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The Many Facets & Unpredictability Of March Madness

The older I get, the more I see that one of the things I love most about sports is the variety of it, the diversity of it and the CHARACTERS. Men’s tennis is at its best in many years because, for the first time in a long time, the top three or four players all have wildly different styles. The Tim Tebow story was fun on so many levels, but one of those levels was that he was just SO DIFFERENT in how he played — I’d say we are entering a great time for quarterbacks, because Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning and Drew Brees and Michael Vick and Cam Newton and Tebow and others are not really alike at all.

-- Joe Posnanski

As a basketball fan, I’ve never understood the division that exists between fans of the NBA and the NCAA. While the NBA has the best basketball players in the world, March Madness is compelling in its own right and as entertaining as anything that happens on the professional level.

In the NBA, the owners of the 30 franchises consider turning a profit and getting an equal shot at the top players a right, regardless of how well (or how poorly) they run their organization and the respective size of their fan-bases. Since every losing team is a few ping pong balls from the rights to a LeBron James, Kevin Durant or Dwight Howard, personnel determines scheme in the NBA.

In contrast, the vast majority of the 344 Division I programs in college basketball have little chance of ever receiving a commitment from a McDonald’s All-American. But instead of petulantly trying to sabotage the sport in a misguided effort to legislate fairness, schools try many creative ways of leveraging the talents of the players they can recruit. As a result, scheme determines personnel in the NCAA.

At Syracuse, Jim Boeheim has made a Hall of Fame career out of running a contrarian scheme, in his case an aggressive 2-3 zone. The Orange traditionally have rosters full of “1.5’s”, 6’3+ combo guards lacking the quickness to defend elite PG’s and the size to defend SG’s, and “3.5’s”, 6’8+ combo forwards lacking the quickness to defend elite SF’s and the size to defend PF’s. However, because Syracuse never plays man defense, the athletic deficiencies of their players are minimized.

So while nearly every NBA team runs a fairly similar system of isolations, pick-and-rolls and man defense, an incredibly diverse array of styles can be found in the college game. On one end of the spectrum, teams like Missouri play four guards and pressure the ball 94 feet for 48 minutes, on the other, teams like Wisconsin run a deliberate motion offense, trying to minimize the number of possessions and shoot at the very end of the shot-clock.

In the NBA, the players are too good for the “40 Minutes of Hell” system (which Mike Anderson has brought to Missouri and Arkansas in the last few years) to be successful. Like Mike Leach’s bizarre pass-happy offense in college football, Anderson’s system, which he learned as a member of Nolan Richardson’s staff in Arkansas in the 1990’s, has philosophical holes that professional athletes can exploit. Nevertheless, that doesn’t make them any less entertaining on the collegiate level.

And with 68 teams set to compete in the NCAA Tournament, there are a lot more surprises in the college game. Even programs ranked in the top-15 like Murray State have barely been on national TV this season.

We have a pretty good idea of how teams like the Pacers and the 76ers match up with the top of the Eastern Conference but not whether an undersized Murray State squad can handle the size of an elite team from a Power Six conference. It’s an open question how Isaiah Canaan’s speed and athleticism translates outside of the Ohio Valley Conference. Non-conference play in college basketball generally ends in late December, so it’s almost impossible to gauge how younger teams like Texas, Washington and Tennessee who have found their groove in the last two months will fare in March.

In the NBA, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Chicago, Miami and Oklahoma City aren’t three of the final four teams left in the playoffs. In the NCAA, as many as two dozen teams have a legitimate shot at making a run at the Final Four.

Of course, in terms of entertainment, none of this makes the NCAA necessarily better or worse than the NBA, just different. But, as Posnanski writes, there’s something to be said for the concept of “different” in the modern sports world. Basketball fans of all stripes should enjoy March Madness; the NBA will still be here in a few weeks.

Looking Back, Looking Ahead To Tournament Week

Big Ten: Ohio St. beat Michigan St. to force a three-way tie for the Big Ten regular season title. (Michigan also shared the crown.) You get so used to watching games decided by three-pointers and driving guards, but in the final ten minutes this game was decided in the low-post. That should favor the Spartans. Besides Draymond Green, Michigan St. has three players in Derrick Nix, Branden Dawson and Adreian Payne with phenomenal offensive rebounding numbers, and the Spartans tend to overwhelm teams on the interior. And Derrick Nix was up to the challenge in this game with some brilliant post moves.

But the Buckeyes somehow matched the Spartans toughness in the paint. With Jared Sullinger in foul trouble, Evan Ravenel forced his way to the basket and refused to be intimidated. And at the end of the game, when no one else could keep Draymond Green out of the lane, Ravenel came back off the bench and forced Green into a fade-away jumper that essentially decided the game. William Buford is going to get a lot of credit for his hot-shooting and his game-winning jumper with 1 second left, but Ravenel’s defensive stop on Green was the play-of-the-game.

ACC: North Carolina beat Duke to win the outright ACC title, and in the process the Tar Heels became only the second team this season to hold Duke under one point per possession. (Ohio St. was the other.) With Duke’s defensive problems this year, they aren’t going to beat anyone if they shoot like they did in the first half on Saturday.

SEC: Did anyone expect Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt to force a three-way tie for second place in the SEC? Did anyone expect Tennessee to sneak back into the bubble discussion? I sure did not, and that is why I left them out of Thursday’s injury split column. But since Jarnell Stokes became eligible for the second semester, Tennessee has been playing like the 34th best team in the nation. Part of what fascinates me about Stokes' splits is that in his debut he was a great offensive weapon but seemed confused defensively. But since that time he has struggled with free throw and turnovers, and basically earned his keep as a defensive stopper. Stokes block rate and steal rate are now tops on Tennessee among regular rotation players, and as the overall data shows, Tennessee has grown into a dominant defensive team with Stokes in the lineup:

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth.

Tennessee (without Stokes)

107.0

98.1

8

8

0.7096

Tennessee (with Stokes)

103.3

87.6

9

5

0.8438

(Does not include game against Chaminade.)

Big East: Marquette beat Georgetown to claim the 2-seed in the Big East tournament. The Golden Eagles had a free throw rate of 90.0 in the win, meaning they earned 9 FTA for every 10 FGA in the game. That may seem exceptionally high (and it was a season high for Marquette), but it wasn’t the best in the nation this year. Gonzaga had a free throw rate of 107.3 vs BYU on February 23rd.

Big 12: Iowa St. beat Baylor to force a tie for third place and win the 3-seed in the Big 12 tournament. Despite using a lineup that spreads the floor (four perimeter players around Royce White), and despite Baylor’s highly ranked post prospects, Iowa St. won the offensive rebounding battle. It often seems like Pierre Jackson is the only player on Baylor with any toughness and he did not go down without a fight, scoring 35 points for the Bears. But Jackson couldn’t win the game by himself, and Baylor’s late season swoon continues.

Punching Tickets

Matt Norlander of CBS Sports was kind enough to have me on his podcast on Friday. One thing we discussed was how Championship Week gives many players their one moment in the sun. Win or lose, Illinois St.’s Tyler Brown made a driving lay-up to help send the MVC championship into OT and a three pointer just before half-time on national TV. And no one can ever take that game-tape away from him.

But let’s face it, these non-BCS conference finals are so much better when there is a potential bid-thief involved. NC-Asheville beating VMI was nice for those schools. And Belmont coming back to beat Florida-Gulf Coast made the NCAA field a little tougher. But when an Illinois St. win shrinks the bubble by one slot, and Creighton needs 33 points from Doug McDermott to beat Illinois St. in OT, that is a special game. And Murray St.’s comeback from seven points down to avenge their only loss of the season was equally intriguing. Those two games are just a taste of what is to come:

Week Ahead

Monday

- Drexel plays VCU in the CAA tournament final. Drexel was my preseason pick to win the CAA and they ultimately won the regular season title. Everyone knows VCU from their incredible Final Four run last year. You will hear people say ad naseum how the loser of this game deserves an NCAA bid, but with the weakness of the CAA, only a win ensures anything.

- Gonzaga plays St. Mary’s in the WCC tournament final in a game that is much less fascinating. Both teams are in the NCAA field no matter what, so this game is just about NCAA seeding.

- Also, Davidson faces Western Carolina in the Southern Conference title game, and Fairfield plays Loyola (Md) in the MAAC title game. This weekend Fairfield knocked off MAAC regular season champion Iona which means we will have to look for the incredible passing of Scott Machado in the NIT. I saw Fairfield down in Orlando and Ryan Olander is a legit big-man who can guard BCS-level teams in the NCAA tournament. His shot-blocking is one of the reasons Fairfield has one of the top defensive teams in the country. (If the name sounds familiar, Ryan’s brother Tyler plays for UConn.) Fairfield also has Boston College transfer Rakim Sanders, so for a four-seed in a mid-major league, this is a very intriguing team. And by beating Iona in the MAAC tournament, they earned my respect.

Tuesday

Big East Tournament Printable Bracket, March 6-10

The Big East tournament begins with two clear bubble teams in action. Connecticut and Seton Hall both finished with losing records in the Big East, and with Seton Hall ending the season with losses to Rutgers and DePaul, the Pirates desperately need to get things back on track at Madison Square Garden. Amazingly the tournament kicks off with Connecticut vs DePaul for the second year in a row. Last year UConn was in the exact same spot and a win over DePaul kick-started an 11 game winning streak for the Huskies.

A10 Tournament Printable Bracket, March 6, 9-11

Temple, St. Louis and Xavier are getting all the attention, but I get the feeling we are going to see a surprise team emerge in the A10. And it might even happen as an at-large. Right now 8 of the 14 schools in the league count as Top 100 wins and that means there are plenty of teams with decent resumes, and more quality wins to be had in the tournament. As an example, Dayton has 3 Top 50 wins and 5 more wins against 51-100, and while their 9-7 conference record doesn’t feel like an NCAA tournament team, with a run to the A-10 final, an at-large bid would suddenly become very plausible. UMass, St. Joe’s, La Salle, and Dayton all get started Tuesday night, and all are intriguing dark horse candidates.

- Penn plays at Princeton. If the Quakers win they will force a one-game playoff with Harvard. If the Quakers lose, Harvard wins the Ivy League’s auto-bid.

- Detroit plays Valparaiso for the Horizon league title. Surprisingly, Butler is not playing in this game and the two-time national runner-up will not be in the NCAA tournament this season. Detroit was my preseason pick to win the Horizon league but Valparaiso won the regular season title.

- The Summit league and Sun Belt will also crown tournament champions.

Wednesday

- The Big East tournament continues. West Virginia should be in the NCAA tournament (especially when you look at their non-conference resume), but if it comes down to a comparison with UConn, the last thing the Mountaineers want is a head-to-head loss to end the year. South Florida will also be in action in the evening session. South Florida’s Big East record is inflated because they played Pitt, Villanova, and Providence twice and none of the teams with winning records twice, but 12-6 in a major conference is still impressive. I’ve argued that you have to discount USF’s non-conference record due to the absence of multiple starters, and I think USF and Washington (out of the Pac-12) have very similar resumes when you put them side-by-side.

- The Big 12, Pac-12, and CUSA tournament also get started. Even though there are no real bubble implications on the opening day for these leagues, that just means that every team is fighting for its NCAA tournament life. Seeing UCLA play a one-and-done, win-or-go-home game for the NCAA tournament is always intriguing.

Big 12 Tournament Printable Bracket, March 7-10

Pac-12 Tournament, March 7-10

CUSA Tournament Printable Bracket, March 7-10

- The Big Sky, NEC, and Patriot Leagues all crown tournament champs.

Thursday

If you take time off work on Thursday and Friday during the NCAA tournament to watch basketball, I highly recommend you take off work this day. All the major conferences have 4 games going on, and it is impossible not to see some jaw-dropping results and buzzer beaters on this day. These conferences finally get started:

MWC Tournament Printable Bracket, March 8-10

Colorado St.’s RPI is inflated because they have only played four teams with an RPI over 200. They definitely have work to do starting Thursday afternoon.

ACC Tournament Printable Bracket, March 8-11

On Sunday, Virginia’s Darion Atkins blew a dunk with four seconds left in a tie-game, but Virginia held on to beat Maryland in OT. That was huge because it gave Virginia a bye in the ACC tournament and no team has ever won four games in four days in the ACC tourney. NC State and Miami (FL) open up on Thursday desperately needing wins if they want to make the NCAA field.

Big Ten Tournament Printable Bracket, March 8-11

Northwestern is the lone Big Ten bubble team, but the tournament broke in a favorable fashion for the Cats because they potentially face Michigan in the second round instead of Michigan St. or Ohio St. After losing in OT to the Wolverines in Evanston, Northwestern may need to get revenge to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. But first they have to beat Minnesota on Thursday.

SEC Tournament Printable Bracket

In the old divisional set-up 9-7 Alabama and 8-8 Mississippi St. would have earned byes and Florida and Vanderbilt would be playing on Day 1. But under the new standards, Mississippi St. plays a dangerous Georgia team and Alabama must open up against a South Carolina team that has nothing to play for and can play fast-and-loose.

- Texas vs Iowa St. in the Big 12 quarterfinal could be one of the best games of the weekend. The Longhorns desperately need another win over a quality team and Iowa St. has been playing incredible basketball lately. Baylor vs Kansas St. is equally good, if only to see if Baylor can get any momentum or if the early season undefeated streak is wasted.

- Washington, Cal and Arizona all lost this last weekend, so the Pac-12 quarterfinals are quite intriguing. None of these teams can afford to lose their opening game.

Friday

This might be the best night of basketball of the whole year. You won’t get nearly as many quality match-ups on any NCAA tournament day as you do on this day.

Saturday

This is usually what I call panic day. The ACC, Big Ten, SEC and A10 will almost certainly have an unexpected team in the semifinals, and if that team wins it all, the bubble shrinks by one slot.

- The Big 12, Big East, Pac-12, MWC, CUSA, MAC, WAC, SWAC, MEAC, Southland, American East and Big West all crown tournament champions.

Regarding the Big West, Long Beach St. has an impressive non-conference strength-of-schedule, but not a lot of quality wins in those games. They were rolling through the BW regular season, but suffered their first conference loss this last weekend. That may not seem like a big deal, but one of the best things Long Beach St. had going for them was the long winning streak, and now they better hope they do well in the Big West tournament.

Sunday

The ACC, SEC, A10, and Big Ten all crown tournament champions and the greatest hour in television, the NCAA selection show, arrives.

Yet Another College Basketball Column (Bonus Friday Edition)

In case you missed it, here are some highlights from Wednesday and Thursday’s conference tournament action:

Wednesday

Sad Truth

Big shots only get replayed if you win. Robert Morris sophomore Russell Johnson hit a game-tying three pointer to send the Northeast Conference Tournament Title game into OT. But Long Island won in OT. And so Russell Johnson’s shot will not be shown three times next week on CBS. (Personally, I am going to miss the Robert Morris mascot. I’ve seen him live in person twice in recent tournaments, and he seems oddly non-cartoonish. His apparel is much too accurate for a mascot, in my humble opinion.)

Quotable

Noted during the Marquette game: “He had a career high against Providence earlier this season. But that’s not surprising. Everyone has had their career high against Providence.”

“It was a mistake. But I make mistakes, the players make mistakes, and no matter how smart they think they are, my assistants definitely make mistakes. And those are three fantastic officials.” Mike Rice would probably feel a lot differently if Wednesday’s loss was going to cost Rutgers a slot in the NCAA tournament. But given his intensity on the sideline, Mike Rice earned a lot of respect for handling Wednesday’s referee error like a professional. (Mike Rice did note that if he had known St. John’s stepped out with 1.7 seconds left he might have grabbed one of the officials by the leg and held him on the court.)

Senior Heartbreak

Nebraska desperately needed to beat Oklahoma St. on Wednesday to keep their slim NCAA hopes alive. And the Cornhuskers came back from 14 points down in the second half. But trailing by one, with 8 seconds left, Nebraska’s Lance Jeter lost the ball in the lane, and could not get off a shot to try to win the game. And with that turnover, Nebraska’s NCAA hopes were squashed. The senior leader of the Cornhuskers lay on the ground in agony that his dream was over. But after his teammates could not move him, Oklahoma St. head coach Travis Ford was one of the first to grab Jeter as he got to his feet. And you could tell from Ford’s long conversation with Jeter that he had nothing but praise for the Nebraska point guard. Jeter might not have wanted to hear it at that moment, but if it was not for his fine play all season long, Nebraska would not have even been in the bubble discussion.

Senior Struggles

While everyone wants to talk about how Georgetown’s struggles are because of Chris Wright’s injury, senior forward Julian Vaughn has played his worst basketball of the season down the stretch. Vaughn has averaged eight points per game this year, but he has a total of 6 points in the last four Georgetown games, shooting 1 for 18 from the floor, and grabbing only 4 rebounds in the last two games.

Thursday

Senior Heroics

Northwestern senior Michael “Juice” Thompson scored a Big Ten tournament record 35 points in Thursday’s opening round win over Minnesota. Thompson has absolutely been on fire from three point range lately. In his last four games, he is 18 of 33 or 55% from deep. And when you combine lethal outside shooting with his ability to drive the lane, Thompson is making the most of his final days playing college basketball.

Senior Swan Song

But for every senior who make a difference positive or negative, there are millions of seniors who walk off the court without making a final mark, good or bad. Minnesota’s Blake Hoffarber once hit a crazy buzzer beater to beat Indiana in the Big Ten tournament. He is one of the greatest three-point shooters in Minnesota history. But on Thursday, with his team losing to Northwestern by a dozen, he hit a pair of free throws with 20 seconds left, and walked off the court for the final time. 30 or so Minnesota fans stood to celebrate, but there was no climax to his great career. (I’m assuming a team that has lost 10 of 11 should not play in any postseason.) Hoffarber’s walk off the court was symbolic of so many hard working players this season, who will make many great plays, only to see their careers end without a dramatic climax.

You call 35 a tournament record?  Try 43!

Washington St.’s Klay Thompson returned from his one-game suspension and made a Pac-10 tournament record eight three-pointers while scoring a Pac 10 tournament record 43 points. On a night when the Big Ten tournament point record fell, the Pac-10 tournament record fell in even more dramatic fashion. Thompson needed every one of his points to keep the Cougars in the game, but they still fell two points short of upsetting the Huskies. (Incidentally, leading by three points, Washington fouled with 2.4 seconds left, preventing Washington St. from getting a shot to tie the game. Announcers always call for the foul in that scenario, and Washington executed perfectly.)

Fear The Other Singler 

Oregon forward EJ Singler (Kyle Singler’s little brother) scored a career high 22 in Wednesday night’s win over Arizona St., and he followed it up with an even more impressive 24 points in Thursday night’s upset over UCLA. Back-to-back career nights is an impressive feat. This goes to prove you should never count against a Singler in March.

Comeback

Arkansas came back from 16 down to tie Tennessee in the final minutes, only to fail to complete the job. But Miami had more than enough to complete the comeback against Virginia. Trailing by 10 in the final minute, the Hurricanes scored 10 points in 29 seconds.

The best example of Virginia’s epic meltdown was when Miami missed a free throw with 15 seconds left only to see two Virginia defenders trip over the ball going out of bounds, without a single Miami player in sight. Or perhaps it was best represented by Virginia’s inbounds pass with 1.7 seconds left that was stolen by Miami and gave Miami a shot to win in regulation.  Eventually the Hurricanes prevailed in OT.  Tony Bennett has won a lot of games with an under-manned Virginia squad this year, but this is the type of epic March meltdown that can shorten a coaches’ career.

No Comeback

During the Michigan St. vs Iowa game they flashed a graphic that Michigan St. had not lost a single game all year after they had a seven-point lead. How is that even possible? Perhaps because Tom Izzo is one of the best game managers of all time. Even with the Spartans not playing well, you know his team is going to make smart plays in crunch time. And in a game where a loss would knock Michigan St. out of the NCAA tournament, the Spartans hung on for the close win.

On Tuesday, I mentioned that the Spartan defense struggled mightily in the last 11 games. And while I speculated that it might be the defense of Mike Kebler and Keith Appling whose playing time has increased since Korie Lucious left, the Spartan blog “The Only Colors” set me straight. Both Kebler and Appling are clearly better defenders than Lucious. And Dan Dakich agreed, calling Appling one of the best defenders in the Big Ten. Plus with Iowa down three in the final seconds, Mike Kebler made a fantastic defensive play to force an off-balance miss by Iowa.  Something went wrong with the Spartan defense after Lucious left, but it is not Appling and Kebler.

Doh!

Oklahoma St. and East Carolina were both playing their tournaments one-seeds on Thursday. And both teams were assessed technical fouls for taunting in the second half of the close games. East Carolina won in OT against UAB, and Oklahoma St. lost by a single point to Kansas.  But both plays were epic mistakes in close games.

Oklahoma St. was also called for multiple offensive fouls in the paint late. The Oklahoma St. post players simply lowered their shoulders and ran over the Kansas defenders. Oklahoma St. had a chance to win, but they just did not play smart down the stretch.

What a difference a day makes 

On Wednesday, Colorado trailed last place Iowa St. virtually the entire second half. They were seconds away from being knocked out of the NCAA field thanks to Darion “Jake” Anderson’s 30 points and incredibly hot shooting. But after surviving the Iowa St. upset bid, Colorado beat Kansas St. for the third time this season, and now it looks like Colorado has a solid chance of getting an at-large bid.

Fab Melo Sighting 

The Garden was a lot quieter than I expected on Thursday in the Syracuse – St. John’s game. Given how Syracuse fans always flood the Big East tournament and given St. John’s hometown advantage, I expected a raucous atmosphere. But I actually thought the New Mexico vs Colorado St. game sounded louder on TV.

Fab Melo was the Big East preseason rookie of the year, but he had several “DNP – coaches decision” lines late in the season. So of course, in the huge game at Madison Square Garden, Melo caught an inbounds pass under the basket, spun around in the lane, and made the go-ahead bucket. Melo had a career high 12 points, which is not much of a career high, but it still made all the difference in the win. Also, before you accuse Melo of being over-hyped by the media (like Josh Selby), it was actually Jim Boeheim who said in October that Melo was the most impressive freshman he had seen in a long time. Finally, we got some idea why.

And with Kemba Walker’s dramatic last second basket to beat Pitt, we now get a rematch of the six OT UConn-Syracuse game from Madison Square Garden a few years ago. Friday’s slate also includes three great afternoon games. Alabama vs Georgia, Clemson vs Boston College, and Michigan vs Illinois all have the feel of bubble elimination games, where the winner is comfortably in the NCAA field and the loser may be staying home.

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