Harvard's Upset

There is something about Ivy League schools in the NCAA tournament. In 1995, UCLA won the NCAA title. In 1996, much of the roster had turned over, but UCLA still earned a 4-seed and the Bruins were heavily favored in their first round against Princeton. Pete Carril, the legendary Princeton coach had announced his retirement prior to the game, and the Tigers pulled off a perfect game plan. They worked the clock. They played solid defense. They executed Carril’s classic back-cuts on offense. And in the final seconds, a back-cut led to a lay-up by Gabe Lewullis that finished off the epic win.

At the time it didn’t feel like just another win. I know that victories by 13-seeds hardly qualify as stunners these days. This wasn’t as big a seed upset as 15-seed Norfolk St. beating Missouri last year. The novelty of a defending champion losing is also a lot less special these days. With so many quality players leaving for the NBA, it hardly felt earth-shattering when Robert Morris defeated defending champion Kentucky in the NIT this week.

But at the time, the contrast in basketball power made this one of the biggest NCAA upsets of all time. Here was UCLA with all its legacy and all its resources, losing to a school that didn’t even offer athletic scholarships. It proved that basketball, when played right, and coached right, could be won by any team on any given day.

Thursday’s win by Harvard over New Mexico didn’t have that same dramatic feel. The ending wasn’t close. New Mexico doesn’t have the history or tradition of many power conference schools. (In fact, in many ways it was disappointing that New Mexico wouldn’t get a chance to extend one of the most dominant seasons in school history.)

But there was still something special about this win. Harvard is the quintessential academic school. It ranks in the Top 10 in just about every possible educational category from endowments, to department ratings, to future job earnings of graduates. Harvard students aren’t supposed to win in the NCAA tournament. And yet they did. And not only did they win, it didn’t require a buzzer beater.

Harvard didn’t have to execute some unorthodox strategy. This wasn’t Cornell executing yet another version of Carill’s back-cutting offense in their NCAA win. This wasn’t some completely perimeter focused-team. Tommy Amaker is a more traditional coach. And his team won playing basic basketball. They threw the ball into the paint to Kenyatta Smith and he scored over Alex Kirk and Cameron Bairstow. They attacked the paint and kicked the ball out for three. And most importantly, while they ran clock, they mostly moved the ball with the intention of scoring. Running a traditional based-attack, Harvard beat one of the big boys.

Some will say this is not your vintage Harvard team. Tommy Amaker encouraged the school to relax some of its admission standards to upgrade the basketball program. And those relaxed standards led to a horrific cheating scandal last year that caused the team’s co-captains to be dismissed before the season. But in many ways, that made Thursday’s outcome even more remarkable. Harvard had just one senior in the rotation this year. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year until the suspended players re-enrolled next season. But instead, one of the youngest teams in the nation, playing in a conference without athletic scholarships just defeated the regular season and post-season champion from one of the top conferences in the nation. By any measure, this is a special win. And the image of Wesley Saunders stealing the ball and clinching the victory is the tournament’s signature moment to date.

No Other Slippers

For most of the day, we didn’t seem to be heading towards any Cinderella team.

1pm: “I feel sorry for Bryce Drew, but this game is over.” – Charles Barkley at half-time of Michigan St. vs Valparaiso.

11pm: “Hey, I love 38 point games as much as the next guy…” – Ernie Johnson on Syracuse’s second half-lead against Montana.

And those weren’t the only small conference teams to struggle. A lot of people picked Belmont to upset Arizona based on their ability to knock down three point shots. But given Arizona’s size across the board, Belmont struggled to even get open looks. South Dakota St.’s Nate Wolters was an NCAA hero in his four year career, but Trey Burke hounded him defensively, and Wolters managed only a 3 of 14 shooting night while his team lost convincingly. If that shooting percentage sounds bad enough, New Mexico St. shot 28% as a team against St. Louis. And we’re not even going to talk about how much the basketball gods must hate Akron. Not only did Akron lose its point-guard prior to the game against full-court pressing VCU, then Akron was stricken with the flu this week. The game was ugly from the start. (If anyone picked Akron to win in your pool you should thank them for their donation. But wait, that’s probably the person who will win the whole thing.)

That isn’t to say there wasn’t some Cinderella drama throughout the day. It started with Bucknell-Butler. There was the brief moment when Bucknell took a 37 to 31 lead in the second half. We got a chance to learn about Bucknell’s 6’7” Joe Willman. He was the perfect example of a small conference senior forward playing his best game in the NCAA tournament. He knocked down the jump shots that gave his team the lead, and he even chipped in with three blocks. Willman certainly was not an outstanding athlete. But those blocks really showed that a lot of playing the post is experience and positioning. It isn’t always raw athleticism.

The close game was short lived however.  Butler had started 0-14 from three, but when Butler’s Andrew Smith and Rotnei Clarke finally nailed a pair of outside shots, Butler got on a run and somehow made the final margin a blowout.

Memphis vs St. Mary’s was closer in the final margin, but it wasn’t necessarily a more compelling upset possibility. Memphis has been one of the most fun teams to watch this year because of their fast-pace and the explosive dunking and shot-blocking of DJ Stephens. But while Stephens got his blocks, I only caught one that really showed his explosive leaping ability. And St. Mary’s slowed the game down enough that we didn’t really get to see Memphis’ exciting athleticism in action. At least the ending was a signature moment, and the sheer excitement in Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery’s voice had to make everyone smile.  They both were amazed as St. Mary’s banked in a three to pull within two points. And they were down-right giddy at the subsequent turnover on the inbounds. Mathew Dellavedova’s attempt at a game-winning three was off-the mark, but these two brilliant announcers made it worth all the replays they gave it later in the day.

Gonzaga vs Southern also had its share of close moments. At one point Southern’s Madut Bol’s and Derick Beltran hit back-to-back threes to cut the lead to 41 to 40, and Doug Gottlieb noted that the crowd was starting to get behind the 16 seed. The smell of a historical upset was in the air. And after a pair of Brandon Moore free throws made it 54-54, you could just sense the people getting home from work, turning on their TVs, and getting glued to the action. But that is when Kevin Pangos took over. Pangos hit a three pointer, a dish for a three, and a ridiculous fake-drive, step-back three pointer that put Gonzaga ahead for good.

Davidson vs Marquette was even better, but again the underdog came up short. I loved this game because it showed that sometimes you have to throw logic out the window and realize that anything can happen. The announcers kept harping on the fact that Marquette was the worst outside shooting team in the NCAA tournament and that if they fell behind, Marquette had no chance of winning. The Golden Eagles simply couldn’t hit the threes they would need to complete a comeback. Meanwhile Davidson was the best free throw shooting team in the country and could easily close out any win late. And yet Davidson somehow squandered a 9 point lead. Marquette’s Vander Blue bucked the team stats and hit a pair of late threes, and Jamil Wilson chipped in one of his own. And a turnover with 6 seconds left allowed Marquette to win it with a Vander Blue lay-up at the end of regulation. It was a dramatic win, but it meant that Cinderella was denied once again. The night would have to wait for Harvard.

Dixon Falls Again

Some fans may view Wichita St.’s dominating win over Pittsburgh as another win for Cinderella. But this was far from an epic mismatch. Rather, it was a contrast of two similar teams. Both teams don’t shoot the ball particularly well, but rely on dominating offensive rebounding and physical play to win games. And for most of the game, Wichita St. was simply the better offensive rebounding team. (Pittsburgh chipped in with some late offensive rebounds to make the numbers look more even, but by then the game was out of hand.) It also hurt that 5^th year Pitt senior Tray Woodall had a 1 for 12, five turnover performance in his final game. Woodall was playing so poorly that Jamie Dixon couldn’t even afford to play him in the last five minutes when the team was trying to come back. No one wants to see a senior go out like that. But this certainly didn’t feel like a fluke.

And it brings up more questions about whether there really is an NCAA curse associated with Jamie Dixon. Once again, his team had some of the best points-per-possession numbers in the country in the regular season. And once again Pitt lost earlier than expected. You can say that you need to have elite talent to win in the NCAA tournament, and Dixon relies more on experience and depth. And yet once again Dixon has not lost to a major conference blue blood. It wasn’t North Carolina or Kansas that took Dixon down. It was another mid-major squad. Will Dixon ever avoid NCAA disappointment at this point? You have to wonder if Dixon left for USC (which is a big rumor) whether the Pitt fans would even be disappointed.

Meanwhile, I don’t understand why Gregg Marshall isn’t on more lists for a power conference head coaching job. He took Winthrop to the NCAA tournament 7 times and finally won a tournament game at that small school. And now he has built Wichita St. into a two-year tournament team. Marshall should be on everyone’s short-list.

But even if there were no small conference Cinderalla’s, there were two major seeding upsets. And both suggested that the Pac-12 may finally be back. Early in the season I talked about all the prized freshmen and key transfers on Pac-12 teams. But they weren’t quite ready in November and December to display the conference’s improvement. Through at least one day of the NCAA tournament, the Pac-12 has made a statement.

I thought for sure Oklahoma St. would handle 12-seeded Oregon. Oklahoma St. has been very good at forcing turnovers this year, particularly star freshman Marcus Smart. And I thought with Dominic Artis still limited by injuries, and the fact that Oregon was not great at hanging onto the ball generally, that turnovers would be the difference in the game. Indeed turnovers were the difference, but it was Oregon that forced those turnovers in the first half and built a big lead. And the combination of turnovers and offensive rebounds had Oklahoma St. head coach Travis Ford fuming in his halftime interview. “We aren’t going to win if they get 21 more opportunities!” Oklahoma St. somehow flipped the turnover margin in the second half, but it was too little too late as Oregon kept the game at a manageable margin and pulled the seeding upset. I say seeding upset, because this was really just one good power conference team beating another.

12-seed Cal’s win over UNLV was a little more exciting. Cal’s never-ending string of missed free throws at the end nearly gave UNLV a chance to win in regulation. But Cal eventually hung on while playing in front of a favorable home crowd in San Jose.

Where is the NBA Talent?

At one point in the day, Charles Barkley was reciting his normal line. “Team X has the best player on the floor. He has to play well and then they should win.” But today basically showed that this is a dumb philosophy in this year’s tournament.

First, there aren’t any can’t miss NBA stars in college this year. There’s a reason no one in the NBA is tanking to win the draft this year. It isn’t clear that the top pick is really much better than the 11^th pick. Trey Burke is my personal favorite player because of his all-around ability to manage the game as a point guard, but Burke was a surprising 2 of 12 from the field against South Dakota St. Meanwhile, UNLV’s Anthony Bennett was completely kept under wraps in one of the night games. Bennett did get to 15 points thanks to the free throw line and did grab 11 rebounds, but he wasn’t impacting the game like he sometimes does. That was because California played a very smart zone defense for most of the game. It led to far too many outside shots for UNLV and far too little utilization of UNLV’s future pro.

But that is the other reason Barkley’s philosophy is wrong. In college, the rules aren’t designed for one-on-one basketball. You can always take one player away. And since no one has Kentucky type talent across the board this year, there is no star you can count on to dominate the game. College basketball is a team game, not a star game.

Expected Win in Field of 64

Finally, I end with my traditional table on each day’s winners and losers. The table lists the expected wins in the field of 64 using the Pomeroy Rankings. Arizona was expected to win 1.17 games before Thursday and their own win increased their expectation to 1.87. New Mexico’s loss (and other adjustments in team rankings based on game margins) further increased that expectation to 2.37.

Contrast that to Michigan. The Wolverines won which increased their expected wins by 0.29, but because VCU won (and won in dominant fashion), Michigan’s win expectations decreased by 0.22.

Indiana didn’t play but their expectation fell slightly because Syracuse won and won in impressive fashion.

Because of the fast pace of both teams, BYU versus Iona has the potential to be one of the most entertaining First Four games of all-time. Also, I am salivating at seeing Missouri’s guards and Florida’s guards potentially clashing in the round of 32. But before I start breaking down the bracket, let’s throw a few quick stats at the wall:

Which Conferences Did the Best?

One thing I like to track during the NCAA tournament is whether conferences are exceeding expectations or falling short. One way to do that is to look at how seeds have performed from 1985 to 2011 and predict an expected number of wins for each conference.

(Note: In all tables I am only counting wins in the Round of 64 and beyond.)

Based on these seed expectations and the seeds received, the Big East should win the most games in the tournament, but the Big Ten is expected to win nearly as many games with three fewer teams.

We can also use this year’s margin-of-victory numbers to form an expectation. In the next table I use Ken Pomeroy’s predicted probabilities. Here we get a slightly different picture. His model expects the Big Ten to win the most games in the tournament, with the ACC earning far fewer wins than their high seeds would indicate:

Team-By-Team

2012 is the year of the clear favorite. It will be virtually impossible for any of the experts who follow college basketball not to pick Kentucky to win the national championship. In terms of the measured statistics like margin-of-victory, in terms of the NBA ready talent on the floor, in terms of 34 games on TV over four months, no one has come close to the Wildcats this season.

But more importantly, there are no clear alternatives to the Wildcats. Again using Ken Pomeroy’s formula, here are the expected wins for each team in the tournament this year:

Rather than showing one clear alternative, the numbers show a great deal of balance between the top seeds.

The Right Side of the Bracket (East and Midwest)

The margin-of-victory crowd is going to love Ohio St., but they might be the only ones. Despite bringing back one of the top post players in the country in Jared Sullinger, one of the top defenders in Aaron Craft, one of the most prolific two-guards in William Buford, and watching Deshaun Thomas emerge into a versatile scoring threat, Ohio St.’s offense has struggled at times this year. Ohio St. has simply not been able to replace the outside shooting of Jon Diebler. And by sharing the Big Ten title and falling to Michigan St. in the conference tournament, very few people are going to be in love with this team. Add in a potential Sweet Sixteen match-up with a Florida St. team that has two wins against Duke and two wins against North Carolina, and Ohio St. will get far less love than these numbers would suggest.

Syracuse is the more traditional favorite, but they are the worst defensive rebounding team in the field, and their offense can look stagnant when they aren’t forcing turnovers. Even a second round match-up against Kansas St. could be a nightmare for Syracuse. Kansas St.’s team is built to crash the glass, and if Angel Rodriguez can simply throw up jump shots (instead of turning the ball over at his normally high rate), Kansas St. might have a chance for an upset.

North Carolina is the choice for people who like NBA talent, but the ACC was so weak this year, the Tar Heels didn’t get their normal share of big games. And when they did play quality teams, they would usually be close. UNC would win 54-51 against Virginia or 69-67 against NC State. Certainly everyone says North Carolina has a lot of NBA ready talent on paper, but unlike Kentucky, it never felt like North Carolina was unbeatable. Ever since the big win over Michigan St. on an aircraft carrier to start the season, they rarely gave off that aura of invincibility. And with John Henson’s injury this weekend, there are additional doubts about the Tar Heels.

If you are scared away by Kentucky’s inexperience, you might like Kansas. The Jayhawks don’t have any amazing freshmen this year because the majority of their recruiting class was declared academically ineligible to start the season. That has left Kansas with a veteran lineup and Bill Self has clearly got the most out of every player on the floor. The once ridiculed Tyshawn Taylor has emerged as a polished superstar and Thomas Robinson emerged into quite possibly the best player in the country.

But when you look at this group of four teams (Syracuse, Ohio St., North Carolina, and Kansas) any honest evaluation would say that it truly is a toss-up. I would unquestionably pick these four teams for the regional finals on that half of the bracket, but I have no idea which of these teams will play in the national title game.

The Left Side of the Bracket (West)

On the other side of the bracket, it is hard not to love what Michigan St. has accomplished this year. But the Spartans got the worst possible second round draw. Memphis has been absolutely demolishing teams lately, winning their last seven games by 18 points or more. Michigan St. may be able to exploit Memphis’ lack of size in the paint better than any team in the nation, but they shouldn’t have to face such a dominant team in the second round. (Oh, and if St. Louis upsets Memphis, they have elite margin-of-victory numbers too.) So even if Michigan St. was a reasonable pick for a deep run based on their performance in the toughest conference in the country this year, the bracket makes the Spartans a very risky bet.

Instead many people will be drawn to the sentimental favorite Missouri. Don’t pick against the Tigers because of their lack of depth. They’ve played smart and avoided foul trouble all year. Don’t pick against the Tigers because of their lack of size. They’ve played bigger teams all year, and they’ve actually struggled more against smaller quicker teams. In fact, I would argue that picking against Missouri is the most unpleasant thing you could possibly do this year. With only 7 scholarship players, this group has developed a type of offensive chemistry that will help you rediscover a love for basketball.

I think part of what made the Missouri offense so good this year was the change of pace. Normally when a player goes to the NBA they realize that the game is much faster. But eventually the game slows down. Well, Missouri is having a slow-down moment. While Missouri still plays at an exceedingly fast-pace relative to most teams, it is much slower than what they played under Mike Anderson. Somehow the game is very calm and controlled for them, while remaining at a fever pitch for opponents.

Ricardo Ratliffe is the perfect example. Teams know that he shoots nearly 70% in the paint so they cannot afford to let him get paint touches, but somehow the Missouri guards are always cutting and using screens and finding a way to get him the ball in scoring position. And Ratliffe probably has the quickest release of any post player in college today. He rarely holds the ball and lets the defense react. He catches the ball and gets it up on the backboard immediately

Having said all that, I’m not in love with Missouri’s draw. Let me get to that:

First, I really like Florida over Virginia. A number of the experts say that Virginia likes to play a pack-line defense and force teams to shoot over the top. Well, Florida is not afraid to shoot over the top. But I actually think that is a little over-rated. Virginia has played the pack-line defense, but still been quick enough to get out on shooters. What concerns me more than anything is how poorly Virginia has played since Assane Sene has gone down. The defense just hasn’t been the same without the 7 footer in the middle, and he is not going to be back for the tournament.

And if Florida advances to face Missouri, that’s a dream match-up on paper. While Missouri has succeeded by playing four guards around Ricardo Ratliffe, that will allow Florida to play four guards around Patric Young. And while Kentucky has almost single-handedly convinced the country that Florida isn’t very good, realistically Florida is almost the mirror-image of Missouri. Missouri might be the favorite, but that game would be very close to a toss-up.

And if Missouri faces Marquette in the Sweet Sixteen, Marquette is another team that has the quickness to stay with Missouri. Plus Buzz Williams clearly takes his scouting to another level in the NCAA tournament. Facing his team after a four day break would be a nightmare.

The Left Side of the Bracket (South)

Duke drew the short straw getting placed in the same region as Kentucky. And the Blue Devils were also clearly the least dominant of the 1 and 2 seeds during the regular season. Give Mike Krzyzewski credit for putting together the right non-conference schedule that got Duke the quality wins they need to be a 2-seed, but even the usually Duke-loving Dick Vitale has said that this is not a vintage Duke team. When Vitale says the Blue Devils might lose in the second round of the tournament, you know they have flaws. Now is probably a good time for me to show another Expected Win chart:

Baylor will be the clear pick to upset Duke for some people based on the large amount of NBA talent on their roster. But as an NBA-centered team, they remind me a lot of recent Texas teams under Rick Barnes. Somehow showing off their game for NBA scouts is more important than winning. Baylor proved some skeptics wrong by beating Kansas in the Big 12 tournament, but if Missouri will make you love college basketball, cheering for Baylor will absolutely drive you nuts. You almost have to beg for Perry Jones III to get a post touch, and while Brady Heslip is a great sharp-shooter, he doesn’t seem to have any feel for when to take threes and when to work the offense.

Dark Horses

- I’ve already written at length about how Wisconsin’s numbers are inflated based on crushing a bunch of small teams early in the season. But I do believe the Badgers are dangerous. My main concern with picking them is that at their slow pace, they open up the door to losing any game. Montana is clearly not in Wisconsin’s league, but in a 58 possession game, against a solid Montana defense, the game will probably be close.

- Wichita St. is the most dominant MVC team since Ken Pomeroy began tracking stats, and they have the kind of 7-foot center in Garrett Stutz that a lot of mid-major teams do not. That is why Seth Davis was professing his love for this team on CBS.

- Vanderbilt absolutely has the talent at every position to beat any team in the country. And they should long savor their win over Kentucky in the SEC final. But the main complaint is that the Commodores have failed to play well against weaker teams. With basically the same lineup they’ve lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament in previous years, and they had many games this season where they struggled with weaker opponents. Sure, I’ll believe you if you say they can beat Syracuse. But can they even get to that game?

- Finally, Florida St. is the team that a lot of people are going to be picking based on the ACC tournament title. But again, they have a potential nightmare match-up if they face Cincinnati. The Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country at forcing steals and Florida St.’s biggest weakness is holding on to the ball. Sure, they might be able to beat Ohio St. But can they even get to that game?

Here are more expected wins in the round of 64 and beyond:

- In case it wasn’t clear how terrible the draw is for Memphis and St. Louis. Memphis has the 9th best Pomeroy ranking, but is 22nd in expected wins. St. Louis had the 15th best Pomeroy ranking, but is 39th in expected wins.

- Southern Miss has some of the worst margin-of-victory stats in the field. Don’t pick them to upset Kansas St.

And here is the last of the list:

Parting Thoughts

- Seth Davis said it well at the end of the selection special, the NCAA committee sent a message that non-conference strength-of-schedule matters. That’s why Iona got in ahead of Drexel. And that’s why Missouri was not a #1 seed. A lot of people will argue with that message. What does non-conference strength-of-schedule have to do with evaluating the quality of a team? Isn’t the goal to pick the best teams? But I’ve been watching this show for 20 years, and the committee has always had this emphasis. They want to incentivize teams to play big games early in the season, and whether it is an explicit criteria or not, it is a criteria.

- I still can’t believe Kevin Harlan weaved in a comment about Peyton Manning during the Arizona vs Colorado Pac-12 final. (Yes, Manning probably won’t be choosing between Denver and Arizona based on the outcome of that game.)

- Finally, only Bob Knight could manage to eat an ice cream cone while calling a college basketball game.

The older I get, the more I see that one of the things I love most about sports is the variety of it, the diversity of it and the CHARACTERS. Men’s tennis is at its best in many years because, for the first time in a long time, the top three or four players all have wildly different styles. The Tim Tebow story was fun on so many levels, but one of those levels was that he was just SO DIFFERENT in how he played — I’d say we are entering a great time for quarterbacks, because Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning and Drew Brees and Michael Vick and Cam Newton and Tebow and others are not really alike at all.

-- Joe Posnanski

As a basketball fan, I’ve never understood the division that exists between fans of the NBA and the NCAA. While the NBA has the best basketball players in the world, March Madness is compelling in its own right and as entertaining as anything that happens on the professional level.

In the NBA, the owners of the 30 franchises consider turning a profit and getting an equal shot at the top players a right, regardless of how well (or how poorly) they run their organization and the respective size of their fan-bases. Since every losing team is a few ping pong balls from the rights to a LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Dwight Howard, personnel determines scheme in the NBA.

In contrast, the vast majority of the 344 Division I programs in college basketball have little chance of ever receiving a commitment from a McDonald’s All-American. But instead of petulantly trying to sabotage the sport in a misguided effort to legislate fairness, schools try many creative ways of leveraging the talents of the players they can recruit. As a result, scheme determines personnel in the NCAA.

At Syracuse, Jim Boeheim has made a Hall of Fame career out of running a contrarian scheme, in his case an aggressive 2-3 zone. The Orange traditionally have rosters full of “1.5’s”, 6’3+ combo guards lacking the quickness to defend elite PG’s and the size to defend SG’s, and “3.5’s”, 6’8+ combo forwards lacking the quickness to defend elite SF’s and the size to defend PF’s. However, because Syracuse never plays man defense, the athletic deficiencies of their players are minimized.

So while nearly every NBA team runs a fairly similar system of isolations, pick-and-rolls and man defense, an incredibly diverse array of styles can be found in the college game. On one end of the spectrum, teams like Missouri play four guards and pressure the ball 94 feet for 48 minutes, on the other, teams like Wisconsin run a deliberate motion offense, trying to minimize the number of possessions and shoot at the very end of the shot-clock.

In the NBA, the players are too good for the “40 Minutes of Hell” system (which Mike Anderson has brought to Missouri and Arkansas in the last few years) to be successful. Like Mike Leach’s bizarre pass-happy offense in college football, Anderson’s system, which he learned as a member of Nolan Richardson’s staff in Arkansas in the 1990’s, has philosophical holes that professional athletes can exploit. Nevertheless, that doesn’t make them any less entertaining on the collegiate level.

And with 68 teams set to compete in the NCAA Tournament, there are a lot more surprises in the college game. Even programs ranked in the top-15 like Murray State have barely been on national TV this season.

We have a pretty good idea of how teams like the Pacers and the 76ers match up with the top of the Eastern Conference but not whether an undersized Murray State squad can handle the size of an elite team from a Power Six conference. It’s an open question how Isaiah Canaan’s speed and athleticism translates outside of the Ohio Valley Conference. Non-conference play in college basketball generally ends in late December, so it’s almost impossible to gauge how younger teams like Texas, Washington and Tennessee who have found their groove in the last two months will fare in March.

In the NBA, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Chicago, Miami and Oklahoma City aren’t three of the final four teams left in the playoffs. In the NCAA, as many as two dozen teams have a legitimate shot at making a run at the Final Four.

Of course, in terms of entertainment, none of this makes the NCAA necessarily better or worse than the NBA, just different. But, as Posnanski writes, there’s something to be said for the concept of “different” in the modern sports world. Basketball fans of all stripes should enjoy March Madness; the NBA will still be here in a few weeks.