With a 13-3 record, Temple won the 2012 Atlantic-10 regular season championship. Saint Louis finished in second place with a 12-4 record, followed by Xavier and St. Bonaventure at 10-6 apiece.

How did the conference rank in terms of our Floor Impact Counter statistical rankings?

In order to determine our team rankings, we calculate the difference between a team's own FIC per game and their opponents' FIC for the entire conference season.

The FIC is a single statistical measurement that encompasses things such as scoring efficiency, rebounding, blocked shots, etc. Its purpose is to combine the box score into one statistic, both on a team level and for players.

1. Temple: 16.27  
2. Saint Louis: 12.43  
3. St. Bonaventure: 11.73  
4. Saint Joseph's: 6.02  
5. Dayton: 5.23  
6. Xavier: 5.00  
7. Massachusetts: 0.92  
8. La Salle: -0.28  
9. Richmond: -0.56  
10. George Washington: -4.59  
11. Duquesne: -7.73  
12. Charlotte: -7.97  
13. Rhode Island: -13.34  
14. Fordham: -23.12

In-season improvements are common for freshmen. After all, freshmen make more dumb decisions early in the year, so they have more room for improvement. And as Harrison Barnes showed last year, by getting in a rhythm and taking fewer questionable shots, a freshman can improve dramatically between November and March. 

That also means that teams that play a lot of freshmen are the most likely to improve as the season goes on. Last year, we had hard evidence as Memphis, Michigan, St. Joseph’s, and Kentucky were all substantially better in March than they were in January.

But who are the young teams this season? You might think you know the answer if you read the preseason magazines and saw everyone’s returning minutes. But minutes lost are not a perfect predictor of freshmen playing time. San Diego State and Rhode Island both lost 69-71% of their minutes this off-season. But while Rhode Island has started over with a new group of young players, San Diego State has chosen to fill the lineup with transfers and bench players. In fact, the Aztecs aren’t giving any playing time to freshmen.

And that maturity has mattered a lot to the teams’ performances. While Rhode Island has struggled to a 1-10 start, San Diego St. has beaten Arizona and California. The teams with the most and fewest freshmen minutes are not always who you expect. 

Most Minutes to Freshmen

(Playing in a Top 11 Conference or Pomeroy Top 50)

- It may be a bit of a surprise to see Virginia Tech's Seth Greenberg play such a young team. He normally likes tight, experienced lineups. But Dorien Finney-Smith, Robert Brown, and CJ Barksdale are too good to bench. This is easily one of Greenberg’s best recruiting classes.

- Percentage of minutes usually matches percentage of possession’s used, but not always. While freshmen Otto Porter, Greg Whittington, and Jabril Trawick are playing a lot of minutes for Georgetown, the Hoyas’ veterans Hollis Thompson and Jason Clark get the majority of the shots.

- Texas Tech is terrible, but freshman Jordan Tolbert is the real deal.

- Alabama’s inability to make three-pointers and score against a zone defense is really holding the team back from becoming an elite team. Freshmen Levi Randolph, Trevor Lacey, Rodney Cooper, and Charles Hankerson have all missed a lot of open perimeter shots at this point in the season. But if the team can find other ways to score against zone defense, the Crimson Tide can still be great. And if one of these young players develops a jump shot, look out.

- I think Mike Rice is doing a fabulous job, but if you expect Rutgers to be a sleeper in the Big East, be aware how young his team is this year. They’ll be better eventually (especially after Kadeem Jack returns), but it is hard to win with this many freshmen in the lineup and no veteran stars.

- Yes, Kentucky has the best recruits, but could anyone other than John Calipari beat Kansas and North Carolina while working that many freshmen into the lineup?

- West Virginia is exceedingly young, but the formula seems to be working for them. Notice how the freshmen get 53% of the minutes, but only 42% of the possessions? This team is staying competitive by feeding the ball to Kevin Jones and watching Truck Bryant do his thing.

- Texas has been playing a weaker schedule in order to get its freshmen more confidence, but they were not ready to play on the road, looking outmatched against North Carolina on Tuesday. And Texas is going to have to go on the road regularly once Big 12 play starts. But as the team figures out who has the confidence to score against good defense, I expect they will be better. On Wednesday, it was freshmen Sheldon McClellan and Jonathan Holmes stepping up against the Tar Heels. (Interestingly, prized recruit Sterling Gibbs, the player who backed out of a commitment to Maryland, has the worst efficiency stats for Texas right now.)

- We knew St. John’s and Boston College were going to have a rough season with so many young players, and now Nurideen Lindsey has left St. John’s.

Fewest Minutes to Freshmen

(Playing in a Top 11 Conference or Pomeroy Top 50)

- Thanks to a host of transfers, San Diego State and UNLV have maintained veteran lineups despite losing players to graduation. And that’s why the MWC is having another great season.

- Oklahoma has gotten off to a fine start under new head coach Lon Kruger, but keep in mind that he is not breaking in any freshmen. Much like Mike Rice at Rutgers last year, he’s trying to ring some victories out of the current roster before loading up with recruits next season.

- I can’t remember a time when Kansas didn’t have a marquee freshman playing a big role.

Predictions 

My guess is that the teams relying heavily on freshmen will struggle in January. It is hard to go on the road in a hostile environment for the first time with a young team. But if you give them time, I would guess that at least some of these teams will show shocking improvement. Don’t be surprised if Villanova goes on a surprise run in the Big East tournament or if Arkansas suddenly starts springing upsets in February.

On the flip side, I’d be cautious about a team like Missouri. Are they peaking in December? And for a team like Arizona St., things are even more depressing. With a roster filled with older players, but few wins, there is not much hope.

By Conference 

If Wisconsin is always ranked high in the computer rankings, why isn’t Bo Ryan a regular in the Final Four? One hypothesis is that Bo Ryan doesn’t recruit the type of athletes you need to be successful in the tournament. I’m sure that matters to some degree, but Wisconsin hasn’t exactly been losing to North Carolina in the tournament. The last five years the Badgers have been knocked out by UNLV, Davidson, Xavier, Cornell, and Butler. The simplest and most correct answer is that the NCAA tournament represents a small sample of games, and anything can happen in a small sample.

But while that is right, it is not very satisfying. So let me throw out another explanation: Bo Ryan’s teams are over-rated in the margin-of-victory calculations because he always has a veteran team on the floor. Bo Ryan’s lineups are consistently more mature than his opponents. Not only does Bo Ryan depend a lot on upperclassmen, he also red-shirts a ton of players. That means Bo Ryan’s team typically features, at most one or two players under 20 on the floor at all times, and that means his team doesn’t have the same dumb freshmen mistakes as other teams. But it does not mean that we should predict Wisconsin will beat North Carolina or Kentucky on a neutral floor. 

Let me put it another way. Ryan Evans is a relative newcomer to the Badger lineup, but as a red-shirt junior, he’s been through a ton of Wisconsin practices. Compare him to Michigan St. freshman Branden Dawson who sees similar playing time at a similar position for the Spartans. Evans’ efficiency stats are better than Dawson’s at this point in the season. But if you had to wager, would you pick Dawson or Evans to thrive in March?

The problem for the Pac-12 isn’t that the teams are playing too many freshmen. (If you get out a slide rule, the Pac-12 actually averages 18% of minutes given to freshmen which is lower than the D1 average and lower than the Big Ten.) The problem is that because so many players have left early for the NBA in recent years, the players who have stuck around are not good enough.

On a lot of teams, the freshmen defer to the upperclassmen. See Wake Forest, Maryland, Clemson, and Virginia Tech where the percentage of minutes exceeds the percentage of possession’s used. But that isn’t happening at North Carolina. PJ Hairston and James Michael McAdoo take more than their fair share of shots when on the floor. 

Earlier this year, I talked about how Marquette’s Buzz Williams and Notre Dame’s Mike Brey refuse to play freshmen. And while Marquette is still below the D1 average, this season is the most minutes Buzz Williams has ever given to freshmen in his entire career. On the other hand, Mike Brey refuses to break the long-term trend. 

It is hard to believe that “team transfer” aka Iowa St., is actually giving more minutes to freshmen than three other Big 12 teams.

LSU freshmen PG Anthony Hickey has been an extremely pleasant surprise, but he’s taken a few too many dumb shots this year. If he improves his shot selection, the win against Marquette can be more than a fluke.

Chris Gaston: Gaston is an intriguing prospect with a lot of room for growth. While he has carried his Fordham squad over the past two seasons, he must demonstrate a refined perimeter shot to be considered at the next level. As it currently stands, he has the requisite athleticism to crash the boards (34^th in the nation in Defensive Rebounding %) and attack the basket. At this stage, Gaston gets to the line very often (6^th in the A-10 in Fouls Drawn), but rarely converts on these opportunities. (51.7% FT% a year ago)  If he can develop some semblance of an outside shot and simultaneously improve his free throw shooting, Gaston has a chance to make the jump to the professional level. With that said, it will be an uphill battle.

Terrell Vinson: After suffering through foot injuries in his sophomore campaign, Terrell Vinson is looking to bounce back and lead his UMass club to a top 5 finish in conference play. With the loss of offensive focal point Anthony Gurley, the Minutemen are going to lean on the efforts of Vinson and wing Freddie Riley to provide the brunt of UMass’s scoring attack. And, the wiry Vinson has responded to this need by putting in the effort in the offseason to add girth. When the season begins, look for him to be featured as UMass’s top post weapon, and for him to regain the speed that he once had prior to his injury.

TJ McConnell: After an impressive showing in the Green Tree Summer League, McConnell is poised for a breakout season on a national scale. He is already one of the top true point guards in his conference, finishing 5^th in the A-10 in Assist Rate as a freshman. Further, he was efficient on the offensive end, holding the 6^th best Offensive Rating in the conference, while shooting a blistering 57.2% Effective Field Goal % from the floor. On the defensive end, McConnell was the 7^th best in the nation at Steals %. All in all, look for McConnell to earn All-Conference honors in his second season with Duquesne.

Andrew Nicholson: After an extremely impressive junior season, Nicholson has firmly positioned himself on the NBA draft radar for this coming season. This lengthy forward is an impressive athlete that got to the line at will a season ago, finishing 1^st in the A-10 in Fouls Drawn. Further, Nicholson was efficient from the field and finished 4^th in his conference in Effective Field Goal %. Nicholson is also a fairly effective shot blocker and defensive rebounder. He should be on scouts’ radars all season long and will likely hear his name called on draft night.

Tu Holloway: Holloway is one of the best returning point guards in the country. He ranked 4^th in his conference in Assist Rate and provided the necessary leadership for his squad. Further, he shot a 60.2% True Shooting %, while being forced to take roughly a fourth of his team’s shots. Moreover, he was 2^nd in the A-10 (behind Nicholson) in Fouls Drawn. All in all, he must prove to scouts that he can hit the long ball (34.5% from beyond the arc last season) in order to receive more serious NBA consideration.

Mark Lyons: Holloway’s backcourt counterpart Lyons has made some noticeable strides over the summer, and appears poised for a big season in his own right. Look for him to improve on his shooting percentages and for him to attack more off the dribble. Lyons is also an underrated passer, and he will have ample opportunity to demonstrate this aspect of his game in front of scouts, as his Xavier team is one of the ten best programs in the country entering the year.

Ramone Moore: Moore is a fairly efficient scoring guard that plays an unselfish brand of basketball. While he finished 7^th in the A-10 in Offensive Rating amongst players with at least a 24% usage, he also was able to find his teammates at the right moments. Therein, he ranked 23^rd in the conference in Assist Rate and will probably function as more of a distributor this coming season. 

Juan Fernandez: Fernandez is a big lead guard that is capable of hitting clutch shots for his team. He was rated very highly in the preseason polls, and for good reason. Fernandez is a willing passer and an efficient offensive threat despite the fact that he hit a shooting slump last year after sitting out due to some injuries. He finished 8^th in the A-10 in Assist Rate a season ago. Defensively, he has the size, but lacks the lateral quickness to defend elite level guards. This will limit his long run potential.

Tony Taylor: Taylor quietly had one of the best seasons in the A-10 last year as the lead guard for the George Washington Colonials. He distributed the ball very well, finishing 50^th in the country (and 2^nd in the A-10) in Assist Rate. Further, in doing this, he was able to get to the basket and draw contact. Look for him to excel in this area once again and to have an excellent senior season overall. And, if he can lead his team towards the top half of the standings, he should earn All Conference nominations.

Carl Jones: Jones is one of the best up and coming players in the A-10. After not receiving much hype entering his college career, Jones has managed to generate considerable buzz as the leader of his St. Joes’ squad. In his second season, Jones improved in virtually every area, becoming much more consistent from behind the arc and looking for his teammates more often. Jones shot a 48% Effective Field Goal % last season, while managing to take 27% of his team’s shots. Look for Jones to step up once again this year and to be one of the few bright spots on a depleted St. Joes roster.

Chris Johnson: With the loss of world class athlete Chris Wright, Johnson is ready to embrace a position of leadership on his Flyers squad. Functioning as a secondary option at times, Johnson was able to score the basketball efficiently, hitting a 52.0% Effective Field Goal % and earning the 3^rd best Offensive Rating overall in the conference. Further, the loss of Wright should open the door for him to become more of a rebounding presence. He was the 25^th best Defensive Rebounder in the A-10 last season, and he should only improve in this capacity this coming year. All in all, Johnson is one of the more interesting players to keep an eye on, as he appears ready to break out as Dayton’s top weapon.

Kwamain Mitchell: After a breakout sophomore campaign, Mitchell redshirted this past season because of a suspension that was levied just prior to the start of the Fall Semester. Now he is back to lead his St. Louis squad to a potential NCAA Tournament appearance. In 2010, Mitchell was very efficient at the point guard position, posting a 52.3% Effective Field Goal %. Moreover, he was a willing passer, as evinced by his 11^th best Assist Rate in the A-10. Expect him to immediately become St. Louis’s go-to option.

Mike McCall Jr.: With Mitchell redshirting in 2010-2011, McCall emerged as an intriguing point guard prospect. He finished 10^th in the A-10 in Assist Rate as a freshman. This season he will look to take some of the ball pressure off of Mitchell, and will likely play off the ball at times. Look for him to score more efficiently this season and to demonstrate his long run potential as a professional prospect.

Tyreek Duren: While Duren was fairly turnover prone in his first season, he was saddled with most of the ball handling responsibilities. Look for his decision making to improve considerably in his sophomore year, and expect him to make more of an impact on the offensive end. From the get-go, he was able to distribute the ball to his teammates, as demonstrated by his 12^th ranked Assist Rate amongst A-10 players. Duren will likely continue to develop as a facilitator, but should also look to shoot more often with the departures of Williams and Aaric Murray, both of which commanded most of the offensive touches.

Chris Braswell: The 6’9 Braswell is one of the more intriguing forward prospects in the A-10 this season. He is a capable athlete that is aggressive on both ends of the floor. Further, he is one of the better returning rebounders in the conference, finishing 11^th in the A-10 in Offensive Rebounding % and 7^th in Defensive Rebounding %. Braswell is very aggressive inside and is able to draw fouls fairly frequently. If he can convert on a higher percentage of his free throws, Braswell could be in for a breakout year.