Today I present my lineup-based model’s projections for the Big Ten in 2013-2014. While the top of the Big Ten remains strong, the league lacks the depth it had last season.

As always, these won’t necessarily be the final numbers. Last week I presented my model’s projections for the ACC and already two teams have meaningfully improved. First, Wakes Forest added a three point-shooting specialist in Robert Morris transfer Coron Williams. Williams will be eligible immediately as a graduate school transfer and should instantly upgrade the Wake Forest offense. Meanwhile, Miami added Kansas St. transfer Angel Rodriguez and he may be able to get a family hardship waiver to play next year.

Of course it isn’t clear whether Rodriguez should play next year for Miami. Even if he plays, Miami is still going to be behind NC State in my projections and well outside the NCAA bubble. (While the Wolfpack have more talent, Jim Larranaga is the better coach which puts Miami in striking distance of NC State.) That might suggest Miami should save Rodriguez until the following season. On the other hand, Rodriguez has two years of eligibility left and the young Miami players might develop better with a true PG on the floor. Thus it may be worth getting Rodriguez on the court next season even if the NCAA tournament is out of reach.

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Michigan St.: Derrick Nix posted surprisingly low block numbers for a post-player last season and Adreian Payne was by far the better defensive rebounder. Thus the model doesn’t project a major defensive drop-off for the Spartans.

The departure of Nix may also make the offense run more smoothly. With Nix departing Branden Dawson will get a chance to play more minutes at the power forward spot which I truly believe is his natural college position. When Dawson played more minutes on the perimeter last year, his offensive rebounding numbers slipped.

Michigan:  Mitch McGary, Jordan Morgan, Glen Robinson, Nik Stauskas, and super PG recruit Derrick Walton mean Michigan will be a Top 10 team nationally again.

Wisconsin: As of May 5^th on Verbal Commits, Wisconsin has 14 players on scholarship for next year. Did the Badgers actually over-sign? Is this the sign of the apocalypse? According to Twitter the answer is no. One of the walk-on freshman was given a free ride last year.

With Josh Gasser, Ben Brust, Traevon Jackson, Frank Kaminsky, and Sam Dekker, Wisconsin should have a dominant offense again, even if the defense takes a bit of a hit with the loss of so many quality post players. And as always with Wisconsin’s depth, they can bring Top 100 freshman Nigel Hayes along slowly and limit his mistakes. Of course we all expect Wisconsin to dominate the regular season and disappoint again in the tournament. That is what Bo Ryan does.

Ohio St: I think most experts are overrating the Buckeyes because they are overlooking how important DeShaun Thomas was to the Ohio St. offense last season. The same people who expect Georgetown to fall off the map without Otto Porter don’t seem to be dropping the Buckeyes much at all. But Thomas was responsible for a much larger portion of the Ohio St. offense. With all the key defensive players back, the model thinks Ohio St. will have the best defense in the nation. But the offense will probably struggle at times next season.

Iowa: Aaron White and Roy Marble are already stars. Mike Gesell and Adam Woodbury were Top 100 recruits out of high school and both should make a significant sophomore year leap. Plus Josh Oglesby should bounce back from a subpar season. Oglesby shot 37% from three two years ago, but only 27% last season. And with virtually the entire rotation coming back, Iowa won’t have to break in a bunch of new freshmen. Overall that is a formula for an offense that should be substantially improved. This is the season Fran McCaffery finally breaks into the top of the Big Ten.

Indiana: I may have the most pessimistic projections in the nation for Indiana next year, but let me explain what the model is thinking. Essentially everyone who has Indiana in the Top 25 is saying this, “Well they aren’t going to fall that much. They still have some talented players coming in. They’ll still be pretty good.” But having talented players doesn’t ensure anything. What allows coaches to reload and stay in the Top 25 is teaching elite defense to young players. The reason Kansas is projected as a Top 25 team has everything to do with the defense. And Tom Crean doesn’t have a great defensive track record. His only elite defensive teams have come when he has had veteran squads at Indiana and Marquette. He isn’t that good at getting young players to play great defense immediately.

And anyone who studies college basketball closely realizes that even teams with loads of talent can take time to gel offensively. Look no further than North Carolina last year. They were 11^th in last year’s AP preseason poll because they were loaded with Top 100 recruits. But I had the Tar Heels 26^th in my preseason rankings and they finished with the 30^th best margin-of-victory numbers in the nation. The reality is, if you are going to rely on recruits outside the Top 20 (and only Noah Vonleh is a Top 20 recruit,) it usually takes time for those players to figure out the college game.

Even the late transfer of Remy Abell hurts. While Abell didn’t seem to do much against good teams last year, he did show signs of an outside shooting touch. Abell’s departure drops Indiana to a .500 team in my model. The future is still bright for the Hoosiers, especially in 2014-2015. And Indiana will likely be a tournament team in 2013-2014. But I disagree with folks who have the Hoosiers in their Top 25.

Purdue: After Indiana, I am rather pessimistic about the rest of the league. While most of the teams have smart coaches who will get their teams to play good enough defense to be competitive, the talent difference between the top and bottom of the league is pretty significant.

The best news for Purdue is that the Boilermakers gave fully 44% of their minutes to freshmen last year. That investment in young players should pay off this season. Most notably, tons of prognosticators are in love with AJ Hammons potential. Clearly many of the freshmen mistakes that plagued the team last season should be eradicated this year.

But this team simply lacks the depth to compete with the top teams in the league on a consistent basis. The slew of recent transfers is actually a bit of mixed bag in that regard. Even if Anthony Johnson and Jacob Lawson had returned, that wouldn’t have helped a lot. Anthony Johnson improved his free throw shooting last year, but still struggled mightily with his shot, posting an ORtg of 89. And Lawson basically never put up shots. Thus the loss of those two players isn’t major. But the transfer of Sandi Marcius will matter. Even if Hammons is the future of the team, Marcius would have provided needed depth in the paint. And on a roster full of improving young players, but plenty of question marks, the loss of a dependable option is costly.

The model also assumes some improvement for the Purdue defense based on Matt Painter’s early career success. But the defense has been trending in the wrong direction in recent seasons, and if that continues, Purdue could finish even lower in the standings.

Illinois, Minnesota, and Penn St.: Let’s start with the offenses. For all three teams the backcourt will be the strength. Penn St. probably has the best back-court with Tim Frazier (returning from injury), DJ Newbill, and Jermaine Marshall. But Minnesota’s unit will also be strong. Andre Hollins, Austin Hollins, and Joe Coleman all played well at times last year. Illinois’ backcourt will be the weakest, but Tracy Abrams, Joseph Bertrand, and Drake transfer Rayvonte Rice (a high volume shooter who should be more efficient in a more limited role) will still be quality Big Ten players.

But the differences are much more notable in the front-court. Penn St.’s offensive options in the post are pitiful. Ross Travis is probably the best option, but his 87 ORtg last year was dreadful. And none of the Nittany Lions other post options were even three star athletes out of high school. Certainly Penn St. will be as perimeter-oriented as possible next season, but the front-court looks like a huge offensive liability.

Minnesota brings back Elliot Eliason who had moments last year, but who shot so little he cannot be counted on to carry the load. And while Mo Walker continues to have potential, after missing a year and a half with injury, he struggled last season. And that means plenty of minutes for the highly inefficient Oto Osenieks or unranked recruit Charlie Buggs who red-shirted last season.

And suddenly here is where Illinois stands out. Nnanna Egwu isn’t a star by any means, but he had more offensive game last year than any of Minnesota or Penn St.’s post-players. And Illinois St. graduate school transfer Jon Ekey is one of those sneaky useful pickups. He didn’t score a lot last year, but he was super-efficient, and he also has an outside game. Ekey actually made 59 threes two years ago while shooting 40% from deep. Ekey and the improving Myke Henry will play a lot of stretch-4 minutes for Illinois next season.

Thus while none of these teams have great front-courts, Illinois can expect the most offense from its front-court, and Penn St. can expect almost nothing, which is why you see the offensive prediction you see above.

On defense Penn St. was miserable last season and without any true post options, expect more of the same. Illinois should drop-off some, but don’t expect a huge drop-off. The departing Sam McLaurin and Tyler Griffey were dreadful defensive rebounders. Minnesota is the real wild-card here, as it is a bit hard to project how Richard Pitino will do in his first season.

Final Note: I mentioned on Twitter a few weeks ago that Illinois was a 6-12 team. But the addition of Jon Ekey really is a big deal in the lineup based model. Instead of needing to rely on unranked recruits Austin Colbert and Maverick Morgan to play major minutes in the post as freshmen, with Ekey available Illinois can break those two players into the lineup more slowly.

Northwestern: Even if Bill Carmody had kept his job, this was going to be a different Northwestern team this year. With the teams three most efficient players graduating, there simply were not going to be enough great outside shooters to run the offense Carmody loved. (To some degree, there were not a lot of great outside shooters last year. It was Northwestern’s worst three point shooting season since 2007.) So Northwestern was going to have to try to re-invent itself around the plethora of “project” big men on the roster. New head coach Chris Collins at least has the luxury of an established point-guard and he welcomes Drew Crawford back for a fifth season of eligibility. But beyond those two players, basically everyone else is projected to have an ORtg below 100. And that means Collins has his work cut out for him. I truly believe Collins will get Northwestern to the NCAA tournament. But give him some time to bring in his players.

Nebraska: Nebraska returns just 52% of its possessions from last year which should slow the momentum Tim Miles was building late in the season. JUCO transfers Leslee Smith and Deverell Biggs, Texas Tech transfer Terran Petteway, and Florida transfer Walter Pitchford should add some experience which might help a little. But none of them would start for a good team in the Big Ten. (Petteway had a hideous 75 ORtg in limited minutes for Texas Tech. I remember watching him two years ago and thinking that he had no idea what a good shot was. Perhaps that is correctable, but he was still dreadful.) Realistically, this is still the beginning of the rebuilding project. Tim Miles needs to give a lot of minutes to his young players next year and build for 2015-2016.

Click here for Part 1.

Virginia: I am worried about this Virginia projection. It depends critically on how Top 100 recruit, freshman point guard London Perrantes plays. But on paper, everything is coming together for Virginia. They have their three top scorers (really the only guys who scored at all), back from last year. Former Top 100 recruit Mike Tobey should be ready for that sophomore year leap in production. They add depth with South Carolina transfer Anthony Gill. Malcolm Brogdon (who missed the entire season) and Darion Atkins should be back healthy. And Virginia played very good basketball in conference games last year.

Georgetown: Greg Whittington should return from an academic suspension, incoming transfer Josh Smith is a dominant offensive player, and Georgetown brings back the majority of the players from a dominant defensive team. Thus picking the Hoyas for the Top 25 makes sense even without Otto Porter. But I am very concerned how much the offense will depend on mid-year transfer Josh Smith. Smith is a natural offensive player, and seems like the perfect high-post player to make the Georgetown offense flow. But will he be able to integrate into the lineup (and get in shape) for a 3 month run? Statistically he looks like a good fit, but betting on Josh Smith has been a bad bet the last two seasons.

Iowa: Iowa isn’t going to blow you out of the water with Top 100 recruits. But the majority of the lineup that went to the NIT final will be back. The time for winning is now. Don’t forget that the team welcomes Wisconsin transfer Jarrod Uthoff.

Ohio St: The loss of DeShaun Thomas shouldn’t hurt the Buckeye defense that much. And because players like Sam Thompson and LaQuinton Ross are only starting to show signs of how good they can be, the offense might not slip that much either.

Colorado: Another very young but talented team last year. People are raving about how good Josh Scott could be in 2013-2014.

Memphis: The five Memphis seniors are great players and this might be Josh Pastner’s best team. But the addition of a dominant recruiting class should be the x-factor that gets the team deeper into the tournament this year. If Tarik Black transfers (which is speculated), Memphis might fall a little bit in these projections, but not that much. This team has depth.

Creighton: They are only here if Doug McDermott comes back.

Connecticut: The best thing about your seniors transferring out is that all your main talent has eligibility left.

Syracuse: On paper they have the pieces they need to replace their departing stars. Duke transfer Michael Gbinije should be a nice wing player to replace James Southerland. Tyler Ennis can step in at point-guard. But if Michael Carter-Williams isn’t back (what I project above), Trevor Cooney is still going to be logging major minutes. The lack of options on the perimeter is still a concern.

UCLA: The Wear twins are going to be seniors next year. It only seems like we’ve been talking about them forever because of the transfer season.  I’m assuming Kyle Anderson sticks around, because where is he going to go? Between Anderson, a healthy Jordan Adams, and a more developed Tony Parker, UCLA has enough talent to compete for a Pac-12 title again. This may seem like a low ranking given what UCLA brings back, but remember UCLA was only 47^th in the Pomeroy Rankings last year. I’m predicting they will be better on offense and defense.

Alabama: This might be my most unorthodox Top 25 pick. Anthony Grant teaches outstanding defense, so Alabama will always be competitive in that area. And Bama brings just about everyone back, so expect a more coherent offense from the start of the season. There is no excuse for losing to Mercer or Tulane this season. The model particularly expects Devonta Pollard to take a big step forward. The freshman forward often looked unprepared last year, but he was a Top 25 recruit out of high school, and he should develop into a more polished post player. Plus Alabama adds two more Top 100 forwards to the rotation, which should help as well. My biggest concern is that far too often in recent seasons, Grant’s returning upperclassman haven’t delivered. Last year it was Andrew Steele’s injuries that caused him to fall apart and miss the end of the season. In previous seasons it was off-court issues that derailed the team. But on paper, there is no reason Alabama shouldn’t take a step forward and become an elite team next year.

Pittsburgh: It really helps that Pittsburgh can develop underclassmen to replace its seniors. Tray Woodall is gone, but James Robinson played point guard very well last season, and should keep the team playing at a high level.

New Mexico: The starting five from the MWC champs could have been back if not for the early entry of Tony Snell. But even without Snell or head coach Steve Alford, the experience the other four starters have working together should ensure another strong season. New head coach Craig Neal might not have the most credentials, but all he has to do is make sure the starters don’t transfer, and New Mexico will compete for a MWC championship again.

Tennessee: The preseason loss of Jeronne Maymon derailed Tennessee’s plans. But with Maymon, Jarnell Stokes, Trae Golden, and Jordan McRae, Tennessee has an impressive lineup coming back.

Kansas: A very good comparison for the 2014 Jayhawks might be the 2013 Tar Heels. I fully expect Bill Self to make Perry Ellis into a high volume scorer next season, just as I thought James McAdoo would become a star last year. And there are some impact recruits like Wayne Selden. But this is still a complete rebuild on offense. Bill Self’s teams always play outstanding defense, and he’ll need that to stay in the Top 25. Kansas could desperately use Andrew Wiggins to commit to the school if they want to win a 10^th straight Big 12 title, but it helps that the rest of the conference should be down next year.

Missing

Wichita St.: Last year Gregg Marshall returned only 35% of his minutes so with 54% of his minutes returning this year, winning should be a piece of cake. Seriously, if he can build another dominant team with unheralded recruits, he might be the best coach on the planet.

Indiana: The Hoosiers have a lot of good pieces, but the model doesn’t like how they fit together. It concludes based on last year’s substitution patterns that Yogi Ferrell, Jeremy Hollowell, Remy Abell, and Will Sheehey will see plenty of action. And they just aren’t the most effective offensive players. Ideally the younger players will see a lot of playing time early, and some of them will become stars, but it should be a transition year.

Miami: The Hurricanes don’t have enough incoming talent to replace what they lose.

Providence: The model questions whether Ed Cooley is a good enough defensive coach. Personally, based on what Providence did late in the year, I think they probably will have a solid defensive team next season. But getting elite talent to commit to defense isn’t easy. It certainly didn’t happen in January this year. And if Ricardo Ledo goes pro, they aren’t even in the conversation.

VCU: Troy Daniels (and his 124 made three pointers) is gone, and this isn’t a team loaded with elite talent. But the system should keep them in the Top 25 discussion again next year.

St. Louis: Very close.

Gonzaga: Sam Dower was a solid backup forward, but it is really asking too much for him to replace Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris. Losing two high volume shooters is going to lower the efficiency of all the returning players.

Oregon: They lose a ton of value with their seniors. They could have really used that Aaron Gordon commitment.

Mississippi: Marshall Henderson is back, but three key starters are gone.

UNLV: Mike Moser may be transferring to Washington, but even if Moser comes back, they lost a lot of production this off-season.

St. John’s: D’Angelo Harrison says he wants to return to the team, and they will be better than people think.

Maryland: Even without Alex Len they will be an upper division ACC team.

Villanova: Lots of solid pieces.

Coming in the next three months:

1)      Updated rankings when early entrant decisions become final.

2)      Where the lineup-based model went right and wrong in year one, and how it can be improved.

3)      Conference projections for the top conferences. See the shockingly low projections for teams like Temple and Oregon.

Conference Performance

There are four Big Ten teams in the Sweet Sixteen and Charles Barkley is eating crow. But has the Big Ten done anything yet? After all, the Big Ten earned a lot of highly protected seeds in the tournament. As I have done in previous years, today I look at which conferences have actually exceeded seed expectations.  What are seed expectations? Based on past tournaments, here are how many games each seed has traditionally won in the field of 64:

(I’m ignoring the opening round. For teams that played in the opening round, I give them half-the expectation. So La Salle was expected to win 0.13 games in the round of 64.)

The next table shows how many wins each conference should have been expected to get in this tournament based on seeding, and how many wins each conference has so far. I also list the number of teams still alive in the tournament.

The Big Ten needs just two more wins to exceed traditional seed expectations, and with four teams still alive, that seems quite plausible. The A10, Pac-12, SEC and MVC have already exceeded expectations in the tournament.

The Big 12 has been the biggest disappointment in the tournament by far. With just three wins through two rounds, even if Kansas wins the national title, the league cannot match pre-tournament expectations. The Big East has also been a big disappointment. While the league was a perfect 3-0 in the round of 32, it was only 3-5 in the previous round. Other disappointments include the WCC and MWC.

Of course, dominating the early rounds of the tournament may not mean that much if the Big Ten doesn’t win a national title.

Ice Water in His Veins

Jim Nance, “Can we just have great games the rest of the tournament?” Apparently that wasn’t too much to ask. Sunday was easily the best day of the tournament so far.

We start in Dayton. Ohio St.’s Aaron Craft was not having a perfect game. He missed the front end of two one-and-ones. He went for a steal, but couldn’t corral it, which caused his teammate to commit a foul. And as he dribbled the ball in a tie game in the final seconds, it seemed like he was wasting too much time. Was there enough time to get to the rim? Was there enough time to kick to a teammate? Craft was only a 29 percent three-point shooter and he probably shouldn’t force a shot here. It didn’t matter. With ice water in his veins Craft nailed the buzzer beating three. It wasn’t clear if that was the first choice. But when Iowa St. switched and left Georges Niang on Craft, and when Niang sagged bad to prevent the drive, Craft stepped up with the buzzer beating shot.

Meanwhile, Temple seemed to have the perfect game-plan to beat Indiana. As Wisconsin had proven, the way you frustrate Indiana is by slowing the game down. I thought a sequence with nine minutes left in the second half showed it perfectly. Jordan Hulls (injured and heroically returning to action with a vest on to protect his injured shoulder) hit a huge three pointer to pull Indiana within one point. And it seemed like Indiana was about to have one of its patented blitzes. But with two players trapping the ball mid-court, Temple didn’t panic. They passed the ball around the perimeter and then made the extra pass to get TJ Dileo a look at a lay-up. Dileo missed, but grabbed his own rebound and kicked it out. Then Temple passed on two great looks at jump shots and fed Anthony Lee for a beautiful lay-up. By making at least 3 extra passes on the possession, Temple worked 44 seconds off the clock, scored, and prevented Indiana from gaining any rhythm offensively.

But then something changed. While Indiana had been stymied by the slow pace against Butler, Minnesota, and Wisconsin twice, the Hoosiers refused to let it happen again.  Zeller and Oladipo worked their way to the free throw line to give Indiana the lead. And then, in a must-score situation (not wanting to hand a one point lead to Temple with the chance at the final shot), Victor Oladipo rose to the occasion. Oladipo is a player who makes less than one three point shot per game. But with ice water in his veins, Oladipo nailed a three that made the margin 4 points and sealed the Hoosiers victory.

Elsewhere, ACC champion Miami was not having a vintage day. After some early success feeding Tonye Jekiri (of all people), point guard Shane Larkin was not having much success feeding his big players for easy shots. And with Durand Scott struggling, it seemed like Illinois might be prepared to pull the upset. Tracy Abrams had just drove for a wide-open lay-up after Larkin made a huge mistake defensively and followed behind a screen. And Brandon Paul had just followed it up with a huge drive for a dunk to give Illinois the lead. And that’s when Shane Larkin, with ice water in his veins did it again. The ACC player-of-the-year stepped back for a three point attempt and nailed it to give his team the lead. Free throws sealed it.

And what about La Salle. After Ole Miss had started to dictate its advantage in the paint following layups by Nick Williams and Reginald Buckner, the Ole Miss lead had swelled to 5 with just 4:15 left. That’s when La Salle’s Sam Mills caught the ball in transition and nailed a three pointer while drawing contact. It looked like a chance for a four point play, but it turned into a five point play when Mills’ missed free throw was rebounded and put-back in by teammate Jerrell Wright. In a moment’s time, the five point lead was gone. And in the final seconds, La Salle seized the moment.

Seth Greenberg loved to use short rotations at Virginia Tech. He believed it gave him the best chance to win. But that made a player like Tyrone Garland the victim. Garland played just 10 minutes per game as a sophomore at Virginia Tech, (at least in part because of his poor shooting numbers.) But Garland believed he had so much more to give. He left Virginia Tech mid-semester and joined La Salle at mid-season this year. And as I noted three weeks ago, La Salle became a better team with Garland in the lineup. They went from being something near the 63rd best team in the nation, to one of the nation’s Top 40. But Garland still wasn’t a great three point shooter. The turnaround, if anywhere, was in La Salle’s defense. And so it came down to the final seconds. La Salle drove and kicked the ball out to Garland. Almost everyone takes the three point shot in that opportunity. And even if it misses, there is a chance for an offensive rebound. But Garland is not a great outside shooter. So without the above ice water, he chose the smart play. He drove to the right side of the key, hung in the air, and banked home the game winning shot.

Four of the best games of the tournament in one day, and I haven’t even talked about the first 15-seed in NCAA tournament history advancing to the Sweet 16 yet.

Other Notes

-During the Illinois-Miami game Nnanna Egwu tried to back down Reggie Johnson in the post. “He might as well have tried to push over the stanchion.”

-I thought Charles Barkley nailed it regarding Ben Howland leaving UCLA. “Ben Howland is a good coach. He doesn’t deserve to be fired. But it is hard enough to win when everyone is on your side. When everybody wants you out of there, it is just best to move on.”

-I thought it was amazing how effective Iowa St. was at drawing fouls on Ohio St. The Buckeyes almost never foul, but Iowa St. managed to get enough contact to get in the bonus much earlier than expected in both halves.

-We all hate the elbowing rule. But I thought the referees got it wrong when they called James McAdoo’s elbow of Jeff Withey inadvertent contact. I saw the same play called a foul on at least two other occasions in the round of 64, and this seemed to be a case where the referees missed the initial call and didn’t want to admit they were wrong. McAdoo picking up three in the first half could have completely changed the game.

But in many ways, it was also perfect basketball karma. No one has been winning in this tournament by getting things handed to them. As Florida Gulf Coast’s Sherwood Brown said in his pre-game introduction before the Georgetown game, “They aren’t going to give it to us, we have to take it.” In the first half against North Carolina, Kansas (and Jeff Withey) were asking for someone to give them the win against North Carolina. And Withey begging for a flagrant call really summed it up perfectly. That was why North Carolina led 30-21 at halftime.

But when Travis Releford decided he wanted the game, and when Kansas decided they were not going to give up another easy look the rest of the game, that was when Kansas advanced to the Sweet Sixteen.

-What is it with potential draft prospects flopping in this tournament? Kansas phenom Ben McLemore looked like a deer in the headlights against Western Kentucky in the first round, but that was nothing compared to his 0-9 performance against North Carolina that had him riding the pine. Kansas made it to the Sweet Sixteen without McLemore playing well, but they won’t make it much further if the freshman superstar doesn’t start playing better.

-On paper, Creigthon-Duke sounded like a fun offensive match-up between two great three-point shooting teams. But no one denies three-point attempts like Duke and the game didn’t live up to the hype.

-Florida Gulf Coast has now shredded two of the Top 15 defenses in the country. This is scary. They also lead the nation in crazy late-game dunks. If Brett Comer had dunked late in the game, I don’t know what would have happened to the world.

Thank You Seniors

I wish every tournament game could be close so every senior could go out with a few more hero plays.

-I feel so bad for Temple senior Scootie Randall putting up an 0-for-12 performance. He heroically returned from a knee injury and was Temple’s second leading scorer this season. But his career ends with a nightmare game, and a lot of fingers pointing in his direction since the loss was so close.

-Meanwhile Minnesota senior Trevor Mbawke never really regained his inside dominance after tearing his ACL last season. While he did get one nice dunk-and-one on an airball late in the Gophers loss to Florida, one of the Big Ten’s all-time most physical players didn’t really go out in style. Minnesota senior Rodney Williams also chipped in one relatively meaningless dunk late in the game against Florida. For a player whose heroic dunks have often been the only reason to watch Minnesota play, I had hoped for one more highlight reel. (Rodney Williams put-back dunk against Florida St. remains my personal favorite because of how far back he had to go to get the ball.)

That said, I hope Minnesota fans still feel like Mbakwe and Williams contributed something to the program. The Gophers are not completely lacking tradition. But after an academic scandal removed their 1997 Bobby Jackson Final Four run from the record book, it has been a long road back. Dan Monson was never able to overcome the recruiting sanctions. And Tubby Smith is a quality coach, but one who can’t quite match the Thad Matta’s and Tom Izzo’s in the Big Ten. This is especially true given his lack of a practice facility on campus which hurts Minnesota’s recruiting.

Minnesota doesn’t start Top 100 recruits up and down the lineup. They hope to win when the seniors all click. Things didn’t click this year for Mbakwe and Williams as they struggle to an 8-10 conference finish in a year where they almost certainly should have gone 10-8 or better. But the Gophers did restore the tradition of winning in the NCAA tournament. And when a team has a drought of 16 years, that shouldn’t be overlooked.

-Similarly, Mississippi senior Reginald Buckner, one of the school’s all-time best shot-blockers, may have wished he could get a re-do on the last second loss to La Salle and get a better chance to deflect Garland’s shot. He may view the loss to the 13 seed as a bit of a disappointment. But for an Ole Miss team that hadn’t won a tournament game since 2001 this was an off-the-charts great year. Winning the SEC tournament title, and earning a tournament win against Wisconsin is an extremely special accomplishment. Rebel pride has clearly been restored.

-If seniors have to lose, I at least prefer for them to be at their best. Illinois senior Tyler Griffey lost his job as a starter three times in his career. The truth is that he was not meant to be a Big Ten player. He was a perfect stretch four, but he couldn’t live up to the brutal physicality of the Big Ten. But Griffey hit a buzzer beater to beat Gardner Webb. He made a buzzer-beater to defeat #1 Indiana. And the player most known for his outside shooting hit four big threes against Miami in the near upset. Even in the loss, that is how a senior should go out, by doing what he does best.

Expected Wins in Field of 64

As I do every day of the tournament, I once again track the expected wins (based on the Pomeroy Rankings) and how these change.

Based on their own win, Florida is now expected to win an additional 0.60 games in the tournament. And based on other events (namely Florida Gulf Coast advancing), that added another 0.18 to Florida’s expectation. (Florida would have been heavily favored against San Diego St. too.)

Sunday’s biggest loser is obviously San Diego St. which let a 15 seed advance to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time. But Ole Miss also let a real opportunity slip away, especially since Gonzaga did not make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Michigan and Michigan St. didn’t play but saw their odds fall slightly with Kansas and Duke advancing. 

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