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Comparing The Conferences

The Pac-12 has been suffering through a long dark period. The Big Ten has been dominant (at least in the pre-conference schedule) for the last few years. Should we expect a change this year? Is the Pac-12’s slump over? Is the Big Ten’s boom about to come to an end? Let’s take a quick look at some basic roster data and see if we can uncover any trends.

Part of predicting the season is noting the number of elite high school prospects on each roster. Not only are these players more likely to play well as freshmen, but they are also more likely to breakout later in their career. Recall, for example, Michael Snaer of Florida St. Snaer was a former Top 20 recruit, and while it took him three seasons, he broke out in a big way in 2011-12. After adding up the numbers…

- The Big East has the most former RSCI Top 100 prospects on rosters heading into the season with 58.

- But the Big East has more teams, and the Big East has only 3.9 elite recruits per team. The ACC has the most former Top 100 recruits per team with 4.6 per team.

- But James McAdoo is the only former Top 10 prospect in the ACC this season. That seems like an unprecedented lack of super-elite talent for the conference. If you want super elite talent, you probably want to watch the SEC, assuming everyone is declared academically eligible. John Calipari never lets us down on the recruiting trail.

- The SEC, however, is only welcoming ten Top 100 freshmen this year as a whole. Even the Big Ten, the land of typically poor recruiting, is welcoming more Top 100 freshmen than the SEC this season. And yes, the slumping Pac-12 brings in quite a few elite recruits this year.

Conf

T10

T100

T100 Fr

ACC

1

55

22

BE

1

58

17

SEC

4

49

10

B10

1

40

15

B12

3

33

11

P12

3

37

15

MWC

1

15

5

A10

0

11

3

The next table isn’t really roster data, but it does reflect some of my preliminary projections about playing time.

- The ACC is going to be the youngest conference in the nation this year, according to my projections.

- The Big East has a startlingly low number of key seniors on rosters this year.

- As usual, the MWC and A10 have more mature rosters. They lose fewer players to the NBA and that helps the top MWC and A10 teams compete, even without a plethora of blue chip talent.

Class

Sr%

Jr%

So%

Fr%

MWC

35%

30%

17%

17%

A10

33%

27%

19%

21%

P12

28%

32%

18%

22%

B12

32%

19%

26%

23%

BE

22%

32%

27%

19%

B10

27%

26%

23%

24%

SEC

25%

28%

24%

22%

ACC

25%

22%

23%

31%

The Pac-12 is getting older in a hurry, thanks in no small part to an influx of transfers. Note that your transfer numbers may vary slightly. I’m excluding transfer walk-ons and a few JUCOs who seem unlikely to play in the next table.

Incoming Transfers

D1

JUCO+

P12

15

8

SEC

10

11

BE

14

6

MWC

7

5

B12

7

5

A10

8

3

ACC

3

3

B10

5

1

The transfer table doesn’t mean the Pac-12 has suddenly become the conference of transfers. This is all a natural consequence of recent league history. The Pac-12 teams have struggled the last few years making those teams particularly attractive places for transfers to matriculate. If you want to transfer and PLAY in an elite league, you would have chosen the Pac-12 too.  On the other hand, the Big Ten has been on an upswing and few coaches have needed to dip into the JUCO ranks as a quick fix. Deverell Biggs of Nebraska is currently the only incoming JUCO player projected for the Big Ten this year.

Overall, the Pac-12 was a depleted league, but it is adding a number of impact freshmen and key transfers this year. The days of the league failing to field a Top 25 team are over. As for the Big Ten, the jury is still out. The teams at the top still have plenty of talent, but programs like Purdue could be in for a bit of a slip without an influx of can’t miss players coming in.

Team-By-Team Gold Medal Winners

Since the United States began to allow professional players on their Olympic roster for the 1992 Games, there have been 63 NBA players to win Gold Medals. The United States has won the Gold Medal in five of the six Olympics, accounting for 60 of the players, while there were three NBA players on Argentina when they won in 2004.

The following team-by-team list tallies the Gold Medal winners at the time of their respective games.

The Utah Jazz have won the most Gold Medals with six, followed by the Thunder/Sonics with five, Bulls, Lakers, Heat and Knicks with four.

The Bobcats, Grizzlies, 76ers and Wizards have yet to have a player win a Gold Medal.

Atlanta Hawks (0)

Boston Celtics (1): Larry Bird (92)

Brooklyn Nets (1): Deron Williams (12)

Charlotte Bobcats (0)

Chicago Bulls (4): Michael Jordan (92), Scottie Pippen (92), Scottie Pippen (96), Andres Nocioni (04)

Cleveland Cavaliers (1): LeBron James (08)

Dallas Mavericks (1): Jason Kidd (08)

Denver Nuggets (3): Antonio McDyess (00), Carmelo Anthony (08), Andre Iguodala (12)

Detroit Pistons (3): Grant Hill (96), Carlos Delfino (04), Tayshaun Prince (08)

Golden State Warriors (1): Chris Mullin (92)

Houston Rockets (1): Hakeem Olajuwon (96)

Indiana Pacers (1): Reggie Miller (96)

Los Angeles Clippers (1): Chris Paul (12)

Los Angeles Lakers (4): Magic Johnson (92), Shaquille O’Neal (96), Kobe Bryant (08), Kobe Bryant (12)

Memphis Grizzlies (1): Shareef Abdur-Rahim (00)

Miami Heat (4): Tim Hardaway (00), Alonzo Mourning (00), Dwyane Wade (08), LeBron James (12)

Milwaukee Bucks (2): Ray Allen (00), Michael Redd (08)

Minnesota Timberwolves (3): Christian Laettner (92), Kevin Garnett (00), Kevin Love (12)

New Orleans Hornets (2): Chris Paul (08), Anthony Davis (12)

New York Knicks (4): Patrick Ewing (92), Allan Houston (00), Carmelo Anthony (12), Tyson Chandler (12)

Oklahoma City Thunder/Seattle Super Sonics (6): Gary Payton (96), Vin Baker (00), Gary Payton (00), Kevin Durant (12), James Harden (12), Russell Westbrook (12)

Orlando Magic: Dwight Howard (08)

Philadelphia 76ers (0): (Iguodala was member of 76ers until semifinals of 12 Olympics)

Phoenix Suns (3): Charles Barkley (92), Charles Barkley (96), Jason Kidd (00)

Portland Trail Blazers (2): Clyde Drexler (92), Steve Smith (00)

Sacramento Kings (1): Mitch Richmond (96)

San Antonio Spurs (3): David Robinson (92), David Robinson (96), Manu Ginobili (04)

Toronto Raptors (2): Vince Carter (00), Chris Bosh (08)

Utah Jazz (6): Karl Malone (92), John Stockton (92), Karl Malone (96), John Stockton (96), Carlos Boozer (08), Deron Williams (08)

Washington Wizards (0) 

Colleges

The below list accounts only for Olympic Gold Medals since 1992.

Duke and UCLA have had three separate Gold Medalists, while Cal has had three by counting Jason Kidd’s two wins.

Alabama: Antonio McDyess (00)

Arizona: Andre Iguodala (12)

Arizona State: James Harden (12)

Auburn: Charles Barkley (92), Charles Barkley (96)

California: Shareef Abdur-Rahim (00), Jason Kidd (00), Jason Kidd (08)

Central Arkansas: Scottie Pippen (92), Scottie Pippen (96)

Connecticut: Ray Allen (00)

Duke: Christian Laettner (92), Grant Hill (96), Carlos Boozer (08)

Indiana State: Larry Bird (92)

Georgetown: Patrick Ewing (92), Alonzo Mourning (00)

Gonzaga: John Stockton (92), John Stockton (96)

Hartford: Vin Baker (00)

Houston: Clyde Drexler (92), Hakeem Olajuwon (96)

Kansas State: Mitch Richmond (96)

Kentucky: Tayshaun Prince (08), Anthony Davis (12)

Illinois: Deron Williams (08), Deron Williams (12)

LSU: Shaquille O’Neal (96)

Louisiana Tech: Karl Malone (92), Karl Malone (96)

Marquette: Dwyane Wade (08)

Memphis: Penny Hardaway (96)

Michigan State: Magic Johnson (92), Steve Smith (00)

Navy: David Robinson (92), David Robinson (96)

North Carolina: Michael Jordan (92), Vince Carter (00)

No College: Kevin Garnett (00), Kobe Bryant (08), Dwight Howard (08), LeBron James (08), Kobe Bryant (12), Tyson Chandler (12), LeBron James (12)

Ohio State: Michael Redd (08)

Oregon State: Gary Payton (96), Gary Payton (00)

St. John’s: Chris Mullin (92)

Syracuse: Carmelo Anthony (08), Carmelo Anthony (12)

Temple: Pepe Sanchez (04)

Tennessee: Allan Houston (00)

Texas: Kevin Durant (12)

UCLA: Reggie Miller (96), Kevin Love (12), Russell Westbrook (12)

UTEP: Tim Hardaway (00)

Wake Forest: Chris Paul (08), Chris Paul (12)

2012 SEC Power Rankings

The dominance of Kentucky was evident enough simply by watching five minutes of any game, with the talent and athleticism gap being massive. A team built around John Calipari’s bench players is probably a Sweet 16 team on its own. 

But the purely statistical, objective outlook also bears that out. Kentucky was the only team in college basketball to exceed an average FIC differential over 30.0, a difficult feat.

In order to determine our team rankings, we calculate the difference between a team's own FIC per game and their opponents' FIC for the entire conference season.

The FIC is a single statistical measurement that encompasses things such as scoring efficiency, rebounding, blocked shots, etc. Its purpose is to combine the box score into one statistic, both on a team level and for players.

1. Kentucky: 31.97  
2. Vanderbilt: 9.01  
3. Alabama: 6.63  
4. Florida: 6.13  
5. Tennessee: 3.75  
6. Mississippi State: -0.76  
7. Ole Miss: -1.39  
8. Georgia: -5.72  
9. LSU: -5.84  
10. Auburn: -9.87  
11. Arkansas: -12.24  
12. South Carolina: -21.67

The SECís Most Prolific Offensive Players

When you evaluate breakout players, donít just look at the per-game totals. Look at why the players improved. And when they are more efficient and more aggressive, give them the extra praise they deserve.

Freshmen Bring Hope

Teams that play a lot of freshmen are the most likely to improve as the season goes on, while those with a lot of experience are more likely to plateau. In this piece, we examine freshmen minutes for every major school in the country.

SEC Prospect Watch List

The SEC has three of the top-four freshmen in the country in Anthony Davis, Michael Gilchrist and Bradley Beal to go with sophomores Patric Young and Terrence Jones.

Bounce Back Candidates

A sudden drop in production can be a pure statistical outlier and a recovery could do wonders for their team's performances this season. We outline a few candidates for the 11-12 college basketball season.

Talent Squandered: College Basketball's Ultimate Underachieving Teams Since 2003

Georgia Tech in 2003 with Chris Bosh, Michigan State in 2006 with Shannon Brown and Paul Davis, Connecticut in 2010 one year before winning the championship and a 2010 North Carolina team with Ed Davis, John Henson and a host of other top recruits.

Power Rankings For The Alumni Games

It is hard to imagine a more exciting barnstorming series than a tournament featuring NBA players suiting up again for their college.
 

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