Last fall on Basketball Prospectus I introduced the first ever lineup-based statistical model. Today, I use that model to project the 2013-2014 ACC college basketball standings:

Proj CW, CL = Projected conference wins and losses

Proj Off, Def = Projected points scored and allowed per 100 possessions against an average D1 team on a neutral floor

Top 100 = Number of players ranked in the RSCI Top 100 out of high school who are on the roster 

Ret Min, Ret Poss = Returning minutes and possessions

Last Off, Last Def = Last year’s offense and defense

Duke: Quinn Cook, Andre Dawkins, Rasheed Sulaimon, Mississippi St. transfer Rodney Hood, Amile Jefferson, #2 recruit Jabari Parker. Yes, Duke is going to be dominant again.

North Carolina: Marcus Paige, PJ Hairston, Leslie McDonald, James McAdoo, and four high potential young forwards (either ready to make the sophomore leap or contribute from day one) should make for a dominant lineup.

Virginia: At the start of April I wrote this: “Everything is coming together for Virginia. They have their three top scorers (really the only guys who scored at all) back from last year. Former Top 100 recruit Mike Tobey should be ready for that sophomore year leap in production. They add depth with South Carolina transfer Anthony Gill. Malcolm Brogdon (who missed the entire season) and Darion Atkins should be back healthy. And Virginia played very good basketball in conference games last year.” The only question mark is point-guard. London Perrantes, Teven Jones, and/or Devon Hall have to come through for this team to meet its expectations. And while at #97 ESPN recruit Perrantes isn’t a sure thing, the model thinks he will easily exceed the efficiency of Jontel Evans. Evans couldn’t shoot at all last year and posted an 83.4 ORtg. When a team loses its most inefficient players and has solid replacements coming in, that team should be substantially improved.

Syracuse: Unfortunately, Syracuse seems poised for another brutal offensive year. There were basically only four guys on the team that could score last year, and three of them are gone. The real problem is the lack of depth on the perimeter. My model has Duke transfer Michael Gbinije playing some minutes at the shooting-guard spot, but as Georgetown saw last year when they tried to play Otto Porter at that spot, a four forward lineup doesn’t have the right spacing. This is especially true given that among Syracuse’s returning forwards only CJ Fair has a true jump shot.

That means Syracuse will have to give a lot of minute to Tyler Ennis, Trevor Cooney, and Ron Patterson. Tyler Ennis might have a higher recruiting rank than Virginia’s London Perrantes, but he still isn’t a guaranteed star where he is rated. And Trevor Cooney was brutal last season. While the model predicts Cooney will be better this year, he certainly can’t be counted on to be a star. And Syracuse hasn’t had much success utilizing unranked freshmen right of the bat which isn’t good for Ron Patterson’s expectations.

DaJuan Coleman might become a high scorer next year, but it is a catch-22. While he is the only returning player who was a high volume shooter, he wasn’t very efficient (89.1 ORtg) last year. Part of that was an injury issue, but even with a fairly sizable jump in efficiency this year, he won’t be able to carry the offense. Don’t be fooled by transfer Michael Gbinije’s ORtg on Statsheet.com. He basically never played for Duke two years ago. The fact that he didn’t play says more about his expectations then whatever numbers he posted in garbage time in a few games. And don’t be fooled by Baye Moussa Keita’s efficiency either. Keita basically never shot last year. Syracuse has eight former Top 100 recruits on the roster, so they have talent. But it isn’t quite the right fit to expect a dominant offense.

Where I think the model may be wrong is not the offense, but the defense. The model is skeptical because Jim Boeheim has only had an adjusted defense below 89.0 once in his career. That one year was last season, so perhaps it will be repeatable. But Michael Carter-Williams had rare size at the PG spot. He made it brutally hard for teams like Indiana to get open looks at three and for players to make basic entry passes. If Cooney and Ennis can duplicate that, then Syracuse may be a Top 10 team.  My model expects a solid but not historic defensive performance from Syracuse.

Pittsburgh: This is going to sound odd, but Pittsburgh probably has a better starting rotation than Syracuse. Talib Zanna was Pittsburgh’s best forward last season. James Robinson was impressive as a first-year PG, and Lamar Patterson was a do-everything player. Meanwhile, JJ Moore is back and he was Pittsburgh’s most efficient bench player. The team also adds highly ranked freshman recruit Mike Young at forward. The real weakness for Pittsburgh is going to be depth. After those five guys, there is a serious drop-off. But keep in mind that Jamie Dixon has only finished with more than six conference losses once in his career. That isn’t going to change even in a stacked ACC.

Maryland: Replacing Alex Len won’t be easy, but the combination of Shaquille Cleare and Charles Mitchell’s development, combined with the addition of a lights out perimeter shooting forward (Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz) should make it palatable. Pe’shon Howard was so inefficient at the PG slot that his departure is probably addition by subtraction.

Notre Dame: For those of you keeping track, despite being listed as seniors last year, Garrick Sherman and Tom Knight are coming back. I am most interested to see how Mike Brey utilizes freshmen Demetrius Jackson. Brey usually has a short-leash with freshmen. The exception was Luke Harangody, and Jackson might just be that kind of freshmen. What is holding Notre Dame back is that Mike Brey is not an elite defensive coach. And that means the loss of a premiere defensive rebounder like Jack Cooley is a real problem.

Florida St.: Somehow, despite a horrible non-conference season, and terrible margin-of-victory numbers, the Seminoles won nine ACC games last year. I expect Florida St.’s offense and defense to be substantially better than last year. But I don’t expect them to match last year’s exceptional luck. And in an improved ACC, I project Florida St. as a 9-9 team. They will be better, but they might not have more conference wins to show for it.

Of course, if Andrew Wiggins matriculates, this expectation will be much higher.

Looking back, it is hard to believe how dreadful Florida St. played at times last season. The Seminoles scored 36 against Virginia and an even more embarrassing 46 against defensively challenged Wake Forest.  Highly rated freshman Montay Brandon had one of those avert-your-eyes awful seasons. It was amazing how much Leonard Hamilton stuck with him despite his clear offensive struggles. Brandon’s poor performance shows the difference between an old-school coach and a new-school coach. Buzz Williams and Brad Stevens would have never let a player like Brandon waste so many possessions.

But despite these offensive concerns, the real problem was the defense. How did one of the top defensive coaches suddenly forget what he was doing? I think the injury to Ian Miller had a lot to do with it, but the overall team performance was head-scratching. With a healthy Ian Miller, I predict a substantial bounce-back on both ends of the court. But it also depends on Hamilton making better lineup decisions than last season.

Boston College: Notre Dame transfer Alex Dragicevich will add to the team’s depth. But until Boston College starts playing better defense, they won’t make the tournament.

NC State: If you ask Mark Gottfried, he will admit that the lack of depth last year was frustrating. It made it hard to hold legitimate practices. But thanks to a host of defections NC State only has eight scholarship players again. One of those eight players, Jordan Vandenburg has struggled to ever earn playing time and was injured for much of last year. It is possible Vandenburg will break out as a fifth-year senior, but the expectations cannot be that high. The other seven players (including LSU transfer Ralston Turner and JUCO addition Desmond Lee) should all be solid players. But at this point, you have to bank on extreme luck to even put together a decent rotation. No one can get injured. None of the prized recruits can be a bust.

And Mark Gottfried hasn’t exactly been the kind of guy to bring a new crop of recruits together and play top defense right away. NC State probably has a higher upside than some of the teams listed ahead of them, but the downside risk is pretty high too. If everyone (but Vandenburg) comes back, this team will be in much better shape in 2014-15.

Wake Forest: Wait, why is Jeff Bzdelik still the head coach? Senior Travis McKie deserves better.

Georgia Tech: Marcus George-Hunt and Robert Carter were solid scorers as freshman last season and as highly ranked high school recruits, there is no reason to think they won’t make the sophomore leap and become stars this year. Overall Georgia Tech’s offense would be rated higher, but there is a major question mark at the PG slot. Solomon Poole wasn’t ready last year, but the alternatives Corey Heyward and Travis Jorgenson don’t have obvious pedigrees either. Without a strong point-guard and with several offensive liabilities in the rotation, the offense will still be bad.

Clemson: Given that they lose their two best players and have zero players who were elite high school recruits on their roster, I think a lot of preseason predictions will have them even lower than this. There really isn’t anyone on the roster who looks like a likely offensive star. (The only good news is that Clemson was young last year and the sophomore leap should help at least a couple of their freshmen become solid players.) But let’s face it, this is going to be an ugly team to watch. The only reason the model doesn’t have Clemson lower is because of Brad Brownell’s ability to teach defense.

Miami: Give Jim Larranaga credit for what Miami did last year, but this is a rebuilding year. This team was just devastated by graduations and Shane Larkin’s early entry into the draft. I think the lineup-based model may be a little too pessimistic. But the best-case scenario here is probably what Vanderbilt did in the SEC last year.  Don’t count on much from guys like Tony Jekiri and Erik Swoope. Guys who shoot that little rarely become big scorers. I feel bad for Rion Brown.

Virginia Tech: Goodbye Erick Green. Yep, next year isn’t going to be any better.

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Conference Performance

There are four Big Ten teams in the Sweet Sixteen and Charles Barkley is eating crow. But has the Big Ten done anything yet? After all, the Big Ten earned a lot of highly protected seeds in the tournament. As I have done in previous years, today I look at which conferences have actually exceeded seed expectations.  What are seed expectations? Based on past tournaments, here are how many games each seed has traditionally won in the field of 64:

(I’m ignoring the opening round. For teams that played in the opening round, I give them half-the expectation. So La Salle was expected to win 0.13 games in the round of 64.)

The next table shows how many wins each conference should have been expected to get in this tournament based on seeding, and how many wins each conference has so far. I also list the number of teams still alive in the tournament.

The Big Ten needs just two more wins to exceed traditional seed expectations, and with four teams still alive, that seems quite plausible. The A10, Pac-12, SEC and MVC have already exceeded expectations in the tournament.

The Big 12 has been the biggest disappointment in the tournament by far. With just three wins through two rounds, even if Kansas wins the national title, the league cannot match pre-tournament expectations. The Big East has also been a big disappointment. While the league was a perfect 3-0 in the round of 32, it was only 3-5 in the previous round. Other disappointments include the WCC and MWC.

Of course, dominating the early rounds of the tournament may not mean that much if the Big Ten doesn’t win a national title.

Ice Water in His Veins

Jim Nance, “Can we just have great games the rest of the tournament?” Apparently that wasn’t too much to ask. Sunday was easily the best day of the tournament so far.

We start in Dayton. Ohio St.’s Aaron Craft was not having a perfect game. He missed the front end of two one-and-ones. He went for a steal, but couldn’t corral it, which caused his teammate to commit a foul. And as he dribbled the ball in a tie game in the final seconds, it seemed like he was wasting too much time. Was there enough time to get to the rim? Was there enough time to kick to a teammate? Craft was only a 29 percent three-point shooter and he probably shouldn’t force a shot here. It didn’t matter. With ice water in his veins Craft nailed the buzzer beating three. It wasn’t clear if that was the first choice. But when Iowa St. switched and left Georges Niang on Craft, and when Niang sagged bad to prevent the drive, Craft stepped up with the buzzer beating shot.

Meanwhile, Temple seemed to have the perfect game-plan to beat Indiana. As Wisconsin had proven, the way you frustrate Indiana is by slowing the game down. I thought a sequence with nine minutes left in the second half showed it perfectly. Jordan Hulls (injured and heroically returning to action with a vest on to protect his injured shoulder) hit a huge three pointer to pull Indiana within one point. And it seemed like Indiana was about to have one of its patented blitzes. But with two players trapping the ball mid-court, Temple didn’t panic. They passed the ball around the perimeter and then made the extra pass to get TJ Dileo a look at a lay-up. Dileo missed, but grabbed his own rebound and kicked it out. Then Temple passed on two great looks at jump shots and fed Anthony Lee for a beautiful lay-up. By making at least 3 extra passes on the possession, Temple worked 44 seconds off the clock, scored, and prevented Indiana from gaining any rhythm offensively.

But then something changed. While Indiana had been stymied by the slow pace against Butler, Minnesota, and Wisconsin twice, the Hoosiers refused to let it happen again.  Zeller and Oladipo worked their way to the free throw line to give Indiana the lead. And then, in a must-score situation (not wanting to hand a one point lead to Temple with the chance at the final shot), Victor Oladipo rose to the occasion. Oladipo is a player who makes less than one three point shot per game. But with ice water in his veins, Oladipo nailed a three that made the margin 4 points and sealed the Hoosiers victory.

Elsewhere, ACC champion Miami was not having a vintage day. After some early success feeding Tonye Jekiri (of all people), point guard Shane Larkin was not having much success feeding his big players for easy shots. And with Durand Scott struggling, it seemed like Illinois might be prepared to pull the upset. Tracy Abrams had just drove for a wide-open lay-up after Larkin made a huge mistake defensively and followed behind a screen. And Brandon Paul had just followed it up with a huge drive for a dunk to give Illinois the lead. And that’s when Shane Larkin, with ice water in his veins did it again. The ACC player-of-the-year stepped back for a three point attempt and nailed it to give his team the lead. Free throws sealed it.

And what about La Salle. After Ole Miss had started to dictate its advantage in the paint following layups by Nick Williams and Reginald Buckner, the Ole Miss lead had swelled to 5 with just 4:15 left. That’s when La Salle’s Sam Mills caught the ball in transition and nailed a three pointer while drawing contact. It looked like a chance for a four point play, but it turned into a five point play when Mills’ missed free throw was rebounded and put-back in by teammate Jerrell Wright. In a moment’s time, the five point lead was gone. And in the final seconds, La Salle seized the moment.

Seth Greenberg loved to use short rotations at Virginia Tech. He believed it gave him the best chance to win. But that made a player like Tyrone Garland the victim. Garland played just 10 minutes per game as a sophomore at Virginia Tech, (at least in part because of his poor shooting numbers.) But Garland believed he had so much more to give. He left Virginia Tech mid-semester and joined La Salle at mid-season this year. And as I noted three weeks ago, La Salle became a better team with Garland in the lineup. They went from being something near the 63rd best team in the nation, to one of the nation’s Top 40. But Garland still wasn’t a great three point shooter. The turnaround, if anywhere, was in La Salle’s defense. And so it came down to the final seconds. La Salle drove and kicked the ball out to Garland. Almost everyone takes the three point shot in that opportunity. And even if it misses, there is a chance for an offensive rebound. But Garland is not a great outside shooter. So without the above ice water, he chose the smart play. He drove to the right side of the key, hung in the air, and banked home the game winning shot.

Four of the best games of the tournament in one day, and I haven’t even talked about the first 15-seed in NCAA tournament history advancing to the Sweet 16 yet.

Other Notes

-During the Illinois-Miami game Nnanna Egwu tried to back down Reggie Johnson in the post. “He might as well have tried to push over the stanchion.”

-I thought Charles Barkley nailed it regarding Ben Howland leaving UCLA. “Ben Howland is a good coach. He doesn’t deserve to be fired. But it is hard enough to win when everyone is on your side. When everybody wants you out of there, it is just best to move on.”

-I thought it was amazing how effective Iowa St. was at drawing fouls on Ohio St. The Buckeyes almost never foul, but Iowa St. managed to get enough contact to get in the bonus much earlier than expected in both halves.

-We all hate the elbowing rule. But I thought the referees got it wrong when they called James McAdoo’s elbow of Jeff Withey inadvertent contact. I saw the same play called a foul on at least two other occasions in the round of 64, and this seemed to be a case where the referees missed the initial call and didn’t want to admit they were wrong. McAdoo picking up three in the first half could have completely changed the game.

But in many ways, it was also perfect basketball karma. No one has been winning in this tournament by getting things handed to them. As Florida Gulf Coast’s Sherwood Brown said in his pre-game introduction before the Georgetown game, “They aren’t going to give it to us, we have to take it.” In the first half against North Carolina, Kansas (and Jeff Withey) were asking for someone to give them the win against North Carolina. And Withey begging for a flagrant call really summed it up perfectly. That was why North Carolina led 30-21 at halftime.

But when Travis Releford decided he wanted the game, and when Kansas decided they were not going to give up another easy look the rest of the game, that was when Kansas advanced to the Sweet Sixteen.

-What is it with potential draft prospects flopping in this tournament? Kansas phenom Ben McLemore looked like a deer in the headlights against Western Kentucky in the first round, but that was nothing compared to his 0-9 performance against North Carolina that had him riding the pine. Kansas made it to the Sweet Sixteen without McLemore playing well, but they won’t make it much further if the freshman superstar doesn’t start playing better.

-On paper, Creigthon-Duke sounded like a fun offensive match-up between two great three-point shooting teams. But no one denies three-point attempts like Duke and the game didn’t live up to the hype.

-Florida Gulf Coast has now shredded two of the Top 15 defenses in the country. This is scary. They also lead the nation in crazy late-game dunks. If Brett Comer had dunked late in the game, I don’t know what would have happened to the world.

Thank You Seniors

I wish every tournament game could be close so every senior could go out with a few more hero plays.

-I feel so bad for Temple senior Scootie Randall putting up an 0-for-12 performance. He heroically returned from a knee injury and was Temple’s second leading scorer this season. But his career ends with a nightmare game, and a lot of fingers pointing in his direction since the loss was so close.

-Meanwhile Minnesota senior Trevor Mbawke never really regained his inside dominance after tearing his ACL last season. While he did get one nice dunk-and-one on an airball late in the Gophers loss to Florida, one of the Big Ten’s all-time most physical players didn’t really go out in style. Minnesota senior Rodney Williams also chipped in one relatively meaningless dunk late in the game against Florida. For a player whose heroic dunks have often been the only reason to watch Minnesota play, I had hoped for one more highlight reel. (Rodney Williams put-back dunk against Florida St. remains my personal favorite because of how far back he had to go to get the ball.)

That said, I hope Minnesota fans still feel like Mbakwe and Williams contributed something to the program. The Gophers are not completely lacking tradition. But after an academic scandal removed their 1997 Bobby Jackson Final Four run from the record book, it has been a long road back. Dan Monson was never able to overcome the recruiting sanctions. And Tubby Smith is a quality coach, but one who can’t quite match the Thad Matta’s and Tom Izzo’s in the Big Ten. This is especially true given his lack of a practice facility on campus which hurts Minnesota’s recruiting.

Minnesota doesn’t start Top 100 recruits up and down the lineup. They hope to win when the seniors all click. Things didn’t click this year for Mbakwe and Williams as they struggle to an 8-10 conference finish in a year where they almost certainly should have gone 10-8 or better. But the Gophers did restore the tradition of winning in the NCAA tournament. And when a team has a drought of 16 years, that shouldn’t be overlooked.

-Similarly, Mississippi senior Reginald Buckner, one of the school’s all-time best shot-blockers, may have wished he could get a re-do on the last second loss to La Salle and get a better chance to deflect Garland’s shot. He may view the loss to the 13 seed as a bit of a disappointment. But for an Ole Miss team that hadn’t won a tournament game since 2001 this was an off-the-charts great year. Winning the SEC tournament title, and earning a tournament win against Wisconsin is an extremely special accomplishment. Rebel pride has clearly been restored.

-If seniors have to lose, I at least prefer for them to be at their best. Illinois senior Tyler Griffey lost his job as a starter three times in his career. The truth is that he was not meant to be a Big Ten player. He was a perfect stretch four, but he couldn’t live up to the brutal physicality of the Big Ten. But Griffey hit a buzzer beater to beat Gardner Webb. He made a buzzer-beater to defeat #1 Indiana. And the player most known for his outside shooting hit four big threes against Miami in the near upset. Even in the loss, that is how a senior should go out, by doing what he does best.

Expected Wins in Field of 64

As I do every day of the tournament, I once again track the expected wins (based on the Pomeroy Rankings) and how these change.

Based on their own win, Florida is now expected to win an additional 0.60 games in the tournament. And based on other events (namely Florida Gulf Coast advancing), that added another 0.18 to Florida’s expectation. (Florida would have been heavily favored against San Diego St. too.)

Sunday’s biggest loser is obviously San Diego St. which let a 15 seed advance to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time. But Ole Miss also let a real opportunity slip away, especially since Gonzaga did not make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Michigan and Michigan St. didn’t play but saw their odds fall slightly with Kansas and Duke advancing. 

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Oregon wins Pac-12 Tournament

Once again, I have to turn this over to Bill Walton:

On the loss of Jordan Adams, “Shabazz Muhammad, he’ll get more shots, and what could be better than that?”

“The game needs a rhythm, it needs a flow. Every possession has been a turnover.”

Dave Pasch, “I don’t know if you were watching the games today at your pool party.” Bill Walton, “I was at the pool party, there was plenty to see there.”

“After as poor a start as you could possibly have, the Ducks have found their way on the Oregon Trail. Lewis and Clark would be so proud.”

“I love little fast guys. I used to be one. And then I turned 14. And hurt my knee.”

Shabazz Muhammad is sitting with two personal fouls in the first half. Pasch “So you disagree with the decision to sit him?” Walton, “Close enough.” Pasch, “Is that a yes or no?” Next Walton suggests Muhammad could just substitute himself back in. “Just walk to the scorer’s table and ask to replace somebody.” Pasch, “Would John Wooden have let you get away with that?” Walton, “I don’t remember sitting on the bench.”

“Nobody in this tournament has been able to keep any of the guards in front of them.” Ah, but that is why the Pac-12 is so fun to watch.

“I think they should play every game here in Las Vegas forever.”

“Kyle Anderson isn’t one of those guys with the bulging veins who can push everyone around, he is just a basketball player – I love it.”

“There is a way through, Lewis and Clark were right!” And the Pac-12 tournament title goes to Oregon.

Louisville wins Big East Tournament

So that is what a 27-3 run looks like.

My favorite note from the broadcast:

When Jim Larranaga left George Mason for Miami FL, Luke Hancock wanted out. Rick Pitino called and asked Larranaga about Hancock’s game. “If you need a big bucket, he is your man. If you need a big rebound, he is your man. If you need someone to play defense, he isn’t your man.” But Hancock did force a key turnover during Louisville’s big run, and I have rarely seen Rick Pitino so happy.

As sad as I am to see the Big East tournament come to the end, it certainly isn’t the end of the world. I’m looking forward to a crazy ACC tournament semifinal in two years when Syracuse, Louisville, Duke, and North Carolina all advance to the Final Four. Conference realignment is tough, but not every future scenario is bad.

Kansas wins Big 12 Tournament

Perry Ellis shot 23 of 30 in the final four games of the season. Meanwhile Naadir Tharpe dished 8 assists against Iowa St. and had a season high 12 points against Kansas St. in the Big 12 final. The best thing about players breaking out late in the year is that the scouting report isn’t out on them. For players that break out in November and December, there are plenty of conference games to analyze their game and look for weakness. When a player starts shining late in the year, it is extremely hard to game plan for because you haven’t seen what works best to slow them down.

Ole Miss wins SEC Tournament

Marshall Henderson is a loose cannon. The factoid about how he plays better in the second half because Andy Kennedy is on the same side of the court as him and can shout at him and keep him under control is one of the scariest factoids I’ve heard all year. And his Gator axe-move with his team just leading by 6 points with 8 minutes left could have drawn a technical. At minimum it was horrible judgment. But when you are a Mississippi fan and you haven’t won the SEC in 30 years, or made the tournament under Andy Kennedy, Henderson is your favorite player in the world.

Miami wins the ACC Tournament

Shane Larkin didn’t show up anywhere on Ken Pomeroy’s player-of-the-year ballot (in part because he only uses 21% of the Hurricanes possessions). But there is no doubt he is the difference between Miami being an NIT team and an ACC champion. Jim Larranaga handed him the keys to the team late last season, and he has thrived in every big moment. When the Boston College game was tight on the Friday, he was there hitting the pull-ahead three point shot. When his team needed a bucket to stay ahead of NC State and North Carolina, there he was making the perfect assist. And when those teams turned up the pressure to try to get back in the game, he avoided the costly turnover. Finally, his free throw shooting sealed both weekend games without a hiccup. In February and March, Larkin has only posted an ORtg below 100 in one game. He clearly has the heart of a champion.

Ohio St. wins the Big Ten Tournament

Maybe I’m just grumpy after another Wisconsin game in the 40’s. But the Big Ten tournament made me more angry than excited this year.

It started on Friday, when Mike Tirico and Dan Dakich noted that after speaking to the Indiana staff, the feeling was that the conference tournament was not that important. The real test of accomplishment was winning the outright regular season title. No one disagrees with that in principle. (Except Steve Alford. He still thinks he won a Big Ten title thanks to Iowa’s tournament win.) But when Indiana lost in the semifinals you could tell in Tom Crean’s voice that the Big Ten tournament just wasn’t that important to him. He said he would have “liked” to win, but that the Hoosier’s overall body of work spoke for itself. You don’t win key games in March without some chip on your shoulder. Wisconsin felt they were robbed of a regular season title. Indiana never had to come to Wisconsin and play in their building. They blew a late home game against Purdue. They wanted it. Ohio St. felt like they were always an after-thought all season after spending most of the season in 5^th place in the league. Those teams wanted to prove they were legitimate on the national stage. And Crean’s under-estimate of the conference tournament is likely why Louisville will be playing in Indianapolis in the Sweet Sixteen and not Indiana.

I don’t understand why Big Ten coaches don’t value this tournament more. Tom Izzo is a fabulous NCAA tournament coach, but his teams are more likely to struggle to bubble team’s on Friday night of the Big Ten tournament than they are to bring home a Big Ten Tournament title. Indiana still has never won the tournament. Until those marquee names start making this tournament into a big deal, it will never be as fun as the other conference clashes. It obviously hurts that the Big Ten tournament final is often too late to count as part of the selection process. But as many have said, you only have so many chances in life to cut down the nets and win a title.

Congratulations to Ohio St. for winning their 5^th Big Ten title, the most of any team. But too bad Thad Matta isn’t John Thompson Jr. I’d love for Matta to boast how Ohio St. owns the Big Ten tournament. Then this thing might start to mean something.

The Pac-12 has brought cool back with Bill Walton and Las Vegas. The Big East will still have Madison Square Garden (even if it doesn’t have Syracuse.) The new ACC will have the most exciting tournament in the land. The Big Ten can do better.