In mid-January, I ran a table with the average coach efficiency ratings over the last 5 years. Here is an excerpt from that table:

AAO = Average Adjusted Offense

AAD = Average Adjusted Defense

AEMR = Average Efficiency Margin Rank (Offense minus Defense)

Every team in the Elite Eight has a veteran coach that knows how to win. Every coach is in the Top 20 in efficiency margin over the last 5 years, and that possession by possession dominance is paying off. Eventually if you win more trips down the floor than you lose, you will find your team making a deep run in the tournament.

Keep in mind that if this table went back 7 years (and included the two Florida championship seasons), Billy Donovan would look even better. Scott Drew seems like the outlier on this list, but while I have often questioned Baylor’s defense, there is no question that Scott Drew’s teams have become much more consistent over the last 5 seasons.

Bill Self hasn't looked like a great coach the last two games. But keep in mind that his success is predicated on defense. And with the season on the line, his team got stops against both Purdue and NC State.

The Moment

Point guard injuries can clearly be catastrophic when you don’t have a viable backup. Minnesota went from beating multiple Top 25 teams to losing 10 of their last 11 last season when they lost both their point guards. So I’m not confident that North Carolina will turn it around. As John Gasaway noted on Twitter, North Carolina turned the ball over on 30% of their possessions in regulation against Ohio Friday. But how fast Kendall Marshall heals and how UNC responds will always be speculation. There will never be a large enough sample of games to know the answer, before UNC’s season is over. The only thing we can do is tune in and see what happens next.

And sometimes, that is what it is all about. As much as I love picking apart games, the joy of March basketball is getting wrapped up in the moment. There was a moment on Friday when Nick Kellogg made a three pointer to give Ohio its first lead of the game 47-46. The stadium erupted in applause. And collectively across America, everyone had the same thought. Ohio might be able to win this game. At that point it wasn’t about play-calling or matchups. It was about the wild ride. It was about DJ Cooper’s bucket and one to give Ohio a precarious two point lead. It was about Reggie Bullock’s heart as he knocked down a three. And it was about the missed opportunity when Walter Offutt missed a FT that would have given Ohio the lead in the final 30 seconds. We argue, we analyze, and we speculate all year. But in the end we watch for one reason. We live for the moment that a game captures our imagination and draws us in. We live for the last 8 minutes of Ohio vs North Carolina.

Bad and Good

Twitter was abuzz with jokes about North Carolina’s Harrison Barnes draft stock dropping on Friday thanks to his hideous 3 of 16 performance. But he wasn’t the only star player with a horrible shooting day. Ohio’s DJ Cooper had his 3 of 20 stat line. Scott Wood and Lorenzo Brown were a combined 5 of 22 for NC State. And Kansas’ Tyshawn Taylor followed up a 4 of 11 performance against Purdue with a 2 of 14 performance that included 5 turnovers against NC State. Just when we thought Tyshawn Taylor had turned a corner this season and become a consistent star, the inconsistent Tyshawn Taylor is back. At least things were better in Atlanta. Baylor’s Quincy Acy was an individual highlight reel against Xavier, scoring 20 points on some of the most impressive dunks of the season. And Kentucky and Indiana engaged in a beautiful game of transition basketball.

The most impressive thing for many people was Kentucky’s balanced scoring in the game, but I find it equally impressive how so many Kentucky players are capable of attacking the rim off the bounce. When Victor Oladipo fouled out and Matt Roth came in at the end of the game, there simply wasn’t anyone for Roth to guard. Every player on Kentucky was capable of beating him off the dribble.

Expected Wins in NCAA Tournament

Own = Change in Expected Wins based on each team’s own game.

Other = Change in Expected Wins based on other games in the bracket

Marg = Change based on the change in the Pomeroy Rankings since last Sunday.

North Carolina’s win was the most expected, so it did little to increase the Tar Heels “Own” expectations. Since the favored teams all won on Friday, the effect of “Other” games is negative across the board. The “Marg” is the only column including Thursday’s games. Louisville’s win over Michigan St. was the most impressive of the round.

If you are returning to work on Monday and missed what was written over the weekend, I want to direct your attention to two things I wrote:

First, here was my running diary of Friday’s historic games. That day was so fun, you have to read about it again.

Second, here was my breakdown of the Syracuse lineup in the five games without Fab Melo this season.

This column for Sunday's games can’t quite top the juicy goodness of those two columns, but here are 1,000 words anyway.

Surprise

Twelve of the 16 teams in the Sweet Sixteen were in the preseason AP Top 25, and Michigan St. was among the first teams in the “others receiving votes” category. But Indiana, Ohio, and NC State have all exceeded expectations this season by making it this far.

Fourteen months ago I attended the Charleston Classic and saw NC State in person. The Wolfpack seemed like they had some nice pieces. Scott Wood was one of the best pure shooters in the country. And NC State had plenty of athleticism. But the fundamentals were all wrong for the team. No one boxed out. No one made a priority of getting back in transition. And with a team of freshmen on the floor, everyone wanted to take the first available shot instead of working for a good shot. NC State advanced to the championship game of the Charleston Classic, but was blown out by Georgetown.

Now, flash forward to December of 2011. NC State hosted Syracuse, another tall Big East team that also plays a lot of zone defense. The Wolfpack had an eFG% of 64% in that game, but because their fundamentals were so poor, particularly their turnover rate, they still lost.

If you had told me in December that NC State would have to play Georgetown on one day’s preparation, with no time to prepare for the back-cuts of Georgetown’s offense, and the length of Georgetown’s zone defense, I would have said the Wolfpack had no chance. But a funny thing happened over the course of the season. NC State rediscovered the importance of fundamentals. Against the zone defense on Sunday, NC State took care of the ball. And the Wolfpack rebounded like champions. Richard Howell and CJ Leslie were unstoppable on the offensive glass.

But more than fundamentals, NC State discovered the importance of team basketball. They played a lot of zone, which shut down Georgetown’s back-cuts. But the Hoyas have run great offense against the zone this year. It isn’t Princeton stuff, but it is based on great passing out of the high post. And NC State stopped all of it. They moved their feet defensively and got Henry Sims to commit multiple offensive fouls. And with Sims out of the game, they severely limited Georgetown’s offensive sets against the zone.

And on the other end of the court, NC State was patient. They rarely settled for threes against the zone, and when they took threes, it was the right players taking those shots. Scott Wood, in particular, lived up to his billing as an elite three point shooter. But more importantly, NC State didn’t panic when forced to play half-court basketball. A year ago, NC State could only win when they were forcing turnovers and moving up and down the court. But Georgetown only turned the ball over twice in the second half, and NC State still opened up a lead. They executed in the half-court even better than the Hoyas. NC State might not be a truly elite team this year. But there can be no mistake that Mark Gottfried has changed the team’s culture. NC State basketball is back.

Other Notes

- Cincinnati vs Florida St. was a phenomenal basketball game with more lead changes than just about any game this season. But as I predicted last Monday, Cincinnati was able to win it by forcing key turnovers near the end of the game.

- I was shocked that Bill Self tried to use a triangle and two with the season on the line, but either it disrupted Purdue, or the Boilermakers just got tired. Bill Self has long been an advocate that when the season is on the line you have to play man-to-man, but his team came back from double digits in part because of the confusion his novel defense caused.

- It gets a little old praising Michigan St.’s Draymond Green, but it is impossible not to love what he does on the basketball court. The final 3 minutes against St. Louis were a classic highlight reel. First Green hit a tough leaning jump shot in the lane. Then he blocked a shot on the other end. Then he had a great drive and assist to Keith Appling for three. And then he followed it up with a hard-fought defensive rebound. He is the pure definition of a complete (and elite) basketball player.

- John Henson announced he was back for North Carolina by hitting a long jumper 50 seconds into Sunday’s game against Creighton. Then he got called for a technical after a Creighton player took a cheap shot at his wrist. But it wasn’t the only contact he got in the game. With 3 minutes left in the first half, Creighton again slapped for the ball and pounded his injured wrist. Henson did not look happy as he headed to the sideline. He can obviously still play basketball at a high level, but I do believe his wrist will bother him the rest of the tournament. Meanwhile Kendall Marshall apparently fractured a bone in his wrist late in the game as well. Obviously if Marshall is out, that is devastating to North Carolina’s odds of winning it all. But he was back on the floor late in the game, and I suspect he may be able to play through this injury.

- USF seemed to be in control against Ohio, but two dumb fouls swung the rare 12/13 matchup. Up 5 with 15:52 to go, a USF player held the jersey of an Ohio player, leading to a flagrant foul. Ohio made both free throws and swished a three to tie the game. Then minutes later, USF was up 5 again when USF got a technical for hanging on the rim. Again Ohio hit both free throws and sunk a three. The second time was finally enough. Ohio had momentum and put the game away.

- When Lehigh went up 15 points, they looked like they might become the first 15 seed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, but Xavier eventually gutted it out. After watching center Kenny Frease score a career high 25 points for Xavier, I am very curious to see how his power matches up with Baylor’s interior talent in the next round.

Expected NCAA Tournament Wins (Excluding Opening Round)

Own: If you lose in the round of 32, your expected wins go to one. If you win, your expected wins go up.

Other: Other team’s outcomes can also impact your expected wins.

Marg: The margin of victory for all tournament teams can impact your probability. This essentially reflects the daily change in the Pomeroy Rankings.

Though Kentucky has a higher probability of winning it all, Ohio St. has a higher probability of winning in the next round, so OSU’s expected wins are trivially higher at this point.

- Florida’s “Own” win over Norfolk St. was not a surprise, so it did little to improve their expectations, but Michigan St.’s “Own” win over St. Louis was critical to their tournament odds.

- Georgetown’s loss was a huge gift to Kansas. The Jayhawks saw their odds increase significantly because of that “Other” game.

- Florida’s impressive margin of victory in the Round of 32 (see Marg) has further enhanced their expectation of advancing.

Major Conference Tournaments Day 4

I will get to the bubble talk, but first a few observations from other games:

Baylor – Baylor went 0 for 4 against Kansas and Missouri in the regular season and it caused many people to question the team’s toughness. But in the Big 12 semifinals, the Bears finally broke through and beat the Jayhawks. Hot three-point shooting contributed to the win, but it wasn’t the only thing Baylor did right. After Kansas went on a run to take the lead late in the game, Baylor’s defense didn’t crumble like in previous games. Instead they forced several turnovers. I’m not a big proponent of the 1-3-1 or the poor man-to-man defense that Baylor often plays, but with their length and athleticism, when they swarm the ball, they can be extremely disruptive. And Baylor caused just enough chaos to win this game. It was also notable that both Quincy Acy and Perry Jones came through with huge inside buckets when the game got close. Acy had a relatively poor game, but he had at least one offensive rebound and put-back that drew Bob Knight’s praise. And Perry Jones had a great spin-move near the bucket for a key inside basket late.

Missouri – Missouri beat Texas, but in the process Kim English bruised his thigh. It was a scary moment that reminded everyone what it means that Missouri has only 7 scholarship players. The short rotation has been great for building chemistry, but if someone on the Tigers were to get hurt in an early round of the NCAA tournament, a deep run would be almost impossible.

Duke – With Ryan Kelly out, Duke struggled against Virginia Tech, but I caught one play in this game that still amazed me. With 20 seconds left, the ball was loose and four players race for it. Austin Rivers showed his quickness by coming from behind to win the race, and while sliding through a pack of three players he calmly flicked the ball up on the rim for a bucket and one. Rivers did not have a great game, but he showed his incredible athleticism with that play.

North Carolina – John Henson came down on his wrist which was X-rayed at halftime. Preliminary reports said it was just a sprain, but UNC fans have to be holding their breath. North Carolina is not a deep team this year and Henson is the key to the defense.

Michigan – Evan Smotrycz was 1-for-4 from the floor, scored only three points, and fouled out of the game against Minnesota. But he hit a three pointer to tie the game at the end of regulation, and that will make this one of the best days of his career. Michigan came back from 7 down with 4 minutes left to beat the Gophers in OT.

Wisconsin – Rob Wilson scored a career high 30 points on 7-for-10 shooting from three point range in the Badgers win over Indiana. It is amazing how often an unheralded Wisconsin player will make seven threes in a game. You can’t blame Indiana for poor scouting because Wilson had never scored more than 11 points in a game this season. In fact Wilson had zero points and played just two minutes the last time Indiana and Wisconsin met.

Louisville – Thursday Louisville forced 26 turnovers in the win over Marquette. And all season long their dominance has been based on defense. But somehow they shot 56% against Notre Dame, and all of a sudden a team that had been disappointing for much of the year is putting things together.

Syracuse – I don’t buy for a second that the semifinal game wasn’t very important to Syracuse. The Orange have owned Madison Square Garden and had some of the biggest moments in team history in this tournament. To say that the loss to Cincinnati didn’t mean anything because you’ve already locked up a 1-seed is disrespectful to the Bearcats.

Bid Stealing?

I hate the term bid-stealing, because the teams on this list are earning bids by winning their conference tournaments. In some sense, the at-large teams are the bid-thieves. But if your team is on the bubble, you will be rooting hard against this list:

Marshall – Southern Miss has had poor three point defense this year, but a day after East Carolina hit 15 threes against USM, Marshall hit 9 threes on only 17 attempts. A day after fouling out, Marshall’s Damier Pitts scored 24 points. And to add some comedy late in the game, Pitts accidentally tripped USM head coach Larry Eustachy on the sideline. I would like to say Marshall can earn a bid on Saturday, but Memphis has won its last 6 games by 18+ points, so it will take a huge effort to win that game.

Ole Miss – Skylar McBee hit a three pointer at the end of regulation for Tennessee that might have given Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy a heart-attack, but Mississippi regrouped and won in OT. Now all they have to do is beat Vanderbilt and Kentucky/Florida to earn an NCAA bid. Good luck with that.

UMass/St. Bonaventure – Here is where things get interesting. With Massachusetts upset of Temple, one of these two teams is going to play in the A10 final on Saturday, with a real chance of taking home the league’s automatic bid. The great thing about this match-up is that the country is either going to learn a lot about the versatile shooter and driver, the 5’9” Chaz Williams of UMass, or the country is going to learn about 6’9” NBA prospect Andrew Nicholson of St. Bonaventure. Nicholson has almost single-handedly turned around a St. Bonaventure program that hasn’t been to the A10 semis since 2000. And even though Massachusetts’ victory over Temple is probably more impressive, St. Bonaventure’s win over St. Joseph’s was no less special. Langston Galloway and Carl Jones have been two of the best guards in the A10, and St. Bonaventure forced Galloway into a charge and Jones into a bad shot along the baseline in the final seconds to defend a one point lead.

Helping their cause

Xavier – Trailing Dayton by one point in the final seconds, Xavier’s Mark Lyons drove the lane and banked home the game-winner. Then on the other end the Musketeers bothered Dayton’s Matt Kavanaugh enough that he missed a three foot floater in the lane, and Xavier prevailed. This was a terrific game as was the OT victory earlier this year against Dayton. Suffice to say that Tu Holloway and Kevin Dillard have had a fantastic rivalry this year. Xavier seems to be more of a lock after this win, but if UMass or St. Bonaventure win the tournament, you have to wonder if that might knock Xavier out of the field. Xavier’s best bet is to keep winning.

NC State – NC State’s win over Virginia certainly helps state their case, but I think that win is more an indictment of Virginia’s flaws than NC State’s worthiness for an NCAA bid. With Tony Bennett announcing earlier in the week that Assane Sene will not be returning this season, Virginia just lacks the size in the paint and the depth to beat quality teams.

Stubbing their toe

Miami (FL) – The Hurricanes have two solid wins over Duke and Florida St., but to only have 3 RPI Top 100 wins is almost certainly not enough. Even a team like Harvard has 5 RPI Top 100 wins. The Hurricanes were hurt by the weakness of the ACC, and Jim Larranaga’s inability to improve the team’s defense this year.

Southern Miss – The tempo free crowd may hate this team based on their poor margin-of-victory numbers, but the truth is they racked up the quality wins, including beating bubble teams Colorado St. and South Florida. Southern Miss is in despite the loss to Marshall described above.

Bid Taken!

Arizona/Colorado: With Colorado’s late night upset over California, that means the Pac-12 will have a surprise winner of the league’s automatic bid. Carlon Brown’s windmill dunk for Colorado was the tasty desert at the end of another fantastic day of basketball.