Maryland joined the Big Ten on Monday and based on their Tweets, Maryland alumni were not pleased. In fact, even among those who have defended the move, the initial reaction was usually a sense of sadness.

This puzzled me at first. Why does a team make a move that is almost universally derided by its own fanbase? I thought perhaps Maryland fans just needed to hear a little bit of the logic before they would endorse the move. When the SEC first expressed interest in Texas A&M, Aggies’ fans hated the notion. As Big 12 fans, the Aggies had spent their lifetimes screaming that the SEC was overrated. But then Texas A&M fans watched big brothers Texas and Oklahoma dictate terms in the revamped Big 12, and the Texas A&M alumni suddenly changed their tune. The A&M alumni realized that being wanted by a dominant and stable conference was not necessarily a bad thing. And before long it was the A&M alumni pushing for the move to the SEC.

And thus my initial reaction to the Maryland news was that Terrapins’ fans would eventually fall in step. They would eventually realize that having Duke and North Carolina dictate the basketball schedule was irritating. They would eventually realize that the quality of Big Ten basketball has upgraded substantially over the past few seasons. The main problem was the shock of the news. No one had time to let it settle in and contemplate the change of leagues. With time, Terps fans would start to get excited about the future.

(I enjoy the online commentary either way. Isn’t it amazing how each side loves to pull out the least attractive match-ups to support their argument. Critics of the move are quick to point out that Maryland will now play games against Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska. Supporters of the move will point out that Maryland no longer has to play games against Notre Dame, Boston College and Miami.)

But I felt Maryland fans would eventually come around. I thought ESPN’s Scott Van Pelt hit the nail on the head on his radio show. Van Pelt noted that the twinge of sadness Terps fans felt was nostalgia for the past, but it was nostalgia for an ACC that didn’t exist anymore. The days of the double round robin were gone. The days of a fierce rivalry with Duke were over. With 15 schools in the new ACC, a Maryland student enrolling at the school would likely get two home basketball games against Duke in their entire career! It was reasonable to have memories for the past, but under all circumstances the league that most Maryland fans fell in love with was gone. And it had nothing to do with Maryland joining the Big Ten.

And yet the more reaction I read from Maryland fans, the more I am convinced the move was still a disappointment. Terps supporters do lose something permanent with the move. To a large degree, Maryland loses their identity.

It isn’t the school’s identity as a past basketball national champion that is lost. If Maryland returns to the Top 10 they could easily become the Big Ten’s signature basketball property. Do you think Maryland is ever playing the Champions Classic with Duke and North Carolina in the league? But with another NCAA title, it wouldn’t be out of the question in the Big Ten. The Big Ten’s signature basketball team has evolved over the years from Indiana to Michigan to Michigan St., and that title is almost annually up for grabs. Thus this isn’t really about Maryland fans losing their team identity as a past basketball power.

But what Maryland fans lose is spelled out in this simple phrase: “ACC basketball is the best in the nation.” You can throw out whatever statistical argument you want for why that phrase isn’t true. The Big East has been better and deeper over the last five years. The Big Ten has started winning the Big Ten/ACC challenge. Kentucky single-handedly recruited more Top 10 recruits than the ACC this year. But this isn’t a statistical argument. It is about an identity. What players like Vince Carter, Tim Duncan, JJ Redick and Steve Blake did was convince a generation of fans that ACC basketball is always the best in the nation. And now Maryland loses that identity.

Feast Week

Last Friday Sam Gardner made the argument that there might be too many early season tournaments. He argued that the empty seats in Madison Square Garden for an Alabama vs Villanova game prove that the early season tournaments are presenting a watered-down product. I understand the criticism, but I disagree whole-heartedly.

First, I love the empty seats at these events. While the general public may disagree, there is something extremely charming about the general admission nature of an event like the Charleston Classic. You can easily get a seat at mid-court three rows back and watch your team play three games in four days. For anyone who no longer lives in the same town as their favorite college basketball team, you cannot duplicate this type of access. The problem with attendance is that most people do not pay attention to basketball during football season and most people want to spend time with their families rather than vacation this close to Thanksgiving. But if the events are profitable (and each BCS team gets one or two extra exempt home games in addition to the TV revenue), then they could play these games in empty arenas and still provide a valuable product.

And the joy of college basketball is seeing legitimate match-ups between high major teams. These neutral site events ensure that we get quality matchups night after night, and even if some of them are sparsely attended, I wouldn’t trade them for anything.

At a tournament like Charleston, we learn something from every game. We learn that sometimes there are other stars. We put Murray St.’s Isaiah Canaan and Baylor’s Pierre Jackson on the Wooden Award and Naismith Watch List, but then a curly haired sophomore guard from Colorado, Askia Booker ends up stealing the show. All Booker did was set a career high for points on back-to-back nights as Colorado knocked off Murray St. and Baylor.

Meanwhile, we watch a young St. John’s team show signs of promise behind its one returning star, D’Angelo Harrison.

We watch a young Boston College team, whose system should be hard to prepare for on one day’s notice, lose three straight games. And we began to ask what head coach Steve Donahue is building at BC.

And we see the drama as a College of Charleston team blows any chance it has of an at large bid with back to back losses to St. John’s and Auburn, all thanks to Andrew Lawrence having the stomach flu. Every game counts. In addition to the Charleston Classic, there were five more events that just wrapped up:

2K Sports Classic

Memorable Moment: Alabama’s second buzzer beating three of the season, this time by Rodney Cooper, deserves honorable mention. But the image that will stick with me is Purdue blowing a late four-point lead when Purdue’s DJ Byrd was called for a flagrant foul for swinging his elbows. Villanova made two free throws, sank a bucket, and sent the game into OT where Villanova prevailed. The look on Byrd’s face on the sideline during the OT loss was painful. It wasn’t just that he let his team down in this game, but having missed the wide open three against Bucknell a few games earlier, he looked like a player who was carrying the weight of the world on his shoulders.

But as bad as Byrd feels, he isn’t the only one who deserves blame. Purdue blew a bunch of close games last year due to bad free throw shooting and if early returns are any indication, Terone Johnson still has problems at the charity stripe. Johnson shot 44% on his free throws last year and is shooting 50% this year. He had two key misses late against Villanova, and if he makes those shots DJ Byrd doesn’t look like the goat.

Coaches vs Cancer

Memorable Moment: St. Joseph’s Langston Galloway had his head crushed against the floor and a tooth came flying out of his mouth against Notre Dame. Galloway went to the sideline, and after holding a towel in his mouth to slow the bleeding, Galloway returned to the game. Galloway then made a key driving lay-up as his team rallied from eight points down in the final minutes to knock off the Fighting Irish in OT.

I am far too enamored with St. Joe’s this season, but I cannot help but gush about this team. Besides CJ Aiken’s shot-blocking and Galloway’s efficiency, the complimentary players for St. Joe’s all have such incredible skill. With Tay Jones missing for one of the games, Chris Wilson showed great quickness in penetrating to the basket. Halil Kanacevic continued to be an extremely impressive passer for a big man. And Ronald Roberts, always good for the occasional amazing dunk, is starting to turn his athleticism into a true skill as a dominant rebounder. Roberts has averaged 13 rebounds per game through 3 games.  The top six players for St. Joe’s have the ability to hang with anyone, but they have to make sure their decision making and defense match their highlight reel ability.

Puerto Rico Tip-Off

Memorable Moment: NC State’s CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown sat on the sideline with dejected looks as Oklahoma St. blew out #6 NC State in the title game. What really disturbed me about this loss was that I didn’t think Oklahoma St. played a perfect game. The Cowboys offense settles for far too many bad shots and on too many possessions, the offensive plan seems to be to get the ball to LeBryan Nash or Marcus Smart and hope. But NC State did nothing to take advantage of that. On one possession in the second half, Oklahoma St. failed to run its offense and forced a bad three as the shot clock was winding down. Normally that is the type of shot that results in a lay-up on the other end. But instead of NC State grabbing the rebound and attacking, they seemed unaware of the ball. It hit the floor, was picked up by an Oklahoma St. player, and that player was fouled. Dan Dakich can rub people the wrong way with his commentary, and I’m sure a lot of NC State fans thought he was going too far by questioning the Wolfpack’s effort. But he was right. NC State didn’t just lose because they couldn’t make shots. They lost because they were out-worked.

Hall of Fame Tip-Off

Memorable Moment: Seton Hall was not outworked. I look at Seton Hall’s lineup and wonder where the scoring is going to come from. And thus it was not surprising that the Pirates trailed by 16 and 10 at halftime in both games in the Hall of Fame tournament. But thanks to some defensive adjustments, Seton Hall came back to force OT in the first game (before ultimately losing) and then won the second game. I’m not sure I’ve seen a team shoot as many airballs in crunch time as the Pirates did in this tournament, but they showed plenty of heart.

Paradise Jam

Memorable Moment: As ugly as Seton Hall’s shots were, the games in the Virgin Islands were just the opposite. Quinnipiac and UConn played a 2 OT instant classic that involved a buzzer beating three by Quinnipiac at the end of OT, and a 10 point comeback by UConn in the final four minutes of regulation. Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright were basically un-guardable at the end of the semifinal game.

But it wasn’t the best ending of the tournament. Trailing George Mason by five in the final minute, New Mexico’s Kendall Williams took three steps past half-court and unleashed a true prayer for three. It swished through the rim. Then Williams stole the inbounds. The ball was then kicked to Tony Snell who knocked down a three at the buzzer to give New Mexico the win. It was an unbelievable sequence and no matter what New Mexico does this season, they will always have that game.

With these six tournaments in the books, there are still thirteen more tournaments to be completed during Feast Week. The Legends Classic isn’t over, but Georgetown pulled a nice upset over UCLA. UCLA struggled against the Hoyas zone defense, which is too bad because the Bruins have potentially one of the best zone-busters in the country in Kyle Anderson. Anderson is a tremendous passer for his size, but Anderson did not have a good game on Monday and UCLA played with little energy. In Maui, I’m going to have a hard time choosing a memorable moment as Rotnei Clarke had a ridiculous buzzer beater as Butler beat Marquette, and Texas playing without Myck Kabongo, lost to Chaminade. The feast is just getting started.

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While my preseason projections won’t be available until the end of October, I have cranked out the odds for the holiday tournaments based on my rankings. Today’s column looks at who is likely to win each early season tournament, and what storylines to keep an eye on.

Do not hesitate to print out the tournament brackets and follow along as they happen. It is extremely easy to get busy with the Thanksgiving holidays and miss some of the best games of the season. But if you print out these brackets and fill them in, you won’t miss the upsets. Just click on the handy links throughout this document to find the printable brackets.

Preseason NIT Printable Bracket

I’ve already expressed my doubts about Michigan and my faith in Pittsburgh. But Pitt’s second round opponent will be very dangerous. Both Lehigh (led by NCAA hero CJ McCollum) and Robert Morris (led by super-scorer Velton Jones) have the ability to knock off Pittsburgh. These teams have a real chance to win the Patriot League and Northeast Conference, and this is the type of game that can mean the difference between earning a 15 seed and a 13 seed come March.

2K Sports Classic Printable Bracket

OSU’s Jared Cunningham, Alabama’s JaMychal Green, Purdue’s Robbie Hummel, and Villanova’s Maalik Wayns are gone, and those players were not only their team’s leading scorers last season, they were the heart of their respective offenses. Which rebuilding team will forge a new identity first? Because Anthony Grant has become a dominant defensive coach, while Craig Robinson has not, Alabama is the favorite here.

Charleston Classic Printable Bracket

There are some big name conference schools here, but this tournament is a dream for fans of mid-major squads. Murray St. won’t be able to duplicate last year’s 31-2 record, but with superstar point-guard Isaiah Canaan returning, Murray St. should have enough to beat Auburn and St. John’s. In fact, they might even face the College of Charleston in the semifinals. This offseason Charleston added head coach Doug Wojcik, a veteran coach who hasn’t been able to get to the NCAA tournament, but a coach who has consistently built strong defensive teams. If Wojcik can get Charleston to play great defense this season, he has enough returning talent to make a run at an NCAA tournament bid. Andrew Lawrence is clearly Charleston’s best returning offensive player, but the real player to keep an eye on is Adjehi Baru. Baru was ranked 37^th in the nation out of high school and is one of the highest ranked recruits to ever attend Charleston. And while Baru was a nice complimentary player as a freshman last season, it will be very interesting to see if he can break out as a sophomore.

Of course the clear favorite here is Baylor. Baylor may have lost some key post players to graduation and the NBA, but they have plenty of incoming talent. This will be our first chance to see the highly acclaimed 7’1” freshman Isaiah Austin in action.

Puerto Rico Tipoff Printable Bracket

Oklahoma St.’s odds aren’t poor because Oklahoma St. is a bad team. The Cowboys add Top 10 freshman Marcus Smart alongside former Top 10 recruit LeBryan Nash. That one-two punch will make Oklahoma St. a likely NCAA tournament team this year. But the Cowboys have a terrible tournament draw.  First Oklahoma St. has to face Akron. Akron point guard Alex Abreu may be under-sized, but he’s an extremely talented player, and 7 foot center Zeke Marshall could have played for a number of BCS teams. And while the MAC hasn’t had multiple NCAA bids since 1999, Ohio and Akron are strong enough to break that trend.

Meanwhile Tennessee is a heavy favorite to be the second round opponent. Tennessee may have only finished 19-15 last year, but the Vols played substantially better after Jarnell Stokes joined the team mid-season. And with Trae Golden and Jeronne Maymon becoming efficient scorers for head coach Cuonzo Martin, a lot of people have taken notice. Florida head coach Billy Donovan has gone on the record to say that Tennessee is the team to beat in the SEC this season.

And if Oklahoma St. wins that game, they only have to face NC State in the final, the same NC State team that many people have labeled as the ACC favorite. So no, Oklahoma St. isn’t a bad team. But their path to a Puerto Rico tipoff title is brutal.

Coaches vs Cancer

If you get tired of the sloppy play by all the new players in November, please don’t miss Notre Dame vs St. Joseph’s in the first round of the Coaches vs Cancer tournament. Both teams return all five starters from last season and have plenty of offensive stars. I’m going to keep writing about the shot-blocking CJ Aiken, super-slasher Carl Jones, and the super-efficient Langston Galloway until St. Joe’s gets more love, but this four team field is wide open.

Notre Dame is the favorite, but I do have one question for Irish fans. Given Scott Martin’s middling efficiency numbers in his career, was it a good thing that the NCAA granted him an additional year of eligibility? Martin made just 26% of his threes and 40% of his twos last year, and while injuries may have contributed to that, it is clear he wasn’t an elite player last year.

Paradise Jam Printable Bracket

Despite a host of mid-major schools, this tournament looks very dull. Mercer and Iona might compete for the ASun and MAAC titles this year, but neither looks like a likely at-large bid.

And still Connecticut’s tournament odds are not great. First NCAA tournament sanctions led to a host of transfers this off-season. Then the Huskies lost Jim Calhoun to retirement. And as we’ve seen in recent seasons, UConn has been a different team when Calhoun is out. He’s a special coach who can elevate the level of his players, and he will not easily be replaced.

Steve Alford’s team might actually be a little better on offense this season. The team loses Drew Gordon at the forward position, but New Mexico also loses AJ Hardeman. And as great an offensive player as Gordon was, Hardeman was a black hole on offense. With Alex Kirk returning from injury to provide that shot-blocking presence in the paint, and all the returning talent at the guard spots, New Mexico deserves more preseason praise.

Hall of Fame Tip-Off Printable Bracket

Washington’s Abdul Gaddy has had an injury filled career, but with Tony Wroten leaving early for the draft, this is Gaddy’s team. The senior point-guard will have to integrate some new pieces throughout the Washington lineup. Seton Hall will have a number of new faces as well, including Georgia Tech transfer Brian Oliver and Southern Illinois transfer Gene Teague. Realistically, the winner of this game will probably be headed to the NIT, but a win against Ohio St. would be a fantastic notch on any NCAA resume. While Ohio St. is the clear favorite thanks to the efficient high volume shooter DeShaun Thomas, there are questions about how the Buckeyes offense will run without Jared Sullinger.

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Earlier this spring I presented my “way-too-early” projections for seven major conferences. Due to time and space constraints, I never published my projections for the A10 and CUSA. But with the announcement that VCU will be joining the A10 for the 2012-13 season, I thought it would be a good time to share my projections for that league.

These projections remove all graduating seniors, announced transfers, and early entrants from rosters. My transfer information comes from Jeff Goodman’s list as of May 14th. In these projections, I use the tempo free player statistics to predict how the margin-of-victory numbers will change between seasons. Then I use that information to predict the 2013 conference standings. For now I assume the A10 sticks with a 16-game schedule next season.

PW = Predicted Conference Wins

PL = Predicted Conference Losses

P% = Percentage of Possessions Returning – (Possessions are a more powerful predictor of future offense than minutes, although the model includes returning minutes as well.)

The remaining column headings were described in a previous post, but for a refresher, scroll to the bottom of this page.

VCU brings every key player back except Bradford Burgess. I don’t want to understate how important Burgess was to the Rams. He led the team in minutes, shots when on the floor, and he was one of the two most efficient players on the team. He will clearly be missed. But the four A10 teams that made the NCAA tournament also lost key players. Xavier lost Kenny Frease and Tu Holloway to graduation and Mark Lyons to transfer; St. Bonaventure lost Andrew Nicholson; Temple lost Ramon Moore, Michael Eric, and Juan Fernandez; and St. Louis lost Brian Conklin. None of those players will be easy to replace. I’d feel much more confident if VCU was bringing in a strong recruiting class, but Jordan Burgess was not a consensus Top 100 recruit.

Quite frankly this projection isn’t as much about elite talent as it is about Shaka Smart’s ability to bring his players together the last few years. His team had the top steal rate in the nation last season and as long as he is teaching a unique brand of full court basketball, he can win in the A10. His margin of victory numbers would have been second in the A10 last season, and his team returns 82% of its possessions. That’s a recipe for success. The model likes VCU to finish 3^rd in the A10 next year.

I’m not making a projection for Butler here, because they won’t be in the league until 2013-14, but if they were in the A10 next season, my model would have them at 10-6, right in the middle of the pack. Butler had a disappointing year by their new lofty standards because they simply couldn’t score. But the addition of one of the best three point shooters in the country (transfer Rotnei Clarke) as well as Kellen Dunham, a consensus Top 100 recruit, should help turn the offense around.

I’m looking forward to an annual battle between VCU and Butler where they re-air the highlights of the 2011 NCAA tournament, but the A10 absolutely must improve its television deal. The last few years this league has had a ton of great players who simply haven’t gotten the publicity they deserve nationally because they haven’t been on TV. St. Joseph’s Carl Jones and Massachusetts Chaz Williams are incredibly exciting players to watch, but I rarely saw their highlights on ESPN last year. The good news for those two players is that both St. Joseph’s and Massachusetts bring back their primary rotation and both teams should be in the hunt for the NCAA tournament next season.

I’m a little surprised Richmond isn’t picked higher by the model. Last year’s seniors all had very inefficient seasons and the 1.039 mark in the relative value column says Richmond is bringing back the exact right offensive players. But the Spiders had serious problems on defense last year and it is hard to predict a big turnaround. It isn’t that Chris Mooney doesn’t know what he is doing, but this really appears to be a “size” issue more than an effort issue. Most people remember the guard play during Richmond’s stellar Sweet Sixteen run from a few years ago, including Kevin Anderson’s amazing clutch shot against Vanderbilt. But that team was anchored in the middle by 6’10” Justin Harper, and so far Mooney hasn’t quite been able to find the right replacement in the middle.

Here is why my model likes St. Louis to win the league. Despite finishing second in the standings, St. Louis had far and away the best margin-of-victory numbers in the conference last year. Their defense was Top 10 caliber, and while Conklin will be missed, the biggest factor was having Rick Majerus on the sideline. Majerus reportedly spoke to SMU about their coaching vacancy this spring, but the fact that he stayed at St. Louis should mean the Billikens will have an elite defense once again. And in an A10 without any dominant teams, that should be the difference.

The model currently projects Xavier to go 10-6 in the A10 next season which would be the same conference record as this year. The model isn’t saying that this year’s team is as good as last year’s team on paper. What I am saying is that the Musketeers significantly under-achieved in 2012 and still have a lot of talent. Dezmine Wells should be back, and at times he looked like Xavier’s best player last year. Transfer Isaiah Philmore is a fabulous scorer. And elite PG recruit Semaj Christon should help lessen the blow of losing Tu Holloway.

Of course Memphis is the league favorite because they have the most talent. As I noted last fall, no non-BCS team recruits like Memphis and they will finally be playing in a BCS league in 2013-14. Until then, anything short of another league title will be a disappointment.

Point guard AJ Rompza graduates, but Central Florida hopes that one of two transfers will fill the void. The team adds Calvin Newell from Oklahoma and CJ Reed from Bethune Cookman. Newell might be the more familiar name, but Reed’s statistics at Bethune Cookman were fantastic and he might be the better player. Regardless of who wins the job, they will have three prolific scorers to feed as Isaiah Sykes, Keith Clanton, and Marcus Jordan all return.

If you are looking for a sleeper pick, consider UTEP. The Miners lose two starters but the team gave a lot of minutes to freshmen last year (particularly Cedrick Lang and Julian Washburn) and if those young players make a big “sophomore leap” in production, UTEP could be a surprise.

SMU is tough to project. The problem is that I don’t have any college data for Larry Brown and so it is hard to give him credit for what he can do on the sidelines. Normally when a veteran coach takes over a bad team, he will focus on improving the defense first. But SMU was actually a defensive-minded team last year; it was that the offense that was dreadful. And the offense isn’t going to get substantially better until the talent level of the team is upgraded. Larry Brown’s staff has been hard at work adding transfers to fill that gap, but the goal seems to be to build towards the first year in the Big East, not this season. Sure Illinois transfer Crandall Head might be eligible mid-semester, but will Larry Brown even waste a year of eligibility by playing him in the spring? I won’t be surprised if SMU does a little better than 4-12, but on paper this looks like an offensively challenged team.

Having said all that, a large reason SMU’s offense was dreadful was because SMU’s offensive rebounding was off-the-charts terrible. Perhaps by focusing on those types of skills, Larry Brown can improve SMU’s offense. London Giles was a pretty solid shooter and Jalen Jones has some skills, so the team isn’t completely devoid of hope. But if they do manage to get to .500 in CUSA, Larry Brown deserves credit. It shouldn’t be the expectation with this team.

Overall, Houston and SMU should be thankful they won’t play their first Big East game for 19 months, because neither team is ready. On the other hand, Memphis, Temple, and UCF would be competitive in the Big East this season. UCF might not have a winning record in the Big East, but they wouldn’t be a laughingstock with this year’s lineup.

Column Headings:

PW = Predicted Conference Wins

PL = Predicted Conference Losses

FrP% = Percentage of Freshmen Possessions

T10Fr = Consensus Top 10 Freshmen Recruits

N100 = New Recruits Ranked 11-100 on the Roster – (This includes transfers and redshirt freshmen.)

Total = Total RSCI Top 100 high school recruits on the roster

NC = New Coach

RV = Relative Value = Offensive Rating of Returning Players, Incoming Transfers, and Players Returning from Injury (like UNC’s Leslie McDonald) divided by the Offensive Rating of Last Year’s Roster

MOV12 = Opponent Adjusted Margin-of-Victory in 2012 (see Pythag. rating on Kenpom.com)