Last fall on Basketball Prospectus I introduced the first ever lineup-based predictions model. Even -though I intend to make improvements to the model over the summer, since I already have the programming code written, today I wanted to rerun the first version of the model and see what it tells us about the 2013-2014 season.

The biggest problem is guessing which players will declare for the draft. I haven’t seen an official announcement for Nerlens Noel or Shabazz Muhammad, but I think it is clear they are both leaving. I also assume that anyone who can make this year’s lottery would be foolish not to leave. Thus I assume Ben McLemore, Marcus Smart, Victor Oladipo, Otto Porter, and Trey Burke are gone. Michael Carter-Williams never struck me as an obvious lottery choice this year, but the consensus seems to be that the scouts like his size and NCAA tournament play, so I project him as leaving.  Similarly a slew of big guys seem likely to go pro from Gorgui Dieng, to Cody Zeller, to Alex Len, to Kelly Olynyk.

Notably, I’m not going to assume Doug McDermott and Russ Smith come back. I understand there isn’t much more they can accomplish in college, but based on the draft projections I have seen, neither player is guaranteed to be a first round pick right now.  I think that if you are not certain to get a guaranteed contract in the NBA, the risk of leaving is pretty high. Thus I’m going to assume these players return, even though that may be a dubious conclusion.

 Key:

Pred Off, Pred Def, Pred Pythag: The predicted points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, and predicted winning percentage against an average D1 team on a neutral floor.

Returning Minutes, Possessions: The loss of high possession players can be a larger detriment to the offense, thus I list percentage of returning possessions in addition to returning minutes.

T100: Number of players who were Top 100 recruits out of high school. People focus on Top 100 freshmen, but Top 100 players are also more likely to become breakout stars later in their career.

Last Pythag: Last year’s Pythagorean winning percentage according to Kenpom.com. This is essentially a measure of each team’s margin-of-victory in 2012-13.

Kentucky: The Wildcats have the most talent by far, and the most NBA potential, by far. The only question is time. Can John Calipari teach such a wide array of talent to play together in one year? In three of his four years, John Calipari has managed to get the Wildcats to play elite defense. The model hedges its bets and says the defense might not come together that quickly. (The fact that defense-lacking Kyle Witjer is still going to play meaningful minutes is also a concern.) But with all those Top 20 recruits, and all those highly ranked returning sophomores, it is very hard to predict anything other than a special offensive team.

Michigan St.: I’m assuming Gary Harris is coming back based on Tom Izzo’s comments. When a Top 10 Big Ten squad returns basically all its key players, it is hard not to have high expectations. Kenny Kaminski will be healthy. Denzel Valentine and Matt Costello both remain high potential guys who should see a sophomore leap in efficiency. And Harris, Keith Appling, Branden Dawson, and Adreian Payne are as good a returning set of four starters as you will find. Michigan St. might not be the most talented team in the country, but they have fewer lineup questions than just about anyone.

North Carolina: The Tar Heels will be back. The two biggest lineup issues this year were point-guard and one of the forward slots.  We already saw glimpses of point guard Marcus Paige’s improved play late in the year and he should be a star in year two. I can’t tell you exactly who will develop as a post compliment to James McAdoo, but someone will. Whether it will be freshman Isaiah Hicks or Kennedy Meeks, or (after a summer of working out in the gym) Brice Johnson or Joel James, the Tar Heels have four former elite high school post players to choose from. At least one of them will be ready. Overall, North Carolina has more Top 100 talent than anyone else.

Louisville: With players like Montrezl Harrell playing well in limited time this year, Louisville has a chance to go to the Final Four again. But this high ranking depends on Russ Smith’s return. Without Smith, the team will be putting a heavy burden on incoming freshman point guard Terry Rozier. Rozier isn’t in this year’s ESPN’s Top 100 because he needed a year of prep school, but he was a consensus Top 100 recruit last year. RSCI had him 75th.

Florida: Don’t be scared away because the Gators return only 54% of their offense from last year. The Gators add two instant impact recruitsin Kasey Hill and Chris Walker, along with two transfers who were former Top 100 players, Damontre Harris and Dorian Finney-Smith. If the point-guard Hill lives up to his hype, Florida might be even better than last year. They will certainly be deeper.

Michigan: The further development of Mitch McGary, Glen Robinson, and the addition of another stellar recruiting class should help overcome the loss of Trey Burke. But if additional players declare for the draft, Michigan’s expectations could slip.

Arizona: My gut tells me Arizona may be a little too low here. Arizona loses a lot of production, but they have the right pieces coming in. Point guard TJ McConnell was phenomenal at Duquesne and unlike Mark Lyons, McConnell is more of a natural PG. Aaron Gordon and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson should be instant-impact recruits. And the returning sophomores on the front line should be better in year two. The model is mostly concerned whether Sean Miller can bring together an elite defensive team. Last year was Miller’s best defensive team yet, but it still wasn’t an elite defensive team. Until Miller gets his team to play great defense for a full season, there will always be reasons to be skeptical.

Marquette: Vander Blue, Davante Gardner, and Jamil Wilson are back. Buzz Williams has his best recruiting class yet, and the team should have more Top 100 talent than it has ever had in his tenure. Plus Buzz Williams gets the most out of his players by studying the data and eliminating bad possessions. Still, even if the model likes Marquette as a top 10 team, I am concerned that Williams typically has a short-leash with his freshmen. And if they don’t contribute, Marquette may still lack the talent to be an elite team.

Duke: Quinn Cook hasn’t been dominant yet, but he was a Top 10 recruit out of high school, and he is still a high potential player. Andre Dawkins should return from his sabbatical and paired with Rasheed Sulaimon on the perimeter, the Duke back-court looks strong. In the front-court, Amile Jefferson was a solid offensive player when filling in for Ryan Kelly and Jabari Parker is an instant impact recruit. And don’t overlook Mississippi St. transfer Rodney Hood. Duke loses a lot, but the lineup still looks dominant.

Wisconsin: Once again, a model based on the tempo free numbers loves Bo Ryan’s squad. I’m skeptical, but the lineup does look legitimate next year. Remember Josh Gasser is coming back after missing all of last year with an injury. The team’s most important scorer Ben Brust is back. Frank Kaminsky played well in limited minutes. And most importantly, Sam Dekker might be the best post player Bo Ryan has ever had. Seriously, the Badgers lose 45% of their possessions from last year, and the tempo free model still loves them.

Click here for Teams 11 to 25.

Inconsistency can be a good thing. Illinois is a borderline NCAA tournament team this year. But thanks to the peaks of their inconsistency, the Fighting Illini won the Maui invitational, won at Butler, and beat the top ranked Hoosiers. Sure, the Illini were blown out by 20 at home by Northwestern, but the season wouldn’t have nearly been as fun if the Northwestern and Indiana victories were flipped.

On the flip side, if your team is a national title contender, inconsistency is a bad thing. If you want to win six games in the NCAA tournament, you cannot afford to have lapses every few games. In the next table, I attempt to determine which teams are most likely to have those lapses.

I take the teams in the Top 16 of the Pomeroy Rankings and figure out how often they look beatable on the basketball court. Determining a cut-off for beatable is somewhat hard, but I decided to count any game where the team’s game-specific Pythagorean Rating would be less than 0.9000. (Pythagorean Rating adjusts for opponent and venue as on kenpom.com.) 

This cut-off is quite different from counting losses. A team doesn’t have to lose to have a bad game. Miami’s two-point win at Clemson and one-point win at Boston College were bad games even though the Hurricanes ultimately prevailed. Those games showed Miami was beatable, even when at full strength. Similarly, Michigan St.’s three-point home win against Louisiana-Lafayette was one of the worst performances of the season by an elite team, even if the Spartans were victorious.

On the flip side, by using the 0.9000 cutoff, a few losses will not be counted as bad performances. Michigan lost by three at Ohio St. and in overtime at Wisconsin, but neither of those count as bad games. Florida lost by one point at Arizona and Georgetown lost in OT to Indiana, but those do not count as bad games either.

One thing I noticed is that a lot of games against teams ranked 300+ in the rankings looked like bad performances. Even if you beat a team ranked 300+ by 20 points, that doesn’t look like a dominant game because everyone beats those teams by 20 points. But I don’t think a 20-point win should ever count against a team, so I’m throwing those games out. The table only includes games against teams ranked 1-300 in the Pomeroy Rankings.

Surprisingly, this metric paints a different picture than the Pomeroy rankings. While Indiana and Louisville have had disappointing moments this season, the truth is that both teams rarely look beatable. Indiana and Louisville have only played poorly about 15 percent of the time this year. Conversely, Kansas has looked beatable 43 percent of the time. And while Michigan St. has played better in-conference, the Spartans were simply pedestrian throughout the non-conference schedule. 

Next, I wanted to look for the common-denominator in these bad performances.  This can be different from an overall weakness. For example, Florida’s overall weakness is getting to the free throw line. But that does not explain what happens when the Gators play poorly. When the Gators play poorly the problem is that the defense isn’t playing at an elite level. In the five games listed above, the Gator’s opponents have an eFG% of 52 percent compared to 41 percent during the rest of the season. 

When Teams Play Poorly 

Indiana: The Hoosiers struggle most in slow-paced games where their opponents avoid turnovers. Presumably, the Hoosiers do not want to see a team like Notre Dame running the burn offense in their bracket. The Hoosiers have been nearly identical on offense in their good and bad games. But forcing turnovers is key to their defensive success, and when they don’t force turnovers, the Hoosiers are beatable.

Louisville: The 0.9000 cutoff is a little generous for Louisville. Both the Syracuse and Georgetown losses do not count as bad games. If we raised the cutoff to 0.9100, Louisville would actually have two more bad games on their ledger. Still, I think Louisville’s bad performances are illuminating. In the team’s four worst performances on the season (the loss to Villanova, a home squeaker against Kentucky, a home squeaker against Illinois St., and the loss to Notre Dame), Russ Smith has struggled to make good decisions with the basketball. Louisville needs Russ Smith to play well to win. Louisville also plays poorly when a lot of fouls are called in the game and they cannot force clean turnovers.

Michigan: If Russ Smith is an indicator of whether Louisville will win or lose, Tim Hardaway Jr. is equally important for Michigan. Hardaway had an ORtg of 19 in the team’s loss at Michigan St., an ORtg of 68 at Bradley, and an ORtg of 73 vs Penn St. The other issue for the Wolverines is offensive rebounds. Michigan is not a great offensive rebounding team, but in the Wolverines worst offensive games, they’ve seen their offensive rebounding percentage plummet from 34% to 26%. Finally, Michigan’s biggest strength is avoiding fouls, but against a team like Wisconsin, that doesn’t need to get to the free throw line to score, that asset was less valuable. Mid-majors like Creighton or South Dakota St. could be a nightmare for Michigan, because both teams can score without needing to get to the free throw line, and both teams do a solid job on the defensive glass.

Florida: When the Gators play poorly, it is usually about shooting. They shoot worse and their opponents shoot better. That’s a little hard to predict, but one thing to keep in mind, Florida does seem to do better when the pace is in the 50s. Missouri and Arkansas had success against Florida by upping the tempo. But this isn’t all about turnovers. Florida played poorly against Kansas St. in a game where they didn’t turn the ball over much at all. I think a team like Memphis that can push the ball up and down and attack before the Florida defense gets set, might be the true kryptonite for the Gators.

Duke: Duke’s five worst performances have come since Ryan Kelly went down. But before we get too excited about his return, remember that not all players return from injury and dominate. Mike Moser is still getting back into shape for UNLV, and we cannot guarantee that Ryan Kelly will return Duke to early season form. For Duke, throwing off the pace also seems like a big deal. They struggled in a very slow game at Boston College, and in very high-paced games at Maryland and Miami FL. With Kelly out and Seth Curry playing through an injury, I don’t think Duke wants to play high possession games quite like in past seasons.

Syracuse: Syracuse’s weaknesses are the typical ones with a zone defense. If a team has a forward who can dominate from the high post (see Davante Gardner), that team can carve up Syracuse. And as is typical with the zone, when Syracuse doesn’t grab defensive rebounds, the Orange do not play well. Syracuse struggled with defensive rebounding in narrow wins over Cincinnati and Detroit and losses to Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, and Temple. A strong offensive rebounding team like Colorado St. or Minnesota is presumably Syracuse’s worst nightmare. This year, without depth on the perimeter, Brandon Triche is also a concern. Triche isn’t a perfect predictor of Syracuse’s poor play (he did play well against Temple and Villanova), but when Triche is struggling, Syracuse also typically struggles. Finally, Syracuse struggles in slow-paced games this year. Because they are not a great half-court team, Syracuse needs transition opportunities to play well.

Pittsburgh: When Pittsburgh plays poorly, it is usually about the offense not working. Their adjusted offense is 123.1 in their good games and 104.9 in their bad games. Teams that have perimeter depth and can keep Tray Woodall, James Robinson, and Lamar Patterson out of the lane are Pittsburgh’s biggest problem. Guard-oriented teams from Rutgers to Cincinnati to Marquette to Michigan have been able to do that.

Arizona: The Wildcats might win the Pac-12, but seven of Arizona’s eight bad performances have come in conference play, so I am worried that this team is not peaking. Arizona is a team that really relies on getting to the free throw line, and teams that avoid fouls can be Arizona’s kryptonite. In the tournament, Arizona does not want to see a team that can defend well without fouling. Whether it would be a team with size (like Maryland) or just good fundamentals (like Wisconsin), there are a lot of teams that fit this profile.

Gonzaga: Gonzaga hasn’t been challenged much lately, so it is hard to find a stat that really does the job, but I’m going to focus on defensive rebounding. Since Gonzaga does not have a great eFG% defense, they cannot afford to give up second chance points. Teams like San Diego and Santa Clara hung with the Zags in conference play by crashing the glass. In most games Gonzaga grabs 72% of the defensive boards, but that percentage has dipped to 66% in their worst games. Gonzaga’s defensive rebounding also nearly cost them the game against Washington St. Gonzaga’s defense also has trouble containing great point-guards, but there are not enough of those in the WCC to really prove the point.

Ohio St.: Ohio St. has been Jekyll and Hyde defensively this year. In the 16 good games, the adjusted defensive efficiency has been 83.3. But in the team’s 9 worst performances on the year, the adjusted defense has only been 97.9. It seems like the Buckeyes have struggled more with perimeter-oriented-teams. Northwestern, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Illinois have all made the Buckeye defense look porous this year by shooting lights out. But you have to blame the Ohio St. offense a little too. When the team falls behind, because the offense isn’t good enough to score points in bunches, they have to take more chances defensively. And those gambles have led to some ugly final margins. Really, I wish someone could explain why Ohio St.’s defense is so bad in some games, because I really believe defense is Ohio St.’s strength.

Georgetown: Georgetown’s worst games have come at a slow pace against mediocre teams. See Liberty, Towson, and South Florida. They also usually involved a horrible offensive performance by the team, but that has been changing. Only one of the Hoyas bad performances has come in February, the narrow win at Rutgers.

Miami: Miami should probably be a little higher on this list, because some of the worst performances (like the Florida Gulf Coast game) came with personnel missing. Still, I think it is revealing that four of Miami’s worst performances have come in February. Miami may only have one ACC loss, but that doesn’t mean they have been dominant every time out. Much like Georgetown, Miami has struggled against some bad teams (Boston College, Wake Forest).

Kansas: Kansas has looked like an average team remarkably often this season. When the offense isn’t working, turnovers are almost always to blame. Kansas has to feed Ben McLemore and Jeff Withey to score consistently, and teams that can take the ball away on entry passes are potentially a big problem for the Jayhawks. A team like Robert Morris could be a nightmare first round opponent, given the Colonials ability to create turnovers. This is especially true given that Kansas has struggled against mediocre teams this year from Chattanooga to TCU.

Oklahoma St.: Oklahoma St. is not a great shooting team, particularly from the perimeter. So they need offensive rebounds and free throws to compete. Baylor and Virginia Tech avoided fouls and beat the Cowboys. Kansas St. crashed the defensive glass and did the same thing.

Michigan St: While most of the Spartans mediocre performances came in the non-conference schedule, the Spartans have struggled to put away Penn St. and Nebraska in conference play too. The story for Michigan St. always seems to be about turnovers, good or bad. When the Spartans force them, they win. When the Spartans give the ball away, they look bad.

Wisconsin: Wisconsin has seven games where they were completely dominant. In the blowout wins over Ohio St., Northwestern, Illinois, Cornell, California, and Southeastern Louisiana, and the big time win at Indiana the Badgers had a Pythagorean winning percentage above 0.9900. But over the rest of the schedule the Badgers have been remarkably pedestrian. As the numbers listed above show, Wisconsin has looked beatable on 14 occasions. It usually comes down to shooting. In Wisconsin’s 11 best games of the year, they have an eFG% of 54%. In the 14 games where they were beatable, the Badgers eFG% has only been 44%. Even if Wisconsin has snuck back into the Top 10 of Sagarin’s Predictor and Pomeroy’s rankings, with that kind of offensive inconsistency, they do not look like a Final Four team.

Today, I organize the teams in the Top 6 conferences (sorry SEC), plus conference leaders Florida, Gonzaga, Butler, and Creighton. Alright, I threw in a few more SEC teams just for fun. I couldn’t bear to leave out Kentucky. This is about tiers – the individual rankings are less important.

John Wooden Division

Betting against these teams would be foolish.

None –There are no dominant teams in college basketball this year.

Jim Calhoun Division

Yes, there are flaws. But the former Huskies coach often made those disappear in March. These teams can win it all as the UConn coach did on three occasions.

1. Michigan (8-3) – I know it sounds odd. Michigan is 1-2 in its last three games, and the Wolverines' win came in overtime. But watching the Wolverines against elite competition, I’ve only gained more trust for this team. If an opponent’s defense is bad, the Wolverines will kill them with cuts to the basket and brilliant passes for lay-ups. If an opponent clogs the lane, Nik Stauskas will kill them from three point range. If the opponent’s offense is sloppy with the ball, you will find Glenn Robinson running the court for easy dunks. But the true beauty of this team happens when the opponent’s defense is stout and there are no transition opportunities. That’s when Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke go to work. In a college basketball year devoid of NBA-level talent, Hardaway and Burke find a way to get their shots. Michigan’s defense remains a concern. But remember that Jordan Morgan has been out the last few games. Jon Horford isn’t quite at Morgan’s level. With Mitch McGary emerging as a more consistent player on both ends of the court, I’m starting to believe that Michigan’s defense will be good enough. As for the youth, I’ve already discussed that. Michigan’s team isn’t playing young. If Kentucky showed anything the last few years, it is that talent can make up for youth. There are no dominant teams this year. But John Beilein has often overachieved in the NCAA tournament. And if anyone can go on a run, Michigan feels like that team to me.

2. Miami FL (10-0) – When I ran the injury splits for Miami a few weeks ago, the numbers showed that Miami was the No. 1 team in the nation when its entire roster was available. I laughed and concluded that it was probably unsustainable. But after Miami crushed North Carolina this weekend, I’m starting to wonder if maybe the Hurricanes really are this good. What I cannot quite figure out is what happened to Miami last season. I thought for certain that Miami had a good offensive team last year and that Jim Larranaga would improve the defense enough to make Miami into a NCAA tournament team. But when Reggie Johnson continued to loaf, and the team looked disinterested in a home blowout NIT loss in March, I convinced myself that the ceiling for this group was low. Sure we saw some signs late last year that this team might be better. Shane Larkin emerged as a decent point-guard. And Kenny Kadji had an occasional explosive game. But this looked like a team destined for another inconsistent and maddening season. And yet something has changed. Despite additional injuries that might have disrupted the team’s continuity, and despite many of the same players as last year, Jim Larranaga has this group committed to playing elite defense.

3. Duke (8-2) – The one point win at Boston College was very head-scratching and very uncharacteristic for a Mike Krzyzewki team. But Ryan Kelly will be back before the tournament. And no one accomplished more when he was healthy than the Duke Blue Devils.

4. Indiana (9-2) – What bothers me about the Hoosiers is that fundamentally this is the same team as last year. They flipped Verdell Jones for Yogi Ferrell, but I am extremely disappointed that none of the other players has emerged as a strong 7th rotation player for the team. Maybe I was foolish to think that Maurice Creek might be healthy. Maybe I was foolish to think that one of the non-Ferrell freshmen might emerge as a strong post compliment to Zeller. But this is essentially the same six-man unit that lost in the Sweet Sixteen last year. With Victor Oladipo’s improvement, Indiana might still have enough talent to win a national title. But they have not met my preseason expectations.

5. Florida (9-1) – I’m not going to join the national dialogue that says Florida’s reliance on three-point shooting is a problem. My concern is simply the loss of Will Yeguete. Not only was Yeguete the best defensive rebounder on the team, in my eyes he was the key to the defensive improvement this year. Opposing teams could not match his strength and physicality in the paint. I think we will start to see how important Yeguete was when the Gators play Kentucky on Tuesday.

6. Syracuse (8-2) – Some people confused my commentary on James Southerland as saying the Orange were better off without him. On the contrary, I was simply trying to point out how other people stepped up while he was out. And Syracuse is going to appreciate Jerami Grant’s development later in the season.

7. Gonzaga (10-0) – Their defense isn’t quite as good as some other elite teams. And I would argue Gonzaga’s biggest strength (its front-court depth), is an over-rated strength come tournament time. But in a wide-open season like this one, you have to believe that Gonzaga is one of several teams that could legitimately win it all.

8. Louisville (7-4) – The most frustrating part of Louisville’s epic five OT loss to Notre Dame was that if Russ Smith had just made a few better decisions, Louisville might have won the game. With Good Russ Smith this team will always be capable of winning it all. With Bad Russ Smith, this team will always be capable of bowing out on the opening weekend.

Eddie Sutton Division

800 wins, zero NCAA titles. I have a ton of respect for these teams, but I don’t see a title in their future.

9. Michigan St. (9-2) – All the effort the team has spent on trying to develop Denzel Valentine as an alternative point-guard hasn’t really paid off. And thus the team needs Keith Appling to play out of his mind to win. Appling has been superhuman, but I cannot really see him doing it for six games in a row against quality competition. Tom Izzo’s teams usually over-achieve in the post-season, but this feels like a team that is over-achieving in the regular season.

10. Butler (7-2) – Butler’s record is a little bit of fool’s gold. Among true NCAA title contenders, New Mexico and Butler are far and away the “luckiest” at this point in the season. Butler has beaten Indiana by two points, Gonzaga by one point, and even needed some last second magic to hang on against George Washington on Saturday. Still, if ever a coach has convinced us that margin-of-victory isn’t everything, it is Brad Stevens. Through intense study of the film and the stats, his teams have consistently found a way to out-execute teams with more talent.

11. Ohio St. (7-4) – Ohio St.’s defense is good enough to go on a deep run. But you cannot have a one dimensional offense come NCAA tournament time. And teams will find a way to take DeShaun Thomas away. That should mean the end to Ohio St.’s season. But the reason I’m still including Ohio St. in this category is that I don’t feel like we’ve seen the best from some of Ohio St.’s complimentary players yet. Players like LaQuinton Ross have shown flashes of brilliance, but not quite put it together consistently. And with all the former top recruits like Amir Williams and Sam Thompson still on the team, I feel like we haven’t seen this team’s top gear yet.

12. Wisconsin (8-3) – I had Wisconsin in the next group until I saw Jared Berggren’s dunk (and one) that tied the game late against Michigan. That was one of the sickest and most important dunks of the year. Every time I write off Traevon Jackson for his horrible turnovers, he makes a key play down the stretch. And Ben Brust seems to have plenty of big shots in him too. For a team that doesn’t have a Keith Appling or Trey Burke level play-maker, they still make a lot of key plays in close games.

Gene Keady Division

Keady was dominant in the Big Ten, but no one suffered more puzzling NCAA tournament losses (or near losses) as a No. 1 seed than the former Purdue coach.

13. Kansas (8-3) – No one has suffered more because of Kentucky’s recent recruiting success than Kansas and North Carolina. While the Jayhawks and Tar Heels have historically been loaded with Top 10 recruits, these two elite programs are trying to get by with guys who just are not at that level. Because of Bill Self’s defense, Kansas will always be competitive. And I think they will still find a way to win the Big 12 even with the recent losing streak. But unfortunately for the Jayhawks, they don’t have a bench full of Ben McLemore-level talents anymore.

14. Arizona (8-3) – While they have plenty of elite talent, post-players usually take more time to develop. And Arizona’s bigs do not seem consistent enough for a deep run yet.

15. Pittsburgh (8-4) – Pittsburgh is the deepest team in the country. They legitimately go 10 deep and have incredible versatility. If teams use full-court pressure, Pittsburgh can play two true point-guards in Tray Woodall and James Robinson. If teams are strong in the middle, they have three legitimate low-post athletes in Steven Adams, Talib Zanna, and Dante Taylor. If you need a player to come off the bench and penetrate, they have Trey Zeigler. And Lamar Patterson does a little bit of everything. But depth is exactly my biggest concern with this team. Sure, their margin-of-victory numbers look great, and they’ve blown out lots of teams. But what is the best 5-man lineup for the Panthers? Do they have a clear core group of guys who you can count on in crunch time? I think Pittsburgh’s second unit is better than any second unit in the nation. But I am not convinced Pittsburgh’s first unit is capable of a deep tournament run.

16. Kansas St. (8-3) – People keep talking about what a great job Bruce Weber has done at Kansas St., but I’m not buying it. If Frank Martin had come back, this team would have been in the Top 25 too. In fact, Frank Martin had better margin-of-victory numbers with this same group of players last season than Bruce Weber has this season.

17. Oregon (8-3) – Starting in mid-January, it finally clicked in Dana Altman’s head that he should play Arsalan Kazemi more. And the transfer has rewarded him with the best defensive rebounding percentage in the nation. But with Dominic Artis still out, and EJ Singler struggling with turnovers this season now that he is the go-to-scorer, I need to see more before I get back on the Oregon bandwagon.

John Chaney Division

The former Temple coach usually wasn’t a favorite to win it all, but you had to respect his match-up zone and how hard his team’s competed in every tournament.

18. Oklahoma St. (7-3) – It is hard to believe with LeBryan Nash grabbing a paltry 11.6% of his team’s defensive rebounds that Oklahoma St.’s defense could be this good. In fact, given Travis Ford’s past lineup patterns that prefer perimeter oriented big players, I never really thought one of his teams could play elite defense. But Marcus Smart is almost single-handedly willing his team to play lock-down basketball. Smart is even picking up the slack with extra rebounding too.

19. UCLA (8-3) – This is such a weird season. UCLA hasn’t really done much the last two weeks, but almost by default they are back in a tie for first place in the Pac-12. But a team with Shabazz Muhammad is going to be a mighty attractive bracket pick in a month.

20. Colorado St. (6-2) –Colorado St. learned to succeed with an undersized team in 2011. But in 2012, with a true center in Colton Iverson, everything they learned in 2011 is paying even greater dividends. The undersized rebounders that they had in 2011 have made them the top defensive rebounding team in 2012.

21. San Diego St. (6-3) – Jamaal Franklin is a classic example of a leader finding a way to contribute even when his shot is not falling. His outside shot is completely off, but his rebounding, assists, and free throw rate are all better than last year, and thus he is still finding ways to dominate.

22. Marquette (8-3) – Buzz Williams has a reputation for getting the most out of his players every year, and squeezing out key victories, but a lot of that is simply avoiding freshmen mistakes. In his five years at Marquette, Buzz Williams has played only one freshman more than 20 minutes per game, and that was Todd Mayo last year.

Rick Barnes Division

I try to name these divisions after retired coaches, but the Rick Barnes analogy is too perfect. His teams always had a lot of talent, but were fatally flawed in the tournament.

23. Baylor (6-4) – Scott Drew’s recruiting puts Baylor in the preseason Top 25 year-after-year. And his recruits generally pan out. Of all the post prospects, Isaiah Austin is having a solid year. But just like every year, the Bears win total is disappointing.

24-26. New Mexico (7-2)/Georgetown (8-3)/Virginia (7-3) – All of these teams play fantastic defense, which means they can beat anyone. But their offenses often look horrible. If these teams run into a hot-shooting small conference team (you know the kind almost everyone faces in the first round), they will have a hard time keeping up.

27-29. Notre Dame (7-4)/NC State (6-5)/Creighton (9-4) – Despite my emotional reaction to Notre Dame and NC State’s weekend wins, I can’t change my evaluation of these teams. As brilliant as these teams are offensively, their defense just isn’t good enough to win multiple NCAA games. Louisville has a much deeper team than Notre Dame, so the longer Saturday’s 5OT game went, the more likely it seemed the Fighting Irish would lose. But then Garrick Sherman came in after spending all of regulation on the bench, and it turned out that having a fresh player was advantageous. His late baskets to extend the game were unbelievable. And NC State’s last second win over Clemson was equally amazing. Scott Wood used a CJ Leslie screen under the baseline to get free, but then doubled back to catch a kick-out from a penetrating Lorenzo Brown. Wood’s three won the game with 1 second left in regulation.

30. Arizona St. (7-4) Carrick Felix is substantially better than last year. And Jahii Carson is a tremendous freshman. But Arizona St. isn’t dominant on offense or defense. Don’t let their Pac-12 record fool you.

Gary Williams Division

Because Gary Williams played Duke and North Carolina every year, his team rarely looked great in the regular season. But his teams were plenty good in the tournament, including his National Championship in 2002. I like both of these teams for the Sweet Sixteen which probably means at least one upset.

31. Cincinnati (6-5) – Now that Titus Rubles has cooled off, Cincinnati is struggling mightily to find any sort of low post-scoring. I would ask why Justin Jackson is still starting since Mick Cronin has zero faith in him right now. But Cronin doesn’t really seem to have anyone else to turn to. And the recent struggles mean Cincinnati’s Big East record looks rather middling. But Cincinnati’s defense will keep them competitive with anyone, and Sean Kilpatrick is going to will Cincinnati to the Sweet Sixteen.

32. UNLV (5-4)  – I still don’t understand how this team is 5-4 in the MWC. Anthony Bennett might be the top freshman in the country and there are top 100 recruits throughout the lineup. Perhaps I should note that Mike Moser is clearly not himself since returning from injury. Or I could point out that Anthony Marshall’s TO rate has increased from 17.6% in 2011 to 22.9% last season to 25.9% this season. But the win over conference leading New Mexico shows why I still believe in this team.

Karl Hobbs Division

Hobbs' George Washington team went 26-2 and 16-0 in the A10 in 2006, but it was a down year and his team only earn an 8-seed in the Big Dance.

33/34. Ole Miss (7-3) / Kentucky (8-2). The Rebels have one win against the RPI Top 50, and even lost non-conference games against Middle Tennessee and Indiana St. that would have boosted their profile. Ole Miss could finish 14-4 in the SEC and much like Washington last season, they might be headed to the NIT. Kentucky’s profile isn’t substantially better. And unlike past seasons when Kentucky crushed weak teams, the Wildcats only seem to be sneaking by this year. There are a lot of things to blame. Kyle Wiltjer is an offensive player who isn’t good on defense. Ryan Harrow is an improving but immature point-guard, not a typical Calipari Top 5 pick. And Archie Goodwin’s lack of an outside game is really limiting him offensively.

35. North Carolina (6-4) – In the preseason, I ranked the Tar Heels 26th in the nation and my Twitter audience thought I was nuts for leaving them out of the Top 25. But the fact is Roy Williams hasn’t been able to get efficient play out of his freshmen in any of the recent seasons. With Marcus Paige shooting 34% on his twos and 29% on his threes, it is hard to see how Williams could have been raving about him so much in the pre-conference schedule.

Dino Gaudio Division

Wake Forest couldn’t see the forest for the trees when they fired Gaudio in 2010. All of these teams may have disappointing elements, but there is quality there.

36/37. Illinois (4-7)/Minnesota (5-6) – Illinois senior Tyler Griffey has lost his starting job three times in his career, so to see him score the game-winner against Indiana was a special moment. 

38-42. Oklahoma (7-4)/Iowa St. (6-4)/Stanford (6-5)/Colorado (6-5)/California (6-5) – These are all solid teams. But they aren’t all making the tournament.

43. Iowa (4-7) - Iowa lost by 4 to Wisconsin in OT, by 3 at Minnesota, by 3 at Purdue in OT, by 3 against Michigan St., and by 4 against Indiana. They don’t have the quality wins to be in the NCAA discussion, but this might be the sixth best team in the Big Ten.

44-46. Connecticut (6-4)/Villanova (6-5)/St. John’s (7-5) – Steve Lavin may not have St. John’s in the NCAA tournament yet, but he is a difference maker. The Red Storm had a defensive rating of 93.9 two years ago with Lavin on the sideline, 101.3 last year when he was out, and 93.0 again this year with Lavin back.

47. Maryland (5-6) – I rarely criticize a coaches lineup decisions because coaches are heavily invested in winning. I think a lot of what Mark Turgeon is doing is building for the future by giving massive minutes to his freshmen this year. But I don’t understand why Senior Logan Aronhalt isn’t playing more. He’s a great 3 point shooter, and when he is on the floor, that only makes it easier to feed Alex Len in the paint. Maryland has too many quality offensive pieces to be struggling to score like they are.

48-49. Boise St. (4-5) / USC (6-5) – USC clearly played too tough a non-conference schedule and with 13 losses, they may not be going anywhere in the post-season. But that is a shame because their margin-of-victory numbers suggest they should at least be in the NIT hunt.

Tim Welsh Division

Tim Welsh got caught in the NIT trap at Providence. His teams were often competitive, but he could never make the NCAA tournament, and eventually he was shown the door.

50. Washington (5-6) – Five of Washington’s remaining games are at home, so they do have that going for them.

51. Florida St. (5-5) - Florida St. hasn’t beaten an ACC team with a winning conference record.

52. Purdue (5-6) – Purdue hasn’t beaten a Big Ten team with a winning conference record.

53. West Virginia (5-5) – And West Virginia hasn’t beaten a Big 12 team with a winning conference record either.

Bob Huggins Division

This division is in honor of the 2000 season when Kenyon Martin’s injury derailed everything for Cincinnati.

54/55. Wyoming (2-7)/Texas (2-8) Luke Martinez’s exit has been devastating for Wyoming. Texas’ Myck Kabongo is finally eligible this week, but it is hard to imagine what kind of run Texas would have to go on in order to salvage their season.

Sidney Lowe Division

I remember watching NC State get blown out by North Carolina and listening to Dick Vitale tell the fans to be patient. “Hope is on the way! They’ve got a great recruiting class coming in! Things are going to get better! Hope is on the way!”

56. Providence (4-7) – If Ricardo Ledo becomes eligible and doesn’t jump for the draft, next year will be brighter than this year.

57. LSU (4-6) – 2013 recruits Jarrell Martin and Jordan Mickey should eventually get Johnny Jones the NCAA win this hard-working coach deserves.

58. Nebraska (3-8) – New head coach Tim Miles provides plenty of reason for optimism.

Keno Davis Division

59-65. Wake Forest (4-7) / Clemson (4-7) / Northwestern (4-7) / Boston College (2-8) / Georgia Tech (3-7) / Nevada (3-6) / Fresno St. (2-7) – Uggh.

66-68. DePaul (1-9) /South Florida (1-10) /Rutgers (3-8): I don’t normally get upset about bad teams. But the bottom of the Big East makes me extremely angry. Why is it that just about every season you can copy and paste the same names at the bottom of the standings? All three of these teams had some nice returning pieces. There is no excuse for these teams not to have shown at least some upward mobility this season.

Jerry Wainwright Division

69-74. Seton Hall (2-9) / Virginia Tech (2-8) / Texas Tech (2-8) / Oregon St. (2-9) / Washington St. (2-9) / Utah (2-9) / TCU (1-10) / Penn St. (0-11) – Hey, at least Oregon St.’s Craig Robinson got to attend this year’s inauguration.

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