Last fall on Basketball Prospectus I introduced the first ever lineup-based statistical model. Today, I use that model to project the 2013-2014 ACC college basketball standings:

Proj CW, CL = Projected conference wins and losses

Proj Off, Def = Projected points scored and allowed per 100 possessions against an average D1 team on a neutral floor

Top 100 = Number of players ranked in the RSCI Top 100 out of high school who are on the roster 

Ret Min, Ret Poss = Returning minutes and possessions

Last Off, Last Def = Last year’s offense and defense

Duke: Quinn Cook, Andre Dawkins, Rasheed Sulaimon, Mississippi St. transfer Rodney Hood, Amile Jefferson, #2 recruit Jabari Parker. Yes, Duke is going to be dominant again.

North Carolina: Marcus Paige, PJ Hairston, Leslie McDonald, James McAdoo, and four high potential young forwards (either ready to make the sophomore leap or contribute from day one) should make for a dominant lineup.

Virginia: At the start of April I wrote this: “Everything is coming together for Virginia. They have their three top scorers (really the only guys who scored at all) back from last year. Former Top 100 recruit Mike Tobey should be ready for that sophomore year leap in production. They add depth with South Carolina transfer Anthony Gill. Malcolm Brogdon (who missed the entire season) and Darion Atkins should be back healthy. And Virginia played very good basketball in conference games last year.” The only question mark is point-guard. London Perrantes, Teven Jones, and/or Devon Hall have to come through for this team to meet its expectations. And while at #97 ESPN recruit Perrantes isn’t a sure thing, the model thinks he will easily exceed the efficiency of Jontel Evans. Evans couldn’t shoot at all last year and posted an 83.4 ORtg. When a team loses its most inefficient players and has solid replacements coming in, that team should be substantially improved.

Syracuse: Unfortunately, Syracuse seems poised for another brutal offensive year. There were basically only four guys on the team that could score last year, and three of them are gone. The real problem is the lack of depth on the perimeter. My model has Duke transfer Michael Gbinije playing some minutes at the shooting-guard spot, but as Georgetown saw last year when they tried to play Otto Porter at that spot, a four forward lineup doesn’t have the right spacing. This is especially true given that among Syracuse’s returning forwards only CJ Fair has a true jump shot.

That means Syracuse will have to give a lot of minute to Tyler Ennis, Trevor Cooney, and Ron Patterson. Tyler Ennis might have a higher recruiting rank than Virginia’s London Perrantes, but he still isn’t a guaranteed star where he is rated. And Trevor Cooney was brutal last season. While the model predicts Cooney will be better this year, he certainly can’t be counted on to be a star. And Syracuse hasn’t had much success utilizing unranked freshmen right of the bat which isn’t good for Ron Patterson’s expectations.

DaJuan Coleman might become a high scorer next year, but it is a catch-22. While he is the only returning player who was a high volume shooter, he wasn’t very efficient (89.1 ORtg) last year. Part of that was an injury issue, but even with a fairly sizable jump in efficiency this year, he won’t be able to carry the offense. Don’t be fooled by transfer Michael Gbinije’s ORtg on Statsheet.com. He basically never played for Duke two years ago. The fact that he didn’t play says more about his expectations then whatever numbers he posted in garbage time in a few games. And don’t be fooled by Baye Moussa Keita’s efficiency either. Keita basically never shot last year. Syracuse has eight former Top 100 recruits on the roster, so they have talent. But it isn’t quite the right fit to expect a dominant offense.

Where I think the model may be wrong is not the offense, but the defense. The model is skeptical because Jim Boeheim has only had an adjusted defense below 89.0 once in his career. That one year was last season, so perhaps it will be repeatable. But Michael Carter-Williams had rare size at the PG spot. He made it brutally hard for teams like Indiana to get open looks at three and for players to make basic entry passes. If Cooney and Ennis can duplicate that, then Syracuse may be a Top 10 team.  My model expects a solid but not historic defensive performance from Syracuse.

Pittsburgh: This is going to sound odd, but Pittsburgh probably has a better starting rotation than Syracuse. Talib Zanna was Pittsburgh’s best forward last season. James Robinson was impressive as a first-year PG, and Lamar Patterson was a do-everything player. Meanwhile, JJ Moore is back and he was Pittsburgh’s most efficient bench player. The team also adds highly ranked freshman recruit Mike Young at forward. The real weakness for Pittsburgh is going to be depth. After those five guys, there is a serious drop-off. But keep in mind that Jamie Dixon has only finished with more than six conference losses once in his career. That isn’t going to change even in a stacked ACC.

Maryland: Replacing Alex Len won’t be easy, but the combination of Shaquille Cleare and Charles Mitchell’s development, combined with the addition of a lights out perimeter shooting forward (Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz) should make it palatable. Pe’shon Howard was so inefficient at the PG slot that his departure is probably addition by subtraction.

Notre Dame: For those of you keeping track, despite being listed as seniors last year, Garrick Sherman and Tom Knight are coming back. I am most interested to see how Mike Brey utilizes freshmen Demetrius Jackson. Brey usually has a short-leash with freshmen. The exception was Luke Harangody, and Jackson might just be that kind of freshmen. What is holding Notre Dame back is that Mike Brey is not an elite defensive coach. And that means the loss of a premiere defensive rebounder like Jack Cooley is a real problem.

Florida St.: Somehow, despite a horrible non-conference season, and terrible margin-of-victory numbers, the Seminoles won nine ACC games last year. I expect Florida St.’s offense and defense to be substantially better than last year. But I don’t expect them to match last year’s exceptional luck. And in an improved ACC, I project Florida St. as a 9-9 team. They will be better, but they might not have more conference wins to show for it.

Of course, if Andrew Wiggins matriculates, this expectation will be much higher.

Looking back, it is hard to believe how dreadful Florida St. played at times last season. The Seminoles scored 36 against Virginia and an even more embarrassing 46 against defensively challenged Wake Forest.  Highly rated freshman Montay Brandon had one of those avert-your-eyes awful seasons. It was amazing how much Leonard Hamilton stuck with him despite his clear offensive struggles. Brandon’s poor performance shows the difference between an old-school coach and a new-school coach. Buzz Williams and Brad Stevens would have never let a player like Brandon waste so many possessions.

But despite these offensive concerns, the real problem was the defense. How did one of the top defensive coaches suddenly forget what he was doing? I think the injury to Ian Miller had a lot to do with it, but the overall team performance was head-scratching. With a healthy Ian Miller, I predict a substantial bounce-back on both ends of the court. But it also depends on Hamilton making better lineup decisions than last season.

Boston College: Notre Dame transfer Alex Dragicevich will add to the team’s depth. But until Boston College starts playing better defense, they won’t make the tournament.

NC State: If you ask Mark Gottfried, he will admit that the lack of depth last year was frustrating. It made it hard to hold legitimate practices. But thanks to a host of defections NC State only has eight scholarship players again. One of those eight players, Jordan Vandenburg has struggled to ever earn playing time and was injured for much of last year. It is possible Vandenburg will break out as a fifth-year senior, but the expectations cannot be that high. The other seven players (including LSU transfer Ralston Turner and JUCO addition Desmond Lee) should all be solid players. But at this point, you have to bank on extreme luck to even put together a decent rotation. No one can get injured. None of the prized recruits can be a bust.

And Mark Gottfried hasn’t exactly been the kind of guy to bring a new crop of recruits together and play top defense right away. NC State probably has a higher upside than some of the teams listed ahead of them, but the downside risk is pretty high too. If everyone (but Vandenburg) comes back, this team will be in much better shape in 2014-15.

Wake Forest: Wait, why is Jeff Bzdelik still the head coach? Senior Travis McKie deserves better.

Georgia Tech: Marcus George-Hunt and Robert Carter were solid scorers as freshman last season and as highly ranked high school recruits, there is no reason to think they won’t make the sophomore leap and become stars this year. Overall Georgia Tech’s offense would be rated higher, but there is a major question mark at the PG slot. Solomon Poole wasn’t ready last year, but the alternatives Corey Heyward and Travis Jorgenson don’t have obvious pedigrees either. Without a strong point-guard and with several offensive liabilities in the rotation, the offense will still be bad.

Clemson: Given that they lose their two best players and have zero players who were elite high school recruits on their roster, I think a lot of preseason predictions will have them even lower than this. There really isn’t anyone on the roster who looks like a likely offensive star. (The only good news is that Clemson was young last year and the sophomore leap should help at least a couple of their freshmen become solid players.) But let’s face it, this is going to be an ugly team to watch. The only reason the model doesn’t have Clemson lower is because of Brad Brownell’s ability to teach defense.

Miami: Give Jim Larranaga credit for what Miami did last year, but this is a rebuilding year. This team was just devastated by graduations and Shane Larkin’s early entry into the draft. I think the lineup-based model may be a little too pessimistic. But the best-case scenario here is probably what Vanderbilt did in the SEC last year.  Don’t count on much from guys like Tony Jekiri and Erik Swoope. Guys who shoot that little rarely become big scorers. I feel bad for Rion Brown.

Virginia Tech: Goodbye Erick Green. Yep, next year isn’t going to be any better.

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The older I get, the more I see that one of the things I love most about sports is the variety of it, the diversity of it and the CHARACTERS. Men’s tennis is at its best in many years because, for the first time in a long time, the top three or four players all have wildly different styles. The Tim Tebow story was fun on so many levels, but one of those levels was that he was just SO DIFFERENT in how he played — I’d say we are entering a great time for quarterbacks, because Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning and Drew Brees and Michael Vick and Cam Newton and Tebow and others are not really alike at all.

-- Joe Posnanski

As a basketball fan, I’ve never understood the division that exists between fans of the NBA and the NCAA. While the NBA has the best basketball players in the world, March Madness is compelling in its own right and as entertaining as anything that happens on the professional level.

In the NBA, the owners of the 30 franchises consider turning a profit and getting an equal shot at the top players a right, regardless of how well (or how poorly) they run their organization and the respective size of their fan-bases. Since every losing team is a few ping pong balls from the rights to a LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Dwight Howard, personnel determines scheme in the NBA.

In contrast, the vast majority of the 344 Division I programs in college basketball have little chance of ever receiving a commitment from a McDonald’s All-American. But instead of petulantly trying to sabotage the sport in a misguided effort to legislate fairness, schools try many creative ways of leveraging the talents of the players they can recruit. As a result, scheme determines personnel in the NCAA.

At Syracuse, Jim Boeheim has made a Hall of Fame career out of running a contrarian scheme, in his case an aggressive 2-3 zone. The Orange traditionally have rosters full of “1.5’s”, 6’3+ combo guards lacking the quickness to defend elite PG’s and the size to defend SG’s, and “3.5’s”, 6’8+ combo forwards lacking the quickness to defend elite SF’s and the size to defend PF’s. However, because Syracuse never plays man defense, the athletic deficiencies of their players are minimized.

So while nearly every NBA team runs a fairly similar system of isolations, pick-and-rolls and man defense, an incredibly diverse array of styles can be found in the college game. On one end of the spectrum, teams like Missouri play four guards and pressure the ball 94 feet for 48 minutes, on the other, teams like Wisconsin run a deliberate motion offense, trying to minimize the number of possessions and shoot at the very end of the shot-clock.

In the NBA, the players are too good for the “40 Minutes of Hell” system (which Mike Anderson has brought to Missouri and Arkansas in the last few years) to be successful. Like Mike Leach’s bizarre pass-happy offense in college football, Anderson’s system, which he learned as a member of Nolan Richardson’s staff in Arkansas in the 1990’s, has philosophical holes that professional athletes can exploit. Nevertheless, that doesn’t make them any less entertaining on the collegiate level.

And with 68 teams set to compete in the NCAA Tournament, there are a lot more surprises in the college game. Even programs ranked in the top-15 like Murray State have barely been on national TV this season.

We have a pretty good idea of how teams like the Pacers and the 76ers match up with the top of the Eastern Conference but not whether an undersized Murray State squad can handle the size of an elite team from a Power Six conference. It’s an open question how Isaiah Canaan’s speed and athleticism translates outside of the Ohio Valley Conference. Non-conference play in college basketball generally ends in late December, so it’s almost impossible to gauge how younger teams like Texas, Washington and Tennessee who have found their groove in the last two months will fare in March.

In the NBA, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Chicago, Miami and Oklahoma City aren’t three of the final four teams left in the playoffs. In the NCAA, as many as two dozen teams have a legitimate shot at making a run at the Final Four.

Of course, in terms of entertainment, none of this makes the NCAA necessarily better or worse than the NBA, just different. But, as Posnanski writes, there’s something to be said for the concept of “different” in the modern sports world. Basketball fans of all stripes should enjoy March Madness; the NBA will still be here in a few weeks.

As an attempt to avoid writing another column about how the Pac-12 is terrible, I’m going to exclude that conference from this discussion.

Sidney Lowe Division – Hope is on the Way

As a head coach you have to sell your fans on something. Either you sell them wins or you sell them hope. For years while Sidney Lowe’s N.C. State teams were blown out, the announcers would praise his next recruiting class and say, “Wait until next year!” These teams don’t necessarily have great recruiting classes ahead, but they do have new coaches, so that’s something.

Providence – First the Friars lost a game to St. John’s where they couldn’t stop the lay-up line. Then they lost a game to Georgetown when they couldn’t score. This is the life of a bad team.

Maryland – I’m not sure if Alex Len’s debut and P’shon Howard’s return will be enough to save Maryland’s season, but the 7’1” Ukrainian Len is 10-for-14 from the floor in two games, and Howard is averaging five assists per game since he returned to the hardwood.

Arkansas – Arkansas’ defense is back forcing turnovers, and the defense has improved from 111^th to 52^nd in the nation. In the SEC, that will win some games.

Penn State – Stephen Bardo put Tim Frazier on his early All-Big Ten team. And I was ready to dismiss it based on the “every bad team has a star” theory. Someone has to score for Penn St., but I’m not sure that means he would crack the rotation for a good team. But Frazier’s assist rate is ridiculous. How can he be earning so many assists when Penn St. is that poor at putting the ball in the basket?

Tennessee – Technically, this is the “unluckiest” BCS team in the land. But you have to wonder if their strong play in Maui was just a fluke. Since taking Memphis to double OT and playing Duke tough, this team has had some very questionable performances.

Texas Tech – Freshman forward Jordan Tolbert should be a nice building block for the future. I’ve already mentioned him twice this year, but when you play as poorly as Texas Tech has, you only get one factoid.

Pat Knight Division – Situation Quickly Becoming Hopeless

Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets made 10 threes and still lost to the worst team in the A10 this weekend. Technically, Georgia Tech has a new coach so they should fall in the Sidney Lowe Division, but no one seems to believe in Brian Gregory.

Boston College – I thought that as the former head coach at Cornell, Steve Donahue might have some insight into how to slow down Harvard. Instead BC got pounded by 21 at home. Look, I know this is basically the youngest team in the country, but there comes a moment in time where you realize you should have brought in a couple of junior college transfers to keep things competitive.

DePaul – A rumor spread recently that DePaul wanted the basketball schools to break off from the Big East. The rumor was that the Blue Demons wanted a new league setup because they have been unable to win in the current alignment. It may be ridiculous, but you have to ask how many losing seasons a team can take. DePaul has the basketball tradition to sell tickets and make money, but not if they are in 16^th place every year.

Nebraska – In the first eight games in Big Ten play Nebraska faces Wisconsin (twice), Ohio St. (twice), Indiana, and Michigan St. Glad you could join us.

Auburn – After UTEP beat Auburn in the Diamond Head Classic, you have to wonder if Tony Barbee isn’t regretting his decision to leave his former team.

South Carolina – This is year No. 4 for Darrin Horn. It is hard to imagine a year No. 5.

Wake Forest – Wake Forest has improved to the point where they can beat Yale by one point at home. Sadly, this is progress.

St. John's – Amir Garrett has five points in three games. If you were hoping his debut would save the St. John’s season, look elsewhere.

South Florida – Augustus Gilchrist, Anthony Collins, Jawanza Poland, and Toarlyn Fitzpatrick have all missed games this year for USF, but with a full lineup, the team has beaten Cleveland St., played Southern Miss and Connecticut close, and defeated Rutgers. I’m not quite willing to endorse this team as dangerous, but I am pleasantly surprised with the recent trend. 

Clemson – This team had lost a number of close games, so I was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. Then they played in the Diamond Head Classic and lost to UTEP and Hawaii while squeaking by Southern Illinois in OT. I no longer hold much hope. Thanks to Brad Brownell’s defense (and a brutal pace) they’ll be competitive in the ACC. But this is the worst offensive team at Clemson in the last 10 years.

Villanova – This is the worst defensive team at Villanova in the last 10 years. I understand that the team lost some key players to graduation, but Jay Wright is a much better coach than what we have seen so far.

Tim Welsh Division – Not terrible, but not good enough that I care

Rutgers – In Rutgers' upset victory over Florida, Bill Raftery was trying his best to praise both teams but you could tell it was just little more sincere when Rutgers made a big shot. People talk about how referees suffer from a subconscious bias in favor of the home team, and I think it isn’t just the referees who can get swept up in the moment. But you know what? I don’t think there is a coach in America that gets more out of emotion than Mike Rice. He gets his team playing with an “us-against-the-world” attitude in so many games, and with former Rutgers player Mike Rosario coming to town, it was almost too easy for him to motivate his team against Florida.

Iowa – I am now a huge fan of Roy Marble. After his technical cut a 12 point lead to 6 points against Wisconsin, he knew he needed to hit a clutch basket, and he did. But I’m not quite sold on Iowa yet. Iowa is the fastest paced team in the Big Ten, but I fear they are doing it the wrong way. The easiest way to get a fast tempo is to let the other team get wide open shots early in the possession, and for most of the season, that’s what Iowa has done. Even in the upset of Wisconsin, the Badgers got plenty of wide open looks. Iowa’s defense has to get better for this team to become a consistent winner.

Georgia – This team has talent. I still love PG Gerald Robinson and freshman Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is fantastic.  But Mark Fox may have over-scheduled. You can’t lose two players to the NBA at Georgia and play this tough a schedule.

Ole Miss – There is no shame in losing to Southern Miss. There is no shame in losing to Dayton. And there is surprisingly no shame in losing to Middle Tennessee this year. But an SEC team can’t go 0-3 against those teams if it wants to make the tournament.

LSU – Don’t look now but LSU has a top-25 defense.

Iowa State – Don’t read too much into the narrow one point win over Mississippi Valley St. Royce White had the flu and played only three minutes.

Minnesota – Against Illinois, the Gophers led by two in the final minute and missed the front end of a one-and-one, allowing Illinois to tie the game. Illinois eventually won in double overtime. At Michigan, trailing by one with 64 seconds left, the Gophers had a chance to take the lead. But Minnesota was called for a shot-clock violation and the Wolverines hung on. I’ve watched Tubby Smith for a number of years, and I’ve never seen him look more angry than he did after that shot-clock violation. The Gophers have now lost 12 of their last 13 Big Ten games, and right now they cannot find a way to win a league game.

Northwestern – Penn St.’s basketball team is usually in the lower half of the Big Ten. But they’ve owned Northwestern. Northwestern had lost six straight to the Nittany Lions. And in the last 11 games, Northwestern had only beat Penn St. one time, by two points in 2007. So while Sunday’s game, a 68-56 win for Northwestern over Penn St. might not mean much to you, it meant a lot to the folks in Evanston.

NC State – I rarely say that coaches are playing the “wrong” players. They see all the hustle plays and the hard work in practice that we miss. But I think Sidney Lowe clearly had no idea how to manage this team. Mark Gottfried has turned NC State’s offense around this year by simply featuring two guys that were already on the roster, CJ Williams and Richard Howell. Now if only Gottfried could only do something about the team’s hideous lack of defense.

Notre Dame – Watching Bob Knight call Notre Dame’s upset of Pittsburgh, he frequently called Notre Dame’s shots “bad shots”. They were unnecessary jumpers early in the shot clock. Of course those shots are the Mike Brey offense.

Texas A&M – The Aggies have been puzzling terrible since Khris Middleton returned. And senior Dash Harris is still not very good.

Oklahoma State – Freshman Cezar Guerrero made eight threes in Oklahoma St.’s miraculous comeback against Texas - SA, and he’s also made big shots in other game this season like the double OT victory against Southern Miss. Now I realize he hasn’t been dominant in every game. And I realize he wants to be a true PG and set his teammates up. But why wasn’t he taking the big shot late in the game against Virginia Tech? I’ve seen enough Keiton Page misses to last a lifetime, and Le’Bryan Nash’s late three point attempt was completely unnecessary. Le’Bryan Nash may have received all the hype, but Guerrero is the freshmen who I want to see more of in Stillwater.

Kelvin Sampson Division – Nice start, but the ending could be rough

Oklahoma – A classic Ken Pomeroy idea is that good free throw shooters eventually become great three point shooters. But Steven Pledger’s transformation into a dominant shooter from beyond the arc still qualifies as remarkable. Unfortunately he missed a shot that would have won the game vs Cincinnati. And I suspect Big 12 play will bring his percentage down further. But for now, Oklahoma fans are enjoying the ride.

West Virginia – With no other veteran options to turn to, I think Deniz Kilicli and Daryl Bryant might just cause Bob Huggins to go insane this year.

Seton Hall – I still have no feel for the Pirates. The blowout win against West Virginia was nice but given all the freshmen in the Mountaineer’s lineup, I don’t want to give Seton Hall too much credit for that win. And Seton Hall’s loss to Syracuse didn’t tell me much either. The Pirates actually lost that game last season when they went to Syracuse and took the Orange behind the woodshed. The Orange were all too eager to get revenge.

Virginia Tech – Virginia Tech might be on the bubble again this year, but at least it feels like they upgraded their non-conference schedule. Two games against Oklahoma St., a game against Kansas St., a game against Minnesota, and a February date with BYU should give the committee some data to work with even if the ACC is down.

Illinois – I’ve made a big deal of the fact that Bruce Weber’s teams are perennially “unlucky”. But for the first time since 2005, Illinois has a positive “luck” rating on kenpom.com. After years of lacking clutch performance, Illinois has actually won the close games this year.

Kansas State – Kansas lacks depth, Missouri lacks size, and Baylor lacks toughness, so I am very curious to see how many games Kansas St. can win with its great offensive rebounding this year.

Marquette – I had trouble paying attention to the Marquette vs Vanderbilt game because it was such a blowout win for Vanderbilt, but one theme seemed to be that zone defense could shut down Marquette’s drive-centered offense. That seems plausible, particularly given that this is Marquette’s worst three point shooting team under Buzz Williams. And the biggest zone test of the season, Syracuse, is coming up on Saturday.

Mississippi State – There is every reason to be optimistic about this team, but then you see Renardo Sidney get a technical that essentially cost the team the game against Baylor and you shake your head. I almost feel sorry for Sidney at this point. I hate that when a sports figure becomes a villain (as he did when he fought a teammate in the stands last year), that we just look for every excuse to criticize. But Sidney really has brought this on himself.

John Chaney Division – Better than their record

Miami (FL) – If I was a Miami fan, I would be happy to see Reggie Johnson return to the floor, but nervous to see DeQuan Jones back on the court. Jones has been a turnover machine on offense, and unless he accepts a role as a defensive stopper, I would be concerned he will cause more harm than good.

Alabama – Great defense and no offense is a recipe for an inconsistent season. Just ask Florida St.

Florida State – Once again Florida St. has one of the top defenses in the country, and once again the offense is letting the team down. The 3^rd OT against Princeton on Friday was a nice metaphor. Even though various players had hit big shots to send the game to a 3^rd overtime, Florida St.’s players seemed reluctant to take the big shot. Instead they tried to make one pass too many, and three live ball steals by Princeton finally sealed the upset for the Ivy league squad.

Cincinnati –Yancy Gates was struggling before the brawl, and I wonder if the suspensions didn’t happen at the perfect time. Early this season Cincinnati had wasted too many possession trying to force it to Gates in the post. There is plenty of talent on this team, and the suspensions helped the Bearcats to remember that there are other ways to score. It sounds crazy, but the brawl may have been a blessing in disguise.

Vanderbilt – Did Kevin Stallings over-schedule? I don’t think so. For a team that brought almost everyone back, the goal was to build a strong resume. But Vanderbilt’s opponents just didn’t get the message that the veteran team is supposed to win in November and December. With Ezili back, I expect Vandy to creep back into the discussion somewhere, but I’m not as optimistic as some people.  They already lost to Indiana St. with him in the lineup.

Purdue – Normally, a close win at Iowa is a bad sign, but for a Purdue team that had blown leads and failed to execute in close games, the narrow victory last week was just what the doctor ordered.

Florida – I don’t want to pile on the Mike Rosario stories. Obviously he did not see himself sitting on the bench for Florida and watching the Gators lose to the Rutgers team he transferred out of. So I’ll move to the other Florida topic, Patric Young. Young was high on draft lists and was receiving a lot of hype this preseason. But Ken Pomeroy expressed doubt that Patric Young would live up to those expectations based on his willingness to defer to teammates, using only 10% of the possessions when on the floor last season. So now that Young is using 20% of his team’s possessions this year, does that count as a breakout season or not? Young’s late rebound and bucket against Rutgers was a huge basket for Florida and helped send the game to OT. But you can’t help but feel that if Young played better and more aggressively, Florida might have blown Rutgers out of the water.

Rollie Massimino Division - Teams that might still peak late

There’s nothing dominant on these team’s resumes, but give them time.

Michigan – Tim Hardaway Jr. was 1-for-14 from the floor, but with less than a minute to go at Minnesota and his team nursing a one point lead, he hit the game clinching shot. The computers don’t love this team yet, but I don’t think John Beilein’s offense was designed to blow out bad teams. Once this team frustrates Ohio St. and Indiana, the power ranking will go back up.

Texas – I am shocked Texas has remained ranked in the Top 30 of the Pomeroy rankings. And I still see a long month ahead as they learn to go on the road in the Big 12. But as I said a couple of weeks ago, if young teams peak late, keep your eye on Texas.

Connecticut – The poor Sagarin and Pomeroy rankings don’t bother me. This team is rapidly improving. Andre Drummond is 34 of 45 in his last 5 games and this team looks nothing like the squad that struggled in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament earlier this year.

Gene Keady Division – Regular season dominance, post-season heartbreak

Virginia – I enjoyed listening to Tim Brando say that Virginia might be the third best team in the ACC while showing highlights of them barely squeaking by winless Towson.

Wisconsin – Somewhere a UNLV player was punching in his TV set and asking why Ben Brust had to hit 9 threes against them and yet the Badgers were only 3-for-28 from deep against Iowa. At what point in a 3 of 28 performance do you decide an open three is not the best shot and try for something else?

Duke – Everyone wants to criticize Duke’s point guard play. The real problem is that this is Duke’s worst defensive team in the last 10 years.

Bob Knight Division – Living off past glory

I don’t dislike any of these teams. (Well, maybe Pittsburgh). But I’d like to see more this season before I decide they are great.

Pittsburgh – Is there some sort of ACC curse? Ever since the announcement that Pitt was leaving the Big East, their amazing home court advantage has disappeared.

Michigan State – I remain annoyed at Wisconsin’s strategy when leading by 20 points in their victory over Nebraska. Wisconsin’s subs continued to run a methodical offense, probing for the best possible shot. It is a testament to Bo Ryan that his players never give in and play lazy basketball. But part of me feels it is also bad sportsmanship. A 51 possession game might be excusable when you are winning a close game and need to value every possession. But when you win by 24 as the Badgers did, I think it is bad form to hold the basketball and punish your opponent that way. So yes, this is a long way of saying that once again the margin-of-victory numbers like Wisconsin more than Michigan St. The Badgers beat the Huskers by 24, while Michigan St. beat the Huskers by 13. But I still need to see Wisconsin beat Michigan St. before I believe those margin-of-victory numbers are meaningful.

Louisville – This week I heard a lot of people say how “there is no way Louisville is the 4^th best team in America.” (Dick Vitale was a prime example, but he wasn’t the only one.) But what’s the point of this statement? The polls aren’t measuring the top teams in the country. No one believes that for a second. The polls list the teams that haven’t lost much, weighted some by preseason expectations. Shockingly, this does not line up with common sense. If you wanted to do something, criticize Louisville for not going on the road early in the season, but don’t insult kids for having won the games they played. The box score against Kentucky was insane. Russ Smith was 10-20 from the field, while everyone else on Louisville was 10-52.

Kansas – Because everyone loves Thomas Robinson’s dunking ability, I think people fail to realize how fantastic he is at grabbing defensive rebounds. And now that his free throw shooting has improved, he is the complete package.

Dean Smith Division

Georgetown – There is a lot of talk about the Hoyas' freshmen, but the real advantage they bring is height and wingspan. And because of that size, this year’s Georgetown team is playing the best defense since Roy Hibbert graduated.

Missouri – The Tigers refused to double-team Illinois’ Meyer’s Leonard and it almost cost them the game. And now I’m really curious to see how Missouri performs against some Big 12 front lines. If the Jayhawks had Wayne Simeon (circa 2005), I could see them absolutely demolishing the Tigers in the paint. But who is the dominant Big 12 player who can force the mismatch this year?

Indiana – After the Kentucky win, people wrote how Indiana was a little too dependent on threes to be a true national threat. But Indiana is shooting 45% from deep this year, and they should be taking a lot of open threes against a team like Kentucky. Jordan Hulls is as pure a shooter as there is in college basketball, and Christian Watford has been remarkably good from three point range this year. Sure, there will always be nights, like the loss at Michigan St. where Jordan Hulls is struggling, and the Hoosiers will get beat.  But three pointers are only part of the equation. Indiana only needed five threes to beat Ohio St, and they now have the best two resumes wins of any team in the country.

John Wooden Division

Syracuse – Syracuse is first in the nation in block percentage and steal percentage. The steals aren’t a surprise. The whole point of the zone defense is to get steals. But after struggling last season, Fab Melo has become an elite shot blocker this year. Right now the only BCS player with a better block rate than Melo is Kentucky’s Anthony Davis.

Baylor – The win against Mississippi St. may not have been pretty, but when Scott Drew can get his team to win games 54-52, the sky is the limit for this team. Right now this is the best defensive team head coach Scott Drew has ever had. And unlike 2010, when Drew was depending on Epke Udoh in the middle to shut opponents down, this year’s squad is also great at forcing turnovers.

Ohio State – Ohio St. wanted Jared Sullinger to touch the ball late against Indiana, but those things are hard to force. Any opponent can take away a post player if they want to. Post players might win the game over 40 minutes, but you usually need a guard to make a special play to win in the final seconds. And while Aaron Craft is one of the best defenders in the nation and a solid facilitator in the offense, he is not really a shot-creator yet.

North Carolina – It feels like this team hasn’t played a meaningful game in a month. And arguably they have not. Long Beach St. was good, but is not really in UNC’s league, and Texas was way too young. The Tar Heels will probably eventually slide back into the top spot in the polls, but when will they get their credibility back with the national media?

Kentucky – Marquis Teague was hyped as the next John Calipari point guard. Anthony Davis was hyped as a block-machine and the #1 ranked recruit coming out of high school. Even Kyle Wiltjer was receiving extra hype since his dual citizenship allowed him to play for Canada in international events. But somehow, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist sort of slid under the radar in the hype machine. But after his 24 point, 19 point performance against Louisville, I think it is fair to say no one will overlook him anymore.