Because of the fast pace of both teams, BYU versus Iona has the potential to be one of the most entertaining First Four games of all-time. Also, I am salivating at seeing Missouri’s guards and Florida’s guards potentially clashing in the round of 32. But before I start breaking down the bracket, let’s throw a few quick stats at the wall:

Which Conferences Did the Best?

One thing I like to track during the NCAA tournament is whether conferences are exceeding expectations or falling short. One way to do that is to look at how seeds have performed from 1985 to 2011 and predict an expected number of wins for each conference.

(Note: In all tables I am only counting wins in the Round of 64 and beyond.)

Based on these seed expectations and the seeds received, the Big East should win the most games in the tournament, but the Big Ten is expected to win nearly as many games with three fewer teams.

We can also use this year’s margin-of-victory numbers to form an expectation. In the next table I use Ken Pomeroy’s predicted probabilities. Here we get a slightly different picture. His model expects the Big Ten to win the most games in the tournament, with the ACC earning far fewer wins than their high seeds would indicate:

Team-By-Team

2012 is the year of the clear favorite. It will be virtually impossible for any of the experts who follow college basketball not to pick Kentucky to win the national championship. In terms of the measured statistics like margin-of-victory, in terms of the NBA ready talent on the floor, in terms of 34 games on TV over four months, no one has come close to the Wildcats this season.

But more importantly, there are no clear alternatives to the Wildcats. Again using Ken Pomeroy’s formula, here are the expected wins for each team in the tournament this year:

Rather than showing one clear alternative, the numbers show a great deal of balance between the top seeds.

The Right Side of the Bracket (East and Midwest)

The margin-of-victory crowd is going to love Ohio St., but they might be the only ones. Despite bringing back one of the top post players in the country in Jared Sullinger, one of the top defenders in Aaron Craft, one of the most prolific two-guards in William Buford, and watching Deshaun Thomas emerge into a versatile scoring threat, Ohio St.’s offense has struggled at times this year. Ohio St. has simply not been able to replace the outside shooting of Jon Diebler. And by sharing the Big Ten title and falling to Michigan St. in the conference tournament, very few people are going to be in love with this team. Add in a potential Sweet Sixteen match-up with a Florida St. team that has two wins against Duke and two wins against North Carolina, and Ohio St. will get far less love than these numbers would suggest.

Syracuse is the more traditional favorite, but they are the worst defensive rebounding team in the field, and their offense can look stagnant when they aren’t forcing turnovers. Even a second round match-up against Kansas St. could be a nightmare for Syracuse. Kansas St.’s team is built to crash the glass, and if Angel Rodriguez can simply throw up jump shots (instead of turning the ball over at his normally high rate), Kansas St. might have a chance for an upset.

North Carolina is the choice for people who like NBA talent, but the ACC was so weak this year, the Tar Heels didn’t get their normal share of big games. And when they did play quality teams, they would usually be close. UNC would win 54-51 against Virginia or 69-67 against NC State. Certainly everyone says North Carolina has a lot of NBA ready talent on paper, but unlike Kentucky, it never felt like North Carolina was unbeatable. Ever since the big win over Michigan St. on an aircraft carrier to start the season, they rarely gave off that aura of invincibility. And with John Henson’s injury this weekend, there are additional doubts about the Tar Heels.

If you are scared away by Kentucky’s inexperience, you might like Kansas. The Jayhawks don’t have any amazing freshmen this year because the majority of their recruiting class was declared academically ineligible to start the season. That has left Kansas with a veteran lineup and Bill Self has clearly got the most out of every player on the floor. The once ridiculed Tyshawn Taylor has emerged as a polished superstar and Thomas Robinson emerged into quite possibly the best player in the country.

But when you look at this group of four teams (Syracuse, Ohio St., North Carolina, and Kansas) any honest evaluation would say that it truly is a toss-up. I would unquestionably pick these four teams for the regional finals on that half of the bracket, but I have no idea which of these teams will play in the national title game.

The Left Side of the Bracket (West)

On the other side of the bracket, it is hard not to love what Michigan St. has accomplished this year. But the Spartans got the worst possible second round draw. Memphis has been absolutely demolishing teams lately, winning their last seven games by 18 points or more. Michigan St. may be able to exploit Memphis’ lack of size in the paint better than any team in the nation, but they shouldn’t have to face such a dominant team in the second round. (Oh, and if St. Louis upsets Memphis, they have elite margin-of-victory numbers too.) So even if Michigan St. was a reasonable pick for a deep run based on their performance in the toughest conference in the country this year, the bracket makes the Spartans a very risky bet.

Instead many people will be drawn to the sentimental favorite Missouri. Don’t pick against the Tigers because of their lack of depth. They’ve played smart and avoided foul trouble all year. Don’t pick against the Tigers because of their lack of size. They’ve played bigger teams all year, and they’ve actually struggled more against smaller quicker teams. In fact, I would argue that picking against Missouri is the most unpleasant thing you could possibly do this year. With only 7 scholarship players, this group has developed a type of offensive chemistry that will help you rediscover a love for basketball.

I think part of what made the Missouri offense so good this year was the change of pace. Normally when a player goes to the NBA they realize that the game is much faster. But eventually the game slows down. Well, Missouri is having a slow-down moment. While Missouri still plays at an exceedingly fast-pace relative to most teams, it is much slower than what they played under Mike Anderson. Somehow the game is very calm and controlled for them, while remaining at a fever pitch for opponents.

Ricardo Ratliffe is the perfect example. Teams know that he shoots nearly 70% in the paint so they cannot afford to let him get paint touches, but somehow the Missouri guards are always cutting and using screens and finding a way to get him the ball in scoring position. And Ratliffe probably has the quickest release of any post player in college today. He rarely holds the ball and lets the defense react. He catches the ball and gets it up on the backboard immediately

Having said all that, I’m not in love with Missouri’s draw. Let me get to that:

First, I really like Florida over Virginia. A number of the experts say that Virginia likes to play a pack-line defense and force teams to shoot over the top. Well, Florida is not afraid to shoot over the top. But I actually think that is a little over-rated. Virginia has played the pack-line defense, but still been quick enough to get out on shooters. What concerns me more than anything is how poorly Virginia has played since Assane Sene has gone down. The defense just hasn’t been the same without the 7 footer in the middle, and he is not going to be back for the tournament.

And if Florida advances to face Missouri, that’s a dream match-up on paper. While Missouri has succeeded by playing four guards around Ricardo Ratliffe, that will allow Florida to play four guards around Patric Young. And while Kentucky has almost single-handedly convinced the country that Florida isn’t very good, realistically Florida is almost the mirror-image of Missouri. Missouri might be the favorite, but that game would be very close to a toss-up.

And if Missouri faces Marquette in the Sweet Sixteen, Marquette is another team that has the quickness to stay with Missouri. Plus Buzz Williams clearly takes his scouting to another level in the NCAA tournament. Facing his team after a four day break would be a nightmare.

The Left Side of the Bracket (South)

Duke drew the short straw getting placed in the same region as Kentucky. And the Blue Devils were also clearly the least dominant of the 1 and 2 seeds during the regular season. Give Mike Krzyzewski credit for putting together the right non-conference schedule that got Duke the quality wins they need to be a 2-seed, but even the usually Duke-loving Dick Vitale has said that this is not a vintage Duke team. When Vitale says the Blue Devils might lose in the second round of the tournament, you know they have flaws. Now is probably a good time for me to show another Expected Win chart:

Baylor will be the clear pick to upset Duke for some people based on the large amount of NBA talent on their roster. But as an NBA-centered team, they remind me a lot of recent Texas teams under Rick Barnes. Somehow showing off their game for NBA scouts is more important than winning. Baylor proved some skeptics wrong by beating Kansas in the Big 12 tournament, but if Missouri will make you love college basketball, cheering for Baylor will absolutely drive you nuts. You almost have to beg for Perry Jones III to get a post touch, and while Brady Heslip is a great sharp-shooter, he doesn’t seem to have any feel for when to take threes and when to work the offense.

Dark Horses

- I’ve already written at length about how Wisconsin’s numbers are inflated based on crushing a bunch of small teams early in the season. But I do believe the Badgers are dangerous. My main concern with picking them is that at their slow pace, they open up the door to losing any game. Montana is clearly not in Wisconsin’s league, but in a 58 possession game, against a solid Montana defense, the game will probably be close.

- Wichita St. is the most dominant MVC team since Ken Pomeroy began tracking stats, and they have the kind of 7-foot center in Garrett Stutz that a lot of mid-major teams do not. That is why Seth Davis was professing his love for this team on CBS.

- Vanderbilt absolutely has the talent at every position to beat any team in the country. And they should long savor their win over Kentucky in the SEC final. But the main complaint is that the Commodores have failed to play well against weaker teams. With basically the same lineup they’ve lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament in previous years, and they had many games this season where they struggled with weaker opponents. Sure, I’ll believe you if you say they can beat Syracuse. But can they even get to that game?

- Finally, Florida St. is the team that a lot of people are going to be picking based on the ACC tournament title. But again, they have a potential nightmare match-up if they face Cincinnati. The Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country at forcing steals and Florida St.’s biggest weakness is holding on to the ball. Sure, they might be able to beat Ohio St. But can they even get to that game?

Here are more expected wins in the round of 64 and beyond:

- In case it wasn’t clear how terrible the draw is for Memphis and St. Louis. Memphis has the 9th best Pomeroy ranking, but is 22nd in expected wins. St. Louis had the 15th best Pomeroy ranking, but is 39th in expected wins.

- Southern Miss has some of the worst margin-of-victory stats in the field. Don’t pick them to upset Kansas St.

And here is the last of the list:

Parting Thoughts

- Seth Davis said it well at the end of the selection special, the NCAA committee sent a message that non-conference strength-of-schedule matters. That’s why Iona got in ahead of Drexel. And that’s why Missouri was not a #1 seed. A lot of people will argue with that message. What does non-conference strength-of-schedule have to do with evaluating the quality of a team? Isn’t the goal to pick the best teams? But I’ve been watching this show for 20 years, and the committee has always had this emphasis. They want to incentivize teams to play big games early in the season, and whether it is an explicit criteria or not, it is a criteria.

- I still can’t believe Kevin Harlan weaved in a comment about Peyton Manning during the Arizona vs Colorado Pac-12 final. (Yes, Manning probably won’t be choosing between Denver and Arizona based on the outcome of that game.)

- Finally, only Bob Knight could manage to eat an ice cream cone while calling a college basketball game.

The older I get, the more I see that one of the things I love most about sports is the variety of it, the diversity of it and the CHARACTERS. Men’s tennis is at its best in many years because, for the first time in a long time, the top three or four players all have wildly different styles. The Tim Tebow story was fun on so many levels, but one of those levels was that he was just SO DIFFERENT in how he played — I’d say we are entering a great time for quarterbacks, because Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning and Drew Brees and Michael Vick and Cam Newton and Tebow and others are not really alike at all.

-- Joe Posnanski

As a basketball fan, I’ve never understood the division that exists between fans of the NBA and the NCAA. While the NBA has the best basketball players in the world, March Madness is compelling in its own right and as entertaining as anything that happens on the professional level.

In the NBA, the owners of the 30 franchises consider turning a profit and getting an equal shot at the top players a right, regardless of how well (or how poorly) they run their organization and the respective size of their fan-bases. Since every losing team is a few ping pong balls from the rights to a LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Dwight Howard, personnel determines scheme in the NBA.

In contrast, the vast majority of the 344 Division I programs in college basketball have little chance of ever receiving a commitment from a McDonald’s All-American. But instead of petulantly trying to sabotage the sport in a misguided effort to legislate fairness, schools try many creative ways of leveraging the talents of the players they can recruit. As a result, scheme determines personnel in the NCAA.

At Syracuse, Jim Boeheim has made a Hall of Fame career out of running a contrarian scheme, in his case an aggressive 2-3 zone. The Orange traditionally have rosters full of “1.5’s”, 6’3+ combo guards lacking the quickness to defend elite PG’s and the size to defend SG’s, and “3.5’s”, 6’8+ combo forwards lacking the quickness to defend elite SF’s and the size to defend PF’s. However, because Syracuse never plays man defense, the athletic deficiencies of their players are minimized.

So while nearly every NBA team runs a fairly similar system of isolations, pick-and-rolls and man defense, an incredibly diverse array of styles can be found in the college game. On one end of the spectrum, teams like Missouri play four guards and pressure the ball 94 feet for 48 minutes, on the other, teams like Wisconsin run a deliberate motion offense, trying to minimize the number of possessions and shoot at the very end of the shot-clock.

In the NBA, the players are too good for the “40 Minutes of Hell” system (which Mike Anderson has brought to Missouri and Arkansas in the last few years) to be successful. Like Mike Leach’s bizarre pass-happy offense in college football, Anderson’s system, which he learned as a member of Nolan Richardson’s staff in Arkansas in the 1990’s, has philosophical holes that professional athletes can exploit. Nevertheless, that doesn’t make them any less entertaining on the collegiate level.

And with 68 teams set to compete in the NCAA Tournament, there are a lot more surprises in the college game. Even programs ranked in the top-15 like Murray State have barely been on national TV this season.

We have a pretty good idea of how teams like the Pacers and the 76ers match up with the top of the Eastern Conference but not whether an undersized Murray State squad can handle the size of an elite team from a Power Six conference. It’s an open question how Isaiah Canaan’s speed and athleticism translates outside of the Ohio Valley Conference. Non-conference play in college basketball generally ends in late December, so it’s almost impossible to gauge how younger teams like Texas, Washington and Tennessee who have found their groove in the last two months will fare in March.

In the NBA, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Chicago, Miami and Oklahoma City aren’t three of the final four teams left in the playoffs. In the NCAA, as many as two dozen teams have a legitimate shot at making a run at the Final Four.

Of course, in terms of entertainment, none of this makes the NCAA necessarily better or worse than the NBA, just different. But, as Posnanski writes, there’s something to be said for the concept of “different” in the modern sports world. Basketball fans of all stripes should enjoy March Madness; the NBA will still be here in a few weeks.

Big Ten: Ohio St. beat Michigan St. to force a three-way tie for the Big Ten regular season title. (Michigan also shared the crown.) You get so used to watching games decided by three-pointers and driving guards, but in the final ten minutes this game was decided in the low-post. That should favor the Spartans. Besides Draymond Green, Michigan St. has three players in Derrick Nix, Branden Dawson and Adreian Payne with phenomenal offensive rebounding numbers, and the Spartans tend to overwhelm teams on the interior. And Derrick Nix was up to the challenge in this game with some brilliant post moves.

But the Buckeyes somehow matched the Spartans toughness in the paint. With Jared Sullinger in foul trouble, Evan Ravenel forced his way to the basket and refused to be intimidated. And at the end of the game, when no one else could keep Draymond Green out of the lane, Ravenel came back off the bench and forced Green into a fade-away jumper that essentially decided the game. William Buford is going to get a lot of credit for his hot-shooting and his game-winning jumper with 1 second left, but Ravenel’s defensive stop on Green was the play-of-the-game.

ACC: North Carolina beat Duke to win the outright ACC title, and in the process the Tar Heels became only the second team this season to hold Duke under one point per possession. (Ohio St. was the other.) With Duke’s defensive problems this year, they aren’t going to beat anyone if they shoot like they did in the first half on Saturday.

SEC: Did anyone expect Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt to force a three-way tie for second place in the SEC? Did anyone expect Tennessee to sneak back into the bubble discussion? I sure did not, and that is why I left them out of Thursday’s injury split column. But since Jarnell Stokes became eligible for the second semester, Tennessee has been playing like the 34th best team in the nation. Part of what fascinates me about Stokes' splits is that in his debut he was a great offensive weapon but seemed confused defensively. But since that time he has struggled with free throw and turnovers, and basically earned his keep as a defensive stopper. Stokes block rate and steal rate are now tops on Tennessee among regular rotation players, and as the overall data shows, Tennessee has grown into a dominant defensive team with Stokes in the lineup:

(Does not include game against Chaminade.)

Big East: Marquette beat Georgetown to claim the 2-seed in the Big East tournament. The Golden Eagles had a free throw rate of 90.0 in the win, meaning they earned 9 FTA for every 10 FGA in the game. That may seem exceptionally high (and it was a season high for Marquette), but it wasn’t the best in the nation this year. Gonzaga had a free throw rate of 107.3 vs BYU on February 23rd.

Big 12: Iowa St. beat Baylor to force a tie for third place and win the 3-seed in the Big 12 tournament. Despite using a lineup that spreads the floor (four perimeter players around Royce White), and despite Baylor’s highly ranked post prospects, Iowa St. won the offensive rebounding battle. It often seems like Pierre Jackson is the only player on Baylor with any toughness and he did not go down without a fight, scoring 35 points for the Bears. But Jackson couldn’t win the game by himself, and Baylor’s late season swoon continues.

Punching Tickets

Matt Norlander of CBS Sports was kind enough to have me on his podcast on Friday. One thing we discussed was how Championship Week gives many players their one moment in the sun. Win or lose, Illinois St.’s Tyler Brown made a driving lay-up to help send the MVC championship into OT and a three pointer just before half-time on national TV. And no one can ever take that game-tape away from him.

But let’s face it, these non-BCS conference finals are so much better when there is a potential bid-thief involved. NC-Asheville beating VMI was nice for those schools. And Belmont coming back to beat Florida-Gulf Coast made the NCAA field a little tougher. But when an Illinois St. win shrinks the bubble by one slot, and Creighton needs 33 points from Doug McDermott to beat Illinois St. in OT, that is a special game. And Murray St.’s comeback from seven points down to avenge their only loss of the season was equally intriguing. Those two games are just a taste of what is to come:

Week Ahead

Monday

- Drexel plays VCU in the CAA tournament final. Drexel was my preseason pick to win the CAA and they ultimately won the regular season title. Everyone knows VCU from their incredible Final Four run last year. You will hear people say ad naseum how the loser of this game deserves an NCAA bid, but with the weakness of the CAA, only a win ensures anything.

- Gonzaga plays St. Mary’s in the WCC tournament final in a game that is much less fascinating. Both teams are in the NCAA field no matter what, so this game is just about NCAA seeding.

- Also, Davidson faces Western Carolina in the Southern Conference title game, and Fairfield plays Loyola (Md) in the MAAC title game. This weekend Fairfield knocked off MAAC regular season champion Iona which means we will have to look for the incredible passing of Scott Machado in the NIT. I saw Fairfield down in Orlando and Ryan Olander is a legit big-man who can guard BCS-level teams in the NCAA tournament. His shot-blocking is one of the reasons Fairfield has one of the top defensive teams in the country. (If the name sounds familiar, Ryan’s brother Tyler plays for UConn.) Fairfield also has Boston College transfer Rakim Sanders, so for a four-seed in a mid-major league, this is a very intriguing team. And by beating Iona in the MAAC tournament, they earned my respect.

Tuesday

Big East Tournament Printable Bracket, March 6-10

The Big East tournament begins with two clear bubble teams in action. Connecticut and Seton Hall both finished with losing records in the Big East, and with Seton Hall ending the season with losses to Rutgers and DePaul, the Pirates desperately need to get things back on track at Madison Square Garden. Amazingly the tournament kicks off with Connecticut vs DePaul for the second year in a row. Last year UConn was in the exact same spot and a win over DePaul kick-started an 11 game winning streak for the Huskies.

A10 Tournament Printable Bracket, March 6, 9-11

Temple, St. Louis and Xavier are getting all the attention, but I get the feeling we are going to see a surprise team emerge in the A10. And it might even happen as an at-large. Right now 8 of the 14 schools in the league count as Top 100 wins and that means there are plenty of teams with decent resumes, and more quality wins to be had in the tournament. As an example, Dayton has 3 Top 50 wins and 5 more wins against 51-100, and while their 9-7 conference record doesn’t feel like an NCAA tournament team, with a run to the A-10 final, an at-large bid would suddenly become very plausible. UMass, St. Joe’s, La Salle, and Dayton all get started Tuesday night, and all are intriguing dark horse candidates.

- Penn plays at Princeton. If the Quakers win they will force a one-game playoff with Harvard. If the Quakers lose, Harvard wins the Ivy League’s auto-bid.

- Detroit plays Valparaiso for the Horizon league title. Surprisingly, Butler is not playing in this game and the two-time national runner-up will not be in the NCAA tournament this season. Detroit was my preseason pick to win the Horizon league but Valparaiso won the regular season title.

- The Summit league and Sun Belt will also crown tournament champions.

Wednesday

- The Big East tournament continues. West Virginia should be in the NCAA tournament (especially when you look at their non-conference resume), but if it comes down to a comparison with UConn, the last thing the Mountaineers want is a head-to-head loss to end the year. South Florida will also be in action in the evening session. South Florida’s Big East record is inflated because they played Pitt, Villanova, and Providence twice and none of the teams with winning records twice, but 12-6 in a major conference is still impressive. I’ve argued that you have to discount USF’s non-conference record due to the absence of multiple starters, and I think USF and Washington (out of the Pac-12) have very similar resumes when you put them side-by-side.

- The Big 12, Pac-12, and CUSA tournament also get started. Even though there are no real bubble implications on the opening day for these leagues, that just means that every team is fighting for its NCAA tournament life. Seeing UCLA play a one-and-done, win-or-go-home game for the NCAA tournament is always intriguing.

Big 12 Tournament Printable Bracket, March 7-10

Pac-12 Tournament, March 7-10

CUSA Tournament Printable Bracket, March 7-10

- The Big Sky, NEC, and Patriot Leagues all crown tournament champs.

Thursday

If you take time off work on Thursday and Friday during the NCAA tournament to watch basketball, I highly recommend you take off work this day. All the major conferences have 4 games going on, and it is impossible not to see some jaw-dropping results and buzzer beaters on this day. These conferences finally get started:

MWC Tournament Printable Bracket, March 8-10

Colorado St.’s RPI is inflated because they have only played four teams with an RPI over 200. They definitely have work to do starting Thursday afternoon.

ACC Tournament Printable Bracket, March 8-11

On Sunday, Virginia’s Darion Atkins blew a dunk with four seconds left in a tie-game, but Virginia held on to beat Maryland in OT. That was huge because it gave Virginia a bye in the ACC tournament and no team has ever won four games in four days in the ACC tourney. NC State and Miami (FL) open up on Thursday desperately needing wins if they want to make the NCAA field.

Big Ten Tournament Printable Bracket, March 8-11

Northwestern is the lone Big Ten bubble team, but the tournament broke in a favorable fashion for the Cats because they potentially face Michigan in the second round instead of Michigan St. or Ohio St. After losing in OT to the Wolverines in Evanston, Northwestern may need to get revenge to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. But first they have to beat Minnesota on Thursday.

SEC Tournament Printable Bracket

In the old divisional set-up 9-7 Alabama and 8-8 Mississippi St. would have earned byes and Florida and Vanderbilt would be playing on Day 1. But under the new standards, Mississippi St. plays a dangerous Georgia team and Alabama must open up against a South Carolina team that has nothing to play for and can play fast-and-loose.

- Texas vs Iowa St. in the Big 12 quarterfinal could be one of the best games of the weekend. The Longhorns desperately need another win over a quality team and Iowa St. has been playing incredible basketball lately. Baylor vs Kansas St. is equally good, if only to see if Baylor can get any momentum or if the early season undefeated streak is wasted.

- Washington, Cal and Arizona all lost this last weekend, so the Pac-12 quarterfinals are quite intriguing. None of these teams can afford to lose their opening game.

Friday

This might be the best night of basketball of the whole year. You won’t get nearly as many quality match-ups on any NCAA tournament day as you do on this day.

Saturday

This is usually what I call panic day. The ACC, Big Ten, SEC and A10 will almost certainly have an unexpected team in the semifinals, and if that team wins it all, the bubble shrinks by one slot.

- The Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, MWC, CUSA, MAC, WAC, SWAC, MEAC, Southland, American East and Big West all crown tournament champions.

Regarding the Big West, Long Beach St. has an impressive non-conference strength-of-schedule, but not a lot of quality wins in those games. They were rolling through the BW regular season, but suffered their first conference loss this last weekend. That may not seem like a big deal, but one of the best things Long Beach St. had going for them was the long winning streak, and now they better hope they do well in the Big West tournament.

Sunday

The ACC, SEC, A10, and Big Ten all crown tournament champions and the greatest hour in television, the NCAA selection show, arrives.