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Major Conference Tournaments Day 1 and 2

If you aren’t fired up for the conference tournaments, all you need to do is read Dana O’Neil and Conor Nevins piece on the history of the Big East tournament. Conference tournaments are basketball’s hidden jewel.

Tuesday Session 1

BE 13-seed South Florida vs 12-seed Seton Hall, MWC 9 Nevada vs 8 Wyoming

South Florida is playing in its Mellow Yellow shorts. They certainly aren’t worse than the Adidas Zubaz look.

One amusing note in the first half. Seton Hall reverses the ball to Kyle Smyth who hits a wide-open three. How wide open was Smyth? All nine of the other players were on the right side of the key, while he was the only player on the left side of the key. It is pretty hard to fit nine players in that little space, but Smyth was literally the only player in the frame.

You can tell these teams are struggling offensively because the announcers are not hiding their feelings Mike Patrick, “The best thing you can say about the first half – it was close.”

Len Elmore trying to sell this as a compelling match-up, “Most teams don’t want to play defense for 35 seconds.”

Patrick, “How do you go 8 and a half minutes without scoring and still lead by 5?”

Finally, late in the game, when Seton Hall and USF were shooting 22% and 21% respectively from three point range and kept jacking up bad shots, Elmore reached the breaking point. “Why are we settling for threes fellas?”

I hate the graphic that says USF has so many points off turnovers. They don’t have nearly that many transition points. If you get a turnover, and then need 30 seconds of half-court offense to score, those aren’t points off turnovers.

The announcers point out that the fewest combined points scored in a Big East Tournament game is 87. With 5 minutes left in the game these teams have scored a combined 59 points. USF leads 32-27. Does anyone else miss Keno Davis?

Meanwhile, I would love to tell you what was happening in the MWC first round game, but it lacks TV coverage. I’ll steal a factoid that Doug Gottlieb shared with us on day 2. Last year’s the women’s Final Four in Denver created a floor with mountain’s etched in the gridwork. The Mountain West Conference loved the floor so much they bought it and shipped it to Vegas for their conference tournament.

Back to Madison Square Garden: With 2 minutes left, USF gets trapped in the backcourt and is not going to be able to beat the 10 second clock and avoid a back-court violation. But head coach Stan Heath wisely calls time out. The announcers rightfully complain that you shouldn’t get a new 10 second clock when you call a timeout. One possession later, Seton Hall again traps USF in the backcourt, and again a timeout bails the Bulls out.

Finally, Seton Hall cuts the lead to two points with 35 seconds left, applies additional pressure, and forces the turnover. USF steps out of bounds and Seton Hall has a chance for the tie or win. Fuquan Edwin drives for a lay-up and ties the game at 37. USF then gets three looks at a game-winning shot in the final seconds, but since this is South Florida, none of those shots fall.

Tied at 37-37, the 74 points in regulation would be the fewest ever in a Big East tournament game, but thankfully for these teams, they get 5 additional minutes of action. Seton Hall eventually pulls ahead, and Fuquan Edwin’s last two free throws ensure that this will not be the lowest scoring Big East tournament game of all time. The Pirates advance 46-42.

Meanwhile, in the untelevised game, Wyoming advances.

Tuesday Session 2

BE 11 Rutgers vs 14 DePaul

Sean McDonough, “We’ll be hard-pressed to match the excitement of the first game you saw tonight.” Amazingly Jay Bilas and Bill Raftery manage to keep a straight face.

And yet McDonough may be right. While the game has its moments, including dueling threes to end the first half, that momentarily give DePaul the lead before Rutgers takes it right back, DePaul’s defense just isn’t stout enough to hold up for 40 minutes.

Rutgers shoots 61% in the first half and leads by only 1. Normally, this is a bad sign. Teams rarely shoot that well all game. But this is not fool’s gold. Since the Scarlet Knights are getting so many easy paint looks, they shoot 61% in the second half too.

Here is a random stat for you: When DePaul has at least 1 regular season conference victory, they are winless in the Big East tournament. (DePaul’s only Big East tournament win came the year they didn’t win any conference games during the regular season.)

Before the end of the game Rutger’s Wally Judge makes it to 9 for 9 from the floor which ties a Big East tournament record for most made baskets in a game without a miss.

Wednesday Session 1

BE 8 Providence vs 9 Cincinnati

Does anything beat afternoon basketball?

Early in the game Mike Patrick noted Cincinnati’s offensive swoon in February. “Cincinnati’s uniforms are camouflaged, but its Cincinnati’s offense that has been wearing camouflage lately.”

There is no question Cincinnati has been playing worse lately, but I am again going to question the wisdom of the shooting split they show. Cincinnati shot 42% from the field in the first 22 games of the season and 35% in the last 9 games. Yes, but that’s true for 95% of the major conference teams. The early season includes some cupcakes that inflate everyone’s shooting percentages. Please only show the split for Big East games. It might only be 39% vs 35%, but it would be more informative.

Cincinnati takes a 26-8 lead before Providence storms back to make it 31-27. This is the story of both team’s seasons. Cincinnati was dominate early and struggled late, and Providence surged late, but Cincinnati is still the better team. And down the stretch the Bearcats put it away.

Wednesday Session 2

BE 5 Syracuse vs 12 Seton Hall, MWC 3 UNLV vs 6 Air Force, P12 9 Arizona St. vs 8 Stanford

Incredible shooting to start the Syracuse vs Seton Hall game. Seton Hall starts out 6 of 8 from three point range and Syracuse starts out 5 of 7 from three point range.

At one point they pan to the stands and show all sorts of Syracuse alumni. They show a very sharply dressed Pearl Washington, John Wallace, and Derrick Coleman. Then they show Harvey Grant. Hey wait, he’s not a Syracuse alum. He played for Oklahoma and Clemson. But his son Jerami Grant is playing in the game, so I guess we will let that slide.

Out to Vegas: Air Force vs UNLV is a very intriguing game on paper. Despite a number of losses, Air Force has 4 Top 50 wins and might be able to make it into the bubble conversation with a MWC tournament run. 2 minutes into the game, the MWC’s leading scorer, Air Force guard Michael Lyons injures his knee. This game just got a lot less interesting.

Back to MSG: Jokes about players impaling themselves on the hologram Big East graphic are trending on Twitter.

Despite a tie score at half-time, Syracuse starts to pull away in the second half. I have to hand it to Seton Hall graduate student (and Iona transfer) Kyle Smyth though – he is fighting like crazy. Not only did Smyth hit three 3’s to open the game, he draws a tough charge on CJ Fair in the paint. You can tell Smyth doesn’t want his career to end.

But you can also tell Syracuse is gaining confidence. The zone defense is getting better. What people don’t understand is that zone defense actually takes more energy than man-to-man defense if you want to play it well. And with Syracuse lacking confidence in recent games, it has been hurting their energy level. But the offensive outburst today seems to be making the Orange’s defense better. Syracuse eventually puts the game away.

Back in Vegas, the game is a laugher, but Doug Gottlieb and Steve Lappas make up for it with fantastic commentary. They spend much of the game dissecting Anthony Bennett’s NBA chances. Everyone agrees he is a fabulous athlete, and his lateral quickness, leaping ability, strength, and shooting touch at 6’7” should make him a solid NBA player. But he might not be a lottery pick because of his size. He needs to play a power forward spot in the pros, and 6’7” might not be tall enough.

Lappas asks whether Bennett spends too much time on the perimeter. I disagree. He’s shooting 37% on his threes and attempts only 2.6 perimeter shots per game. This isn’t a case of Baylor’s elite post players falling in love with jump shots.

Gottlieb questions his motor. Bennett has to be pulled from the game because he is out of breath. Gottlieb says some teams wonder if Bennett might have an asthma issue.

Lappas and Gottlieb also agree that Bennett is far too erratic. That might be true, but for such a young player, NBA teams will be drafting him based on potential, not production. And his production is still pretty darn good.

At some point Air Force’s Taylor Broekhuis gets hurt too. A graphic shows that Lyons and Broekhuis are out of the game. Gottlieb, “So Mrs. Lincoln, other than that, how did you like the play?”

I’d love to tell you what is happening in the Stanford vs Arizona St. game since both those teams are good enough to make a Pac-12 tournament run, and need to make a Pac-12 tournament run to have any NCAA tournament hope. But basically every cable company on the East Coast doesn’t carry the Pac-12 Network yet. Arizona St. wins in OT. Grr, that looks fun.

UNLV and Air Force isn’t nearly that close. At least we still have Lappas and Gottlieb. The announcers are talking about Air Force’s win over New Mexico last Saturday. Lappas, “Both teams made 15 threes in that game. Have you ever seen a game where a team made 15 threes and lost?” Gottlieb mentions the Norfolk St. vs Missouri game from the NCAA tournament last year. Hey great memory Doug, but I just looked it up. Missouri only made 13 threes in that loss.

Wednesday Session 3

MWC 7 Fresno St. vs 2 Colorado St., P12 12 Oregon St. vs 5 Colorado

CBS Sports Network has a great video intro for these MWC Tournament games using the song “Hall of Fame” by the Script. You cannot argue with the production values.

35 seconds into the game we see 5 players diving full out for the ball. This is college basketball.

The highlight may have come late in the second half when Fresno St.’s Kevin Foster fouled out. Foster was called for a charge after running into 3 Colorado St. defenders. But he only knocked 2 of the 3 of them over. Lappas, “He got his money’s worth. Wow, how can he be complaining about that call, he ran over 3 guys?” Gottlieb, “He only knocked 2 of them over, it’s a spare.”

Gottlieb also nailed the punchline of this game. “People are going to look at the box score and see that Colorado St. struggled against Fresno St. and think that they played poorly. But Dorian Green sat out with an ankle injury, Colton Iverson and Greg Smith had foul trouble, and this was actually a very gritty win.”

Meanwhile, across town Colorado’s Andre Roberson scored 12 points and grabbed 7 rebounds. Roberson had missed the previous two games due to an illness but he was back in form in the win against Oregon St.

Wednesday Session 4

BE 7 Villanova vs 10 St. John’s, Big 12 8 West Virginia vs 9 Texas Tech, SEC 12 South Carolina vs 13 Mississippi St.

I am now watching three games at once on my computer using Watch ESPN.

Texas Tech somehow takes an early 14 point lead on West Virginia. Meanwhile Mississippi St. takes the lead on South Carolina. Since Texas Tech and Mississippi St. are avert-your-eyes horrible teams, I’m wondering whether Frank Martin or Bob Huggins has a bigger scowl on his face.

Back to MSG: You may be asking how St. John’s Chris Obekpa can score so few points. He is one of the top shot-blockers and you would think his athleticism would translate into a few more scoring opportunities. But with 7 minutes left in the first half Obekpa gets an open dunk under the basket and completely blows it. To say his offensive game is not polished is the understatement of the century.

St. John’s uses a lot of full court pressure, but Villanova mostly handles it, and eventually Villanova pulls away. I think Villanova was in the NCAA tournament even with a loss, but they are in for sure now.

Late in the game Jay Bilas mentions that St. John’s assistant Gene Keady still doesn’t know who he is. Keady referred to him as Bye-Las. I feel very bad for Gene Keady these days. His stint on the Big Ten Network was horrible, and he always looks old to me on Lavin’s bench. His comb-over is long gone now and seeing him just makes me sad.

West Virginia takes a late 2 point lead on Texas Tech and the announcer makes the most depressing pronouncement you can: “Texas Tech has played about as well as they can.” Uggh, if you play as well as you can and you are still losing to a team with a losing conference record, that’s not good.

But apparently Texas Tech can play a little better. They take a 1 point lead and have the ball with 45 seconds left. Unfortunately, not only do they miss a shot that would extend the lead, they foul on the rebound attempt. West Virginia’s Deniz Kilicli pretends that Aaric Murray was the one who was fouled, but the refs are having none of it. I’m not feeling very confident in Kilicli’s free throw shooting after that move.  And logically he only makes one of his two free throws.

Tie game, Texas Tech has the ball with a chance to win. And much like USF last night, they shoot early enough that they get three looks for the win in regulation. Unlike USF, the third shot, a put-back lay-up goes in with 0.4 seconds on the clock. Texas Tech wins!

Elsewhere, after cutting the lead to 4 points with 4 minutes left, South Carolina bows out with a whimper in their 12/13 game. Losing to Mississippi St. is about as embarrassing as it gets at this point considering that Mississippi St. only has 6 healthy scholarship players.

Wednesday Session 5

Pac12 7 USC vs 10 Utah, MWC 1 New Mexico vs 8 Wyoming, B12 7 Texas vs 10 TCU, BE 6 Notre Dame vs 11 Rutgers, SEC 11 Texas A&M vs 14 Auburn

Hmm, after 11 hours of action, nothing seems all that amusing anymore. Doug Gottlieb and Steve Lappas are arguing over who should be the MWC player of the year for the 3rd time today. For the second straight day, Sean McDonough tells the story about how Rutgers coach Mike Rice is a nicer person since his University-imposed suspension. And during the Texas game, they are debating whether the Longhorn’s loss to Chaminade in the Maui invitational should count for NIT consideration. The last two days haven’t exactly featured the best teams, but up until now, I’ve been able to ignore that. This commentary just drives it home.

It hurts that the only close game (USC vs Utah) isn’t on TV. I momentarily perk up when New Mexico goes 12 minutes without scoring a field goal, but the Lobos defense is so good, they still lead by 5. What is the record for shot-clock violations in one game? It feels like Wyoming is looking for that record.

Utah, New Mexico, Texas, Notre Dame, and Texas A&M prevail in uninspired fashion.

Wednesday Session 6

MWC 5 Boise St. vs 4 San Diego St., Pac-12 11 Washington St. vs 6 Washington

And the day ends with a pair of dramatic comebacks. Washington leads by 62-47 with 8 minutes left, but Washington St. somehow scores 15 straight points to tie it up. And then Washington (thanks to a Desmonds Simmons bucket) wins the game anyway.

Meanwhile, San Diego St. is playing fantastic defense and Boise St. looks completely out-of-sync. But then San Diego St. makes a series of lackadaisical unforced turnovers on offense, and suddenly Boise St. is getting some easy transition baskets. San Diego St. is up 13, but a 14-0 run gives Boise St. the lead. Eventually San Diego St. gets enough stops to win it. Boise St.’s Derrick Marks ends the day a dreadful 4 of 21 from the floor. I still say Boise St. is in the NCAA tournament field, but it will be close.

Time for some sleep. Thursday remains the most under-rated day of college basketball on the entire calendar. If you love high profile teams playing win-or-go-home basketball, 7 of the top 8 conferences are in action with 56 major conference teams playing 28 games. That is the most marquee games of any day the rest of the season. If you like speculation, virtually every at-large bubble team will be in action. Bottom line: Thursday is going to be great.

Revisiting Recruiting Classes

During the preseason I went on a podcast with some fine folks from Michigan and said something like this. “Michigan’s freshmen are likely to show flashes of brilliance. But based on where they are in the rankings, I would expect them to be very inconsistent.”

And hey, I’m pretty sure Glenn Robinson had a bad game against Indiana. That’s a sign of inconsistency, right? OK, maybe struggling for one game at the No. 1 team in the nation isn’t a sign of inconsistency. And all Nik Stauskas has done is score in double figures in 21 of the teams 23 games this year. Sure, he needed a few more shots in some of those games, but you can pretty much guarantee he is going to give you 10 points every time out. Meanwhile, Mitch McGary only seems to be getting better as the year goes on. And it hasn’t just been the three ranked recruits. The unranked recruits have been incredibly efficient too.

So I was wrong about Michigan’s freshmen. Without a doubt, I was wrong. But I still think that having Michigan in the preseason Top 10 was a bit of a mistake. This team has clearly exceeded all expectations. Teams with brilliant recruiting classes don’t typically get this type of production.

Let’s take a look back at the teams that were supposed to have the best recruiting classes this year. The next table lists the percentage of minutes freshmen have played for their teams, the percentage of possessions’ used, and the possession-weighted ORtg for these players.

I list the teams with the Top 13 recruiting classes according to CBS Sports.com. For the record, Michigan had the 12th best recruiting class. (Numbers through Tuesday’s games. These are raw ORtg numbers, but adjusting for defensive schedule strength makes a trivial difference as Michigan has played an equivalent or stronger schedule than most of the teams on the list.)

Freshmen Contributions

ORtg

PctPoss

PctMin

Michigan Freshmen

124.6

42%

50%

NC State Freshmen

111.1

30%

33%

UNLV Freshmen

108.5

37%

33%

UCLA Freshmen

108.1

53%

44%

Michigan St. Freshmen

107.8

24%

25%

Duke Freshmen*

107.6

23%

25%

Kentucky Freshmen

106.5

58%

53%

Indiana Freshmen

104.6

19%

20%

Arizona Freshmen

103.4

29%

33%

Baylor Freshmen

99.6

32%

29%

North Carolina Freshmen

96.5

30%

31%

Providence Freshmen

89.4

18%

21%

Texas Freshmen

87.0

53%

58%

*Technically, the table shows freshmen performance, not recruiting class performance. Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee were recruited last year, but red-shirted.

The first thing that should be obvious is that Michigan’s freshmen are far and away the most efficient. I believe there are a number of mitigating factors, and I’ll list those in a moment, but the numbers aren’t even close. Michigan’s freshmen have been unbelievable.

Michigan’s freshmen have also had to play a ton. Due to attrition, John Beilein hasn’t been in a position where he could bring his freshmen along slowly. As we’ve seen with Texas and Kentucky, usually when you have to play freshmen major minutes, there are some growing pains along the way.

Another thing to keep in mind is that Michigan’s freshmen have all been healthy and eligible.

Providence was the only team in the above table deemed to have a worse recruiting class than Michigan. Providence was #13. But the reason I included Providence was to emphasize that sometimes injuries and academic issues can derail a great recruiting class too.  (Suspensions also contributed to Indiana’s poor recruiting class performance.)

Now, there are some mitigating factors. First, Michigan’s freshmen have used relatively few possessions. Because Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. have shot so much, Michigan’s freshmen get to be more judicious in when they attack. But that isn’t always an advantage. Duke’s Amile Jefferson has played better now that he gets to touch the ball more. For young players, playing off the ball and rarely getting touches doesn’t always lead to great shot-selection.

Michigan’s freshmen also get a huge advantage because of the talent level of Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. Plenty of the other teams on this list returned talent too. Pierre Jackson and Brady Heslip were plenty good, Indiana’s returning offensive players were the best in the nation, and so forth. But Michigan’s freshmen stepped into a much more advantageous position than those recruits at Texas. But ultimately, you have to take some credit for what you do on the floor. I can list a lot of unranked freshmen who have gone to talented teams, played very controlled minutes, and still not performed as consistently as Michigan’s Caris Levert and Spike Albrecht.

I also think it is worth noting how these players have helped improve Trey Burke’s game. Now when Burke finds open players, they are finishing. Burke’s assist percentage has improved from 28.6% to 39.8%. And Burke is among the most improved players in the country.

The next table shows the most improved players in the Big Ten in terms of efficiency rating. (Table only includes rotation players, players with over 40% of a team’s minutes.)

In the Big Ten, the only players with bigger ORtg improvements than Trey Burke are Shannon Scott and David Rivers. And both of those players played trivial minutes last year while posting horrific ORtgs. Meanwhile, the player listed in fourth place on this list, Eric May is shooting substantially less than last year. May’s percentage of possessions used has decreased from 19 percent to 14 percent, which likely explains his improvement in efficiency. But Burke is actually shooting more than last year, and he has still improved his ORtg by an unusual amount. The next entry in this table is Victor Oladipo who also deserves all the credit he is getting this season for improving substantially. Given how much Oladipo has improved, to say Burke has improved more is rather unbelievable. 

Big Ten

Team

Change Ortg

Ortg 2013

Ortg 2012

Shannon Scott

Ohio St.

39.9

108.1

68.2

David Rivers

Nebraska

36.2

100

63.8

Trey Burke

Michigan

23.1

128.7

105.6

Eric May

Iowa

21.8

113.6

91.8

Victor Oladipo

Indiana

19.7

126.3

106.6

Andre Hollins

Minnesota

16.8

116

99.2

Nnanna Egwu

Illinois

15.6

98.4

82.8

Austin Hollins

Minnesota

14.8

124.8

110

Jared Berggren

Wisconsin

13.1

118.5

105.4

Christian Watford

Indiana

12.1

122.7

110.6

Jordan Hulls

Indiana

12

133

121

Joseph Bertrand

Illinois

11.8

117.4

105.6

Tim Hardaway

Michigan

10.5

113.6

103.1

Tracy Abrams

Illinois

10.1

98.7

88.6

Nick Colella

Penn St.

9.6

97.8

88.2

Since I happen to have them handy, here are the biggest improvements in the Pac-12. Andy Brown played trivial minutes last year, so his improvement is also less significant. Byron Wesley is shooting less, so that explains some of his improvement. Thus in the Pac-12, the only two players that are showing meaningfully similar improvements to Trey Burke are Nick Johnson and Carrick Felix.

Pac-12

Team

Change Ortg

Ortg 2013

Ortg 2012

Andy Brown

Stanford

29.2

105.7

76.5

Nick Johnson

Arizona

19.4

114.4

95

Byron Wesley

USC

18.5

99.2

80.7

Carrick Felix

Arizona St.

16.4

112.5

96.1

Kevin Parrom

Arizona

15.9

124.6

108.7

Aziz N`Diaye

Washington

12.5

108.4

95.9

Eric Moreland

Oregon St.

11.6

109.4

97.8

Cedric Martin

Utah

11.6

107.2

95.6

Dwight Powell

Stanford

11.6

105.6

94

Dexter Kernich-Drew

Washington St.

10.2

103.8

93.6

Roberto Nelson

Oregon St.

9.8

111.6

101.8

Chris Colvin

Arizona St.

9.3

91

81.7

Mike Ladd

Washington St.

9

105.9

96.9

Solomon Hill

Arizona

8.5

119

110.5

Tony Woods

Oregon

5.9

105.5

99.6

By the way, is there anything worse than getting better for a bad team? Mike Ladd and Dexter Kernich-Drew are playing better than last season. But because Washington St. is struggling in the standings, almost no one has noticed. 

Big Ten

Team

Change Ortg

Ortg 2013

Ortg 2012

Cody Zeller

Indiana

-1.2

125.7

126.9

Terone Johnson

Purdue

-1.6

97.2

98.8

Anthony Johnson

Purdue

-2.3

90.3

92.6

Roy Devyn Marble

Iowa

-2.5

105.4

107.9

Lenzelle Smith Jr.

Ohio St.

-2.5

110.4

112.9

Zach McCabe

Iowa

-3.7

101

104.7

Alex Marcotullio

Northwestern

-4.3

108.5

112.8

Dave Sobolewski

Northwestern

-5

106.8

111.8

Deshaun Thomas

Ohio St.

-5.2

117.3

122.5

Aaron Craft

Ohio St.

-6

105.5

111.5

Branden Dawson

Michigan St.

-8.7

101.3

110

Ryan Evans

Wisconsin

-11.6

90.2

101.8

Dylan Talley

Nebraska

-12.7

89.2

101.9

D.J. Byrd

Purdue

-13.7

110

123.7

Brandon Ubel

Nebraska

-16.2

103.4

119.6

Ross Travis

Penn St.

-17.6

80.3

97.9

On the flip side, we have players who have lost efficiency this year. Don’t blame Brandon Ubel and Dylan Talley too much. Given all the player losses at Nebraska, they’ve had to shoot a lot more. But the key thing I want to emphasize is how Cody Zeller’s efficiency has not improved from last season. Zeller was a preseason player-of-the-year favorite because of how he performed last year. But unlike many of the other player-of-the-year candidates, Zeller has treaded water. It isn’t that Zeller isn’t good. But Zeller hasn’t taken the step forward that some of us imagined. And Zeller doesn’t have the excuse of shooting more. He basically uses the same number of possessions he used last year.

Big Ten

Team

Change Ortg

Ortg 2013

Ortg 2012

David Wear

UCLA

-7

103.6

110.6

Chasson Randle

Stanford

-7.5

101.7

109.2

Andre Roberson

Colorado

-7.6

100.9

108.5

Justin Cobbs

California

-8

105.4

113.4

Abdul Gaddy

Washington

-8.6

96

104.6

Travis Wear

UCLA

-9.5

107

116.5

Richard Solomon

California

-10.7

93

103.7

Angus Brandt

Oregon St.

-10.8

104.2

115

Aaron Bright

Stanford

-14.4

97.4

111.8

Devon Collier

Oregon St.

-14.9

107.2

122.1

E.J. Singler

Oregon

-15.3

102.4

117.7

Robert Thurman

California

-15.9

100.3

116.2

David Kravish

California

-16.2

102.6

118.8

Johnathan Loyd

Oregon

-17.3

78.6

95.9

D.J. Shelton

Washington St.

-20

85.8

105.8

I’m surprised the Pac-12 shows so many big declines as the Pac-12 did add quite a bit of talent this year. One issue is that Pac-12 defense are better, but it is surprising that some former stars are slipping. Abdul Gaddy and Chasson Randle at least have the excuse that they are shooting more. But that doesn’t explain every drop-off on this list. David Wear and Travis Wear are actually shooting less than last year, but the lower shot volume has not translated into a more efficient season.

Bottom line: Michigan deserves to be praised for performing like a Top 10 team this year. But the Wolverines have exceeded expectations to accomplish that. The freshmen have performed above and beyond all expectations. And Trey Burke has improved tremendously from last season. Michigan’s defense still isn’t quite Top 10 caliber. But for a group this young to have the #1 offense in the nation is truly an accomplishment.

Injury Splits, Part 2

Click Here for Part 1.

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth.

Northwestern

103.7

93.0

7

3

0.7542

Northwestern (without Drew Crawford)

105.9

96.2

5

6

0.7277

 

 

 

 

 

 

Providence (missing players)

103.1

90.7

8

4

0.7874

Providence (Full Strength)

111.2

98.7

2

6

0.7735

           

North Dakota St.

108.0

91.8

13

3

0.8405

North Dakota St. (without Taylor Braun)

97.7

90.7

1

2

0.6819

Northwestern has been able to compensate for Drew Crawford’s lost offense, but they have not been able to compensate for the athleticism he brought to the defense. He was one of the only players with the quickness and size to frustrate opposing wing players.

Providence has had a nightmare of a season. First Kris Dunn was injured. Then Vincent Council was out. Plus, Bryce Cotton has missed games occasionally. And yet with one or more of those players out at the start of the season, Ed Cooley got his players to buy in and play team basketball. They knew they had to play great defense to have a chance, and the players responded. But now that everyone is at full-strength, the defensive commitment just isn’t there. Pretty much from the moment that Kris Dunn debuted, Providence has stopped playing defense. And the team has gone 2-6 since then.

North Dakota St. was one of the true surprises of the early season. They were extremely dominant and looked like a real challenger to Nate Wolter’s South Dakota St. team for the Summit League title. But the injury to leading scorer Taylor Braun has completely derailed NDSU’s offense.

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth.

Georgetown

97.8

85.2

10

3

0.8055

Georgetown (without Greg Whittington)

110.0

83.4

4

1

0.9445

           

Memphis (without Geron Johnson)

102.4

97.9

2

1

0.6136

Memphis (without Tarik Black)

114.1

95.3

4

0

0.8637

Memphis (Full Strength)

102.1

86.2

10

2

0.8508

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Carolina

106.3

90.4

9

4

0.8401

North Carolina (without Leslie McDonald)

110.2

91.5

3

2

0.8709

This next group features three players whose absence was not a huge problem. Georgetown sat at 0-2 in the Big East and had just been blown out at home by Pittsburgh when they found out Greg Whittington was academically ineligible. Since then the Hoyas have gone 4-1 including an upset of Louisville over the weekend. Georgetown’s improvement without Greg Whittington is a little bit of a surprise, but likely has two causes. First, with Whittington academically ineligible, the Hoyas have stopped rolling out one-guard lineups. The offense has simply moved more crisply with two guards on the floor at once.  I appreciated John Thompson III’s creativity with four forwards on the floor, but there is a reason most teams don’t do that. Second, un-related to the suspension of Whittington, head coach John Thompson III has stopped trying to run the offense through center Michael Hopkins. Hopkins was the team’s least efficient offensive player, and Hopkins playing time has plummeted in recent games.

Memphis had its best offensive day of the season (against Tennessee) when Tarik Black was out, but I wouldn’t necessarily be convinced that the team is better off without him. That seems like a bit of a fluke.

North Carolina hasn’t really missed Leslie McDonald and I don’t think anyone is surprised. North Carolina has a plethora of two-guard/wing players. What the Tar Heels are missing is a second legitimate post-player to compliment James Michael McAdoo. PJ Hairston and Reggie Bullock were well-positioned to replace McDonald’s playing time.

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth.

UNLV (without Khem Birch)

108.1

87.0

7

1

0.9025

UNLV (Birch but no healthy Mike Moser)

109.9

91.2

5

1

0.8707

UNLV (Full Strength)

112.5

90.1

3

2

0.9075

           

Virginia

105.1

90.0

7

3

0.8298

Virginia (with Jontel Evans)

99.7

83.0

4

2

0.8675

Virginia (with Jontel Evans without Darion Atkins)

109.8

78.3

3

0

0.9696

           

Washington (without Andrew Andrews)

109.4

110.3

2

1

0.4788

Washington (without Scott Suggs)

103.9

100.3

2

1

0.5911

Washington (Full Strength)

109.3

95.3

8

6

0.8035

I took a little liberty and grouped the North Carolina game in the “Moser-injured” category because he clearly wasn’t 100%. The good news for UNLV fans is that they are a better team with Moser in the lineup. The bad news is that even with the team at full-strength, they have only been a borderline Top 25 team. UNLV has Top 10 talent, and Anthony Bennett might be the best freshmen in the country, but they haven’t quite been able to put it all together.

Virginia’s splits aren’t really about Evans so much as they are about a team that has improved throughout the season. The Cavaliers started out playing mediocre basketball, began to play better defense once they added a PG with the quickness of Evans, and even with Darion Atkins going down they have continued to improve. That last split probably isn’t sustainable, but Virginia is the rare team that can say they are playing much better now than in November.

Although you might not guess it from their 8-6 record, the Washington Huskies have been at their best at full-strength.

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth.

Miami (without Durand Scott)

96.8

100.1

2

1

0.4163

Miami (without Reggie Johnson)

104.8

85.2

6

2

0.8931

Miami (Full Strength)

119.0

78.2

7

0

0.9867

           

St. John's

101.3

91.1

9

3

0.7462

St. John's (with Jamal Branch)

99.2

92.7

4

4

0.6678

           

Creighton

118.7

93.5

7

1

0.9201

Creighton (without Josh Jones)

120.7

91.1

11

2

0.9471

           

Lehigh

110.8

99.6

8

4

0.7499

Lehigh (without CJ McCollum)

102.0

92.9

5

1

0.7230

Durand Scott missed Miami (FL)'s loss to Florida Gulf Coast early in the season. And Reggie Johnson just missed a string of games and hasn’t quite looked 100% since returning. Miami has only had their full-lineup for 7 games, but when you include a blow-out win against Duke in that sample of seven games, you look pretty good.

I’m not sure mid-season transfer Jamal Branch has been a negative influence on St. John’s. But he just so happened to miss St. John’s best win of the season, at Cincinnati, with an eye injury. And he was around for St. John’s embarrassing home loss to UNC Asheville.

Meanwhile, I feel for Creighton’s Josh Jones having to give up basketball due to a heart condition. But as crazy as it sounds, his 109 ORtg was actually a drag on Creighton’s fine offense. The Blue Jays are in the rare position of having an embarrassment of riches in their rotation right now.

After NCAA tournament hero CJ McCollum went down, I thought Lehigh would have to cede the Patriot league title to Bucknell. But by buckling down on defense, Lehigh won its first five games against D1 competition without McCollum, and shockingly picked up the road victory at Bucknell. They actually looked like they might be the Patriot league favorites after all. But a home loss against Lafayette emphasized what was already true. Without McCollum, Lehigh’s offense isn’t nearly as good. Perhaps by emphasizing their new defensive identity, they can still win the league. But it isn’t going to be nearly as easy without their star.

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth.

St. Louis

105.7

90.0

8

3

0.8382

St. Louis (with Kwamain Mitchell)

103.4

90.5

6

2

0.7968

           

Alabama

100.4

98.0

2

5

0.5608

Alabama (with Andrew Steele)

106.7

87.6

9

2

0.8833

           

Syracuse

113.1

81.0

15

1

0.9684

Syracuse (without James Southerland)

122.7

96.1

3

1

0.9240 

Kwamain Mitchell’s ORtg is only 88.9, and he is one of only two St. Louis players with a sub-100 ORtg. Given how the team played without him, I think it is worth asking whether he is hurting the St. Louis offense.

Andrew Steele can’t be as important as the numbers here show. But his absence corresponded to the team’s December swoon. And I’m certainly willing to believe that the senior guard is an important cog to the team’s offensive and defensive chemistry. I just know that given his limited role on the team, there are other factors at play here.

Finally, Syracuse was playing like the 2nd best team in the nation in the games before the Southerland academic suspension. Since then, the upset loss to Villanova has the Orange playing more like the 15th best team in the nation. Still, that loss to Villanova felt like one of the annual games where an opponent got hot from three. Syracuse usually loses at least one of those. I’m not sure we have an accurate feel for the Orange without Southerland yet.

Final Notes: The following injuries are not worth a split since they were so short, but they will likely show up on NCAA scouting reports at the end of the year.

-Mike Bruesewitz missed Wisconsin's loss to Marquette.

-Justin Jackson missed Cincinnati's loss to Notre Dame. Given Jackson’s general struggles this year, I'm not sure anyone can count that as meaningful, but I'm sure it will show up on the NCAA committees report from the Big East. 

-Brady Heslip missed Baylor's loss to Charleston. I watched this game and his absence really seemed to hurt the flow of the Baylor offense.

-Xavier Thames missed San Diego St.'s loss to Wyoming.

-Dwayne Davis missed Southern Miss's loss to Arizona with the flu. It didn’t seem that important at the time, but given how well Southern Miss is playing in CUSA this year, it could matter come selection Sunday.

-Roy Devyn Marble missed Iowa's 3 point loss to Michigan St.

-PJ Hairston missed North Carolina's loss to Indiana.

-Sam Grooms missed Oklahoma's loss to SF Austin.

-Cory Remekun missed St. Louis's loss to Santa Clara.

-Terone Johnson missed Purdue’s loss to Bucknell.

-Rotnei Clarke missed Butler’s loss to La Salle.

-Milton Jennings missed Clemson's loss to Purdue.

-Nate Wolters missed South Dakota St.'s loss to Minnesota.

-Akron was missing Demetrius Treadwell and Nick Harney in their season opening losses to Coastal Carolina and Oklahoma St. The latter came in OT so the NCAA may very well care that these players were missing.

-Stanford was missing Aaron Bright for the Missouri and Minnesota losses, but oddly the team has played worse basketball since he has returned. Perhaps his 23% three point shooting has something to do with that.

-Finally, I'm not going to say much about players who missed the opening game or opening three games (Shabazz Muhammad) because with the recent games weighting on Kenpom.com those games have already been deemphasized. But there remain a number of recent injuries to keep an eye on in February. Oregon's Dominic Artis, UCLA's Travis Wear, Notre Dame's Scott Martin, Boise St.'s Jeff Elorriaga, and Texas's Jonathan Holmes have only recently joined the inactive list.

Final Exam Time

Final exams are here in college basketball, making this the quiet period of the season. After the excitement of the Champions Classic, the Holiday Tournaments, and the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, college basketball must make it through a relatively boring stretch on the schedule.

Nerlens Noel, Isaiah Austin, And A Quick Look At How The Top 80 Recruits Have Fared

On Nerlens Noel, Isaiah Austin, Kyle Anderson and the rest of the freshman class as they play such prominent roles to begin the 12-13 NCAA season.

Where College Coaches Matter

Because of the large correlation between talent-on-hand and coaching, discrepancies usually only exist when a coaches ability doesn’t match up with who he has in the lineup. Here are some teams whose rankings would change meaningfully if coaching effects were ignored.

Initial Bracket Thoughts

A few preliminary thoughts on matchups and which teams will advance deep in the tournament.

The Many Facets & Unpredictability Of March Madness

While personnel determine scheme in the NBA, college basketball coaches recruit players that fit their schemes.

YABC Column For Feb. 27th (POY Races, Improbabilities & More)

As Draymond Green locked up the Big Ten POY award and Kansas battled Missouri for a likely No. 1 seed, Saturday afternoon encapsulated everything that is great about the NCAA regular season.

Understanding Breakout Players

Thomas Robinson, J'Covan Brown, Meyers Leonard, Jamaal Franklin and Trae Golden are amongst the Top-20 Breakout Players in college basketball.

Five Surprises From The Second Weekend In January

The theme heading into this weekend was that there were not many must-see games. But with college basketball, the sheer volume of games ensures there will always be a few surprises.

Colleges On NBA Rosters

Duke, Kentucky, UCLA, Texas, Kansas, North Carolina, UConn, Florida and Arizona each begin the 11-12 NBA season with 10 or more players on NBA rosters.

YABC Column, Dec. 19 (On Perry Jones, Miami, BYU, Illinois & More)

A hero moment for Perry Jones III, BYU doesn't slow down offense post-Jimmer, Reggie Johnson's return to the Miami lineup and much more.

YACB Column, Dec. 5th (On UNC/UK, Conference Ratings, Cincinnati & More)

Yet Another College Basketball Column checks in on whether we'll see a UK/UNC rematch in the title game, the surprise conferences and much more.

Printable Brackets And Early Season Tournament Odds

Don't wait until March to start printing out college basketball brackets. With the Preseason NIT, Maui Invitational, Puerto Rico Tipoff and other excellent tournaments, you can start the madness in November.

Why Transfers Matter, Plus Big 12 And MWC Notes

The value of transfers to BCS schools, plus why Baylor could have a top-10 team (if Bill Self was their coach instead of Scott Drew).

Yet Another College Basketball Column (Post-Selection Edition)

The field of 68 has been set and the four No. 1 seeds boringly look like good bets to reach the Final Four, but here are a few teams capable of overachieving.

Yet Another College Basketball Column (March 6th)

Printable conference tournament brackets, Nitty Gritty stats, Senior Day, and what UNC's win over Duke really means.

Which Colleges Have Produced The NBA's Best Rookies?

Predictably, the big-time programs in Chapel Hill, Storrs, Durham and D.C. have produced several excellent rookies.

 

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