With the #1 high school recruit Andrew Wiggins in the fold, Kansas is once again the Big 12 favorite. Just look at the high school recruiting ranks of Kansas’ potential starting lineup:

PG Naadir Tharpe (RSCI #91 player in 2011)

SG Wayne Selden (ESPNU #14 in 2013)

SF Andrew Wiggins (ESPNU #1 in 2013)

PF Perry Ellis (RSCI #31 in 2012)

C Joel Embiid (up to #6 in ESPNU Top 100, though lower in other rankings).

Bench: Brannen Greene (ESPNU #47 in 2013), Conner Frankamp (ESPNU #46 in 2013), and Andrew White (RSCI #52 in 2012)

That’s a pretty special group of talent. But we need to be cautious before we label Kansas a Final Four favorite. This team is exceptionally young. None of these players have ever played more than 15 minutes per game at the college level.

And unlike Kentucky (where the recruiting class is filled with Top 10 recruits), many of these guys are more likely to produce down the road. Guys at Greene and Frankamp’s level of the rankings are more likely to become stars as sophomores or juniors than as freshmen. Embiid would appear to be a “sure thing” as a Top 10 recruit, but even the people who are raving about Embiid have described him as a raw talent. They expect him to blossom in 2014-2015, not dominate right away. When you add in the fact that PG Naadir Tharpe struggled with his shot last season, it is clear that Kansas doesn’t have the perfect lineup.

But it might be the perfect lineup for Andrew Wiggins. With so many young players, he will be the clear leader. Much like Texas with Kevin Durant, Kansas players will realize that the team can only achieve its lofty goals by getting Wiggins the ball. And he should be able to carry the team to another Big 12 title.

Of course, Kevin Durant lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament in 2007. And with its physical play, college basketball is not a sport that always showcases transcendent players. And after crunching the numbers, my model projects Kansas as the 8^th best team in the nation.

Vegas will likely give Kansas better odds than what I have below. But Vegas is calculating the odds of winning a title. I am interested in measuring the quality over the full season, including November and December when Kansas’ young players will struggle with the adjustment to the college game. The model concludes that with Bill Self at the helm, Kansas will have an elite defense. He is the best in the business at getting new players to commit on that end of the court. But with so many young players, there will be offensive mistakes. Players will take bad shots. Players will commit silly turnovers. And the model projects Kansas’s offensive efficiency to be worse than some of the other elite teams.

My model’s revised Top 25 Standings look like this:

Pred Off, PredDef, PredPythag: The predicted points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, and predicted winning percentage against an average D1 team on a neutral floor.

Returning Minutes, Possessions: The loss of high possession players can be a larger detriment to the offense, thus I list percentage of returning possessions in addition to returning minutes.

T100: Number of players who were Top 100 recruits out of high school. People focus on Top 100 freshmen, but Top 100 players are also more likely to become breakout stars later in their career.

Last Pythag: Last year’s Pythagorean winning percentage according to Kenpom.com. This is essentially a measure of each team’s margin-of-victory in 2012-13.

The addition of Andrew Wiggins isn’t the only thing to shake up my model’s Top 25 since the end of April. Yesterday I documented how the addition of Eli Carter moves Florida up to the Top 3 in my model. And I wrote about how the loss of Trae Golden dropped Tennessee out of the Top 25. But here are some details on some other teams that have changed since my late April update.

Into the Top 25

Memphis continues to be one of the bigger movers in the rankings. When I first ran the projections model in early April, I assumed Memphis would have Tarik Black, Shaq Goodwin, and Top 40 recruits Austin Nichols and Kuran Iverson in the front-court. And the model projected Memphis at 16^th nationally. But then Tarik Black transferred, and that had multiple consequences. First, Nichols and Iverson had slightly lower expectations than Black, who was an efficient player for three years with the Tigers. With Black gone, Nichols and Iverson would each have to play more minutes. And second, it became more likely that Memphis would have to give some backup front-court minutes to a player like HippolyteTsafack. Tsafack was not a Top 100 recruit out of high school and has had multiple knee injuries limiting him to less than 20 total games in his career. Both these factors lowered the projected offense and defense for the Tigers.

When I re-ran my model (without Black and Antonio Barton who also transferred,) Memphis fell to 29^th. But when Memphis added George Washington forward and graduate school transfer David Pellom, the Tigers immediately upgraded their front-court depth and the model moved Memphis back up to 24^th.

Meanwhile, guard Allerik Freeman was one of the only uncommitted Top 100 high school recruits at the end of April. He recently committed to Baylor. Baylor guard Deuce Bello (who struggled mightily last season posting an ORtg of 86) saw the writing on the wall with Freeman coming in, and elected to transfer. The upgrade from Bello to Freeman moved Baylor from 28^th to 25^th in my model. Even though the model remains skeptical of Baylor head coach Scott Drew, the Bears have reached the point where even an inconsistent coach should have Top 25 expectations.

In my initial Top 25 and post NBA early entry Top 25, I have profiled all of the other Top 25 teams, but I haven’t discussed Baylor yet, so allow me to do that here:

Baylor’s front court remains one of the strongest in the nation with Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson. But the team also welcomes back rising sophomore Ricardo Gathers who was seriously under-utilized last year and could easily become a star in his own right. And prized forward recruit Dominic Woodson should also provide solid post minutes off the bench.

The biggest question is the point guard position. And while no single player can replace Pierre Jackson, Baylor does have three fairly nice options. First, even though Gary Franklin hasn’t been efficient throughout his career, he was a Top 100 recruit out of high school and remains a high potential player. Second, JUCO transfer Kenny Chery should be steady, even if he doesn’t dominate. And third, Brady Heslip may be able to provide some minutes at the position. Heslip may not be able to create much, but paired with a player like Freeman in the back-court, he could certainly be counted on for basic ball-handling duties. Throw in prized recruit Ishmail Wainwright and the possible late development of LJ Rose (a highly ranked high school player who still has high potential), and the model can no longer keep Baylor out of the Top 25.

Moving Up

Recently VCU added Florida St. graduate transfer Terrance Shannon. Shannon was not super-efficient at FSU, but the step down in completion should help some. And he makes a difference for VCU because Jarred Guest and Justin Tuoyo were not impressive last year and may not be ready for expanded roles this season. Shannon can help stem the tide until those players improve offensively. In net, VCU improves from 24^th to 21^st with the addition of Shannon.

Pittsburgh also jumped up from 19^th to 15^th with the addition of Marshall graduate school transfer DeAndre Kane. Most college basketball experts have Pittsburgh much lower. In fact, I’ve seen experts write how Kane’s addition “could” make Pittsburgh an NCAA tournament team, suggesting they are closer to 45^th in the nation than 15^th. But the tempo free numbers love James Robinson, Lamar Patterson, JJ Moore, Top 100 recruit Mike Young, and Talib Zanna. And Kane’s efficiency should improve now that he will need to shoot less.

That said, I believe you can make a case that the tempo free numbers are wrong here. Kenpom.com may have had Pittsburgh 11^th last season, but they only received an 8-seed in the NCAA tournament. And even though Pitt finished 12-6 in the Big East last year which made all of their numbers look good, they didn’t really beat quality teams late in the year to justify a strong seed.  For example, Pitt’s big win at Georgetown which helped inflate their margin-of-victory numbers came early in the conference season before Georgetown figured out its offense. I understand why the numbers like Pitt at #14, but I also understandwhy most experts are skeptical of that rank.

The team that should have “could” make the tournament attached to it is Oregon. While adding graduate school transfer Mike Moser improves the Ducks expectations substantially, they still seem to be missing the pieces they need to be a winning team in the Pac-12. I will have more to say about Oregon and the Pac-12 in a future week.

Big 12 Quarterfinals

#4 Iowa St. defeated #5 Oklahoma, #1 Kansas defeated #9 Texas Tech, #2 Kansas St. defeated #7 Texas, #3 Oklahoma St. defeated #6 Baylor

The most compelling image of the conference tournaments (so far) is Baylor’s Pierre Jackson lying on the floor after missing the game winning shot and realizing his NCAA dream may be over.

The backstory: Jackson never had an easy road to success in basketball. He had to play Junior College basketball at the College of Southern Idaho. But after dominating at that level, he finally got his chance in the Big 12. He joined a talented Baylor squad and for two years and was an All-Big 12 caliber player. But this was his senior year, and as the announcers noted, Baylor was 1-7 in close games this season. And that meant that Baylor had to win this game to have a shot at an at large bid.

Things looked ugly for most of the game. Baylor fell behind by 20 and at one point the Bears were 1 of 18 from three point range. But Pierre Jackson refused to let his season end. The senior put his team on his back and scored 31 points. And still his team trailed by 4 in the final seconds. That was when he kicked the ball to teammate Gary Franklin who took a three and was fouled. Franklins’ four point play tied the game and fully completed the 20 point comeback. Baylor’s dream NCAA comeback seemed like it might become a reality.

But then, Phil Forte, the Oklahoma St. player who committed the foolish foul on Franklin, drove the lane and drew a foul. His two free throws gave Oklahoma St. the lead with just 3 seconds left. Jackson would need one more heroic play. Baylor executed to perfection getting the ball to Pierre Jackson on the run and allowing Jackson to step into a three point shot at the three point line. But his shot was off the mark. And the epic senior comeback came up short. Despite all of Jackson’s heroics, Baylor seems headed to the NIT. And as he lay on the floor on Thursday night, you could tell Jackson knew it.

If the NCAA selection committee picks teams based on heart, Jackson will be in. But based on the overall profile, they simply blew too many close games against Top 50 teams.

Elsewhere in the Big 12, Iowa St. may have sealed their NCAA bid by completing a come from behind win against Oklahoma. The Cyclones trailed by 14 before winning by 7. This win was all the more impressive considering how poorly Iowa St. shot from three point range to open the game. True, their 1 of 12 pales in comparison to Baylor’s 1 for 18, but Iowa St. relies extremely heavily on three point shots for their offense, whereas Baylor can thrive on drives and post feeds. Despite an 0-8 game from PG Korie Lucious and 2 for 8 game from Tyrus McGee, Iowa St. won, showing they can win games even when their shot isn’t falling.

A10 First Round

#9 Charlotte defeats #8 Richmond, #5 Butler defeats #12 Dayton, #10 St. Joseph’s defeats #7 Charlotte, #6 UMass defeated #11 George Washington

Yesterday I noted that the A10 tournament might be the best tournament this weekend, and so far it has delivered.

St. Joseph’s was the preseason pick for A-10 champion because they brought back their entire rotation from last season. And seeing them play on the Barclays center floor reminded me of the game they played on that floor in November against Notre Dame. At that point, we were so excited about the prospects of this team, and Langston Galloway embodied his team’s heart by diving on the floor and losing a tooth in that upset. Four months later, the preseason favorites finished in 10^th place, and the team’s primary stars have all regressed:

 Teams are supposed to build chemistry over time, not lose it. Still, I couldn’t help but wonder if St. Joseph’s might be looking for some redemption in this tournament. St. Joseph’s came back from 8 down to make it close. Down 1 with 8 seconds left, St. Joseph’s Langston Galloway drove the lane and drew a foul (instead of settling for a jump shot), and his free throws gave St. Joseph’s a one point lead.  Then with just 1.4 seconds on the clock Xavier knew they needed to throw the ball the length of the court. Justin Martin reached back and chucked the ball the entire length of the court. In fact, he threw it so hard it bounced off the backboard on the other end. This surprised St. Joseph’s and left them completely out of position defensively. Xavier’s Isaiah Philmore was in the right place at the right time, and caught the ball right under the basket and had a wide open 2 foot look at the game winning shot. But in the hurry of the moment Philmore missed. And St. Joseph’s lives to play another day. They still have no shot at an at-large tournament berth, but don’t count the preseason favorites out until the final buzzer sounds. St. Joseph’s plays VCU on Friday and the Hawks took VCU to overtime in the regular season.

Meanwhile, Charlotte’s win over Richmond will go down as one of the wildest endings of all time. Richmond led 63-60 and elected to foul to prevent Charlotte from getting a game-tying three point shot. They committed that foul with less than 5 seconds left. For those who think this is a perfect strategy, what followed has to be the worst-ever sequence of events. Charlotte went to the line to shoot a one-and-one. The first free throw was good, but during the first free throw attempt Richmond’s Derrick Williams fouled a Charlotte player while boxing out for the rebound. That meant an automatic technical on Williams.

Charlotte got to finish the one-and-one, which cut the lead to 63-62, and then made two technical foul shots to take a 64-63 lead. Charlotte also got possession of the ball. Somehow, Richmond fouled while trying to steal the inbound and it was called a 3 point shot. Richmond coach Chris Mooney went ballistic and was called for a double technical and ejected from the game. Four made free throws later and Charlotte iced the game 68-63. Sometimes when you foul up three, you can still lose in regulation.

Finally, UMass trailed George Washington late in the game and Cady Lalanne and Terrell Vinson had fouled out. But UMass PG Chaz Williams refused to be denied. If you’ve never seen Williams play, you are really missing something special. Williams is simply a lightning bolt, and he had 3 drives for baskets in the final 90 seconds where he looked like he was shot out of a cannon. But even though Williams gave his team the 3 point lead, they still needed a stop. That’s when Williams stole the ball with 7 seconds left. UMass doesn’t quite have an NCAA tournament profile, but Chaz Williams run in this tournament is worth the price of admission.

Big Ten First Round

#8 Illinois defeated #9 Minnesota, #5 Michigan defeated #12 Penn St., #10 Nebraska defeated #7 Purdue, #6 Iowa defeated #11 Northwestern

Minnesota and Illinois might both be in the NCAA tournament, but the loser of this game was going to be sweating on Sunday. Early on Minnesota’s Trevor Mbakwe picked up two fouls. And after Austin Hollins made his first two shots of the game to give Minnesota a 7-2 lead, Hollins also picked up his second foul. With Tubby Smith stubbornly refusing to play his key starters with foul trouble, Illinois went on a 23-9 run and built a 25-16 lead. The Gopher’s subs couldn’t even seem to find open shots against the Illinois defense and the shot-clock violations and turnovers were horrible. (On a day where Villanova committed 18 first half turnovers, it doesn’t seem that bad, but the Gophers had 11 first have turnovers.) Then with the starters back in Minnesota went on a run and took the lead.

But with both teams diving for a loose ball in the final minute, Illinois’ DJ Richardson hit a three to tie the game. And after a Minnesota turnover, Brandon Paul drove to the left side of the elbow and hit a pull-up jumper for the game-winner.

Minnesota’s comeback and last second loss wasn’t nearly as emotional as Baylor’s comeback, but at least the Gophers showed some fight. For a team that has lost 11 of its last 16 games (but still earned enough quality wins to be in the NCAA discussion), that may be a small consolation. Illinois can now sit back comfortably on Selection Sunday while the Gophers will be sweating.

When Penn St. pulled to within 3 points of Michigan (50-47 with 13 minutes remaining) it felt like DeJaVu all over again. Michigan had struggled at home against the last place Nittany lions and lost on the road at Penn St. in one of the year’s biggest shockers. But instead of letting the close game rattle them, the Wolverines pulled away to win by 17.

Nebraska’s upset of Purdue moved the Cornhuskers up to #100 in the RPI which at least momentarily gives a number of Big Ten teams one or two more Top 100 wins. Iowa’s win against Northwestern kept them in the bubble discussion, but the game against Michigan St. is the much bigger game on Friday.

ACC First Round

#8 Boston College defeated #9 Georgia Tech, #5 NC State defeated #12 Virginia Tech, #7 Maryland defeated #10 Wake Forest, #6 Florida St. defeated #11 Clemson

This might have been the least compelling opening round of the ACC tournament in recent memory as the only legitimate bubble team, Virginia, is off until tomorrow.

Georgia Tech took a 15-0 lead to open its game against Boston College, but was outscored by 35 points the rest of the way. Boston College freshman Olivier Hanlan set an ACC tournament record with 41 points.

Maryland and Florida St.’s wins weren’t exactly easy, but at least they stayed alive on Thursday. The big games for these schools will come on Friday against Duke and North Carolina respectively.

Big East Quarterfinals

#1 Georgetown defeated #9 Cincinnati, #5 Syracuse defeated #4 Pittsburgh, #2 Louisville defeated #7 Villanova, # 6 Notre Dame defeated #3 Marquette

The beauty of the Big East Tournament is that all 8 quarterfinal teams will likely be in the NCAA tournament. This is why the Big East Tournament has been so fun to watch since it expanded to its current format less than a decade ago.

After Georgetown took a 24-8 lead, Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin sent 4 players to the scorer’s table for a mass-substitution, just looking for some energy. Cincinnati responded by knocking down a series of three pointers and jump shots. But as Len Elmore noted when Cincinnati tied the game up, it seemed like a bit of fool’s gold. Cincinnati had only 4 points in the paint, and the jump shots couldn’t keep falling forever. The Hoyas eventually pulled away again to win by 19.

When Syracuse went up 43-30 on Pittsburgh on a Brandon Triche three pointer, it felt like this game might be over. But if the above recaps have taught me anything, it is that no lead is safe. Pittsburgh fought all the way back and had the ball down three with a chance to tie in the final minute. Pittsburgh’s Lamar Patterson took a three that was off the mark, but Talib Zanna grabbed the rebound and his bucket and one could tie the game. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, Zanna missed the free throw, Syracuse made its free throws, and Pittsburgh turned the ball over on the subsequent possession to end the game.

I sort of wish Zanna would have made that free throw. I would have loved to see Syracuse go for another buzzer beating win in the Big East tournament. James Southerland was 6 for 6 from three point range (after shooting 6 for 9 on Friday) and I was very curious if Jim Boeheim would have drawn something up to get Southerland a shot. Syracuse was 12 of 19 from three point range in this game which was critical because Pittsburgh got 16 offensive boards against the zone defense. Syracuse needed every ounce of its hot shooting to grab the victory.

Syracuse and Georgetown will now play for the third time this season on Friday night. If the Big East’s biggest rivalry is going to end, it only seems fitting that Georgetown and Syracuse will meet in the Big East Tournament.

Villanova turned the ball over 18 times in the first half against Louisville, and Louisville eventually pulled away. Meanwhile Notre Dame’s Pat Connaughton’s has 6 threes on back-to-back nights. That would be impressive in any tournament, but his 12 of 18 three point shooting in the Big East tournament has been overshadowed by James Southerland’s 12 of 15 shooting on threes (as noted above).

SEC Second Round

#9 LSU defeated #8 Georgia, #5 Tennessee defeated #13 Mississippi St., # 10 Vanderbilt defeated #7 Arkansas, #6 Missouri defeated #11 Texas A&M

Tennessee and Missouri kept their at-large tournament hopes alive with wins. But Arkansas, which hasn’t been able to do anything away from home, once again blew it, losing against Vanderbilt. The Razorbacks slim NCAA hopes are now over.

Pac 12 Quarterfinals

#1 UCLA defeated #9 Arizona St., #4 Arizona defeated #5 Colorado, # 10 Utah defeated #2 California, #3 Oregon defeated #6 Washington

Arizona St. entered the day needing a major upset to have hope at an NCAA at-large bid, but blew a 15 point lead to UCLA. But Arizona St. super-freshman Jahii Carson made a case for the Pac-12 tournament team with his 55 points in two games. North Carolina fans continue to grimace at Larry Drew’s redemption tour for UCLA. Drew had 20 points on 8 for 10 shooting while dishing 4 assists in the win. UCLA will face Arizona on Friday in one of the day’s most intriguing games.

Speaking of Seniors who refuse to let their seasons end, Utah Senior Jarred DuBois’s three at the end of regulation tied the Cal-Utah game and sent it to overtime, where the Utes prevailed. Utah knows that any loss will end their season, but they are now just two wins away from the NCAA tournament. And even though their game went to OT, Utah can take solace in the fact that Oregon also needed OT to advance to the semifinals.

The Pac-12 has been suffering through a long dark period. The Big Ten has been dominant (at least in the pre-conference schedule) for the last few years. Should we expect a change this year? Is the Pac-12’s slump over? Is the Big Ten’s boom about to come to an end? Let’s take a quick look at some basic roster data and see if we can uncover any trends.

Part of predicting the season is noting the number of elite high school prospects on each roster. Not only are these players more likely to play well as freshmen, but they are also more likely to breakout later in their career. Recall, for example, Michael Snaer of Florida St. Snaer was a former Top 20 recruit, and while it took him three seasons, he broke out in a big way in 2011-12. After adding up the numbers…

- The Big East has the most former RSCI Top 100 prospects on rosters heading into the season with 58.

- But the Big East has more teams, and the Big East has only 3.9 elite recruits per team. The ACC has the most former Top 100 recruits per team with 4.6 per team.

- But James McAdoo is the only former Top 10 prospect in the ACC this season. That seems like an unprecedented lack of super-elite talent for the conference. If you want super elite talent, you probably want to watch the SEC, assuming everyone is declared academically eligible. John Calipari never lets us down on the recruiting trail.

- The SEC, however, is only welcoming ten Top 100 freshmen this year as a whole. Even the Big Ten, the land of typically poor recruiting, is welcoming more Top 100 freshmen than the SEC this season. And yes, the slumping Pac-12 brings in quite a few elite recruits this year.

The next table isn’t really roster data, but it does reflect some of my preliminary projections about playing time.

- The ACC is going to be the youngest conference in the nation this year, according to my projections.

- The Big East has a startlingly low number of key seniors on rosters this year.

- As usual, the MWC and A10 have more mature rosters. They lose fewer players to the NBA and that helps the top MWC and A10 teams compete, even without a plethora of blue chip talent.

The Pac-12 is getting older in a hurry, thanks in no small part to an influx of transfers. Note that your transfer numbers may vary slightly. I’m excluding transfer walk-ons and a few JUCOs who seem unlikely to play in the next table.

The transfer table doesn’t mean the Pac-12 has suddenly become the conference of transfers. This is all a natural consequence of recent league history. The Pac-12 teams have struggled the last few years making those teams particularly attractive places for transfers to matriculate. If you want to transfer and PLAY in an elite league, you would have chosen the Pac-12 too.  On the other hand, the Big Ten has been on an upswing and few coaches have needed to dip into the JUCO ranks as a quick fix. Deverell Biggs of Nebraska is currently the only incoming JUCO player projected for the Big Ten this year.

Overall, the Pac-12 was a depleted league, but it is adding a number of impact freshmen and key transfers this year. The days of the league failing to field a Top 25 team are over. As for the Big Ten, the jury is still out. The teams at the top still have plenty of talent, but programs like Purdue could be in for a bit of a slip without an influx of can’t miss players coming in.

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