While the NCAA Tournament has cachet all its own, one way of looking at the Tournament is through the lens of the NBA. While the lottery guys get plenty of buzz leading into the Tourney, I like to spend more time on the players on more middling teams for the first few days since it is less likely that their teams survive long enough to evaluate them further.

On that note, here is the day-by-day:

Thursday

Headline games:

Pittsburgh vs. Wichita State (1:40 PM Eastern)- This game makes the list primarily because of Steven Adams. The big man from New Zealand has not produced as much as many of us hoped during the season but has the chance to show his potential this weekend. The Shockers rebound well enough to challenge him and I am intrigued by Carl Hall.

Memphis vs. St. Mary’s (2:45 PM Eastern)- While Memphis has a slew of intriguing athletic question marks (Adonis Thomas, Joe Johnson and DJ Stephens are just three of them), St. Mary’s has Matthew Dellavedova. Matthew stands out as an unusual draft prospect because of his age (22) and subpar athleticism for his position but has the shooting stroke and basketball IQ to stick in the league longer than expected. We will learn a ton about everyone in this game. 

Other games to watch:

Syracuse vs. Montana (9:57 PM Eastern)- Michael Carter-Williams vs. Will Cherry. My bet is that one of them will massively help his draft stock in this game.

Oklahoma State vs. Oregon (4:40 PM Eastern)- Marcus Smart will have his hands full with future prospect Dominic Artis. We’ll see how Le’Bryan Nash handles the spotlight as well.

Michigan vs. South Dakota State (7:15 PM Eastern)- Senior sensation Nate Wolters gets the chance to show his value against a Michigan team full of potential NBA players (Trey Burke, Glenn Robinson III, and Tim Hardaway Jr among them).

UNLV vs. Cal (7:27 PM Eastern)- Anthony Bennett and Allen Crabbe will be the headliners but I am focused on how UNLV matches up on defense.

Friday

Headline game:

UCLA vs. Minnesota (9:57 PM Eastern)- After the injury to Jordan Adams, this could be our only chance to see lottery pick Shabazz Muhammad in the Tourney. Kyle Anderson, Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams are three other likely pros worth keeping an eye on.

Other games to watch:

Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss (12:40 PM Eastern)- Marshall Henderson. That is all.

North Carolina vs. Villanova (7:20 PM Eastern)- Despite deeply disappointing this season, UNC has plenty of NBA talent in the form of James Michael McAdoo, Reggie Bullock and PJ Hariston. Each of those guys needs to make an impression over the next few weeks in order to rehabilitate their stock.

Creighton vs. Cincinnati (2:45 PM Eastern)- One of the best potential tests for Doug McDermott makes this one particularly fascinating.

San Diego State vs. Oklahoma (9:20 PM Eastern)- Jamaal Franklin has been underappreciated by the national college hoops media but has a chance to make his own statement on the opening weekend. If the Aztecs can get past Oklahoma, a potentially star-making meeting with Georgetown looms.

The Pac-12 has been suffering through a long dark period. The Big Ten has been dominant (at least in the pre-conference schedule) for the last few years. Should we expect a change this year? Is the Pac-12’s slump over? Is the Big Ten’s boom about to come to an end? Let’s take a quick look at some basic roster data and see if we can uncover any trends.

Part of predicting the season is noting the number of elite high school prospects on each roster. Not only are these players more likely to play well as freshmen, but they are also more likely to breakout later in their career. Recall, for example, Michael Snaer of Florida St. Snaer was a former Top 20 recruit, and while it took him three seasons, he broke out in a big way in 2011-12. After adding up the numbers…

- The Big East has the most former RSCI Top 100 prospects on rosters heading into the season with 58.

- But the Big East has more teams, and the Big East has only 3.9 elite recruits per team. The ACC has the most former Top 100 recruits per team with 4.6 per team.

- But James McAdoo is the only former Top 10 prospect in the ACC this season. That seems like an unprecedented lack of super-elite talent for the conference. If you want super elite talent, you probably want to watch the SEC, assuming everyone is declared academically eligible. John Calipari never lets us down on the recruiting trail.

- The SEC, however, is only welcoming ten Top 100 freshmen this year as a whole. Even the Big Ten, the land of typically poor recruiting, is welcoming more Top 100 freshmen than the SEC this season. And yes, the slumping Pac-12 brings in quite a few elite recruits this year.

The next table isn’t really roster data, but it does reflect some of my preliminary projections about playing time.

- The ACC is going to be the youngest conference in the nation this year, according to my projections.

- The Big East has a startlingly low number of key seniors on rosters this year.

- As usual, the MWC and A10 have more mature rosters. They lose fewer players to the NBA and that helps the top MWC and A10 teams compete, even without a plethora of blue chip talent.

The Pac-12 is getting older in a hurry, thanks in no small part to an influx of transfers. Note that your transfer numbers may vary slightly. I’m excluding transfer walk-ons and a few JUCOs who seem unlikely to play in the next table.

The transfer table doesn’t mean the Pac-12 has suddenly become the conference of transfers. This is all a natural consequence of recent league history. The Pac-12 teams have struggled the last few years making those teams particularly attractive places for transfers to matriculate. If you want to transfer and PLAY in an elite league, you would have chosen the Pac-12 too.  On the other hand, the Big Ten has been on an upswing and few coaches have needed to dip into the JUCO ranks as a quick fix. Deverell Biggs of Nebraska is currently the only incoming JUCO player projected for the Big Ten this year.

Overall, the Pac-12 was a depleted league, but it is adding a number of impact freshmen and key transfers this year. The days of the league failing to field a Top 25 team are over. As for the Big Ten, the jury is still out. The teams at the top still have plenty of talent, but programs like Purdue could be in for a bit of a slip without an influx of can’t miss players coming in.

Follow @DanHanner

With the news of Maalik Wayns entering the draft after his junior season at Villanova, you may wonder whether it is an intelligent decision for him to forgo his final year of collegiate eligibility. To put it simply, it is probably not the best decision. He is clearly receiving questionable advice and should return to Villanova for his senior year.

I realize this may be alarming to him and many of his fans; however, I have come to this conclusion based on a number of objective factors, looking far beyond the scouting reports and dilemma facing a point guard who failed to lead his team to the NCAA Tournament. 

I reviewed the previous 10 NBA drafts, examining the number of point guards drafted.

2002: 13
2003: 15
2004: 16
2005: 12
2006: 12
2007: 10
2008: 8
2009: 18
2010: 7
2011: 19 

This includes all guards who can run the point and those considered to be “combo” guards.  

The 2009 draft was a great year for point guards entering the draft; 18 were drafted. The following season, John Wall was taken with the first pick by the Wizards and only six point guards were selected after him. All four second-rounders selected are not active in the league today. 

Because an abundance of big men chose to stay in school based on the NBA lockout and CBA negotiations, the 2011 draft was relatively weak. There were 19 point guards selected in 2011, setting the tone for less to get drafted this year.

Taking a closer look, we see that this year’s draft class is very deep. Although Jared Sullinger, Harris Barnes and Perry Jones III returned for their sophomore campaigns this season, it is likely they will all enter the 2012 NBA Draft. NCAA Champion Kentucky has the potential to have six players drafted. Andre Drummond is a big man with a lot of potential, and his UConn teammate Jeremy Lamb will almost certainly excel in the NBA. North Carolina, Duke and Syracuse should all provide some draft quality candidates as well.

Despite what appears to be a very deep draft class, the point guard position lacks candidates who will make an immediate impact at the NBA level. Looking at previous drafts, and the fact that 19 were selected in 2011, I predict only eight to 12 point guards will be drafted, the majority of which will be second round picks.

I believe only one point guard will be selected as a lottery pick.  

Analyzing available point guard draft candidates should paint a clear picture as to why I feel this way. Below is a list of 26 players who can run the point that may potentially enter the 2012 NBA Draft. Although they all likely believe they are NBA caliber, many will none-the-less be forced to find work overseas. 

Scott Machado
Kendall Marshall
Jordan Theodore
Dee Bost
Tu Holloway
Scoop Jardine
Tyshawn Taylor
Marquis Teague
Maalik Wayns
Jorge Gutierrez
Damian Lillard
Jordan Taylor
Tony Wroten
J'Covan Brown
Juan Fernandez
Gerald Robinson
Casper Ware
Devoe Joseph
Momo Jones
Truck Bryant
Dion Waiters
Ashton Gibbs
Malcolm Grant
Jason Clark
Menaja Nedovic
Tomas Satoransky 

If Maalik Wayns is faced with the option of returning to Villanova or playing in Europe, I would highly advise him to return for his senior season. Is he one of the top eight to 12 point guards entering the Draft? Returning to school will allow him to work on his weaknesses and provide another opportunity to lead his team to a successful season.

Villanova is a very young team that will continue to grow and develop. The Wildcats bring back 2013 seniors Dominic Cheek and Yarou Mouphtaou, who each averaged over 10 points per game, respectively. Mouphtau, a defensive force to be reckoned with, also averaged over eight boards per game. He adds a presence in the paint, averaging almost a block per game over his first three years of collegiate basketball. Returning with the hunger to succeed is sophomore JayVuaghn Pinkson, a 6-7 Brooklyn native, that will energize this squad and provide a ton of quality minutes in the front court.

With Wayns' potential return to Villanova, he will be given more responsibility and be provided an opportunity to lead a talented and promising group to the NCAA tournament in 2013.  In addition, the Big East stage is a much better place (as opposed to Europe) to display his improvements that he hopes to make this offseason. Scouts will be watching him closely to monitor his development. His athleticism, defensive skills and lateral quickness are areas that all need improvement and rumor has it he has been working very hard to change scouts’ opinions.  It will be easier to excel in the Villanova system as opposed to learning a new coach’s system overseas. With the number of drafted point guards expected to be low in June 2012, Maalik Wayns will be better off returning to school. Plus, an abundance of point guards are expected to be drafted in 2013, increasing his odds of celebrating a late birthday in June of 2013.

- Jeffrey Dobin is a certified player agent.