6/3 Update: With Tarik Black joining the fold, Kansas moved up to #5 in my model. Rather than issue an entirely new Top 25, I decided to update this post. This now also includes a few other changes such as DeAndre Kane backing out of his commitment at Pitt, JJ Moore finally officially transferring from Pitt, while Joseph Uchebo enrolling at Pitt from junior college.

Pred Off, PredDef, PredPythag: The predicted points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, and predicted winning percentage against an average D1 team on a neutral floor.

Returning Minutes, Possessions: The loss of high possession players can be a larger detriment to the offense, thus I list percentage of returning possessions in addition to returning minutes.

T100: Number of players who were Top 100 recruits out of high school. People focus on Top 100 freshmen, but Top 100 players are also more likely to become breakout stars later in their career.

Last Pythag: Last year’s Pythagorean winning percentage according to Kenpom.com. This is essentially a measure of each team’s margin-of-victory in 2012-13.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

With the #1 high school recruit Andrew Wiggins in the fold, Kansas is once again the Big 12 favorite. Just look at the high school recruiting ranks of Kansas’ potential starting lineup:

PG Naadir Tharpe (RSCI #91 player in 2011)

SG Wayne Selden (ESPNU #14 in 2013)

SF Andrew Wiggins (ESPNU #1 in 2013)

PF Perry Ellis (RSCI #31 in 2012)

C Joel Embiid (up to #6 in ESPNU Top 100, though lower in other rankings).

Bench: Brannen Greene (ESPNU #47 in 2013), Conner Frankamp (ESPNU #46 in 2013), and Andrew White (RSCI #52 in 2012)

That’s a pretty special group of talent. But we need to be cautious before we label Kansas a Final Four favorite. This team is exceptionally young. None of these players have ever played more than 15 minutes per game at the college level.

And unlike Kentucky (where the recruiting class is filled with Top 10 recruits), many of these guys are more likely to produce down the road. Guys at Greene and Frankamp’s level of the rankings are more likely to become stars as sophomores or juniors than as freshmen. Embiid would appear to be a “sure thing” as a Top 10 recruit, but even the people who are raving about Embiid have described him as a raw talent. They expect him to blossom in 2014-2015, not dominate right away. When you add in the fact that PG Naadir Tharpe struggled with his shot last season, it is clear that Kansas doesn’t have the perfect lineup.

But it might be the perfect lineup for Andrew Wiggins. With so many young players, he will be the clear leader. Much like Texas with Kevin Durant, Kansas players will realize that the team can only achieve its lofty goals by getting Wiggins the ball. And he should be able to carry the team to another Big 12 title.

Of course, Kevin Durant lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament in 2007. And with its physical play, college basketball is not a sport that always showcases transcendent players. And after crunching the numbers, my model projects Kansas as the 8^th best team in the nation.

Vegas will likely give Kansas better odds than what I have below. But Vegas is calculating the odds of winning a title. I am interested in measuring the quality over the full season, including November and December when Kansas’ young players will struggle with the adjustment to the college game. The model concludes that with Bill Self at the helm, Kansas will have an elite defense. He is the best in the business at getting new players to commit on that end of the court. But with so many young players, there will be offensive mistakes. Players will take bad shots. Players will commit silly turnovers. And the model projects Kansas’s offensive efficiency to be worse than some of the other elite teams.

The addition of Andrew Wiggins isn’t the only thing to shake up my model’s Top 25 since the end of April. Yesterday I documented how the addition of Eli Carter moves Florida up to the Top 3 in my model. And I wrote about how the loss of Trae Golden dropped Tennessee out of the Top 25. But here are some details on some other teams that have changed since my late April update.

Rest of Top 25:

11.Wisconsin

12.Virginia

13.Ohio St.

14.Iowa

15.Connecticut

16.Georgetown

17.Syracuse

18.UCLA

19.New Mexico

20.Marquette

21.Gonzaga

22.VCU

23.Memphis

24.Baylor

25.Pittsburgh

Into the Top 25

Memphis continues to be one of the bigger movers in the rankings. When I first ran the projections model in early April, I assumed Memphis would have Tarik Black, Shaq Goodwin, and Top 40 recruits Austin Nichols and Kuran Iverson in the front-court. And the model projected Memphis at 16^th nationally. But then Tarik Black transferred, and that had multiple consequences. First, Nichols and Iverson had slightly lower expectations than Black, who was an efficient player for three years with the Tigers. With Black gone, Nichols and Iverson would each have to play more minutes. And second, it became more likely that Memphis would have to give some backup front-court minutes to a player like HippolyteTsafack. Tsafack was not a Top 100 recruit out of high school and has had multiple knee injuries limiting him to less than 20 total games in his career. Both these factors lowered the projected offense and defense for the Tigers.

When I re-ran my model (without Black and Antonio Barton who also transferred,) Memphis fell to 29^th. But when Memphis added George Washington forward and graduate school transfer David Pellom and Top 100 high school recruit Dominic Woodson, the Tigers immediately upgraded their front-court depth and the model moved Memphis back up to 23rd.

Meanwhile, guard Allerik Freeman was one of the only uncommitted Top 100 high school recruits at the end of April. He recently committed to Baylor. Baylor guard Deuce Bello (who struggled mightily last season posting an ORtg of 86) saw the writing on the wall with Freeman coming in, and elected to transfer. The upgrade from Bello to Freeman moved Baylor from 28^th to 24^th in my model. Even though the model remains skeptical of Baylor head coach Scott Drew, the Bears have reached the point where even an inconsistent coach should have Top 25 expectations.

In my initial Top 25 and post NBA early entry Top 25, I have profiled all of the other Top 25 teams, but I haven’t discussed Baylor yet, so allow me to do that here:

Baylor’s front court remains one of the strongest in the nation with Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson. But the team also welcomes back rising sophomore Ricardo Gathers who was seriously under-utilized last year and could easily become a star in his own right. And prized forward recruit Dominic Woodson should also provide solid post minutes off the bench.

The biggest question is the point guard position. And while no single player can replace Pierre Jackson, Baylor does have three fairly nice options. First, even though Gary Franklin hasn’t been efficient throughout his career, he was a Top 100 recruit out of high school and remains a high potential player. Second, JUCO transfer Kenny Chery should be steady, even if he doesn’t dominate. And third, Brady Heslip may be able to provide some minutes at the position. Heslip may not be able to create much, but paired with a player like Freeman in the back-court, he could certainly be counted on for basic ball-handling duties. Throw in prized recruit Ishmail Wainwright and the possible late development of LJ Rose (a highly ranked high school player who still has high potential), and the model can no longer keep Baylor out of the Top 25.

Moving Up

Recently VCU added Florida St. graduate transfer Terrance Shannon. Shannon was not super-efficient at FSU, but the step down in completion should help some. And he makes a difference for VCU because Jarred Guest and Justin Tuoyo were not impressive last year. In net, VCU improves from 24^th to 22nd with Shannon replacing Tuoyo who elected to transfer.

I’ve seen experts write how the addition of DeAndre Kane could have made Pittsburgh an NCAA tournament team, suggesting they are closer to 45^th. But the tempo free numbers love James Robinson, Lamar Patterson, and Talib Zanna. That said, I believe you can make a case that the tempo free numbers are wrong here. Kenpom.com may have had Pittsburgh 11^th last season, but they only received an 8-seed in the NCAA tournament. And even though Pitt finished 12-6 in the Big East last year which made all of their numbers look good, they didn’t really beat quality teams late in the year to justify a strong seed.  For example, Pitt’s big win at Georgetown which helped inflate their margin-of-victory numbers came early in the conference season before Georgetown figured out its offense. I understand why the numbers like Pitt, but I also understand why most experts are skeptical of their inclusion in the Top 25 at this point.

The team that should have “could” make the tournament attached to it is Oregon. While adding graduate school transfer Mike Moser improves the Ducks expectations substantially, they still seem to be missing the pieces they need to be a winning team in the Pac-12. I will have more to say about Oregon and the Pac-12 in a future week.

The Pac-12 has been suffering through a long dark period. The Big Ten has been dominant (at least in the pre-conference schedule) for the last few years. Should we expect a change this year? Is the Pac-12’s slump over? Is the Big Ten’s boom about to come to an end? Let’s take a quick look at some basic roster data and see if we can uncover any trends.

Part of predicting the season is noting the number of elite high school prospects on each roster. Not only are these players more likely to play well as freshmen, but they are also more likely to breakout later in their career. Recall, for example, Michael Snaer of Florida St. Snaer was a former Top 20 recruit, and while it took him three seasons, he broke out in a big way in 2011-12. After adding up the numbers…

- The Big East has the most former RSCI Top 100 prospects on rosters heading into the season with 58.

- But the Big East has more teams, and the Big East has only 3.9 elite recruits per team. The ACC has the most former Top 100 recruits per team with 4.6 per team.

- But James McAdoo is the only former Top 10 prospect in the ACC this season. That seems like an unprecedented lack of super-elite talent for the conference. If you want super elite talent, you probably want to watch the SEC, assuming everyone is declared academically eligible. John Calipari never lets us down on the recruiting trail.

- The SEC, however, is only welcoming ten Top 100 freshmen this year as a whole. Even the Big Ten, the land of typically poor recruiting, is welcoming more Top 100 freshmen than the SEC this season. And yes, the slumping Pac-12 brings in quite a few elite recruits this year.

The next table isn’t really roster data, but it does reflect some of my preliminary projections about playing time.

- The ACC is going to be the youngest conference in the nation this year, according to my projections.

- The Big East has a startlingly low number of key seniors on rosters this year.

- As usual, the MWC and A10 have more mature rosters. They lose fewer players to the NBA and that helps the top MWC and A10 teams compete, even without a plethora of blue chip talent.

The Pac-12 is getting older in a hurry, thanks in no small part to an influx of transfers. Note that your transfer numbers may vary slightly. I’m excluding transfer walk-ons and a few JUCOs who seem unlikely to play in the next table.

The transfer table doesn’t mean the Pac-12 has suddenly become the conference of transfers. This is all a natural consequence of recent league history. The Pac-12 teams have struggled the last few years making those teams particularly attractive places for transfers to matriculate. If you want to transfer and PLAY in an elite league, you would have chosen the Pac-12 too.  On the other hand, the Big Ten has been on an upswing and few coaches have needed to dip into the JUCO ranks as a quick fix. Deverell Biggs of Nebraska is currently the only incoming JUCO player projected for the Big Ten this year.

Overall, the Pac-12 was a depleted league, but it is adding a number of impact freshmen and key transfers this year. The days of the league failing to field a Top 25 team are over. As for the Big Ten, the jury is still out. The teams at the top still have plenty of talent, but programs like Purdue could be in for a bit of a slip without an influx of can’t miss players coming in.

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The Versatility of Louisville, and the Homogeneity of the Big Ten

I wasn’t shocked that Michigan St. lost to Louisville in the Sweet Sixteen, but I was shocked that the game wasn’t competitive. It was somewhat predictable that Michigan St. would struggle with Louisville’s pressure and turn the ball over, but it was very surprising that the Spartans were unable to exert their will on the interior. Michigan St. forwards Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix have improved dramatically this season, and I fully expected one of them to be the most physical player on the floor. Instead, they combined for 3 of 10 shooting, and were a non-factor. As I noted when the tournament started, Michigan St. had played better against NCAA tournament teams than anyone in the country. But on this night, they looked unprepared for what Louisville threw at them.

There were a number of stories this week about how Michigan St. studies more game-tape than anyone in the NCAA tournament. (I’m not sure whether that’s true. I have also heard that Buzz Williams is relentless in his game preparation.) But as the game unfolded, I began to ask myself what Michigan St. would have learned in their film study. Who are the Louisville Cardinal this year? Were they a team that depended on Peyton Siva? He struggled and they played well anyway. Which lineup should you expect? Louisville players have been in and out of the lineup this year due to injury.  For example, Wayne Blackshear has been back from injury and while he has been playing minimal minutes, you had to prepare like he would be a factor in the game. Plus who do you guard on the perimeter? Louisville players aren’t afraid to take deep shots, even if they aren’t great shooters. Pitino has coached his players to never be afraid to take an open three. And right on cue the enigmatic Jared Swopshire, who had made just three 3’s on the season, made two buckets from beyond the arc. Kyle Kuric was shut down, but Swopshire’s shots were daggers. Sometimes all the film study in the world can’t prepare you for a team that has an amoeba of an identity.

One of the refrain’s from Rick Pitino the last few years is how valuable it is to play in the Big East. A lot of people hate the mega-conference and its lack of repeated rivalries. Most of the time, you only play an opponent once on the season. But as Pitino has said on numerous occasions, by playing more teams, you see more differences in styles. And he truly believes those differences in styles prepare you for post-season play. Syracuse plays a dangerous zone and punishes you in transition. Marquette is relentless taking the ball to the basket and drawing fouls. Georgetown will punish you with back-cuts if you aren’t disciplined. But even if you are disciplined, Notre Dame will punish you by making shots late in the shot clock. West Virginia tries to crush you on the offensive glass with extreme physicality. Cincinnati uses defensive ball pressure to take you out of your half-court sets. Seton Hall is incredibly effective at grabbing steals. UConn is fantastic at blocking shots. DePaul plays at such a fast-pace that they hope you get rattled. South Florida plays at a snail’s pace and hopes you can’t get any momentum.

And as Louisville showed in the Big East tournament, they are quite content to play any of these styles. They ran with Marquette and won, and played a brutal defensive game with Cincinnati and won. After over 30 years, there isn’t a style Pitino is afraid to play. Yes, Michigan St. had a physical imposing front line. But Louisville had seen that before. And all Gorgui Dieng did was respond with 7 blocks on the interior.

Conversely Michigan St. has not exactly seen a lot of full-court pressure in the Big Ten this year. (And I’m not just talking about picking players up full-court, I’m talking about players jumping out on passes near half-court.) Louisville forced a couple of key turnovers halfway through the second half that brought the margin to 11 points and those full-court opportunities essentially sealed the game.

And this is exactly why the news that Shaka Smart is not coming to Illinois should be disappointing to Big Ten fans. For better or worse, an equilibrium has been reached in the Big Ten. To win, you have to play relentless man-to-man defense and always get back in transition. But since almost every team does that, the best offensive strategy is to conserve possessions and embrace a perimeter-oriented-attack.

Slow pace, man-to-man defense, lots of jump shots, few turnovers – almost every Big Ten team embraces a significant portion of that philosophy. It is a brilliant strategy. It helped the Big Ten to the top RPI in the nation this year, and when executed well, it is almost unstoppable.

But is there not value in variety? Would Michigan St. not benefit from seeing a Mike Anderson or Shaka Smart led team a couple of times a year? Would the Spartans not benefit from seeing a team employ a full-time zone defense? Thank goodness that Iowa and Indiana have embraced a faster pace, but the Big Ten desperately needs more variety.

You might assume that as an Illinois alumni, that I am sad that Shaka Smart passed on the Illini offer. I’m not sure that’s true. I’m not sure full-court pressure would work in a conference where Matt Painter, Bo Ryan, and Bill Carmody have taken turnover free basketball to another level. But basketball is at its best when there are differences in styles. And the Big Ten desperately needs a few different looks. It might not have swung the Michigan St. vs Louisville game.  Perhaps Louisville just played better. But in the long-run, I think it matters.

(For the record, my personal choice for the Illinois job would be BYU’s Dave Rose, but I haven’t heard him mentioned anywhere and I don’t believe he is a likely candidate.)

Badger Heartbreak

Wisconsin was clearly more prepared for Syracuse’s zone defense than Vanderbilt’s zone defense last week, but an elite zone defense will always throw surprises at you. At least twice the Badgers had the ball in the corner and thought they had an open post feed. But they weren’t aware that in that situation the Syracuse defender on the opposite side of the court cheats and jumps the post-man. Wisconsin didn’t have a ton of turnovers in the game, but the ones they had hurt.

Jim Boeheim clearly believes that no team can stay hot from three point range which is why you will never shoot Syracuse out of a zone. Once or twice a year it usually backfires, (I am recalling the Seton Hall game last year), but not very often. And even though Wisconsin hit 14 threes in the game, they didn’t exactly blow the game open with their hot shooting. You knew they would eventually need a few inside baskets to win, and those just weren’t forthcoming. Wisconsin had just 10 points in the paint in the game, and while they had a fabulous chance to win, Boeheim’s gamble paid off. You will rarely beat the Orange if you only score 10 points in the paint.

Syracuse had to welcome the return of CJ Fair’s offensive game in the victory. Fair had been struggling from the field, and if he did not key a first half run where Syracuse scored 7 FGs in a row, the Orange would not have advanced.

Ohio St. vs Cincinnati

Against Texas in the first round, Cincinnati attacked with its ball pressure immediately. They knew they could rattle the young Texas guards and they pounced. But sometimes Mick Cronin is hesitant to be aggressive early. Against Georgetown in the Big East tournament he was concerned about Georgetown’s passing ability and he laid back in the first half. But he dialed up his ball-pressure in the second half and Cincinnati rallied to beat the Hoyas in double overtime.

And on Thursday, Cronin appeared to utilize that delayed pressure strategy again. Cincinnati came out fairly passive in the first half and fell behind. But the team started jumping passing lanes early in the second half and within moments an 8 point deficit was a 3 point lead.

But that’s when Aaron Craft took over. There has been some talk lately that Aaron Craft is a little over-rated. Big Ten coaches say there are other quality defenders and Craft somehow got this inflated defensive reputation. But with Cincinnati pressuring the ball, he showed he could do it as well as anyone in the country. Craft personally grabbed 6 steals, and the Buckeyes forced 18 turnovers while blowing the game open. The Buckeyes beat the Bearcats at their own game.

Marquette vs Florida

Marquette was not a great shooting team this year, but they have been fabulous at getting into the lane and drawing fouls. And as things worked out, Florida turned out to be a horrible matchup. First, the Gators had the quickness to keep Marquette’s best players in front of them. Marquette got a few inside looks, but the team was forced to take too many jump shots, and they simply couldn't make them.

Second, the Gators are rarely going to foul you and give you free throws. And the Golden Eagles got to the line just 18 times in the game. For a team that lives at the free throw line, that wasn’t enough. Marquette shot horribly and could not overcome the poor shooting by getting to the line.

Expected Wins in NCAA Tournament

Own: If you lose in the Sweet Sixteen, your expected wins go to two. If you win, your expected wins go up.

Other: Other team’s outcomes can also impact your expected wins.

The big winner on Thursday might have been Kentucky.  Their potential Final Four opponent will now either be a Florida team that they’ve defeated three times this season or a Louisville team they beat in December. Michigan St. wasn’t unstoppable, but they seemed like a more likely candidate to give the Wildcats problems in New Orleans. But if Michigan St. really was dangerous, Florida gains the most from the “Other” games.

I actually find it fairly impressive that Kentucky still has the second most expected wins given that they are still in the Sweet Sixteen while a team like Syracuse has already advanced to the Elite Eight.  But Syracuse’s half (the right side of the bracket) is loaded with elite teams.