Last week VCU joined the A10 which provided the perfect opportunity to present my “way-too-early” projections for the A10 and CUSA. But what should be the lead for a column on the MVC and WCC?

I thought about writing about how the Missouri Valley Conference keeps missing out. VCU stole Wichita St.’s thunder in the NCAA tournament and the A10 added Butler before the MVC even contemplated expansion. I thought about writing about how the West Coast Conference has been strictly boring this off-season. There have been zero coaching changes, and no team shuffling (Pacific won’t join until next year). And as great as he looked in his debut, BYU’s Matt Carlino is no Jimmer Fredette. Still nothing inspired me.

Then I ran into Luke Winn’s Tuesday column on conference realignment. The first thing that struck me is how the WCC is now a Top 10 conference. The eight teams in the WCC in 2010-2011 had a 10-year Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) of 0.5346. The conference added BYU with a 10-year PWP of 0.8266 and Pacific with a 10-year PWP of 0.5704. Combined the new 10 team 10-year PWP will be 0.5674 which would put the league behind the A10 but firmly in the Top 10 of college conferences. And the MVC was already in the top 10. If you care about college basketball, there is no question you should care about these two leagues.

For an explanation of the column headings, click here. Roster information is updated through May 14^th.

BYU returns a respectable 69% of its possessions from last year, but the Relative Value (RV) column shows that BYU’s returning roster is made up of the least efficient offensive players on the team. Goodbye Noah Hartsock. It was a nice run Charles Abouo. Some people will miss the memories from their Sweet Sixteen run in 2011, but what BYU will really miss is their offensive efficiency. So why does the model still pick BYU for 2^nd in the league? First, Dave Rose gets some lingering credit. Rose has now made the NCAA tournament six straight years and my model accounts for coaching ability.  And BYU also gave a lot of possessions to freshmen last year.

San Diego is my ultimate sleeper team. Fully 47% of the Toreros possessions last season went to freshmen and while that led to some growing pains for Bill Grier’s team, Johnny Dee and Christopher Anderson have the potential to be special players. Dee made 79 threes last season and Anderson got to the free throw line at an elite rate. Combine their perimeter play with the efficient play of Dennis Kramer inside and you have the building blocks for a surprise team. San Diego struggled on the full season last year posting a 13-18 record and posting miserable Margin-of-Victory numbers (MOV). But by the time the WCC season rolled around San Diego was already playing better basketball. The Toreros finished 7-9 in league play and the growth potential for this team remains significant.

Rex Walters seemed like he might be building something at San Francisco, but the team has seen a number of players transfer. Perris Blackwell, Avery Johnson, Khalil Murphy, Justin Raffington, Charles Standifer, and Michael Williams all departed putting the Dons squarely in rebuilding mode. Luckily UCLA transfer De’End Parker should be eligible due to a family medical hardship waiver.

How is Gregg Marshall still at Wichita St.? After taking Winthrop to three straight NCAA tournaments and earning the rare NCAA victory at the Big South school, all he did was turn Wichita St. into a top 10 margin-of-victory team. I am more than a little skeptical that Wichita St. can finish 12-6 in a year in which the team loses 5 key seniors. But Carl Hall and Demetric Williams are back, and the model gives Marshall a ton of credit for building teams. The last three years the Shockers have finished 12-6, 14-4, and 16-2 in the MVC, and that is the track record of an elite coach. But 7 footers like Garrett Stutz don’t grow on trees, and I’m nervous that his defensive presence will be impossible to replace.

The model is very pleased to see Barry Hinson check in at Southern Illinois. It might take some time to rebuild the Salukis, but the former Missouri St. coach has won in this league before and he will win again. It is hard to believe a Saluki team that once dominated the league hasn’t won 7 conference games since 2009. By focusing on defense, Hinson will have Southern Illinois more competitive in his first year.

Speaking of elite coaches, Ben Jacobson is only two years away from his Farokhmanesh moment, and he brings back every rotation player except Johnny Moran this off-season. Northern Iowa will clearly be a factor. But Doug McDermott is back and that is pretty much all you need to know to be excited about Creighton. The Blue Jays will be the favorite even if last year’s defense was a little suspect.

The older I get, the more I see that one of the things I love most about sports is the variety of it, the diversity of it and the CHARACTERS. Men’s tennis is at its best in many years because, for the first time in a long time, the top three or four players all have wildly different styles. The Tim Tebow story was fun on so many levels, but one of those levels was that he was just SO DIFFERENT in how he played — I’d say we are entering a great time for quarterbacks, because Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning and Drew Brees and Michael Vick and Cam Newton and Tebow and others are not really alike at all.

-- Joe Posnanski

As a basketball fan, I’ve never understood the division that exists between fans of the NBA and the NCAA. While the NBA has the best basketball players in the world, March Madness is compelling in its own right and as entertaining as anything that happens on the professional level.

In the NBA, the owners of the 30 franchises consider turning a profit and getting an equal shot at the top players a right, regardless of how well (or how poorly) they run their organization and the respective size of their fan-bases. Since every losing team is a few ping pong balls from the rights to a LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Dwight Howard, personnel determines scheme in the NBA.

In contrast, the vast majority of the 344 Division I programs in college basketball have little chance of ever receiving a commitment from a McDonald’s All-American. But instead of petulantly trying to sabotage the sport in a misguided effort to legislate fairness, schools try many creative ways of leveraging the talents of the players they can recruit. As a result, scheme determines personnel in the NCAA.

At Syracuse, Jim Boeheim has made a Hall of Fame career out of running a contrarian scheme, in his case an aggressive 2-3 zone. The Orange traditionally have rosters full of “1.5’s”, 6’3+ combo guards lacking the quickness to defend elite PG’s and the size to defend SG’s, and “3.5’s”, 6’8+ combo forwards lacking the quickness to defend elite SF’s and the size to defend PF’s. However, because Syracuse never plays man defense, the athletic deficiencies of their players are minimized.

So while nearly every NBA team runs a fairly similar system of isolations, pick-and-rolls and man defense, an incredibly diverse array of styles can be found in the college game. On one end of the spectrum, teams like Missouri play four guards and pressure the ball 94 feet for 48 minutes, on the other, teams like Wisconsin run a deliberate motion offense, trying to minimize the number of possessions and shoot at the very end of the shot-clock.

In the NBA, the players are too good for the “40 Minutes of Hell” system (which Mike Anderson has brought to Missouri and Arkansas in the last few years) to be successful. Like Mike Leach’s bizarre pass-happy offense in college football, Anderson’s system, which he learned as a member of Nolan Richardson’s staff in Arkansas in the 1990’s, has philosophical holes that professional athletes can exploit. Nevertheless, that doesn’t make them any less entertaining on the collegiate level.

And with 68 teams set to compete in the NCAA Tournament, there are a lot more surprises in the college game. Even programs ranked in the top-15 like Murray State have barely been on national TV this season.

We have a pretty good idea of how teams like the Pacers and the 76ers match up with the top of the Eastern Conference but not whether an undersized Murray State squad can handle the size of an elite team from a Power Six conference. It’s an open question how Isaiah Canaan’s speed and athleticism translates outside of the Ohio Valley Conference. Non-conference play in college basketball generally ends in late December, so it’s almost impossible to gauge how younger teams like Texas, Washington and Tennessee who have found their groove in the last two months will fare in March.

In the NBA, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Chicago, Miami and Oklahoma City aren’t three of the final four teams left in the playoffs. In the NCAA, as many as two dozen teams have a legitimate shot at making a run at the Final Four.

Of course, in terms of entertainment, none of this makes the NCAA necessarily better or worse than the NBA, just different. But, as Posnanski writes, there’s something to be said for the concept of “different” in the modern sports world. Basketball fans of all stripes should enjoy March Madness; the NBA will still be here in a few weeks.

Big Ten: Ohio St. beat Michigan St. to force a three-way tie for the Big Ten regular season title. (Michigan also shared the crown.) You get so used to watching games decided by three-pointers and driving guards, but in the final ten minutes this game was decided in the low-post. That should favor the Spartans. Besides Draymond Green, Michigan St. has three players in Derrick Nix, Branden Dawson and Adreian Payne with phenomenal offensive rebounding numbers, and the Spartans tend to overwhelm teams on the interior. And Derrick Nix was up to the challenge in this game with some brilliant post moves.

But the Buckeyes somehow matched the Spartans toughness in the paint. With Jared Sullinger in foul trouble, Evan Ravenel forced his way to the basket and refused to be intimidated. And at the end of the game, when no one else could keep Draymond Green out of the lane, Ravenel came back off the bench and forced Green into a fade-away jumper that essentially decided the game. William Buford is going to get a lot of credit for his hot-shooting and his game-winning jumper with 1 second left, but Ravenel’s defensive stop on Green was the play-of-the-game.

ACC: North Carolina beat Duke to win the outright ACC title, and in the process the Tar Heels became only the second team this season to hold Duke under one point per possession. (Ohio St. was the other.) With Duke’s defensive problems this year, they aren’t going to beat anyone if they shoot like they did in the first half on Saturday.

SEC: Did anyone expect Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt to force a three-way tie for second place in the SEC? Did anyone expect Tennessee to sneak back into the bubble discussion? I sure did not, and that is why I left them out of Thursday’s injury split column. But since Jarnell Stokes became eligible for the second semester, Tennessee has been playing like the 34th best team in the nation. Part of what fascinates me about Stokes' splits is that in his debut he was a great offensive weapon but seemed confused defensively. But since that time he has struggled with free throw and turnovers, and basically earned his keep as a defensive stopper. Stokes block rate and steal rate are now tops on Tennessee among regular rotation players, and as the overall data shows, Tennessee has grown into a dominant defensive team with Stokes in the lineup:

(Does not include game against Chaminade.)

Big East: Marquette beat Georgetown to claim the 2-seed in the Big East tournament. The Golden Eagles had a free throw rate of 90.0 in the win, meaning they earned 9 FTA for every 10 FGA in the game. That may seem exceptionally high (and it was a season high for Marquette), but it wasn’t the best in the nation this year. Gonzaga had a free throw rate of 107.3 vs BYU on February 23rd.

Big 12: Iowa St. beat Baylor to force a tie for third place and win the 3-seed in the Big 12 tournament. Despite using a lineup that spreads the floor (four perimeter players around Royce White), and despite Baylor’s highly ranked post prospects, Iowa St. won the offensive rebounding battle. It often seems like Pierre Jackson is the only player on Baylor with any toughness and he did not go down without a fight, scoring 35 points for the Bears. But Jackson couldn’t win the game by himself, and Baylor’s late season swoon continues.

Punching Tickets

Matt Norlander of CBS Sports was kind enough to have me on his podcast on Friday. One thing we discussed was how Championship Week gives many players their one moment in the sun. Win or lose, Illinois St.’s Tyler Brown made a driving lay-up to help send the MVC championship into OT and a three pointer just before half-time on national TV. And no one can ever take that game-tape away from him.

But let’s face it, these non-BCS conference finals are so much better when there is a potential bid-thief involved. NC-Asheville beating VMI was nice for those schools. And Belmont coming back to beat Florida-Gulf Coast made the NCAA field a little tougher. But when an Illinois St. win shrinks the bubble by one slot, and Creighton needs 33 points from Doug McDermott to beat Illinois St. in OT, that is a special game. And Murray St.’s comeback from seven points down to avenge their only loss of the season was equally intriguing. Those two games are just a taste of what is to come:

Week Ahead

Monday

- Drexel plays VCU in the CAA tournament final. Drexel was my preseason pick to win the CAA and they ultimately won the regular season title. Everyone knows VCU from their incredible Final Four run last year. You will hear people say ad naseum how the loser of this game deserves an NCAA bid, but with the weakness of the CAA, only a win ensures anything.

- Gonzaga plays St. Mary’s in the WCC tournament final in a game that is much less fascinating. Both teams are in the NCAA field no matter what, so this game is just about NCAA seeding.

- Also, Davidson faces Western Carolina in the Southern Conference title game, and Fairfield plays Loyola (Md) in the MAAC title game. This weekend Fairfield knocked off MAAC regular season champion Iona which means we will have to look for the incredible passing of Scott Machado in the NIT. I saw Fairfield down in Orlando and Ryan Olander is a legit big-man who can guard BCS-level teams in the NCAA tournament. His shot-blocking is one of the reasons Fairfield has one of the top defensive teams in the country. (If the name sounds familiar, Ryan’s brother Tyler plays for UConn.) Fairfield also has Boston College transfer Rakim Sanders, so for a four-seed in a mid-major league, this is a very intriguing team. And by beating Iona in the MAAC tournament, they earned my respect.

Tuesday

Big East Tournament Printable Bracket, March 6-10

The Big East tournament begins with two clear bubble teams in action. Connecticut and Seton Hall both finished with losing records in the Big East, and with Seton Hall ending the season with losses to Rutgers and DePaul, the Pirates desperately need to get things back on track at Madison Square Garden. Amazingly the tournament kicks off with Connecticut vs DePaul for the second year in a row. Last year UConn was in the exact same spot and a win over DePaul kick-started an 11 game winning streak for the Huskies.

A10 Tournament Printable Bracket, March 6, 9-11

Temple, St. Louis and Xavier are getting all the attention, but I get the feeling we are going to see a surprise team emerge in the A10. And it might even happen as an at-large. Right now 8 of the 14 schools in the league count as Top 100 wins and that means there are plenty of teams with decent resumes, and more quality wins to be had in the tournament. As an example, Dayton has 3 Top 50 wins and 5 more wins against 51-100, and while their 9-7 conference record doesn’t feel like an NCAA tournament team, with a run to the A-10 final, an at-large bid would suddenly become very plausible. UMass, St. Joe’s, La Salle, and Dayton all get started Tuesday night, and all are intriguing dark horse candidates.

- Penn plays at Princeton. If the Quakers win they will force a one-game playoff with Harvard. If the Quakers lose, Harvard wins the Ivy League’s auto-bid.

- Detroit plays Valparaiso for the Horizon league title. Surprisingly, Butler is not playing in this game and the two-time national runner-up will not be in the NCAA tournament this season. Detroit was my preseason pick to win the Horizon league but Valparaiso won the regular season title.

- The Summit league and Sun Belt will also crown tournament champions.

Wednesday

- The Big East tournament continues. West Virginia should be in the NCAA tournament (especially when you look at their non-conference resume), but if it comes down to a comparison with UConn, the last thing the Mountaineers want is a head-to-head loss to end the year. South Florida will also be in action in the evening session. South Florida’s Big East record is inflated because they played Pitt, Villanova, and Providence twice and none of the teams with winning records twice, but 12-6 in a major conference is still impressive. I’ve argued that you have to discount USF’s non-conference record due to the absence of multiple starters, and I think USF and Washington (out of the Pac-12) have very similar resumes when you put them side-by-side.

- The Big 12, Pac-12, and CUSA tournament also get started. Even though there are no real bubble implications on the opening day for these leagues, that just means that every team is fighting for its NCAA tournament life. Seeing UCLA play a one-and-done, win-or-go-home game for the NCAA tournament is always intriguing.

Big 12 Tournament Printable Bracket, March 7-10

Pac-12 Tournament, March 7-10

CUSA Tournament Printable Bracket, March 7-10

- The Big Sky, NEC, and Patriot Leagues all crown tournament champs.

Thursday

If you take time off work on Thursday and Friday during the NCAA tournament to watch basketball, I highly recommend you take off work this day. All the major conferences have 4 games going on, and it is impossible not to see some jaw-dropping results and buzzer beaters on this day. These conferences finally get started:

MWC Tournament Printable Bracket, March 8-10

Colorado St.’s RPI is inflated because they have only played four teams with an RPI over 200. They definitely have work to do starting Thursday afternoon.

ACC Tournament Printable Bracket, March 8-11

On Sunday, Virginia’s Darion Atkins blew a dunk with four seconds left in a tie-game, but Virginia held on to beat Maryland in OT. That was huge because it gave Virginia a bye in the ACC tournament and no team has ever won four games in four days in the ACC tourney. NC State and Miami (FL) open up on Thursday desperately needing wins if they want to make the NCAA field.

Big Ten Tournament Printable Bracket, March 8-11

Northwestern is the lone Big Ten bubble team, but the tournament broke in a favorable fashion for the Cats because they potentially face Michigan in the second round instead of Michigan St. or Ohio St. After losing in OT to the Wolverines in Evanston, Northwestern may need to get revenge to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. But first they have to beat Minnesota on Thursday.

SEC Tournament Printable Bracket

In the old divisional set-up 9-7 Alabama and 8-8 Mississippi St. would have earned byes and Florida and Vanderbilt would be playing on Day 1. But under the new standards, Mississippi St. plays a dangerous Georgia team and Alabama must open up against a South Carolina team that has nothing to play for and can play fast-and-loose.

- Texas vs Iowa St. in the Big 12 quarterfinal could be one of the best games of the weekend. The Longhorns desperately need another win over a quality team and Iowa St. has been playing incredible basketball lately. Baylor vs Kansas St. is equally good, if only to see if Baylor can get any momentum or if the early season undefeated streak is wasted.

- Washington, Cal and Arizona all lost this last weekend, so the Pac-12 quarterfinals are quite intriguing. None of these teams can afford to lose their opening game.

Friday

This might be the best night of basketball of the whole year. You won’t get nearly as many quality match-ups on any NCAA tournament day as you do on this day.

Saturday

This is usually what I call panic day. The ACC, Big Ten, SEC and A10 will almost certainly have an unexpected team in the semifinals, and if that team wins it all, the bubble shrinks by one slot.

- The Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, MWC, CUSA, MAC, WAC, SWAC, MEAC, Southland, American East and Big West all crown tournament champions.

Regarding the Big West, Long Beach St. has an impressive non-conference strength-of-schedule, but not a lot of quality wins in those games. They were rolling through the BW regular season, but suffered their first conference loss this last weekend. That may not seem like a big deal, but one of the best things Long Beach St. had going for them was the long winning streak, and now they better hope they do well in the Big West tournament.

Sunday

The ACC, SEC, A10, and Big Ten all crown tournament champions and the greatest hour in television, the NCAA selection show, arrives.