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Virginia: I am worried about this Virginia projection. It depends critically on how Top 100 recruit, freshman point guard London Perrantes plays. But on paper, everything is coming together for Virginia. They have their three top scorers (really the only guys who scored at all), back from last year. Former Top 100 recruit Mike Tobey should be ready for that sophomore year leap in production. They add depth with South Carolina transfer Anthony Gill. Malcolm Brogdon (who missed the entire season) and Darion Atkins should be back healthy. And Virginia played very good basketball in conference games last year.

Georgetown: Greg Whittington should return from an academic suspension, incoming transfer Josh Smith is a dominant offensive player, and Georgetown brings back the majority of the players from a dominant defensive team. Thus picking the Hoyas for the Top 25 makes sense even without Otto Porter. But I am very concerned how much the offense will depend on mid-year transfer Josh Smith. Smith is a natural offensive player, and seems like the perfect high-post player to make the Georgetown offense flow. But will he be able to integrate into the lineup (and get in shape) for a 3 month run? Statistically he looks like a good fit, but betting on Josh Smith has been a bad bet the last two seasons.

Iowa: Iowa isn’t going to blow you out of the water with Top 100 recruits. But the majority of the lineup that went to the NIT final will be back. The time for winning is now. Don’t forget that the team welcomes Wisconsin transfer Jarrod Uthoff.

Ohio St: The loss of DeShaun Thomas shouldn’t hurt the Buckeye defense that much. And because players like Sam Thompson and LaQuinton Ross are only starting to show signs of how good they can be, the offense might not slip that much either.

Colorado: Another very young but talented team last year. People are raving about how good Josh Scott could be in 2013-2014.

Memphis: The five Memphis seniors are great players and this might be Josh Pastner’s best team. But the addition of a dominant recruiting class should be the x-factor that gets the team deeper into the tournament this year. If Tarik Black transfers (which is speculated), Memphis might fall a little bit in these projections, but not that much. This team has depth.

Creighton: They are only here if Doug McDermott comes back.

Connecticut: The best thing about your seniors transferring out is that all your main talent has eligibility left.

Syracuse: On paper they have the pieces they need to replace their departing stars. Duke transfer Michael Gbinije should be a nice wing player to replace James Southerland. Tyler Ennis can step in at point-guard. But if Michael Carter-Williams isn’t back (what I project above), Trevor Cooney is still going to be logging major minutes. The lack of options on the perimeter is still a concern.

UCLA: The Wear twins are going to be seniors next year. It only seems like we’ve been talking about them forever because of the transfer season.  I’m assuming Kyle Anderson sticks around, because where is he going to go? Between Anderson, a healthy Jordan Adams, and a more developed Tony Parker, UCLA has enough talent to compete for a Pac-12 title again. This may seem like a low ranking given what UCLA brings back, but remember UCLA was only 47^th in the Pomeroy Rankings last year. I’m predicting they will be better on offense and defense.

Alabama: This might be my most unorthodox Top 25 pick. Anthony Grant teaches outstanding defense, so Alabama will always be competitive in that area. And Bama brings just about everyone back, so expect a more coherent offense from the start of the season. There is no excuse for losing to Mercer or Tulane this season. The model particularly expects Devonta Pollard to take a big step forward. The freshman forward often looked unprepared last year, but he was a Top 25 recruit out of high school, and he should develop into a more polished post player. Plus Alabama adds two more Top 100 forwards to the rotation, which should help as well. My biggest concern is that far too often in recent seasons, Grant’s returning upperclassman haven’t delivered. Last year it was Andrew Steele’s injuries that caused him to fall apart and miss the end of the season. In previous seasons it was off-court issues that derailed the team. But on paper, there is no reason Alabama shouldn’t take a step forward and become an elite team next year.

Pittsburgh: It really helps that Pittsburgh can develop underclassmen to replace its seniors. Tray Woodall is gone, but James Robinson played point guard very well last season, and should keep the team playing at a high level.

New Mexico: The starting five from the MWC champs could have been back if not for the early entry of Tony Snell. But even without Snell or head coach Steve Alford, the experience the other four starters have working together should ensure another strong season. New head coach Craig Neal might not have the most credentials, but all he has to do is make sure the starters don’t transfer, and New Mexico will compete for a MWC championship again.

Tennessee: The preseason loss of Jeronne Maymon derailed Tennessee’s plans. But with Maymon, Jarnell Stokes, Trae Golden, and Jordan McRae, Tennessee has an impressive lineup coming back.

Kansas: A very good comparison for the 2014 Jayhawks might be the 2013 Tar Heels. I fully expect Bill Self to make Perry Ellis into a high volume scorer next season, just as I thought James McAdoo would become a star last year. And there are some impact recruits like Wayne Selden. But this is still a complete rebuild on offense. Bill Self’s teams always play outstanding defense, and he’ll need that to stay in the Top 25. Kansas could desperately use Andrew Wiggins to commit to the school if they want to win a 10^th straight Big 12 title, but it helps that the rest of the conference should be down next year.

Missing

Wichita St.: Last year Gregg Marshall returned only 35% of his minutes so with 54% of his minutes returning this year, winning should be a piece of cake. Seriously, if he can build another dominant team with unheralded recruits, he might be the best coach on the planet.

Indiana: The Hoosiers have a lot of good pieces, but the model doesn’t like how they fit together. It concludes based on last year’s substitution patterns that Yogi Ferrell, Jeremy Hollowell, Remy Abell, and Will Sheehey will see plenty of action. And they just aren’t the most effective offensive players. Ideally the younger players will see a lot of playing time early, and some of them will become stars, but it should be a transition year.

Miami: The Hurricanes don’t have enough incoming talent to replace what they lose.

Providence: The model questions whether Ed Cooley is a good enough defensive coach. Personally, based on what Providence did late in the year, I think they probably will have a solid defensive team next season. But getting elite talent to commit to defense isn’t easy. It certainly didn’t happen in January this year. And if Ricardo Ledo goes pro, they aren’t even in the conversation.

VCU: Troy Daniels (and his 124 made three pointers) is gone, and this isn’t a team loaded with elite talent. But the system should keep them in the Top 25 discussion again next year.

St. Louis: Very close.

Gonzaga: Sam Dower was a solid backup forward, but it is really asking too much for him to replace Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris. Losing two high volume shooters is going to lower the efficiency of all the returning players.

Oregon: They lose a ton of value with their seniors. They could have really used that Aaron Gordon commitment.

Mississippi: Marshall Henderson is back, but three key starters are gone.

UNLV: Mike Moser may be transferring to Washington, but even if Moser comes back, they lost a lot of production this off-season.

St. John’s: D’Angelo Harrison says he wants to return to the team, and they will be better than people think.

Maryland: Even without Alex Len they will be an upper division ACC team.

Villanova: Lots of solid pieces.

Coming in the next three months:

1)      Updated rankings when early entrant decisions become final.

2)      Where the lineup-based model went right and wrong in year one, and how it can be improved.

3)      Conference projections for the top conferences. See the shockingly low projections for teams like Temple and Oregon.

The game of the weekend featured Baylor ending Kentucky’s 55-game home winning streak. I’ve often described Scott Drew as an excellent recruiter, but without the in-season coaching ability of John Calipari. But for at least one afternoon, Scott Drew’s club ended up on top.

A couple of things fascinated me about the game.

First, John Calipari had Kyle Wiltjer on the bench for a long stretch in the second half. And he really had no choice. Wiltjer finished the day 1-for-11 from the floor, and he doesn’t have the defensive ability to stay in the game if his shot isn’t falling. Wiltjer has to find ways to provide value to his team other than just knocking down threes if he is going to be a true leader this season.

Second, I continued to be impressed with the all-around game of Baylor’s Isaiah Austin. I wish he would settle for a few less outside shots, but what I love about Austin is how he always looks extremely focused when on the floor. Even if he commits a turnover or takes a dumb shot, Austin doesn’t ever appear to get rattled.

Of course it is easy to describe an intangible like “quiet confidence” when a player is winning. And with Kentucky losing, it is easy to attack Nerlens Noel’s complete lack of an offensive game. But had Kentucky rallied to win, we’d instead be talking about all the little things Noel did to help his team win on Saturday. Noel had 16 rebounds and 6 steals in Kentucky’s loss, and Kentucky needed those defensive stops in a game where they shot so poorly. Watching so many freshmen play prominent roles made me want to do a quick update of how all the top recruits have fared this season. Here is a summary of the RSCI Top 80.  * = injured or ineligible for part of the season

Kentucky has had a problem with rebounding this year, but don’t blame Nerlens Noel. He needs some help from Willie-Cauley Stein and Kyle Wiltjer who are very poor defensive rebounders for their size.

If Kaleb Tarczewski and Steven Adams aren’t earning major minutes at this point in the season, it is hard to envisioning them becoming full scale stars later. When conference play rolls around, coaches tend to be less patient with their freshmen. Thus in many ways, percentage of minutes can be the most important stat this time of year.

Efficiency is also important, and Kyle Anderson’s 87.9 ORtg is terrible for an elite recruit. Point guards can struggle more than other players to adapt to the college game and Anderson was considered to have point guard skills out of high school. So perhaps Anderson’s struggles aren’t a complete surprise. On the other hand, Archie Goodwin and Marcus Smart weren’t really point guards in high school and they have adapted to the position. Goodwin’s turnover numbers are far too high, but he’s set up his teammates passably while setting up his own shot a lot. And Marcus Smart has made a tremendous transition to playing the point-guard position at the college level. Smart’s assist rate is much better than many players regarded as better passers out of high school.

I really think the problem with Anderson is that Ben Howland hasn’t figured out how to use him. Lots of coaches from Rick Pitino to John Thompson III have been able to feature great lanky passers, by positioning them at the high post and letting them see the whole floor. Anderson still has the potential to be that type of player, even if he has struggled early.

Grant Jerrett and Sam Dekker are the only players in the Top 20 who are not starting. Ricardo Ledo is ineligible. And Kris Dunn and Gary Harris are injured.

We start to see the typical drop-off when we get to recruits in the 11-20 range. DaJuan Coleman still has the profile of a player who will be a star in a future season, but right now he is having trouble earning playing time behind other quality big men on Syracuse’s roster. Meanwhile Cameron Ridley has been extremely disappointing for Texas. Certainly it hurts not to have Myck Kabongo eligible, but Kabongo’s absence doesn’t explain why a player like Ridley can be so passive against a team like Chaminade as he was in the Maui Invitational loss. The only good thing I can say about Ridley is that he has 19 blocks already, which is more than any other player in the Top 50 except Nerlens Noel.

Only Rasheed Sulaimon has become an undisputed crunch time star for his team. And Sulaimon’s efficiency is even more impressive when you look at Duke’s strength of schedule so far. Rodney Purvis has also played major minutes, but he is deferring a lot to his teammates at this point.

Glenn Robinson has been shockingly efficient at this point in the season, well above many of his peers on this list. But none of the players listed here are going to quite be in the national player of the year discussion because they are starting to become more passive offensive players. (I.e. the percentage of possessions used is now often below 20%) Only Danuel House is using a large number of possessions at this point in the rankings, and House plays for a Houston team that is in the process of upgrading its talent level in anticipation of joining the Big East.

This preseason I wrote how Marcus Paige would have some growing pains and be inconsistent this year, and the response I got was that Roy Williams had a ton of confidence in Paige and that I was being un-necessarily pessimistic. So far, with an 87.7 ORtg, neither Paige nor the Tar Heels are off to a great start. Paige has better days ahead, but North Carolina is also going to have a few more baffling losses before the season is over.

I was worried that Yogi Ferrell could have a similar negative impact on the Hoosiers because freshmen are often inconsistent. But Ferrell has thrived because he has worked within the offense. Instead of hogging the ball and needing to create shots, Ferrell has let his teammates work their isolation stuff, and provided key drives and dishes when needed. Ferrell has been happy to fill a role on the Hoosiers, and he has been everything Indiana needed.

Finally, Tony Parker’s minutes this year have been a joke, but with Josh Smith transferring, Parker at least has a chance of cracking the UCLA rotation now.

Notice how often a lack of playing time plagues players at this point in the rankings. I expected and still expect big things out of Kansas’ Perry Ellis and Iowa’s Adam Woodbury, but their coaches have only given them a taste of playing time at this point. The result is that some guys at this point in the rankings become unmitigated gunners. Hey Indiana’s Jeremy Hollowell, no matter how good you think you are, when the game with North Carolina was close late in the first half, Indiana didn’t want you bombing threes. They wanted Jordan Hulls bombing threes.

Xavier has played much better than many of us anticipated this season, and freshman Semaj Christon deserves a lot of that credit. Christon has out-played point-guards like Marcus Paige and realistically he’s been much more important than even Yogi Ferrell given his role in the offense. Christon is using nearly 30% of his team’s possessions, scoring at a prolific clip, and setting up his teammates without a rash of turnovers.

Most of Christopher Opekpa’s stats are pretty pedestrian, but not his block rate. Opekpa has 35 blocks at this point in the season, easily out-distancing any of the other freshmen in today’s column.

Nik Stauskas has been unbelievably efficient at this point and he is playing major minutes to boot. Some people expected Michigan to be a Top 10 team, but did they really expect Stauskas to outperform his peer level players by this much? His efficiency is due in large part to his teammates, and his shot-selection. But his performance is still notable. Stauskas has the most threes of anyone mentioned in this column (18 made) beating even UCLA’s super-aggressive shooter Jordan Adams.

Also give Adams credit. He’s shooting 26% of the time while maintaining a solid ORtg. Kyle Anderson may have been the third rated recruit for UCLA, but Adams has actually played like one.

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