Oral Roberts went 17-1 in regular season play, but were a surprisingly distant second in the statistical rankings. 

In order to determine our team rankings, we calculate the difference between a team's own FIC per game and their opponents' FIC for the entire conference season.

The FIC is a single statistical measurement that encompasses things such as scoring efficiency, rebounding, blocked shots, etc. Its purpose is to combine the box score into one statistic, both on a team level and for players.

1. South Dakota State: 17.79  
2. Oral Roberts: 13.21  
3. Oakland: 3.14  
4. North Dakota State: 2.89  
5. Western Illinois: 2.27  
6. Southern Utah: 2.26  
7. IUPUI: -1.96  
8. IPFW: -10.82  
9. South Dakota: -12.86  
10. Missouri-Kansas City: -15.92

Gus Johnson’s Mom

Gus Johnson, “You can see every game on four different networks. I was talking to my mother this morning and she said, ‘I don’t know where to start’. I said, ‘Mom, you should start with my game, I’m your son.’”

Len Elmore, “Yeah, but if there is a better game someplace else, son.”

Johnson, “Exactly. That’s what she said! How did you know?”

Irving Returns

Duke’s first round game was must-watch TV, if for no other reason than to see the return of Kyrie Irving. As I noted at the end of January, Duke has not performed substantially worse without their star point-guard. But after January, Duke’s performance did dip slightly. Thus on the full season Duke was slightly worse without Irving in the lineup.

How did the possible first overall pick in the NBA draft do in his return to action? In the first half, there was not a lot to talk about. Irving drove the lane and was called for an offensive foul. He also put up a circus shot under the basket and fell to the ground and scraped his knee. (You could visibly see the skin was peeled off on the sideline.) He eventually got to the free throw line for two shots, but the first half was nothing to write home about.

In the second half, Irving showed a couple of flashes of his athleticism. He took a defensive rebound coast-to-coast for a lay-up. And he stole an inbounds pass and got a transition bucket. Then in the final minutes, in complete garbage time, he hit a couple of open three pointers.

The blowout game was a perfect chance for Irving to get his game legs back. But I think he may be limited to bench duty in the upcoming games. Most of what he did was predicated on fast-break baskets and chaos. He did very little in the half-court to run the offense or set-up for his teammates, and I doubt Mike Krzyzewski is going to use him in crunch time any time soon. On the other hand, he looks completely healthy, and completely explosive, and there is no reason he cannot be a difference maker as the tournament progresses.

Other Games

George Mason vs Villanova was our first nail-biter of the day. George Mason had trailed most of the day, but Mike Morrison’s put-back dunk gave Mason a lead in the final minute. Then on the other end, Villanova’s Corey Fisher was fouled on a three point attempt and calmly sank three free throws to take a one-point lead back for Nova. And that’s when Luke Hancock hit the shot of the day. After faking a drive, Hancock hit a step-back three pointer to give his team the lead. On the other end, Corey Stokes had a shot hit the side of the backboard, and a breakaway George Mason dunk ended the game.

After the game, Jim Larranaga was asked how his team came back. “I have no idea. At one point, I drew up a play in the huddle, and the players didn’t even run the play I drew up.”

Hidden Greatness: At some point in the second half, George Mason’s Johnny Williams hit one of the most ridiculous finger-roll jumpers you will ever see. He caught the ball in the corner, tried to back his man down, and then simply flipped the ball up underhand from 10 feet away for a bucket to pull George Mason within one-point. Sometimes winning takes a little luck.

Michigan crushed Tennessee by 30 today. Michigan’s win was the largest in the 8/9 game in the 64-team-era and the first time a team won an NCAA tournament game without shooting a free throw. I labeled three teams as “must-avoid” due to late season collapses: Tennessee, Missouri, and Villanova. And all three blew leads and lost in the opening round.

One team I did not recommend avoiding was Illinois. Though I did not pick them in my personal bracket, I noted that the Illini were not playing terrible basketball despite the late season slide.  Illinois was simply running into a number of good Big Ten teams and losing narrowly.  And indeed, when facing a team that allowed some fast-break opportunities, the Illini were happy to get out and run.  Seeing a Big Ten team lead a MWC team in fast-break points was a bit of a shock, but that was exactly how Illinois beat UNLV.

On the flip side, I noted that Georgetown’s late season swoon was more than just Chris Wright.  In order to lose by 18 to a VCU team that was not dominant during the regular season, it took a total team effort.  Wright, Freeman, and Clark, (the DC3 of Georgetown sharp-shooting guards) were a combined 0-16 from three point range.  And were it not for a season high 26 from Hollis Thompson, Georgetown’s loss would have been even more lopsided.

Chris Wright and Kyrie Irving were not the only players to return on Friday. Florida St.’s Chris Singleton also returned to the court in the Seminole’s win. While Singleton was clearly moving well on the court, and seemed to be 100%, Leonard Hamilton limited him to just 16 minutes in his return. Singleton usually fills the defensive stat sheet, but he only had one block and one steal in his limited minutes. But his teammates stepped up with Florida St. earning 10 total blocks in the game. The loss broke Texas A&M’s NCAA streak. The Aggies had won a first round game in five straight NCAA tournaments.

Finally, Memphis which had been 13-1 in games decided by 5 points or less, finally lost a close one, but it was not without some controversy. With 30 seconds left and Arizona holding the ball, Memphis appeared to tie up the Arizona defender. But instead of the possession arrow giving the ball to Memphis, Arizona was granted a time-out. That extra possession could have been the difference. But ultimately Arizona earned the victory with a huge block by the Pac-10 player of the year, Derrick Williams.

Updated Expectations

If you are wondering what the various columns mean, click here.

Expected Wins in Field of 64

VCU did not expect to win many games in the field of 64, but by beating Georgetown (own game), they upped their expected number of wins by nearly one whole game.

Georgetown’s loss also improved Purdue’s outlook (other games).

Overall, the Big Ten had a huge day on Thursday. Not only did the conference go 4-0, the teams won by very impressive margins. This improved each teams ranking and it even improved Wisconsin’s ranking despite the fact that Wisconsin is idle (see performance). Because Wisconsin had beaten Michigan and Illinois, they now look better.

Texas is an interesting case. While they beat a good Oakland team which improved their expected wins (own games), they saw Duke and Arizona advance which hurt their odds (other games) and they won by a very small margin (performance). On net, the expectations for Tristan Thompson and Texas did not increase very much at all.

The improvement in rankings for the Big Ten teams led to a relative decrease in expectations for various future opponents.  So Kansas (which may face Illinois and Purdue), Kentucky (which may face Ohio St.) and Pittsburgh (which may face Wisconsin), now look a little worse.

Georgetown was the day’s biggest loser, bowing out in the first round, when they at least had some possibility of advancing to the Sweet Sixteen.

The following players have had a game FIC of 28.1 or better during the 10-11 season, which typically means the player scored a ton of points efficiently, plus had a good floor game in terms of assists, rebounds, blocks and steals.

Unsurprisingly, Jared Sullinger. Kemba Walker and Jimmer Fredette appear on this list, with the first two having multiple games apiece. Also appearing twice are Thomas Coleman of North Carolina A&T, Charles Jenkins of Hofstra and Chris Singleton of Florida State.

Sullinger has the highest single FIC game, coming against IUPUI when he scored 40 points to go with 13 boards.

During the 09-10 season, Fredette had the highest single FIC game when he scored 49 points at
Arizona.

Back in 08-09, Ryan Toolson had the highest single FIC game with 41.9. Blake Griffin had two of the top-six.

Top FIC Games Of 10-11 Season
Keith Brunson, Oakland, 11/27
Will Clynurn, Utah, 12/7
Thomas Coleman, North Carolina A&T, 1/22
Thomas Coleman, North Carolina A&T, 12/4
D.J. Cooper, Ohio, 12/18
Robert Covington, Tennessee State, 1/8
Jae Crowder, Marquette, 1/1
Lenny Daniel, Cal State Northridge, 12/7
LaceDarius Dunn, Baylor, 1/4
Cliff Ederaine, Eastern Washington, 12/4
Kenneth Faried, Morehead State, 11/12
Trey Finn, Arkansas State, 1/1
John Flowers, West Virginia, 1/13
Jimmer Fredette, BYU, 1/11
Mike Glover, Iona, 12/3
Steven Gray, Gonzaga, 11/12
Adnan Hodzic, Lipscomb, 11/18
Eli Holman, Detroit, 11/26
Tyler Honeycutt, UCLA, 12/2
Ken Horton, Central Connecticut State, 11/15
Mike James, Lamar, 1/4
Charles Jenkins, Hofstra, 11/13
Charles Jenkins, Hofstra, 12/8
Orlando Johnson, UC Santa Barbara, 11/20
Terrence Jones, Kentucky, 11/22
Arsalan Kazemi, Rice, 1/5
Kenny Lawson, Creighton, 12/11
Mickey McConnell, Saint Mary's, 11/21
Vlad Moldoveanu, American, 1/8
Darren Moore, UC Irvine, 12/1
Mike Muscala, Bucknell, 1/12
Anthony Nelson, Niagara, 1/9
Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure, 12/18
Adrian Oliver, San Jose State, 12/22
Brian Qvale, Montana, 12/15
Justin Robinson, Rider, 12/15
Joey Rodriguez, Virginia Commonwealth, 11/12
Ryan Rossiter, Siena, 11/20
Morgan Sabia, Hartford, 1/3
Chris Singleton, Florida State, 11/14
Chris Singleton, Florida State, 11/16
Nolan Smith, Duke, 12/29
Jared Sullinger, Ohio State, 12/9
Jared Sullinger, Ohio State, 12/18
Malcolm Thomas, San Diego State, 12/13
Brian Voelkel, Vermont, 12/12
Kemba Walker, Connecticut, 12/3
Kemba Walker, Connecticut, 11/17
Kevin Winford, Eastern Washington, 12/4
Wesley Witherspoon, Memphis, 12/30

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