While the NCAA Tournament has cachet all its own, one way of looking at the Tournament is through the lens of the NBA. While the lottery guys get plenty of buzz leading into the Tourney, I like to spend more time on the players on more middling teams for the first few days since it is less likely that their teams survive long enough to evaluate them further.

On that note, here is the day-by-day:

Thursday

Headline games:

Pittsburgh vs. Wichita State (1:40 PM Eastern)- This game makes the list primarily because of Steven Adams. The big man from New Zealand has not produced as much as many of us hoped during the season but has the chance to show his potential this weekend. The Shockers rebound well enough to challenge him and I am intrigued by Carl Hall.

Memphis vs. St. Mary’s (2:45 PM Eastern)- While Memphis has a slew of intriguing athletic question marks (Adonis Thomas, Joe Johnson and DJ Stephens are just three of them), St. Mary’s has Matthew Dellavedova. Matthew stands out as an unusual draft prospect because of his age (22) and subpar athleticism for his position but has the shooting stroke and basketball IQ to stick in the league longer than expected. We will learn a ton about everyone in this game. 

Other games to watch:

Syracuse vs. Montana (9:57 PM Eastern)- Michael Carter-Williams vs. Will Cherry. My bet is that one of them will massively help his draft stock in this game.

Oklahoma State vs. Oregon (4:40 PM Eastern)- Marcus Smart will have his hands full with future prospect Dominic Artis. We’ll see how Le’Bryan Nash handles the spotlight as well.

Michigan vs. South Dakota State (7:15 PM Eastern)- Senior sensation Nate Wolters gets the chance to show his value against a Michigan team full of potential NBA players (Trey Burke, Glenn Robinson III, and Tim Hardaway Jr among them).

UNLV vs. Cal (7:27 PM Eastern)- Anthony Bennett and Allen Crabbe will be the headliners but I am focused on how UNLV matches up on defense.

Friday

Headline game:

UCLA vs. Minnesota (9:57 PM Eastern)- After the injury to Jordan Adams, this could be our only chance to see lottery pick Shabazz Muhammad in the Tourney. Kyle Anderson, Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams are three other likely pros worth keeping an eye on.

Other games to watch:

Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss (12:40 PM Eastern)- Marshall Henderson. That is all.

North Carolina vs. Villanova (7:20 PM Eastern)- Despite deeply disappointing this season, UNC has plenty of NBA talent in the form of James Michael McAdoo, Reggie Bullock and PJ Hariston. Each of those guys needs to make an impression over the next few weeks in order to rehabilitate their stock.

Creighton vs. Cincinnati (2:45 PM Eastern)- One of the best potential tests for Doug McDermott makes this one particularly fascinating.

San Diego State vs. Oklahoma (9:20 PM Eastern)- Jamaal Franklin has been underappreciated by the national college hoops media but has a chance to make his own statement on the opening weekend. If the Aztecs can get past Oklahoma, a potentially star-making meeting with Georgetown looms.

In my fourth installment of “Freshman Prospects Before New Year's”, I explore Anthony Bennett, one of the nation’s most productive freshmen and someone who has really captured the national spotlight early on. Prior to joining UNLV’s squad, Bennett was a relatively late bloomer who rose to prominence at high school powerhouse Findlay Prep after growing up in Brampton, Ontario. Coming into this season, Bennett’s talents were overshadowed by bigger ‘name’ players, but his impact offensively has been unmatched by any freshman at this juncture of the season.   

So far this year, Anthony Bennett has dominated on the offensive end of the floor, where he is averaging 19.50 points per game, second only to Shabazz Muhammad in freshman scoring. Standing at a bulky 6’7 239 lbs, Bennett has worked hard to shed weight, while still retaining his strength advantage. As it currently stands, Bennett is one of the more versatile prospects at the collegiate level today. He scores his points in a variety of different ways, from facing up in the post to dialing in from beyond the arc. He is most effective vying for position in the post and then employing his faceup game to attack the basket. Bennett does a good job of utilizing his lower body strength to pin his man on the block. Once he receives the ball on the catch, Bennett typically faces up for an easy jumper in the paint, or attacks the rim with reckless abandon. He has a deceptively quick first step, and is explosive and powerful enough to get to the rim and finish over multiple defenders. Bennett has a flair for the spectacular and likes to make statement dunks to shift his team’s momentum.

In order to drive past his man, Bennett employs a believable shot fake that often draws the defender off his feet. He also boasts an improved handle, which he utilizes to get to the rim from anywhere on the court. On several possessions that I witnessed, he was able to bring the ball all the way up the floor and go coast to coast for an easy lay in through contact. Few players at his size possess that kind of versatility. With that said, I believe that he will only be able to attack the basket from the free throw line in at the next level. His handle is serviceable enough, though, that he will likely be able to translate his post faceup game to the NBA level.  

Due to his aggressive “slashing” mentality and his willingness to draw contact, Bennett is drawing fouls at a very high rate. In fact, his 7.2 fouls drawn per 40 minutes currently ranks 18th in the nation. Bennett must look to maintain this same level of intensity on the offensive end and avoid settling for jump shots, as he did against North Carolina the other night. With that said, Bennett is strong with the ball on his drives, and rarely turns it over. He ranks eighth in the Mountain West Conference in Turnover Percentage, despite having the ball on 26.4 percent of his team’s possessions. In this regard, Bennett understands his limitations and plays well beyond his years.

While he is effective attacking the rim following a post entry feed, Bennett’s back to the basket game is largely undeveloped. He has good pivoting footwork on his faceup moves, so he may be able to develop this facet of his post game down the road. He also has a low enough center of gravity to back his man close to the rim.   When he does opt to faceup and shoot over his opposition, Bennett displays good balance and a highly effective shooting form. He is capable from the mid range as well, and is not shy squaring and connecting on jumpers off the bounce. As a result of these abilities, he is currently converting 61.0 percent of his two point attempts. 

Bennett’s range extends to the college three point line, where he had been shooting the ball pretty well in early action, but has struggled as of late. Overall, he is hitting a mere 31.6 percent of his three point attempts, but he continues to shoot, even when contested. Despite those below average numbers, it is clear that he possesses the range to keep defenses honest at the next level. And, he has put considerable time into his jump shot, so I expect this to be a strength of his down the road, even if he is currently struggling. With this in mind, Bennett must improve his shot selection and not try to force the issue from three point range. In fact, against UNC, he limited himself by camping out beyond the arc and not out-working McAdoo and Hubert for position inside. 

Anthony Bennett also shows some promise in the pick and roll game. He uses his wide body to get in ideal position for picks and usually is able to free up his guards. Bennett then does a nice job of carving space on rim runs, and he is very quick exploding to the basket. Because of his versatility, Bennett will also be able to fade to the outside after setting screens and free himself for open mid range jumpers depending on how opposing defenses are situated. Further, Bennett has a great motor and is able to get out in transition and finish. 

In terms of his ability to collect rebounds, Bennett shows some promise on the glass. He possesses solid box out fundamentals, leveraging his lower body to prevent players from rebounding over the back of him.  Bennett also has a knack of anticipating where the ball is going to be once it hits the rim, and he is able to cover ground in a hurry to chase after rebounds and loose balls. Bennett has a very high activity level on both ends of the floor, and is willing to dive into the crowd to create extra possessions for his team. Currently, Bennett ranks seventh in the MWC in Defensive Rebounding Percentage and ninth in Offensive Rebounding Percentage. These numbers do not fully capture Bennett’s assertiveness and impact on the glass though. This is because he has a tendency to bite on fakes at the defensive end, which continuously puts him at a disadvantage when trying to secure rebounds. 

With regard to his overall impact defensively, Bennett’s post defense leaves a lot to be desired. Bennett constantly opts to front the post, with mixed results. At times, he is able to corral the ball when the post entry pass is telegraphed. However, when the post entry feed is less obvious and the ball is in the hands of a skilled passer, this playmaker is typically able to lob the ball right over the top of Bennett for an easy lay in. I suspect that such plays will consistently occur at the next level as well, unless Bennett is willing and able to change his approach to post defense. Instead of constantly fronting the opposition, Bennett should use his wide base to ‘chest’ his man off the block. When he has played back on post players so far this season, Bennett has given up deep post position, which makes it difficult to recover defensively.  With this said, Bennett is very active defensively, and does a nice job of contesting without fouling when he decides to play positional defense. Bennett has good lateral quickness for a four and is able to stay in front of his man in the post. 

With regard to his physical capabilities on this end, despite his below average height for an NBA power forward at 6’7, Bennett compensates with a 7’1 wingspan. He currently has the fourth best Blocks Percentage in the Mountain West Conference, and this is a testament to his length and athleticism. While he is capable of blocking shots, Bennett is not especially effective as a help defender, sometimes even standing in the way of his teammate and watching the opposition go to the hoop for an easy lay in. Bennett must improve his awareness as a help defender and look to step in and take more charges. With that said, he is able to step out on the perimeter and defend post players who are capable of stretching the defense. When he is defending on the perimeter, though, he is often prone to biting on shot fakes.

In addition to these struggles, Bennett is also a very poor pick and roll defender. Bennett has poor hedging techniques and rarely forces the opposing team’s guard to change directions on pick and roll plays. Instead, he often appears to be mechanically going through the motions, and steps out only momentarily before getting back to defend the rim. On other occasions, he does not hedge at all and allows open perimeter jumpers. In the instances where he does provide a momentary hedge, Bennett rarely recovers quickly enough to get back to his man and is usually stuck on a switch off. Of all the areas he must improve, Bennett’s pick and roll defense needs the most work. 

All in all, Anthony Bennett is one of the most efficient offensive weapons in the country as a freshman (ninth in Offensive Rating among those who use 24 percent or more of their team’s possessions, and 85th best overall). He exhibits considerable promise as a faceup post player who can step out and hit from the mid range. With that said, Bennett has a lot of room for growth on the defensive end. While he possesses the physical tools to improve considerably, his mental approach to defense will need some fine-tuning at the next level. Due in large part to his intriguing offensive skillset, look for Bennett to climb up draft boards and cement himself as a late lottery selection in the upcoming 2013 NBA draft.

Today, I continue to preview the early season tournaments with printable bracket links, title odds, and commentary. Click here for Part 1 and here for Part 2. 

Anaheim Classic Printable Bracket

My model tends to predict big things for former Top 100 recruits, but despite 7 top recruits the model isn’t optimistic about Georgia Tech. Part of that is how poorly some of the Tech players performed last season. The other part is Brian Gregory’s track record. Gregory hasn’t exactly been a master at developing offensive stars. But if new elite recruits Robert Carter and Marcus Hunt are ready to play and a few of the returning players are late bloomers, Georgia Tech could still be a surprise this year.

This tournament has become substantially less appealing in the last two months. First Xavier expelled Dezmine Wells. Then Omar Oraby and Arsalan Kazemi announced they were transferring from Rice. But St. Mary’s welcomes back Matthew Dellavedova fresh off his Olympic summer, and Cal head coach Mike Montgomery is an NCAA tournament fixture, so expect at least a couple of these teams to be around in March.

Las Vegas Invitational Printable Bracket

Creighton brings back one of the most fun teams in the nation. Doug McDermott is a preseason All-American. Gregory Echenique is the shot-blocker in the middle who rocks a sweet pair of glasses. But I hope this is the year the other Blue Jays starters get some love. Ethan Wragge and Jahenns Manigat are lethal three point shooters. Wragge knocked down 66 threes last year, while Manigat knocked down 59.

And Grant Gibbs is the point-guard who keeps everything moving. All five of these guys should be household names this year. It is hard to write about Creighton without raising questions about their defense, but that is the only reason they aren’t the favorite here.

Wisconsin is getting some love this preseason, but the numbers like Wisconsin a little too much. (The Badgers actually finished 5^th last season according to the tempo free stats which was a bit of a stretch.) Certainly Wisconsin’s defense should be top notch again, but replacing Jordan Taylor could be a struggle early in the season, no matter how many strong offensive players the Badgers bring back.

Arizona St. is still a long way from fielding a competitive team in the Pac-12. But Arkansas should be substantially more dangerous this season.

Global Sports Classic Printable Bracket

I’ve talked about UCLA and Indiana returning to glory this season, but UNLV is well on its way as well. First head coach Dave Rice followed the tradition of former UNLV head coach Jerry Tarkanian and upped UNLV’s tempo last year from 110th in the nation to 29th. And then he made sure he had the offensive talent to make a fast pace work. Not only does UNLV return stars like Mike Moser and Anthony Marshall, the Rebels also bring in plenty of newcomers who should be instant contributors. Pittsburgh transfer Khem Birch (eligible midseason) and USC’s Bryce Jones give the team incredible depth, and Top 10 recruit Anthony Bennett gives UNLV the star power to beat anyone.

And even though the MWC was much improved last season, UNLV would love nothing more than to beat a couple of Power 6 conference teams and legitimize their resume early in the season. Oregon might not be an NCAA team (unless Arsalan Kazemi surprises us and becomes eligible), but the Ducks still look like a Top 100 opponent. And Iowa St. will be plenty good. This year the Cyclones only add two transfers (Michigan St.’s Korie Lucious and Utah’s Will Clyburn), but with returning leaders like Chris Babb and Melvin Ejim, the Cyclones remain dangerous.

As for Cincinnati, the Bearcats guards are fantastic, but Cincinnati has huge question marks in the front court. Returning forwards Justin Jackson and Cheikh Mbodj were not nearly as efficient as the departing starter Yancy Gates. And that means the team will have to hope freshman Shaquille Thomas, JUCO transfer David Nyarsuk, or JUCO transfer Titus Rubles can contribute immediately. It isn’t a huge stretch that one of these players will break out, but that uncertainty is why Cincinnati projects as a bubble team instead of a clear Top 25 squad.

South Padre Island Invitational Printable Bracket

Illinois St. has the returning talent to be the favorite, even without former head coach Tim Jankovich who left to be the coach-in-waiting at SMU. But Northwestern is the most fascinating team here. First, the Wildcats have a sudden influx of big men including TCU transfer Nikola Cerina, Louisville transfer Jared Swopshire, freshman Mike Turner, and 7 footers Chier Ajou and Alex Olah. Bill Carmody’s teams have never made the NCAA tournament, in no small part because they have lacked the defensive presence to shut down elite Big Ten teams. So I will be very curious to see if Northwestern’s defense can take a step forward this year with the addition of some true post defenders. And I will be equally curious to see if sharpshooter Alex Marcotullio earns more time this season. Northwestern is going to need Marcotullio’s scoring now that John Shurna has graduated, but his slow feet may have kept him off the court in the past. Perhaps with some quality defenders backing him up, Marcotullio can become more than just an occasional three point specialist.

Hoops for Hope Classic Printable Bracket

Larry Brown and Frank Martin are both starting rebuilding projects, but Frank Martin’s blueprint is more conducive to immediate success. Martin will immediately add toughness to his team’s lineup, and his team will rebound and defend its way out of the SEC cellar.

Las Vegas Classic Printable Bracket

Colorado St.’s Pierce Hornung may be 6’5”, but he is a rebounding machine and he is always worth the price of admission. And Colorado St. may be even more thrilled to have a real post center this year with Minnesota transfer Colton Iverson joining the mix. But the Rams seriously over-achieved last year, and could be in for a bit of a let-down this season.

On the flip side, Virginia Tech seriously under-achieved last year, and it cost head coach Seth Greenberg his job. Virginia Tech finished 4-12 last year, tied for dead last in the ACC. But their stats looked more like a mid-level ACC team than a cellar dweller. And with many of the most talented players returning, including Erick Green and Jarrell Eddie, Virginia Tech and Colorado St. looks like a toss-up. Indeed the reason Virginia Tech is the favorite here is because of the first round match-up. Bradley has been on a downward spiral in recent seasons, and because they are a much easier first round opponent, Virginia Tech gets the slight edge for the tournament title.

Diamond Head Classic Printable Bracket

Feel free to skip the first day of this tournament. Nowhere else in an eight team field are the quarterfinal matchups so lopsided. But the semifinals and finals should be solid.

First, it will be fun to see all of Arizona’s elite prospects in action. Were it not for UCLA’s incredible haul, everyone would be talking about Arizona’s great recruiting class. It will also be intriguing to see if Mississippi can break out of its NIT rut. Andy Kennedy could desperately use an upset here if he wants to end up on the right side of the bubble for a change.

But the real intrigue is with San Diego St. and Miami. First, San Diego St.’s resume looked great last year and earned the team a 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. But the margin-of-victory statistics disagreed and said the Aztecs were more like an NIT team. Games like these can help sort out whether the margin-of-victory stats had the right or wrong conclusion.

But the real team I want to see is Miami FL. Jim Larranaga was expected to turn a group of talented under-achievers into an NCAA tournament team last year, but he found that getting players like wide-bodied center Reggie Johnson to commit to defense was no easy task. It will be interesting to see whether he can motivate a group of talented veterans including Johnson and Durand Scott, or whether younger players like the extremely talented Rion Brown and point guard Shane Larkin ultimately seize the identity of this team. Miami clearly has the talent to make the NCAA tournament, but Jim Larranaga is finding out that coaching a team that “should” make the NCAA tournament is often harder than coaching a team that “hopes” to make the NCAA tournament.

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