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Way Too Early Top 25 Projections

I am once again breaking out my lineup-based projection model to predict the 2014-15 season. A lot can still change. ESPN’s #2 Recruit Myles Turner has yet to make his college choice. There are a number of intriguing players available who have graduated and are eligible immediately. And there are also several Top 10 JUCO recruits who have yet to commit. Last year, I had Kansas as a borderline Top 25 squad in my first projection, and then they added Andrew Wiggins and Tarik Black and became an obvious Top 10 squad.

Somewhat unusually, I think we have a pretty good idea who is leaving in the draft this year. When a player’s decision is an open question, I list that in my discussion below. For the record, I’m projecting that Julius Randle, Will Cauley-Stein, James Young, and both Harrison twins leave Kentucky, but that everyone else returns. And I’m assuming that Kyle Anderson and Jordan Adams leave UCLA based on the CBS Sports notes that suggest they will leave.

One final technical note: The results I am presenting are based on the mean projection for each player. I am saving the simulation portion of the model for later this year. The idea of the simulation is to show what happens if players fall above or below expectations and show the best and worst case scenario for each team. But the real purpose of the simulation model is to evaluate each team’s depth. And right now a number of quality teams would look pretty bad based on limited depth. That will be corrected with the addition of a late signing, eligible transfer, or JUCO recruit. Because the bottom of each team’s roster is in such flux, I don’t think it makes sense to show the simulation results at this point in the year.

Pred Pyth = Predicted Pythagorean Winning Percentage, the winning percentage against an average D1 team on a neutral floor.

Pred Off = Predicted Offense, Points Scored per 100 Possessions

Pred Def = Predicted Defense, Points Allowed per 100 Possessions

2014 Off = 2013-14 Offense

2014 Def = 2013-14 Defense

RMin = Projected Returning Minutes

T100 = Projected Players on Roster who were once Top 100 recruits

Rnk

Team

Conf

Pred Pyth

Pred Off

Pred Def

2014 Off

2014 Def

RMin

T100

1

Arizona

P12

0.963

119.8

90.1

114.7

88.5

82%

8

2

Kansas

B12

0.952

120.0

92.5

116.8

96.3

68%

10

3

Duke

ACC

0.943

122.0

95.5

123.5

102.3

47%

10

4

Wisconsin

B10

0.934

121.9

96.7

120.8

97.6

82%

3

5

Florida

SEC

0.920

116.3

94.0

115.3

89.2

47%

7

6

Michigan

B10

0.919

121.8

98.6

124.1

102.1

73%

5

7

Kentucky

SEC

0.916

118.9

96.6

118.4

97.1

21%

7

8

N. Carolina

ACC

0.914

116.4

94.7

111.7

95.4

74%

10

9

Connecticut

AAC

0.910

113.8

93.1

112.5

92.5

55%

6

10

Virginia

ACC

0.909

112.7

92.3

114.4

90.1

72%

4

11

Villanova

BE

0.909

116.6

95.5

113.8

94.4

78%

7

12

Wichita St.

MVC

0.908

116.9

95.8

118.1

93.3

64%

0

13

VCU

A10

0.907

109.6

89.9

107.9

90.2

70%

4

14

Louisville

ACC

0.899

113.6

93.9

116.6

90.0

41%

8

15

Syracuse

ACC

0.899

113.2

93.6

112.3

93.6

41%

7

16

Ohio St.

B10

0.898

113.4

93.9

106.5

89.6

54%

8

17

SMU

AAC

0.895

113.3

94.1

110.1

94.7

75%

3

18

Colorado

P12

0.878

114.2

96.2

105.1

96.9

99%

4

19

Baylor

B12

0.877

117.6

99.2

117.8

100.0

61%

4

20

Texas

B12

0.876

115.8

97.7

111.0

98.4

100%

6

21

Maryland

B10

0.873

112.1

94.8

107.6

95.5

99%

9

22

Iowa

B10

0.873

118.9

100.6

119.8

102.7

69%

2

23

UCLA

P12

0.872

114.0

96.5

117.0

97.3

35%

6

24

Gonzaga

WCC

0.872

116.3

98.4

111.4

94.4

64%

4

25

Utah

P12

0.861

112.2

95.8

108.7

96.5

94%

2

I see three teams that missed the NCAA tournament jumping into the Top 25:

SMU: The Mustangs had the 30th best margin-of-victory in the nation, and Nic Moore and Markus Kennedy are back. The team also adds elite PG recruit Emmanuel Mudiay.

Maryland: The Terrapins finished with the 41st best margin-of-victory in the nation in 2014. With virtually everyone on the roster back, and four four-star prospects joining the roster, there are no more excuses for losses. If Mark Turgeon cannot turn Maryland into a winner now, he is not going to keep his job.

Utah: The Utes had the 42nd best margin-of-victory in the nation last year and they bring basically everyone back. By simply upgrading the non-conference schedule, the Utes will be in the NCAA tournament hunt.

Focusing on the rest of the Top 25:

Arizona: Aaron Gordon was the least efficient offensive player in Arizona’s primary rotation, but he was also the heart of Arizona's defense. Thus as Arizona seeks to replace Aaron Gordon with elite recruit Stanley Johnson, I project that as helping the offense but hurting the defense. But the real reason I expect a big jump in Arizona's offense is the return of Brandon Ashley. Arizona's offense was four points better with Ashley in the lineup. If you don't like Arizona near the top of the rankings, you must think Nick Johnson is going to declare for the draft (which seems like a mistake) or that the defense is going to fall apart without Gordon. Given the athleticism Rondae Hollis-Jefferson showed this year, I think Arizona's defense will still be championship caliber.

Kansas: Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins should enjoy life in the NBA next year, but don't cry for Bill Self. With elite recruits Cliff Alexander and Kelly Oubre joining fold, he has already found replacements. Also, don’t forget about Arkansas transfer and former elite recruit Hunter Mickelson who is joining the team. Finally, Kansas gave a lot of minutes to freshmen besides Embiid or Wiggins, and you can expect a big sophomore leap for many of those players, including Wayne Selden.

Duke: Even without Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood, Duke has a loaded recruiting class, and I think a lot of people will be tempted to slot them #1 overall. I agree that the offense will be great and project Duke's offense as the best in the nation. The overall ranking depends on how high you project Duke's defense relative to last year. Jahlil Okafor and a more mature Marshall Plumlee will help, but Mike Krzyzewski's defensive prowess has faded in recent years. Can he really depend on a freshman to anchor the defense when the scouting reports say Okafor is good but not great on D?

Wisconsin: Only Ben Brust departs from a Badger team that was one shot away from the national title game.

Florida: The Gators front-court is graduating and the defense will take a hit. But I'm projecting Chris Walker to return, and along with Dorian Finney-Smith, Kasey Hill, and Michael Frazier the Gators should still have a dominant lineup. Also, don't overlook the importance of a healthy Eli Carter and elite recruit Devin Robinson.

Michigan: I'm assuming Nik Stauskas leaves and Mitch McGary comes back. If both come back, Michigan will have a real chance at a national title.

Kentucky: James Young got a huge steal late in the national semifinal against Wisconsin. But he had only 29 steals on the full season before that. And despite NBA size, Young and the Harrison Twins were not elite defensive players on the full season. Having a player with the quickness of elite recruit Tyler Ulis will certainly help the perimeter defense next season, and even without Will Cauley-Stein, Kentucky should still have enough elite athletes to best this year's defensive effort. Offensively, Kentucky has reached another level in the NCAA tournament, and I don't expect next year's club to match that. But with a few more non-freshmen on the team, they might be able to avoid some of the mid-season struggles, and I see a slightly better offense on the whole year.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels found a rotation late in the year that really worked. Replacing James McAdoo should be doable with incoming elite wing Justin Jackson, who lit up the McDonald’s All-American game, and returning big man Brice Johnson. The real question is perimeter depth, but the team will have three elite passing PGs. And as Connecticut and Florida showed this year, that's a formula that can work.

Connecticut: Replacing Shabazz Napier's defense might be harder than replacing his offense. Napier was an elite defensive rebounder for a guard, and he was fantastic at getting steals. The combination of NC State transfer Rodney Purvis and elite recruit Leonard Hamilton should fill in for the loss of Napier's offense, especially with Ryan Boatright easily taking over the PG role.

Virginia: A year ago I would have said Virginia would fall off a cliff when Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell graduated. But with the emergence of Malcolm Brogdon and a strong core back, Virginia should have another extremely strong season.

Villanova: Every critical player but James Bell should be back from a team that dominated the Big East.

Wichita St.: I feel like my model is under-valuing the contributions of Cleanthonly Early. But Wichita St. has four super-efficient rotation players returning (Fred Van Vleet, Darius Carter, Tekele Cotton, and Ron Baker).  And while they'll need to pick up some frontcourt size from the JUCO ranks again, that plan has worked well in recent years. Overall, Gregg Marshall is on such a role developing less heralded players, there is no reason to expect that to stop next season.

VCU: PG Briante Weber, a healthy three point shooter Melvin Johnson, and leader Treveon Graham will be back. But the best news is that Shaka Smart has finally broken into the elite recruiting game with three Top 100 freshmen coming in this year. That formula doesn't always work. Sometimes managing elite prospects is more difficult than it sounds. But on paper, this is the most athletic team Shaka Smart has ever assembled.

Louisville: Losing Russ Smith will be devastating to the offense, but you cannot under-state Smith's impact on defense too. Right now the team has enough elite recruits and returning players that the perimeter offense will be solid. But most of the young forwards are a year away from dominating at the D1 level. Thus Montrezl Harrell's NBA decision might be the most critical of any player in the country. If Harrell comes back, Louisville is a real Final Four threat. Here I project Louisville without Harrell in the lineup. Either way, I think Louisville is a team that will benefit from the simulation model when I break that out later this summer, as they have significant quality depth.

Syracuse: Based on where he is showing up in mock drafts, I'm assuming Jerami Grant declares for the draft. Even without Grant, CJ Fair, and Tyler Ennis, Syracuse still has talent. Rakeem Christmas became a better defender last year. (Jim Boeheim no longer had to give him the hook for Baye Keita nearly as often.) Chris McCullough is a quality big man recruit. And DaJuan Coleman still has the recruiting profile to say he will be a dominant player if he ever stays healthy. Michael Gbinije is a natural wing. Trevor Cooney slumped at times, but he can be a dominant shooter. And thus you can see why Jim Boeheim is so frustrated that Tyler Ennis declared for the draft. For Syracuse to stay at an elite level, they need an elite PG. Kaleb Joseph had a lower recruiting rank than Ennis, and the reality is that freshmen PGs are a big risk.

Ohio St.: Ohio St. loses the three most important offensive players from a team that was not that great offensively last season. They are easy to write off. But they have a veteran PG in Shannon Scott, they gained a huge boost with the addition of Temple transfer Anthony Lee who is eligible immediately. They add three Top 30 recruits who should boost the offense. And they get back Kam Williams, a great SG prospect who was injured and forced to red-shirt this year. Ohio St. isn't going to be the same elite defensive team, but the talent is there for the offense to make a meaningful jump.

Colorado: Colorado finished the year with the 77th best margin-of-victory numbers in the nation. Thus they make the biggest jump of anyone in my projections. There are two key reasons. First, they gave a ton of minutes to freshmen, who should take a big jump forward. Second, PG Spencer Dinwiddie should return from his injury and substantially improve the team’s offensive execution.

Baylor: Kenny Chery was a brilliant PG last year. Ish Wainwright and Allerik Freeman (an injury redshirt) won't match Bradly Heslip's shooting, but the former elite recruits should improve on his defense. Royce O'Neale is a dominant wing who should take on a larger role. Rico Gathers is a dominant rebounder. And if Austin comes back, Baylor is clearly a Top 25 team. Isaiah Austin says he hasn't made up his mind about going pro. And given that he is projected as a 2nd round pick in most mock drafts, I’m projecting that he returns here.

Texas: The Longhorns made the Round of 32 and everyone is back. They should be in everyone's Top 25.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes lose three seniors, but given how many players the team used last year, those losses are not devastating. The addition of elite JUCO PG Trey Dickerson should also help the team to find the right scorers in more situations. But the real reason this team fell apart down the stretch was because the defense collapsed. Head coach Fran McCaffery has had mixed success on defense in his career. He's had some good defensive teams and some bad ones. With just a little defensive improvement, Iowa should be back in the Top 25.

UCLA: Bryce Alford, Norman Powell, and a now-eligible Isaac Hamilton will man the perimeter. Meanwhile elite recruits Kevon Looney and Thomas Welsh will join Tony Parker in the paint. That's a pretty good core, but the lack of depth is a concern. On paper, UCLA is not that much better than Stanford, but the model has more faith in head coach Steve Alford than Johnny Dawkins over the long grind of the regular season.

Gonzaga: Transfer big man Kyle Witjer was a very good shooter at Kentucky, but his defense was suspect.

And a few notes on teams that surprised me by missing the cut:

Iowa St: If Bryce Dejean-Jones makes the jump from UNLV, that should bump the Cyclones into the Top 25. I’m making projections based on current commitments, but given Fred Hoiberg’s track record in closing the deal with transfers, I don’t have a problem with anyone assuming he will get that commitment. And I don’t have a problem with anyone putting Iowa St. in their Top 25 right now.

Oregon:  Super-scorer Joseph Young, Dominic Artis, elite PG recruit JaQuan Lyle,  elite transfer recruit Brandon Austin (eligible in December), Elgin Cook (who broke out against BYU in the tournament), elite recruit Jordan Bell (a late qualifier and red-shirt), and Top 10 JUCO forward Michael Chandler are all reasons to love this team. But I think Oregon had more talent last year, and they still finished 29th nationally. Right now this team has limited depth in the paint, but with one more transfer addition in the front-court, they can easily jump into the Top 25.

San Diego St: It cannot be over-stated how vital Xavier Thames was to the Aztecs offense and how important Josh Davis' rebounding was to the team's defense. San Diego St. has a great recruiting class filled with players who should be stars in 2016. And Angelo Chol is a transfer who could put the team over the top. But without Thames and Davis, the team falls just outside the Top 25.

Stanford: I really feel like Stanford should be in the Top 25. With Chasson Randle, Anthony Brown, Stefan Nastic, and three elite recruits, this is a team that can build on the Sweet Sixteen run. But even with the Sweet Sixteen run, Stanford's margin-of-victory on the season was only 36th nationally. And that continued a trend where Johnny Dawkins has failed to develop teams that perform on a per possession basis. Dawkins saved his job this year by making the tournament, but the long-run stats say he hasn't been great at developing players. Perhaps he will prove the model wrong by turning Reid Travis into a star this year, but right now the model isn’t convinced.

Dayton: The Flyers will show up in many people's Top 25 rankings because they played a deep lineup and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. But they lose their two most important offensive players (Devin Oliver and Vee Sanford), and don't have anyone coming in to replace them. For a team that finished 38th nationally in margin-of-victory, that isn't the formula to move up into the Top 25. But if you are looking for a reason these projections are wrong, consider that Dayton played much better basketball after February 1st.

And now a note on a few other teams that might spend some time in the Top 25 next year:

Michigan St.: The Spartans lose three critical offensive players in Adreian Payne, Gary Harris, and Keith Appling and they don’t have anyone coming in who projects to make an immediate impact. The return of key role players like Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine will keep them near the edges of the Top 25, but the Spartans take a big step back this year.

Pittsburgh: The return of Durand Johnson from injury should help offset the loss of two key seniors.

Bottom Line: Even though Michigan St. and Pittsburgh are not in my top 25, never bet against Tom Izzo and Jamie Dixon. These teams will still be very dangerous.

Georgetown, Seton Hall, UNLV: Great recruiting classes, but each team needs to improve in a number of areas to be a Top 25 team.

LSU: Another team with elite talent, that isn’t quite there yet.

Memphis: The Tigers have enough elite talent to finish in the Top 25. But they had Top 25 talent last season, and they finished with the 37th best margin-of-victory numbers. Realistically, with zero seniors in 2014-15, Memphis projects to peak in 2015-16.

Tennessee:  The Volunteers lose a ton of production, but if Jarnell Stokes comes back, they will be in the hunt.

Illinois: Jon Groce’s team finished with the 49th best margin-of-victory in the nation last year, and the team adds three quality transfers, plus incoming Top 100 recruit Leron Black in the paint. They still don’t have many star scorers besides Rayvonte Rice, but given the upgrade at PG and PF, Illinois is intriguing.

Nebraska: Tim Miles is very close and brings almost everyone back. But considering that Nebraska still has zero Top 100 recruits, if Tim Miles can get the team to jump from 44th to 30th nationally, that would still be a huge accomplishment.

Cincinnati: The offense was bad with Sean Kilpatrick and Justin Jackson in the fold. They deserve respect as the defending American Conference champs, but it is hard to see this team defending that title.

Final Thoughts On Ranking 351 D1 Teams

In case you missed it, last Thursday I presented my upgraded projections model. Then I presented my 13-14 season projections on ESPN Insider. My projections included the median simulation, best case, and worst case for every team. I also did a Q & A session with Eamonn Brennan and another one with John Templon. I have also been answering a few questions on Twitter. You would think after all those words I would have run out of things to say, but here are a few thoughts that did not quite make the cut in those articles:

The Underrated Club

Q: Why does the simulation hate Arizona St.? Jahii Carson is one of the best players in the country.

A: Arizona St. is a team with a lot of two-star players on the roster. In fact, they have the second lowest average star rating in the entire Pac-12, ahead of only Utah. Luckily a few of those players are transfers who played well for other teams. But what this really means is that Arizona St. just doesn’t have the same upside as many of the other schools in the Pac-12. Herb Sendek’s track record on defense is also a huge concern.

Q: Why does the simulation hate Maryland? A lineup of Shaquille Cleare, Evan Smotrycz, Dez Wells, Nick Faust and Roddy Peters sounds like it could hang with anyone. And Seth Allen, Charles Mitchell, and Damonte Dodd all seem like solid reserves. Why is the model so pessimistic?

A: The simulation is concerned that Maryland has only nine scholarship players on the roster. There is real downside risk with such a short bench because if a couple of players struggle or get injured, there are no alternates. Last year N.C. State entered the year with just nine scholarship players and things turned south early. Now, that doesn’t mean Maryland is destined to fail, but depth is a risk with this type of roster.

Q: Why does the simulation hate Denver? They had a great margin-of-victory numbers last year.

A: While I truly believe star ratings are important, the focus on recruiting evaluations really hurts the small conference squads in my projections. Only when a small conference team has virtually no lineup questions will that team be ranked near the top. (This year the two exceptions are North Dakota St. and Harvard. North Dakota St. brings back 95 percent of its minutes and gets a player back who was injured for much of last year. Meanwhile Harvard gets two star players back who were suspended last season.)

In Denver’s case even with several efficient players back, particularly star Chris Udofia, winning seems likely. But Denver has to replace two of the three players that played the most minutes last season. And the likely replacements will only be two-star athletes. That’s not to say that head coach Joe Scott cannot build a winner again. But it is very hard to get a Top 50 margin-of-victory in a small conference. And if Scott does it again, that should be considered a huge accomplishment. It shouldn’t be the expectation. (The real issue for Denver is finding another ball-handler to compliment Udofia. Last year Royce O’Neale and Udofia both were key distributors for the team, but with O’Neale transferring to Baylor, the remaining options are not great.)

Random Thoughts on Some Major Conference Teams

- In my Insider column, I said that the Spartans were the lowest risk team in the nation which sparked some jokes from Michigan St. fans on Twitter. I think this points out how insanely volatile college basketball can be. Even when the Spartans bring back five of their six top rotation players including three clear stars, their fanbase in nervous. Part of that is the fact that Tom Izzo’s teams notoriously struggle in November. But when a team with Top 10 talent brings nearly everyone back and their fans are nervous, you know that anything can happen in college basketball.

- Michigan’s position in 12th in my rankings is a little misleading. I honestly believe that Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson can lead this team a long way. But I am legitimately concerned about the guard rotation. John Beilein was very reluctant to play Jordan Morgan and Mitch McGary together last season because they weren’t outside shooters. So I have to assume Robinson will play most of his minutes at the four-spot again this year. But then how does the guard rotation work? Does the team play Spike Albrecht, Derrick Walton, and Nick Stauskas together? What if Albrecht and Walton aren’t ready? That is why my model has such a low downside for the Wolverines. (And don’t tell me Caris LeVert is the answer. He was a low-ranked recruit and nothing he did last season leads me to believe he should be a key player on a Top 10 team.)

- When I first ran the model, I was a little surprised the downside for Kentucky was not lower. After all, a young Kentucky team lost in the first round of the NIT last season. But this is what happens when you return two efficient high potential players (in Alex Poythress and Will Cauley-Stein), and add five Top 10 recruits. With that many high potential players, even if two or three of them struggle immensely, Kentucky can still win. Kentucky could not afford for Archie Goodwin to struggle and Nerlens Noel to get injured last season. This year if Julius Randle struggles and Will Cauley-Stein gets hurt, the team can just say “Next man in.”

- I love the range for Indiana in my ESPN Insider rankings. The team has 7 top 100 recruits, and an elite season is still possible. But given all the new faces and how little most of the returning sophomores played last year, the downside risk is major.

- If you want to vote any of my model’s Top 34 teams into the Top 25, I can see arguments for all of them. But I stick by my model’s skepticism of Baylor. Pierre Jackson carried the Bears last year and I don’t see how they can be a better team without him. Their margin of victory was 26th last year (thanks to winning the NIT) and I only give them about a 20 percent chance to do better than that.

- If you have ESPN Insider, look at how painfully low Alabama’s downside is this year. After Devonta Pollard was arrested this offseason, the team is down to nine scholarship players who are eligible this year. If someone on Alabama’s squad doesn't play well, there are no alternatives. This is too bad because Anthony Grant is such a talented young coach, but off-court issues keep derailing his teams.

- Iowa St. made a great move adding Marshall transfer DeAndre Kane. But I suspect Fred Hoiberg needed to add a couple more transfers to keep his transfer winning streak going. With 64% of the lineup gone and four of Iowa St.'s six most efficient players departing (Melvin Ejim and George Niang return), expect Iowa St. to take a step back.

- My model is more optimistic about Seton Hall than what you see in some other rankings. Texas transfer Sterling Gibbs will be a huge upgrade over Tom Maayan and his 50% turnover rate. And with fewer injuries, Kevin Willard should have the defense playing better.

Random Thoughts on Some Mid-Major Conferences

- I’ve still got St. Mary’s on the NCAA bubble. Many will discount the team after Matthew Dellavedova's departure. But Beau Leveasque and Stephen Holt aren't suddenly going to forget how to shoot. Brad Wadlow isn't going to stop being a physical force on the boards and finishing over 60 percent of his shots. This team still has talent.

- The team I think most pundits have over-rated this year is Northeastern. The Huskies were extremely lucky last year. Despite the 7th best MOV in the CAA, they won a ton of close games, including a 4-1 record in OT. Their conference title is very deceiving. With the team's leading scorer and most efficient player Joel Smith gone, a repeat conference title seems unlikely.

- One team I am buying is Weber St. Weber St. had the best margin-of-victory in the Big Sky last year. They even outscored Montana by 19 points in their three meetings. But somehow they went 1-2 against the Grizzlies and that 1-2 mark gave Montana the regular season and conference tournament title. Weber St.’s aggressive and efficient inside-outside combination of Davion Berry and Kyle Tresnak is going to make sure that doesn't happen again.

- The conference champion I expect to come out of nowhere this year is Manhattan. Manhattan somehow lost 10 games to conference foes, but only one of those games was by double digits. This team was much better than last year's conference record would indicate.

- The race for the Big West title is wide open. I have five teams projected within one game of first place in that league.

- The CUSA race should also be highly entertaining. Louisiana Tech is the only team in CUSA that returns over 70 percent of its minutes from last year. (Tech brings back 85 percent of its minutes.) And Tech's losses won't hurt the offense. The team loses its least efficient player Brandon Gibson, and the extremely passive JL Lewis. With an already solid defense and an improved offense, Louisiana Tech could be headed for the NCAA tournament. But Southern Miss is just as formidable a competitor. The newest Golden Eagle, transfer Aaron Brown, shot the ball extremely well as a sophomore at Temple. His addition could give Southern Miss the CUSA title.

- Speaking of transfers, transfer Jay Harris was the PG on a Valparaiso team that won the Horizon league title in 2012. He could be the key addition that gets Wagner an NEC conference title in 2014.

- Finally, Indiana St. PG Jake Odum has to be kicking himself that RJ Mahurin transferred out in order to play his senior year with his younger brother. Mahurin was the team's only efficient big man, and the Sycamores could have been a more realistic NCAA bubble team had Mahurin returned.

Late Breaking News

- The news that Josh Smith was eligible immediately didn’t break until after I finished my rankings. With a full season of Smith you can move the Hoyas up to 27th in my projections. But as many people have noted, because of his conditioning, it still isn’t clear how much Smith will play. The downside risk for the Hoyas remains real. However, I do think that it is a major break that Smith will be around from the start of the season. The Hoya offense is a nuanced system that depends on precise cuts and passes, and integrating Smith mid-season would have been much more difficult.

- I had already assumed Joseph Young would be eligible for Oregon so their ranking is not affected by that news. It is clear that the transfer combination of Mike Moser and Young could be one of the best inside-outside combinations in the country. But I want to offer several cautionary tales. Ryan Harrow, Trey Ziegler, and Aaric Murray were three transfers that received a ton of hype last summer, and they were all such poor fits in the new environment, they have all moved on again. We’ve seen teams bring in a bunch of transfers and live up to expectations (like Iowa St.), but we have also seen teams take in a lot of transfer and disappoint (like Missouri last year.) Transfers are high risk players, and that is why my model has such a large range for the Ducks this season.

Dan Hanner vs Ken Pomeroy

Ken Pomeroy also released his preseason rankings on Saturday. While he is rather humble about his algorithm, I think it is important to note how well his system did last season. From a modeling perspective, a more complex system is not always better.

I would argue that the real advantage of my lineup-based system is not the predictive power. The advantage is that by focusing on the lineup, my model has fewer head-scratching conclusions. For example, Ken’s team level model has Miami at 62nd this year. With basically everyone in last year’s rotation gone and Angel Rodriguez electing not to apply for a transfer waiver, that’s an extremely optimistic prediction. But that prediction is based on how well Miami did last season, not any reasonable evaluation of the current roster. The same can probably be said of Minnesota at No. 35. The Gophers had strong margin-of-victory numbers last year, so Ken’s model loves them again this season. But my model sees that the Gophers made a substantial downgrade in the front-court and added an unproven coach. My model based on the current lineup has Miami at No. 102 and Minnesota at No. 63, and I think that’s much closer to what I have seen in most expert rankings.

But while Ken’s model can cause us to scratch our heads at certain results, do not overlook his predictions. The last five seasons of data are a very strong predictor in the aggregate. (If a team had a great offense before it tends to have better facilities, higher caliber recruits, and better coaches today.) And when the results of both our models agree, those are probably the strongest predictions of all. 

American Conference Basketball Early Projection

The American Conference was in the news this last week. They launched a beta version of their new website complete with a logo. And Commissioner Mike Aresco sat down for a Q & A with Matt Norlander of CBS Sports.com. The best part might have been Aresco’s admission that losing the Big East brand might not be a bad situation for football.

In terms of expectations for next year, pretty much every preview I have read has said the same thing: Louisville, Connecticut, Memphis, Cincinnati, and Temple will be good enough to make the league relevant.

From a historical perspective, that’s correct. Those are the five teams with the most NCAA tournament appearances and most basketball success. But I don’t think people have looked hard enough at Temple’s roster or considered who the Owls have coming back next year. Temple’s streak of six straight NCAA appearances is very much in doubt. More in a moment, but first, here are my lineup-based model’s projections for the American Conference:

Team

Proj CW

Proj CL

Proj Off

Proj Def

Last Off

Last Def

T100

Ret Min

Ret Poss

Louisville

15

3

115.4

87.4

118.9

83.1

8

70%

71%

Connecticut

14

4

115.7

92.1

108.5

94.2

5

93%

95%

Memphis

12

6

110.7

91.0

105.8

90.0

7

55%

59%

Cincinnati

10

8

104.0

91.4

104.2

88.7

2

60%

60%

SMU

7

11

105.6

98.0

98.3

100.2

3

90%

94%

UCF

7

11

106.6

99.5

105.1

102.6

1

79%

77%

Temple

7

11

103.1

96.8

110.2

97.4

1

31%

28%

Rutgers

6

12

106.0

99.8

105.9

99.7

4

40%

40%

Houston

6

12

110.0

104.2

105.9

107.2

2

80%

81%

USF

6

12

102.0

96.8

98.8

97.4

1

63%

63%

For an explanation of the column headings, click here.

Louisville: We all agree Louisville is a Final Four favorite and national title contender. But here is why I will still be watching the team in November and December.

1) I want to see how Rick Pitino replaces Gorgui Dieng in the middle.

Chane Behanan and Montrezl Harrell will probably be the best offensive post players on the team. But Pitino seemed reluctant to play Behanan at times last year against larger opponents (mainly Syracuse), and while Harrell is taller, he is no 7 footer. For defensive reasons it may be desirable to play either Akoy Agau and Mangok Mathiang in the post. That will probably lead to some growing pains offensively, but their defensive presence may make up for it. Finding the right balance of players should be interesting.

2) I want to see if Russ Smith can do it again.

Russ Smith was the kenpom.com player-of-the-year because of his amazing efficiency last season, but I think there are a lot of reasons to doubt he can repeat that. For starters, players that see big jumps in efficiency typically fall back slightly the next season. And Louisville had two of the bigger jumps in ORtg last year. Luke Hancock went from an ORtg of 114 to 121, and Smith went from an ORtg of 92 to 109. In both cases it was largely due to improved shooting. Whether that improved shooting is sustainable remains to be seen.

It is also possible that Smith might be less efficient, even if he isn’t a worse player. First, teams weren’t necessarily game-planning to stop Smith last summer. You can bet that UConn coach Kevin Ollie is getting out the tape and breaking down Smith’s weaknesses this off-season. For UConn to win a league title, they have to beat Louisville. And that means shutting down Smith.

Second, NBA scouts have made a big deal of the fact that Smith has to play point guard to make it to the NBA. I think this is a little silly. Smith has already proven he can create his own shot and create for other players. His assist rate is already above 20% which would make him the lead PG on a lot of teams. But it will be interesting to see if Smith has the ball more often in next year’s offense, and if he passes more. If he does pass more, will that lead to more turnovers or even better offense?

Certainly, Smith will not have to be the primary ball-handler with Terry Rozier and Chris Jones coming in. But I expect that Smith will want to look more like a PG this year.

Connecticut: Inefficient senior RJ Evans is gone. Enosch Wolf might be gone. But with basically everyone else back, the additions of George Washington transfer Lasan Kromah and borderline Top 100 forward Kentan Facey, everyone agrees Connecticut will be better than last year. The only question is how much better. My model is optimistic, in part because Kevin Ollie did well in his first year. Ollie took over a team decimated by unanticipated transfers and guided them to a winning record in the Big East.

If you think UConn needs a dominant forward to truly be considered a Top 25 squad, then you probably remain among the skeptics. But Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright are really the dream college backcourt at this point. They are aggressive, talented, and efficient. And having played together for two seasons, they have great chemistry with one another. With two players like that in the backcourt, UConn should be able to challenge for a league title.

Memphis: At this point Memphis has so much talent in the front-court that the addition of Top 100 center Dominic Woodson barely moved the needle.* Memphis jumped from 25th to 23rd in my model nationally. And there is no question that Memphis has a deeper and more talented lineup than Connecticut. They have talented seniors, a talented graduate transfer from George Washington named David Pellom, and five Top 100 recruits coming in. So why doesn’t my model have them higher? The answer is Josh Pastner. He has had talent before, but usually under-achieved.

Pastner’s team has been in the preseason Top 25 the last three seasons, ranked 19th, 11th, and 17th. But in terms of margin-of-victory, only one of the three years was a success. His teams finished 87th, 8th, and 40th in margin of victory those three years. His teams also never earned better than a 6-seed in those three NCAA tournaments. And his 0-11 record all-time against Top 25 teams is a symptom of those overall struggles. With a different coach, Memphis would likely be second in the projected standings.

*Note: It may seem puzzling why Woodson would de-commit from Baylor due to playing time concerns, but commit to a Memphis front-court where there are already 4 players likely to play a lot of minutes. But Woodson is the only true center joining Memphis’ squad. He has more weight and size than some of the other Memphis post players and will likely be better positioned to play right away. The reason Memphis’ projection doesn’t jump up more is because Woodson is mostly just taking minutes from a similar player.

Cincinnati: While Cincinnati was in most people’s preseason Top 25 rankings last season, I had serious questions. I noted that the front-court was likely to be well below-average. I didn’t get everything right, but I nailed that prediction.

Unfortunately, most of those players are back and Mick Cronin is left to rebuild around them. I particularly feel bad for Cronin’s relationship with Justin Jackson. Jackson has been an offensive liability his entire career. But he has always worked hard and Cronin seems reluctant to bench him. Last year Shaquille Thomas was inefficient too. David Nyarsuk shot a higher percentage, but he basically only shot when he had a wide-open lay-up. And Titus Rubles looked good for awhile, but he ended the season on a horrible streak. Rubles got above 1 point per possession just once in his final 13 games.

And if that isn’t bad enough, the team doesn’t have an obvious choice at PG next year. One of three unranked recruits will likely battle for that job. Sean Kilpatrick is back, but make no mistake, this is going to be an ugly offensive team.

Luckily, Mick Cronin has really found a niche as a strong defensive coach in recent years. Assuming he can keep that up, his team will be on the NCAA bubble. But there is no guarantee that they will make the field.

SMU: Last year SMU finished near the cellar of Conference-USA which is not a good sign. But keep in mind that SMU’s margin-of-victory numbers were better than their final record. They were 316th in “Luck” according to Kenpom.com. One factor that may have prevented them from winning close games is that the team was simply exhausted. SMU gave the fewest minutes to its bench of any D1 team. Larry Brown rode his five starters as much as he possibly could.

The great news is that those five starters are back and the team adds five players that should meaningfully improve the offense. The list includes three D1 transfers (Nic Moore from Illinois St., Markus Kennedy from Villanova, Crandall Head from Illinois), and a Top 10 JUCO player in Yanick Moreira. The team also adds Top 100 freshman Keith Frazier. With that kind of talent coming in and that kind of experience coming back, SMU should improve substantially on offense this season.

UCF: Star Keith Clanton is gone and that is a big loss. But basically everyone else is back, and with so many players returning the offense will probably be even better than last year. Isaah Sykes will be on many people’s preseason all-conference ballots. He has great size for the PG position and he is aggressive and efficient. Tristan Spurlock was a Top 100 recruit out of high school and he should continue to dominate in the paint. And Calvin Newell and Kasey Wilson bring a lot to the table too (Newell more on defense than on offense.) Add JUCO transfer Eugene McCrory and a bunch of rising sophomores, and UCF looks poised for another solid year.

The reason I cannot project them for the upper-echelons of the American Conference are the questions on defense. With so many of the same players coming back who couldn’t stop teams last year, it seems likely the team’s defense will not quite be NCAA tournament caliber.

Temple: I am assuming UMass transfer Jesse Morgan will not get eligible. Eric Angevine had a nice summary of this recently. Basically, it is going to take a lot for Morgan to play basketball this season. Of course if Dez Wells got kicked out of school and managed to land on another team immediately, anything is possible. For now, this projection assumes Morgan won’t play.

Looking at Temple’s rotation from last year, here is who is departing and who is returning.

ORtg, PctPoss, Player

Leaving

108, 32% Khalif Wyatt

116, 20% Jake O'Brien

106, 19% Scootie Randall

104, 19% Rahlir Hollis-Jefferson

122, 9% TJ Dileo

Returning

108, 20% Anthony Lee

95, 17% Will Cummings

89, 17% Dalton Pepper

86, 19% Quenton DeCosey

I love Anthony Lee as much as the next guy, but it doesn’t take any advanced math to realize that Temple is losing a bunch of efficient players and returning a bunch of inefficient players. Worse yet, Khalif Wyatt shot so much, opposing defenses were focused on him. If Cummings and Pepper were struggling to score with Wyatt on the floor, how efficient are they going to be when they are asked to take more shots this season?

Temple doesn’t have an instant-impact recruiting class to depend on either. There are no transfers and none of Temple’s incoming recruits are Top 100 recruits. In fact, only one current roster player, Dalton Pepper, was a Top 100 recruit out of high school. That isn’t that unusual for Fran Dunphy. Dunphy has made the tournament six years in a row and never had multiple Top 100 recruits on the roster.

But Dunphy isn’t superhuman. He has usually achieved that success by having a veteran team and relying on returning efficient players who he can develop into stars. That’s why most experts are willing to overlook Temple’s roster uncertainty. Dunphy has surprised us before, and it isn’t a stretch to think he will do it again.

But the difference is that Dunphy has never lost this much production in one year. In his previous seven years at Temple, Dunphy has always welcomed back over 50% of the team’s minutes from the year before. This year he welcomes back just 31% of his team’s minutes. And losing Wyatt means the team returns just 28% of its offensive possessions. And as noted in the table, these are low efficiency players that are returning.

Dunphy might still surprise us. But on paper, this is clearly the worst team in Dunphy’s tenure. Even in the A-10, my model would have pegged them for a disappointing season.

Rutgers: Rutgers hasn’t received any good news in awhile, but the recent additions of transfers Kerwin Okoro and JJ Moore was a huge development. Unlike Morgan, both will be filing for fairly normal family illness immediate eligibility waivers and I’ve assumed both requests are granted.

Moore is an extremely under-rated player.  At Pitt he almost never turned the ball over despite being an aggressive inside scorer. He has shot over 50% every year in his entire career, raised his free throw percentage to 81% last season, and his career ORtgs are 108, 109, and 120. That’s the kind of smart effective player Rutgers has usually been missing on its roster.

Also, despite all the crazy transfers this off-season, Myles Mack did not depart. Mack was easily the most efficient player on the roster last year, and almost certainly the team’s MVP.

Combine Mack, Moore, a pair of JUCO guards, and hope that Kadeem Jack and Wally Judge start living up to their high potential and Rutgers might actually have a starting lineup that can compete with the better teams in the league.

But if anything goes wrong, it is going to be a total disaster. There is no depth. (That is literally true now, but assuming Jordan signs a few players before the end of the summer, they will likely only be 2 star recruits who cannot be expected to contribute as freshmen.) You can’t mention names like Malick Kone or Greg Lewis and expect to win in this league. It just isn’t feasible.

Houston: Let’s just get this out of the way. The model hates Houston’s defense. 269th in the nation is just embarrassing. Worse yet, Houston’s defense has pretty much always been at that level under James Dickey.

Now if this team gets you a little excited, particularly with elite recruit Chicken Knowles finally becoming eligible, I get that. In fact, the model above pegs them as the fourth best offense in the conference.

Lineup-wise, the only weakness is PG, but that is probably a little deceiving. Dickey’s offense doesn’t take many threes, and the pressure to get the ball into the paint contributes to an above average TO rate for any ball-handler. But obviously, if you can get the ball to a front-court of Knowles, TaShawn Thomas, and Danuel House, good things will happen. And that has meant in the rare occasions when off-guards Joseph Young and Jherrod Stiggers do shoot threes, they are usually wide open. Really, I’m excited about this team. They just need to realize you have to play both ends of the court.

USF: One player had an ORtg over 100 last year so Stan Health decided to start from scratch. In a new league where even a bad team will have more chances to win, he is going all in with six freshmen, led by Top 100 recruit John Egbunu. That should pay off someday, just not this year.

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Predictions For A10/CUSA

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NCAA Tournament Day 2

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Understanding Breakout Players

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Perry Jones, Jared Sullinger And The Devoe Joseph Riddle

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Colleges On NBA Rosters

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Printable Brackets And Early Season Tournament Odds

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Michael Beasley And The NCAA Facade

On why the revelations of Michael Beasley getting money in college are so unsurprising and why no one, not the NCAA, the NBA, the fans or the players, really cares about it.

Returning Freshmen, Big Ten And C-USA Notes

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Are Elite High School Recruits Necessary To Reach The Final Four?

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