The Pac-12 has been suffering through a long dark period. The Big Ten has been dominant (at least in the pre-conference schedule) for the last few years. Should we expect a change this year? Is the Pac-12’s slump over? Is the Big Ten’s boom about to come to an end? Let’s take a quick look at some basic roster data and see if we can uncover any trends.

Part of predicting the season is noting the number of elite high school prospects on each roster. Not only are these players more likely to play well as freshmen, but they are also more likely to breakout later in their career. Recall, for example, Michael Snaer of Florida St. Snaer was a former Top 20 recruit, and while it took him three seasons, he broke out in a big way in 2011-12. After adding up the numbers…

- The Big East has the most former RSCI Top 100 prospects on rosters heading into the season with 58.

- But the Big East has more teams, and the Big East has only 3.9 elite recruits per team. The ACC has the most former Top 100 recruits per team with 4.6 per team.

- But James McAdoo is the only former Top 10 prospect in the ACC this season. That seems like an unprecedented lack of super-elite talent for the conference. If you want super elite talent, you probably want to watch the SEC, assuming everyone is declared academically eligible. John Calipari never lets us down on the recruiting trail.

- The SEC, however, is only welcoming ten Top 100 freshmen this year as a whole. Even the Big Ten, the land of typically poor recruiting, is welcoming more Top 100 freshmen than the SEC this season. And yes, the slumping Pac-12 brings in quite a few elite recruits this year.

The next table isn’t really roster data, but it does reflect some of my preliminary projections about playing time.

- The ACC is going to be the youngest conference in the nation this year, according to my projections.

- The Big East has a startlingly low number of key seniors on rosters this year.

- As usual, the MWC and A10 have more mature rosters. They lose fewer players to the NBA and that helps the top MWC and A10 teams compete, even without a plethora of blue chip talent.

The Pac-12 is getting older in a hurry, thanks in no small part to an influx of transfers. Note that your transfer numbers may vary slightly. I’m excluding transfer walk-ons and a few JUCOs who seem unlikely to play in the next table.

The transfer table doesn’t mean the Pac-12 has suddenly become the conference of transfers. This is all a natural consequence of recent league history. The Pac-12 teams have struggled the last few years making those teams particularly attractive places for transfers to matriculate. If you want to transfer and PLAY in an elite league, you would have chosen the Pac-12 too.  On the other hand, the Big Ten has been on an upswing and few coaches have needed to dip into the JUCO ranks as a quick fix. Deverell Biggs of Nebraska is currently the only incoming JUCO player projected for the Big Ten this year.

Overall, the Pac-12 was a depleted league, but it is adding a number of impact freshmen and key transfers this year. The days of the league failing to field a Top 25 team are over. As for the Big Ten, the jury is still out. The teams at the top still have plenty of talent, but programs like Purdue could be in for a bit of a slip without an influx of can’t miss players coming in.

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It was Kansas, Missouri and Baylor atop the Big 12 for a large part of the season, but Bill Self’s Jayhawks eventually pulled away as they have in each of the past eight campaigns.

Kansas finished with a 16-2 record, two games ahead of Missouri.

In order to determine our team rankings, we calculate the difference between a team's own FIC per game and their opponents' FIC for the entire conference season.

The FIC is a single statistical measurement that encompasses things such as scoring efficiency, rebounding, blocked shots, etc. Its purpose is to combine the box score into one statistic, both on a team level and for players.

1. Kansas: 22.91  
2. Missouri: 12.33  
3. Baylor: 9.03  
4. Iowa State: 7.24  
5. Kansas State: 6.26  
6. Texas: 2.54  
7. Oklahoma State: -8.34  
8. Oklahoma: -11.10  
9. Texas A&M: -15.10  
10. Texas Tech: -25.76

Major Conference Tournaments Day 2

Big East Round 2

UConn over West Virginia in OT: Does it matter if a head coach is on the sideline? On Tuesday we heard that Steve Lavin was involved in the game-planning and daily activities of St. John’s, so I am not sure it should matter much that he wasn’t on the sidelines for games late in the year. (And if you saw the play Mike Dunlap drew up to beat Cincinnati earlier this year, that seems especially true.) But many people seem to believe Jim Calhoun’s presence on the Connecticut sideline is important, and this year we can test that with a non-trivial sample of games. Because of a Big East suspension and his back issues, Jim Calhoun missed 11 of UConn’s games this season. Wednesday morning, I tweeted UConn’s splits with and without Calhoun on the sidelines:

(Note: I throw out games when Ryan Boatright did not play because that also appears to have impacted the team.)

Somewhat surprisingly, Calhoun’s biggest impact seems to be on the defensive end. And with Calhoun on the sideline Wednesday, Connecticut needed every ounce of defensive energy to come back to win. After falling behind by double digits, UConn’s defense forced numerous steals and then held West Virginia to 0-13 shooting at the end of regulation and in OT. I’m not sure whether Calhoun was really responsible for that late game defensive execution, but once again the Huskies found a way to get stops with Calhoun on the sideline.

Connecticut’s win over West Virginia was also a real referendum on Shabazz Napier. I’ve criticized Napier for his questionable decision making. (And I still wonder what he was doing wasting all that time dribbling before taking a tough three at the end of regulation.) But there is no doubt that Napier proved many skeptics wrong in the comeback win. His 3 steals at the end of regulation, plus his 3 blocks, 26 points, and 6 assists, prove why Connecticut has stuck by him all year.

Georgetown over Pittsburgh: Georgetown extended its zone against Pittsburgh and the Panthers had to exert energy just to get the ball inside the NBA three point arc. The Hoyas defense hasn’t been perfect in every game, but with lineups that often include four players over 6’8” on the floor, when the defense is swarming it can be impossible to get a good look anywhere near the basket. Georgetown won despite Hollis Thompson and Jason Clark shooting only 1 of 10 from the floor. If you had told me in November that Thompson and Clark would struggle like that, I would have said that Georgetown had no chance to win. But this is a much more balanced team than early in the season.

Louisville over Seton Hall: With about 7 minutes left in the second half, Seton Hall was shooting 27% and had forced only 6 turnovers. (This after Seton Hall forced Louisville into 24 turnovers in the previous meeting.) And for the Pirates one problem compounded the other. The Pirates have been fantastic at forcing steals this season, but part of the way they do that is by using pressure selectively after made baskets. Unable to make shots, they could not apply their pressure. And unable to apply their pressure, they weren’t getting easy looks. Senior Jordan Theodore eventually led Seton Hall on a furious comeback late, but despite his heroic efforts, the Pirates may have blown their last chance at an NCAA bid. Final Note: Peyton Siva’s dad is fantastic.

South Florida over Villanova: “You have to hit someone with a two-by-four in order to get a whistle in this game.” At one point Jay Bilas was proded into saying South Florida didn’t pass the eye test because their offense was so ugly. But he eventually changed his tone and said teams should get in based on wins and losses, not style of play. Still, USF is very much a defense-oriented team. Here is a short list of bubble teams that are the anti-thesis of USF. I.e., these bubble teams are good on offense and bad on defense: Iona, Northwestern, Texas, Oregon, Dayton, Mississippi St., Colorado St., Miami, NC State. Keep that in mind as you cheer for teams this week.

Big 12 Round 1

Texas A&M over Oklahoma: Trailing Texas A&M by two points with 4 minutes left, Oklahoma left Dash Harris wide open from three point range and dared him to take the shot. Harris paused and then buried a three. Harris then drove on the next possession and found an open Khris Middleton for another three, and within moments, the Aggies pulled away. Leaving Harris open was a calculated gamble for Lon Kruger’s team, based on Harris making only 29% of his threes this year, but it ultimately backfired.

Oklahoma St. over Texas Tech: They showed an interesting graphic which showed that Billy Gillispie has coached at 11 different schools (from the high school to college level) in the state of Texas. Despite the incredible lack of talent he inherited, he is a natural fit at Texas Tech. I also enjoyed Holly Rowe’s comment that Gillispie continues to be tough on freshmen Jordan Tolbert and pull him out of the game when he isn’t playing well. Yes, Tolbert might be the best player on the team, but you can’t let a freshman get a sense of entitlement. You play minutes when you play hard. Oklahoma St. scored 31 points off of turnovers in this game and won easily.

Pac-12 Round 1

Oregon St. over Washington St.: The big joke early in the day was the sparse attendance at the Staples Center. Mike Tirico noted that “friends and family were in attendance.” The first half was a tale of two runs. First Oregon St. went on a 24-8 run, then Washington St. answered with 31-14 run to take a 1 point lead at the half. In crunch time, OSU kept taking the ball to the basket and drawing fouls while WSU kept settling for threes, and eventually OSU salted the game away.

UCLA over USC: They showed Kevin O’Neil’s pregame speech for USC. Rather than tell his team that they could work hard and win, he told his team to play hard and maybe the game would be close near the end. Ouch. Despite USC’s incredible lack of offensive talent, UCLA fell behind early. When it was 13-9, UCLA’s David Wear missed a wide-open dunk that had to have UCLA fans screaming at the TV. Before long the score was 17-9 in favor of the Trojans. Eventually UCLA put things together, but they certainly did not look like a team that is read to win four games in four days.

Stanford over Arizona St.: The score at halftime was Chasson Randle 27, Arizona St. 30. Randle’s teammates chipped in another 23 points making it a blowout at the intermission. Randle might have been the Pac-12 freshmen-of-the-year in a normal year based on his team leading scoring totals and all-around efficient play, but Washington’s Tony Wroten took that honor. Randle responded to the snub by reminding people that he can be a very prolific scorer.

Colorado vs Utah – late game, more tomorrow