Last week VCU joined the A10 which provided the perfect opportunity to present my “way-too-early” projections for the A10 and CUSA. But what should be the lead for a column on the MVC and WCC?

I thought about writing about how the Missouri Valley Conference keeps missing out. VCU stole Wichita St.’s thunder in the NCAA tournament and the A10 added Butler before the MVC even contemplated expansion. I thought about writing about how the West Coast Conference has been strictly boring this off-season. There have been zero coaching changes, and no team shuffling (Pacific won’t join until next year). And as great as he looked in his debut, BYU’s Matt Carlino is no Jimmer Fredette. Still nothing inspired me.

Then I ran into Luke Winn’s Tuesday column on conference realignment. The first thing that struck me is how the WCC is now a Top 10 conference. The eight teams in the WCC in 2010-2011 had a 10-year Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) of 0.5346. The conference added BYU with a 10-year PWP of 0.8266 and Pacific with a 10-year PWP of 0.5704. Combined the new 10 team 10-year PWP will be 0.5674 which would put the league behind the A10 but firmly in the Top 10 of college conferences. And the MVC was already in the top 10. If you care about college basketball, there is no question you should care about these two leagues.

For an explanation of the column headings, click here. Roster information is updated through May 14^th.

BYU returns a respectable 69% of its possessions from last year, but the Relative Value (RV) column shows that BYU’s returning roster is made up of the least efficient offensive players on the team. Goodbye Noah Hartsock. It was a nice run Charles Abouo. Some people will miss the memories from their Sweet Sixteen run in 2011, but what BYU will really miss is their offensive efficiency. So why does the model still pick BYU for 2^nd in the league? First, Dave Rose gets some lingering credit. Rose has now made the NCAA tournament six straight years and my model accounts for coaching ability.  And BYU also gave a lot of possessions to freshmen last year.

San Diego is my ultimate sleeper team. Fully 47% of the Toreros possessions last season went to freshmen and while that led to some growing pains for Bill Grier’s team, Johnny Dee and Christopher Anderson have the potential to be special players. Dee made 79 threes last season and Anderson got to the free throw line at an elite rate. Combine their perimeter play with the efficient play of Dennis Kramer inside and you have the building blocks for a surprise team. San Diego struggled on the full season last year posting a 13-18 record and posting miserable Margin-of-Victory numbers (MOV). But by the time the WCC season rolled around San Diego was already playing better basketball. The Toreros finished 7-9 in league play and the growth potential for this team remains significant.

Rex Walters seemed like he might be building something at San Francisco, but the team has seen a number of players transfer. Perris Blackwell, Avery Johnson, Khalil Murphy, Justin Raffington, Charles Standifer, and Michael Williams all departed putting the Dons squarely in rebuilding mode. Luckily UCLA transfer De’End Parker should be eligible due to a family medical hardship waiver.

How is Gregg Marshall still at Wichita St.? After taking Winthrop to three straight NCAA tournaments and earning the rare NCAA victory at the Big South school, all he did was turn Wichita St. into a top 10 margin-of-victory team. I am more than a little skeptical that Wichita St. can finish 12-6 in a year in which the team loses 5 key seniors. But Carl Hall and Demetric Williams are back, and the model gives Marshall a ton of credit for building teams. The last three years the Shockers have finished 12-6, 14-4, and 16-2 in the MVC, and that is the track record of an elite coach. But 7 footers like Garrett Stutz don’t grow on trees, and I’m nervous that his defensive presence will be impossible to replace.

The model is very pleased to see Barry Hinson check in at Southern Illinois. It might take some time to rebuild the Salukis, but the former Missouri St. coach has won in this league before and he will win again. It is hard to believe a Saluki team that once dominated the league hasn’t won 7 conference games since 2009. By focusing on defense, Hinson will have Southern Illinois more competitive in his first year.

Speaking of elite coaches, Ben Jacobson is only two years away from his Farokhmanesh moment, and he brings back every rotation player except Johnny Moran this off-season. Northern Iowa will clearly be a factor. But Doug McDermott is back and that is pretty much all you need to know to be excited about Creighton. The Blue Jays will be the favorite even if last year’s defense was a little suspect.

The older I get, the more I see that one of the things I love most about sports is the variety of it, the diversity of it and the CHARACTERS. Men’s tennis is at its best in many years because, for the first time in a long time, the top three or four players all have wildly different styles. The Tim Tebow story was fun on so many levels, but one of those levels was that he was just SO DIFFERENT in how he played — I’d say we are entering a great time for quarterbacks, because Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning and Drew Brees and Michael Vick and Cam Newton and Tebow and others are not really alike at all.

-- Joe Posnanski

As a basketball fan, I’ve never understood the division that exists between fans of the NBA and the NCAA. While the NBA has the best basketball players in the world, March Madness is compelling in its own right and as entertaining as anything that happens on the professional level.

In the NBA, the owners of the 30 franchises consider turning a profit and getting an equal shot at the top players a right, regardless of how well (or how poorly) they run their organization and the respective size of their fan-bases. Since every losing team is a few ping pong balls from the rights to a LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Dwight Howard, personnel determines scheme in the NBA.

In contrast, the vast majority of the 344 Division I programs in college basketball have little chance of ever receiving a commitment from a McDonald’s All-American. But instead of petulantly trying to sabotage the sport in a misguided effort to legislate fairness, schools try many creative ways of leveraging the talents of the players they can recruit. As a result, scheme determines personnel in the NCAA.

At Syracuse, Jim Boeheim has made a Hall of Fame career out of running a contrarian scheme, in his case an aggressive 2-3 zone. The Orange traditionally have rosters full of “1.5’s”, 6’3+ combo guards lacking the quickness to defend elite PG’s and the size to defend SG’s, and “3.5’s”, 6’8+ combo forwards lacking the quickness to defend elite SF’s and the size to defend PF’s. However, because Syracuse never plays man defense, the athletic deficiencies of their players are minimized.

So while nearly every NBA team runs a fairly similar system of isolations, pick-and-rolls and man defense, an incredibly diverse array of styles can be found in the college game. On one end of the spectrum, teams like Missouri play four guards and pressure the ball 94 feet for 48 minutes, on the other, teams like Wisconsin run a deliberate motion offense, trying to minimize the number of possessions and shoot at the very end of the shot-clock.

In the NBA, the players are too good for the “40 Minutes of Hell” system (which Mike Anderson has brought to Missouri and Arkansas in the last few years) to be successful. Like Mike Leach’s bizarre pass-happy offense in college football, Anderson’s system, which he learned as a member of Nolan Richardson’s staff in Arkansas in the 1990’s, has philosophical holes that professional athletes can exploit. Nevertheless, that doesn’t make them any less entertaining on the collegiate level.

And with 68 teams set to compete in the NCAA Tournament, there are a lot more surprises in the college game. Even programs ranked in the top-15 like Murray State have barely been on national TV this season.

We have a pretty good idea of how teams like the Pacers and the 76ers match up with the top of the Eastern Conference but not whether an undersized Murray State squad can handle the size of an elite team from a Power Six conference. It’s an open question how Isaiah Canaan’s speed and athleticism translates outside of the Ohio Valley Conference. Non-conference play in college basketball generally ends in late December, so it’s almost impossible to gauge how younger teams like Texas, Washington and Tennessee who have found their groove in the last two months will fare in March.

In the NBA, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Chicago, Miami and Oklahoma City aren’t three of the final four teams left in the playoffs. In the NCAA, as many as two dozen teams have a legitimate shot at making a run at the Final Four.

Of course, in terms of entertainment, none of this makes the NCAA necessarily better or worse than the NBA, just different. But, as Posnanski writes, there’s something to be said for the concept of “different” in the modern sports world. Basketball fans of all stripes should enjoy March Madness; the NBA will still be here in a few weeks.

My preseason rankings can be found in the November 14^th edition of ESPN the magazine.  But what good are predicted Pythagorean rankings if you do not use them to predict games?  Time to use my tempo free season predictions to predict the early season tournaments.*  I also include links to printable brackets for these tournaments. Don’t wait until March to fill out a bracket, print these out today!

Preseason NIT – Nov 14, 15, 16, 23, and 25

Oklahoma St. has a chance to win the NIT, but Oral Roberts is one of the most dangerous small conference teams in the nation this year, and they have a very good chance to upset Oklahoma St. in the second round. Meanwhile Virginia Tech and George Mason really is a toss-up in the second round of that pod. Syracuse’s four-team pod is far less compelling. The overall strength of the Orange combined with their easy path makes them the prohibitive favorites in the NIT.

Coaches vs Cancer – Nov 17 and 18

Arizona lost an exhibition game this year, and I’ve already spent a lot of words on why I think Texas A&M and Mississippi St. are over-rated. But if I am going to be down on all three teams, I guess that makes this prediction seem pretty equitable. Arizona is the favorite, but not the only team that can win this four-team bracket.

Puerto Rico Tipoff – Nov 17, 18, and 20

Other than Maui, this might be the best preseason tournament in the country this year. If Alabama, Purdue, Temple, and Wichita St. win in round one, the semifinals will be extremely balanced. But there is no guarantee those top four teams will advance. Maryland, Iona, and Colorado may not be good bets to win three games in three days, but they can all pull an upset.

Charleston Classic – Nov 17, 18, and 20

Seton Hall is not that much worse than Northwestern, but Seton Hall’s half of the bracket is much tougher.

Paradise Jam – Nov 18, 19, 20 and 21

Drexel not only has a chance to win the CAA this year, they have a chance to win the Paradise Jam too. But this is Marquette’s event to lose.

Legends Classic – Nov 19 and 21

Head-to-head, Vanderbilt would and should be favored against Texas. But with all apologies to OSU’s Jared Cunningham, Vanderbilt draws a much tougher first round opponent in NC State.

Hall of Fame Tipoff – Nov 19 and 21

Kentucky has a young team, and these odds more closely reflect the odds in March than in November. But on paper, none of these teams comes close to matching the Wildcats.

CBE Classic – Nov 21 and 22

This would have been a much more exciting tournament last year. But with Georgia losing a pair of players to the NBA, and Missouri’s Laurence Bower’s injured, you get these odds. I’ve gone on the record that I think the Pac-12 will still struggle this year.  But if the conference wants to prove me wrong, California can start by winning this event.

Maui Invitational – Nov 21, 22, and 23

Memphis vs Michigan is an outstanding first round match-up in the Maui Invitational. Both teams return a ton of talent, but Michigan had better margin-of-victory numbers last year, and I see them as a slight favorite. (I don’t think people acknowledge how much Joe Jackson struggled last year. While he was great in the CUSA tournament, he was a huge disappointment for much of the season. I was much more impressed with how Tim Hardaway Jr. was able to run John Beilein’s precision offense and become an efficient scorer.) But the bottom line is this: Don’t bet against Duke in November. Not only is Duke the best team, they also get the weakest D1 team in the bracket, Tennessee, in the first round.

Cancun Challenge – Nov 22 and 23

This is another mini-tournament that would have looked a lot better last year. Remember when Richmond was making an NCAA tournament run and Illinois had all those seniors? I loved what Mike Rice was able to do at Rutgers last season, but Kadeem Jack is injured and Rutgers lost some key seniors too. Illinois has the best recruiting class, so that makes them the favorites.

Great Alaska Shootout – Nov 23, 24, 25, and 26

I guess this tournament is a nice chance for San Francisco or New Mexico St. to show something. But for those of us that remember the glory days of the Great Alaska Shootout, this field is sad.

Battle 4 Atlantis – Nov 24, 25, and 26

The country may be rooting for Harvard after the Crimson narrowly missed the NCAA tournament last year. I see Harvard beating Utah in the first round, but I think Harvard will have a hard time beating Florida St. in the semifinals. UConn has won 11 tournament games in a row, and they are the clear favorite.

76 Classic – Nov 24, 25, and 27

New Mexico has a better team than Villanova, but Villanova draws UC Riverside in the first round, and that looks like a first round bye. St. Louis has had to play a ton of freshmen the last two years, so perhaps it is fitting they play such a young Boston College team in the first round of this event.

Old Spice Classic – Nov 24, 25, and 27

A Dayton vs Indiana St. final is a legitimate possibility here. I think the bigger question is which BCS team finishes 0-3.

Chicago Invitational Challenge – Nov 25 and 26

Bradley, Nevada, and BYU have all had their NCAA moments in recent years, but Wisconsin is the best team in this four-team bracket.

Las Vegas Invitational – Nov 25 and 26

Dave Rice has said that he wants to reinstate the run-and-gun mentality at UNLV. But will he be push the tempo against North Carolina if the teams meet in the title game of this event?

Diamond Head Classic – Dec 22, 23, 25

Very sneaky move by Hawaii to schedule the weakest BCS team (Auburn) as their personal first round opponent.

*These odds probably give the favorites too high a probability of winning.  The problem is that there are two sources of uncertainty.  The first source is the random variation when teams face each other.  The second is the noise related to the fact that we do not have an accurate read on the teams yet.  These odds are only accurate if you believe my preseason rankings are 100% accurate.  So if your team only has a 10% chance to win, don’t worry.  Maybe they are better than I think.