Last fall on Basketball Prospectus I introduced the first ever lineup-based statistical model. Today, I use that model to project the 2013-2014 ACC college basketball standings:

Proj CW, CL = Projected conference wins and losses

Proj Off, Def = Projected points scored and allowed per 100 possessions against an average D1 team on a neutral floor

Top 100 = Number of players ranked in the RSCI Top 100 out of high school who are on the roster 

Ret Min, Ret Poss = Returning minutes and possessions

Last Off, Last Def = Last year’s offense and defense

Duke: Quinn Cook, Andre Dawkins, Rasheed Sulaimon, Mississippi St. transfer Rodney Hood, Amile Jefferson, #2 recruit Jabari Parker. Yes, Duke is going to be dominant again.

North Carolina: Marcus Paige, PJ Hairston, Leslie McDonald, James McAdoo, and four high potential young forwards (either ready to make the sophomore leap or contribute from day one) should make for a dominant lineup.

Virginia: At the start of April I wrote this: “Everything is coming together for Virginia. They have their three top scorers (really the only guys who scored at all) back from last year. Former Top 100 recruit Mike Tobey should be ready for that sophomore year leap in production. They add depth with South Carolina transfer Anthony Gill. Malcolm Brogdon (who missed the entire season) and Darion Atkins should be back healthy. And Virginia played very good basketball in conference games last year.” The only question mark is point-guard. London Perrantes, Teven Jones, and/or Devon Hall have to come through for this team to meet its expectations. And while at #97 ESPN recruit Perrantes isn’t a sure thing, the model thinks he will easily exceed the efficiency of Jontel Evans. Evans couldn’t shoot at all last year and posted an 83.4 ORtg. When a team loses its most inefficient players and has solid replacements coming in, that team should be substantially improved.

Syracuse: Unfortunately, Syracuse seems poised for another brutal offensive year. There were basically only four guys on the team that could score last year, and three of them are gone. The real problem is the lack of depth on the perimeter. My model has Duke transfer Michael Gbinije playing some minutes at the shooting-guard spot, but as Georgetown saw last year when they tried to play Otto Porter at that spot, a four forward lineup doesn’t have the right spacing. This is especially true given that among Syracuse’s returning forwards only CJ Fair has a true jump shot.

That means Syracuse will have to give a lot of minute to Tyler Ennis, Trevor Cooney, and Ron Patterson. Tyler Ennis might have a higher recruiting rank than Virginia’s London Perrantes, but he still isn’t a guaranteed star where he is rated. And Trevor Cooney was brutal last season. While the model predicts Cooney will be better this year, he certainly can’t be counted on to be a star. And Syracuse hasn’t had much success utilizing unranked freshmen right of the bat which isn’t good for Ron Patterson’s expectations.

DaJuan Coleman might become a high scorer next year, but it is a catch-22. While he is the only returning player who was a high volume shooter, he wasn’t very efficient (89.1 ORtg) last year. Part of that was an injury issue, but even with a fairly sizable jump in efficiency this year, he won’t be able to carry the offense. Don’t be fooled by transfer Michael Gbinije’s ORtg on Statsheet.com. He basically never played for Duke two years ago. The fact that he didn’t play says more about his expectations then whatever numbers he posted in garbage time in a few games. And don’t be fooled by Baye Moussa Keita’s efficiency either. Keita basically never shot last year. Syracuse has eight former Top 100 recruits on the roster, so they have talent. But it isn’t quite the right fit to expect a dominant offense.

Where I think the model may be wrong is not the offense, but the defense. The model is skeptical because Jim Boeheim has only had an adjusted defense below 89.0 once in his career. That one year was last season, so perhaps it will be repeatable. But Michael Carter-Williams had rare size at the PG spot. He made it brutally hard for teams like Indiana to get open looks at three and for players to make basic entry passes. If Cooney and Ennis can duplicate that, then Syracuse may be a Top 10 team.  My model expects a solid but not historic defensive performance from Syracuse.

Pittsburgh: This is going to sound odd, but Pittsburgh probably has a better starting rotation than Syracuse. Talib Zanna was Pittsburgh’s best forward last season. James Robinson was impressive as a first-year PG, and Lamar Patterson was a do-everything player. Meanwhile, JJ Moore is back and he was Pittsburgh’s most efficient bench player. The team also adds highly ranked freshman recruit Mike Young at forward. The real weakness for Pittsburgh is going to be depth. After those five guys, there is a serious drop-off. But keep in mind that Jamie Dixon has only finished with more than six conference losses once in his career. That isn’t going to change even in a stacked ACC.

Maryland: Replacing Alex Len won’t be easy, but the combination of Shaquille Cleare and Charles Mitchell’s development, combined with the addition of a lights out perimeter shooting forward (Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz) should make it palatable. Pe’shon Howard was so inefficient at the PG slot that his departure is probably addition by subtraction.

Notre Dame: For those of you keeping track, despite being listed as seniors last year, Garrick Sherman and Tom Knight are coming back. I am most interested to see how Mike Brey utilizes freshmen Demetrius Jackson. Brey usually has a short-leash with freshmen. The exception was Luke Harangody, and Jackson might just be that kind of freshmen. What is holding Notre Dame back is that Mike Brey is not an elite defensive coach. And that means the loss of a premiere defensive rebounder like Jack Cooley is a real problem.

Florida St.: Somehow, despite a horrible non-conference season, and terrible margin-of-victory numbers, the Seminoles won nine ACC games last year. I expect Florida St.’s offense and defense to be substantially better than last year. But I don’t expect them to match last year’s exceptional luck. And in an improved ACC, I project Florida St. as a 9-9 team. They will be better, but they might not have more conference wins to show for it.

Of course, if Andrew Wiggins matriculates, this expectation will be much higher.

Looking back, it is hard to believe how dreadful Florida St. played at times last season. The Seminoles scored 36 against Virginia and an even more embarrassing 46 against defensively challenged Wake Forest.  Highly rated freshman Montay Brandon had one of those avert-your-eyes awful seasons. It was amazing how much Leonard Hamilton stuck with him despite his clear offensive struggles. Brandon’s poor performance shows the difference between an old-school coach and a new-school coach. Buzz Williams and Brad Stevens would have never let a player like Brandon waste so many possessions.

But despite these offensive concerns, the real problem was the defense. How did one of the top defensive coaches suddenly forget what he was doing? I think the injury to Ian Miller had a lot to do with it, but the overall team performance was head-scratching. With a healthy Ian Miller, I predict a substantial bounce-back on both ends of the court. But it also depends on Hamilton making better lineup decisions than last season.

Boston College: Notre Dame transfer Alex Dragicevich will add to the team’s depth. But until Boston College starts playing better defense, they won’t make the tournament.

NC State: If you ask Mark Gottfried, he will admit that the lack of depth last year was frustrating. It made it hard to hold legitimate practices. But thanks to a host of defections NC State only has eight scholarship players again. One of those eight players, Jordan Vandenburg has struggled to ever earn playing time and was injured for much of last year. It is possible Vandenburg will break out as a fifth-year senior, but the expectations cannot be that high. The other seven players (including LSU transfer Ralston Turner and JUCO addition Desmond Lee) should all be solid players. But at this point, you have to bank on extreme luck to even put together a decent rotation. No one can get injured. None of the prized recruits can be a bust.

And Mark Gottfried hasn’t exactly been the kind of guy to bring a new crop of recruits together and play top defense right away. NC State probably has a higher upside than some of the teams listed ahead of them, but the downside risk is pretty high too. If everyone (but Vandenburg) comes back, this team will be in much better shape in 2014-15.

Wake Forest: Wait, why is Jeff Bzdelik still the head coach? Senior Travis McKie deserves better.

Georgia Tech: Marcus George-Hunt and Robert Carter were solid scorers as freshman last season and as highly ranked high school recruits, there is no reason to think they won’t make the sophomore leap and become stars this year. Overall Georgia Tech’s offense would be rated higher, but there is a major question mark at the PG slot. Solomon Poole wasn’t ready last year, but the alternatives Corey Heyward and Travis Jorgenson don’t have obvious pedigrees either. Without a strong point-guard and with several offensive liabilities in the rotation, the offense will still be bad.

Clemson: Given that they lose their two best players and have zero players who were elite high school recruits on their roster, I think a lot of preseason predictions will have them even lower than this. There really isn’t anyone on the roster who looks like a likely offensive star. (The only good news is that Clemson was young last year and the sophomore leap should help at least a couple of their freshmen become solid players.) But let’s face it, this is going to be an ugly team to watch. The only reason the model doesn’t have Clemson lower is because of Brad Brownell’s ability to teach defense.

Miami: Give Jim Larranaga credit for what Miami did last year, but this is a rebuilding year. This team was just devastated by graduations and Shane Larkin’s early entry into the draft. I think the lineup-based model may be a little too pessimistic. But the best-case scenario here is probably what Vanderbilt did in the SEC last year.  Don’t count on much from guys like Tony Jekiri and Erik Swoope. Guys who shoot that little rarely become big scorers. I feel bad for Rion Brown.

Virginia Tech: Goodbye Erick Green. Yep, next year isn’t going to be any better.

Follow @DanHanner

Click here for Part 1.

Virginia: I am worried about this Virginia projection. It depends critically on how Top 100 recruit, freshman point guard London Perrantes plays. But on paper, everything is coming together for Virginia. They have their three top scorers (really the only guys who scored at all), back from last year. Former Top 100 recruit Mike Tobey should be ready for that sophomore year leap in production. They add depth with South Carolina transfer Anthony Gill. Malcolm Brogdon (who missed the entire season) and Darion Atkins should be back healthy. And Virginia played very good basketball in conference games last year.

Georgetown: Greg Whittington should return from an academic suspension, incoming transfer Josh Smith is a dominant offensive player, and Georgetown brings back the majority of the players from a dominant defensive team. Thus picking the Hoyas for the Top 25 makes sense even without Otto Porter. But I am very concerned how much the offense will depend on mid-year transfer Josh Smith. Smith is a natural offensive player, and seems like the perfect high-post player to make the Georgetown offense flow. But will he be able to integrate into the lineup (and get in shape) for a 3 month run? Statistically he looks like a good fit, but betting on Josh Smith has been a bad bet the last two seasons.

Iowa: Iowa isn’t going to blow you out of the water with Top 100 recruits. But the majority of the lineup that went to the NIT final will be back. The time for winning is now. Don’t forget that the team welcomes Wisconsin transfer Jarrod Uthoff.

Ohio St: The loss of DeShaun Thomas shouldn’t hurt the Buckeye defense that much. And because players like Sam Thompson and LaQuinton Ross are only starting to show signs of how good they can be, the offense might not slip that much either.

Colorado: Another very young but talented team last year. People are raving about how good Josh Scott could be in 2013-2014.

Memphis: The five Memphis seniors are great players and this might be Josh Pastner’s best team. But the addition of a dominant recruiting class should be the x-factor that gets the team deeper into the tournament this year. If Tarik Black transfers (which is speculated), Memphis might fall a little bit in these projections, but not that much. This team has depth.

Creighton: They are only here if Doug McDermott comes back.

Connecticut: The best thing about your seniors transferring out is that all your main talent has eligibility left.

Syracuse: On paper they have the pieces they need to replace their departing stars. Duke transfer Michael Gbinije should be a nice wing player to replace James Southerland. Tyler Ennis can step in at point-guard. But if Michael Carter-Williams isn’t back (what I project above), Trevor Cooney is still going to be logging major minutes. The lack of options on the perimeter is still a concern.

UCLA: The Wear twins are going to be seniors next year. It only seems like we’ve been talking about them forever because of the transfer season.  I’m assuming Kyle Anderson sticks around, because where is he going to go? Between Anderson, a healthy Jordan Adams, and a more developed Tony Parker, UCLA has enough talent to compete for a Pac-12 title again. This may seem like a low ranking given what UCLA brings back, but remember UCLA was only 47^th in the Pomeroy Rankings last year. I’m predicting they will be better on offense and defense.

Alabama: This might be my most unorthodox Top 25 pick. Anthony Grant teaches outstanding defense, so Alabama will always be competitive in that area. And Bama brings just about everyone back, so expect a more coherent offense from the start of the season. There is no excuse for losing to Mercer or Tulane this season. The model particularly expects Devonta Pollard to take a big step forward. The freshman forward often looked unprepared last year, but he was a Top 25 recruit out of high school, and he should develop into a more polished post player. Plus Alabama adds two more Top 100 forwards to the rotation, which should help as well. My biggest concern is that far too often in recent seasons, Grant’s returning upperclassman haven’t delivered. Last year it was Andrew Steele’s injuries that caused him to fall apart and miss the end of the season. In previous seasons it was off-court issues that derailed the team. But on paper, there is no reason Alabama shouldn’t take a step forward and become an elite team next year.

Pittsburgh: It really helps that Pittsburgh can develop underclassmen to replace its seniors. Tray Woodall is gone, but James Robinson played point guard very well last season, and should keep the team playing at a high level.

New Mexico: The starting five from the MWC champs could have been back if not for the early entry of Tony Snell. But even without Snell or head coach Steve Alford, the experience the other four starters have working together should ensure another strong season. New head coach Craig Neal might not have the most credentials, but all he has to do is make sure the starters don’t transfer, and New Mexico will compete for a MWC championship again.

Tennessee: The preseason loss of Jeronne Maymon derailed Tennessee’s plans. But with Maymon, Jarnell Stokes, Trae Golden, and Jordan McRae, Tennessee has an impressive lineup coming back.

Kansas: A very good comparison for the 2014 Jayhawks might be the 2013 Tar Heels. I fully expect Bill Self to make Perry Ellis into a high volume scorer next season, just as I thought James McAdoo would become a star last year. And there are some impact recruits like Wayne Selden. But this is still a complete rebuild on offense. Bill Self’s teams always play outstanding defense, and he’ll need that to stay in the Top 25. Kansas could desperately use Andrew Wiggins to commit to the school if they want to win a 10^th straight Big 12 title, but it helps that the rest of the conference should be down next year.

Missing

Wichita St.: Last year Gregg Marshall returned only 35% of his minutes so with 54% of his minutes returning this year, winning should be a piece of cake. Seriously, if he can build another dominant team with unheralded recruits, he might be the best coach on the planet.

Indiana: The Hoosiers have a lot of good pieces, but the model doesn’t like how they fit together. It concludes based on last year’s substitution patterns that Yogi Ferrell, Jeremy Hollowell, Remy Abell, and Will Sheehey will see plenty of action. And they just aren’t the most effective offensive players. Ideally the younger players will see a lot of playing time early, and some of them will become stars, but it should be a transition year.

Miami: The Hurricanes don’t have enough incoming talent to replace what they lose.

Providence: The model questions whether Ed Cooley is a good enough defensive coach. Personally, based on what Providence did late in the year, I think they probably will have a solid defensive team next season. But getting elite talent to commit to defense isn’t easy. It certainly didn’t happen in January this year. And if Ricardo Ledo goes pro, they aren’t even in the conversation.

VCU: Troy Daniels (and his 124 made three pointers) is gone, and this isn’t a team loaded with elite talent. But the system should keep them in the Top 25 discussion again next year.

St. Louis: Very close.

Gonzaga: Sam Dower was a solid backup forward, but it is really asking too much for him to replace Kelly Olynyk and Elias Harris. Losing two high volume shooters is going to lower the efficiency of all the returning players.

Oregon: They lose a ton of value with their seniors. They could have really used that Aaron Gordon commitment.

Mississippi: Marshall Henderson is back, but three key starters are gone.

UNLV: Mike Moser may be transferring to Washington, but even if Moser comes back, they lost a lot of production this off-season.

St. John’s: D’Angelo Harrison says he wants to return to the team, and they will be better than people think.

Maryland: Even without Alex Len they will be an upper division ACC team.

Villanova: Lots of solid pieces.

Coming in the next three months:

1)      Updated rankings when early entrant decisions become final.

2)      Where the lineup-based model went right and wrong in year one, and how it can be improved.

3)      Conference projections for the top conferences. See the shockingly low projections for teams like Temple and Oregon.

Harvard's Upset

There is something about Ivy League schools in the NCAA tournament. In 1995, UCLA won the NCAA title. In 1996, much of the roster had turned over, but UCLA still earned a 4-seed and the Bruins were heavily favored in their first round against Princeton. Pete Carril, the legendary Princeton coach had announced his retirement prior to the game, and the Tigers pulled off a perfect game plan. They worked the clock. They played solid defense. They executed Carril’s classic back-cuts on offense. And in the final seconds, a back-cut led to a lay-up by Gabe Lewullis that finished off the epic win.

At the time it didn’t feel like just another win. I know that victories by 13-seeds hardly qualify as stunners these days. This wasn’t as big a seed upset as 15-seed Norfolk St. beating Missouri last year. The novelty of a defending champion losing is also a lot less special these days. With so many quality players leaving for the NBA, it hardly felt earth-shattering when Robert Morris defeated defending champion Kentucky in the NIT this week.

But at the time, the contrast in basketball power made this one of the biggest NCAA upsets of all time. Here was UCLA with all its legacy and all its resources, losing to a school that didn’t even offer athletic scholarships. It proved that basketball, when played right, and coached right, could be won by any team on any given day.

Thursday’s win by Harvard over New Mexico didn’t have that same dramatic feel. The ending wasn’t close. New Mexico doesn’t have the history or tradition of many power conference schools. (In fact, in many ways it was disappointing that New Mexico wouldn’t get a chance to extend one of the most dominant seasons in school history.)

But there was still something special about this win. Harvard is the quintessential academic school. It ranks in the Top 10 in just about every possible educational category from endowments, to department ratings, to future job earnings of graduates. Harvard students aren’t supposed to win in the NCAA tournament. And yet they did. And not only did they win, it didn’t require a buzzer beater.

Harvard didn’t have to execute some unorthodox strategy. This wasn’t Cornell executing yet another version of Carill’s back-cutting offense in their NCAA win. This wasn’t some completely perimeter focused-team. Tommy Amaker is a more traditional coach. And his team won playing basic basketball. They threw the ball into the paint to Kenyatta Smith and he scored over Alex Kirk and Cameron Bairstow. They attacked the paint and kicked the ball out for three. And most importantly, while they ran clock, they mostly moved the ball with the intention of scoring. Running a traditional based-attack, Harvard beat one of the big boys.

Some will say this is not your vintage Harvard team. Tommy Amaker encouraged the school to relax some of its admission standards to upgrade the basketball program. And those relaxed standards led to a horrific cheating scandal last year that caused the team’s co-captains to be dismissed before the season. But in many ways, that made Thursday’s outcome even more remarkable. Harvard had just one senior in the rotation this year. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year until the suspended players re-enrolled next season. But instead, one of the youngest teams in the nation, playing in a conference without athletic scholarships just defeated the regular season and post-season champion from one of the top conferences in the nation. By any measure, this is a special win. And the image of Wesley Saunders stealing the ball and clinching the victory is the tournament’s signature moment to date.

No Other Slippers

For most of the day, we didn’t seem to be heading towards any Cinderella team.

1pm: “I feel sorry for Bryce Drew, but this game is over.” – Charles Barkley at half-time of Michigan St. vs Valparaiso.

11pm: “Hey, I love 38 point games as much as the next guy…” – Ernie Johnson on Syracuse’s second half-lead against Montana.

And those weren’t the only small conference teams to struggle. A lot of people picked Belmont to upset Arizona based on their ability to knock down three point shots. But given Arizona’s size across the board, Belmont struggled to even get open looks. South Dakota St.’s Nate Wolters was an NCAA hero in his four year career, but Trey Burke hounded him defensively, and Wolters managed only a 3 of 14 shooting night while his team lost convincingly. If that shooting percentage sounds bad enough, New Mexico St. shot 28% as a team against St. Louis. And we’re not even going to talk about how much the basketball gods must hate Akron. Not only did Akron lose its point-guard prior to the game against full-court pressing VCU, then Akron was stricken with the flu this week. The game was ugly from the start. (If anyone picked Akron to win in your pool you should thank them for their donation. But wait, that’s probably the person who will win the whole thing.)

That isn’t to say there wasn’t some Cinderella drama throughout the day. It started with Bucknell-Butler. There was the brief moment when Bucknell took a 37 to 31 lead in the second half. We got a chance to learn about Bucknell’s 6’7” Joe Willman. He was the perfect example of a small conference senior forward playing his best game in the NCAA tournament. He knocked down the jump shots that gave his team the lead, and he even chipped in with three blocks. Willman certainly was not an outstanding athlete. But those blocks really showed that a lot of playing the post is experience and positioning. It isn’t always raw athleticism.

The close game was short lived however.  Butler had started 0-14 from three, but when Butler’s Andrew Smith and Rotnei Clarke finally nailed a pair of outside shots, Butler got on a run and somehow made the final margin a blowout.

Memphis vs St. Mary’s was closer in the final margin, but it wasn’t necessarily a more compelling upset possibility. Memphis has been one of the most fun teams to watch this year because of their fast-pace and the explosive dunking and shot-blocking of DJ Stephens. But while Stephens got his blocks, I only caught one that really showed his explosive leaping ability. And St. Mary’s slowed the game down enough that we didn’t really get to see Memphis’ exciting athleticism in action. At least the ending was a signature moment, and the sheer excitement in Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery’s voice had to make everyone smile.  They both were amazed as St. Mary’s banked in a three to pull within two points. And they were down-right giddy at the subsequent turnover on the inbounds. Mathew Dellavedova’s attempt at a game-winning three was off-the mark, but these two brilliant announcers made it worth all the replays they gave it later in the day.

Gonzaga vs Southern also had its share of close moments. At one point Southern’s Madut Bol’s and Derick Beltran hit back-to-back threes to cut the lead to 41 to 40, and Doug Gottlieb noted that the crowd was starting to get behind the 16 seed. The smell of a historical upset was in the air. And after a pair of Brandon Moore free throws made it 54-54, you could just sense the people getting home from work, turning on their TVs, and getting glued to the action. But that is when Kevin Pangos took over. Pangos hit a three pointer, a dish for a three, and a ridiculous fake-drive, step-back three pointer that put Gonzaga ahead for good.

Davidson vs Marquette was even better, but again the underdog came up short. I loved this game because it showed that sometimes you have to throw logic out the window and realize that anything can happen. The announcers kept harping on the fact that Marquette was the worst outside shooting team in the NCAA tournament and that if they fell behind, Marquette had no chance of winning. The Golden Eagles simply couldn’t hit the threes they would need to complete a comeback. Meanwhile Davidson was the best free throw shooting team in the country and could easily close out any win late. And yet Davidson somehow squandered a 9 point lead. Marquette’s Vander Blue bucked the team stats and hit a pair of late threes, and Jamil Wilson chipped in one of his own. And a turnover with 6 seconds left allowed Marquette to win it with a Vander Blue lay-up at the end of regulation. It was a dramatic win, but it meant that Cinderella was denied once again. The night would have to wait for Harvard.

Dixon Falls Again

Some fans may view Wichita St.’s dominating win over Pittsburgh as another win for Cinderella. But this was far from an epic mismatch. Rather, it was a contrast of two similar teams. Both teams don’t shoot the ball particularly well, but rely on dominating offensive rebounding and physical play to win games. And for most of the game, Wichita St. was simply the better offensive rebounding team. (Pittsburgh chipped in with some late offensive rebounds to make the numbers look more even, but by then the game was out of hand.) It also hurt that 5^th year Pitt senior Tray Woodall had a 1 for 12, five turnover performance in his final game. Woodall was playing so poorly that Jamie Dixon couldn’t even afford to play him in the last five minutes when the team was trying to come back. No one wants to see a senior go out like that. But this certainly didn’t feel like a fluke.

And it brings up more questions about whether there really is an NCAA curse associated with Jamie Dixon. Once again, his team had some of the best points-per-possession numbers in the country in the regular season. And once again Pitt lost earlier than expected. You can say that you need to have elite talent to win in the NCAA tournament, and Dixon relies more on experience and depth. And yet once again Dixon has not lost to a major conference blue blood. It wasn’t North Carolina or Kansas that took Dixon down. It was another mid-major squad. Will Dixon ever avoid NCAA disappointment at this point? You have to wonder if Dixon left for USC (which is a big rumor) whether the Pitt fans would even be disappointed.

Meanwhile, I don’t understand why Gregg Marshall isn’t on more lists for a power conference head coaching job. He took Winthrop to the NCAA tournament 7 times and finally won a tournament game at that small school. And now he has built Wichita St. into a two-year tournament team. Marshall should be on everyone’s short-list.

But even if there were no small conference Cinderalla’s, there were two major seeding upsets. And both suggested that the Pac-12 may finally be back. Early in the season I talked about all the prized freshmen and key transfers on Pac-12 teams. But they weren’t quite ready in November and December to display the conference’s improvement. Through at least one day of the NCAA tournament, the Pac-12 has made a statement.

I thought for sure Oklahoma St. would handle 12-seeded Oregon. Oklahoma St. has been very good at forcing turnovers this year, particularly star freshman Marcus Smart. And I thought with Dominic Artis still limited by injuries, and the fact that Oregon was not great at hanging onto the ball generally, that turnovers would be the difference in the game. Indeed turnovers were the difference, but it was Oregon that forced those turnovers in the first half and built a big lead. And the combination of turnovers and offensive rebounds had Oklahoma St. head coach Travis Ford fuming in his halftime interview. “We aren’t going to win if they get 21 more opportunities!” Oklahoma St. somehow flipped the turnover margin in the second half, but it was too little too late as Oregon kept the game at a manageable margin and pulled the seeding upset. I say seeding upset, because this was really just one good power conference team beating another.

12-seed Cal’s win over UNLV was a little more exciting. Cal’s never-ending string of missed free throws at the end nearly gave UNLV a chance to win in regulation. But Cal eventually hung on while playing in front of a favorable home crowd in San Jose.

Where is the NBA Talent?

At one point in the day, Charles Barkley was reciting his normal line. “Team X has the best player on the floor. He has to play well and then they should win.” But today basically showed that this is a dumb philosophy in this year’s tournament.

First, there aren’t any can’t miss NBA stars in college this year. There’s a reason no one in the NBA is tanking to win the draft this year. It isn’t clear that the top pick is really much better than the 11^th pick. Trey Burke is my personal favorite player because of his all-around ability to manage the game as a point guard, but Burke was a surprising 2 of 12 from the field against South Dakota St. Meanwhile, UNLV’s Anthony Bennett was completely kept under wraps in one of the night games. Bennett did get to 15 points thanks to the free throw line and did grab 11 rebounds, but he wasn’t impacting the game like he sometimes does. That was because California played a very smart zone defense for most of the game. It led to far too many outside shots for UNLV and far too little utilization of UNLV’s future pro.

But that is the other reason Barkley’s philosophy is wrong. In college, the rules aren’t designed for one-on-one basketball. You can always take one player away. And since no one has Kentucky type talent across the board this year, there is no star you can count on to dominate the game. College basketball is a team game, not a star game.

Expected Win in Field of 64

Finally, I end with my traditional table on each day’s winners and losers. The table lists the expected wins in the field of 64 using the Pomeroy Rankings. Arizona was expected to win 1.17 games before Thursday and their own win increased their expectation to 1.87. New Mexico’s loss (and other adjustments in team rankings based on game margins) further increased that expectation to 2.37.

Contrast that to Michigan. The Wolverines won which increased their expected wins by 0.29, but because VCU won (and won in dominant fashion), Michigan’s win expectations decreased by 0.22.

Indiana didn’t play but their expectation fell slightly because Syracuse won and won in impressive fashion.