Oregon wins Pac-12 Tournament

Once again, I have to turn this over to Bill Walton:

On the loss of Jordan Adams, “Shabazz Muhammad, he’ll get more shots, and what could be better than that?”

“The game needs a rhythm, it needs a flow. Every possession has been a turnover.”

Dave Pasch, “I don’t know if you were watching the games today at your pool party.” Bill Walton, “I was at the pool party, there was plenty to see there.”

“After as poor a start as you could possibly have, the Ducks have found their way on the Oregon Trail. Lewis and Clark would be so proud.”

“I love little fast guys. I used to be one. And then I turned 14. And hurt my knee.”

Shabazz Muhammad is sitting with two personal fouls in the first half. Pasch “So you disagree with the decision to sit him?” Walton, “Close enough.” Pasch, “Is that a yes or no?” Next Walton suggests Muhammad could just substitute himself back in. “Just walk to the scorer’s table and ask to replace somebody.” Pasch, “Would John Wooden have let you get away with that?” Walton, “I don’t remember sitting on the bench.”

“Nobody in this tournament has been able to keep any of the guards in front of them.” Ah, but that is why the Pac-12 is so fun to watch.

“I think they should play every game here in Las Vegas forever.”

“Kyle Anderson isn’t one of those guys with the bulging veins who can push everyone around, he is just a basketball player – I love it.”

“There is a way through, Lewis and Clark were right!” And the Pac-12 tournament title goes to Oregon.

Louisville wins Big East Tournament

So that is what a 27-3 run looks like.

My favorite note from the broadcast:

When Jim Larranaga left George Mason for Miami FL, Luke Hancock wanted out. Rick Pitino called and asked Larranaga about Hancock’s game. “If you need a big bucket, he is your man. If you need a big rebound, he is your man. If you need someone to play defense, he isn’t your man.” But Hancock did force a key turnover during Louisville’s big run, and I have rarely seen Rick Pitino so happy.

As sad as I am to see the Big East tournament come to the end, it certainly isn’t the end of the world. I’m looking forward to a crazy ACC tournament semifinal in two years when Syracuse, Louisville, Duke, and North Carolina all advance to the Final Four. Conference realignment is tough, but not every future scenario is bad.

Kansas wins Big 12 Tournament

Perry Ellis shot 23 of 30 in the final four games of the season. Meanwhile Naadir Tharpe dished 8 assists against Iowa St. and had a season high 12 points against Kansas St. in the Big 12 final. The best thing about players breaking out late in the year is that the scouting report isn’t out on them. For players that break out in November and December, there are plenty of conference games to analyze their game and look for weakness. When a player starts shining late in the year, it is extremely hard to game plan for because you haven’t seen what works best to slow them down.

Ole Miss wins SEC Tournament

Marshall Henderson is a loose cannon. The factoid about how he plays better in the second half because Andy Kennedy is on the same side of the court as him and can shout at him and keep him under control is one of the scariest factoids I’ve heard all year. And his Gator axe-move with his team just leading by 6 points with 8 minutes left could have drawn a technical. At minimum it was horrible judgment. But when you are a Mississippi fan and you haven’t won the SEC in 30 years, or made the tournament under Andy Kennedy, Henderson is your favorite player in the world.

Miami wins the ACC Tournament

Shane Larkin didn’t show up anywhere on Ken Pomeroy’s player-of-the-year ballot (in part because he only uses 21% of the Hurricanes possessions). But there is no doubt he is the difference between Miami being an NIT team and an ACC champion. Jim Larranaga handed him the keys to the team late last season, and he has thrived in every big moment. When the Boston College game was tight on the Friday, he was there hitting the pull-ahead three point shot. When his team needed a bucket to stay ahead of NC State and North Carolina, there he was making the perfect assist. And when those teams turned up the pressure to try to get back in the game, he avoided the costly turnover. Finally, his free throw shooting sealed both weekend games without a hiccup. In February and March, Larkin has only posted an ORtg below 100 in one game. He clearly has the heart of a champion.

Ohio St. wins the Big Ten Tournament

Maybe I’m just grumpy after another Wisconsin game in the 40’s. But the Big Ten tournament made me more angry than excited this year.

It started on Friday, when Mike Tirico and Dan Dakich noted that after speaking to the Indiana staff, the feeling was that the conference tournament was not that important. The real test of accomplishment was winning the outright regular season title. No one disagrees with that in principle. (Except Steve Alford. He still thinks he won a Big Ten title thanks to Iowa’s tournament win.) But when Indiana lost in the semifinals you could tell in Tom Crean’s voice that the Big Ten tournament just wasn’t that important to him. He said he would have “liked” to win, but that the Hoosier’s overall body of work spoke for itself. You don’t win key games in March without some chip on your shoulder. Wisconsin felt they were robbed of a regular season title. Indiana never had to come to Wisconsin and play in their building. They blew a late home game against Purdue. They wanted it. Ohio St. felt like they were always an after-thought all season after spending most of the season in 5^th place in the league. Those teams wanted to prove they were legitimate on the national stage. And Crean’s under-estimate of the conference tournament is likely why Louisville will be playing in Indianapolis in the Sweet Sixteen and not Indiana.

I don’t understand why Big Ten coaches don’t value this tournament more. Tom Izzo is a fabulous NCAA tournament coach, but his teams are more likely to struggle to bubble team’s on Friday night of the Big Ten tournament than they are to bring home a Big Ten Tournament title. Indiana still has never won the tournament. Until those marquee names start making this tournament into a big deal, it will never be as fun as the other conference clashes. It obviously hurts that the Big Ten tournament final is often too late to count as part of the selection process. But as many have said, you only have so many chances in life to cut down the nets and win a title.

Congratulations to Ohio St. for winning their 5^th Big Ten title, the most of any team. But too bad Thad Matta isn’t John Thompson Jr. I’d love for Matta to boast how Ohio St. owns the Big Ten tournament. Then this thing might start to mean something.

The Pac-12 has brought cool back with Bill Walton and Las Vegas. The Big East will still have Madison Square Garden (even if it doesn’t have Syracuse.) The new ACC will have the most exciting tournament in the land. The Big Ten can do better.

If you aren’t fired up for the conference tournaments, all you need to do is read Dana O’Neil and Conor Nevins piece on the history of the Big East tournament. Conference tournaments are basketball’s hidden jewel.

Tuesday Session 1

BE 13-seed South Florida vs 12-seed Seton Hall, MWC 9 Nevada vs 8 Wyoming

South Florida is playing in its Mellow Yellow shorts. They certainly aren’t worse than the Adidas Zubaz look.

One amusing note in the first half. Seton Hall reverses the ball to Kyle Smyth who hits a wide-open three. How wide open was Smyth? All nine of the other players were on the right side of the key, while he was the only player on the left side of the key. It is pretty hard to fit nine players in that little space, but Smyth was literally the only player in the frame.

You can tell these teams are struggling offensively because the announcers are not hiding their feelings Mike Patrick, “The best thing you can say about the first half – it was close.”

Len Elmore trying to sell this as a compelling match-up, “Most teams don’t want to play defense for 35 seconds.”

Patrick, “How do you go 8 and a half minutes without scoring and still lead by 5?”

Finally, late in the game, when Seton Hall and USF were shooting 22% and 21% respectively from three point range and kept jacking up bad shots, Elmore reached the breaking point. “Why are we settling for threes fellas?”

I hate the graphic that says USF has so many points off turnovers. They don’t have nearly that many transition points. If you get a turnover, and then need 30 seconds of half-court offense to score, those aren’t points off turnovers.

The announcers point out that the fewest combined points scored in a Big East Tournament game is 87. With 5 minutes left in the game these teams have scored a combined 59 points. USF leads 32-27. Does anyone else miss Keno Davis?

Meanwhile, I would love to tell you what was happening in the MWC first round game, but it lacks TV coverage. I’ll steal a factoid that Doug Gottlieb shared with us on day 2. Last year’s the women’s Final Four in Denver created a floor with mountain’s etched in the gridwork. The Mountain West Conference loved the floor so much they bought it and shipped it to Vegas for their conference tournament.

Back to Madison Square Garden: With 2 minutes left, USF gets trapped in the backcourt and is not going to be able to beat the 10 second clock and avoid a back-court violation. But head coach Stan Heath wisely calls time out. The announcers rightfully complain that you shouldn’t get a new 10 second clock when you call a timeout. One possession later, Seton Hall again traps USF in the backcourt, and again a timeout bails the Bulls out.

Finally, Seton Hall cuts the lead to two points with 35 seconds left, applies additional pressure, and forces the turnover. USF steps out of bounds and Seton Hall has a chance for the tie or win. Fuquan Edwin drives for a lay-up and ties the game at 37. USF then gets three looks at a game-winning shot in the final seconds, but since this is South Florida, none of those shots fall.

Tied at 37-37, the 74 points in regulation would be the fewest ever in a Big East tournament game, but thankfully for these teams, they get 5 additional minutes of action. Seton Hall eventually pulls ahead, and Fuquan Edwin’s last two free throws ensure that this will not be the lowest scoring Big East tournament game of all time. The Pirates advance 46-42.

Meanwhile, in the untelevised game, Wyoming advances.

Tuesday Session 2

BE 11 Rutgers vs 14 DePaul

Sean McDonough, “We’ll be hard-pressed to match the excitement of the first game you saw tonight.” Amazingly Jay Bilas and Bill Raftery manage to keep a straight face.

And yet McDonough may be right. While the game has its moments, including dueling threes to end the first half, that momentarily give DePaul the lead before Rutgers takes it right back, DePaul’s defense just isn’t stout enough to hold up for 40 minutes.

Rutgers shoots 61% in the first half and leads by only 1. Normally, this is a bad sign. Teams rarely shoot that well all game. But this is not fool’s gold. Since the Scarlet Knights are getting so many easy paint looks, they shoot 61% in the second half too.

Here is a random stat for you: When DePaul has at least 1 regular season conference victory, they are winless in the Big East tournament. (DePaul’s only Big East tournament win came the year they didn’t win any conference games during the regular season.)

Before the end of the game Rutger’s Wally Judge makes it to 9 for 9 from the floor which ties a Big East tournament record for most made baskets in a game without a miss.

Wednesday Session 1

BE 8 Providence vs 9 Cincinnati

Does anything beat afternoon basketball?

Early in the game Mike Patrick noted Cincinnati’s offensive swoon in February. “Cincinnati’s uniforms are camouflaged, but its Cincinnati’s offense that has been wearing camouflage lately.”

There is no question Cincinnati has been playing worse lately, but I am again going to question the wisdom of the shooting split they show. Cincinnati shot 42% from the field in the first 22 games of the season and 35% in the last 9 games. Yes, but that’s true for 95% of the major conference teams. The early season includes some cupcakes that inflate everyone’s shooting percentages. Please only show the split for Big East games. It might only be 39% vs 35%, but it would be more informative.

Cincinnati takes a 26-8 lead before Providence storms back to make it 31-27. This is the story of both team’s seasons. Cincinnati was dominate early and struggled late, and Providence surged late, but Cincinnati is still the better team. And down the stretch the Bearcats put it away.

Wednesday Session 2

BE 5 Syracuse vs 12 Seton Hall, MWC 3 UNLV vs 6 Air Force, P12 9 Arizona St. vs 8 Stanford

Incredible shooting to start the Syracuse vs Seton Hall game. Seton Hall starts out 6 of 8 from three point range and Syracuse starts out 5 of 7 from three point range.

At one point they pan to the stands and show all sorts of Syracuse alumni. They show a very sharply dressed Pearl Washington, John Wallace, and Derrick Coleman. Then they show Harvey Grant. Hey wait, he’s not a Syracuse alum. He played for Oklahoma and Clemson. But his son Jerami Grant is playing in the game, so I guess we will let that slide.

Out to Vegas: Air Force vs UNLV is a very intriguing game on paper. Despite a number of losses, Air Force has 4 Top 50 wins and might be able to make it into the bubble conversation with a MWC tournament run. 2 minutes into the game, the MWC’s leading scorer, Air Force guard Michael Lyons injures his knee. This game just got a lot less interesting.

Back to MSG: Jokes about players impaling themselves on the hologram Big East graphic are trending on Twitter.

Despite a tie score at half-time, Syracuse starts to pull away in the second half. I have to hand it to Seton Hall graduate student (and Iona transfer) Kyle Smyth though – he is fighting like crazy. Not only did Smyth hit three 3’s to open the game, he draws a tough charge on CJ Fair in the paint. You can tell Smyth doesn’t want his career to end.

But you can also tell Syracuse is gaining confidence. The zone defense is getting better. What people don’t understand is that zone defense actually takes more energy than man-to-man defense if you want to play it well. And with Syracuse lacking confidence in recent games, it has been hurting their energy level. But the offensive outburst today seems to be making the Orange’s defense better. Syracuse eventually puts the game away.

Back in Vegas, the game is a laugher, but Doug Gottlieb and Steve Lappas make up for it with fantastic commentary. They spend much of the game dissecting Anthony Bennett’s NBA chances. Everyone agrees he is a fabulous athlete, and his lateral quickness, leaping ability, strength, and shooting touch at 6’7” should make him a solid NBA player. But he might not be a lottery pick because of his size. He needs to play a power forward spot in the pros, and 6’7” might not be tall enough.

Lappas asks whether Bennett spends too much time on the perimeter. I disagree. He’s shooting 37% on his threes and attempts only 2.6 perimeter shots per game. This isn’t a case of Baylor’s elite post players falling in love with jump shots.

Gottlieb questions his motor. Bennett has to be pulled from the game because he is out of breath. Gottlieb says some teams wonder if Bennett might have an asthma issue.

Lappas and Gottlieb also agree that Bennett is far too erratic. That might be true, but for such a young player, NBA teams will be drafting him based on potential, not production. And his production is still pretty darn good.

At some point Air Force’s Taylor Broekhuis gets hurt too. A graphic shows that Lyons and Broekhuis are out of the game. Gottlieb, “So Mrs. Lincoln, other than that, how did you like the play?”

I’d love to tell you what is happening in the Stanford vs Arizona St. game since both those teams are good enough to make a Pac-12 tournament run, and need to make a Pac-12 tournament run to have any NCAA tournament hope. But basically every cable company on the East Coast doesn’t carry the Pac-12 Network yet. Arizona St. wins in OT. Grr, that looks fun.

UNLV and Air Force isn’t nearly that close. At least we still have Lappas and Gottlieb. The announcers are talking about Air Force’s win over New Mexico last Saturday. Lappas, “Both teams made 15 threes in that game. Have you ever seen a game where a team made 15 threes and lost?” Gottlieb mentions the Norfolk St. vs Missouri game from the NCAA tournament last year. Hey great memory Doug, but I just looked it up. Missouri only made 13 threes in that loss.

Wednesday Session 3

MWC 7 Fresno St. vs 2 Colorado St., P12 12 Oregon St. vs 5 Colorado

CBS Sports Network has a great video intro for these MWC Tournament games using the song “Hall of Fame” by the Script. You cannot argue with the production values.

35 seconds into the game we see 5 players diving full out for the ball. This is college basketball.

The highlight may have come late in the second half when Fresno St.’s Kevin Foster fouled out. Foster was called for a charge after running into 3 Colorado St. defenders. But he only knocked 2 of the 3 of them over. Lappas, “He got his money’s worth. Wow, how can he be complaining about that call, he ran over 3 guys?” Gottlieb, “He only knocked 2 of them over, it’s a spare.”

Gottlieb also nailed the punchline of this game. “People are going to look at the box score and see that Colorado St. struggled against Fresno St. and think that they played poorly. But Dorian Green sat out with an ankle injury, Colton Iverson and Greg Smith had foul trouble, and this was actually a very gritty win.”

Meanwhile, across town Colorado’s Andre Roberson scored 12 points and grabbed 7 rebounds. Roberson had missed the previous two games due to an illness but he was back in form in the win against Oregon St.

Wednesday Session 4

BE 7 Villanova vs 10 St. John’s, Big 12 8 West Virginia vs 9 Texas Tech, SEC 12 South Carolina vs 13 Mississippi St.

I am now watching three games at once on my computer using Watch ESPN.

Texas Tech somehow takes an early 14 point lead on West Virginia. Meanwhile Mississippi St. takes the lead on South Carolina. Since Texas Tech and Mississippi St. are avert-your-eyes horrible teams, I’m wondering whether Frank Martin or Bob Huggins has a bigger scowl on his face.

Back to MSG: You may be asking how St. John’s Chris Obekpa can score so few points. He is one of the top shot-blockers and you would think his athleticism would translate into a few more scoring opportunities. But with 7 minutes left in the first half Obekpa gets an open dunk under the basket and completely blows it. To say his offensive game is not polished is the understatement of the century.

St. John’s uses a lot of full court pressure, but Villanova mostly handles it, and eventually Villanova pulls away. I think Villanova was in the NCAA tournament even with a loss, but they are in for sure now.

Late in the game Jay Bilas mentions that St. John’s assistant Gene Keady still doesn’t know who he is. Keady referred to him as Bye-Las. I feel very bad for Gene Keady these days. His stint on the Big Ten Network was horrible, and he always looks old to me on Lavin’s bench. His comb-over is long gone now and seeing him just makes me sad.

West Virginia takes a late 2 point lead on Texas Tech and the announcer makes the most depressing pronouncement you can: “Texas Tech has played about as well as they can.” Uggh, if you play as well as you can and you are still losing to a team with a losing conference record, that’s not good.

But apparently Texas Tech can play a little better. They take a 1 point lead and have the ball with 45 seconds left. Unfortunately, not only do they miss a shot that would extend the lead, they foul on the rebound attempt. West Virginia’s Deniz Kilicli pretends that Aaric Murray was the one who was fouled, but the refs are having none of it. I’m not feeling very confident in Kilicli’s free throw shooting after that move.  And logically he only makes one of his two free throws.

Tie game, Texas Tech has the ball with a chance to win. And much like USF last night, they shoot early enough that they get three looks for the win in regulation. Unlike USF, the third shot, a put-back lay-up goes in with 0.4 seconds on the clock. Texas Tech wins!

Elsewhere, after cutting the lead to 4 points with 4 minutes left, South Carolina bows out with a whimper in their 12/13 game. Losing to Mississippi St. is about as embarrassing as it gets at this point considering that Mississippi St. only has 6 healthy scholarship players.

Wednesday Session 5

Pac12 7 USC vs 10 Utah, MWC 1 New Mexico vs 8 Wyoming, B12 7 Texas vs 10 TCU, BE 6 Notre Dame vs 11 Rutgers, SEC 11 Texas A&M vs 14 Auburn

Hmm, after 11 hours of action, nothing seems all that amusing anymore. Doug Gottlieb and Steve Lappas are arguing over who should be the MWC player of the year for the 3^rd time today. For the second straight day, Sean McDonough tells the story about how Rutgers coach Mike Rice is a nicer person since his University-imposed suspension. And during the Texas game, they are debating whether the Longhorn’s loss to Chaminade in the Maui invitational should count for NIT consideration. The last two days haven’t exactly featured the best teams, but up until now, I’ve been able to ignore that. This commentary just drives it home.

It hurts that the only close game (USC vs Utah) isn’t on TV. I momentarily perk up when New Mexico goes 12 minutes without scoring a field goal, but the Lobos defense is so good, they still lead by 5. What is the record for shot-clock violations in one game? It feels like Wyoming is looking for that record.

Utah, New Mexico, Texas, Notre Dame, and Texas A&M prevail in uninspired fashion.

Wednesday Session 6

MWC 5 Boise St. vs 4 San Diego St., Pac-12 11 Washington St. vs 6 Washington

And the day ends with a pair of dramatic comebacks. Washington leads by 62-47 with 8 minutes left, but Washington St. somehow scores 15 straight points to tie it up. And then Washington (thanks to a Desmonds Simmons bucket) wins the game anyway.

Meanwhile, San Diego St. is playing fantastic defense and Boise St. looks completely out-of-sync. But then San Diego St. makes a series of lackadaisical unforced turnovers on offense, and suddenly Boise St. is getting some easy transition baskets. San Diego St. is up 13, but a 14-0 run gives Boise St. the lead. Eventually San Diego St. gets enough stops to win it. Boise St.’s Derrick Marks ends the day a dreadful 4 of 21 from the floor. I still say Boise St. is in the NCAA tournament field, but it will be close.

Time for some sleep. Thursday remains the most under-rated day of college basketball on the entire calendar. If you love high profile teams playing win-or-go-home basketball, 7 of the top 8 conferences are in action with 56 major conference teams playing 28 games. That is the most marquee games of any day the rest of the season. If you like speculation, virtually every at-large bubble team will be in action. Bottom line: Thursday is going to be great.

A growing group of college basketball experts have argued that we should eliminate the conference tournaments. They argue that the regular season champion is the team most deserving of the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, and smaller conferences often end up sending a less deserving teams to the Big Dance. I agree that the regular season champion is usually the best team. But college basketball is not inherently about having the best teams around at the end. If it was, the NCAA tournament itself would not be a single elimination format. Instead, I continue to love the win-or-go-home drama the conference tournaments present.

Last year, Isaiah Canaan led Murray St. to a near undefeated campaign. But with a number of his teammates graduating this off-season, Canaan’s team was not a legitimate at-large candidate this year. To make the tournament, Murray St. had to win the OVC tournament and beat a juggernaut Belmont team in the process. And since Belmont would probably receive an at-large bid (if eliminated in the OVC final), bubble teams everywhere were forced to root for Belmont and against NCAA hero Isaiah Canaan.

And even though Belmont was clearly the deeper and better team, Canaan did everything he could to will his team to victory on Saturday. After Belmont had come back from 10 down to tie the game in the second half, there was Canaan making a three and drawing the foul to give his team a 4 point lead. Fans of bubble teams everywhere were panicking. But missed free throw by Murray St. gave Belmont’s Kerron Johnson a chance. Down two in regulation, Johnson drove into the lane and looked for an open three point shooter who he could feed for a game-winning shot attempt. But since no double team was forthcoming, Johnson turned around calmly knocked down a face-up jumper to send the game into the extra session. And then Canaan and Johnson dueled some more. The game finally ended with Belmont’s Johnson hitting a pull-up jumper for the game-winner with 2 seconds left in OT.

Conference tournaments ensure that for every team there is one last chance for redemption. Whether your last game is the OVC final, the first game of the Pac-12 tournament, or the round of 64, everyone eventually faces lose-or-go-home.

Big Ten Tournament Printable Bracket

The Big Ten was the top conference in the nation and the finale between Indiana and Michigan lived up to the hype. The Hoosiers won the outright conference title, but it came down to a ball hanging on the edge of the rim at the end of regulation. A simple half centimeter difference and there would have been a 4-way tie for first place. Still, for those of us who like to think teams make their own luck, I flash back to a play Indiana’s Victor Oladipo made two minutes earlier. With Christian Watford hanging in the air and taking a bad shot, Oladipo ran to get the ball, and made the lay-up as the shot-clock expired. If it wasn’t for Oladipo’s awareness, the Hoosiers wouldn’t have even been in position to win at the end. Indiana may have locked up a 1-seed by winning the outright title in the best league in the country this year, but the winner of the tournament will also have a serious claim to at least a 2-seed.

CW-CL: Conference Wins and Losses

T50W-T50L: Wins and Losses vs RPI Top 50

N50W-N50L: Wins and Losses vs RPI 51-100

BL: Bad Losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100

NCSOS: Non-conference strength-of-schedule

RNW-RNL: Road-neutral wins and losses

Bubble Banter: Iowa may have more conference wins than Minnesota and Illinois, but they have only four wins against the Top 50, and only one win against teams ranked 51-100. Keep in mind that the Hawkeyes were the only team in the Big Ten to play Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Penn St. twice. That combined with a weak non-conference schedule is why the Hawkeyes probably need at least one more Top 50 win (against Michigan St. in the quarterfinals) to make the tournament field. Purdue has only three top 50 wins to go along with 16 losses. That is why, even with the same record as Minnesota and Illinois, Purdue is not an at-large candidate at this point.

While Illinois and Minnesota’s numbers do look slightly more impressive, perception matters a lot. This isn’t all about numbers. It is about committee members voting to put these teams in the field. The loser of the Minnesota vs Illinois first round game is going to end the season with a three game losing streak and be extremely nervous on selection Sunday.

MWC Tournament Printable Bracket

Wyoming gave the MWC a huge gift this year. Wyoming was undefeated in non-conference play, and then lost their leading scorer, which basically made them a cupcake in conference play. Wyoming effectively boosted all of the team’s power numbers, including giving 1-2 free Top 100 wins to each team. I don’t actually see the MWC as a league that will earn a lot of NCAA tournament wins this year, but they absolutely will get some quality seeds.

Bubble Banter: If Air Force can beat UNLV on Wednesday, they might actually make the MWC into a six-bid league. At this point, I think that is more likely than Boise St. or San Diego St. getting left out.

Big East Tournament Printable Bracket

After sweeping Syracuse to become co-Big East champions, John Thompson III didn’t make any grand sweeping pronouncements. No “Manley Fieldhouse is Officially Closed” was uttered by Georgetown’s current coach. And I loved how Dana O’Neil of ESPN put it. JT3 is neither self-indulgent nor arrogant enough to make a statement like that. Georgetown and Louisville both have a chance to earn a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament if they can follow-up their shared regular season title with a conference tournament title. And Marquette might be able to do it too. The Golden Eagles will have a couple more losses on the full season, but three more Top 50 wins would also put them in the discussion.

Bubble Banter: Providence is playing much better basketball lately, but has many more bad losses than Cincinnati. Realistically, there may not be much bubble intrigue in the Big East, as the line below Cincinnati is fairly clear.

ACC Tournament Printable Bracket

If Duke wins the ACC tournament, is everyone going to pick them to win it all? The stat that Duke is “undefeated with Ryan Kelly in the lineup” is getting a lot of press lately, and while I believe they are a better team, I think the hype may be getting a little out of hand. I don’t believe we should completely dismiss losses (such as what happened at Virginia) because of one player. But yes, Duke is clearly a favorite at this point.

Bubble Banter: North Carolina’s profile is eerily weak at this point. It is hard to believe that teams like Minnesota, Boise St., and Cincinnati can have better profiles than a 12-6 Tar Heel team. North Carolina’s improved play down the stretch is going to sway public opinion in their favor (and it should), but if they get a poor seed, the lack of quality wins is going to be the reason.

Virginia (like Iowa above) has one huge red-mark on their resume, that 300+ NCSOS. The NCAA tournament committee almost always punishes at least one team for soft scheduling by leaving them out of the field. Right now Virginia has that target on their back, so avoiding a quarterfinal loss in the ACC tournament is critical. Florida St. and Maryland just don’t have tournament profiles at this point.

Big 12 Tournament Printable Bracket

It sort of seems hard to believe that Kansas has so many Top 50 wins at this point, but some of their non-conference victories (like Belmont and St. Louis) look really good right now. The Jayhawks certainly make a better than expected case for a 1-seed in the tournament. But they may need to win the Big 12 tournament to get it, especially with the Big East, Big Ten, Duke, and Gonzaga all making cases for 1’s. Kansas St. may have shared the Big 12 regular season title, but their profile is not nearly as impressive. They are actually 5-6 against the Top 50, and while they’ve avoided bad losses, I think some people will be surprised how different the seeds are for Kansas and Kansas St. on selection Sunday.

Bubble Banter: The officiating error at the end of Iowa St.’s loss to Kansas might give the Cyclones some support in the committee room. Remember, the committee is made up of people. Whether or not they should count that fact, I’m sure some of them will. Baylor’s win against Kansas may have saved their season, but with only 3 top 50 wins and 13 losses, they could use a little more padding on their resume. Baylor must beat Oklahoma St. in the Big 12 quarterfinals if they want to make the field.

Pac-12 Tournament Bracket

UCLA is going to be a trendy bracket pick next week, but I see a four-seed in UCLA’s future. They just don’t have the quality wins of the other conference champions.

Bubble Banter: People get a little too hung up on Top 50 wins sometimes. Arizona St.’s record of 1-4 against the next 50, and Arizona St.’s three bad losses are crippling. Throw in a NCSOS near 300 and I would draw the cut-off between Colorado and Arizona St. But as John Gasaway has noted frequently at Basketball Prospectus, the difference between the top and bottom of the Pac-12 is not huge this year. A surprise Pac-12 winner is not out of the question.

Atlantic 10 Tournament Printable Bracket

I might be looking forward to the A10 tournament more than any other conference this year. The twelve seed Dayton is extremely dangerous (having lost a lot of close games due to poor perimeter defense.) Pre-season favorite St. Joseph’s is seeded tenth. And a whole host of quality teams know that 2-3 wins in this tournament is the difference between being a 9-seed on selection Sunday and heading to the NIT.

Bubble Banter:  Realistically, while Butler plays on Thursday, and La Salle is off until Friday, La Salle is the bubble team here. La Salle desperately needs to win Friday’s quarterfinal match-up.

SEC Tournament Printable Bracket

I actually think a number of teams at the top of the SEC seem to be playing better basketball. But the season was lost in November and December. The SEC simply lost too many games and that destroyed everyone’s profile.

Bubble Banter: Kentucky still has just two Top 50 wins at this point. They may need to make it to the SEC final to secure an at-large bid. Ole Miss and Alabama also lack the quality wins to make a legitimate case for the tournament. And Arkansas has just one win this year away from home.

Missouri is in the best shape with the lack of bad losses and three quality wins, but even Missouri’s resume isn’t perfect. Tennessee is also making a late charge at a bid. Thus even though they must play on Thursday, Tennessee and Missouri might be favored to reach the SEC semifinals.

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