With a 13-3 record, Temple won the 2012 Atlantic-10 regular season championship. Saint Louis finished in second place with a 12-4 record, followed by Xavier and St. Bonaventure at 10-6 apiece.

How did the conference rank in terms of our Floor Impact Counter statistical rankings?

In order to determine our team rankings, we calculate the difference between a team's own FIC per game and their opponents' FIC for the entire conference season.

The FIC is a single statistical measurement that encompasses things such as scoring efficiency, rebounding, blocked shots, etc. Its purpose is to combine the box score into one statistic, both on a team level and for players.

1. Temple: 16.27  
2. Saint Louis: 12.43  
3. St. Bonaventure: 11.73  
4. Saint Joseph's: 6.02  
5. Dayton: 5.23  
6. Xavier: 5.00  
7. Massachusetts: 0.92  
8. La Salle: -0.28  
9. Richmond: -0.56  
10. George Washington: -4.59  
11. Duquesne: -7.73  
12. Charlotte: -7.97  
13. Rhode Island: -13.34  
14. Fordham: -23.12

Chris Gaston: Gaston is an intriguing prospect with a lot of room for growth. While he has carried his Fordham squad over the past two seasons, he must demonstrate a refined perimeter shot to be considered at the next level. As it currently stands, he has the requisite athleticism to crash the boards (34^th in the nation in Defensive Rebounding %) and attack the basket. At this stage, Gaston gets to the line very often (6^th in the A-10 in Fouls Drawn), but rarely converts on these opportunities. (51.7% FT% a year ago)  If he can develop some semblance of an outside shot and simultaneously improve his free throw shooting, Gaston has a chance to make the jump to the professional level. With that said, it will be an uphill battle.

Terrell Vinson: After suffering through foot injuries in his sophomore campaign, Terrell Vinson is looking to bounce back and lead his UMass club to a top 5 finish in conference play. With the loss of offensive focal point Anthony Gurley, the Minutemen are going to lean on the efforts of Vinson and wing Freddie Riley to provide the brunt of UMass’s scoring attack. And, the wiry Vinson has responded to this need by putting in the effort in the offseason to add girth. When the season begins, look for him to be featured as UMass’s top post weapon, and for him to regain the speed that he once had prior to his injury.

TJ McConnell: After an impressive showing in the Green Tree Summer League, McConnell is poised for a breakout season on a national scale. He is already one of the top true point guards in his conference, finishing 5^th in the A-10 in Assist Rate as a freshman. Further, he was efficient on the offensive end, holding the 6^th best Offensive Rating in the conference, while shooting a blistering 57.2% Effective Field Goal % from the floor. On the defensive end, McConnell was the 7^th best in the nation at Steals %. All in all, look for McConnell to earn All-Conference honors in his second season with Duquesne.

Andrew Nicholson: After an extremely impressive junior season, Nicholson has firmly positioned himself on the NBA draft radar for this coming season. This lengthy forward is an impressive athlete that got to the line at will a season ago, finishing 1^st in the A-10 in Fouls Drawn. Further, Nicholson was efficient from the field and finished 4^th in his conference in Effective Field Goal %. Nicholson is also a fairly effective shot blocker and defensive rebounder. He should be on scouts’ radars all season long and will likely hear his name called on draft night.

Tu Holloway: Holloway is one of the best returning point guards in the country. He ranked 4^th in his conference in Assist Rate and provided the necessary leadership for his squad. Further, he shot a 60.2% True Shooting %, while being forced to take roughly a fourth of his team’s shots. Moreover, he was 2^nd in the A-10 (behind Nicholson) in Fouls Drawn. All in all, he must prove to scouts that he can hit the long ball (34.5% from beyond the arc last season) in order to receive more serious NBA consideration.

Mark Lyons: Holloway’s backcourt counterpart Lyons has made some noticeable strides over the summer, and appears poised for a big season in his own right. Look for him to improve on his shooting percentages and for him to attack more off the dribble. Lyons is also an underrated passer, and he will have ample opportunity to demonstrate this aspect of his game in front of scouts, as his Xavier team is one of the ten best programs in the country entering the year.

Ramone Moore: Moore is a fairly efficient scoring guard that plays an unselfish brand of basketball. While he finished 7^th in the A-10 in Offensive Rating amongst players with at least a 24% usage, he also was able to find his teammates at the right moments. Therein, he ranked 23^rd in the conference in Assist Rate and will probably function as more of a distributor this coming season. 

Juan Fernandez: Fernandez is a big lead guard that is capable of hitting clutch shots for his team. He was rated very highly in the preseason polls, and for good reason. Fernandez is a willing passer and an efficient offensive threat despite the fact that he hit a shooting slump last year after sitting out due to some injuries. He finished 8^th in the A-10 in Assist Rate a season ago. Defensively, he has the size, but lacks the lateral quickness to defend elite level guards. This will limit his long run potential.

Tony Taylor: Taylor quietly had one of the best seasons in the A-10 last year as the lead guard for the George Washington Colonials. He distributed the ball very well, finishing 50^th in the country (and 2^nd in the A-10) in Assist Rate. Further, in doing this, he was able to get to the basket and draw contact. Look for him to excel in this area once again and to have an excellent senior season overall. And, if he can lead his team towards the top half of the standings, he should earn All Conference nominations.

Carl Jones: Jones is one of the best up and coming players in the A-10. After not receiving much hype entering his college career, Jones has managed to generate considerable buzz as the leader of his St. Joes’ squad. In his second season, Jones improved in virtually every area, becoming much more consistent from behind the arc and looking for his teammates more often. Jones shot a 48% Effective Field Goal % last season, while managing to take 27% of his team’s shots. Look for Jones to step up once again this year and to be one of the few bright spots on a depleted St. Joes roster.

Chris Johnson: With the loss of world class athlete Chris Wright, Johnson is ready to embrace a position of leadership on his Flyers squad. Functioning as a secondary option at times, Johnson was able to score the basketball efficiently, hitting a 52.0% Effective Field Goal % and earning the 3^rd best Offensive Rating overall in the conference. Further, the loss of Wright should open the door for him to become more of a rebounding presence. He was the 25^th best Defensive Rebounder in the A-10 last season, and he should only improve in this capacity this coming year. All in all, Johnson is one of the more interesting players to keep an eye on, as he appears ready to break out as Dayton’s top weapon.

Kwamain Mitchell: After a breakout sophomore campaign, Mitchell redshirted this past season because of a suspension that was levied just prior to the start of the Fall Semester. Now he is back to lead his St. Louis squad to a potential NCAA Tournament appearance. In 2010, Mitchell was very efficient at the point guard position, posting a 52.3% Effective Field Goal %. Moreover, he was a willing passer, as evinced by his 11^th best Assist Rate in the A-10. Expect him to immediately become St. Louis’s go-to option.

Mike McCall Jr.: With Mitchell redshirting in 2010-2011, McCall emerged as an intriguing point guard prospect. He finished 10^th in the A-10 in Assist Rate as a freshman. This season he will look to take some of the ball pressure off of Mitchell, and will likely play off the ball at times. Look for him to score more efficiently this season and to demonstrate his long run potential as a professional prospect.

Tyreek Duren: While Duren was fairly turnover prone in his first season, he was saddled with most of the ball handling responsibilities. Look for his decision making to improve considerably in his sophomore year, and expect him to make more of an impact on the offensive end. From the get-go, he was able to distribute the ball to his teammates, as demonstrated by his 12^th ranked Assist Rate amongst A-10 players. Duren will likely continue to develop as a facilitator, but should also look to shoot more often with the departures of Williams and Aaric Murray, both of which commanded most of the offensive touches.

Chris Braswell: The 6’9 Braswell is one of the more intriguing forward prospects in the A-10 this season. He is a capable athlete that is aggressive on both ends of the floor. Further, he is one of the better returning rebounders in the conference, finishing 11^th in the A-10 in Offensive Rebounding % and 7^th in Defensive Rebounding %. Braswell is very aggressive inside and is able to draw fouls fairly frequently. If he can convert on a higher percentage of his free throws, Braswell could be in for a breakout year.

Last fall, I used my tempo free prediction model to predict the races in the major conferences.  On Tuesday, I looked back at my predictions for the SEC, Big Ten, Pac10, and MWC. Three of those four leagues performed better than my model predicted, on average. Today, I show four more leagues, three of which have performed worse than my model predicted.

Big East Prediction

What I got right:

Most preseason magazines picked a down to the wire battle between Villanova and Pittsburgh. But my model liked Pittsburgh to win in a run-away. Early in the year, it looked like I was wrong. Nova’s defense was ranked in the top 20 and they were clearly playing well. But Villanova’s defense fell apart in the last 12 games, and the model nailed both Villanova’s adjusted offense and Villanova’s adjusted defense within 1 point.

Surprises:

The Big East was a league full of unexpected positive surprises. Let’s start with Connecticut and Kemba Walker. Despite taking a shot 10% more often when on the floor, Walker has increased his efficiency from 105 to 117. That is an extremely rare and special improvement.

But Walker is not the only point guard to play better this year. Cincinnati’s Cashmere Wright improved his offensive rating from 89 to 107 by learning to make threes and upping his assist rate. But the big key for Cincinnati is a huge improvement in turnovers forced. The team has been particularly adept at forcing steals this season and not surprisingly both the offense and defense are better.

Louisville’s defense is also substantially better than last season. Maybe you want to blame Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa for being average defenders. Maybe you want to blame Rick Pitino for being distracted by the Karen Sypher scandal last year. But something was surprisingly wrong with Louisville’s defense last season, and that did not carry over to this season.

We got a sense that Notre Dame might be able to play well without Luke Harangody when he was injured in 2010, so perhaps it should not have been a shock to see the Fighting Irish play so well this year. But to lose someone with his career numbers, and then jump to second in the Big East, counts as a bit of a surprise.

Surprise and Flop:

Seton Hall deserves credit in both categories. While Jeremy Hazell’s injury and various off-court incidents have derailed the offense, first year head coach Kevin Willard led a tremendous improvement in the Seton Hall defense.

Flops: 

I knew Oliver Purnell did not have a lot of offensive talent, but I thought he would at least get the DePaul to play tough pressure defense. Instead, DePaul’s defense fell from 119^th in the nation to 230^th in the nation and the team did not move out of the Big East cellar.

A10 Prediction

What I got right:

Temple, Xavier, and Richmond were pretty easy picks for the top of the league.

Surprises: 

Duquesne guard Bill Clark improved his ORtg from 102 to 120 by increasing his three point percentage from 28% to 39%. (Has anyone even talked about his improvement this year? This seems like a very under-the-radar story.) But the player everyone wants to credit is A10 freshman-of-the-year candidate TJ McConnell. When you look at him on the court, McConnell does not look like a star. But maybe that is how he sneaks up on people. He has one of the nation’s leading steal rates at 5.2%; he makes 40% of his threes; and he is a decent point guard too. Not a bad combination.

Flops:

Alan Major’s first year as head coach of Charlotte has been a major disaster, but it is his first season, so I’ll give him a chance to bring in his players and try to turn it around.

The real disappointment in the A10 was Dayton. Dayton was one of the most efficient teams in the league last year (even if they lost a lot of games), and the Flyers won the NIT title. The team returned its two most efficient players (Chris Johnson and Chris Wright), and had a promising newcomer (Juwan Staten). But last weekend’s loss to rival Xavier was probably a microcosm of the season. Chris Johnson was dominant and Chris Wright made some amazing plays including a fantastic block late in the game. But the bench chipped in all of three points, and the starters could not get the key stops in crunch time. And if Juwan Staten wins the A10 freshman of the year award over TJ McConnell, that is just a crime.

ACC Prediction

What I got right:

Believe it or not, I want to praise my prediction of Maryland’s efficiency margin. I know Maryland has a mediocre record in ACC play, but I picked them to have a top three efficiency margin, and they have delivered exactly that. Maryland is a lot like Illinois, Kentucky, and Washington. They win big, but lose a lot of close games.

Surprises:

I said in October that my model’s prediction for North Carolina was way too low, but let’s give North Carolina credit for getting better. And had Roy Williams not benched Larry Drew, I’m not sure the turnaround happens. It also helps that Harrison Barnes has started knocking down some big shots.

Surprise and Flop:

Boston College has started playing a lot like Northwestern, with a high-powered offense but questionable defense. This seems to be what you get when you hire a coach out of the Ivy League.

Brad Brownell’s team still uses some of Oliver Purnell’s pressure defense on occasion, but not nearly as often. As a team, Clemson’s steal rate has dropped 1.2% from last year, and the team has had fewer open court opportunities. Thus the offense has fallen off slightly. But the defense has given up fewer transition lay-ups which has made the full season prediction about right.

Flops:

Virginia Tech can still be a quality defensive team, as they showed in the upset of Duke. But on the year, the defense has been much less consistent than expected.

NC State’s offense hasn’t been the problem. The problem is that Sidney Lowe’s team has not played any defense this year. Good coaches know you have to teach freshman to play defense first. Also, Virginia has had a number of injuries and Wake Forest has a new coach and a young team.

But what is Paul Hewitt’s excuse at Georgia Tech? In one of those odd statistical transformations, last year Iman Shumpert was one of the least efficient Georgia Tech offensive players. (He shot a lot, but it did not always go in.) But now Shumpert has become the only efficient player in the Georgia Tech offense. That is quite a flip-flop.

Big 12 Prediction

What I got right:

I am not feeling too good about my Big 12 predictions. I did like Oklahoma to have the worst efficiency margin in the league, and it has taken a long time, but they have finally delivered.

Surprises:

For Kansas to lose Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, and Xavier Henry, and not miss a beat is amazing. For Kansas to do all this while having multiple point guards miss time, is amazing. Bill Self has truly proven to be one of the best coaches in the nation.

The big surprise is the improvement in the Texas defense, which is best in the nation. We all knew Dogus Balbay could defend, but it takes a total team effort to put up these gaudy defensive stats. Quite frankly, I did not think head coach Rick Barnes could coach defense this well.

Nebraska’s eFG% defense has also improved dramatically from 217^th in the nation to 25^th. If you force teams to miss shots, you can stay close in any game.

Meanwhile, no one notices because Iowa St. has so many losses, but the Cyclones have dramatically improved their three point shooting from last season.

Flops:

You often think that one player does not make that much of a difference. Duke can lose Kyrie Irving and not miss a beat because they have other great players. But for teams that have no answer at point guard, it can be devastating to the season. I admit Tweety Carter was not a superstar for Baylor last year, but he was a solid point guard. Without Carter, Baylor turns the ball over at an alarming rate.

Finally, Texas Tech has suffered an epic defensive breakdown this season, which is very disappointing for a team dependent on so many upperclassmen.