Today I present my lineup-based model’s projections for the Big Ten in 2013-2014. While the top of the Big Ten remains strong, the league lacks the depth it had last season.

As always, these won’t necessarily be the final numbers. Last week I presented my model’s projections for the ACC and already two teams have meaningfully improved. First, Wakes Forest added a three point-shooting specialist in Robert Morris transfer Coron Williams. Williams will be eligible immediately as a graduate school transfer and should instantly upgrade the Wake Forest offense. Meanwhile, Miami added Kansas St. transfer Angel Rodriguez and he may be able to get a family hardship waiver to play next year.

Of course it isn’t clear whether Rodriguez should play next year for Miami. Even if he plays, Miami is still going to be behind NC State in my projections and well outside the NCAA bubble. (While the Wolfpack have more talent, Jim Larranaga is the better coach which puts Miami in striking distance of NC State.) That might suggest Miami should save Rodriguez until the following season. On the other hand, Rodriguez has two years of eligibility left and the young Miami players might develop better with a true PG on the floor. Thus it may be worth getting Rodriguez on the court next season even if the NCAA tournament is out of reach.

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Michigan St.: Derrick Nix posted surprisingly low block numbers for a post-player last season and Adreian Payne was by far the better defensive rebounder. Thus the model doesn’t project a major defensive drop-off for the Spartans.

The departure of Nix may also make the offense run more smoothly. With Nix departing Branden Dawson will get a chance to play more minutes at the power forward spot which I truly believe is his natural college position. When Dawson played more minutes on the perimeter last year, his offensive rebounding numbers slipped.

Michigan:  Mitch McGary, Jordan Morgan, Glen Robinson, Nik Stauskas, and super PG recruit Derrick Walton mean Michigan will be a Top 10 team nationally again.

Wisconsin: As of May 5^th on Verbal Commits, Wisconsin has 14 players on scholarship for next year. Did the Badgers actually over-sign? Is this the sign of the apocalypse? According to Twitter the answer is no. One of the walk-on freshman was given a free ride last year.

With Josh Gasser, Ben Brust, Traevon Jackson, Frank Kaminsky, and Sam Dekker, Wisconsin should have a dominant offense again, even if the defense takes a bit of a hit with the loss of so many quality post players. And as always with Wisconsin’s depth, they can bring Top 100 freshman Nigel Hayes along slowly and limit his mistakes. Of course we all expect Wisconsin to dominate the regular season and disappoint again in the tournament. That is what Bo Ryan does.

Ohio St: I think most experts are overrating the Buckeyes because they are overlooking how important DeShaun Thomas was to the Ohio St. offense last season. The same people who expect Georgetown to fall off the map without Otto Porter don’t seem to be dropping the Buckeyes much at all. But Thomas was responsible for a much larger portion of the Ohio St. offense. With all the key defensive players back, the model thinks Ohio St. will have the best defense in the nation. But the offense will probably struggle at times next season.

Iowa: Aaron White and Roy Marble are already stars. Mike Gesell and Adam Woodbury were Top 100 recruits out of high school and both should make a significant sophomore year leap. Plus Josh Oglesby should bounce back from a subpar season. Oglesby shot 37% from three two years ago, but only 27% last season. And with virtually the entire rotation coming back, Iowa won’t have to break in a bunch of new freshmen. Overall that is a formula for an offense that should be substantially improved. This is the season Fran McCaffery finally breaks into the top of the Big Ten.

Indiana: I may have the most pessimistic projections in the nation for Indiana next year, but let me explain what the model is thinking. Essentially everyone who has Indiana in the Top 25 is saying this, “Well they aren’t going to fall that much. They still have some talented players coming in. They’ll still be pretty good.” But having talented players doesn’t ensure anything. What allows coaches to reload and stay in the Top 25 is teaching elite defense to young players. The reason Kansas is projected as a Top 25 team has everything to do with the defense. And Tom Crean doesn’t have a great defensive track record. His only elite defensive teams have come when he has had veteran squads at Indiana and Marquette. He isn’t that good at getting young players to play great defense immediately.

And anyone who studies college basketball closely realizes that even teams with loads of talent can take time to gel offensively. Look no further than North Carolina last year. They were 11^th in last year’s AP preseason poll because they were loaded with Top 100 recruits. But I had the Tar Heels 26^th in my preseason rankings and they finished with the 30^th best margin-of-victory numbers in the nation. The reality is, if you are going to rely on recruits outside the Top 20 (and only Noah Vonleh is a Top 20 recruit,) it usually takes time for those players to figure out the college game.

Even the late transfer of Remy Abell hurts. While Abell didn’t seem to do much against good teams last year, he did show signs of an outside shooting touch. Abell’s departure drops Indiana to a .500 team in my model. The future is still bright for the Hoosiers, especially in 2014-2015. And Indiana will likely be a tournament team in 2013-2014. But I disagree with folks who have the Hoosiers in their Top 25.

Purdue: After Indiana, I am rather pessimistic about the rest of the league. While most of the teams have smart coaches who will get their teams to play good enough defense to be competitive, the talent difference between the top and bottom of the league is pretty significant.

The best news for Purdue is that the Boilermakers gave fully 44% of their minutes to freshmen last year. That investment in young players should pay off this season. Most notably, tons of prognosticators are in love with AJ Hammons potential. Clearly many of the freshmen mistakes that plagued the team last season should be eradicated this year.

But this team simply lacks the depth to compete with the top teams in the league on a consistent basis. The slew of recent transfers is actually a bit of mixed bag in that regard. Even if Anthony Johnson and Jacob Lawson had returned, that wouldn’t have helped a lot. Anthony Johnson improved his free throw shooting last year, but still struggled mightily with his shot, posting an ORtg of 89. And Lawson basically never put up shots. Thus the loss of those two players isn’t major. But the transfer of Sandi Marcius will matter. Even if Hammons is the future of the team, Marcius would have provided needed depth in the paint. And on a roster full of improving young players, but plenty of question marks, the loss of a dependable option is costly.

The model also assumes some improvement for the Purdue defense based on Matt Painter’s early career success. But the defense has been trending in the wrong direction in recent seasons, and if that continues, Purdue could finish even lower in the standings.

Illinois, Minnesota, and Penn St.: Let’s start with the offenses. For all three teams the backcourt will be the strength. Penn St. probably has the best back-court with Tim Frazier (returning from injury), DJ Newbill, and Jermaine Marshall. But Minnesota’s unit will also be strong. Andre Hollins, Austin Hollins, and Joe Coleman all played well at times last year. Illinois’ backcourt will be the weakest, but Tracy Abrams, Joseph Bertrand, and Drake transfer Rayvonte Rice (a high volume shooter who should be more efficient in a more limited role) will still be quality Big Ten players.

But the differences are much more notable in the front-court. Penn St.’s offensive options in the post are pitiful. Ross Travis is probably the best option, but his 87 ORtg last year was dreadful. And none of the Nittany Lions other post options were even three star athletes out of high school. Certainly Penn St. will be as perimeter-oriented as possible next season, but the front-court looks like a huge offensive liability.

Minnesota brings back Elliot Eliason who had moments last year, but who shot so little he cannot be counted on to carry the load. And while Mo Walker continues to have potential, after missing a year and a half with injury, he struggled last season. And that means plenty of minutes for the highly inefficient Oto Osenieks or unranked recruit Charlie Buggs who red-shirted last season.

And suddenly here is where Illinois stands out. Nnanna Egwu isn’t a star by any means, but he had more offensive game last year than any of Minnesota or Penn St.’s post-players. And Illinois St. graduate school transfer Jon Ekey is one of those sneaky useful pickups. He didn’t score a lot last year, but he was super-efficient, and he also has an outside game. Ekey actually made 59 threes two years ago while shooting 40% from deep. Ekey and the improving Myke Henry will play a lot of stretch-4 minutes for Illinois next season.

Thus while none of these teams have great front-courts, Illinois can expect the most offense from its front-court, and Penn St. can expect almost nothing, which is why you see the offensive prediction you see above.

On defense Penn St. was miserable last season and without any true post options, expect more of the same. Illinois should drop-off some, but don’t expect a huge drop-off. The departing Sam McLaurin and Tyler Griffey were dreadful defensive rebounders. Minnesota is the real wild-card here, as it is a bit hard to project how Richard Pitino will do in his first season.

Final Note: I mentioned on Twitter a few weeks ago that Illinois was a 6-12 team. But the addition of Jon Ekey really is a big deal in the lineup based model. Instead of needing to rely on unranked recruits Austin Colbert and Maverick Morgan to play major minutes in the post as freshmen, with Ekey available Illinois can break those two players into the lineup more slowly.

Northwestern: Even if Bill Carmody had kept his job, this was going to be a different Northwestern team this year. With the teams three most efficient players graduating, there simply were not going to be enough great outside shooters to run the offense Carmody loved. (To some degree, there were not a lot of great outside shooters last year. It was Northwestern’s worst three point shooting season since 2007.) So Northwestern was going to have to try to re-invent itself around the plethora of “project” big men on the roster. New head coach Chris Collins at least has the luxury of an established point-guard and he welcomes Drew Crawford back for a fifth season of eligibility. But beyond those two players, basically everyone else is projected to have an ORtg below 100. And that means Collins has his work cut out for him. I truly believe Collins will get Northwestern to the NCAA tournament. But give him some time to bring in his players.

Nebraska: Nebraska returns just 52% of its possessions from last year which should slow the momentum Tim Miles was building late in the season. JUCO transfers Leslee Smith and Deverell Biggs, Texas Tech transfer Terran Petteway, and Florida transfer Walter Pitchford should add some experience which might help a little. But none of them would start for a good team in the Big Ten. (Petteway had a hideous 75 ORtg in limited minutes for Texas Tech. I remember watching him two years ago and thinking that he had no idea what a good shot was. Perhaps that is correctable, but he was still dreadful.) Realistically, this is still the beginning of the rebuilding project. Tim Miles needs to give a lot of minutes to his young players next year and build for 2015-2016.

Before I start looking at the impact of injured or suspended players, I want to talk a little about losing streaks. (This piggy-backs nicely on Ken Pomeroy’s recent writing on the predictive power of wins.) This weekend we heard a lot about Louisville’s three-game losing streak and Minnesota’s four-game losing streak.

The point I want to make is that not all losing streaks are created equally. When Illinois went on a recent losing streak against Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northwestern, John Groce’s team played distressingly poor basketball. They played basketball roughly equivalent to the 229th best team in the nation. That was the type of losing streak that correctly caused people to adjust their expectations. Even if Illinois had a few nice wins early in the year, they were NOT a Top-25 team.

But Minnesota and Louisville’s recent losing streaks have been much less distressing. While losing four in a row, Minnesota has still played roughly equivalent to the 32nd best team in the nation. And while Louisville has lost three in a row, the Cardinals have been roughly equivalent to the 55th best team in the nation. Both losing streaks could have easily been stopped with a few bounces. Had Minnesota’s Rodney Williams made a free throw in a one point loss, or had Georgetown’s seldom used Aaron Bowen not tipped in a circus shot against Louisville, we wouldn’t be talking about long losing streaks at all.

That’s not to say that those two teams are playing well right now. Both team’s offenses and defenses have fallen off in recent games. But neither team’s performance is remarkably distressing. In fact, I’m much more distressed by how Kentucky is playing in the SEC this season. The Wildcats have gone 4-2, but given how poor the SEC is this year, Kentucky has actually been playing worse basketball than Louisville during the losing streak.

*Does not include Sunday’s game.

Splits replicate the Adjusted Offense and Defense calculation on Kenpom.com which controls for opponent quality and venue. These measure how many points the team would score on a neutral floor against an average D1 team based on the team’s performance in the sample of games.

All this suggests that Minnesota and Louisville will be relevant at the end of the year, while I can’t be quite as certain about Kentucky.

For the record, I am a little nervous about Russ Smith’s play the last two games. Louisville’s national-player-of-the-year candidate has posted ORtgs below 100 in back-to-back games. (From the sideline, I can tell you Georgetown freshman D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera was very much bothering Russ Smith on Saturday.) Louisville hasn’t quite played a juggernaut schedule yet, and I’m worried if Smith might revert to his old inconsistency under the grind of Big East play.

Unfortunately, sometimes a breakout performance is just a hot-streak. As an example, look at Florida St.’s Michael Snaer. Snaer posted a career high 110 ORtg last year, and everyone thought he would be an ACC superstar this year. But Snaer has always had turnover problems prior to last season, and after a year of cutting down the turnovers, Snaer’s turnovers are back with a vengeance this season. Snaer’s ORtg has suffered because of it.

Similarly, Wisconsin's Ryan Evans is making last year look like the fluke. Here are Evan’s ORtgs over the last four years:

2009: 92

2010: 82

2011: 102

2012: 92

Sometimes when inefficient players suddenly look efficient, it really is just a temporary fluke. Russ Smith has clearly played brilliantly this season, but until we get to March, I am always going to wonder if the inconsistent Russ Smith, who falls in love with impossible shots, isn’t still around.

Of course, even if I believe in Minnesota and Louisville, these losing streaks will matter to the NCAA selection committee. And personally, I believe they should matter. A lot of people advocate for seeding the NCAA tournament based on team quality (read: Margin of Victory), not based on team accomplishment (read: Quality Wins). And I understand the arguments. Certainly, when you don’t seed by team quality, you run into situations where a 1-seed gets a horrible draw. And the NCAA committee is instructed to pick the BEST teams for the tournament.

But I view it this way. You can either win an NCAA title by over-achieving in the regular season or over-achieving in the post-season.

No one wins the NCAA tournament without performing above expectations. If you look pre-tournament, no team is favored to win more than four games. But every year someone wins 6 games and over-achieves. Similarly, some teams over-achieve in the regular season. They earn surprising wins and earn better seeds, even though they have to squeak by with a series of close wins. But why condemn over-achievement in the regular season when we don’t condemn over-achievement in the tournament?

Louisville and Minnesota are under-achieving. That just means they have a harder road to post-season glory. It doesn’t mean they are bad teams.

Injury Splits, Part 1

Over the next two days, I’m going to talk about where injuries or suspensions may be skewing our evaluation of various teams. I won’t be talking about all of this year’s critical injuries. For example, Wisconsin’s Josh Gasser, Missouri’s Michael Dixon, and Tennessee’s Jeronne Maymon have missed the entire season. While those injuries have clearly hurt their teams, because they didn’t play a minute this year, the Pomeroy and Sagarin ratings for those teams accurately reflect their future expectations.

But when players are out for a period of time (like Duke’s Ryan Kelly), it can take awhile for the rankings to catch up. Duke is now playing worse basketball, and we may want to look at how much worse the Blue Devils are playing without Kelly.

Of course not every player who is injured matters. For that reason I focus on players who play at least half their team’s minutes. And often we are looking at very small samples. Random noise may certainly explain some of the deviations from the norm. But I do think it is informative to look at how teams have performed without their missing stars.

A lot of smart folks have written about how Duke will be a much worse team without Ryan Kelly. I wasn’t quite as convinced because I happen to have high expectations for Duke’s Amile Jefferson. But through four games, the numbers are clearly worse without Kelly in the lineup. Duke’s offense has slid, and their defense has fallen off a cliff.

That’s probably too big a drop off to be permanent, and Duke’s horrific performance at Miami felt like a once-per-season collapse, not a permanent sign of bad things to come. But I think it is informative how Mike Krzyzewski is allocating playing time with Kelly out. While Amile Jefferson has seen his percentage of minutes increase from 21 percent to 58 percent in the four games Kelly has been out, the second biggest beneficiary of playing time is actually Mason Plumlee. And this worries me a little bit if I’m Duke. Plumlee has been playing 96 percent of Duke’s minutes since Ryan Kelly has been out, and Krzyzewski seems hesitant to ever take him out. I worry that all those minutes are having a negative impact on Plumlee’s energy level. Plumlee’s ORtg was 115 prior to Kelly going down, and has been just 95 in the four games since Kelly went down. Some of that is due to the tougher ACC defenses Plumlee has faced, but you have to wonder if the lack of rest time is hurting Plumlee’s overall performance.

However, I honestly think Duke may be better in the long-run if Kelly can come back. That’s because Jefferson has thrived as an offensive player now that he is getting more playing time. Jefferson has seen his ORtg increase from 104 before the Kelly injury to 119 after the injury. Now that he finally has a chance to get a rhythm in games, Jefferson is showing his offensive talents. If Jefferson can eventually improve his defense, his development will only be an asset for Duke come tournament time.

The second most important injury split in this column might be the Wyoming split listed above. Ever since Luke Martinez was suspended for his role in a bar room brawl, Wyoming’s offense has fallen off a cliff. You simply cannot lose such a potent scorer and expect to replace him with other rotation players. Larry Shyatt has done a masterful job keeping Wyoming playing elite defense without Martinez. And that defense will keep Wyoming competitive in the MWC this year. But Wyoming simply lacks offense without Martinez.

Lastly, Marquette’s offense has improved since Todd Mayo joined the team mid-semster. (Mayo was suspended for the first semester.) Mayo’s ORtg hasn’t been fantastic, but he has been aggressive and has attracted some offensive attention. The part I find more interesting is that Marquette’s defense has sagged since Mayo joined the team. In fact, in the last game against Providence, Mayo received an unusual DNP-Coach’s Decision.  Buzz Williams explained his decision not to play Mayo by saying he didn’t have anyone for Mayo to defend. But it certainly seemed puzzling for Mayo to go from over 20 minutes per game to riding the bench for a non-disciplinary reason.

Long Island was the media’s pick for the NEC title this year because they returned almost their entire rotation from last year’s tournament team. But Long Island’s season was off to a disappointing start, and then super-scorer Julian Boyd went down. And while a recent winning streak has improved expectations somewhat, this remains a heart-breaking season for fans of the team.

Former South Florida guard LaVonte Dority joined Valparaiso mid-season, and the aggressive offensive player has helped boost the team’s overall performance. He is attracting a ton of attention and making his teammates better.

Finally, Gregg Marshall has to be a national coach-of-the-year candidate. He lost virtually his entire rotation to graduation, but in November and December his team continued to play at a very high level. Then on Dec. 20th he faced a situation where three of his key rotation players were out. Carl Hall, Ron Baker, and Evan Wessel were all injured and missing in action. And yet since that time, Wichita St. has actually played better basketball. Carl Hall has returned for the last four of those games, but Gregg Marshall’s ability to find new players and stick them in the lineup has been nothing short of amazing.

Arguably, Missouri has never been at full strength (since Michael Dixon left the team), but for two games in December they had everyone else active. They crushed South Carolina St. by 50 and beat an Illinois team that was playing well at that time.

The rest of the season has seen key player’s missing and the team’s performance has suffered because of it. Bowers injury has clearly been the worst, but Missouri wasn’t exactly playing elite basketball before Jabari Brown became eligible either.

I’m not going to show the Kentucky or Louisville splits (since I discussed those teams at length earlier), but surprisingly, their struggles cannot really be tied to Willie Cauley-Stein’s injury, Ryan Harrow’s early absence, or Gorgui Dieng’s absence.

Click here for Part 2: James Southerland, Greg Whittington, Taylor Braun, CJ McCollum, Mike Moser, Kris Dunn and more.

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- When is Marquette going to start Davante Gardner? He was 6-for-6 from the floor on Saturday and he is by far the Golden Eagles most efficient offensive player. I know Chris Otule is an outstanding defensive player, but it seems crazy to me that Gardner isn’t averaging over 30 minutes a game. Marquette needs every point they can get as they showed in escaping their first three Big East games with narrow wins. Marquette won two of those games in OT, and the third game by one point.

- I love Fran Fraschilla’s commentary on Oklahoma St.’s Le’Bryan Nash. Nash thinks he needs to play like an NBA small forward and dominate the game with his shooting. But what he should really be doing is using his physicality and athleticism to dominate the paint. There is no reason for a player with his skill set to float so much on the perimeter. Nash has a below 4% offensive rebounding rate which is just silly for a player with his ability. Nash’s Oklahoma St. team fell at Oklahoma on Saturday and Nash has to play better for Oklahoma St. to finish near the top of the Big 12.

- Even if Illinois was ranked and Wisconsin was not, smart money said Wisconsin was going to win Saturday’s game. The final margin may have been a bit of a surprise, but after Wisconsin jumped out to a 14-0 lead, it was not particularly shocking. I personally believe the days of Illinois winning at the Kohl center may be numbered. While Bruce Weber’s offense was Bo Ryan’s kryptonite, I think Bo Ryan’s system is a terrible matchup for John Groce’s system. One of the things John Groce has tried to instill at Illinois is an aggressive attacking team that doesn’t regret making mistakes. If Brandon Paul wants to go down the court and take a bad shot, he isn’t going to have to look over at the bench and see Weber threatening to take him out. But Wisconsin is the type of team that crushes careless teams. If you shoot early in the shot-clock, you are going to spend 30 minutes of the 40 minute game on defense. And if you take chances on defense, the Badgers are going to move the ball and wait until they get a wide open three or dunk. While John Groce’s system is more fun to watch and has already paid dividends with the early wins against Butler, Gonzaga, and Ohio St., it isn’t the recipe to beat the Badgers, especially in Madison.

- Butler’s Rotnei Clarke uses fully 30% of his teams shots when on the floor and was coming off a 28 point performance, so it really was a heroic effort for Butler to win at Dayton after Clarke suffered an awful looking head and neck injury early in the game. But six players scored off the bench for the Bulldogs in the win.

- Yes, Elston Turner got hot and scored 40 points, and that is why Texas A&M won at Kentucky. But the scariest part of the win is it didn’t really feel like a fluke. First, Kentucky knew Turner was A&M’s leading scorer, so they need to take the blame for not focusing more on shutting him down. But second, this didn’t seem like some superhuman effort where Kentucky was draped over Turner but he couldn’t miss. (Compare this to the threes Brandon Paul hit with Aaron Craft in his face in the Illinois-Ohio St. game last year.) Turner mostly just seemed to get his shots in the flow of the offense. With about 4 minutes left in the game, the score was tied at 63, and you would have thought Kentucky had the best chance to run its sets and get the victory. But A&M calmly ran its offense and found wide-open shooters, while Kentucky did not. The Aggies simply executed better than the Wildcats, and following their close game against Vanderbilt, Kentucky looks nothing like a Final Four team at this point.

Speaking of real Final Four contenders, Saturday featured two simultaneous noon games of key national importance. Minnesota traveled to Indiana in a battle of Top 10 teams. And Duke traveled to NC State in a battle between the current and preseason ACC title favorite. Through the wonder of the DVR, I was able to watch every minute of both games:

#8 Minnesota at #5 Indiana, #1 Duke and #20 NC State

Pregame North Carolina: The key storyline on this day was that Duke was playing without Ryan Kelly for the first time after Kelly suffered a leg injury. I am very curious to see how Duke responds without Kelly in the lineup. On the one hand, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Duke play better. Kelly’s defensive rebounding remains a liability, and Duke has a number of talented players like Top 25 recruit Amile Jefferson, who are just dying to get more playing time. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see someone blossom in Kelly’s absence. On the other hand, Kelly’s replacements Josh Hairston and Amile Jefferson have not really been good defensive rebounders either, and their inexperience could be costly in certain situations.

Opening Minute NC: Scott Wood nailed a three to give NC State the first points of the game. For the most part Duke did a tremendous job containing Wood on the day, but given that Mike Krzyzewski emphasizes denying three point shots, seeing Wood get an open three early had to bother him.

Opening Minute Indiana: The beauty of Indiana is that the Hoosiers can put four outside shooters on the floor and provide a ton of space for Cody Zeller to operate in the paint. Indiana takes a 4-0 lead on Minnesota when Zeller runs a slip screen at the top of the key and escapes for a wide-open lay-up.

14:30 NC: Duke Freshman Amile Jefferson checks into the game for the first time. At first CJ Leslie attacks Jefferson and draws a foul. But then Jefferson has an extremely nice sequence of game play. Jefferson gets a steal, blocks a Lorenzo Brown drive from behind, and hits a beautiful floater in the lane.

This type of thing has to be extremely frustrating for NC State fans. While NC State’s starters are fantastic, they have so little depth this year that any roster issue could be crippling. When an NC State player was arrested earlier in the week, Wolfpack fans everywhere had a momentary panic attack until realizing it was a walk-on. Meanwhile Duke has elite recruits riding the pine.

13:30 IND: Cody Zeller hedges on a screen attempt. And Zeller actually forces a turnover on Minnesota’s Andre Hollins. Zeller’s  lateral quickness is incredible.

12:20 IND: Indiana’s Yogi Ferrell blocks and alley-oop intended for Minnesota’s Rodney Williams and then runs to the other end of the court for a lay-up. Indiana isn’t an elite defensive team, but they’ve clearly made huge strides from last season and Zeller and Ferrell are a huge reason why.

9:27 NC: Josh Hairston grabs a rebound and CJ Leslie rips it out of his hands. At this point in the game, Jefferson has outplayed Hairston as the Ryan Kelly replacement.

9:14 NC: Rasheed Sulaimon misses a dunk. Fans everywhere get the rare treat of Dick Vitale criticizing a Duke player for not making the smart play and taking the lay-up.  It is worth noting that after Sulaimon scored in double figures in 9 of his first 11 games the scouting reports are starting to come out, and Sulaimon has only hit the double figure mark in 1 of his last 5 games.

8:35 NC: Scott Wood hits a three and gets fouled. But then he foolishly starts jawing with Duke’s Tyler Thornton. Wood is lucky to get a double technical as Thornton is walking away and just shoves Wood to stop Wood from following him. This really looked like a situation where Wood was the only guilty party. Worse yet for Wood, this incident fires up Duke’s defense and Wood doesn’t get an open look at a three the rest of the day.

4:05 NC: CJ Leslie catches an alley-oop over Josh Hairston and I am now convinced Amile Jefferson is the better Ryan Kelly sub.

0:00 NC: TJ Warren hits a buzzer beater just before half-time.

Meanwhile, jumping back a few minutes in Indiana:

10:30 IND: Gus Johnson credits Indiana’s Jordan Hulls with getting a good look at a three, but that isn’t right. Minnesota is playing zone and Hulls dribbles, pump fakes, and then takes a three. That isn’t a rhythm shot and Hulls misses. The next trip down the floor, Hulls catches a pass and launches a shot a full three steps beyond the three point arc. This shot went in because Hulls caught and shot in rhythm.

Shortly thereafter Minnesota’s Andre Hollins drives and tries to take a shot from the top of the key. But Indiana’s Victor Oladipo is up for the block and forces Hollins into a bad pass and turnover instead of taking the jumper. (This may seem subtle, but this play is important later.)

And suddenly the flood waters are unleashed. Indiana goes on an 18-2 run and eventually takes a 23 point lead into half-time. I really cannot explain what it is like when Indiana gets hot offensively. Indiana just has so many scary scorers that they can just blitz teams. At no point did I think Minnesota was playing horrible defense. But all of a sudden I looked up and Indiana had made 7 of 11 threes, a bunch of easy inside baskets, and suddenly the Hoosiers had 52 points at the half and a 23 point lead.

16:21 Second Half IND: Indiana opens up the second half playing sloppy basketball. The Hoosiers commit two offensive fouls and then get called for stepping over the baseline on an inbounds pass. But it is hard to blow a 23 point lead, and Indiana keeps a comfortable margin for most of the half. Even having watched it all on the DVR, I am shocked by how little happens early in the second half. Indiana is coasting and in complete control.

9:12 IND: Zeller has a beautiful drive from the top of the key that results in a one-handed dunk, and the lead is still 19. Pretty much everyone watching the Minnesota vs Indiana game has flipped to Duke vs NC state long ago.

Back in North Carolina:

14:37 NC: Down 8, Josh Hairston dives on the floor for a loose ball.

6:22 NC: Hairston grabs an offensive rebound and kicks it to Seth Curry for a wide-open three. The lead is down to 5. While Hairston’s effort might be questioned in the first half, it cannot be questioned in the second half.

3:25 NC: TJ Warren nails a tough shot from the right side of the key and I continue to wonder why Warren isn’t getting more freshman-of-the-year publicity. He is shooting nearly 70% on the season and never turns the ball over. Perhaps his lack of rebounding has been the issue (and Mason Plumlee did have another huge offensive rebounding day), but Warren hit some key baskets in this game.

3:15 NC: In a very scary moment, Seth Curry collapsed to the floor without being touched. It seems odd to say it, but it was nice to see on the replay that Curry slipped. When I saw it live, I thought for sure he tore his ACL as that would be the only thing that could explain him collapsing like that. But with his leg slipping out from underneath him, it is possible the leg injury is not a full tear. Still, on a day where Duke was relying heavily on Curry’s scoring, his injury essentially locked up the win for NC State.

4:35 IND: The country tunes back into the Minnesota-Indiana game, they see the Hoosiers are still up 15, and they start getting ready for football.

2:48 IND: Indiana’s Victor Oladipo fouls a three point shooter for the second time today. Remember earlier when I mentioned that Oladipo was being super aggressive in trying to block jump shots. Well, Minnesota has figured this out and has adjusted. They are now using Oladipo’s aggression against him.

1:31 IND: Rodney Williams misses a put-back dunk with Minnesota down 8. This seems like a key miss.

0:40 IND: This is probably the most improbable comeback I have ever seen. Minnesota has cut the lead from 23 to 6, but it has never felt like Minnesota had any momentum. The Hoosier crowd has continued to support their team throughout, and Minnesota has never been able to rattle Indiana or go on that 10 point run that really makes you ponder the outcome. But when Christian Watford sends a pass into the bench with a six point lead, for the first time the game looks interesting.

0:20 IND: Minnesota’s Andre Hollins gets Victor Oladipo to jump into the air again and draws the contact. Oladipo fouls out while fouling a Minnesota three point shooter for the 3^rd time on the day. Give Hollins credit for seeing what Oladipo was doing and taking advantage of it. Tom Crean tells Oladipo that the Hoosiers didn’t need a blocked shot at that point. Hollins makes 2 of 3 free throws to cut the lead to 3 points.

0:19 IND: Minnesota fouls on the inbounds pass. Indiana’s Jordan Hulls misses two free throws seemingly giving Minnesota a chance, but Tyler Zeller tips the free throw miss, Minnesota’s Trevor Mbakwe falls to the ground, and the Hoosiers get the ball.

There is something amazingly ironic about one of the Hoosiers’ all-time best free throw shooters missing two in a row, and one of the Gopher’s all-time best rebounders failing to corral a board with the game on the line.

And so Indiana holds on to win, although it doesn’t really feel like a win. While I thought the Hoosiers might have more depth and be able to use it, both teams relied heavily on their starters. Amazingly, all 10 starters in the Minnesota vs Indiana game scored in double figures.

Duke is no longer undefeated and Seth Curry’s injury remain a big concern heading into the week. Luckily he has 10 days to heal up before Duke’s next real test at Miami.

NC State gets the joy of beating Duke, but oddly in a season with high expectations for the Wolfpack, this game was more of a relief than a joy. By beating Duke at home, NC State now has a reasonable chance to win the ACC title. But they have a lot of big games ahead of them.

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