The Bulls, Knicks, Warriors and Thunder won their first round series, but fell short of reaching the NBA's Final Four. Each team faces a pivotal offseason with many decisions to consider. Read More. Written by Daniel Leroux on May 21, 2013
Stan Van Gundy knows his family has become comfortable living together in Orlando and has made it clear that he will not coach in the NBA next season. Read More.
The event gives front offices the opportunity to evaluate D-League players with the possibility of offering Summer League or training camp invites. Read More.
Tyus Jones, the No. 2 overall recruit for 2014 and an excellent point guard, was selected by Paul Biancardi, Adam Finkelstein and John Stovall. Read More.
As I stuck on truTV on Friday night and soaked up the replays of Florida Gulf Coast’s Chase Fieler taking alley-oop dunks from Brett Comer, I was reminded that it isn’t just the great basketball that makes the NCAA tournament special. It is the other moments as well. It is the sight of Florida Gulf Coast senior Sherwood Brown reveling in the moment. When he started at the school, they weren’t even eligible for the tournament. But with his career reaching his fourth year, he was going to make sure he sucked up every moment. He shook hands with the announcers. He went into the cheerleaders and grabbed a group hug. And in the locker-room, his team celebrated as a family.
Meanwhile, the dejection on Georgetown head coach John Thompson III’s face was equally dramatic. I thought his words were so appropriate. “I told these guys, no matter what people write about you, no matter what happens, I am proud of you.” And he is exactly right. People are going to act like Georgetown failed because the big name brand school with all the resources lost to the small school just joining D1. But this was still a tremendous season. This group of players with no seniors and losing a key starter to academic eligibility still made tremendous strides this season. I was still proud to watch them play this season, even if they were the Goliath knocked off the mountain-top.
And that is truly the beauty of the NCAA tournament. All these teams, win or lose have had tremendous seasons. The X’s and O’s are great. The bracket busters are great. The buzzer beaters are great. But ultimately, the window is short. The moment of opportunity is fleeting. And win or lose, the drama of it all coming to an end is always great theater.
Reckless Abandon
Ole Miss used great strategy against Wisconsin. They used full court pressure, not to cause turnovers, but to make the Badgers waste clock. And while that may seem counter-intuitive, (why slow down a slow team even further?), it worked. The Badgers didn’t have their normal time to probe for good shots. And with Mississippi also switching between man-to-man defense and zone defense to confuse the Badgers even further, Wisconsin had to settle for more bad shots than usual. The Badgers ended the season with a horrific shooting performance. Jared Berggren was 2 of 10, Ryan Evans was 2 of 8, Ben Brust was 2 of 9, Traevon Jackson was 2 of 10. And that was easily enough for a hot Ole Miss team to advance.
In the locker-room, the interview with Ben Brust said it all. In near tears the sophomore noted that this wasn’t the way it was supposed to end for his 5 senior teammates. They were his brothers. They were the only team to beat Michigan and Indiana twice. They had put in too much work, and too much effort to see the team lose without putting up a fight.
Meanwhile, despite Mississippi’s Marshall Henderson’s horrific 1 for 11 start, his coach never chided him. He simply said, “This is your half, take advantage of the moment.” And Henderson responded with 5 of 10 second half shooting.
Indeed this was probably another take-away from Friday. The unbridled teams win in the tournament. Florida Gulf Coast played without fear and Marshall Henderson wins by playing with reckless abandon.
On Friday Illinois played with reckless abandon as well. Freed from the dreaded Big Ten defensive teams that deny fast-break points at all costs, the Illini played like the aggressive team John Groce tried to build early in the year. (I.e. when the team started 12-0 and took three point shots without fear.) I heard a lot of criticism of Illinois taking 31 threes in the game because it opened the door for Colorado to come back, but I completely disagree. Illinois isn’t a great half-court team. They don’t have big guys who can score around the basket. And they aren’t a great passing team. The truth is, they are never going to get a better look than an open three in transition. And on Friday, those threes proved that more often than not in the NCAA tournament, ruthless aggression wins. (Of course those transition threes would not have been possible with great half-court defense. Illinois’s first half steals showed it most dramatically, but when Illinois’ DJ Richardson drew a 5-second closely guarded call in the second half, that might have been the biggest defensive possession of the game.)
The Day's Shocker
Style clashes were everywhere. We had bruising Villanova, going up against the 4-guard lineup of North Carolina. Wait, is that right? Had these teams actually flipped their rolls? Was it true that Villanova actually dominated the points in the paint 38-16 in this one? And yet North Carolina still won.
That was shocking. But it was not nearly as shocking as the news that UCLA’s Shabazz Muhammad might actually be 20 years old. That’s right, Muhammad might have pulled a Danny Almonte and faked his age in order to look extra dominant against his competition, and improve his NBA draft stock. Muhammad will still certainly be a top lottery pick in this year’s draft (since it is one of the weakest drafts in recent memory), but I have to think teams will think twice about drafting someone who would lie about something like that for all these years.
And we also learned that sometimes depth does matter in the NCAA tournament. I thought that with all the TV timeouts that teams couldn’t get tired out. But with UCLA’s Travis Wear and Tony Parker each picking up 3 first half fouls, UCLA was forced to keep its five other rotation players in the game at all times. And you could tell at the end of each half that UCLA simply had no energy defensively. They started the game playing lock down defense against the Gophers. But at the end of the first half, the Gophers got whatever they wanted dumping the ball into the paint. Low scoring back-up centers like Elliot Eliason and Maurice Walker dominated. And in the second half, Andre Hollins could pretty much take an exhausted Larry Drew at will. Minnesota caught almost no breaks this season playing in a rugged Big Ten. But UCLA was indeed the perfect first round draw as many experts expected.
Hot and Cold
The real story of the day was the back-and-forth scoring runs. 2013 has been the year when no team has handled success well. Whenever a team looks dominant, it tends to follow that up with its worst performance of the season. And thus perhaps it was not surprising that Friday was the day of hot and cold play.
-Temple led NC State 38-22 at halftime, only to see NC State cut the lead to 74-72 with 2 seconds left. Temple held on for the victory.
-La Salle led 44-26 at halftime, only to see Kansas St. take a 60-58 lead with 6 minutes left in the second half. Again, La Salle put the game away in the final minutes.
-Illinois led Colorado 37-21 at halftime, only to see Colorado take a 44-39 lead in the second half. Illinois then ended with a run of its own to win 57-49.
Finally, Georgetown took an 18-11 lead on Florida Gulf Coast. But FGCU went on a 41-15 run to take 52-33 lead. Then Georgetown had a run to cut the lead to 72-68 before FGCU sealed the game with free throws at the end.
Coaching Questions
After a day like Friday, we could start to question the pedigree of a number of coaches. We could ask how Bo Ryan can post such great margin-of-victory numbers during the regular season each year, but never follow that up with a Final Four run. We can ask what the string of losses to teams seeded 10+ in the tournament really mean for John Thompson III. But in both cases, I think we need to cut these coaches some slack. Bo Ryan never had a true point-guard this season, so for his team to go out with an offensive swoon, shouldn’t really be criticized. His team over-achieved this year. Similarly, John Thompson III’s teams massively over-achieved. It has been clear since November that the offensive weaknesses would likely cause the Hoyas to bow out in the NCAA tournament at some point. There is a reason JT3 won the Big East coach of the year award, and it is because this 15 over 2 match-up was not nearly the mismatch it looked like on paper.
No, the coach that most concerned me on Friday was NC State’s Mark Gottfried. His inability to get his team to buy in on the defensive end is a huge concern. NC State is rarely going to have as much offensive talent as they had this season. And in the newer, stronger ACC, it may never be the preseason pick to win the league again. But without some commitment to teach defensive fundamentals, NC State will never match its fanbase’s rabid expectations.
And perhaps that is why I should end where I began. A day like Friday is as much about ending as it is about winning moments. It is hard for me to believe that NC State senior Richard Howell’s career is over. The hardworking rebounder didn’t earn playing time until later in the career because he was often over-shadowed by more skilled players. But his hustle and grit, made NC State an incredibly fun team to watch the last two seasons. Scott Wood was one of the all-time great three point shooters in the ACC. And in a league with the ACC’s history, that is quite a compliment. And in a blink of an eye, their college basketball careers are over. To see NC State go down in the first round, without a single NCAA tournament win has to go down as one of this season’s biggest disappointments.
Expected Wins in the Field of 64
Once again, I’m tracking the expected wins in the field of 64 using the Pomeroy Rankings. San Diego St. increased its expected wins by 0.61 by knocking off Oklahoma. (See Own Game.) And its odds increased another 0.54 because Georgetown lost and because San Diego St.’s 15 point win increased their Pomeroy Ranking slightly. (See Other.)
Overall the large number of upsets today meant that most teams gained from the other results. But when Miami advanced in the East that lowered expectations slightly for Marquette. And when Duke advanced that lowered the odds slightly for Louisville.
The Pac-12 has been suffering through a long dark period. The Big Ten has been dominant (at least in the pre-conference schedule) for the last few years. Should we expect a change this year? Is the Pac-12’s slump over? Is the Big Ten’s boom about to come to an end? Let’s take a quick look at some basic roster data and see if we can uncover any trends.
Part of predicting the season is noting the number of elite high school prospects on each roster. Not only are these players more likely to play well as freshmen, but they are also more likely to breakout later in their career. Recall, for example, Michael Snaer of Florida St. Snaer was a former Top 20 recruit, and while it took him three seasons, he broke out in a big way in 2011-12. After adding up the numbers…
- The Big East has the most former RSCI Top 100 prospects on rosters heading into the season with 58.
- But the Big East has more teams, and the Big East has only 3.9 elite recruits per team. The ACC has the most former Top 100 recruits per team with 4.6 per team.
- But James McAdoo is the only former Top 10 prospect in the ACC this season. That seems like an unprecedented lack of super-elite talent for the conference. If you want super elite talent, you probably want to watch the SEC, assuming everyone is declared academically eligible. John Calipari never lets us down on the recruiting trail.
- The SEC, however, is only welcoming ten Top 100 freshmen this year as a whole. Even the Big Ten, the land of typically poor recruiting, is welcoming more Top 100 freshmen than the SEC this season. And yes, the slumping Pac-12 brings in quite a few elite recruits this year.
Conf
T10
T100
T100 Fr
ACC
1
55
22
BE
1
58
17
SEC
4
49
10
B10
1
40
15
B12
3
33
11
P12
3
37
15
MWC
1
15
5
A10
0
11
3
The next table isn’t really roster data, but it does reflect some of my preliminary projections about playing time.
- The ACC is going to be the youngest conference in the nation this year, according to my projections.
- The Big East has a startlingly low number of key seniors on rosters this year.
- As usual, the MWC and A10 have more mature rosters. They lose fewer players to the NBA and that helps the top MWC and A10 teams compete, even without a plethora of blue chip talent.
Class
Sr%
Jr%
So%
Fr%
MWC
35%
30%
17%
17%
A10
33%
27%
19%
21%
P12
28%
32%
18%
22%
B12
32%
19%
26%
23%
BE
22%
32%
27%
19%
B10
27%
26%
23%
24%
SEC
25%
28%
24%
22%
ACC
25%
22%
23%
31%
The Pac-12 is getting older in a hurry, thanks in no small part to an influx of transfers. Note that your transfer numbers may vary slightly. I’m excluding transfer walk-ons and a few JUCOs who seem unlikely to play in the next table.
Incoming Transfers
D1
JUCO+
P12
15
8
SEC
10
11
BE
14
6
MWC
7
5
B12
7
5
A10
8
3
ACC
3
3
B10
5
1
The transfer table doesn’t mean the Pac-12 has suddenly become the conference of transfers. This is all a natural consequence of recent league history. The Pac-12 teams have struggled the last few years making those teams particularly attractive places for transfers to matriculate. If you want to transfer and PLAY in an elite league, you would have chosen the Pac-12 too. On the other hand, the Big Ten has been on an upswing and few coaches have needed to dip into the JUCO ranks as a quick fix. Deverell Biggs of Nebraska is currently the only incoming JUCO player projected for the Big Ten this year.
Overall, the Pac-12 was a depleted league, but it is adding a number of impact freshmen and key transfers this year. The days of the league failing to field a Top 25 team are over. As for the Big Ten, the jury is still out. The teams at the top still have plenty of talent, but programs like Purdue could be in for a bit of a slip without an influx of can’t miss players coming in.
Since the United States began to allow professional players on their Olympic roster for the 1992 Games, there have been 63 NBA players to win Gold Medals. The United States has won the Gold Medal in five of the six Olympics, accounting for 60 of the players, while there were three NBA players on Argentina when they won in 2004.
The following team-by-team list tallies the Gold Medal winners at the time of their respective games.
The Utah Jazz have won the most Gold Medals with six, followed by the Thunder/Sonics with five, Bulls, Lakers, Heat and Knicks with four.
The Bobcats, Grizzlies, 76ers and Wizards have yet to have a player win a Gold Medal.
Atlanta Hawks (0)
Boston Celtics (1): Larry Bird (92)
Brooklyn Nets (1): Deron Williams (12)
Charlotte Bobcats (0)
Chicago Bulls (4): Michael Jordan (92), Scottie Pippen (92), Scottie Pippen (96), Andres Nocioni (04)
Cleveland Cavaliers (1): LeBron James (08)
Dallas Mavericks (1): Jason Kidd (08)
Denver Nuggets (3): Antonio McDyess (00), Carmelo Anthony (08), Andre Iguodala (12)
Detroit Pistons (3): Grant Hill (96), Carlos Delfino (04), Tayshaun Prince (08)
Golden State Warriors (1): Chris Mullin (92)
Houston Rockets (1): Hakeem Olajuwon (96)
Indiana Pacers (1): Reggie Miller (96)
Los Angeles Clippers (1): Chris Paul (12)
Los Angeles Lakers (4): Magic Johnson (92), Shaquille O’Neal (96), Kobe Bryant (08), Kobe Bryant (12)
Memphis Grizzlies (1): Shareef Abdur-Rahim (00)
Miami Heat (4): Tim Hardaway (00), Alonzo Mourning (00), Dwyane Wade (08), LeBron James (12)
Milwaukee Bucks (2): Ray Allen (00), Michael Redd (08)
Minnesota Timberwolves (3): Christian Laettner (92), Kevin Garnett (00), Kevin Love (12)
New Orleans Hornets (2): Chris Paul (08), Anthony Davis (12)
New York Knicks (4): Patrick Ewing (92), Allan Houston (00), Carmelo Anthony (12), Tyson Chandler (12)
Oklahoma City Thunder/Seattle Super Sonics (6): Gary Payton (96), Vin Baker (00), Gary Payton (00), Kevin Durant (12), James Harden (12), Russell Westbrook (12)
Orlando Magic: Dwight Howard (08)
Philadelphia 76ers (0): (Iguodala was member of 76ers until semifinals of 12 Olympics)
Phoenix Suns (3): Charles Barkley (92), Charles Barkley (96), Jason Kidd (00)
Portland Trail Blazers (2): Clyde Drexler (92), Steve Smith (00)
Sacramento Kings (1): Mitch Richmond (96)
San Antonio Spurs (3): David Robinson (92), David Robinson (96), Manu Ginobili (04)
Toronto Raptors (2): Vince Carter (00), Chris Bosh (08)
Utah Jazz (6): Karl Malone (92), John Stockton (92), Karl Malone (96), John Stockton (96), Carlos Boozer (08), Deron Williams (08)
Washington Wizards (0)
Colleges
The below list accounts only for Olympic Gold Medals since 1992.
Duke and UCLA have had three separate Gold Medalists, while Cal has had three by counting Jason Kidd’s two wins.
Alabama: Antonio McDyess (00)
Arizona: Andre Iguodala (12)
Arizona State: James Harden (12)
Auburn: Charles Barkley (92), Charles Barkley (96)
California: Shareef Abdur-Rahim (00), Jason Kidd (00), Jason Kidd (08)
Central Arkansas: Scottie Pippen (92), Scottie Pippen (96)
Connecticut: Ray Allen (00)
Duke: Christian Laettner (92), Grant Hill (96), Carlos Boozer (08)
Indiana State: Larry Bird (92)
Georgetown: Patrick Ewing (92), Alonzo Mourning (00)
Gonzaga: John Stockton (92), John Stockton (96)
Hartford: Vin Baker (00)
Houston: Clyde Drexler (92), Hakeem Olajuwon (96)
Kansas State: Mitch Richmond (96)
Kentucky: Tayshaun Prince (08), Anthony Davis (12)
Illinois: Deron Williams (08), Deron Williams (12)
LSU: Shaquille O’Neal (96)
Louisiana Tech: Karl Malone (92), Karl Malone (96)
Marquette: Dwyane Wade (08)
Memphis: Penny Hardaway (96)
Michigan State: Magic Johnson (92), Steve Smith (00)
Navy: David Robinson (92), David Robinson (96)
North Carolina: Michael Jordan (92), Vince Carter (00)
No College: Kevin Garnett (00), Kobe Bryant (08), Dwight Howard (08), LeBron James (08), Kobe Bryant (12), Tyson Chandler (12), LeBron James (12)
Ohio State: Michael Redd (08)
Oregon State: Gary Payton (96), Gary Payton (00)
St. John’s: Chris Mullin (92)
Syracuse: Carmelo Anthony (08), Carmelo Anthony (12)
Temple: Pepe Sanchez (04)
Tennessee: Allan Houston (00)
Texas: Kevin Durant (12)
UCLA: Reggie Miller (96), Kevin Love (12), Russell Westbrook (12)
Breaking down Duke/North Carolina, Syracuse/Georgetown, Kansas/Baylor and Florida/Kentucky, along with which conferences are improving with the new round of shuffling.
There are a lot of complicated ways to evaluate college coaches, but in this edition we look at the coaches with the best per possession numbers over the last five years.
Teams that play a lot of freshmen are the most likely to improve as the season goes on, while those with a lot of experience are more likely to plateau. In this piece, we examine freshmen minutes for every major school in the country.
Syracuse has yet to leave New York and have played a relatively soft schedule, with their only impressive wins coming against Florida and Stanford, but they are 10-0 and now No. 1 in RealGM’s weekly poll.