minnesota’s pick has top-13 protection, so I expect the Suns to only end up with three this year.
Portland Trail Blazers- Their pick is going to Charlotte unless the Blazers have a truly epic collapse.
Sacramento Kings- Their pick has top-12 protection, so the Kings look like they will keep it even if they rattle off some late-season wins.
San Antonio Spurs- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Toronto Raptors- Have their own pick free and clear and no other first rounders.
Utah Jazz- They have both their own pick and Golden State’s.
Washington Wizards- They will send their pick to Phoenix barring a major letdown.
Mar 11, 2014 2:16 AM EDT
Within a team meeting pushing hours, John Wall sat and listened to veterans lash out and grumble about misplaced shooting tendencies of younger players. Nene had pressed the issues of selfish play days earlier and Trevor Ariza and Al Harrington hatched a team sitdown nine games into the season, a cleansing of beliefs about distributing offensive touches and roles, about minutes and schemes.
Everyone spoke, everyone provided opinions on why another season had started like so many others for the Washington Wizards: unorganized and mismanaged. Final say? The exchanges stopped upon John Wall’s words.
Essentially, teammates gave Wall the room, centered him in a classroom setting and asked: What should our roles be? You’re the heralded franchise star, the organization’s maximum salary designation. How about you tell us?
“From that day forward, I knew I was the guy, the leader, and I knew that they trusted me,” Wall told RealGM. “I let everybody know what I thought about our state. I think we were passing the ball, but when you’re not playing good for a stretch, frustration sets in. So guys find a way to blame it on somebody else or something else. Nene told me to stand up in front of the whole team and told me, ‘You’re our leader, you’re our franchise guy, so tell us what you think everybody’s roles are.’
“My first few years, I didn’t have really great veteran leaders. It was tough on me trying to learn and trying to stay healthy at the same time to improve my game for the NBA. Trevor won a championship – [Marcin] Gortat, Nene, guys who have been to the playoffs – I’m trying to learn from them and be in their shoes.
“These past two years, I’ve had great veterans – guys who see how hard I work and trust my talent. They want to see me progress.”
Ernie Grunfield stockpiled talented assets after Gilbert Arenas’ disruptive exit, drafting Nick Young, JaVale McGee and Wall over the course of four NBA Drafts. Misfit parts surrounded them, decaying veterans built around a cast of brash, unseasoned twentysomethings, and Wall rapidly learned the fine line between toxic youth and refined experience.
Finally, Wall believes the Wizards surrounded him with qualified vets and stability in the coaching staff. A 2-7 start, correctable misunderstandings among younger and older players, and the team sensed people in the city wonder – here we go again. Only Wall delivered on his summer declarations and became a first-time All-Star, a locker room galvanized and turned disagreements into cooperation, roles solidified, and now Washington is in legitimate contention for homecourt advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.
“We might have our bumps and moments where we argue and not agree on a lot of things,” Wall said, “but we’re professional, we’re all grown men, and we all know how to talk to each other. We didn’t start the way we were capable of, but we all respect each other and we want each other to do good.”
When opposing scouts discuss a heightened level of playmaking, of the game slowing down for someone, look no further than Wall. Even on his worst shooting nights, the Wizards notice an engaged point guard, a reflection of maturity, ease and a fulfilled contract extension.
Wall secured his long-term deal in late July, and he recognizes the looming free agencies of Ariza and Gortat. Now, Wall, 23, has assumed the responsibility to let pending both pending free agents know about his desire for them to stay with the Wizards. Ariza is an indispensible defender and shooter this season, a former NBA champion whom teammates trust. Despite talk the Wizards explored negotiating an extension during the season, Gortat had made clear before the season that he would solely focus on playing out his contract prior to becoming a free agent, sources told RealGM.
“Trevor and Gortat already know how I feel about them,” Wall told RealGM. “I talked to Trevor about when he could have opted out this past season and I wanted him to come back. I know it’s a tough situation for him because you never know when your career is over. You want to get closer to winning championships, but I feel like if we stick together, anything can happen.
“I signed five years for a reason: Yeah, I want to keep this core going. I want to keep winning and bring some excitement back to D.C.”
This is what he had been telling everyone in Summer League and Team USA minicamps, a typical moment for excessive confidence out of the league’s every sector. Yet he’s spent the season supporting those promises, individual- and team-related. In truth, Nene’s return from a sprained knee ligament could be wishful thinking for Wall and these Wizards, but Randy Wittman’s got them believing their existing talent compensates.
Wall had grown so accustom to the scene: a lackluster start to the season and segments of the Washington locker room slowly griping. This team meeting, teammates had settled upon the chair of the franchise’s max player. This time, John Wall received the final say.
Nov 11, 2013
Not trading for Marcin Gortat would have all but guaranteed that the Wizards continued to be a losing organization. This trade shows that the Wizards are tired of losing and they are committed to making the playoffs regardless of long-term implications.
Oct 29, 2013
The goal here is look at overall long-term value of players by considering age, contract, positional scarcity and of course overall quality, without factors like a player’s connection with a franchise or fit within a specific system.
Oct 21, 2013
While the Western Conference has six teams (Clippers, Thunder, Rockets, Grizzlies, Warriors) in its first tier, the Eastern Conference is a tier of one (Heat) with the Bulls, Pacers and Nets vying for the second tier.
Oct 04, 2013
The days of the $6 million per year role player may be all but over. Mo Williams, Mike Miller, Beno Udrih and Wayne Ellington are at the forefront of the new market inefficiency in the NBA -- veteran role players from the free agency bargain bin.
Aug 01, 2013
Signing John Wall to this extension now puts a massive amount of risk and pressure on the team for the duration of the deal. In order to earn his contract and role, Wall must both stay on the floor and continue to improve- max players on non-elite teams at any position have these responsibilities.
Aug 01, 2013
The treadmill is somehow both more and less common than some might think. While teams tend to fall within the 30-49 win range, as would be expected in such a competitive league, the dreaded never-ending stream of late lottery picks is uncommon.
Jul 23, 2013
John Wall has seen NBA players come into the USA Basketball program over the summers to absorb the experience and competition, only to turn it all into a career season in the fall. He wants to take from this week’s minicamp a similar impact, but there’s a desire to show the coaches and officials that he’s a rising guard, too.
Jul 01, 2013
The Wizards and Cavaliers have been loading up on high lottery picks, but haven't selected a true big man with any of them. It is a risky assumption that you don’t need a high-level center to win.
Jun 27, 2013
Draft day has finally arrived and while everyone pines for the 2014 class already, this one has the chance to be sneaky good in the 'many quality starters' variety.
Jun 26, 2013
In this mock, we include the PER of each player based on the quality of opponent. Even statistics in this context can only go so far, but helps move beyond the possibility of inflation against competition that isn't even close to being NBA caliber.
Jun 23, 2013
Entering draft week in a draft universally labeled as weak preceding the best draft of the decade, few people are talking themselves into falling in love with any specific player as fervently as usual.
Jun 03, 2013
Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams, Rudy Gobert, Otto Porter and Alex Len join Nerlens Noel at the top of our draft board.
May 02, 2013
With the modern game becoming more perimeter-oriented, lumbering centers have become an endangered species. As a result, there’s a fair chance Jason Collins’ NBA career is over, not because of his sexuality, but because his job description is obsolete.
Apr 19, 2013
Along with Duncan, Garnett, Webber and Dirk, Rasheed Wallace redefined the power forward position and revolutionized the game. But while he was as talented as his four contemporaries, he's the only one who won't wind up in the Hall. Wallace never cared much for his image or his legacy, which is why, paradoxically enough, he became such a beloved countercultural figure.
Apr 18, 2013
A winning record to reach the playoffs wasn't necessary this season in the Eastern Conference, which demonstrates how far the Raptors, Cavaliers, Magic, 76ers, Wizards, Pistons and Bobcats are from becoming contenders without addressing significant issues this offseason.
Feb 21, 2013
The worst case for the Celtics here is that Jordan Crawford can’t earn minutes and becomes the ninth man off the bench. On certain nights, he can be a dangerous bench scorer.
Feb 18, 2013
The Wizards look to have a particularly compelling outlook moving away from the All-Star break, due to the dichotomy their season has possessed thus far coupled with an uncertain roster future moving forward.
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